Shows that analysis is primarily a human endeavor with only a minority of technical elements.

1. Albert Simard
Presented to
Canadian Knowledge Mobilization Forum
Mississauga, ON June 3-4, 2013
Competitive Intelligence:
An Island of Structure in an
Unstructured Ocean

2. Diversity of Perspectives
What analysts proposed What managers funded
What the data supported What users needed

3. Some Definitions
Analysis: Using deductive reasoning to differentiate, study, and
interpret data, information, or knowledge to deduce deeper or more
precise meaning or understanding.
Synthesis: Using inductive reasoning to integrate, study, and
interpret the collective functioning of many parts as a whole to infer
broader or higher-level meaning or understanding.
Intelligence: Acquiring, extracting, and interpreting
data, information, or knowledge to reveal underlying patterns about
a situation or issue of interest to an organization.
People tend to be good at either analysis
or synthesis; few are good at both.

4. Analysis is a Diverse Human Activity
Begins with a management decision to proceed.
Collects content from people and organizations.
Organizes content based on individual perspectives.
Classifies issues based on human understanding.
Selects analytical methods using expert knowledge.
Interprets results through cognitive reasoning.
Validates results through dialogue and collaboration.
Authorizes implementation with another decision.
Continues by monitoring, learning, and adapting.

5. Intelligence Framework
Direction
Collection
Organization
Analysis
Implementation
Larry Kahaner (1996)
M. C. Escher (1957)

6. Decision & Planning
Human elements
Start
Determine
Objectives
Decision
Approve Decision
direction need
Plan
Collaboration
Negotiation
planning apps
Identify
Need
Expertise
Collaboration
Work Service
Plan
Collaboration
Negotiation
planning apps.
Document
Office apps.
template
Analysis
Project
Store Repository

7. Decision Making
Work Service
reject
perspectives
Collaboration
modify?
Review
Schedule
Submit
Consider
Record of
Decision
Action
Collaboration
approve
End
Store
Decide
Repository
Recommend
Revise
Office apps.
template
Human elements

8. Spectrum of Evidence
mathematics, logic, proof
science, engineering, technology
statistics, data, facts, measurement
collaboration, validation, management
expertise, experience, judgement
opinion, perception, bias
belief, emotion, values
Quantitative (irrefutable)
Qualitative (no evidence)

9. Decision Maker Diversity
Accountable for actions
Situational pressure
Broader view than analysis
Organizational infrastructure
Depth of understanding
Involvement in planning
Confidence in results
Risk tolerance
Previous experience
Belief system
Emotions

10. Intelligence Framework
Direction
Collection
Organization
Analysis
Implementation
M. C. Escher (1957)

11. Supply and Demand
Supply: What can I
do with the
available data?
(Intelligence)
Demand: What data
do I need to solve a
problem?
(Regulation)

12. Environmental Monitoring*
*Ad Hoc
Cyberspace
Media
Published
Literature
Conferences Experience
Individuals
Ad hoc
Communities
of practice
Practitioners
Monitor
search
filter
scan
Research
Office apps.
template.
Organization
Document
Store Repository
Sharing,
Expertise
Web portal
Corroborate
Work Service
Human elements

13. Knowledge Mobilization*
IssueInternal sources
Infrastructure
Content
Environment
Resources
Culture
External sources
Agreements, Con
tent, Environmen
t, Resources, Soci
ety
AcquireCompile
internal Expertise
Sharing
Web portal
Search engine
external Expertise
Sharing
Web portal
Search engine
Organization
Process
Data mgt.
Content mgt.
Integrate
systems analysis
decision apps.
Document
Office apps.
templates
Interpret
Social structure
Collaboration
Expertise
Work Service
*Directed Human elements

14. Content Sources
Public Domain
Government Documents
Annual reports
Analyst reports
Public databases
Speeches
Broadcast media
Print media
Trade associations
World-Wide Web
Non-Public Domain
Change of status
Human intelligence
Trade shows
Ask employees
Ask clients
Observation
Aerial survey

15. Autonomous Sources
Diversity - mandate, jurisdiction, domain, function
Openness - security, privacy, control, property
Legal - accountability, responsibility, liability
Certification - inclusion, authenticity, reliability
Quality - completeness, timeliness, accuracy
Infrastructure - standards, networks, systems
For Supply, know the limitations;
for Demand, specify in advance

16. Source Diversity
Increased visibility, awareness, or influence
Seen as active and competent player
Feedback on user needs and applications
Leverage the value of organizational resources
Increase partnership and business opportunities
Organizational business or mandate
Influencing attitudes, opinions, or behavior
Advocating a position, agenda, or policy
Intervening in stakeholder or social activity
Passive
Active

17. Collecting Content
Content
Objects
Data
Information
Knowledge
Source
Jurisdiction
Organization
Function
Domain
Process
Physical
Biological
Environmental
Social
Economic
Organizational
Integration
Collect
Standardize
Web portal
Search engine
Expertise
Repositories
Web portal
Search engine
Expertise
Repositories
Collect
Standardize
Content Mgt.
Standards
Content Mgt.
Standards
Human elements

18. Integrating Content
Input
Synthesize
Analyze
Interpret
Store Repository
synthesis apps.
analysis apps.
Social structures
Expertise
Collaboration
Office apps.
templates
Document
Work Service
Analysis Human elements

19. Intelligence Framework
Direction
Collection
Organization
Analysis
Implementation M. C. Escher (1957)

20. Organizing Diversity
Library catalogues
Subject indexes
Taxonomies
Folksonomies
Automated methods
Artificial intelligence
Interdisciplinary issues
Linguistic issues
Authors and users often
classify content differently

21. Storing Content
Information technology and network infrastructure
Systems for archiving and managing content
Interfaces for entry, retrieval, & administration
Database, data warehouse, distributed databases
Information repository, information system
Knowledge repository, knowledge map
Physical libraries, digital libraries

22. Retrieving Content
Access to content
Browser interface
Search engine
Extraction tools
Manipulation tools
Assembly tools
Retrieval system

23. System User Diversity
Tools that are easy and intuitive use.
System interfaces that can be customized.
Systems that help people do their work.
Content that is easy to find and access.
Work processes that facilitate knowledge flow.
Knowledge flow that is primarily horizontal.
User diversity and flexibility are encouraged.
System design plays a key roll
in how people use systems.
User-centric design can double the use of a system

24. Intelligence Framework
Direction
Collection
Organization
Analysis
Implementation
M. C. Escher (1957)

25. Problem Space
Adapted from Kurtz and Snowden (2003)

26. Analysis Methods
Computer model
Decision analysis
Deterministic model
Dynamic model
Dynamic programming
Empirical model
Gamming model
Linear programming
Logical model
Mathematical model
Mechanistic model
Mental model
Nonlinear programming
Operations research
Physical model
Queuing model
Scenario analysis
Scientific model
Simulation model
Static model
Statistical model
Stochastic model
An inappropriate method may yield an
elegant solution to an irrelevant problem

27. Analyst Diversity
Objective Criteria
Problem space
Type of problem
Available techniques
Subjective Criteria
Awareness
Diversity
Skill
Experience
Expertise
Mental model
Belief
Good analysts are born, not made

28. Analysis Principles
• Resources are required:
time, effort, expertise, funding, capacity, technology, data,
knowledge
• Complexity is inherent: analysis is non-linear, involves
feedback, iterations, delays, and uncertainty
• Modeling is known: techniques are well-understood;
extensive literature for most disciplines
• Management perspectives:
understanding, trust, confidence, liabilities, risk, externalitie
s
• Implementation is uncertain: decision making, stakeholder
interests, unknown outcomes
Analysis combines science & computers; skill &
technique, judgement & experience; insight & intuition.

29. Analysis Process
28
Hierarchy
Relationships
Indicators
Review
Logic
Computation
Debugging
Review
Conceptualization
Construction
Execution
Attributes
Consistency
Review
Uncertainty
Representation
Review
Verification
Validation
Output
Content
Human elements

30. Intelligence Framework
Direction
Collection
Organization
Analysis
Implementation
M. C. Escher (1957)

31. 30
Implementation
Communication
Role
Governance
Accountability
Compatibility
Indivisibility
Situation
Outcome
Policies
Mandate
Infrastructure
Plan
Execution
LiabilityDecision
Legal
Social
Economic
Organizational
Interaction
Authority
Sharing
Collaboration
Negotiation
Competition
Awareness
Understanding
Agreement
Participation
Human elements

32. Competitive Intelligence
is an Island of structure
in an unstructured ocean
• Managers
• Sources
• Librarians
• System users
• Analysts
• Interaction
albert.simard@drdc-rddc.gc.ca