Salient Features of India constitution especially power and functions
Ataa citywire april 2010
1. Aviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund
Luxembourg, 22nd April 2010
Gary Saidler, Client Portfolio Manager
Katrin Ostermeier, Business Development Director
2. This document is for investment professionals only. The content is not approved for use with retail
investors or pension scheme members.
2
3. Asset Allocation: Harder than it looks!
N. America Asia Pac Property UK Credit Global FI Em Mkts Em Mkts Japan Em Mkts Em Mkts
29% 84% 11% 7% 17% 56% 26% 45% 33% 40%
Europe Em Mkts UK Credit Property Property Asia Pac Property Em Mkts Asia Pac Asia Pac
25% 66% 10% 7% 10% 44% 19% 35% 30% 37%
World Japan O/S Govt O/S Govt UK Credit World World Europe Europe World
25% 47% 8% 5% 9% 34% 15% 29% 22% 10%
UK Credit Europe Cash Cash O/S Govt N. America Europe Asia Pac World Global FI
15% 37% 5% 4% 8% 30% 13% 27% 21% 9%
UK Equity World Global FI Global FI Cash Japan UK Equity UK Equity Property N. America
14% 25% 3% 2% 3% 23% 13% 22% 18% 8%
Global FI UK Equity Europe Em Mkts Em Mkts Europe N. America Property UK Equity Europe 50%
14% 24% -1% -2% -6% 21% 11% 19% 17% 7%
Difference
in 2007
Property N. America UK Equity Asia Pac Asia Pac UK Equity Japan World N. America UK Equity
12% 23% -6% -4% -14% 21% 11% 10% 7% 5%
O/S Govt Property N. America N. America Japan Global FI Global FI UK Credit Japan Cash
9% 14% -12% -12% -19% 13% 9% 9% 7.35% 5%
Cash Cash World UK Equity World Property Asia Pac N. America Global FI O/S Govt
6% 4% -13% -13% -20% 11% 7% -7% 7% 4%
Japan UK Credit Japan World N. America UK Credit UK Credit Cash Cash UK Credit
-9% 0.1% -20% -17% -22% 0.8% 7% 4% 4% 0.4%
Asia Pac O/S Govt Em Mkts Europe UK Equity Cash O/S Govt O/S Govt UK Credit Property
-9% -1% -31% -18% -23% 3% 5% 4% 0.8% -5%
Em Mkts Global FI Asia Pac Japan Europe O/S Govt Cash Global FI O/S Govt Japan
-25% -5% -36% -19% -32% 2% 4% -4% 0.7% -10%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Page 3
4. Overview of tactical asset allocation strategies
Dynamic strategy capturing short term opportunities across the asset spectrum
Equities/bonds/currencies/other e.g. property
UK, US, Europe, Japan and Asia
Balanced portfolio of relative value and directional trades
Diversified long/short positions in highly liquid and cost effective derivatives e.g.
Equity/bond index futures
Currency forwards
Property swap
The graph is for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the types of asset classes that we may take positions in. The list is not exhaustive.
Highly liquid strategy utilising a wide opportunity set
Highly liquid strategy utilising a wide opportunity set
4
5. Absolute Tactical Asset Allocation track record
Ucits III Sicav launched 26 January 2006
AUM – over £700m
High risk-adjusted returns**
Fund return 10.9% p.a. net since launch
Fund historical volatility of 8.1% p.a. since launch
Process applied since 1999
Across a variety of mandates targeting different returns
Achieved 94% target return since launch*
*From 1 January ‘99 to 31 March ‘10.
** Source: Lipper as at 31 March 2010, volatility calculated from monthly returns sourced from Lipper/Hindsight. Performance shown net of fees for I share class.
Past performance is not a guide to the future.
High risk-adjusted returns
High risk-adjusted returns
5
6. Improved risk return profile
Risk-return profile with
TAA
1 Month Libor Risk-return profile
-0.01 without TAA
FTA All Stocks
Return
-0.05
Lehman Global
Agg -0.09
FTSE World Europe
ex UK -0.30
MSCI World Risk
-0.37
FTSE All Share
-0.30 Initial portfolio with optimised strategic allocation
Improved return expectations for the same level of risk
-0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2
Improved risk profile for an identical level of return
A valuable additional source of returns
Correlations uses quarterly ‘alpha’ performance data from UK pooled pension fund TAA Overlay (Q1’99-Q2’05) and standalone GTAA mandates (Q3’05-Q1’10).
Index returns are in local currency.
6
7. Key decision makers for this fund
Adrian Jarvis The Asset Allocation Committee (AAC) uses
experience and judgement to identify and weigh
Fund Manager opportunities presented by our research
Joined industry in 1990
With Aviva Investors since 2000 Able to draw on the talent and insight of the wider
strategy team
Steve Cleal All roles 100% dedicated to the management of
Fund Manager asset allocation funds
Joined industry in 1987
With Aviva Investors since 1987
Hassan Johaadien
Head of Tactical Asset Allocation
Research
Joined industry in 1995
With Aviva Investors since 2005
Source: Aviva Investors 31 December 2009
An experienced and stable team
An experienced and stable team
7
8. Process supported by large team of specialists
Fund Managers
Helge Kostka Gary Saidler
Steve Cleal*
Adrian Jarvis*
Head of CPM – Head of Asset Allocation Client Portfolio
Investment Head of Strategy Manager – Asset
Fund Management
Solutions 20 years experience Allocation
22 years experience
Strategic Asset Tactical Asset Analytics &
Economics Strategy Implementation
Allocation Allocation Research
Hassan Niral
Mirko Cardinale Haydn Davies Jonathan
Stewart Robertson Johaadien* Shukla
Head of Strategic Abrahams
Senior Economist Head of Tactical TAA Modelling &
Asset Allocation Head of MAF
(UK & Europe) Asset Allocation Currency Strategist Performance
Research Implementation
Research Analyst
David Hillier Sergio Anna Greaves
Maulshree Saroliya Supriya Menon Carmen Magness
Ferreira
Senior Economist Strategic Asset Research Assistant MAF
Asset Allocation Macro Strategist
(Americas) Allocation Analyst Implementation
Analyst
Shamik Dhar
Bruno Serdoura Ying Jiang Amien Johaadien Nichola Guinn
Senior Economist Strategic Asset Asset Allocation MAF
Allocation Analyst Analyst Systems Developer
Asia Implementation
Andrzej Pioch Sukh Sangha
Strategic Asset MAF
Allocation Analyst Implementation
8
* Member of the Asset Allocation Committee
9. Investment process – key stages
Investment
Economic Optimal
Forecasting Portfolio
Portfolio
scenario portfolio Implementation
Implementation
returns selection
analysis analysis
Combines the best of quantitative and qualitative inputs
Combines the best of quantitative and qualitative inputs
9
10. Forecasting returns
Example scenarios:
Return forecasts
Two-Speed World
40% Economic fundamentals
Equities
Equities
Profile for next 2 years for: Equities
Liquidity Abounds Equities
15% GDP
Inflation Bonds
Bonds
Interest rates Bonds
Bonds
Exports
Recovery Corporate profits Currencies
20% Currencies
etc Currencies
Currencies
Other
Credit
assets
Policy Error Credit
Credit
25% Credit
Other
Other
Source: Aviva Investors 29 March 2010
Output: a set of asset return forecasts for each scenario
Output: a set of asset return forecasts for each scenario
10
11. Decision 15 September 2008: Adding value when
our uncertainty is at its highest
50% 30% 20%
Global hard landing Recovery Depression
Idea 1:
Expected impact: Expected impact: Expected impact:
credit spreads
+1.6% +3.4% -0.4%
tighten
Idea 2:
Expected impact: Expected impact: Expected impact:
interest rates
+1.5% -1.4% +6.3%
decrease
Positions Expected impact: Expected impact: Expected impact:
combined +3% +2% +6%
We select portfolios to add value across all scenarios
We select portfolios to add value across all scenarios
Source: Aviva Investors as at September 2008 11
12. Aviva Investors Asset Allocation –
07 April 2010
Implementation for ATAA Fund
Libor +15% p.a. net target Relative risk-adjusted size of active positions
Euro Stoxx 50 -45%
DAX +10%
TOPIX +20%
S&P 500 +10% Equity Market Direction
ASX 200 -10% 0%
Others Equity Relative Value
Hang Seng +5% 12% 18%
KOSPI +5%
Singapore +5%
10Y SONIA Swap -50%
UK 10Y Bond +50%
AU 10Y Bond -35%
CN 10Y Bond -50%
GE 10Y Bond +75% Currency
IT 10Y Bond -60% 23%
US 10Y Bond -80%
JP 10Y Bond -40%
GBP -5%
Bond Market Direction
SEK +20% 27%
CHF +5%
PLN +5%
KRW +10%
NZD -20%
JPY -20% Bond Relative Value
20%
EUR -40%
CNY +15%
AUD +25%
CAD +5%
UK IPD Swap +10%
US 2Y Bond -100%
Equities +0% Bonds -190% Currency +0% Other -90%
Page 12
13. Independent, centralised risk management team
Daily monitoring, analysis and control
Value at Risk ensures regulatory limits met daily using proprietary model
Value at Risk Stress testing to analyse impact of extreme events
Contribution to risk broken out for individual asset and asset classes
Daily monitoring and a formal monthly meeting with fund managers
Stress Testing Event Date (*) 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month 1 Year
Black Monday 19th October 1987 -1.76 -2.78 -3.27 3.30
Asian Crisis 2nd July 1997 -0.43 -2.06 -2.14 -31.34
Global Crash 27th October 1997 -1.09 -1.72 -1.34 -15.90
Contribution
to Risk Russian Crisis/LTCM 31st August 1998 0.46 -0.36 1.18 34.31
Dot-Com 14th April 2000 -0.61 -2.31 -2.09 -18.67
Sep 11th 2001 (WTC) 11th September 2001 2.14 -1.86 -4.22 0.69
WorldCom/Enron 17th July 2002 1.14 0.12 2.65 -0.61
Global Credit Crisis (2007/08) 20th June 2007 1.06 0.70 2.84 3.03
Lehman Bros Bankruptcy 15th Sep 2008 0.26 0.97 -2.51 4.15
(*) Estimated event start date not always clearly identifiable.
Source: Aviva Investors 3 March 2010
13
14. Tactical asset allocation summary
Fund design offers high risk-adjusted returns in any market environment
Diversification benefits when mixed with conventional assets
Scenario analysis offers capital protection across uncertain investment environment
Team of dedicated asset allocation specialists offers depth of experience and breadth of skills
14
16. Example: summary of return optimisation inputs
Two-Speed Liquidity
World Abounds Recovery Policy Error Weighted
Weight: 40% 20% 20% 20%
Obs: 2000 1000 1000 1000
UK eq 7.3% 14.5% 19.0% -17.0% 6.2%
US eq 8.0% 16.0% 21.0% -19.0% 6.8%
EU eq 3.0% 21.0% 21.0% -24.0% 4.8%
JP eq 16.0% 24.0% 24.0% -29.0% 10.2%
STI 14.5% 25.5% 40.5% -26.5% 13.7%
HangSeng 13.4% 22.4% 35.4% -23.6% 12.2%
KOSPI 14.0% 23.5% 46.5% -25.0% 14.6%
TAIEX 15.3% 38.8% 41.3% -34.7% 15.2%
Aust_SPI 9.0% 14.0% 27.5% -22.5% 7.4%
IPD Swap 2012 10.3% 18.3% 28.8% -22.0% 9.1%
EURJPY 2.5% 5.4% 7.2% -7.2% 2.1%
UK 10y bo 3.8% 3.8% -7.9% 3.8% 1.4%
US 10y bo 4.7% 4.7% -7.5% 4.7% 2.3%
EU 10y bo 2.6% 2.6% -5.1% 2.6% 1.1%
JP 10y bo 2.0% 2.0% -2.6% 2.0% 1.1%
AU 10y bo 2.3% -1.0% -4.2% 2.3% 0.3%
Source: Aviva Investors Strategy team, based on scenario returns
The graph is for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the types of asset classes that we may take positions in. The list is not exhaustive.
16
17. Example: optimisation and portfolio selection
Two-Speed Liquidity Returns Holdings
Initial World Abounds Recovery Policy Error Blended Blended AAC
Template Optimal Optimal Optimal Optimal Optimal Optimal Proposal
Equities +84% +55% +69% -160% +64% +36% +15% +15%
Govt Bonds -120% -60% +5% -302% -103% -283% -245% -190% -70%
Other
Returns Under
Two-Speed World +6.2% +21.9% +17.4% +8.4% -12.9% +16.3% +20.2% +6.3% +0.1%
Liquidity Abounds +6.1% +28.2% +38.9% +8.5% -21.1% +24.3% +26.6% +9.1% +3.0%
Recovery +16.4% +24.4% +15.5% +53.2% -32.8% +41.0% +27.1% +22.3% +5.9%
Policy Error -6.6% -27.8% -25.3% -22.9% +37.1% -20.4% -18.4% -6.2% +0.4%
Weighted Average +5.0% +10.9% +9.5% +9.6% -5.6% +13.3% +12.9% +6.8% +1.8%
Expected Volatility +12.4% +20.0% +20.0% +20.0% +20.0% +20.0% +20.0% +13.8% +1.4%
Information Ratio 0.41 0.49
Source: Aviva Investors Strategy team, based on scenario returns
The graph is for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the types of asset classes that we may take positions in. The list is not exhaustive.
17
18. Our credentials
Experience
Key decision makers with over 50 years combined experience in TAA
Stable team of 20 dedicated asset allocation specialists
Process
Unique blend of quantitative and qualitative analysis
Focus on capital preservation
Performance
No down years in 11 years
Performance particularly strong in times of market stress
18
19. Fund performance since launch
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund (GBP)
Performance versus benchmark since inception to 31 March 2010
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
26/01/2006
13/03/2006
26/04/2006
09/06/2006
25/07/2006
07/09/2006
23/10/2006
06/12/2006
19/01/2007
06/03/2007
19/04/2007
04/06/2007
18/07/2007
31/08/2007
16/10/2007
29/11/2007
14/01/2008
27/02/2008
11/04/2008
27/05/2008
10/07/2008
25/08/2008
08/10/2008
21/11/2008
06/01/2009
19/02/2009
06/04/2009
20/05/2009
03/07/2009
18/08/2009
01/10/2009
16/11/2009
30/12/2009
12/02/2010
30/03/2010
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA I(MF) LIBOR GBP 1 Month (IN)
1 Month 3 Months 6 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since
% % % % % % p.a. % p.a. Launch %
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA
1.23 3.60 6.66 3.60 9.29 31.39 - 53.80
I(MF)
LIBOR GBP 1 Month (IN) 0.05 0.13 0.26 0.13 0.62 11.51 - 18.09
Source: Aviva Investors/Lipper Hindsight as at 31/03/2010. Data is representative of share class I and is provided net of fees w ith gross income reinvested in GBP
Figures do not take into account the costs incurred on the issue and redemption of shares. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
19
20. Fund performance since launch
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund EUR hedged
Performance versus benchmark since inception to 31 March 2010
125
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
28/08/2007 26/11/2007 22/02/2008 22/05/2008 20/08/2008 18/11/2008 16/02/2009 15/05/2009 13/08/2009 11/11/2009 09/02/2010
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA I EUR Hedge (MF) EURIBOR 1 Month (IN)
1 Month 3 Months 6 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since
% % % % % p.a. % p.a. % p.a. Launch %
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA
1.26 3.69 6.43 3.69 9.22 - - 21.00
I EUR Hedge (MF)
EURIBOR 1 Month (IN) 0.04 0.11 0.22 0.11 0.62 - - 7.22
Source: Lipper Hindsight as at 31/03/2010. Data is representative of share class I and is provided net of fees w ith gross income reinvested in EUR.
Figures do not take into account the costs incurred on the issue and redemption of shares. Past performance is not a guide to the future.
20
21. Fund performance since launch
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA 5 Fund (EUR)
Performance versus benchmark since inception to 31 March 2010
110
108
106
104
102
100
98
96
06/12/2007 05/03/2008 03/06/2008 01/09/2008 28/11/2008 26/02/2009 27/05/2009 25/08/2009 23/11/2009 19/02/2010
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA 5 I EUR (MF) EURIBOR 1 Month (IN)
1 Month 3 Months 6 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since
% % % % % % p.a. % p.a. Launch %
Aviva Investors Absolute
0.30 0.95 1.93 0.95 2.36 - - 8.38
TAA 5 I EUR (MF)
EURIBOR 1 Month (IN) 0.04 0.11 0.22 0.11 0.62 - - 5.95
Source: Lipper Hindsight as at 31/03/2010. Data is representative of share class I and is provided net of fees w ith gross income reinvested in EUR.
Figures do not take into account the costs incurred on the issue and redemption of shares. Past performance is not a guide to the future.
21
22. Aviva Investors Investment Strategy Team - investment scenarios and positioning – 07th April 2010
Scenarios focus on evolution of the global recovery
Two-Speed World Liquidity Abounds Recovery Policy Error
15% 20% 25%
40%
The sub-par recovery plods along in Variant of Two-Speed World – Global synchronised recovery gathers Policymakers have taken
US/EU/UK. Financial system in Asia / EM policymakers refuse to pace. Past cycles show sharpest extreme measures to prevent a
recovery with ongoing deleveraging, allow currencies to appreciate, upturns follow sharpest downturns – financial meltdown / global
private credit weak, consumers wary. leading to excess credit creation. this was worst recession in 80 years depression. Asset markets could
Risk of further US housing weakness. Bubbles develop in Asia / EM with largest output gap. be adversely affected through a
Asia / EM enjoy strong cyclical Real Estate + Equities. Impact of policy stimulus leads to number of channels:
recovery, driving global growth
Risk of US Treasury bubble upside growth surprise in US. Withdrawal of QE - may
forward. Strong mix of loose policy,
driven by central bank recycling Employment recovers Q1, supporting cause bond market volatility.
commodity strength, improving
of savings. housing and consumption.
domestic demand with no credit Interest rate hikes /
overhang. Structural commodity story is still Global imbalances build – US current premature fiscal tightening -
Equity boost from strong profits, esp. intact; combines with excess account deteriorates, EM economies may create fear of double
where currencies cheap, but re-rating liquidity to push commodity resume export-led growth model. dip recession.
phase over. complex still higher in 2010, Profits beat expectations; equity rally Protectionism - may trigger
particularly for those with supply continues, albeit with sporadic sell-
Support from QE/Banks/Investor trade war / geopolitical
constraints. offs on rate hike fears.
demand helps Treasury yields remain instability.
range bound. Credit spreads narrow Risk of 2011 recession if oil Growing risk central banks behind the Risk aversion rises - equities,
modestly. prices approach 2008 peak. curve on inflation; bonds sell off; $ / credit, bonds suffer; cash & gold
US$ remains weak, with counter-trend commodities rally. provide safe havens.
rallies. Yen vulnerable once Fed fund
hikes in view.
23. Scenarios and Positioning – Current rationales
7 April 2010
Asset allocation stance reflects best positioning for next 6-9 months against all scenarios plus short-term timing opportunities
Equity Market Equity Relative Bond Market Bond Relative
Currency Other
Direction Value Direction Value
Moderate gains for Econ. fundamentals Short duration. Next Japanese nominal Highlights: Inflows support UK
equities expected in more supportive of move for short rates is bonds are thematic commercial property;
AUD, SEK - process
H110 under first three Asian markets. up and phase of cycle is short given debt trap Long swap position
favours rate hike
scenarios driven by bond -ve. Low short and demographics. held.
Europe least favoured currencies.
profits, not re-ratings. rates & deleveraging
given economic strains Italian BTP spread over Short US 2Y Notes;
creating sovereign KRW – value, Asian
Policy Error scenario and expensive euro. Bunds expected to market likely to start
demand. appreciation.
would be very negative Japan offers short-term widen should EU pricing in more rate
for equities. opportunity given strong Yield risks on upside funding concerns EUR – still expensive, rises.
flows and expected Yen from high issuance & resurface. poor econ. outlook,
Short-term technicals Macro fund holds:
weakness. specific sovereign- sovereign debt crises.
show mkt is overbought. Swap spreads overly
related credit concerns. -Long gold; inflation /
Fund tilt towards pessimistic about risk of JPY – expensive,
Neutral position for now. Offsetting demand from deflation hedge .
markets that are more UK government default. potential for more QE.
QE now ending. -Short Eurostoxx50
robust to Policy Error.
Upside risks to AU + CN
correlation; position for
yields.
greater stock selection
End of QE + stronger in 2010.
data to put upward
pressure on US yields.
23
24. Scenarios and positioning - summary of recent
changes -
07 April 2010
Date Change (Global Macro) Rationale
10-Feb-10 Reduce size of Eurostoxx short by 30% Market oversold, risk that some relief on Greek deficit issues causes snap back.
"Liquidity Abounds" from 20% to 15%, "Policy Error" from 20% to 25% China tightening and EU weakness changes the probability distribution.
15-Feb-10 Buy 12% S&P; sell 12% Eurostoxx Near term risks of a sharp relief rally in Europe have receded. Profits in US to exceed euro profits
Sell 100% US 2yr bonds Rate rises in the US likely to exceed profile discounted by short rate curve
Buy 15% AUD; sell 15% CAD AUD has fallen recently and has interest rate support and relatively strong economy
Buy 6% EUR; sell 5% GBP; sell 1% JPY Reflect GBP's recent rise against the euro
Buy 10% SEK; sell 5% NOK; sell 5% GBP Trade following currency model output
22-Feb-10 Sell 10% Eurostoxx, 10% S&P500 and 10% Australia SPI Markets up strongly over past few weeks and are no longer oversold
Sell 5% NOK and 5% AUD; Buy 5% CAD and 5% PLN Trade following currency model output
24-Feb-10 Sell 60% BTP bonds; buy 15% German 10y and 15% UK 10y Italian bonds expected to suffer greater funding concerns than Germany and UK
Buy 5% SEK and 5% CAD; sell 5% NOK and 5% GBP Trade following currency model output
01-Mar-10 Buy 5% SEK; sell 5% GBP SEK well supported by fundamantals. Concerns over minority government to weigh on GBP
02-Mar-10 Buy 10yr gilts; sell 10yr SONIA Swap spreads overly pessimistic about risk of UK government default
08-Mar-10 Buy 5% CAD and 5% SEK; Sell 5% NOK and 5% NZD Trade following currency model output
Buy 5% AUD and 5% USD; Sell 10% JPY JPY is overvalued and could suffer if risk appetite increases
10-Mar-10 Buy 10% DAX & 15% FTSE100; sell 5% Taiwan & 5% TOPIX Temporary fix for Greek sovereign crisis, weak £ benefits UK, equity mix protects against Policy Error
Buy 45% Bunds; Sell 15% Gilts & 50% Aus bonds & 50% Can bonds Upside risks to Aus, Can yields; use Bunds to fully offset BTP short now
22-Mar-10 Sell 5% Eurostoxx Lock in some profit following recent equity bounce
Buy 10% USD; Sell 10% JPY USD fundamentlaly cheap vs JPY and supported by stronger economic momentum
Buy 5% CHF; Sell 5% EUR Trade following currency model output
29-Mar-10 Buy 5% USD; Sell 5% JPY Trade following currency model output
Buy 50% JP 10y, buy 15% Aus 10y and Eur 10y; Sell 80% US 10y End of QE to put upward pressure on US yields. Take profit on Jap and Aus short bond positions
06-Apr-10 Sell 10% FTSE100 Neutralise equity long after strong rally. UK market overbought
Buy 10% TOPIX, Sell 10% Eurostoxx Japanese equities to receive support from weakening Yen. Market also relatively cheap
07-Apr-10 Buy 5% GBP; Sell 5% JPY Sterling very cheap and election likely to bring some fiscal realism
Buy 5% CAD; Sell 5% EUR Canadian economy strengthening, rates likely to rise more quickly than in Europe
Buy 5% SEK; Sell 5% NOK Trade following currency model output
The % changes shown are on the template for funds targeting 15% p.a net outperformance (ATAA, GMAA and Global Macro).
For our funds with other levels of target outperformance positions are scaled accordingly, e.g. ATAA5 changes are ¼ of these.
Page 24
25. Aviva Investors Asset Allocation –
29 March 2010
Implementation for Absolute TAA 5 Fund
Libor +3.75% p.a. net target Relative risk-adjusted size of active positions
FTSE 100 +3%
Euro Stoxx 50 -9%
DAX +3% Equity Market Direction
TOPIX +3% Others 5%
S&P 500 +3% 13%
Equity Relative Value
ASX 200 -3%
13%
Hang Seng +1%
KOSPI +1%
Singapore +1%
10Y SONIA Swap -13%
UK 10Y Bond +13%
AU 10Y Bond -9%
CN 10Y Bond -13%
Currency
GE 10Y Bond +19% 21%
IT 10Y Bond -15%
US 10Y Bond -20%
JP 10Y Bond -10%
GBP -3%
SEK +4%
CHF +1% Bond Market Direction
NOK +1% 27%
PLN +1%
KRW +3%
NZD -5%
JPY -4%
Bond Relative Value
EUR -9%
21%
CNY +4%
AUD +6%
UK IPD Swap +3%
US 2Y Bond -25%
Equities +3% Bonds -48% Currency +0% Other -23%
25
26. Long-term track record
Founding client, target return contribution 1% p.a., 01/01/99 to 31/03/10
Long Term GTAA Quarterly performance
Actual return 0.94% p.a., volatility 1.09% p.a., risk adjusted return 0.86*
Long Term GTAA1.1%, information ratio of 0.85
Performance +0.94%, volatility
Quarterly Performance
+2.50
+2.00
+1.50
+1.00
Alpha %
+0.50
-0.50
-1.00
-1.50
-2.00
Q1 1999 Q1 2000 Q1 2001 Q1 2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010
Actual quarterly GTAA strategy return Target per quarter
Past performance is not a guide to future performance
*Source: Aviva Investors. Alpha composite performance gross of fees. Composite relates to the AIPL Balanced Managed Overlay (Q4’98-Q1’05)
and a standalone GTAA mandate (Q2’05-Q4’07), ATAA Fund Q108 to Q110. Scaled to 1% p.a. volatility and alpha target. GBP.
Consistent returns over the long-term
Consistent returns over the long-term
26
27. ATAA monthly gross of fees attribution by decision
Monthly Contribution to +20% Fund GOF Alpha by Decision
10.00%
Return Target: UK 1M LIBOR GBP + 20% p.a Gross of Fees
8.00%
6.00%
4.00%
Alpha Contribution
2.00%
0.00%
-2.00%
-4.00%
-6.00%
-8.00%
06
6
6
6
07
7
7
7
08
8
8
8
09
9
9
9
6
6
7
7
8
8
9
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
r-0
-0
-0
r-0
-0
-0
r-0
-0
-0
r-0
-0
-0
b-
n-
g-
b-
n-
g-
b-
n-
g-
b-
n-
g-
ec
ec
ec
ec
ct
ct
ct
ct
Ap
Ap
Ap
Ap
Fe
Ju
Fe
Ju
Fe
Ju
Fe
Ju
Au
Au
Au
Au
O
O
O
O
D
D
D
D
Equity Beta Equity Market S.T.I.R. (<5 Yrs) L.T.I.R. Beta L.T.I.R. Market Currency Other
Source Aviva Investors Strategy Team as at end of December 2009. Short term interest rates (STIR), Long term interest rates (LTIR). 'Other' relates to the volatility trade (Vix
future), CDS and UK commercial property swap. Attribution shown in GBP.
27
28. Risk management is integral to our process
Fund managers manage market risk by:
Scenario
Testing Ensuring portfolios perform well across scenarios
Ensuring portfolio maintains good balance across six main asset risk categories
Sizing trades according to projected risk and level of conviction
Portfolio Managing overall leverage and risk level
Diversification
AAC varies risk as shown below
Total portfolio Normal
volatility Current
Low High confidence in
confidence in mis-pricing
mis-pricing
Minimum Maximum
0% volatility + 30% volatility
28
29. Historic Value at Risk (VaR) within the Fund
Source: Aviva Investors as at 31 March 2010
29
30. Model positions - gross exposure by asset class
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund (I Class)
M odel Positions - Gross Exposure By Asset Class
900%
800%
700%
600%
500%
%
400%
300%
200%
100%
0%
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
Nov-06
Mar-07
Nov-07
Mar-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Nov-09
Jul-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Gross Equities Exposure Gross Bond Exposure Gross Currency Exposure Gross Portfolio Exposure
Gross STIR Exposure Gross CDS Exposure Gross Other
Source Aviva Investors Strategy Team as at 31 December 2009. NB STIR = short-term interest rates that include EURO$, EUROSCHATZ, and TIPS
positions. NB CDS = 5 year CDS on Itraxx super senior tranche (22% - 100%). Positions shown as % of NAV.
30
31. Model positions – net exposure by asset class
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund (I Class)
Model Positions - Net Exposure By Asset Class
400%
300%
200%
100%
%
0%
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
Mar-06
Nov-06
Mar-07
Nov-07
Mar-08
Nov-08
Mar-09
Nov-09
Jan-06
Jul-06
Sep-06
Jan-07
Jul-07
Sep-07
Jan-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Jan-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
-100%
-200%
-300%
Net Equities Exposure Net Bond Exposure Net Currency Exposure
Net STIR Exposure Net CDS Exposure Net Other
Source Aviva Investors Strategy Team as at 31 December 2009. NB STIR = short-term interest rates that include EURO$, EUROSCHATZ, and TIPS
positions. NB CDS = 5 year CDS on Itraxx super senior tranche (22% - 100%). Positions shown as % of NAV.
31
32. Example Sept 2008: Credit offered great long-term
value, but not robust on its own
Opportunity: buy senior tranche of European investment grade credit
Credit spreads high. Looking to profit from market views & distortions
Massively inflated income for lowest risk CDS tranche due to liquidity crisis
Historic analysis plus worst case defaults showed huge over-compensation
Very high confidence to expiry, but material risk under ‘Depression’ scenario
Itraxx Europe 22-100% Tranche Premium
100
80
60
40
20
0
Nov -05 M ar-06 Jul-06 Nov -06 M ar-07 Jul-07 Nov -07 M ar-08 Jul-08
Source: Aviva Investors / Itraxx, data as at September 2008
32
33. Example Sept 2008: High interest rates offering
attractive value and hedge
Opportunity: receive fixed, pay floating European interest rate
Sticky inflation expectations, reticent ECB and European slowdown denial
Way of making money out of interest rate expectations versus market views
Natural and convincing hedge for ‘Depression’ scenario
High confidence to expiry, but material risk under ‘Recovery’ scenario
EONIA 15/09/08
5
4
3
2
Swap Curve
1 Our Forecast
12 Month Average Difference
0
-1
Oct 08 Dec 08 Feb 09 Apr 09 Jun 09 Aug 09 Oct 09 Dec 09 Feb 10 Apr 10 Jun 10 Aug 10 Oct 10
Source: Aviva Investors as at September 2008
33
34. Fund range overview
Fund Name Absolute TAA Fund Absolute TAA 5 Fund
Legal structure Luxembourg domiciled SICAV Luxembourg domiciled SICAV
UCITS compliant Yes Yes
Currency GBP EUR
Performance target Benchmark +15% net of fees Benchmark +3.75% net of fees
Benchmark 1 month GBP LIBOR 1 month Euribor
Expected average volatility Under 20% p.a. Under 5% p.a.
Liquidity Daily Daily
Minimum investment (Institutional GBP 500,000 EUR 500,000
share class)
Launch date 26-Jan-2006 06-Dec-2007
Annual management charge 0.85% 0.55%
(Institutional share class)
Performance Fee 20% of returns over benchmark 10% of returns over benchmark
Different solutions for different objectives
Different solutions for different objectives
34
36. Gary Saidler
Gary Saidler
Client Portfolio Manager – Asset Allocation
Gary joined the investment industry in 2003.
Main responsibilities
To communicate Aviva Investors tactical asset allocation and strategic asset allocation expertise to
clients and prospects.
Experience and qualifications
Gary joined Aviva Investors in May 2007.
Gary graduated from the University of Glasgow with a BSc (Honours) in Statistics. Prior to Aviva
Investors he worked in the investment consultancy industry. Gary is a CFA charterholder and has
completed the UKSIP Investment Management Certificate (IMC).
Page 36
37. Adrian Jarvis
Adrian Jarvis
Director of Strategy
Adrian joined the investment industry in 1990.
Main Responsibilities
Adrian chairs the Asset Allocation Committee, responsible for establishing the asset mix of Aviva
Investors balanced fund mandates and is ultimately responsible for monitoring performance and
risk control measures across portfolios.
Experience and qualifications
Adrian joined the firm (as Norwich Union Investment Management Ltd (NUIM)) in 2000 as Senior
Quantitative Analyst with responsibility for developing NUIM’s quantitative research capabilities.
He has held the position of Head of Strategy, responsible investment strategy, quantitative
research and quant funds leading the team of economists, strategy and index fund managers and
derivatives specialists since February 2000.
Prior to joining NUIM Adrian spent three years at NPI Asset Management, during which time he
was promoted from Director of Strategy & Quantitative Analysis to Head of Global Asset Allocation.
Previously he gained extensive investment experience at CIN Management as Assistant Director of
Global Asset Allocation and Shell International as Senior Quantitative Analyst.
Adrian holds a BSc and MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics, and studied
Investment Management at the London Business School.
37
38. Steve Cleal
Steve Cleal
Asset Allocation Fund Management
Steve joined the investment industry in 1987.
Main responsibilities
As a member of Aviva Investors Asset Allocation Committee, Steve helps formulate the House
Strategy for investment markets.
He is also responsible for Managing Aviva Investors range of asset allocation mandates.
Experience and qualifications
Steve joined the firm (as Norwich Union Investment Management) in 1987.
Prior to being appointed Head of Asset Allocation Fund Management in 2009, Steve had a number
of roles including managing multi-asset funds and generating the firm's view on the UK and North
American economies.
He has worked closely with a number of internal and external clients, providing guidance on
investment and strategic issues.
Steve holds a BA (Hons) from Keele University and the UKSIP Investment Management
Certificate.
38
39. Hassan Johaadien
Hassan Johaadien
Head of TAA Research
Hassan joined the investment industry in 1995.
Main responsibilities
To develop and apply Aviva Investors process for Tactical Asset Allocation to create better
benchmarks for client funds and identify special opportunities. Also to develop Aviva Investors
TAA models and use them to propose tactical trades for Asset Allocation Committee for which
Hassan is a member.
Experience and qualifications
Hassan joined Aviva Investors in July 2005.
Previously he worked for Shell Pensions as Head of Research.
Hassan holds a BSc in Statistics, Computing and Economics from University College London. He
also holds the UKSIP Investment Management Certificate.
39
41. We are part of Aviva plc
Long-term Asset General
savings management insurance
Asia Europe North America UK
World’s fifth-largest insurance group and the largest insurance services provider in the UK*
50 million customers worldwide**
54,000 employees**
Committed to building Aviva brand worldwide
Strength and stability
Strength and stability
*Based on gross worldwide premiums for the year ended 31 December 2008. ** As at 30 June 2009 41
42. Aviva Investors is a global asset manager
Over £249 billion under management % AuM by asset class
across all asset classes Real Estate
10%
Over 1,300 employees at Aviva Investors Other
4%
Significant growth potential
Liquidity
Fixed Income
10%
54%
Enhanced capability available to clients
across borders
Equity
22%
Breadth and depth of resources
Breadth and depth of resources
Data as at 31 December 2009 42
43. Operating in 16 countries
Europe
Headcount: 1,008 UK
France Poland
Luxembourg Germany
Romania Spain Asia-Pacific
Headcount: 78
Eire Italy Australia
China
Singapore
Taiwan
UAE
North America
Headcount: 215
US
Canada
Global scale, local knowledge
Global scale, local knowledge
43
Data as at 31 December 2009.
44. Important information (1)
Except where stated as otherwise, the source of all information is Aviva Investors Global Services Limited (Aviva Investors)
as at 28 February 2010.
Any opinions expressed are based on the internal forecasts of Aviva Investors and they should not be relied upon as
indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Aviva Investors. No part of this document is intended to
constitute advice or recommendations of any nature.
Performance figures sourced from Lipper Hindsight and illustrated on a bid to bid, gross income reinvested basis in the
currency shown. Other information sourced from Aviva Investors. The value of an investment in the fund can go down as
well as up and can fluctuate in response to changes in exchange rates. Past performance is not a guide to the future.
The distribution and offering of shares may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. This document should not be taken
as a recommendation or offer by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such an offer is not authorised or to any person to whom
it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation.
For Germany: Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts of the SICAV are
available free of charge from Aviva Investors Global Services Limited, Zweigniederlassung Deutschland - An der
Hauptwache 7, 60313 Frankfurt am Main, Deutschland or from Aviva Investors, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930
Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.
For Austria: The "Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG", Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna, has been appointed by the
Company as the paying agent within the meaning of § 34 InvFG. Accordingly, the redemption of shares can be made via the
"Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG", Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna. The prospectus, the articles of association, the last
annual report and the semi-annual report, once published, are available at the office of the "Raiffeisen Zentralbank
Österreich AG", Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna or from Aviva Investors Luxembourg, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-
1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.
44