Anita Milman Wednesday 13 July 2011 Conflict and Transboundary Water Issues

1. Transboundary Waters
Conflict and Cooperation
Anita Milman, University of East Anglia
July 13, 2011
1
Environmental Conflicts Summer Schoo

2. OVERVIEW
• Shared Water Resources
• Water Wars: Conflict & Cooperation
• Empirical Analysis: Analyzing History
• Theory: International Relations
• Law, Negotiations & Agreements
• Beyond ‗the State‘
• Shared Water in a Changing World
2

3. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Water is a shared resource
263 International
River Basins
http://www.transboundarywaters.orst.edu/
3

4. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Groundwater flows unseen across
political boundaries
4
http://www.whymap.org

5. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Water is scarce,
poorly distributed in time & space
http://www.waterandnature.org/eatlas/html/gm16.html
5

6. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Withdrawals are likely to increase
Alcamo et al. 2007
Change in withdrawals between 1995 & 2050 under the B2
climate scenario & accounting for population growth, income,
6
electricity production and water efficiency effects

7. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Future wars over water (?)
―If the wars of the twentieth century were fought over oil,
the wars of this century will be fought over water.‖
– World Bank
―Fierce competition for fresh water may well become a
source of conflict and wars in the future‖
– The United Nations Secretary General, Kofi Annan
―Water shortages will grow even more serious; the stuff of
future wars. . . . With 3.5 billion people affected by water
shortages by 2050, conditions are ripe for a century of
water conflicts.‖
– The Economist
7
(Quotes collected in Dinar et al. 2008)

8. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Issues that cause tension
• Quantity
– Navigation, flow, consumptive use, flooding
• Timing
• Quality
– Salts, nutrients, turbidity, toxics
• Infrastructure
– Dams, electricity generation, treatment plants
8

9. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Is water a cause or a symptom?
• A cause of conflict and tensions
• Control as military or political goal
– defining wealth or power
• Used as a tool in conflict
– Used to destroy or harm the enemy
• A target of conflict
– Marks/defines the boundary
9

10. A Conflict - Cooperation Continuum
the Water Event Intensity Scale
10
Yoffe et al. (2003)

11. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Transboundary Water
Interaction NexuS Matrix
11
Zeitoun, M. and N. Mirumachi (2008)

12. Cooperation is more frequent
than conflict over water
Between 1918 and 1994, more than 200 treaties
were signed; yet only 37 reported cases of inter-
state violence (mostly related to Israel).
Transboundary Freshwater Dispute Database
9% 1%
145 treaties analyzed
4%
Hydroelectric Power
4%
Water Consumption
39%
6% Industrial Use
Navigation
Pollution
Flood Control
Fishing
12
37%

13. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Cooperation is not always
without conflict
(Hydro) hegemony: Dominance of one
social group over another, such that the
ruling group—referred to as a hegemon—
acquires some degree of consent from the
subordinate, without necessarily using force
13

14. Conflict and Cooperation :
Identifying Risk Factors via
Empirical Analysis
14
Pics: Wolf et al 2003

15. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Factors that increase CONFLICT
• Water and border disputes coincide
• Disruptions of anthropogenic origin
• Scarcity & variability in availability
• Rate of change in the basin exceeds
adaptive capacity
15

16. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Factors that increase COOPERATION
• Scarcity & variability in availability
• Linkages
• Collective action problem
16

17. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Factors posited as important,
relation to conflict undetermined
– Population density
– Overall GDP
– Government type (democracy)
– Overall relations between countries
17

18. Theoretical Perspectives
18

19. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
International relations theories
Sovereignty of states
Anarchical international structure
Realism
• States are in
competition
• Goal is military
security and survival
• Power is key
• Relative gains 19

20. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
International relations theories
Sovereignty of states
Anarchical international structure
Liberalism
• Underlying harmony
in interests
• Mutual gain from
cooperating
• Institutions are key
• Absolute gains 20

21. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Can economics promote cooperation?
• Optimum basin development
– Moving from RIGHTS to NEEDS…to
INTERESTS
• ‗Benefit Sharing‘ Assumes can transform
from ‗win-lose‘ to ‗win-win‘
– Economies of scale
– Existing inefficiencies
– Heterogeneities among countries create
possibilities for trade-offs
21

22. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
―Sharing‖ the gains
• Compensation or side payments
– Rare in exchange for water
– More frequent for infrastructure
• How to allocate gains?
– May reflect an implicit agreement about
property rights
– May also reflect power dynamics
22

23. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Cooperation through issue linkage
• Can reduce need for side payments
• Provides enforcement mechanisms
• Most useful if asymmetry between the
countries on the linked issues
• May be difficult to renegotiate terms
23

24. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Beyond Utility Max & Power Positioning
• Sovereignty
• Security
– National existence, self-sufficiency
• Image
• ‗Ethos‘ of water
– Use, interbasin transfers,
– Identity, spiritual values, culture, etc
– Importance of water in political rhetoric
24

25. LAW, NEGOTIATIONS & TREATIES
25

26. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
International water law
• Customary law
• Bi- or multi-lateral treaties
• General principles and conventions
– 1911 Madrid Declaration
– 1966 Helsinki Rules
– 1991 International Law Commission (draft)
– 1997 UN Convention (not ratified)
26

27. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Principles for allocation
• Absolute sovereignty
• Absolute territorial integrity
• Optimum development of the basin
• Community of property
(Equitable and reasonable use)
• No appreciable harm
27

28. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Reasonable and Equitable Use
Article 10 – 1997 UN Convention
1. Geographic, hydrographic, hydrologic,
climatic, ecological
2. Social and economic needs
3. Effects of the use on another state
4. Existing and potential uses
5. Conservation, protection, development
and economy
6. Availability of alternatives
28

29. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Types of TB River Agreements
• Flow allocation or restrictions
• Water quality improvements or regulations
• Boundary demarcation
• Infrastructure development & use
• Process management
– Data sharing
– Technical and financial cooperation
– Informing and prior consent
– Joint management 29

30. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Incentives to Reach an Agreement
• Risk of breakdown
– Default value/ reservation utility
– Impatience or temporal issues
– Credible threats
• Reliable expectations
• Third-party involvement
30

31. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Interpretation  intractibility
• Analytic uncertainty: lack of knowledge of
the expected outcomes
– What will be the result
• Framing ambiguity: different perspectives
on a problem and its solution
– Scarcity/wastefulness? Dykes/floodplains?
• Incommensurability: irreconcilable values
and unacceptable tradeoffs
– Ecosystems vs livelihoods 31

32. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Barriers to Reaching an Agreement
• Complexity
– Technical
– In definition of roles and responsibilities
• Wider (non-water) considerations
– Conversely, water may help with those
disagreements
• Too many players to form ‗grand‘-coalition
32

33. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Two-levels Impact Negotiations
• Bureaucratic policy processes
– internal power relations within the bureaucracy
– Competing domestic interest groups
• Executive policy process
– degree of involvement of the chief executive in
water matters
• Residual policy processes
– pork barrel, coalition policies that use water as
a political weapon
33
(LeMarquand 1990)

34. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Elements of successful treaties
• Self-enforcing or binding agreements
– Incentives to follow through on commitment
• Flexiblity
– adapt to changing values, technologies and
market conditions
34

35. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Uncertainty in agreements
Types of uncertainty:
– Exogenous – related to the basin
– Endogenous – related to the agreement
Mechanisms to address uncertainty:
– Ambiguity in design
– Variable flow allocation, escape clauses
– Monitoring
– Provisions for amendments
– Provisions for conflict resolution
35
Drieschova, et al. 2011

36. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Common treaty failings
• Limited mandates
• Constrained authority
• Weak institutional capacity
• Insufficient financing
• Lack of enforcement
• Insufficient public participation
• Weighted towards technocratic solutions
36

37. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Beyond ‗State‘ & Watercourse
Need for a multi-scalar analysis
• Sub- national actors
• Supra- national level actors
Eco-systems boundaries, global commons?
37

38. Shared Empirical Law & Beyond the Changing
Water Wars IR Theory
Water Analysis Agreements State World
Global Change
• Environmental
– E.g., climate, groundwater, emerging contaminants
• Social
– Urbanization, migration
• Political
– Jasmine revolution, increasing nationalism in the EU
• Economic
– Role of China, new aid networks
– Sovereign wealth funds, global corporations
• Increasing transnational networks
38

39. 39
Contact: a.milman@uea.ac.uk