The document summarizes a web-based weather monitoring system in Palermo, Italy that collects temperature and other data from several weather stations around the city. It uses the data to analyze trends like the urban heat island effect and creates forecasts using artificial neural networks. The forecasts showed good accuracy within a 1-2 degree range when predicting temperatures a week in advance for different areas around Palermo. Future work will focus on longer-term forecasting to study thermal comfort conditions in the city.

1. Session: Geographical Analysis, Urban Modeling, Spatial statistics A web-based autonomous weather monitoring system of the town of Palermo and its utilization for temperature nowcasting By: Giorgio Beccali, Maurizio Cellura, Simona Culotta, Valerio Lo Brano, Antonino Marvuglia UNIVERSITY OF PALERMO

5. Albunea Pizia Merlino Amaltea Meteo Palermo1 Morgana Cassandra

6. Area: 6.25 Km 2 Area: 13.5 Km 2 Area: 45.6 Km 2 Installed in March 2008 July, 10 th 2007 MeteoPalermo1 March, 4 th 2008 Albunea May, 21 st 2007 Pizia February, 20 th 2007 Amaltea November, 30 th 2006 Cassandra November, 13 rd 2006 Morgana September, 26 th 2006 Merlino Installation date Weather station

7. Data acquisition and web publishing system The Linux server of DREAM connects to the shared folder of this PC where the file is stored and copies it into a local folder. The procedure is automated by a bash script and is repeated for each weather station. Re-formatting of the ASCII file through a Perl script A web server (Apache) is connected with the database server (MySQL) and an http service is available over TCP/IP network . Graphs and data digest : publicly available. Statistic elaborations and data download : protected by login and password. Every 30 minutes each weather station automatically generates an ASCII file containing the last 336 collected data and immediately transfers it (via GSM) to a MS Windows PC located at the DREAM building, in which a proprietary software is installed.

8. Data publishing system

9. Data publishing system

10. Data publishing system

11. Data publishing system

12. Data publishing system

14. Statistical elaborations Elaborations edited by Dr. Valerio Lo Brano and Dr. Simona Culotta

27. Results Week August 25 th to 31 th 2007 Morgana Cassandra Amaltea Pizia MeteoPalermo1 Merlino Output One-step ahead prediction

28. Results Merlino station

29. Map of the average forecasted temperature for the week 25/08/07 – 31/08/07

30. Map of the average measured temperature for the week 25/08/07 – 31/08/07

32. Dr. Antonino Marvuglia e-mail: marvuglia@dream.unipa.it tel: +39 091 236 139 web site: www.dream.unipa.it Thank you for your attention

39. Forecasting performaces of the ARMAX (4,4,1) model for Merlino weather station Week 25-31 August 2007. Output One-step ahead prediction