1. ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT
RESEARCH INSTITUTE
The Performance of the Livestock
Sector: investigating the supply side
challenges
Alebel Bayrau
Adiam Hagos
Ethiopian Development Research Institute
Workshop on the Economics of Livestock
Jupiter International Hotel
November 4, 2011

2. Outline
• Motivation
• Policy Initiatives
• Performance of the livestock sector
• Institutional support
• Conclusion

3. Motivation
 Three facts
1. Direct impact on household and national economy
 food security and poverty reduction
 Stabilize foreign reserve
 Generate employment opportunity
2. Growing Demand for livestock products (Milk and Meat) both
national and international markets (Volume and value):
 At national level
 Growth in population
 Growth in per capita GDP
 Growing demand as raw material inputs for the growing industry

4. Motivation …
 Growing Demand at international market (Delgado et al, 1999)
Meat and milk consumption increased in Projected increase in meat and milk
developing countries (1970s – 1990s) both consumption per year between 1990s -
in volume and value terms 2020
2.8%
175 million tones >2x the increase in Meat 100 millions tone more by 2020
developed countries compared to 1993.
3.3%
$155 billions >2x market value of Milk
cereal consumption 223 millions of tones more by
2020 compared to 1993.

5. Motivation …
 Fact 3: Huge local resource but very low supply response
Existing livestock stock (CSA, 2008/09)
Number Per capita holding
Ethiopia West Africa
Cattle 47,570675 1.76 0.21
Sheep 26,117,272
Goat 21,709428
Contribution of livestock sector (MoARd, 2007)
Share of agricultural GDP 30 – 35%
Share of total GDP 16%
Share of export earning 13%

6. Objective
General objective of this project is to review
the overall performance of the livestock sector
and its contribution to the economic growth
and poverty reduction efforts of Ethiopia.
 Examine trends in the performance of the sector
focusing on change in per capita stock holding;
technology adoption, productivity, livestock feed
system as well as institutional support.

7. Policy Initiatives
• Policy and strategy measures
 Objective of policy: utilize the available resource to increase its
contribution for the socioeconomic development of the country.
 Livestock development strategy prepared in 1997 with four
major components:
 Feed and nutrition
 Animal health
 Animal breeding
 Livestock marketing
 4 agricultural extension packages are designed to improve:
 Milk production using exotic breed
 Meat production using indigenous animals
 Egg production through introduction of exotic blood
 Honey production using improved management in traditional and
modern beehives.
 A number of programs and projects have been implemented in
relation to these strategies and extension packages (NAIC,
FNLDP, SDDP, NLDP, etc

8. Trends in stock holding
a. per capita cattle holdings

9. Trends in Per capita sheep holding

10. Trends in Per capita goat holdings

11. Trends in Per capita poultry and hives
holding

12. Trends in hh technology adoption

13. Trends in livestock productivity
a. Milk productivity
Year
Species 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
Average daily milk yield 1.324 1.233 1.357 1.457 1.521 1.35
(liter/cow)
% change - -6.9 9.6 5.9 7.2 -11.2
Variable 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
Average lactation period of
cows in months 7.78 7.94 8.01 8.51 8.54 8.54

14. b. Trends in poultry productivity
(egg/hen and days/clutch)
Egg production per hen 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
Egg Production - Per hen per
clutch_ ind 19.19 11.52 19.93 19.89 20.1
% change -40% 73 -0.2 1.1
Egg Production - Per hen per
clutch_ hybrid 31.34 43.81 38.18 34.32
% change 39.8 -12.8 -10.1
Egg Production - Per hen per
clutch_Foreign 140.06 99.62 122.51 101.04 90.32
% change -28.9 22.9 -17.6 -10.6
Change in average number of days per clutch for different poultry breeds over the
period 2004/05 – 2008/09
VARIABLES 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
Average number of days
per clutch_indogenous 19.19 19.59 19.93 19.89 20.1
Average number of days
per clutch_hybrid 36.77 43.81 38.18 34.32
Average number of days
per clutch_foreign 140.06 105.39 122.51 101.04 90.32

15. Honey productivity
(No. of harvest/year & yield/harvest in kg)
Change in honey productivity of different beehives technology (mean number of harvests
per year) over the period 2003/04 – 2008/09
Honey productivity 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
Number of harvests/ hive/year
- traditional 1.45 1.46 1.50 1.47 1.50 1.51
Number of harvests/hive/ year
- intermediate 1.45 1.58 1.36 1.51 1.62 1.61
Number of harvests/ hive/ year
- modern 1.61 1.30 1.42 1.52 1.58 1.67
change in honey productivity of different beehives technology (mean honey
production/harvest in Kg) over the period 2003/04 – 2008/09
Honey productivity 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09
Average honey
production/harvest- traditional 4.3 4.4 4.7 5.5 4.99 4.88
% change 2.33 6.8 17.0 -9.3 -2.2
Average honey
production/harvest-
intermediate 4.5 6.9 8.6 5.8 8.4 7.98
% change 53.3 24.6 -32.6 44.8 -5
Average honey
production/harvest- modern 9.5 9.4 11.8 9.9 12.6 13.06
% change -1.1 25.2 -16.1 27.3 3.9

16. Livestock feed:
Type, composition & source
Trends in Major feed type by livestock over the period 2004/05 – 2007/08 (% of
households stated using the feed resource)
04/05 07/08
Grazing 91.5 95.5
- cattle
Crop residue 72.2 74.9
- sheep
Improved pasture 0.4 0.82
- Goat
Trends in Composition of feed over the period 2003/04 – 2007/08 (% of the total feed)
Feed type 03/04 07/08
Cattle Sheep Goat Cattle Sheep Goat
Grazing 63.5 11.3 15 67.9 26.3 na
Crop residue 35 22.1 10 39.4 23.5 na
Improved forage 38.3 20 19.1

17. Change in source of feed
Proportion of households who stated source of livestock feed (%)
2003/04 2008/09
Cattle sheep Goat cattle sheep Goat
Own 32.7 91.0 61.8 34.2 88.1 65.7
property
purchased 1.6 1.7 28.5 1.4 1.8 21.4
Public 40.2 1.4 4.3 37.1 1.7 2.5
property

18. Institutional support
1. Animal health (CSA data)
trends in animal health (Mean per
household) Health 2003/04 2008/09
status
8 C S G C S G
Mean Per household
7
6 Afflicted 1.7 3.5 4.6 2.2 2.8 3.8
5 Cattle
4 sheep
3
2
goat Dead 0.9 2.7 3.3 0.5 0.7 0.9
1 due to
0 disease
dead
dead
vacinated
vacinated
Afflicted
Afflicted
Vaccinat 2.2 1.1 1.7 3.9 4.9 7.0
e
2003/04 2008/09
Health Status

19. Trends in animal vaccination service (NVI, 2009)
Trends in animal vaccination for major animal
disease
70,000,000
No. Vaccinated
60,000,000
50,000,000 CBPP
40,000,000
30,000,000 CCPP
20,000,000 N.castle
10,000,000
0 AHS
FMD
7
9
1
3
5
7
/9
/9
/0
/0
/0
/0
96
98
00
02
04
06
total
19
19
20
20
20
20
Year

20. Livestock Extension
Trends in Number of Livestock
Extension Packages
Year % of HH
Number of Packages
700 participated
600 in extension
500 Package for milk package
400
300 Package for
2005/6 2.8
200 improved meat
100 Package for
2006/7 2.12
0 improved poultry
2007/8 1.25
Package for
/06
/07
/08
/09
05
06
07
08
honey
20
20
20
20
2008/9 1.73
Year

21. Summary & Conclusion
1. The stock of livestock generally increased: per capita (PC), volume
& age structure.
2. The PC technology adoption has shown significant improvement
in exotic cattle and sheep breed but remained the same for
hybrid. Also, significant change observed in PC traditional
beehives but little change in modern beehives
3. Honey productivity (# harvest/yr & yield/harvest) increased
significantly. However, no significant but little improvement has
been observed in PC milk and poultry productivity;
4. No significant improvement observed in feed resource, sources
and composition.
5. The PC death of livestock due to disease significantly reduced
mainly due to a significant improvement in vaccination for major
animal disease.
6. Livestock extension service, though generally increased in
number of packages provided, is extremely low when evaluated
in terms of percentage of smallholder farmers participated in the
program.

22. Conclusion
• Nationally representative data specific to
livestock sector is needed. As it is now, it is
difficult, if not impossible, to conduct detail
policy analysis in the sector
• To enhance the contribution of the sector for
poverty reduction, the institutional aspect of
the sector, particularly the extension service,
need to be strengthened and consider the
different production system.

23. Thank you