Presentation by Professor Ingraffea during event on shale gas and fracking in the European Parliament (June 26, 2012)

1. 1860
Methane Concentration
1840
in Atmosphere, ppb
1820
1800
1780
1760
1740
1720
1700
1680
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
Unconventional Development of Shale Gas: A Critique
A. R. Ingraffea
Dwight C. Baum Professor
Cornell University
and
Physicians, Scientists, and Engineers for
Sustainable and Healthy Energy, Inc.
Committee on the Environment, Public Health and
Food Safety
Committee on Industry, Research and Energy
June 26, 2012 1

2. DRAFT REPORT
on the environmental impacts of shale gas and shale oil extraction activities
(2011/2308(INI)
Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety
Rapporteur: Bogusław Sonik
B. whereas the Energy Roadmap 2050 identifies that gas will be critical for the
transformation of the energy system by helping to reduce emissions; whereas the
Commission notes that shale gas and other UFF will become a very important new
source of supply in or around Europe;
C. whereas the two main techniques deployed in unleashing the UFF
potential, horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, have been used for decades;
3. Stresses that prevailing expert opinion indicates that the inherent risks of UFF
extraction, most of which are common to conventional fossil fuel extraction, could be
contained through pre-emptive measures, including proper planning, testing, use of
new technologies, best practices and continuous data collection, monitoring and
reporting;
7. Notes the importance of the work undertaken by reputable
institutions, notably the International Energy Agency (IEA), to prepare a
comprehensive Best Available Techniques (BAT) reference document on hydraulic
fracturing; calls on the Commission to cooperate with the Member States, the IEA and
industry associations to this end;
2

3. DRAFT REPORT
on the environmental impacts of shale gas and shale oil extraction activities
(2011/2308(INI)
Committee on the Environment, Public Health and Food Safety
Rapporteur: Bogusław Sonik
13. Believes that, given the depth (over 3km) at which hydraulic fracturing takes
place, the main concern regarding groundwater contamination is well integrity and the
quality of casing and cementing;
19. Notes that multi-horizontal-well drilling pads minimise land use and
landscape disturbance;
3

4. DRAFT REPORT
on the industrial, energy and other aspects of shale gas and oil
(2011/2309(INI)
Committee on Industry, Research and Energy
Rapporteur: Niki Tzavela
Transition to a decarbonised economy
8. Is of the view that developing shale gas in the EU will help achieve the EU's
goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80-95% by 2050 compared to 1990
levels, which is the basis of the Energy Roadmap for 2050;
9. Agrees with the Commission that gas will be critical for the transformation
of the energy system, as stated in the above-mentioned Roadmap, since it represents
a quick and cost-efficient way of reducing reliance on other, dirtier fossil
fuels, thereby lowering greenhouse gas emissions; believes that shale gas could, as a
"bridge fuel", play a critical role in this, particularly in those Member States that use
large amounts of coal in power generation;
I submit that the statements which I have highlighted are questionable.
And, there is NO mention of impact of shale gas development
on climate change.
4

5. Unconventional Development of
Natural Gas from Shale Formations Is
Spatially Intense: You Do NOT Yet
Know What It Will Look Like
5

6. Unconventional Development of Natural Gas
from Shale Formations Is Spatially Intense
Barnett TX, a MATURE play of ~ 15,000 wells Marcellus Wells Drilled
2008 – 195
2009 – 768
2010 – 1454
2011 – 1937
2012 – 300+
TOTAL ~ 5,000
Estimated # of Marcellus
Wells at Buildout:
100,000
1 km
In large U.S. plays, shale gas development has only just begun
6

7. Spatial Intensity Via Multiple, “Horizontal” Wells
from Clusters of Pads
From Cody Teff, Shell Appalachia, WELL CONSTRUCTION PRACTICES IN THE MARCELLUS 7

8. Example of Spatially Intense Development:
Dallas/Fort Worth Airport Property, Barnett Shale Play
• 53 pads on 18,076 acres,
30 square miles
• Each red line is a well
• Each red dot is a pad
• Almost complete
coverage
• Patchwork, mostly ideal
units
• One leasor, One developer
8

9. An Industrial-Ideal Pad/Well Buildout Scenario
9

10. Clustering of Pads in Tioga County, PA
10

11. Pads Will Be Constructed Regardless of Terrain
Photos Courtesy
of Bob Donnan
11

12. In the large U.S plays, shale gas
development has only just begun,
and it requires large number of large,
multi-well, clustered pads and
significant ancillary infrastructure
12

13. It Is My View that Developing Shale
Gas in the EU Will NOT Help Achieve
the EU's Goal of Reducing
Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 80-95%
by 2050 Compared to 1990 Levels
13

14. CO2 Concentration in the Atmosphere: NOAA
Seasonal fluctuation
~ ~ 2 ppm increase per year
2 ppm increase per year
450 ppm a a “tipping point”
450 ppm “tipping point”
We have about 30 years…
We have about 30 years…
14

15. Measured Methane Concentration
in the Atmosphere: NOAA
1860
1840
1820
Methane Concentration, ppb
1800
1780
1760 All Data in December of Year
Uncertainty about 10 ppb
1740
1720
1700
1680
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccg/ch4/in-situ/mlo/ch4_mlo_surface-insitu_1_ccgg_month.txt 15

16. Methane Is a Much More Potent
Greenhouse Gas Than Carbon Dioxide
• 32 times more potent over 100 years
• 105 times more potent over 20 years
• Therefore, even small emission rates important
Shindell DT, Faluvegi G, Koch DM, Schmidt GA, Unger N, and Bauer SE (2009).
Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions. Science 326: 716-718.
16

17. http://www.globalchange.gov/
17

18. Howarth et al. (2012-b) – Background paper for National Climate Assessment
Downstream Emissions
(storage, transmission
pipelines, distribution systems)
Common to Conventional
and Unconventional Gas

19. Howarth et al. (2012-b) – Background paper for National Climate Assessment
Upstream and Midstream
Emissions from
Conventional Gas

20. Howarth et al. (2012-b) – Background paper for National Climate Assessment
Direct, landscape scale
measurements !!

21. Natural Gas Systems Now Produce 39%
of Total U.S. Methane Emissions
Methane contribution to
entire greenhouse gas
inventory
(Howarth et al. 2012, based on 2011 EPA data for 2009) 21

22. Shale Gas is the Dirtiest Fossil Fuel
Howarth & Ingraffea, Nature, 15 September 2011 22

23. Why Is Controlling Methane (CH4) Emission So Important?
Shindell, et al. Science 335, 183 (2012) 23

24. IEA’s Golden Age, Golden Rules, Or….?
If IEA’s Golden Rules for social, regulatory and environmental rules
are followed, by that agency’s own estimates, we will be on a
trajectory to 3.5 degrees Celsius of global warming this century.
“A 3.5 degrees Celsius temperature increase trajectory is
unacceptable in terms of its implications for human
beings, climate, species, and the fragile equilibrium of our planet…
If countries only rely on gas replacing coal for their environmental
policies they would make a mistake…”
Fatih Birol, IEA’s chief economist, 30 May, 2012
24

25. “There is no time to waste….”
“Natural gas is a delaying tactic…There is no time to waste…
We have to decide whether we are in the business of delaying
bad outcomes or whether we are in the business of preventing
bad outcomes.”
Ken Caldiera, Senior Scientist
Department of Global Ecology,
Carnegie Institution, Stanford, CA
April 15, 2012
25

26. Thank You for Attending
and Participating Today
www.psehealthyenergy.org
26