Food security has been a high priority in the socio-economic policy of Uzbekistan since the early years of independence. As a result of policies pursued, Uzbekistan has managed to achieve (and maintain thereafter) grain independence,1 and increase its per capita production of meat, milk, eggs, fruit and vegetables substantially enough to achieve self-sufficiency in basic foods. These accomplishments have been made possible mainly by institutional reforms, including the transformation of inefficient shirkats (agricultural cooperatives) into private farms, the development of private initiatives in food storage, processing and distribution, the establishment of the Arable Land Amelioration Fund to maintain and improve the quality of farmland, and so on. Ensuring food security, therefore, will require more complex approaches, policies and tools. Therefore, in order to ensure the nation’s food security in the long term more complex and comprehensive approaches and policies need to be implemented. Food security should be considered as an integrated issue incorporating three key dimensions: 1) food availability; 2) access to food; and 3) balanced and highquality nutrition. The principal benchmarks of food policy should address these three key areas.

1. Foreseeing the future Food Security in 2025
Center for Economic Research Tashkent, 2013

2. Uzbekistan’s approach to Food Security 1991-2013
Starting position in 1991:
-
Uzbekistan – a net importer of basic foods;
-
National agriculture heavily specialized in cotton-growing;
-
Hard currency revenues and reserves insufficient to close gap by imports;
-
Importance to strike a delicate balance to achieve a number of development goals  Food Security – one of the Priority issues for Government  Government takes a pro-active role in the food policy regulation process Policies employed:
-
Restructuring of the agricultural output mix;
-
Institutional reforms in agriculture;
-
Welfare improvement policies (price controls, social assistance to the target groups;)
-
National nutrition policy.
30%
53%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Flour fortification
Salt iodization
Covered
Not covered
National nutrition policy:
flour fortification & salt iodization
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1991
1995
2000
2005
2010
2011
2012
Grapes
Fruit and
berries
Melons and
watermelons
Vegetables
Potatoes
Cotton
Grain
Restructuring of the agricultural output mix:
structure of the sown area by types of crops(%)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1991
1995
2000
2005
2010
2011
2012
Rural enterprises by categories, %
Private farms
Dekhkan farms
Agricultural enterprises
Institutional reforms in agriculture: Structure of rural enterprises by categories, %
Structure of agriculture
Cotton
Ind
Cons
GDP structure,
Agric
Exp
Imp
Structure of trade
44
16,0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1995
2000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Welfare improvement policy: GDP per capita and poverty rate
GDP per capita(2000=100)
Poverty rate, %
Starting position in 1991

3. Uzbekistan’s Food Policy: Main Achievements
Achievements:
•
Grain independence as well as the self- sufficiency in basic foods is attained;
•
Steep rise in crop yield and output of meat, eggs, potatoes, fruit & vegetables;
•
Improved access to the basic foods;
•
Improved quality of nutrition, decline in child mortality and improvement in anthropometric indicators;
•
 Uzbekistan’s Food Policy proved its effectiveness and averted the threats to the nation’s food security;
•
Elements of Uzbekistan’s Food policy are now widely recognized and considered as internationally accepted best practices
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990
2012
Consumption of basic foods 1990 VS 2012 (kg/ year)
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
Uzbekistan
Low income countries
World
Central Asia
Gross per capita food production index:
Uzbekistan VS Other economies
(base 2004-2006)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1995
2012
Crop yield : 1995 VS 2012
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
Production of basic foods, ton per capita (left)
Share of food products in total imports, %
Per capita production of basic foods VS food imports (1995-2012)
34,6
26
18,9
14,2
10,9
10,6
65,3
32,2
33,1
29,2
21
21,4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2012
Infant mortality (per 1000 live births))
Maternal mortality (per 100 000 live births)
Maternal and infant mortality
(1990-2012)

4. How to sustain the achieved results: Main challenges
•
Current and expected trends in the global and national economy are posing new challenges for sustaining nation’s food security in the long term:
•
Population growth and change in the demographic pattern + growth of personal income transformations of the lifestyle and behavioral stereotypes  increased demand for food and transformed food consumption pattern
•
Aggravating problems of deteriorating land quality and diminishing water supply (due to the climatic and geopolitical factors)
•
Rise of world food prices  growing demand for food in the third world countries + limited food supply due to the climate factor and expanding biofuel production
•
To cope with the new challenges more comprehensive and complex approaches, methods and policy instruments need to be implemented
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
Index of land quality against GDP per capita (1993-2012)
Index of land quality
GDP per cap (th. USD)
70
70,5
71
71,5
72
72,5
73
73,5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
Expected longevity (right)
Birth rate
Demographic trends: population, natality, expected longevity
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1950
2015
2020
2030
2040
2050
Population (thous.p.), right
Share of population above 60
Share of population above 80
Average age
Transformation of the demographic pattern: Ageing
1328
1431
3271
571
1045
2169
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1990
2000
2010
GDP per capita (USD)
Growth of personal income: GDP and cash income per capita
0
50
100
150
200
250
Projections of price indexes for selected food categories
1990-92=100
2009
2015
2020

5. Complex approach to the Food Security: 3 key dimensions
Food Security
Balanced and high-quality nutrition
Food Availability
Access to food
•
Food Security should be considered as an integrated concept incorporating 3 key dimensions
•
The principal benchmarks of food policy should be determined in the three key areas:

Goal 1 – to ensure the availability of the required amount of food;

Goal 2 – to ensure the access to the essential foods for all the strata of the population;

Goal 3 – to maintain a balanced and high-quality nutrition in order to improve the nation’s gene pool.

6. Goal 1: Food Availability
•
Projections of food production and consumption in 2025  inertial development pattern will lead to the deficit of food and will not ensure the availability of the required amount of food Scenarios to cover the deficit:
•
Scenario 1 – sustaining a balance between the consumption and production of food by:
•
boosting productivity and crop yield;
•
expanding the sown area.
•
Scenario 2 – focus on production of foods in which Uzbekistan has a comparative advantage
•
Reallocate 42 thous. ha from grain to fruit and 60 th. ha from cotton to vegetables;
•
Increase crop yield of fruit twice, of vegetables – by 1,6 times.
Difference between amount of supply and demand, thousand tons
Crop yield, centners/hectare
Crop areas, thousand hectares
2012
2025
2012
2025
Grain
-1542.5
42.4
55.00
1472.3
1500
Vegetables
-1650
300
440
162.8
195.5
Fruits
-400.4
100
160
244.3
269.3
Cotton
Feed crops
Change in crop areas, thousand hectares
-311
311
Change in production, thousand tons
-839.7
11,184
Production costs, million USD
-327.6
103.8
Additional costs for meat and milk production, million USD
1,730.1
Change in cotton export revenue, million USD
-416.5
Potential benefits from decreased imports of meat and milk, million USD
3,909.2
Total gain, million USD
1,331
Demand, thousand tons
Production, thousand tons
Shortfall, thousand tons
Feed
15,614
4,430
11,184
Veget. VS Cotton
Fruit VS Wheat
Change in crop areas, thousand hectares
60.0
-60.0
42.00
-42,00
Increase in crop yield, centners/hectare
180.0
1.2
100.0
2,4
Change in production, thousand tons
5,810.4
-11.94
3,283.0
165.19
Change in production costs, billion UZS
1,154. 4
-59. 8
149.1
-26.5
Change in export revenue (import costs), million USD.
2,232.2
-256.4
4,866.8
-57.2
Additional investments, million USD
728.363
1,576. 7
Change in employment
125.81
-28.2
37.7
-1.68
Total gain, million USD
1,384.2
3,398.2
Additional jobs created, thousands
97.6
36
Scenario 1. Sustaining a balance between food production and consumption
Projections on supply and demand for forage crops
Scenario 2. Focus on production of crops with the comparative advantage
Consumption, production and deficit of food in 2025
(consumption =100%)

7. Goal 1: Food Availability: Recommendations to implement the scenarios
Effective implementation of either of the scenarios will require to:
1)
Improve the water management and water use system to produce the required amounts of food:
2)
Introduce advanced agro-technologies to raise the crop yield and livestock productivity 3) Step up research and development in agriculture to create more efficient local varieties of plants and breeds of animals and improve the quality of animal-husbandry technologies (90 mln. USD) 4) Expand and improve the quality of the veterinary services: in 2025 30,3 thousand veterinary personnel need to be present within the sector. (Now - 8,3 thousand specialists (27% of the required level))
Drip irrigation is applied for 1,012 mln ha
Investments of 4554 mln USD are required
30% less fertilizers are needed to grow crops
Production costs decrease
Productivity and total revenue increase by 40%
Land laser levelling technology is introduced
Reduction of mechanisation costs by 14%
Reduction of labor costs by 23%
Decrease of water use by 30%
Rise of productivity by 4 centners per ha
Profitability increase by 22% in a year and by 37% in 2 years

8. Goal 2: Food Accessibility
1)
Reformation of the agrarian institutions and optimization of the farm size by expanding the animal farms to 1000 heads of livestock, vegetable-growing farms - to 85 ha, fruit-growing farms - to 40 ha.
2)
Create an efficient system of procurements, distribution, processing and sales of agricultural food products a) Establish an efficient cold storage system for fresh and processed foods b) Develop an efficient system of food processing c) Develop the efficient sales, marketing and distribution system - Reformation of institutions in agriculture will require the shift from bazaar trade to the grocery store and supermarket trade to minimize transaction, transportation and administrative costs and ensure food safety
-
By 2025, 70% of retail food sales should take place in stores and supermarkets (now – 37%)   430 additional supermarkets need to be built by 2025
Size of animal farms is expanded to 1000 heads
Extra investments of 929,6 mln USD required
Due to the economies of scale productivity of farms increase by 35%
If the additional amount of meat is exported extra revenue will be 2,25 bln. USD
Ensure 5,8 cubic meters of cold storage facilities in 2025
30% decrease in losses due to the ineffective storage
Additional investment of 1,4 bln USD required
Total benefit of the nation = +2,095 bln. USD
Multiplier effect for other sectors 2,4 bln. USD
Access to food provided throughout all the seasons, seasonal volatility of food prices is smoothed
In 2025 Uzbekistan needs to become an upper middle income country
Transformation of lifestyle, behavioral stereotypes, structure and mode of nutrition
Annual benefits of 600 mln USD 67275 jobs generated
Share of processing should increase:
-
for meat from 6,9% to 30%
-
For milk – from 11% to 50%
-
For fruit and veg. – from 13,3% to 30%
-
For grapes – from 15% to 35%
Additional investment of 4,3 bln USD required

9. Goal 3: Balanced nutrition and Quality of Food
1)
Balanced and high-quality nutrition is essential to improve the nation’s gene pool
2)
If the balanced and high-quality diet is provided:
-
Health expenditures will decline by 1,68 bln. USD by 2025;
-
Benefits from improvement of the quality of human capital will account for 1,36 bln. USD; 3) Instruments to achieve these results are:
-
Implementation of programs to improve the nutrition of pregnant women, breast-feeding mothers and children under 5 (1,14 bln USD);
-
Introduction of dietary standards and guidelines according to the ISO-2000 (257,8 mln USD);
-
Raising public awareness and dissemination of the information on healthy lifestyle and appropriate nutrition.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Consumption per capita: actual consumption against norms, 2025 =100%
2025
2015
0
50
100
150
200
250
Developing economies
Developed economies
Uzbekistan
Consumption levels of the various food groups: Uzbekistan VS Other economies (kg per cap)

10. Focus on the regional context is important!
1)
Regional context should be taken into account while developing the National Food policies;
2)
Production, consumption and deficit of food products in other economies of the region are estimated 

Opportunities for the regional cooperation:
•
Exports of fruit to Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan
•
Exports of vegetables to Kyrgyzstan & Tajikistan
•
Imports of vegetable oil from Kazakhstan & Russia
•
Imports of grain from Kazakhstan  Processing of grain in Uzbekistan  consumption on the domestic market + exports to Afghanistan
0
50
100
150
200
Production
Deficit
Expected consumption in 2025
Uzbekistan: Consumption, production and deficit of food in 2025 (Scenario 2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
Production
Deficit
Expected consumption in 2025
Russia: Consumption, production and deficit of food in 2025
0
200
400
600
800
Production
Deficit
Expected consumption in 2025
Kazakhstan: Consumption, production and deficit of food in 2025
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Grain
Meat
Milk
Vegetables
Fruit
Production
Deficit
Tajikistan: Consumption, production and deficit of food in 2025
Expected consumption in 2025
0
50
100
150
200
Production
Deficit
Expected consumption in 2025
Kyrgyzstan: Consumption, production and deficit of food in 2025

11. Findings
•
The complex multidimensional approach to food security needs to be implemented;
•
There is a need for multi-optional scenarios and estimations;
•
Forecasting methods should go beyond the extrapolation, but rather take into account the transformative processes in all spheres;
•
Food Security Strategy needs to be integrated into the broader framework of the country development strategy;
•
The regional development context is important to develop the National Food Security Strategy.

12. Questions for discussion
•Are there any dimensions, critical issues which were omitted, should get considered in more detail?
•What approaches, methods and indicators need to be revised?
• What’s next? How can we jump to formulating the detailed Action Plan and Road Map? Suggested formats and models.
• Are there windows for synergies?

13. Thank you!
Resources in English: http://www.cer.uz http://transformation.cer.uz/ https://www.facebook.com/CER.Uzbekistan