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Aviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund



Luxembourg, 22nd April 2010

Gary Saidler, Client Portfolio Manager
Katrin Ostermeier, Business Development Director
This document is for investment professionals only. The content is not approved for use with retail
investors or pension scheme members.




                                                                                                      2
Asset Allocation: Harder than it looks!
N. America   Asia Pac     Property     UK Credit    Global FI    Em Mkts      Em Mkts      Japan        Em Mkts      Em Mkts
29%          84%          11%          7%           17%          56%          26%          45%          33%          40%


Europe       Em Mkts      UK Credit    Property     Property     Asia Pac     Property     Em Mkts      Asia Pac     Asia Pac
25%          66%          10%          7%           10%          44%          19%          35%          30%          37%


World        Japan        O/S Govt     O/S Govt     UK Credit    World        World        Europe       Europe       World
25%          47%          8%           5%           9%           34%          15%          29%          22%          10%


UK Credit    Europe       Cash         Cash         O/S Govt     N. America   Europe       Asia Pac     World        Global FI
15%          37%          5%           4%           8%           30%          13%          27%          21%          9%


UK Equity    World        Global FI    Global FI    Cash         Japan        UK Equity    UK Equity    Property     N. America
14%          25%          3%           2%           3%           23%          13%          22%          18%          8%


Global FI    UK Equity    Europe       Em Mkts      Em Mkts      Europe       N. America   Property     UK Equity    Europe       50%
14%          24%          -1%          -2%          -6%          21%          11%          19%          17%          7%
                                                                                                                                  Difference
                                                                                                                                  in 2007
Property     N. America   UK Equity    Asia Pac     Asia Pac     UK Equity    Japan        World        N. America   UK Equity
12%          23%          -6%          -4%          -14%         21%          11%          10%          7%           5%


O/S Govt     Property     N. America   N. America   Japan        Global FI    Global FI    UK Credit    Japan        Cash
9%           14%          -12%         -12%         -19%         13%          9%           9%           7.35%        5%


Cash         Cash         World        UK Equity    World        Property     Asia Pac     N. America   Global FI    O/S Govt
6%           4%           -13%         -13%         -20%         11%          7%           -7%          7%           4%


Japan        UK Credit    Japan        World        N. America   UK Credit    UK Credit    Cash         Cash         UK Credit
-9%          0.1%         -20%         -17%         -22%         0.8%         7%           4%           4%           0.4%


Asia Pac     O/S Govt     Em Mkts      Europe       UK Equity    Cash         O/S Govt     O/S Govt     UK Credit    Property
-9%          -1%          -31%         -18%         -23%         3%           5%           4%           0.8%         -5%


Em Mkts      Global FI    Asia Pac     Japan        Europe       O/S Govt     Cash         Global FI    O/S Govt     Japan
-25%         -5%          -36%         -19%         -32%         2%           4%           -4%          0.7%         -10%



1998         1999         2000         2001          2002         2003        2004          2005         2006 2007
                                                                                                                                  Page 3
Overview of tactical asset allocation strategies

    Dynamic strategy capturing short term opportunities across the asset spectrum
         Equities/bonds/currencies/other e.g. property
         UK, US, Europe, Japan and Asia
         Balanced portfolio of relative value and directional trades


    Diversified long/short positions in highly liquid and cost effective derivatives e.g.
         Equity/bond index futures
         Currency forwards
         Property swap




The graph is for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the types of asset classes that we may take positions in. The list is not exhaustive.


                                           Highly liquid strategy utilising a wide opportunity set
                                           Highly liquid strategy utilising a wide opportunity set
                                                                                                                                                   4
Absolute Tactical Asset Allocation track record

          Ucits III Sicav launched 26 January 2006
          AUM – over £700m


          High risk-adjusted returns**
               Fund return 10.9% p.a. net since launch
               Fund historical volatility of 8.1% p.a. since launch


          Process applied since 1999
               Across a variety of mandates targeting different returns
               Achieved 94% target return since launch*




*From 1 January ‘99 to 31 March ‘10.
** Source: Lipper as at 31 March 2010, volatility calculated from monthly returns sourced from Lipper/Hindsight. Performance shown net of fees for I share class.
Past performance is not a guide to the future.



                                                                     High risk-adjusted returns
                                                                     High risk-adjusted returns
                                                                                                                                                                    5
Improved risk return profile


                                                                                                                                                   Risk-return profile with
                                                                                                                                                   TAA

                                                      1 Month Libor                                                                                Risk-return profile
                                                          -0.01                                                                                    without TAA
                                                      FTA All Stocks




                                                                                         Return
                                                          -0.05

                                                       Lehman Global
                                                       Agg -0.09

                          FTSE World Europe
                            ex UK -0.30

                         MSCI World                                                                                           Risk
                           -0.37

                           FTSE All Share
                               -0.30                                                              Initial portfolio with optimised strategic allocation

                                                                                                  Improved return expectations for the same level of risk

     -0.4       -0.3       -0.2       -0.1        0            0.1       0.2
                                                                                                  Improved risk profile for an identical level of return




                                                               A valuable additional source of returns
Correlations uses quarterly ‘alpha’ performance data from UK pooled pension fund TAA Overlay (Q1’99-Q2’05) and standalone GTAA mandates (Q3’05-Q1’10).
Index returns are in local currency.
                                                                                                                                                                         6
Key decision makers for this fund

Adrian Jarvis                                                    The Asset Allocation Committee (AAC) uses
                                                                 experience and judgement to identify and weigh
Fund Manager                                                     opportunities presented by our research
Joined industry in 1990
With Aviva Investors since 2000                                  Able to draw on the talent and insight of the wider
                                                                 strategy team

Steve Cleal                                                      All roles 100% dedicated to the management of
Fund Manager                                                     asset allocation funds

Joined industry in 1987
With Aviva Investors since 1987


Hassan Johaadien

Head of Tactical Asset Allocation
Research
Joined industry in 1995
With Aviva Investors since 2005
Source: Aviva Investors 31 December 2009


                                           An experienced and stable team
                                           An experienced and stable team
                                                                                                                       7
Process supported by large team of specialists
                                                                  Fund Managers
   Helge Kostka                                                                                                              Gary Saidler
                                                                                        Steve Cleal*
                                            Adrian Jarvis*
   Head of CPM –                                                                        Head of Asset Allocation             Client Portfolio
    Investment                              Head of Strategy                                                                Manager – Asset
                                                                                        Fund Management
     Solutions                              20 years experience                                                                 Allocation
                                                                                        22 years experience




                             Strategic Asset            Tactical Asset                                    Analytics &
    Economics                                                                     Strategy                                     Implementation
                                Allocation                Allocation                                       Research

                                                           Hassan                                            Niral
                            Mirko Cardinale                                   Haydn Davies                                       Jonathan
 Stewart Robertson                                       Johaadien*                                         Shukla
                            Head of Strategic                                                                                    Abrahams
  Senior Economist                                     Head of Tactical                                 TAA Modelling &
                            Asset Allocation                                                                                    Head of MAF
   (UK & Europe)                                       Asset Allocation     Currency Strategist          Performance
                               Research                                                                                        Implementation
                                                          Research                                         Analyst


    David Hillier                                          Sergio                                       Anna Greaves
                           Maulshree Saroliya                                Supriya Menon                                    Carmen Magness
                                                           Ferreira
  Senior Economist           Strategic Asset                                                           Research Assistant           MAF
                                                       Asset Allocation      Macro Strategist
     (Americas)             Allocation Analyst                                                                                 Implementation
                                                          Analyst



   Shamik Dhar
                            Bruno Serdoura               Ying Jiang                                    Amien Johaadien         Nichola Guinn
 Senior Economist            Strategic Asset           Asset Allocation                                                             MAF
                            Allocation Analyst            Analyst                                      Systems Developer
       Asia                                                                                                                    Implementation




                             Andrzej Pioch                                                                                      Sukh Sangha
                             Strategic Asset                                                                                        MAF
                            Allocation Analyst                                                                                 Implementation

                                                                                                                                                8
 * Member of the Asset Allocation Committee
Investment process – key stages




 Investment
  Economic                        Optimal
              Forecasting                              Portfolio
                                                       Portfolio
  scenario                        portfolio                              Implementation
                                                                          Implementation
                returns                                selection
   analysis                       analysis




              Combines the best of quantitative and qualitative inputs
              Combines the best of quantitative and qualitative inputs
                                                                                           9
Forecasting returns


  Example scenarios:
                                                                                          Return forecasts
Two-Speed World
     40%                                      Economic fundamentals
                                                                                             Equities
                                                                                              Equities
                                                Profile for next 2 years for:                  Equities
Liquidity Abounds                                                                               Equities
       15%                                        GDP
                                                  Inflation                                   Bonds
                                                                                               Bonds
                                                  Interest rates                                Bonds
                                                                                                 Bonds
                                                  Exports
    Recovery                                      Corporate profits                         Currencies
      20%                                                                                    Currencies
                                                  etc                                         Currencies
                                                                                                Currencies
                                                                                              Other
                                                                                              Credit
                                                                                              assets
  Policy Error                                                                                 Credit
                                                                                                Credit
      25%                                                                                         Credit
                                                                                              Other
                                                                                               Other




Source: Aviva Investors 29 March 2010


                              Output: a set of asset return forecasts for each scenario
                              Output: a set of asset return forecasts for each scenario
                                                                                                             10
Decision 15 September 2008: Adding value when
   our uncertainty is at its highest



                                                           50%                     30%                      20%
                                           Global hard landing           Recovery                 Depression



             Idea 1:
                                               Expected impact:      Expected impact:           Expected impact:
         credit spreads
                                                   +1.6%                 +3.4%                       -0.4%
            tighten
              Idea 2:
                                               Expected impact:      Expected impact:           Expected impact:
          interest rates
                                                   +1.5%                  -1.4%                     +6.3%
            decrease
             Positions                         Expected impact:      Expected impact:           Expected impact:
             combined                               +3%                   +2%                        +6%


                                       We select portfolios to add value across all scenarios
                                       We select portfolios to add value across all scenarios
Source: Aviva Investors as at September 2008                                                                       11
Aviva Investors Asset Allocation –
     07 April 2010

                     Implementation for ATAA Fund
                       Libor +15% p.a. net target                          Relative risk-adjusted size of active positions
   Euro Stoxx 50            -45%
            DAX                               +10%
          TOPIX                                +20%
         S&P 500                              +10%                                                    Equity Market Direction
         ASX 200                    -10%                                                                       0%
                                                                                            Others                              Equity Relative Value
      Hang Seng                               +5%                                            12%                                        18%
          KOSPI                               +5%
       Singapore                              +5%
10Y SONIA Swap              -50%
   UK 10Y Bond                                      +50%
   AU 10Y Bond                 -35%
   CN 10Y Bond              -50%
   GE 10Y Bond                                             +75%              Currency
     IT 10Y Bond          -60%                                                 23%
   US 10Y Bond         -80%
    JP 10Y Bond              -40%
            GBP                       -5%
                                                                                                                                          Bond Market Direction
             SEK                                +20%                                                                                             27%
            CHF                               +5%
             PLN                              +5%
            KRW                                +10%
            NZD                 -20%
             JPY                -20%                                                    Bond Relative Value
                                                                                              20%
            EUR              -40%
            CNY                                +15%
            AUD                                 +25%
            CAD                               +5%
   UK IPD Swap                                 +10%
     US 2Y Bond     -100%

     Equities +0%      Bonds -190%          Currency +0%      Other -90%
                                                                                                                                                        Page 12
Independent, centralised risk management team
Daily monitoring, analysis and control

                                     Value at Risk ensures regulatory limits met daily using proprietary model
Value at Risk                        Stress testing to analyse impact of extreme events
                                     Contribution to risk broken out for individual asset and asset classes
                                     Daily monitoring and a formal monthly meeting with fund managers

Stress Testing                   Event                            Date (*)              1 Day   1 Week   1 Month   1 Year

                                 Black Monday                     19th October 1987     -1.76    -2.78    -3.27     3.30

                                 Asian Crisis                     2nd July 1997         -0.43    -2.06    -2.14    -31.34

                                 Global Crash                     27th October 1997     -1.09    -1.72    -1.34    -15.90
 Contribution
   to Risk                       Russian Crisis/LTCM              31st August 1998      0.46     -0.36    1.18     34.31

                                 Dot-Com                          14th April 2000       -0.61    -2.31    -2.09    -18.67

                                 Sep 11th 2001 (WTC)              11th September 2001   2.14     -1.86    -4.22     0.69

                                 WorldCom/Enron                   17th July 2002        1.14     0.12     2.65     -0.61

                                 Global Credit Crisis (2007/08)   20th June 2007        1.06     0.70     2.84      3.03

                                 Lehman Bros Bankruptcy           15th Sep 2008         0.26     0.97     -2.51     4.15


(*) Estimated event start date not always clearly identifiable.
Source: Aviva Investors 3 March 2010
                                                                                                                            13
Tactical asset allocation summary

Fund design offers high risk-adjusted returns in any market environment


Diversification benefits when mixed with conventional assets


Scenario analysis offers capital protection across uncertain investment environment


Team of dedicated asset allocation specialists offers depth of experience and breadth of skills




                                                                                                  14
Appendix
Example: summary of return optimisation inputs




                                                       Two-Speed      Liquidity
                                                         World        Abounds        Recovery       Policy Error     Weighted
                                       Weight:            40%            20%           20%              20%
                                         Obs:            2000           1000           1000            1000
                                        UK eq             7.3%         14.5%          19.0%           -17.0%            6.2%
                                        US eq             8.0%         16.0%          21.0%           -19.0%            6.8%
                                        EU eq             3.0%         21.0%          21.0%           -24.0%            4.8%
                                        JP eq            16.0%         24.0%          24.0%           -29.0%           10.2%
                                         STI             14.5%         25.5%          40.5%           -26.5%           13.7%
                                      HangSeng           13.4%         22.4%          35.4%           -23.6%           12.2%
                                        KOSPI            14.0%         23.5%          46.5%           -25.0%           14.6%
                                        TAIEX            15.3%         38.8%          41.3%           -34.7%           15.2%
                                       Aust_SPI           9.0%         14.0%          27.5%           -22.5%            7.4%
                                    IPD Swap 2012        10.3%         18.3%          28.8%           -22.0%            9.1%
                                       EURJPY             2.5%          5.4%           7.2%            -7.2%            2.1%
                                      UK 10y bo           3.8%          3.8%          -7.9%             3.8%            1.4%
                                      US 10y bo           4.7%          4.7%          -7.5%             4.7%            2.3%
                                      EU 10y bo           2.6%          2.6%          -5.1%             2.6%            1.1%
                                      JP 10y bo           2.0%          2.0%          -2.6%             2.0%            1.1%
                                      AU 10y bo           2.3%          -1.0%         -4.2%             2.3%            0.3%

                                   Source: Aviva Investors Strategy team, based on scenario returns



The graph is for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the types of asset classes that we may take positions in. The list is not exhaustive.



                                                                                                                                                   16
Example: optimisation and portfolio selection


                                         Two-Speed        Liquidity                                       Returns        Holdings
                             Initial       World          Abounds         Recovery      Policy Error      Blended        Blended               AAC
                           Template       Optimal         Optimal          Optimal       Optimal          Optimal        Optimal             Proposal
      Equities                             +84%             +55%            +69%          -160%            +64%           +36%                 +15%     +15%
     Govt Bonds              -120%         -60%             +5%             -302%         -103%            -283%          -245%               -190%     -70%
       Other

    Returns Under
  Two-Speed World           +6.2%           +21.9%         +17.4%          +8.4%           -12.9%         +16.3%          +20.2%              +6.3%     +0.1%
  Liquidity Abounds         +6.1%           +28.2%         +38.9%          +8.5%           -21.1%         +24.3%          +26.6%              +9.1%     +3.0%
      Recovery              +16.4%          +24.4%         +15.5%          +53.2%          -32.8%         +41.0%          +27.1%              +22.3%    +5.9%
     Policy Error            -6.6%          -27.8%         -25.3%          -22.9%          +37.1%         -20.4%          -18.4%               -6.2%    +0.4%

  Weighted Average           +5.0%          +10.9%          +9.5%           +9.6%           -5.6%         +13.3%          +12.9%               +6.8%    +1.8%

  Expected Volatility       +12.4%          +20.0%         +20.0%          +20.0%          +20.0%         +20.0%          +20.0%              +13.8%    +1.4%
  Information Ratio          0.41                                                                                                              0.49

Source: Aviva Investors Strategy team, based on scenario returns




   The graph is for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the types of asset classes that we may take positions in. The list is not exhaustive.




                                                                                                                                                                17
Our credentials

  Experience

    Key decision makers with over 50 years combined experience in TAA

    Stable team of 20 dedicated asset allocation specialists

  Process

    Unique blend of quantitative and qualitative analysis

    Focus on capital preservation

  Performance

    No down years in 11 years

    Performance particularly strong in times of market stress




                                                                        18
Fund performance since launch
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund (GBP)

                                                               Performance versus benchmark since inception to 31 March 2010
160

150

140

130

120

110

100

 90
      26/01/2006
                     13/03/2006
                                  26/04/2006
                                               09/06/2006
                                                            25/07/2006
                                                                         07/09/2006
                                                                                      23/10/2006
                                                                                                   06/12/2006
                                                                                                                19/01/2007
                                                                                                                              06/03/2007
                                                                                                                                           19/04/2007
                                                                                                                                                        04/06/2007
                                                                                                                                                                      18/07/2007
                                                                                                                                                                                   31/08/2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                16/10/2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                              29/11/2007
                                                                                                                                                                                                                           14/01/2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        27/02/2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     11/04/2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  27/05/2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               10/07/2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            25/08/2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         08/10/2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      21/11/2008
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   06/01/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                19/02/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             06/04/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              20/05/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           03/07/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        18/08/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     01/10/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  16/11/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               30/12/2009
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            12/02/2010
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         30/03/2010
                                                                                                         Aviva Investors Absolute TAA I(MF)                                                                                                                                    LIBOR GBP 1 Month (IN)

                                                                                                                  1 Month                               3 Months                                6 Months                                        YTD                              1 Year                                3 Year                                5 Year                                       Since
                                                                                                                     %                                     %                                       %                                             %                                  %                                  % p.a.                                % p.a.                                     Launch %
                   Aviva Investors Absolute TAA
                                                                                                                             1.23                                    3.60                                    6.66                                3.60                                  9.29                               31.39                                           -                                     53.80
                   I(MF)
                   LIBOR GBP 1 Month (IN)                                                                                    0.05                                    0.13                                    0.26                                0.13                                  0.62                               11.51                                           -                                     18.09
                   Source: Aviva Investors/Lipper Hindsight as at 31/03/2010. Data is representative of share class I and is provided net of fees w ith gross income reinvested in GBP
                   Figures do not take into account the costs incurred on the issue and redemption of shares. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      19
Fund performance since launch
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund EUR hedged

                        Performance versus benchmark since inception to 31 March 2010
 125

 120

 115

 110

 105

 100

  95

  90

  85

  80
 28/08/2007 26/11/2007 22/02/2008 22/05/2008 20/08/2008 18/11/2008 16/02/2009 15/05/2009 13/08/2009 11/11/2009 09/02/2010

                          Aviva Investors Absolute TAA I EUR Hedge (MF)                                         EURIBOR 1 Month (IN)

                                                 1 Month        3 Months       6 Months           YTD           1 Year          3 Year          5 Year         Since
                                                    %              %              %                %            % p.a.          % p.a.          % p.a.       Launch %
          Aviva Investors Absolute TAA
                                                   1.26            3.69            6.43           3.69            9.22              -              -             21.00
          I EUR Hedge (MF)

          EURIBOR 1 Month (IN)                     0.04            0.11            0.22           0.11            0.62              -              -             7.22
          Source: Lipper Hindsight as at 31/03/2010. Data is representative of share class I and is provided net of fees w ith gross income reinvested in EUR.
          Figures do not take into account the costs incurred on the issue and redemption of shares. Past performance is not a guide to the future.
                                                                                                                                                                         20
Fund performance since launch
Aviva Investors Absolute TAA 5 Fund (EUR)

                     Performance versus benchmark since inception to 31 March 2010
  110


  108


  106


  104


  102


  100


   98


   96
  06/12/2007   05/03/2008        03/06/2008        01/09/2008        28/11/2008       26/02/2009        27/05/2009        25/08/2009        23/11/2009       19/02/2010
                                        Aviva Investors Absolute TAA 5 I EUR (MF)                                        EURIBOR 1 Month (IN)


                                           1 Month        3 Months        6 Months           YTD           1 Year         3 Year          5 Year          Since
                                              %              %               %                %              %            % p.a.          % p.a.        Launch %
          Aviva Investors Absolute
                                              0.30            0.95           1.93            0.95           2.36              -               -             8.38
          TAA 5 I EUR (MF)

          EURIBOR 1 Month (IN)                0.04            0.11           0.22            0.11           0.62              -               -             5.95

          Source: Lipper Hindsight as at 31/03/2010. Data is representative of share class I and is provided net of fees w ith gross income reinvested in EUR.
          Figures do not take into account the costs incurred on the issue and redemption of shares. Past performance is not a guide to the future.

                                                                                                                                                                          21
Aviva Investors Investment Strategy Team - investment scenarios and positioning – 07th April 2010
                                                Scenarios focus on evolution of the global recovery


    Two-Speed World                        Liquidity Abounds                          Recovery                                Policy Error
                                                  15%                                   20%                                       25%
         40%

  The sub-par recovery plods along in      Variant of Two-Speed World –          Global synchronised recovery gathers      Policymakers have taken
  US/EU/UK. Financial system in            Asia / EM policymakers refuse to      pace. Past cycles show sharpest           extreme measures to prevent a
  recovery with ongoing deleveraging,      allow currencies to appreciate,       upturns follow sharpest downturns –       financial meltdown / global
  private credit weak, consumers wary.     leading to excess credit creation.    this was worst recession in 80 years      depression. Asset markets could
  Risk of further US housing weakness.     Bubbles develop in Asia / EM          with largest output gap.                  be adversely affected through a
  Asia / EM enjoy strong cyclical          Real Estate + Equities.               Impact of policy stimulus leads to        number of channels:
  recovery, driving global growth
                                           Risk of US Treasury bubble            upside growth surprise in US.                 Withdrawal of QE - may
  forward. Strong mix of loose policy,
                                           driven by central bank recycling      Employment recovers Q1, supporting            cause bond market volatility.
  commodity strength, improving
                                           of savings.                           housing and consumption.
  domestic demand with no credit                                                                                               Interest rate hikes /
  overhang.                                Structural commodity story is still   Global imbalances build – US current          premature fiscal tightening -
  Equity boost from strong profits, esp.   intact; combines with excess          account deteriorates, EM economies            may create fear of double
  where currencies cheap, but re-rating    liquidity to push commodity           resume export-led growth model.               dip recession.
  phase over.                              complex still higher in 2010,         Profits beat expectations; equity rally       Protectionism - may trigger
                                           particularly for those with supply    continues, albeit with sporadic sell-
  Support from QE/Banks/Investor                                                                                               trade war / geopolitical
                                           constraints.                          offs on rate hike fears.
  demand helps Treasury yields remain                                                                                          instability.
  range bound. Credit spreads narrow       Risk of 2011 recession if oil         Growing risk central banks behind the     Risk aversion rises - equities,
  modestly.                                prices approach 2008 peak.            curve on inflation; bonds sell off; $ /   credit, bonds suffer; cash & gold
  US$ remains weak, with counter-trend                                           commodities rally.                        provide safe havens.
  rallies. Yen vulnerable once Fed fund
  hikes in view.
Scenarios and Positioning – Current rationales
7 April 2010

Asset allocation stance reflects best positioning for next 6-9 months against all scenarios plus short-term timing opportunities

      Equity Market              Equity Relative              Bond Market               Bond Relative
                                                                                                                       Currency                    Other
        Direction                    Value                     Direction                   Value
    Moderate gains for          Econ. fundamentals         Short duration. Next       Japanese nominal            Highlights:              Inflows support UK
    equities expected in        more supportive of         move for short rates is    bonds are thematic                                   commercial property;
                                                                                                                  AUD, SEK - process
    H110 under first three      Asian markets.             up and phase of cycle is   short given debt trap                                Long swap position
                                                                                                                  favours rate hike
    scenarios driven by                                    bond -ve. Low short        and demographics.                                    held.
                                Europe least favoured                                                             currencies.
    profits, not re-ratings.                               rates & deleveraging
                                given economic strains                                Italian BTP spread over                              Short US 2Y Notes;
                                                           creating sovereign                                     KRW – value, Asian
    Policy Error scenario       and expensive euro.                                   Bunds expected to                                    market likely to start
                                                           demand.                                                appreciation.
    would be very negative      Japan offers short-term                               widen should EU                                      pricing in more rate
    for equities.               opportunity given strong   Yield risks on upside      funding concerns            EUR – still expensive,   rises.
                                flows and expected Yen     from high issuance &       resurface.                  poor econ. outlook,
    Short-term technicals                                                                                                                  Macro fund holds:
                                weakness.                  specific sovereign-                                    sovereign debt crises.
    show mkt is overbought.                                                           Swap spreads overly
                                                           related credit concerns.                                                        -Long gold; inflation /
                                Fund tilt towards                                     pessimistic about risk of   JPY – expensive,
    Neutral position for now.                              Offsetting demand from                                                          deflation hedge .
                                markets that are more                                 UK government default.      potential for more QE.
                                                           QE now ending.                                                                  -Short Eurostoxx50
                                robust to Policy Error.
                                                                                      Upside risks to AU + CN
                                                                                                                                           correlation; position for
                                                                                      yields.
                                                                                                                                           greater stock selection
                                                                                      End of QE + stronger                                 in 2010.
                                                                                      data to put upward
                                                                                      pressure on US yields.




                                                                                                                                                                       23
Scenarios and positioning - summary of recent
 changes -
 07 April 2010

  Date                           Change (Global Macro)                                                                          Rationale
10-Feb-10                 Reduce size of Eurostoxx short by 30%                             Market oversold, risk that some relief on Greek deficit issues causes snap back.
            "Liquidity Abounds" from 20% to 15%, "Policy Error" from 20% to 25%                  China tightening and EU weakness changes the probability distribution.
15-Feb-10                   Buy 12% S&P; sell 12% Eurostoxx                         Near term risks of a sharp relief rally in Europe have receded. Profits in US to exceed euro profits
                                 Sell 100% US 2yr bonds                                         Rate rises in the US likely to exceed profile discounted by short rate curve
                               Buy 15% AUD; sell 15% CAD                                   AUD has fallen recently and has interest rate support and relatively strong economy
                          Buy 6% EUR; sell 5% GBP; sell 1% JPY                                                  Reflect GBP's recent rise against the euro
                         Buy 10% SEK; sell 5% NOK; sell 5% GBP                                                    Trade following currency model output
22-Feb-10        Sell 10% Eurostoxx, 10% S&P500 and 10% Australia SPI                             Markets up strongly over past few weeks and are no longer oversold
                   Sell 5% NOK and 5% AUD; Buy 5% CAD and 5% PLN                                                  Trade following currency model output
24-Feb-10       Sell 60% BTP bonds; buy 15% German 10y and 15% UK 10y                       Italian bonds expected to suffer greater funding concerns than Germany and UK
                   Buy 5% SEK and 5% CAD; sell 5% NOK and 5% GBP                                                  Trade following currency model output
01-Mar-10                     Buy 5% SEK; sell 5% GBP                                 SEK well supported by fundamantals. Concerns over minority government to weigh on GBP
02-Mar-10                   Buy 10yr gilts; sell 10yr SONIA                                       Swap spreads overly pessimistic about risk of UK government default
08-Mar-10          Buy 5% CAD and 5% SEK; Sell 5% NOK and 5% NZD                                                  Trade following currency model output
                       Buy 5% AUD and 5% USD; Sell 10% JPY                                            JPY is overvalued and could suffer if risk appetite increases
10-Mar-10      Buy 10% DAX & 15% FTSE100; sell 5% Taiwan & 5% TOPIX               Temporary fix for Greek sovereign crisis, weak £ benefits UK, equity mix protects against Policy Error
            Buy 45% Bunds; Sell 15% Gilts & 50% Aus bonds & 50% Can bonds                        Upside risks to Aus, Can yields; use Bunds to fully offset BTP short now
22-Mar-10                           Sell 5% Eurostoxx                                                       Lock in some profit following recent equity bounce
                               Buy 10% USD; Sell 10% JPY                                   USD fundamentlaly cheap vs JPY and supported by stronger economic momentum
                              Buy 5% CHF; Sell 5% EUR                                                            Trade following currency model output
29-Mar-10                      Buy 5% USD; Sell 5% JPY                                                           Trade following currency model output
             Buy 50% JP 10y, buy 15% Aus 10y and Eur 10y; Sell 80% US 10y           End of QE to put upward pressure on US yields. Take profit on Jap and Aus short bond positions
06-Apr-10                         Sell 10% FTSE100                                                   Neutralise equity long after strong rally. UK market overbought
                         Buy 10% TOPIX, Sell 10% Eurostoxx                              Japanese equities to receive support from weakening Yen. Market also relatively cheap
07-Apr-10                      Buy 5% GBP; Sell 5% JPY                                            Sterling very cheap and election likely to bring some fiscal realism
                              Buy 5% CAD; Sell 5% EUR                                      Canadian economy strengthening, rates likely to rise more quickly than in Europe
                              Buy 5% SEK; Sell 5% NOK                                                            Trade following currency model output


               The % changes shown are on the template for funds targeting 15% p.a net outperformance (ATAA, GMAA and Global Macro).
               For our funds with other levels of target outperformance positions are scaled accordingly, e.g. ATAA5 changes are ¼ of these.
                                                                                                                                                                                 Page 24
Aviva Investors Asset Allocation –
   29 March 2010
   Implementation for Absolute TAA 5 Fund
         Libor +3.75% p.a. net target                                        Relative risk-adjusted size of active positions

        FTSE 100                             +3%
   Euro Stoxx 50             -9%
            DAX                              +3%                                                    Equity Market Direction
          TOPIX                              +3%                                        Others               5%
         S&P 500                             +3%                                         13%
                                                                                                                        Equity Relative Value
         ASX 200                    -3%
                                                                                                                                13%
      Hang Seng                             +1%
          KOSPI                             +1%
       Singapore                            +1%
10Y SONIA Swap             -13%
   UK 10Y Bond                                      +13%
   AU 10Y Bond                -9%
   CN 10Y Bond             -13%
                                                                        Currency
   GE 10Y Bond                                           +19%             21%
     IT 10Y Bond         -15%
   US 10Y Bond        -20%
    JP 10Y Bond             -10%
            GBP                     -3%
             SEK                              +4%
            CHF                             +1%                                                                                 Bond Market Direction
            NOK                             +1%                                                                                        27%
             PLN                            +1%
            KRW                              +3%
            NZD                -5%
             JPY                -4%
                                                                              Bond Relative Value
            EUR              -9%
                                                                                    21%
            CNY                               +4%
            AUD                                +6%
   UK IPD Swap                               +3%
     US 2Y Bond     -25%

     Equities +3%      Bonds -48%         Currency +0%     Other -23%


                                                                                                                                                        25
Long-term track record
Founding client, target return contribution 1% p.a., 01/01/99 to 31/03/10

                                                  Long Term GTAA Quarterly performance
                                     Actual return 0.94% p.a., volatility 1.09% p.a., risk adjusted return 0.86*

                                           Long Term GTAA1.1%, information ratio of 0.85
                                            Performance +0.94%, volatility
                                                                           Quarterly Performance

                 +2.50

                 +2.00
                 +1.50
                 +1.00
       Alpha %




                 +0.50


                 -0.50
                 -1.00
                 -1.50

                 -2.00
                     Q1 1999 Q1 2000 Q1 2001 Q1 2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010

                                                        Actual quarterly GTAA strategy return      Target per quarter
Past performance is not a guide to future performance

*Source: Aviva Investors. Alpha composite performance gross of fees. Composite relates to the AIPL Balanced Managed Overlay (Q4’98-Q1’05)
and a standalone GTAA mandate (Q2’05-Q4’07), ATAA Fund Q108 to Q110. Scaled to 1% p.a. volatility and alpha target. GBP.

                                                 Consistent returns over the long-term
                                                 Consistent returns over the long-term
                                                                                                                                            26
ATAA monthly gross of fees attribution by decision

                                                                              Monthly Contribution to +20% Fund GOF Alpha by Decision


                           10.00%
                                                                                   Return Target: UK 1M LIBOR GBP + 20% p.a Gross of Fees

                           8.00%


                           6.00%


                           4.00%
      Alpha Contribution




                           2.00%


                           0.00%


                           -2.00%


                           -4.00%


                           -6.00%


                           -8.00%
                                  06




                                                   6


                                                             6




                                                                          6

                                                                                   07




                                                                                                    7


                                                                                                              7




                                                                                                                           7

                                                                                                                                    08




                                                                                                                                                     8


                                                                                                                                                               8




                                                                                                                                                                            8

                                                                                                                                                                                      09




                                                                                                                                                                                                       9


                                                                                                                                                                                                                 9




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              9
                                          6




                                                                          6




                                                                                           7




                                                                                                                           7




                                                                                                                                            8




                                                                                                                                                                            8




                                                                                                                                                                                              9




                                                                                                                                                                                                                              9
                                                    0


                                                            0




                                                                                                     0


                                                                                                             0




                                                                                                                                                      0


                                                                                                                                                              0




                                                                                                                                                                                                        0


                                                                                                                                                                                                                0
                                         r-0




                                                                    -0


                                                                       -0




                                                                                          r-0




                                                                                                                     -0


                                                                                                                        -0




                                                                                                                                           r-0




                                                                                                                                                                      -0


                                                                                                                                                                         -0




                                                                                                                                                                                             r-0




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        -0


                                                                                                                                                                                                                           -0
                               b-




                                                 n-


                                                         g-




                                                                                b-




                                                                                                  n-


                                                                                                          g-




                                                                                                                                 b-




                                                                                                                                                   n-


                                                                                                                                                           g-




                                                                                                                                                                                   b-




                                                                                                                                                                                                     n-


                                                                                                                                                                                                             g-
                                                                                                                      ec




                                                                                                                                                                       ec




                                                                                                                                                                                                                         ec
                                                                     ec
                                                                  ct




                                                                                                                   ct




                                                                                                                                                                    ct




                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ct
                                       Ap




                                                                                        Ap




                                                                                                                                         Ap




                                                                                                                                                                                           Ap
                             Fe




                                               Ju




                                                                              Fe




                                                                                                Ju




                                                                                                                               Fe




                                                                                                                                                 Ju




                                                                                                                                                                                 Fe




                                                                                                                                                                                                   Ju
                                                        Au




                                                                                                         Au




                                                                                                                                                          Au




                                                                                                                                                                                                            Au
                                                                 O




                                                                                                                  O




                                                                                                                                                                   O




                                                                                                                                                                                                                     O
                                                                    D




                                                                                                                     D




                                                                                                                                                                      D




                                                                                                                                                                                                                        D
                                                                     Equity Beta   Equity Market         S.T.I.R. (<5 Yrs)   L.T.I.R. Beta       L.T.I.R. Market      Currency     Other



 Source Aviva Investors Strategy Team as at end of December 2009. Short term interest rates (STIR), Long term interest rates (LTIR). 'Other' relates to the volatility trade (Vix
 future), CDS and UK commercial property swap. Attribution shown in GBP.



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  27
Risk management is integral to our process


                  Fund managers manage market risk by:
  Scenario
  Testing            Ensuring portfolios perform well across scenarios
                     Ensuring portfolio maintains good balance across six main asset risk categories
                     Sizing trades according to projected risk and level of conviction
   Portfolio         Managing overall leverage and risk level
Diversification


                                             AAC varies risk as shown below
Total portfolio                                                    Normal
  volatility                                        Current



                                   Low                                             High confidence in
                                   confidence in                                   mis-pricing
                                   mis-pricing
                                                   Minimum                  Maximum
                                                   0% volatility            + 30% volatility




                                                                                                        28
Historic Value at Risk (VaR) within the Fund




Source: Aviva Investors as at 31 March 2010
                                               29
Model positions - gross exposure by asset class

                                                                           Aviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund (I Class)
                                                                         M odel Positions - Gross Exposure By Asset Class

        900%


        800%


        700%


        600%


        500%
    %




        400%


        300%


        200%


        100%


         0%
               May-06




                                                                     May-07




                                                                                                                             May-08




                                                                                                                                                                                   May-09
                                          Nov-06




                                                            Mar-07




                                                                                                Nov-07




                                                                                                                    Mar-08




                                                                                                                                                        Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                                          Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                              Nov-09
                        Jul-06


                                 Sep-06




                                                   Jan-07




                                                                              Jul-07


                                                                                       Sep-07




                                                                                                         Jan-08




                                                                                                                                      Jul-08


                                                                                                                                               Sep-08




                                                                                                                                                                 Jan-09




                                                                                                                                                                                            Jul-09


                                                                                                                                                                                                     Sep-09
               Gross Equities Exposure                          Gross Bond Exposure                               Gross Currency Exposure                        Gross Portfolio Exposure
               Gross STIR Exposure                              Gross CDS Exposure                                Gross Other




    Source Aviva Investors Strategy Team as at 31 December 2009. NB STIR = short-term interest rates that include EURO$, EUROSCHATZ, and TIPS
    positions. NB CDS = 5 year CDS on Itraxx super senior tranche (22% - 100%). Positions shown as % of NAV.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                       30
Model positions – net exposure by asset class

                                                                                   Aviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund (I Class)
                                                                                  Model Positions - Net Exposure By Asset Class

         400%



         300%



         200%



         100%
     %




           0%
                                     May-06




                                                                                             May-07




                                                                                                                                                      May-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                            May-09
                            Mar-06




                                                                Nov-06




                                                                                    Mar-07




                                                                                                                           Nov-07




                                                                                                                                             Mar-08




                                                                                                                                                                                 Nov-08




                                                                                                                                                                                                   Mar-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       Nov-09
                 Jan-06




                                              Jul-06

                                                       Sep-06




                                                                         Jan-07




                                                                                                         Jul-07

                                                                                                                  Sep-07




                                                                                                                                    Jan-08




                                                                                                                                                               Jul-08

                                                                                                                                                                        Sep-08




                                                                                                                                                                                          Jan-09




                                                                                                                                                                                                                     Jul-09

                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Sep-09
         -100%



         -200%



         -300%
                          Net Equities Exposure                                                       Net Bond Exposure                                                    Net Currency Exposure
                          Net STIR Exposure                                                           Net CDS Exposure                                                     Net Other




          Source Aviva Investors Strategy Team as at 31 December 2009. NB STIR = short-term interest rates that include EURO$, EUROSCHATZ, and TIPS
          positions. NB CDS = 5 year CDS on Itraxx super senior tranche (22% - 100%). Positions shown as % of NAV.
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                31
Example Sept 2008: Credit offered great long-term
value, but not robust on its own

Opportunity: buy senior tranche of European investment grade credit
     Credit spreads high. Looking to profit from market views & distortions
     Massively inflated income for lowest risk CDS tranche due to liquidity crisis
     Historic analysis plus worst case defaults showed huge over-compensation
     Very high confidence to expiry, but material risk under ‘Depression’ scenario

                                                   Itraxx Europe 22-100% Tranche Premium
          100

           80

           60

           40

           20

             0
            Nov -05 M ar-06             Jul-06       Nov -06 M ar-07   Jul-07   Nov -07 M ar-08   Jul-08

Source: Aviva Investors / Itraxx, data as at September 2008

                                                                                                           32
Example Sept 2008: High interest rates offering
   attractive value and hedge

        Opportunity: receive fixed, pay floating European interest rate
        Sticky inflation expectations, reticent ECB and European slowdown denial
        Way of making money out of interest rate expectations versus market views
        Natural and convincing hedge for ‘Depression’ scenario
        High confidence to expiry, but material risk under ‘Recovery’ scenario

                                                                EONIA 15/09/08
          5


          4


          3


          2
                        Swap Curve
          1             Our Forecast
                        12 Month Average Difference
          0


          -1
           Oct 08    Dec 08     Feb 09     Apr 09   Jun 09   Aug 09   Oct 09   Dec 09   Feb 10   Apr 10   Jun 10   Aug 10   Oct 10


Source: Aviva Investors as at September 2008

                                                                                                                                     33
Fund range overview


 Fund Name                            Absolute TAA Fund               Absolute TAA 5 Fund


 Legal structure                      Luxembourg domiciled SICAV      Luxembourg domiciled SICAV
 UCITS compliant                      Yes                             Yes
 Currency                             GBP                             EUR
 Performance target                   Benchmark +15% net of fees      Benchmark +3.75% net of fees
 Benchmark                            1 month GBP LIBOR               1 month Euribor
 Expected average volatility          Under 20% p.a.                  Under 5% p.a.
 Liquidity                            Daily                           Daily
 Minimum investment (Institutional    GBP 500,000                     EUR 500,000
 share class)
 Launch date                          26-Jan-2006                     06-Dec-2007
 Annual management charge             0.85%                           0.55%
 (Institutional share class)
 Performance Fee                      20% of returns over benchmark   10% of returns over benchmark




                                     Different solutions for different objectives
                                     Different solutions for different objectives
                                                                                                      34
Bios
Gary Saidler


        Gary Saidler
        Client Portfolio Manager – Asset Allocation
        Gary joined the investment industry in 2003.
        Main responsibilities
        To communicate Aviva Investors tactical asset allocation and strategic asset allocation expertise to
        clients and prospects.

        Experience and qualifications
        Gary joined Aviva Investors in May 2007.
        Gary graduated from the University of Glasgow with a BSc (Honours) in Statistics. Prior to Aviva
        Investors he worked in the investment consultancy industry. Gary is a CFA charterholder and has
        completed the UKSIP Investment Management Certificate (IMC).




                                                                                                               Page 36
Adrian Jarvis

        Adrian Jarvis
        Director of Strategy
        Adrian joined the investment industry in 1990.
        Main Responsibilities
        Adrian chairs the Asset Allocation Committee, responsible for establishing the asset mix of Aviva
        Investors balanced fund mandates and is ultimately responsible for monitoring performance and
        risk control measures across portfolios.
        Experience and qualifications
        Adrian joined the firm (as Norwich Union Investment Management Ltd (NUIM)) in 2000 as Senior
        Quantitative Analyst with responsibility for developing NUIM’s quantitative research capabilities.
        He has held the position of Head of Strategy, responsible investment strategy, quantitative
        research and quant funds leading the team of economists, strategy and index fund managers and
        derivatives specialists since February 2000.
        Prior to joining NUIM Adrian spent three years at NPI Asset Management, during which time he
        was promoted from Director of Strategy & Quantitative Analysis to Head of Global Asset Allocation.
        Previously he gained extensive investment experience at CIN Management as Assistant Director of
        Global Asset Allocation and Shell International as Senior Quantitative Analyst.
        Adrian holds a BSc and MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics, and studied
        Investment Management at the London Business School.




                                                                                                             37
Steve Cleal

        Steve Cleal
        Asset Allocation Fund Management
        Steve joined the investment industry in 1987.
        Main responsibilities
        As a member of Aviva Investors Asset Allocation Committee, Steve helps formulate the House
        Strategy for investment markets.
        He is also responsible for Managing Aviva Investors range of asset allocation mandates.
        Experience and qualifications
        Steve joined the firm (as Norwich Union Investment Management) in 1987.
        Prior to being appointed Head of Asset Allocation Fund Management in 2009, Steve had a number
        of roles including managing multi-asset funds and generating the firm's view on the UK and North
        American economies.
        He has worked closely with a number of internal and external clients, providing guidance on
        investment and strategic issues.
        Steve holds a BA (Hons) from Keele University and the UKSIP Investment Management
        Certificate.




                                                                                                           38
Hassan Johaadien

       Hassan Johaadien
       Head of TAA Research
       Hassan joined the investment industry in 1995.
       Main responsibilities
       To develop and apply Aviva Investors process for Tactical Asset Allocation to create better
       benchmarks for client funds and identify special opportunities. Also to develop Aviva Investors
       TAA models and use them to propose tactical trades for Asset Allocation Committee for which
       Hassan is a member.
       Experience and qualifications
       Hassan joined Aviva Investors in July 2005.
       Previously he worked for Shell Pensions as Head of Research.
       Hassan holds a BSc in Statistics, Computing and Economics from University College London. He
       also holds the UKSIP Investment Management Certificate.




                                                                                                         39
Introduction to Aviva Investors
We are part of Aviva plc



                                     Long-term                   Asset                           General
                                      savings                  management                       insurance




                                   Asia                 Europe            North America                UK



        World’s fifth-largest insurance group and the largest insurance services provider in the UK*
        50 million customers worldwide**
        54,000 employees**
        Committed to building Aviva brand worldwide


                                                               Strength and stability
                                                               Strength and stability
*Based on gross worldwide premiums for the year ended 31 December 2008. ** As at 30 June 2009               41
Aviva Investors is a global asset manager

          Over £249 billion under management                        % AuM by asset class
          across all asset classes                                                    Real Estate
                                                                                         10%

          Over 1,300 employees at Aviva Investors                                             Other
                                                                                               4%

          Significant growth potential
                                                                                                    Liquidity
                                                     Fixed Income
                                                                                                      10%
                                                         54%
          Enhanced capability available to clients
          across borders




                                                                                           Equity
                                                                                            22%




                                         Breadth and depth of resources
                                         Breadth and depth of resources
Data as at 31 December 2009                                                                                     42
Operating in 16 countries
                               Europe
                               Headcount: 1,008              UK

                                        France               Poland

                                        Luxembourg           Germany

                                        Romania              Spain             Asia-Pacific
                                                                               Headcount: 78
                                        Eire                 Italy                     Australia

                                                                                       China

                                                                                       Singapore

                                                                                       Taiwan

                                                                                       UAE
   North America
   Headcount: 215

           US

           Canada




                                               Global scale, local knowledge
                                               Global scale, local knowledge
                                                                                                   43
Data as at 31 December 2009.
Important information (1)

Except where stated as otherwise, the source of all information is Aviva Investors Global Services Limited (Aviva Investors)
as at     28 February 2010.
Any opinions expressed are based on the internal forecasts of Aviva Investors and they should not be relied upon as
indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Aviva Investors. No part of this document is intended to
constitute advice or recommendations of any nature.
Performance figures sourced from Lipper Hindsight and illustrated on a bid to bid, gross income reinvested basis in the
currency shown. Other information sourced from Aviva Investors. The value of an investment in the fund can go down as
well as up and can fluctuate in response to changes in exchange rates. Past performance is not a guide to the future.
The distribution and offering of shares may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. This document should not be taken
as a recommendation or offer by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such an offer is not authorised or to any person to whom
it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation.
For Germany: Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts of the SICAV are
available free of charge from Aviva Investors Global Services Limited, Zweigniederlassung Deutschland - An der
Hauptwache 7, 60313 Frankfurt am Main, Deutschland or from Aviva Investors, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930
Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.
For Austria: The "Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG", Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna, has been appointed by the
Company as the paying agent within the meaning of § 34 InvFG. Accordingly, the redemption of shares can be made via the
"Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG", Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna. The prospectus, the articles of association, the last
annual report and the semi-annual report, once published, are available at the office of the "Raiffeisen Zentralbank
Österreich AG", Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna or from Aviva Investors Luxembourg, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-
1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708.




                                                                                                                               44
Ataa citywire april 2010

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Ataa citywire april 2010

  • 1. Aviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund Luxembourg, 22nd April 2010 Gary Saidler, Client Portfolio Manager Katrin Ostermeier, Business Development Director
  • 2. This document is for investment professionals only. The content is not approved for use with retail investors or pension scheme members. 2
  • 3. Asset Allocation: Harder than it looks! N. America Asia Pac Property UK Credit Global FI Em Mkts Em Mkts Japan Em Mkts Em Mkts 29% 84% 11% 7% 17% 56% 26% 45% 33% 40% Europe Em Mkts UK Credit Property Property Asia Pac Property Em Mkts Asia Pac Asia Pac 25% 66% 10% 7% 10% 44% 19% 35% 30% 37% World Japan O/S Govt O/S Govt UK Credit World World Europe Europe World 25% 47% 8% 5% 9% 34% 15% 29% 22% 10% UK Credit Europe Cash Cash O/S Govt N. America Europe Asia Pac World Global FI 15% 37% 5% 4% 8% 30% 13% 27% 21% 9% UK Equity World Global FI Global FI Cash Japan UK Equity UK Equity Property N. America 14% 25% 3% 2% 3% 23% 13% 22% 18% 8% Global FI UK Equity Europe Em Mkts Em Mkts Europe N. America Property UK Equity Europe 50% 14% 24% -1% -2% -6% 21% 11% 19% 17% 7% Difference in 2007 Property N. America UK Equity Asia Pac Asia Pac UK Equity Japan World N. America UK Equity 12% 23% -6% -4% -14% 21% 11% 10% 7% 5% O/S Govt Property N. America N. America Japan Global FI Global FI UK Credit Japan Cash 9% 14% -12% -12% -19% 13% 9% 9% 7.35% 5% Cash Cash World UK Equity World Property Asia Pac N. America Global FI O/S Govt 6% 4% -13% -13% -20% 11% 7% -7% 7% 4% Japan UK Credit Japan World N. America UK Credit UK Credit Cash Cash UK Credit -9% 0.1% -20% -17% -22% 0.8% 7% 4% 4% 0.4% Asia Pac O/S Govt Em Mkts Europe UK Equity Cash O/S Govt O/S Govt UK Credit Property -9% -1% -31% -18% -23% 3% 5% 4% 0.8% -5% Em Mkts Global FI Asia Pac Japan Europe O/S Govt Cash Global FI O/S Govt Japan -25% -5% -36% -19% -32% 2% 4% -4% 0.7% -10% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Page 3
  • 4. Overview of tactical asset allocation strategies Dynamic strategy capturing short term opportunities across the asset spectrum Equities/bonds/currencies/other e.g. property UK, US, Europe, Japan and Asia Balanced portfolio of relative value and directional trades Diversified long/short positions in highly liquid and cost effective derivatives e.g. Equity/bond index futures Currency forwards Property swap The graph is for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the types of asset classes that we may take positions in. The list is not exhaustive. Highly liquid strategy utilising a wide opportunity set Highly liquid strategy utilising a wide opportunity set 4
  • 5. Absolute Tactical Asset Allocation track record Ucits III Sicav launched 26 January 2006 AUM – over £700m High risk-adjusted returns** Fund return 10.9% p.a. net since launch Fund historical volatility of 8.1% p.a. since launch Process applied since 1999 Across a variety of mandates targeting different returns Achieved 94% target return since launch* *From 1 January ‘99 to 31 March ‘10. ** Source: Lipper as at 31 March 2010, volatility calculated from monthly returns sourced from Lipper/Hindsight. Performance shown net of fees for I share class. Past performance is not a guide to the future. High risk-adjusted returns High risk-adjusted returns 5
  • 6. Improved risk return profile Risk-return profile with TAA 1 Month Libor Risk-return profile -0.01 without TAA FTA All Stocks Return -0.05 Lehman Global Agg -0.09 FTSE World Europe ex UK -0.30 MSCI World Risk -0.37 FTSE All Share -0.30 Initial portfolio with optimised strategic allocation Improved return expectations for the same level of risk -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0 0.1 0.2 Improved risk profile for an identical level of return A valuable additional source of returns Correlations uses quarterly ‘alpha’ performance data from UK pooled pension fund TAA Overlay (Q1’99-Q2’05) and standalone GTAA mandates (Q3’05-Q1’10). Index returns are in local currency. 6
  • 7. Key decision makers for this fund Adrian Jarvis The Asset Allocation Committee (AAC) uses experience and judgement to identify and weigh Fund Manager opportunities presented by our research Joined industry in 1990 With Aviva Investors since 2000 Able to draw on the talent and insight of the wider strategy team Steve Cleal All roles 100% dedicated to the management of Fund Manager asset allocation funds Joined industry in 1987 With Aviva Investors since 1987 Hassan Johaadien Head of Tactical Asset Allocation Research Joined industry in 1995 With Aviva Investors since 2005 Source: Aviva Investors 31 December 2009 An experienced and stable team An experienced and stable team 7
  • 8. Process supported by large team of specialists Fund Managers Helge Kostka Gary Saidler Steve Cleal* Adrian Jarvis* Head of CPM – Head of Asset Allocation Client Portfolio Investment Head of Strategy Manager – Asset Fund Management Solutions 20 years experience Allocation 22 years experience Strategic Asset Tactical Asset Analytics & Economics Strategy Implementation Allocation Allocation Research Hassan Niral Mirko Cardinale Haydn Davies Jonathan Stewart Robertson Johaadien* Shukla Head of Strategic Abrahams Senior Economist Head of Tactical TAA Modelling & Asset Allocation Head of MAF (UK & Europe) Asset Allocation Currency Strategist Performance Research Implementation Research Analyst David Hillier Sergio Anna Greaves Maulshree Saroliya Supriya Menon Carmen Magness Ferreira Senior Economist Strategic Asset Research Assistant MAF Asset Allocation Macro Strategist (Americas) Allocation Analyst Implementation Analyst Shamik Dhar Bruno Serdoura Ying Jiang Amien Johaadien Nichola Guinn Senior Economist Strategic Asset Asset Allocation MAF Allocation Analyst Analyst Systems Developer Asia Implementation Andrzej Pioch Sukh Sangha Strategic Asset MAF Allocation Analyst Implementation 8 * Member of the Asset Allocation Committee
  • 9. Investment process – key stages Investment Economic Optimal Forecasting Portfolio Portfolio scenario portfolio Implementation Implementation returns selection analysis analysis Combines the best of quantitative and qualitative inputs Combines the best of quantitative and qualitative inputs 9
  • 10. Forecasting returns Example scenarios: Return forecasts Two-Speed World 40% Economic fundamentals Equities Equities Profile for next 2 years for: Equities Liquidity Abounds Equities 15% GDP Inflation Bonds Bonds Interest rates Bonds Bonds Exports Recovery Corporate profits Currencies 20% Currencies etc Currencies Currencies Other Credit assets Policy Error Credit Credit 25% Credit Other Other Source: Aviva Investors 29 March 2010 Output: a set of asset return forecasts for each scenario Output: a set of asset return forecasts for each scenario 10
  • 11. Decision 15 September 2008: Adding value when our uncertainty is at its highest 50% 30% 20% Global hard landing Recovery Depression Idea 1: Expected impact: Expected impact: Expected impact: credit spreads +1.6% +3.4% -0.4% tighten Idea 2: Expected impact: Expected impact: Expected impact: interest rates +1.5% -1.4% +6.3% decrease Positions Expected impact: Expected impact: Expected impact: combined +3% +2% +6% We select portfolios to add value across all scenarios We select portfolios to add value across all scenarios Source: Aviva Investors as at September 2008 11
  • 12. Aviva Investors Asset Allocation – 07 April 2010 Implementation for ATAA Fund Libor +15% p.a. net target Relative risk-adjusted size of active positions Euro Stoxx 50 -45% DAX +10% TOPIX +20% S&P 500 +10% Equity Market Direction ASX 200 -10% 0% Others Equity Relative Value Hang Seng +5% 12% 18% KOSPI +5% Singapore +5% 10Y SONIA Swap -50% UK 10Y Bond +50% AU 10Y Bond -35% CN 10Y Bond -50% GE 10Y Bond +75% Currency IT 10Y Bond -60% 23% US 10Y Bond -80% JP 10Y Bond -40% GBP -5% Bond Market Direction SEK +20% 27% CHF +5% PLN +5% KRW +10% NZD -20% JPY -20% Bond Relative Value 20% EUR -40% CNY +15% AUD +25% CAD +5% UK IPD Swap +10% US 2Y Bond -100% Equities +0% Bonds -190% Currency +0% Other -90% Page 12
  • 13. Independent, centralised risk management team Daily monitoring, analysis and control Value at Risk ensures regulatory limits met daily using proprietary model Value at Risk Stress testing to analyse impact of extreme events Contribution to risk broken out for individual asset and asset classes Daily monitoring and a formal monthly meeting with fund managers Stress Testing Event Date (*) 1 Day 1 Week 1 Month 1 Year Black Monday 19th October 1987 -1.76 -2.78 -3.27 3.30 Asian Crisis 2nd July 1997 -0.43 -2.06 -2.14 -31.34 Global Crash 27th October 1997 -1.09 -1.72 -1.34 -15.90 Contribution to Risk Russian Crisis/LTCM 31st August 1998 0.46 -0.36 1.18 34.31 Dot-Com 14th April 2000 -0.61 -2.31 -2.09 -18.67 Sep 11th 2001 (WTC) 11th September 2001 2.14 -1.86 -4.22 0.69 WorldCom/Enron 17th July 2002 1.14 0.12 2.65 -0.61 Global Credit Crisis (2007/08) 20th June 2007 1.06 0.70 2.84 3.03 Lehman Bros Bankruptcy 15th Sep 2008 0.26 0.97 -2.51 4.15 (*) Estimated event start date not always clearly identifiable. Source: Aviva Investors 3 March 2010 13
  • 14. Tactical asset allocation summary Fund design offers high risk-adjusted returns in any market environment Diversification benefits when mixed with conventional assets Scenario analysis offers capital protection across uncertain investment environment Team of dedicated asset allocation specialists offers depth of experience and breadth of skills 14
  • 16. Example: summary of return optimisation inputs Two-Speed Liquidity World Abounds Recovery Policy Error Weighted Weight: 40% 20% 20% 20% Obs: 2000 1000 1000 1000 UK eq 7.3% 14.5% 19.0% -17.0% 6.2% US eq 8.0% 16.0% 21.0% -19.0% 6.8% EU eq 3.0% 21.0% 21.0% -24.0% 4.8% JP eq 16.0% 24.0% 24.0% -29.0% 10.2% STI 14.5% 25.5% 40.5% -26.5% 13.7% HangSeng 13.4% 22.4% 35.4% -23.6% 12.2% KOSPI 14.0% 23.5% 46.5% -25.0% 14.6% TAIEX 15.3% 38.8% 41.3% -34.7% 15.2% Aust_SPI 9.0% 14.0% 27.5% -22.5% 7.4% IPD Swap 2012 10.3% 18.3% 28.8% -22.0% 9.1% EURJPY 2.5% 5.4% 7.2% -7.2% 2.1% UK 10y bo 3.8% 3.8% -7.9% 3.8% 1.4% US 10y bo 4.7% 4.7% -7.5% 4.7% 2.3% EU 10y bo 2.6% 2.6% -5.1% 2.6% 1.1% JP 10y bo 2.0% 2.0% -2.6% 2.0% 1.1% AU 10y bo 2.3% -1.0% -4.2% 2.3% 0.3% Source: Aviva Investors Strategy team, based on scenario returns The graph is for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the types of asset classes that we may take positions in. The list is not exhaustive. 16
  • 17. Example: optimisation and portfolio selection Two-Speed Liquidity Returns Holdings Initial World Abounds Recovery Policy Error Blended Blended AAC Template Optimal Optimal Optimal Optimal Optimal Optimal Proposal Equities +84% +55% +69% -160% +64% +36% +15% +15% Govt Bonds -120% -60% +5% -302% -103% -283% -245% -190% -70% Other Returns Under Two-Speed World +6.2% +21.9% +17.4% +8.4% -12.9% +16.3% +20.2% +6.3% +0.1% Liquidity Abounds +6.1% +28.2% +38.9% +8.5% -21.1% +24.3% +26.6% +9.1% +3.0% Recovery +16.4% +24.4% +15.5% +53.2% -32.8% +41.0% +27.1% +22.3% +5.9% Policy Error -6.6% -27.8% -25.3% -22.9% +37.1% -20.4% -18.4% -6.2% +0.4% Weighted Average +5.0% +10.9% +9.5% +9.6% -5.6% +13.3% +12.9% +6.8% +1.8% Expected Volatility +12.4% +20.0% +20.0% +20.0% +20.0% +20.0% +20.0% +13.8% +1.4% Information Ratio 0.41 0.49 Source: Aviva Investors Strategy team, based on scenario returns The graph is for illustrative purposes only to demonstrate the types of asset classes that we may take positions in. The list is not exhaustive. 17
  • 18. Our credentials Experience Key decision makers with over 50 years combined experience in TAA Stable team of 20 dedicated asset allocation specialists Process Unique blend of quantitative and qualitative analysis Focus on capital preservation Performance No down years in 11 years Performance particularly strong in times of market stress 18
  • 19. Fund performance since launch Aviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund (GBP) Performance versus benchmark since inception to 31 March 2010 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 26/01/2006 13/03/2006 26/04/2006 09/06/2006 25/07/2006 07/09/2006 23/10/2006 06/12/2006 19/01/2007 06/03/2007 19/04/2007 04/06/2007 18/07/2007 31/08/2007 16/10/2007 29/11/2007 14/01/2008 27/02/2008 11/04/2008 27/05/2008 10/07/2008 25/08/2008 08/10/2008 21/11/2008 06/01/2009 19/02/2009 06/04/2009 20/05/2009 03/07/2009 18/08/2009 01/10/2009 16/11/2009 30/12/2009 12/02/2010 30/03/2010 Aviva Investors Absolute TAA I(MF) LIBOR GBP 1 Month (IN) 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since % % % % % % p.a. % p.a. Launch % Aviva Investors Absolute TAA 1.23 3.60 6.66 3.60 9.29 31.39 - 53.80 I(MF) LIBOR GBP 1 Month (IN) 0.05 0.13 0.26 0.13 0.62 11.51 - 18.09 Source: Aviva Investors/Lipper Hindsight as at 31/03/2010. Data is representative of share class I and is provided net of fees w ith gross income reinvested in GBP Figures do not take into account the costs incurred on the issue and redemption of shares. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. 19
  • 20. Fund performance since launch Aviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund EUR hedged Performance versus benchmark since inception to 31 March 2010 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 28/08/2007 26/11/2007 22/02/2008 22/05/2008 20/08/2008 18/11/2008 16/02/2009 15/05/2009 13/08/2009 11/11/2009 09/02/2010 Aviva Investors Absolute TAA I EUR Hedge (MF) EURIBOR 1 Month (IN) 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since % % % % % p.a. % p.a. % p.a. Launch % Aviva Investors Absolute TAA 1.26 3.69 6.43 3.69 9.22 - - 21.00 I EUR Hedge (MF) EURIBOR 1 Month (IN) 0.04 0.11 0.22 0.11 0.62 - - 7.22 Source: Lipper Hindsight as at 31/03/2010. Data is representative of share class I and is provided net of fees w ith gross income reinvested in EUR. Figures do not take into account the costs incurred on the issue and redemption of shares. Past performance is not a guide to the future. 20
  • 21. Fund performance since launch Aviva Investors Absolute TAA 5 Fund (EUR) Performance versus benchmark since inception to 31 March 2010 110 108 106 104 102 100 98 96 06/12/2007 05/03/2008 03/06/2008 01/09/2008 28/11/2008 26/02/2009 27/05/2009 25/08/2009 23/11/2009 19/02/2010 Aviva Investors Absolute TAA 5 I EUR (MF) EURIBOR 1 Month (IN) 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since % % % % % % p.a. % p.a. Launch % Aviva Investors Absolute 0.30 0.95 1.93 0.95 2.36 - - 8.38 TAA 5 I EUR (MF) EURIBOR 1 Month (IN) 0.04 0.11 0.22 0.11 0.62 - - 5.95 Source: Lipper Hindsight as at 31/03/2010. Data is representative of share class I and is provided net of fees w ith gross income reinvested in EUR. Figures do not take into account the costs incurred on the issue and redemption of shares. Past performance is not a guide to the future. 21
  • 22. Aviva Investors Investment Strategy Team - investment scenarios and positioning – 07th April 2010 Scenarios focus on evolution of the global recovery Two-Speed World Liquidity Abounds Recovery Policy Error 15% 20% 25% 40% The sub-par recovery plods along in Variant of Two-Speed World – Global synchronised recovery gathers Policymakers have taken US/EU/UK. Financial system in Asia / EM policymakers refuse to pace. Past cycles show sharpest extreme measures to prevent a recovery with ongoing deleveraging, allow currencies to appreciate, upturns follow sharpest downturns – financial meltdown / global private credit weak, consumers wary. leading to excess credit creation. this was worst recession in 80 years depression. Asset markets could Risk of further US housing weakness. Bubbles develop in Asia / EM with largest output gap. be adversely affected through a Asia / EM enjoy strong cyclical Real Estate + Equities. Impact of policy stimulus leads to number of channels: recovery, driving global growth Risk of US Treasury bubble upside growth surprise in US. Withdrawal of QE - may forward. Strong mix of loose policy, driven by central bank recycling Employment recovers Q1, supporting cause bond market volatility. commodity strength, improving of savings. housing and consumption. domestic demand with no credit Interest rate hikes / overhang. Structural commodity story is still Global imbalances build – US current premature fiscal tightening - Equity boost from strong profits, esp. intact; combines with excess account deteriorates, EM economies may create fear of double where currencies cheap, but re-rating liquidity to push commodity resume export-led growth model. dip recession. phase over. complex still higher in 2010, Profits beat expectations; equity rally Protectionism - may trigger particularly for those with supply continues, albeit with sporadic sell- Support from QE/Banks/Investor trade war / geopolitical constraints. offs on rate hike fears. demand helps Treasury yields remain instability. range bound. Credit spreads narrow Risk of 2011 recession if oil Growing risk central banks behind the Risk aversion rises - equities, modestly. prices approach 2008 peak. curve on inflation; bonds sell off; $ / credit, bonds suffer; cash & gold US$ remains weak, with counter-trend commodities rally. provide safe havens. rallies. Yen vulnerable once Fed fund hikes in view.
  • 23. Scenarios and Positioning – Current rationales 7 April 2010 Asset allocation stance reflects best positioning for next 6-9 months against all scenarios plus short-term timing opportunities Equity Market Equity Relative Bond Market Bond Relative Currency Other Direction Value Direction Value Moderate gains for Econ. fundamentals Short duration. Next Japanese nominal Highlights: Inflows support UK equities expected in more supportive of move for short rates is bonds are thematic commercial property; AUD, SEK - process H110 under first three Asian markets. up and phase of cycle is short given debt trap Long swap position favours rate hike scenarios driven by bond -ve. Low short and demographics. held. Europe least favoured currencies. profits, not re-ratings. rates & deleveraging given economic strains Italian BTP spread over Short US 2Y Notes; creating sovereign KRW – value, Asian Policy Error scenario and expensive euro. Bunds expected to market likely to start demand. appreciation. would be very negative Japan offers short-term widen should EU pricing in more rate for equities. opportunity given strong Yield risks on upside funding concerns EUR – still expensive, rises. flows and expected Yen from high issuance & resurface. poor econ. outlook, Short-term technicals Macro fund holds: weakness. specific sovereign- sovereign debt crises. show mkt is overbought. Swap spreads overly related credit concerns. -Long gold; inflation / Fund tilt towards pessimistic about risk of JPY – expensive, Neutral position for now. Offsetting demand from deflation hedge . markets that are more UK government default. potential for more QE. QE now ending. -Short Eurostoxx50 robust to Policy Error. Upside risks to AU + CN correlation; position for yields. greater stock selection End of QE + stronger in 2010. data to put upward pressure on US yields. 23
  • 24. Scenarios and positioning - summary of recent changes - 07 April 2010 Date Change (Global Macro) Rationale 10-Feb-10 Reduce size of Eurostoxx short by 30% Market oversold, risk that some relief on Greek deficit issues causes snap back. "Liquidity Abounds" from 20% to 15%, "Policy Error" from 20% to 25% China tightening and EU weakness changes the probability distribution. 15-Feb-10 Buy 12% S&P; sell 12% Eurostoxx Near term risks of a sharp relief rally in Europe have receded. Profits in US to exceed euro profits Sell 100% US 2yr bonds Rate rises in the US likely to exceed profile discounted by short rate curve Buy 15% AUD; sell 15% CAD AUD has fallen recently and has interest rate support and relatively strong economy Buy 6% EUR; sell 5% GBP; sell 1% JPY Reflect GBP's recent rise against the euro Buy 10% SEK; sell 5% NOK; sell 5% GBP Trade following currency model output 22-Feb-10 Sell 10% Eurostoxx, 10% S&P500 and 10% Australia SPI Markets up strongly over past few weeks and are no longer oversold Sell 5% NOK and 5% AUD; Buy 5% CAD and 5% PLN Trade following currency model output 24-Feb-10 Sell 60% BTP bonds; buy 15% German 10y and 15% UK 10y Italian bonds expected to suffer greater funding concerns than Germany and UK Buy 5% SEK and 5% CAD; sell 5% NOK and 5% GBP Trade following currency model output 01-Mar-10 Buy 5% SEK; sell 5% GBP SEK well supported by fundamantals. Concerns over minority government to weigh on GBP 02-Mar-10 Buy 10yr gilts; sell 10yr SONIA Swap spreads overly pessimistic about risk of UK government default 08-Mar-10 Buy 5% CAD and 5% SEK; Sell 5% NOK and 5% NZD Trade following currency model output Buy 5% AUD and 5% USD; Sell 10% JPY JPY is overvalued and could suffer if risk appetite increases 10-Mar-10 Buy 10% DAX & 15% FTSE100; sell 5% Taiwan & 5% TOPIX Temporary fix for Greek sovereign crisis, weak £ benefits UK, equity mix protects against Policy Error Buy 45% Bunds; Sell 15% Gilts & 50% Aus bonds & 50% Can bonds Upside risks to Aus, Can yields; use Bunds to fully offset BTP short now 22-Mar-10 Sell 5% Eurostoxx Lock in some profit following recent equity bounce Buy 10% USD; Sell 10% JPY USD fundamentlaly cheap vs JPY and supported by stronger economic momentum Buy 5% CHF; Sell 5% EUR Trade following currency model output 29-Mar-10 Buy 5% USD; Sell 5% JPY Trade following currency model output Buy 50% JP 10y, buy 15% Aus 10y and Eur 10y; Sell 80% US 10y End of QE to put upward pressure on US yields. Take profit on Jap and Aus short bond positions 06-Apr-10 Sell 10% FTSE100 Neutralise equity long after strong rally. UK market overbought Buy 10% TOPIX, Sell 10% Eurostoxx Japanese equities to receive support from weakening Yen. Market also relatively cheap 07-Apr-10 Buy 5% GBP; Sell 5% JPY Sterling very cheap and election likely to bring some fiscal realism Buy 5% CAD; Sell 5% EUR Canadian economy strengthening, rates likely to rise more quickly than in Europe Buy 5% SEK; Sell 5% NOK Trade following currency model output The % changes shown are on the template for funds targeting 15% p.a net outperformance (ATAA, GMAA and Global Macro). For our funds with other levels of target outperformance positions are scaled accordingly, e.g. ATAA5 changes are ¼ of these. Page 24
  • 25. Aviva Investors Asset Allocation – 29 March 2010 Implementation for Absolute TAA 5 Fund Libor +3.75% p.a. net target Relative risk-adjusted size of active positions FTSE 100 +3% Euro Stoxx 50 -9% DAX +3% Equity Market Direction TOPIX +3% Others 5% S&P 500 +3% 13% Equity Relative Value ASX 200 -3% 13% Hang Seng +1% KOSPI +1% Singapore +1% 10Y SONIA Swap -13% UK 10Y Bond +13% AU 10Y Bond -9% CN 10Y Bond -13% Currency GE 10Y Bond +19% 21% IT 10Y Bond -15% US 10Y Bond -20% JP 10Y Bond -10% GBP -3% SEK +4% CHF +1% Bond Market Direction NOK +1% 27% PLN +1% KRW +3% NZD -5% JPY -4% Bond Relative Value EUR -9% 21% CNY +4% AUD +6% UK IPD Swap +3% US 2Y Bond -25% Equities +3% Bonds -48% Currency +0% Other -23% 25
  • 26. Long-term track record Founding client, target return contribution 1% p.a., 01/01/99 to 31/03/10 Long Term GTAA Quarterly performance Actual return 0.94% p.a., volatility 1.09% p.a., risk adjusted return 0.86* Long Term GTAA1.1%, information ratio of 0.85 Performance +0.94%, volatility Quarterly Performance +2.50 +2.00 +1.50 +1.00 Alpha % +0.50 -0.50 -1.00 -1.50 -2.00 Q1 1999 Q1 2000 Q1 2001 Q1 2002 Q1 2003 Q1 2004 Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Actual quarterly GTAA strategy return Target per quarter Past performance is not a guide to future performance *Source: Aviva Investors. Alpha composite performance gross of fees. Composite relates to the AIPL Balanced Managed Overlay (Q4’98-Q1’05) and a standalone GTAA mandate (Q2’05-Q4’07), ATAA Fund Q108 to Q110. Scaled to 1% p.a. volatility and alpha target. GBP. Consistent returns over the long-term Consistent returns over the long-term 26
  • 27. ATAA monthly gross of fees attribution by decision Monthly Contribution to +20% Fund GOF Alpha by Decision 10.00% Return Target: UK 1M LIBOR GBP + 20% p.a Gross of Fees 8.00% 6.00% 4.00% Alpha Contribution 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% 06 6 6 6 07 7 7 7 08 8 8 8 09 9 9 9 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 r-0 -0 -0 r-0 -0 -0 r-0 -0 -0 r-0 -0 -0 b- n- g- b- n- g- b- n- g- b- n- g- ec ec ec ec ct ct ct ct Ap Ap Ap Ap Fe Ju Fe Ju Fe Ju Fe Ju Au Au Au Au O O O O D D D D Equity Beta Equity Market S.T.I.R. (<5 Yrs) L.T.I.R. Beta L.T.I.R. Market Currency Other Source Aviva Investors Strategy Team as at end of December 2009. Short term interest rates (STIR), Long term interest rates (LTIR). 'Other' relates to the volatility trade (Vix future), CDS and UK commercial property swap. Attribution shown in GBP. 27
  • 28. Risk management is integral to our process Fund managers manage market risk by: Scenario Testing Ensuring portfolios perform well across scenarios Ensuring portfolio maintains good balance across six main asset risk categories Sizing trades according to projected risk and level of conviction Portfolio Managing overall leverage and risk level Diversification AAC varies risk as shown below Total portfolio Normal volatility Current Low High confidence in confidence in mis-pricing mis-pricing Minimum Maximum 0% volatility + 30% volatility 28
  • 29. Historic Value at Risk (VaR) within the Fund Source: Aviva Investors as at 31 March 2010 29
  • 30. Model positions - gross exposure by asset class Aviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund (I Class) M odel Positions - Gross Exposure By Asset Class 900% 800% 700% 600% 500% % 400% 300% 200% 100% 0% May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 Nov-06 Mar-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Nov-09 Jul-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 Gross Equities Exposure Gross Bond Exposure Gross Currency Exposure Gross Portfolio Exposure Gross STIR Exposure Gross CDS Exposure Gross Other Source Aviva Investors Strategy Team as at 31 December 2009. NB STIR = short-term interest rates that include EURO$, EUROSCHATZ, and TIPS positions. NB CDS = 5 year CDS on Itraxx super senior tranche (22% - 100%). Positions shown as % of NAV. 30
  • 31. Model positions – net exposure by asset class Aviva Investors Absolute TAA Fund (I Class) Model Positions - Net Exposure By Asset Class 400% 300% 200% 100% % 0% May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 Mar-06 Nov-06 Mar-07 Nov-07 Mar-08 Nov-08 Mar-09 Nov-09 Jan-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Sep-09 -100% -200% -300% Net Equities Exposure Net Bond Exposure Net Currency Exposure Net STIR Exposure Net CDS Exposure Net Other Source Aviva Investors Strategy Team as at 31 December 2009. NB STIR = short-term interest rates that include EURO$, EUROSCHATZ, and TIPS positions. NB CDS = 5 year CDS on Itraxx super senior tranche (22% - 100%). Positions shown as % of NAV. 31
  • 32. Example Sept 2008: Credit offered great long-term value, but not robust on its own Opportunity: buy senior tranche of European investment grade credit Credit spreads high. Looking to profit from market views & distortions Massively inflated income for lowest risk CDS tranche due to liquidity crisis Historic analysis plus worst case defaults showed huge over-compensation Very high confidence to expiry, but material risk under ‘Depression’ scenario Itraxx Europe 22-100% Tranche Premium 100 80 60 40 20 0 Nov -05 M ar-06 Jul-06 Nov -06 M ar-07 Jul-07 Nov -07 M ar-08 Jul-08 Source: Aviva Investors / Itraxx, data as at September 2008 32
  • 33. Example Sept 2008: High interest rates offering attractive value and hedge Opportunity: receive fixed, pay floating European interest rate Sticky inflation expectations, reticent ECB and European slowdown denial Way of making money out of interest rate expectations versus market views Natural and convincing hedge for ‘Depression’ scenario High confidence to expiry, but material risk under ‘Recovery’ scenario EONIA 15/09/08 5 4 3 2 Swap Curve 1 Our Forecast 12 Month Average Difference 0 -1 Oct 08 Dec 08 Feb 09 Apr 09 Jun 09 Aug 09 Oct 09 Dec 09 Feb 10 Apr 10 Jun 10 Aug 10 Oct 10 Source: Aviva Investors as at September 2008 33
  • 34. Fund range overview Fund Name Absolute TAA Fund Absolute TAA 5 Fund Legal structure Luxembourg domiciled SICAV Luxembourg domiciled SICAV UCITS compliant Yes Yes Currency GBP EUR Performance target Benchmark +15% net of fees Benchmark +3.75% net of fees Benchmark 1 month GBP LIBOR 1 month Euribor Expected average volatility Under 20% p.a. Under 5% p.a. Liquidity Daily Daily Minimum investment (Institutional GBP 500,000 EUR 500,000 share class) Launch date 26-Jan-2006 06-Dec-2007 Annual management charge 0.85% 0.55% (Institutional share class) Performance Fee 20% of returns over benchmark 10% of returns over benchmark Different solutions for different objectives Different solutions for different objectives 34
  • 35. Bios
  • 36. Gary Saidler Gary Saidler Client Portfolio Manager – Asset Allocation Gary joined the investment industry in 2003. Main responsibilities To communicate Aviva Investors tactical asset allocation and strategic asset allocation expertise to clients and prospects. Experience and qualifications Gary joined Aviva Investors in May 2007. Gary graduated from the University of Glasgow with a BSc (Honours) in Statistics. Prior to Aviva Investors he worked in the investment consultancy industry. Gary is a CFA charterholder and has completed the UKSIP Investment Management Certificate (IMC). Page 36
  • 37. Adrian Jarvis Adrian Jarvis Director of Strategy Adrian joined the investment industry in 1990. Main Responsibilities Adrian chairs the Asset Allocation Committee, responsible for establishing the asset mix of Aviva Investors balanced fund mandates and is ultimately responsible for monitoring performance and risk control measures across portfolios. Experience and qualifications Adrian joined the firm (as Norwich Union Investment Management Ltd (NUIM)) in 2000 as Senior Quantitative Analyst with responsibility for developing NUIM’s quantitative research capabilities. He has held the position of Head of Strategy, responsible investment strategy, quantitative research and quant funds leading the team of economists, strategy and index fund managers and derivatives specialists since February 2000. Prior to joining NUIM Adrian spent three years at NPI Asset Management, during which time he was promoted from Director of Strategy & Quantitative Analysis to Head of Global Asset Allocation. Previously he gained extensive investment experience at CIN Management as Assistant Director of Global Asset Allocation and Shell International as Senior Quantitative Analyst. Adrian holds a BSc and MSc in Economics from the London School of Economics, and studied Investment Management at the London Business School. 37
  • 38. Steve Cleal Steve Cleal Asset Allocation Fund Management Steve joined the investment industry in 1987. Main responsibilities As a member of Aviva Investors Asset Allocation Committee, Steve helps formulate the House Strategy for investment markets. He is also responsible for Managing Aviva Investors range of asset allocation mandates. Experience and qualifications Steve joined the firm (as Norwich Union Investment Management) in 1987. Prior to being appointed Head of Asset Allocation Fund Management in 2009, Steve had a number of roles including managing multi-asset funds and generating the firm's view on the UK and North American economies. He has worked closely with a number of internal and external clients, providing guidance on investment and strategic issues. Steve holds a BA (Hons) from Keele University and the UKSIP Investment Management Certificate. 38
  • 39. Hassan Johaadien Hassan Johaadien Head of TAA Research Hassan joined the investment industry in 1995. Main responsibilities To develop and apply Aviva Investors process for Tactical Asset Allocation to create better benchmarks for client funds and identify special opportunities. Also to develop Aviva Investors TAA models and use them to propose tactical trades for Asset Allocation Committee for which Hassan is a member. Experience and qualifications Hassan joined Aviva Investors in July 2005. Previously he worked for Shell Pensions as Head of Research. Hassan holds a BSc in Statistics, Computing and Economics from University College London. He also holds the UKSIP Investment Management Certificate. 39
  • 41. We are part of Aviva plc Long-term Asset General savings management insurance Asia Europe North America UK World’s fifth-largest insurance group and the largest insurance services provider in the UK* 50 million customers worldwide** 54,000 employees** Committed to building Aviva brand worldwide Strength and stability Strength and stability *Based on gross worldwide premiums for the year ended 31 December 2008. ** As at 30 June 2009 41
  • 42. Aviva Investors is a global asset manager Over £249 billion under management % AuM by asset class across all asset classes Real Estate 10% Over 1,300 employees at Aviva Investors Other 4% Significant growth potential Liquidity Fixed Income 10% 54% Enhanced capability available to clients across borders Equity 22% Breadth and depth of resources Breadth and depth of resources Data as at 31 December 2009 42
  • 43. Operating in 16 countries Europe Headcount: 1,008 UK France Poland Luxembourg Germany Romania Spain Asia-Pacific Headcount: 78 Eire Italy Australia China Singapore Taiwan UAE North America Headcount: 215 US Canada Global scale, local knowledge Global scale, local knowledge 43 Data as at 31 December 2009.
  • 44. Important information (1) Except where stated as otherwise, the source of all information is Aviva Investors Global Services Limited (Aviva Investors) as at 28 February 2010. Any opinions expressed are based on the internal forecasts of Aviva Investors and they should not be relied upon as indicating any guarantee of return from an investment managed by Aviva Investors. No part of this document is intended to constitute advice or recommendations of any nature. Performance figures sourced from Lipper Hindsight and illustrated on a bid to bid, gross income reinvested basis in the currency shown. Other information sourced from Aviva Investors. The value of an investment in the fund can go down as well as up and can fluctuate in response to changes in exchange rates. Past performance is not a guide to the future. The distribution and offering of shares may be restricted by law in certain jurisdictions. This document should not be taken as a recommendation or offer by anyone in any jurisdiction in which such an offer is not authorised or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such an offer or solicitation. For Germany: Copies of the Full and Simplified Prospectus together with the Report and Accounts of the SICAV are available free of charge from Aviva Investors Global Services Limited, Zweigniederlassung Deutschland - An der Hauptwache 7, 60313 Frankfurt am Main, Deutschland or from Aviva Investors, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L-1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708. For Austria: The "Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG", Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna, has been appointed by the Company as the paying agent within the meaning of § 34 InvFG. Accordingly, the redemption of shares can be made via the "Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG", Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna. The prospectus, the articles of association, the last annual report and the semi-annual report, once published, are available at the office of the "Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG", Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Vienna or from Aviva Investors Luxembourg, 34 avenue de la Liberté, 4th floor, L- 1930 Luxembourg. R.C.S. Luxembourg B25708. 44