3. Assured Guaranty
File: 4156_Bloomberg Q1 Muni Market Quarterly Statbook
Insertion: 4.XX.2013
Due: 4.22.13
Size: 7.5'' X 8.8”
NO ONE CAN
PREDICT THE FUTURE
BUT $12 BILLION
CAN GUARANTEE IT.
With over a quarter century of
experience, and more than $12 billion
in claims-paying resources, Assured
Guaranty is the proven leader in
municipal bond insurance.
And as owners of our insured
Harrisburg, PA or Stockton, CA
bonds can attest, investors’principal
and interest payments are paid on
schedule, even when an issuer defaults.
We’ve successfully reduced
financing costs for the 11,000 municipal
credits in our portfolio because we offer
investors greater market liquidity, the
comfort of our ongoing surveillance,
and the safety of our unconditional,
irrevocable guaranty.
In times like these, investors
crave certainty. At Assured Guaranty,
certainty is precisely what we deliver.
Owners of Harrisburg bonds we’ve insured haven’t spent the last four years in workout talks.When you’re paid in full, there’s nothing to work out.
AssuredGuarantyMunicipalCorp.andAssuredGuarantyCorp.(andaffiliates),NewYork,NewYork.MoreatAssuredGuaranty.com
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
04.24.13 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Municipal Market 3
4. Interest Rates
Tax-Exempt/Treasury Ratio Surged Over 100% Before Tax Day as Yields Jumped
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The 10-year muni-Treasury ratio rose to
a 2013 high in March, as investors began
withdrawing money from municipal mutual
funds to pay tax bills before the April 15 fil-
ing deadline. The lack of demand pushed
yields on state and local government
bonds higher than those on their federal
counterparts. The ratio was more than
100 percent for 13 straight trading days
through March 29, the longest stretch
since September, Bloomberg data show.
A higher ratio means AAA munis are rela-
tively cheap to U.S. Treasuries. The gauge
fell to 86 percent on Jan. 25, the lowest
this year. The average ratio since 2001 is
about 92 percent.
— Brian Chappatta
Ten-year AAA municipal bond yields
rose to the highest in 11 months on
March 14, as investors withdrew money
from municipal mutual funds “ahead of
schedule,’’ according to Chris Mauro
at RBC Capital Markets. In 2012, yields
rose in March, peaking on March 22,
Bloomberg data show. In 2011, yields
halted their rise on April 8. In 2010,
yields reversed direction on April 7.
“Seasonal municipal fund outflows
typically materialize in the second and
third weeks of April, not in early March,’’
Mauro wrote. “A strong equity market,
continued low muni yields, and a fear
of rising interest rates have combined
to diminish the attractiveness of the
municipal asset class.’’
— Brian Chappatta
Muni/Treasury Ratio Rises Above 100% During Tax Season
10-Year Muni Yields Climb to 11-Month High in March
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04.24.13 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Municipal Market 4
85
90
95
100
105
110
1/1/13 1/15/13 1/29/13 2/12/13 2/26/13 3/12/13 3/26/13
Muni/TreasuryRatio
Date
Muni/Treasury Ratio Rises Above 100% During Tax Season
Muni/Treasury Ratio
Source: Bloomberg
1.65
1.7
1.75
1.8
1.85
1.9
1.95
2
2.05
2.1
1/1/13 1/15/13 1/29/13 2/12/13 2/26/13 3/12/13 3/26/13
Yield(%)
Date
10-Year Muni Yields Climb to 11-Month High in March
Yield
Source: Bloomberg
5. Underwriters
Q1 2013 Position Underwriter Issuance ($billions) % Issuance
1 JP Morgan 12.52 16.7
2 Bank of America Merrill 11.19 14.9
3 Citigroup 7.93 10.6
4 Morgan Stanley 4.19 5.6
5 Wells Fargo Bank 4.19 5.6
6 RBC Capital 3.81 5.1
7 Barclays 2.86 3.8
8 Robert W. Baird 2.66 3.6
9 Stifel Nicolaus 2.64 3.5
10 Goldman Sachs 2.20 2.9
Total 74.96
*excludes derivatives & notes, full credit to bookrunning manager
Overall Muni Market 2013: Top 10 Underwriters Numbers run as of April 17, 2013
Q1 2013 Position Underwriter Issuance ($billions) % Issuance
1 Bank of America Merrill 3.56 19.2
2 JP Morgan 3.17 17.1
3 Citigroup 3.13 16.8
4 Wells Fargo Bank 1.53 8.2
5 Robert W. Baird 1.42 7.7
6 Morgan Stanley 0.56 3.0
7 Janney Montgomery 0.51 2.7
8 Raymond James 0.46 2.5
9 Goldman Sachs 0.38 2.1
10 Hutchinson Shockey 0.36 1.9
Total 18.57
*excludes derivatives & notes, full credit to bookrunning manager
Competitive Muni Market 2013: Top 10 Underwriters Numbers run as of April 17, 2013
Q1 2013 Position Underwriter Issuance ($billions) % Issuance
1 JP Morgan 9.35 16.6
2 Bank of America Merrill 7.63 13.5
3 Citigroup 4.80 8.5
4 Morgan Stanley 3.63 6.4
5 RBC Capital 3.48 6.2
6 Barclays 2.77 4.9
7 Stifel Nicolaus 2.57 4.6
8 Wells Fargo Bank 2.66 4.7
9 Jefferies 1.83 3.2
10 Goldman Sachs 1.82 3.2
Total 56.39
*excludes derivatives & notes, full credit to bookrunning manager
Source: Bloomberg
Negotiated Muni Market 2013: Top 10 Underwriters Numbers run as of April 17, 2013
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04.24.13 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Municipal Market 5
6. Issuers
Issue State
Sale
Date
Book Running Lead Manager(s)
Sale
Method
Deal Size
($millions)
Bloomberg Market Sector
California-Various Purpose CA 3/11/13 JP Morgan/Goldman Negotiated 2,472 General Obligation
New Jersey Econ Dev Auth-Sch Facs NJ 1/21/13 Bank of America Merrill Negotiated 2,253 Appropriations
University of California Regents CA 2/25/13 JP Morgan/Bank of America Merrill Negotiated 1,594 Higher Education
New Jersey Turnpike NJ 3/18/13 JP Morgan Negotiated 1,400 Toll Highways/Bridges/Tunnels
JobsOhio Beverage System Liquor OH 1/28/13 JP Morgan/Citigroup Negotiated 1,106 Miscellaneous Tax
New York City Transitional Finance NY 3/18/13 Wells Fargo/Citigroup Negotiated 1,001 Income Tax
New York City NY 2/25/13 Morgan Stanley/JP Morgan Competitive 973 General Obligation
New York State Urban Dev NY 3/11/13 Wells Fargo/JP Morgan Negotiated 843 Income Tax
Los Angeles CA Unif Sch Dist-TRANS CA 2/18/13 JP Morgan Negotiated 780 School District
Arizona Transportation Board AZ 1/14/13 JP Morgan Negotiated 715 Nontoll Highway/Bridge/Tunnel
Source: Bloomberg
Largest Debt Issuances Q1 2013
Sales Rose Steadily Throughout First Quarter, With 40 Percent for Refunding
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
January February March
Q1 2012 Q1 2013
Source: Bloomberg
<2
11%
2-2.999
14%
3-3.999
17%
4-4.999
18%
5-5.999
39%
>=6
1%
Source: Bloomberg
During the first quarter of 2013, states
and municipalities sold $85.3 billion in
municipal securities, including long-term
and short-term fixed- and variable-rate
issuance, derivatives and notes. This was
up from the $80 billion they sold during
the first quarter of 2012. Variable-rate
sales accounted for $10.1 billion of the
total in 2013, down from $12.5 billion last
year. Approximately 40 percent was used
for refunding. With two insurers now com-
peting for business, Assured Guaranty
and Build America Mutual, along with a
cameo appearance by Berkshire Hatha-
way, about $2.4 billion carried insurance.
— Alberto Fuertes
The pie chart shows coupon dispersion
in the municipal market during the first
quarter of 2013. Coupons of between 5
percent and 5.99 percent made up 39
percent of all fixed-rate coupons, with
4s right behind at 18 percent. During the
first quarter of 2012, 5s also accounted
for 39 percent of all coupons. High-yield
coupons, more than 6 percent, made up
2 percent of the market during the first
quarter of 2012, only 1 percent this year.
— Alberto Fuertes
Monthly Issuance, in Billions
Coupon Dispersion, Fixed-Rate Coupons
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04.24.13 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Municipal Market 6
7. Investors
Ticker Name Management Company
1st
Quarter
of 2012
Assets
Expense
ratio
MGMT
Fee
NHMRX US Nuveen High Yield Municipal Bond Fund Nuveen Fund Advisors/USA 2.14 9304.04 0.65 0.52
GHYIX US Goldman Sachs High Yield Municipal Fund Goldman Sachs Asset Management LP 2.09 3890.97 0.57 0.53
MMHIX US MainStay High Yield Municipal Bond Fund New York Life Investment Management LLC 1.83 1092.40 0.6 0
HYMIX US Lord Abbett Municipal Income Trust - Lord Abbett High Yield Municipal Bond Fund Lord Abbett & Co LLC 1.59 2267.78 0.6 0.48
PHIZX US Prudential Muni High Income Fund Prudential Investments LLC 1.47 779.18 0.62 0.5
WYMHX US Ivy Municipal High Income Fund Ivy Investment Management Co 1.43 1456.22 0.7 0.52
ACTDX US Invesco High Yield Municipal Fund Invesco Advisers Inc/USA 1.43 7243.04 0.6 0.51
DVHIX US Delaware National High-Yield Municipal Bond Fund Delaware Management Co 1.25 544.29 0.6 0.55
EIHYX Eaton Vance High Yield Municipal Income Fund Boston Management & Research 1.12 761.57 0.61 0.54
PTFYX Putnam Tax-Free High Yield Fund Putnam Investment Management LLC 1.07 1164.29 0.58 0.49
Source: Bloomberg
Ticker Name Management Company
1st
Quarter
of 2012
Assets
Expense
ratio
MGMT
Fee
NCHRX Nuveen California High Yield Municipal Bond Fund Nuveen Fund Advisors/USA 1.40 362.69 0.68 0.58
RMUYX Oppenheimer Rochester Fund Municipals OFI Global Asset Management Inc 1.43 8415.86 0.73 0.46
ONYYX Oppenheimer Rochester AMT-Free New York Municipal Fund OFI Global Asset Management Inc 1.20 1471.40 0.53 0.46
BCHIX American Century California High-Yield Municipal Fund American Century Investment Management Inc 1.01 771.82 0.3 0.3
NCSPX Nuveen California Municipal Bond Fund Nuveen Fund Advisors/USA 1.14 718.73 0.62 0.52
OCAYX Oppenheimer California Municipal Fund OppenheimerFunds Inc 0.99 1760.80 0.65 0.45
SGCAX Wells Fargo Advantage California Tax-Free Fund Wells Fargo Funds Management LLC 0.88 823.88 0.55 0.34
PCIZX Prudential California Municipal Income Fund Prudential Investments LLC 0.98 252.52 0.67 0.5
BCLIX American Century California Long-Term Tax-Free Fund American Century Investment Management Inc 0.81 430.97 0.27 0.27
NMVAX Nuveen Virginia Municipal Bond Fund Nuveen Fund Advisors/USA 0.73 457.16 0.61 0.51
Source: Bloomberg
Mutual Fund Performance — National Open End Funds
Mutual Fund Performance — Single State Open End Funds
Investors Who Want Yield Have to Speculate on Future of Industry
0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2%
Water and Sewer
Local General Obligation
Education
State General Obligation
OVERALL INDEX
Electric
Special Tax
Transportation
Leasing
Hospital
Housing
Resource Recovery
IDR/PCR
Tobacco
Sector
Riskiest Muni Bonds Extend Rally Into 2013
Return
Source: Barclays Plc.
The lowest-rated municipal bonds
continued to provide the biggest returns
in the first quarter of 2013, according to
data from Barclays Plc. The company’s
best-performing tobacco bond index has
an average rating quality of A2 to A3 from
Moody’s, the second-lowest among the
indexes. The second-best performing sec-
tor -- industrial development and pollution
control revenue bonds -- has the lowest
rating of all indexes at A3 to Baa1. The ex-
tra yield demanded on BBB debt relative
to AAAs declined to 0.96 percentage point
on March 19, the narrowest since 2008,
Bloomberg data show.
— Brian Chappatta
Riskiest Muni Bonds Extend Rally into 2013
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
04.24.13 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Municipal Market 7
8. Assured Guaranty
File: 4519_AG Illin4Deal_BloombMYSAK.indd
Insertion: 4.XX.2013
Due: 4.17.13
Bloomberg/Mysack
PROVEN STRENGTH, PROVEN VALUE.
These selected transactions are among the more than 300 new issues and secondary market positions we have
guaranteed so far this year, representing $1.8 billion of insured par. With over a quarter century of experience
and $12 billion in claims-paying resources, Assured Guaranty is the proven leader in municipal bond insurance.
Assured Guaranty Municipal Corp. and Assured Guaranty Corp. (and affiliates), New York, New York. More at AssuredGuaranty.com
$450,000,000
General Obligation Bonds
Series A of April 2013
STATE OF ILLINOIS
$180,000,000
sold with insurance from
BofA Merrill Lynch
Prager & Co., LLC CastleOak Securities, L.P.
$1,400,000,000
Turnpike Revenue Bonds
Series 2013A
NEW JERSEY TURNPIKE AUTHORITY
$55,030,000
sold with insurance from
J.P. Morgan
BofA Merrill Lynch Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Barclays Morgan Stanley Piper Jaffray
Ramirez & Co., Inc. Wells Fargo Securities
$248,325,000
Tax-Exempt Senior Lien Revenue Refunding Bonds
Series 2013A
ALAMEDA CORRIDOR
TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY
$92,685,000
sold with insurance from
Stone & Youngberg, BofA Merrill Lynch
a Division of Stifel Nicolaus
$50,730,000
Department of Human Services
Lease Revenue Bonds
(Greystone Park Psychiatric Hospital Project)
Series 2013A
NEW JERSEY HEALTH CARE
FACILITIES FINANCING AUTHORITY
$41,345,000
sold with insurance from
RBC Capital Markets
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
04.24.13 www.bloombergbriefs.com Bloomberg Brief | Municipal Market 8