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Facing the future: Sense-making in Horizon Scanning
1. The 4th International Seville Conference on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA) 12 & 13 May 2011 Facing the Future: Scanning, Synthesizing and Sense-Making in Horizon Scanning Totti Könnölä 1 , Ahti Salo 2 , Cristiano Cagnin 3 , Vicente Carabias 3 , and Eeva Vilkkumaa 2 1 Impetu Solutions, Madrid (Spain) 2 Aalto University School of Science and Technology, Espoo (Finland) 3 JRC-IPTS, Seville (Spain)
10. Facing the Future Case: Facing the Future (Boden et al., 2010) Synthesizing Issues Experts and policy-makers grouped in a workshop the identified issues into cross-cutting challenges and examined their policy implications for the EU. Table 2 Example of a cross-cutting challenge consisting of issues from all three analyses and from different thematic areas (Demography, Environment, and Defence & Security); font styles of issue codes refer to the results obtained in the different RPM analyses ( http:// foresight.jrc.ec.europa.eu/survey_issues.pdf , visited 01/04/2011) . Pervasive sensors for real-time surveillance widely diffused DS81 6 A major war by 2020 DS15 6 Attacks on infrastructure facilities DS13 6 Global decline in biodiversity and loss of ecosystems services ENV70 3 Global decline of freshwater availability leading to an increase in water scarcity ENV68 3 Global under-pricing and overconsumption of water ENV03 3 Massive migration due to climate change DI04 1 Key words from the issue description (optional) Issue code Area No. Save natural resources (water, food) to prevent conflicts over their scarcity and other impacts such as migration
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18. Facing the Future Conclusions We have illustrated that horizon scanning activities need not be limited to the collection of future-oriented observations ; rather, the scope of these activities can be extended to include creative and collective sense-making processes for synthesizing observations into cross-cutting challenges and also for exploring the policy implications of these challenges in collaborative workshops . It appears the methodological approach in this exercise – which had well-defined phases for the systematic ‘bottom-up’ scanning of issues and for the prioritization and clustering thereof – is viable even in other contexts where there is a need to build shared understandings about the prospects of cross-cutting coordination in support of systemic policy objectives .
19. Facing the Future Thank you for your attention! Facing the future: time for the EU to meet global challenges http://foresight.jrc.ec.europa.eu/bepa.html Totti Könnölä : [email_address] Vicente Carabias : [email_address]
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