This document discusses moving from traditional supply-driven library collections to demand-driven collections using data analysis. It notes that collection budgets are unsustainable under traditional models and that data can help lower costs by making collections more precise and responsive to user needs. The document advocates analyzing usage data to modify collecting practices and asserts that demand-driven, user-focused models will become a larger share of budgets. It provides examples of how North Carolina State University uses data like usage statistics, citations, and user feedback to evaluate resources and make evidence-based decisions about collections.
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Clay Shirky, Fantasy Football, and Using Data to Glean the Future of Library Collections - Radically Different Future of Collection Development
1. Clay Shirky, Fantasy Football, and Using Data to
Glean the Future of Library Collections
Greg Raschke and John Vickery,
North Carolina State University
Charleston Conference
November 3, 2010
2. Assumptions
Economics are not sustainable
Collections budgets will not grow at rate of past 30 years
Unit growth and growth in cost per unit are not sustainable
Need to lower costs of overall system
Lower unit costs
Use data and users to be more precise
Therefore collection practices and strategies must change
This change will be hard – much reason for optimism
3. Supply-Side Collections
Print-based, unpredictable
demand, and legitimate need for
just in case collections
Lead to judging quality by size (as
in the ARL rankings) and libraries
were then held captive to this
standard
Contributed to inelastic demand
for journals and a combination of
speculative and package buying
Use is secondary to size, dollars
expended, and other input
measures
Credit to David Lewis
(http://ulib.iupui.edu/users/dlewis)
5. Demand-Driven Collections
Make information easily,
widely, and cheaply available
Collections as drivers of
research, teaching, and
learning
To make special or unique
collections held/managed by
the library available to the user
community and the world
6. Demand-Driven – Changing Practice
Tension between time-honored role as custodians of scholarship
versus enabling digital environment for scholars
Not just PDA – portfolio of approaches, but certainly more
responsive
Utilize new tools and techniques to become advanced analysts
Truly embrace evidence based decision making
Look at how collections are actually used, not at expressed need
7. Demand-Driven – More Assumptions
Less tolerance for and less
investment in lower use
general collections
Resource management based
increasingly on use
Modify collecting based on
changes in the actual use
Risks of doing nothing –
newspapers
8. Demand-Driven – Assertions
Rewards of adapting – more
used and vital than ever
Use based and user driven
collecting models will take
growing share of budget
Bet on numbers
Bet on good and quick
Put resources into enabling
digital environment for
scholars and custodian role
will come out of that strategy
9. Why So Much Data?
Data analysis is a key component in solving/managing:
Increasing pressure for accountability
Increasing capability to gather and analyze data
Increasing precision in the way we build collections and expend
resources
Advocacy
Changing practice and data analysis at NCSU
10.
11. Serials Review 2009 – Open, Data-Driven,
and Real-Time Analysis
Standardized usage data
(where available)
Bibliometrics - publication
data and citation patterns
(e.g LJUR)
Impact factor and eigenfactor
User community feedback via
interactive, database-driven
applications
Weigh/calculate/quantify user
feedback
Weigh price against multiple
data points
Usage ((07 usage+08 usage/2)+
(publications*10)+ (citations*5)+
(Impact Factor)
Community Feedback
((Weighted Ranking x % Match)
x Total # Rankings) + 0.1 x # of
"1s“
Price/feedback value
Price/use
Merge results to filter out top
20% and bottom 20%
12. Looking closer – Finding balance
An example - a closer look at print item usage
Traditional ILS reporting tools can make this difficult
Advanced analytical tools can help
What types of questions can we ask?
Should Patron-Driven records not purchased be purged after 2 years?
How does print item usage break down?
Do print items even get used?
13. If it’s not used after 2 years…
Should PDA records
be purged?
Maybe…
We haven’t even hit
50% usage
But what if we take
a longer view…
14. If it’s not used after 2 years…
Things begin to
look different
15. Looking even closer…
How does
print item use
break down?
Single circ
usage is
consistently
~14%
Would this
change in a
PDA only
world?
20. Measurable Uses of the Collection 2009/2010
Full-text journal downloads* 3,672,600
Database use 1,989,972
Print book circulations/renewals 525,430
Digital collections requests 471,403
E-books 149,815
Reserves** 327,267
Total Uses 7,136,487
* Includes use of NC LIVE full-text content
** Includes textbook, print, and e-reserves usage
Measurable Uses of the Collection 2009/2010
21. Challenges
Have ability to be more precise, more used, and more relevant than
ever – need to make the necessary changes
Apps are a risk – silo(ing) networked, web environment –
connections where libraries can excel
Not enough data - still lack much of the comprehensive data we
need – must improve quickly
Data can punish niche areas, disciplinary variation, and titles without
data
Open resources impact ability to control and command data
Notas del editor
* Reference David Lewis
Many reasons for this:
Technology and increasing amount of content on open networks
Changes in publishing
Supply-chain capabilities and print-on-demand
Increased accountability
One reason trumps all others - economics
“That is what real revolutions are like. The old stuff gets broken faster than the new stuff is put in its place. The importance of any given experiment isn’t apparent at the moment it appears; big changes stall, small changes spread. Even the revolutionaries can’t predict what will happen. Agreements on all sides that core institutions must be protected are rendered meaningless by the very people doing the agreeing. (Luther and the Church both insisted, for years, that whatever else happened, no one was talking about a schism.) Ancient social bargains, once disrupted, can neither be mended nor quickly replaced, since any such bargain takes decades to solidify.” – Clay Shirky
“One of the difficult aspects of change, particularly when it is accompanied by complex technology and multiplying data sources, is the ability to give up an old story and develop a new one. The ‘story’ is a common sense version that unfolds.” – Jennifer James
“I don’t know. Nobody knows. We’re collectively living through 1500, when it’s easier to see what’s broken than what will replace it. The internet turns 40 this fall. Access by the general public is less than half that age. Web use, as a normal part of life for a majority of the developed world, is less than half that age. We just got here. Even the revolutionaries can’t predict what will happen.” – Clay Shirky
Spending this year’s money based on last year’s statistics, gut instinct, and what other people are saying.
Trends are likely to hold.
Price and demand instability.
Waiver wire – aggregated packages.
Spend money on people because that is what you have always done.
Auction process changing everything – differential pricing.
Key is management after use and results.
Package challenges.
13,000+ points of data from 700 users – how do you at least run an initial filter through that data?
Relationships between usage data and community feedback data.
Way more open and data-driven process than ever before where capturing data and feedback and analyzing it in real-time.
“Web browser’s dominance is coming to a close. And the Internet’s founding ideology – that information wants to be free, and that attempts to constrain it are not only hopeless but immoral – suddenly seems naïve and stale in the new age of apps, smart phones, and pricing plans.”