Presentation given by Sir Mark Walport at the CSaP Distinguished Lecture on 17 October 2013.

1. Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science
and Policy
Sir Mark Walport, Chief Scientific Adviser to HM Government

2. There are three challenges relating to climate
change
Scientific
Communications
Policy
(Credit: Reuters)
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

3. The scientific challenge:
Observing, understanding, and predicting the
behaviour of a complex system
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

4. There are a number of natural influences on our
climate, operating on different timescales
Examples include:
• Seasonal cycles
• Multi-annual cycles (e.g. El Niño and La
Niña which recur every few years)
• Multi-decadal cycles (e.g. the Pacific
Decadal Oscillation (PDO) which causes
shifts in the climate every 20-30 years)
• Multi-century cycles (solar cycles range from
the 11 year cycle between sunspot minima
and sunspot maxima to much longer
Milankovitch cycles related to the Earth’s
orbital parameters, most obviously seen in
the 100,000 year ice age cycles)
(Credit: Met Office)
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

5. Ice core records show a close correlation between
past trends in atmospheric CO2 and temperature
(Credit: BAS)
(Credit: BAS)
Ice core records of temperature change in Antarctica and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations over the 800,000 years prior to the
start of the Twentieth Century (source: graphs NOAA, NCDC, and pictures of ice cores courtesy of Eric Wolff, Cambs)
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

6. Recent levels of atmospheric CO2 are higher
than at any time in the past 800,000 years
Records of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the past 800,000 years, including the Twentieth
Century (source: NOAA, NCDC)
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

7. In a warming world we would expect to see
consistent trends across the climate system
Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (2013)
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

8. Climate observations show clear trends
Inter-Governmental Panel
on Climate Change (2013)
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

9. The Inter-Governmental Panel on
Climate Change report on The
Physical Science Basis of Climate
Change recently concluded that
human emissions were the dominant
cause of warming since the midTwentieth Century
Global surface temperature anomalies from 1870 to 2010 and the natural
(solar, volcanic and internal (here related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation))
and anthropogenic factors (a warming component from greenhouse gases and
cooling component from most aerosols) that influence them (InterGovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013)
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

10. There is increasing confidence that human
emissions are increasing the risk of some types of
extreme events
A report by UK and US scientists looking at extreme events in 2012 found that half of the
extreme events studied displayed some evidence that human induced climate change was
a contributing factor.
(Credit: Todd Heisler/New York Times)
(Credit: Glyn Baker/CC-BY-SA-2.0)
(Credit: NASA)
USA heatwave, spring 2012
Iberian drought winter 2011/12
Arctic sea ice minimum, autumn 2012
(Credit: ABC News)
(Credit: FNDC)
(Credit: US Air Force)
Australian rainfall, summer 2012
New Zealand rainfall, winter 2011
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy
Australian rainfall, summer 2012
New Zealand rainfall, winter 2011
Inundation from Hurricane Sandy,
autumn 2012
Inundation from Hurricane Sandy, autumn 2012

11. Increased water availability in mid tropics and high latitudes
Water
Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid
low latitudes
0.4 – 1.7 billion
1.0 – 2.0 billion
1.1 – 3.2 billion
Additional people with
increased water stress
Increasing
amphibian
extinction
Ecosystems
About 20 – 30% species at
increasingly high risk of
extinction
Increased coral bleaching
Most corals bleached
Increased species range
shifts and wildfire risk
Low latitudes
Food
Crop
productivity
Major extinctions around the
globe
Widespread coral mortality
Terrestrial biosphere tends towards a net carbon
source as:
~40% of ecosystems
~15%
affected
Decreases for
some cereals
All cereals decrease
Increases for
some cereals
Decreases in some
regions
Mid to high latitudes
1°C
2°C
3°C
Temperature above pre-industrial
4°C
5°C
Adapted from IPCC AR4 (2007)

12. Increased damage from floods and storms
Coast
About 30% loss of
coastal wetlands
Additional
people at risk
of coastal
flooding each
year
0 – 3 million
2 – 15 million
Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory
and infectious diseases
Health
Increased morbidity and mortality from heatwaves, floods and droughts
Changed distribution of some disease vectors
Singular
events
Local retreat of
ice in
Greenland and
West Antarctic
Substantial burden on health services
Leading to
reconfiguration
of coastlines
worldwide and
inundation of
low lying areas
Long term
commitment to
several metres of
sea level rise due to
ice sheet loss
Ecosystem changes due to weakening of the
Atlantic Meridional Overturning circulation
1°C
2°C
3°C
Temperature above pre-industrial
4°C
5°C
Adapted from IPCC AR4 (2007)

13. Future temperature rise depends on cumulative
emissions
Source: Met Office, 2013 (adapted from IPCC AR5 (2013))
13 The findings of the IPCC and implications for science and technology in support of climate change and energy policy
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

14. The communications challenge:
Translating complex science for policymakers and the public
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

15. There is scientific consensus that the climate is
changing, but the public is divided
As far as you know, do you personally think that the world’s climate is changing? (in %)
Concern about climate change (in %)
Possible Explanations
• Global economic downturn
• Sceptic voices in the media
• Increasing climate fatigue
Source: Poortinga et al (2013)
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

16. Communicating complex information is
challenging
Excellent in one context, challenging in public engagement!
Switch off words….
Mitigation/adaptation, Discount rate, pH, Gigatonnes, Petagrams, Billion tonnes (of
carbon, carbon dioxide), PPM, eqCO2, Attribution, Negative emissions, Climate
sensitivity, Anthropogenic, Multi-decadal oscillation, Datasets, Urban heat island...

17. Visualisation is also a challenge
There are some very big
numbers involved...
Estimated global carbon emissions in 2012
(from fossil fuels and cement production)
close to 10 GtC
...and some very small ones
Annual global average sea level rise
~3mm yr-1
(Credit: Reuters)
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Climate and Climate Change: for Science andScience and Policy
Energy Change: Challenges Challenges for Policy

18. The policy challenge:
Responding to the risks
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

19. Carbon dioxide emissions from human activities
continue to rise
Fossil fuel
and cement
CO2
emissions
(GtC yr-1)
Annual CO2 emissions from human activities, estimated by the Carbon Dioxide
Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) (from IPCC, 2013)
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

20. CO2 has a long atmospheric lifetime
For any given
addition (or ‘pulse’)
of CO2 to the
atmosphere around
half is taken up by
the land and oceans
within a few
decades, the other
half will remain in the
atmosphere for
hundreds of years
100 (GtC)
5000 (GtC)
Decay of atmospheric CO2 pulse, as calculated by a range of coupled climate-carbon models
(Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, 2013)
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges forfor Science and Policy
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges Science and Policy
© Crown copyright Met Office

21. The UK currently produces less than 2% of global
emissions
<2%
Tonnes
CO2 per
capita
Source: The Carbon Map
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges forfor Science and Policy
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges Science and Policy

22. But looking at historical emissions tells a
different story
~6%
Tonnes
CO2 per
capita
Source: The Carbon Map
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges forfor Science and Policy
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges Science and Policy

23. What are the policy responses?
Mitigate
(Credit: Harvey McDaniel)
Adapt
(Credit: iStockphoto)
Suffer
(Credit: Reuters)
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

24. What do policy makers need to understand?
What are the consequences of
unmitigated climate change?
(Credit: Capt'Gorgeous/
CC-BY-2.0)
What do the public think?
(Credit: TckTckTck)
What are the existing, and new,
technological opportunities?
(Credit: efergy)
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges forfor Science and Policy
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges Science and Policy

25. A number of key
national risks can be
expected to increase in
likelihood and impact as
a result of climate
change
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

26. More extreme weather could impact on the global
supply and price of commodities
FAO Food Price Index
The record-breaking heat
wave and drought in Russia
in 2010 caused extensive
wildfires, thousands of
deaths, and grain harvest
was reduced by 30%.
There were restrictions on
grain exports and the global
wheat price rose rapidly.
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

27. Risks from climate disruption in other parts of the
world may be just as significant for the UK
• The UK is part of a highly interdependent global economic system: Direct investment
abroad by UK companies (in 2011) stood at £1.1 trillion. The total level of direct
investment in the UK by overseas companies at the end of 2011 was estimated at £766
billion.
• Climate disruption will impact on UK overseas interests, and the flow of natural resources
and commodities to the UK
• UK business has strengths and skills that will help with mitigation and adaptation
activities overseas, if opportunities are taken.
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

28. The policy challenge: Viewing difficult issues
through lenses
(Credit: Thomas Shahan/CC BY-NC-ND-2.0)
Parkhill et al, Transforming the Energy System – Public Values, Attitudes and Acceptability, 2013 (UKERC)
28 Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy and Policy
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science

29. Energy policy needs to take account of public
values
Reducing the use of
finite resources
Avoiding waste
Efficient
Reducing overall
levels of energy use
Environmental
protection
Availability and Affordability
Reliability
Naturalness and
Capturing opportunities
Nature
Social Justice
Fairness, Honesty &
Transparency
Long-term
trajectories
Safety
Autonomy and Freedom
Interconnected
Improvement and quality
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy
Choice and Control
(Source: Cardiff University, 2013)

30. De-carbonisation can bring many co-benefits
•
Energy security
•
Reduced pollution
•
Improved health outcomes
•
Reduced fossil fuel import
bills
•
Reduced risk of energyrelated water stress
•
Community benefits
(Credit: AP)
(Credit: PD)
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges forfor Science and Policy
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges Science and Policy

31. www.gov.uk/2050-pathways-analysis

32. There are different possible scenarios which meet the
UK’s legislated emissions reduction targets
Cost optimised
Higher renewables; more efficient
Higher nuclear; less efficient
Higher CCS; more bioenergy
Energy saving
per capita
Electricity
Demand
Energy saving
per capita
Electricity
Demand
50% reduction
470 TWh
54% reduction
530 TWh
31% reduction
610 TWh
43% reduction
490 TWh
33 GW nuclear
18 GW wind
28 GW CCS
27 GW other renew
33 GW gas
16 GW nuclear
82 GW wind
13 GW CCS
14 GW solar
10 GW marine
24 GW back-up gas
75 GW nuclear
20 GW wind
2 GW CCS
2 GW hydro
11 GW back-up gas
Heating mix of heat
pumps, resistive heat,
biomass pellets,
district heat
7.7m SWIs, 8.8m
CWIs, 100% houselevel heating
systems
5.6m SWIs, 6.9m
CWIs, 90% house-level
heating systems, 10%
network-level
5.6m SWIs, 6.9m
CWIs, 50% houselevel heating systems,
50% network-level
75% ULEVs, unclear
on modal shift
100% ULEVs, high
modal shift
80% ULEVs, 20%
ICEs, low modal
shift
65% ULEVs, 35%
ICEs, medium
modal shift
Medium growth,
over half of
emissions captured
by CCS
Medium growth,
48% of emissions
captured by CCS
Medium growth, 0%
of emissions
captured by CCS
Medium growth,
48% of emissions
captured by CCS
~350 TWh of
bioenergy, low
ambition on land
mgmt
181 TWh of
bioenergy, low
ambition on land
mgmt
461 TWh of
bioenergy, high
ambition on land
mgmt
471 TWh of
bioenergy, medium
ambition on land
mgmt
Bio energy
/ land use
Electricity
Electricity
Demand
Buildings
Energy saving
per capita
Transport
Electricity
Demand
Industry
Energy saving
per capita
CO2
20 GW nuclear
34 GW wind
40 GW CCS
2 GW hydro
No back-up gas

33. Meeting any one of these scenarios presents
challenges
90.00
80.00
50.00
40.00
30.00
20.00
10.00
0.00
DECC Energy Trends 2013
GW
60.00
~10GW
5,545 turbines
higher renewables
scenario
Installed: ~10GW
33
NUCLEAR
~10GW
9 plants
higher nuclear
scenario
Installed: ~10GW
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy
Digest of United Kingdom
energy statistics 2013
70.00
Digest of United Kingdom energy statistics 2013
WIND
CCS
CO2
higher CCS
scenario
Installed: 0GW

34. Do we need another Apollo or Manhattan project?
• The challenge is at
least as great
• Major projects are
required, with funding
on a large scale
(Credit: PD)
•
However, both had a well-defined
single, technological objective
•
The objective now is a planetary
one and no single roadmap can
be drawn
•
(Credit: NASA)
Need to take the best elements of the approach
taken in these projects and apply them to a more
complex scenario
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges forfor Science and Policy
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges Science and Policy
(Credit: NASA)

35. Challenges and opportunities: high nuclear
scenario
Challenges
Opportunities
High nuclear scenario
requires 75 GW nuclear online by 2050 – more that
seven times the current
capacity
The UK is already a
world leader in fusion
technologies, and could
be at the forefront of
developing other new
technologies
Requires:
• new sites
• storage solutions
• new technologies
(Credit: Stacey Peak Media)
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Energy change: science to policy issues
Climate and Climate Change: Challenges forfor Science and Policy
Energy and Climate Change: Challenges Science and Policy

36. Challenges and opportunities: high renewables /
high efficiency scenario
Challenges
Renewable
technologies need to
be cheaper
Scale of wind
deployment a real
challenge – 82GW is
over 16,000 5MW
turbines
Opportunities
Energy efficiency can be a
win-win, reducing demand =
lower emissions and lower
fuel bills
Take up of electric
vehicles is low at
present. Needs
considerable new
supporting
infrastructure
High export potential – UK
is at the forefront of
research in a number of
areas, including innovation
in wind turbines and next
generation solar
Requires significant
behaviour change
(Credit: edupic)
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Energy change: science to policy issues
Climate and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

37. Challenges and opportunities: high CCS / high
bioenergy scenario
Challenges
Opportunities
Full scale CCS remains
unproven so far
CCS of global interest,
allows fossil fuels to
continue as part of the
energy mix – high
export potential
Land use and sustainability
concerns relating to high
bioenergy scenario
UK is one of the first
countries with a full
scale test planned potential first-mover
advantage
Bioenergy and CCS
together could actually
reduce net emissions
(Credit: Bellona)
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

38. Which ever policy options are adopted there will
be a cost, whether now or later….what price a
grandchild?
(Credit: RoHerreraP/CC-BY-2.0)
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Energy and Climate Change: Challenges for Science and Policy

39. @uksciencechief
www.bis.gov.uk/go-science
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