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Accompanying the agrarian
    transition in Laos




Opportunities and challenges for conservation
   agriculture in maize production areas
             G. Lestrelin & J-C. Castella
Research Questions
• CA deemed knowledge- and capital-intensive, hence
  poorly compatible with smallholder farming (e.g.
  Erenstein 2003; Bolliger et al. 2006; Giller et al. 2009)
• Dissemination should concentrate on “socio-ecological
  niches” (Giller et al. 2009: 31) where CA is the most
  likely to be adopted by smallholders
• Two questions:
   To what extent can CA compete with more conventional
    forms of agricultural intensification in a context of
    smallholder farming?
   What is the value of a “socio-ecological niche” approach to
    the dissemination of CA?
Research Sites
Sayaboury             Xieng Khouang




                               Two CA research and
                               development initiatives
                               active between 2003
                               and 2008:
Research Sites
• From 2003 to 2008:
   • Network of experimentation and demonstration plots
   • Establishment of CA farmer groups (44 villages in Sayaboury and 17
     villages in Xieng Khouang)
   • Technical support to farmers and extension agencies

• Various direct seeding mulch-based cropping (DMC)
  systems disseminated, including:
  Maize mono with             Associations                 Rotations
residues management        food - fodder crops        grass - legume crops
Methods & Data
•   Exhaustive village censuses: on household
    composition, land, labor, capital, farm equipment, etc.
•   Questionnaire surveys:
    Sayaboury: Annual surveys (2005-2008) among 2084
    households in 21 villages; data on household
    livelihoods and adoption of CA
    Xieng Khouang: Rapid and detailed surveys (2009)
    among 600 households in 20 villages; data on
    household livelihoods, farm economics and adoption
    of CA; re-study of farming systems 2003
•   Qualitative interviews and focus groups: Village
    histories, perceptions of the advantages and limits of
    CA, constraints for adoption and dissemination, etc.
•   Land cover and land use change analysis (LANDSAT)
•   Scenario analysis: Technical and economic simulations
    with Olympe software
Results
• Contrasted situations
   – CA dissemination efforts
   – Topography and ecology
         Geomorphology of southern Sayaboury province




                                         Steep slopes
                                         Productive
                           Mod. slopes   Schists
                           Productive
                           Schists



           Steep slopes
           Erosion-prone
           Sandstone
Results
      • Similar transitions and driving forces
                              – Strong market demand for maize
                                 (w/ Thailand and Vietnam)
                          1,200,000



                          1,000,000
Maize production (tons)




                           800,000
                                                                                       Maize
                           600,000
                                                                                       boom
                           400,000



                           200,000



                                 0
                                      1995   1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002   2003   2004   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009


                                                    Sayaboury             Xieng Khouang                Lao PDR
Results
• Similar transitions and driving forces
   – Rapid agricultural expansion and
     intensification
      Land cover change in Xieng Khouang province (2002-2010)




            2002                      2006                      2010

                                             Forest land

                                             Upland crops (maize)

                                             Paddy rice
Results
• Similar transitions and driving forces
   – Smallholder agriculture is still the norm


          Average rainfed land tenure
                per household

   Sayaboury (2008)       3 ha (1.1 – 5.3 ha)



   Xieng Khouang (2009)   2.2 ha (0.8 – 5.2 ha)
Four Agro-Ecological Zones
Representative of successive stages in a historical pattern
of land use intensification
Transition Stages & CA adoption
                               Sayaboury Province (21 villages, n=2084)          Xieng Khouang Province (9 villages, n=270)
    Agroecological
    transition (stages)        Adoption*           Extent of CA♣    Abandon♠      Adoption*     Extent of CA♣    Abandon♠
                                 (2008)                (2008)      (2004-2008)      (2008)          (2008)      (2006-2008)

    Productive lands
1   Subsistence
    Extensive systems
                                      -
                                High adoption levels
                                                         -               -           4%             76%            8%


    Productive lands
2   Commoditization
    Intensification
                                  40%                  50%              30%         27%             61%            11%


    Degrading lands
3   Commercial agriculture
    Intensive monocropping
                                  13%                  31%              54%         13%             32%            55%


    Degraded lands                                                                               Low adoption levels
4   Diversification
    Intensive mixed systems
                                  41%                  65%
                                                               ≠        30%           -               -              -


    Total                         24%                  53%              36%         12%             53%            21%

    * Percent of farming households
    ♣ Percent of total farmland among CA farmers
    ♠ Average abandon rate between year n and year n+1 of CA practice
Transition Stages & CA adoption
Conclusions
• Two critical windows of opportunity for CA-related interventions in
  the maize production areas of Laos
   – Early stage of commoditization and intensification of agriculture:
      “Attractive option for smallholders willing to engage in commercial agriculture
      with a limited increase in production costs”
   – Latest stage of land degradation and economic diversification:
      “Economically- and ecologically-sound alternative to conventional intensive
      monoculture”

• No particular “socio-ecological niches” or “hotspots” for
  dissemination BUT key moments for intervention along specific
  agro-ecological transition pathways

• Appropriate timing + adequate research and extension endeavours
   CA can become a viable and accepted alternative – even in a
  context of small-scale farming
Thank you!
                          For further information: g.lestrelin@gmail.com


                                                  References
Slaats J, Lestrelin G (2009), Improving cropping systems by introducing Conservation Agriculture: Taking stock of
     the results and methodology of research-development in southern Sayaboury province, Lao
     PDR, PCADR, Vientiane, 115 p.
Lestrelin G, Nanthavong K, Jobard E, Keophoxay A Khambanseuang C Castella J-C, Lienhard P (2011), “To till or
     not to till?” Opportunities and constraints to the diffusion of Conservation Agriculture in Xieng Khouang
     Province, Lao PDR, Outlook on Agriculture (in press).
Lestrelin G, Tran Quoc H, Jullien F, Rattanatray B, Khamxaykhay C, Tivet F (2011), Conservation agriculture in Lao
     PDR: Diffusion and determinants for adoption of DMC systems in smallholder agriculture, Renewable
     Agriculture and Food Systems (under review).

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Accompanying the agrarian transition in Laos. Guillaume Lestrelin

  • 1. Accompanying the agrarian transition in Laos Opportunities and challenges for conservation agriculture in maize production areas G. Lestrelin & J-C. Castella
  • 2. Research Questions • CA deemed knowledge- and capital-intensive, hence poorly compatible with smallholder farming (e.g. Erenstein 2003; Bolliger et al. 2006; Giller et al. 2009) • Dissemination should concentrate on “socio-ecological niches” (Giller et al. 2009: 31) where CA is the most likely to be adopted by smallholders • Two questions: To what extent can CA compete with more conventional forms of agricultural intensification in a context of smallholder farming? What is the value of a “socio-ecological niche” approach to the dissemination of CA?
  • 3. Research Sites Sayaboury Xieng Khouang Two CA research and development initiatives active between 2003 and 2008:
  • 4. Research Sites • From 2003 to 2008: • Network of experimentation and demonstration plots • Establishment of CA farmer groups (44 villages in Sayaboury and 17 villages in Xieng Khouang) • Technical support to farmers and extension agencies • Various direct seeding mulch-based cropping (DMC) systems disseminated, including: Maize mono with Associations Rotations residues management food - fodder crops grass - legume crops
  • 5. Methods & Data • Exhaustive village censuses: on household composition, land, labor, capital, farm equipment, etc. • Questionnaire surveys: Sayaboury: Annual surveys (2005-2008) among 2084 households in 21 villages; data on household livelihoods and adoption of CA Xieng Khouang: Rapid and detailed surveys (2009) among 600 households in 20 villages; data on household livelihoods, farm economics and adoption of CA; re-study of farming systems 2003 • Qualitative interviews and focus groups: Village histories, perceptions of the advantages and limits of CA, constraints for adoption and dissemination, etc. • Land cover and land use change analysis (LANDSAT) • Scenario analysis: Technical and economic simulations with Olympe software
  • 6. Results • Contrasted situations – CA dissemination efforts – Topography and ecology Geomorphology of southern Sayaboury province Steep slopes Productive Mod. slopes Schists Productive Schists Steep slopes Erosion-prone Sandstone
  • 7. Results • Similar transitions and driving forces – Strong market demand for maize (w/ Thailand and Vietnam) 1,200,000 1,000,000 Maize production (tons) 800,000 Maize 600,000 boom 400,000 200,000 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Sayaboury Xieng Khouang Lao PDR
  • 8. Results • Similar transitions and driving forces – Rapid agricultural expansion and intensification Land cover change in Xieng Khouang province (2002-2010) 2002 2006 2010 Forest land Upland crops (maize) Paddy rice
  • 9. Results • Similar transitions and driving forces – Smallholder agriculture is still the norm Average rainfed land tenure per household Sayaboury (2008) 3 ha (1.1 – 5.3 ha) Xieng Khouang (2009) 2.2 ha (0.8 – 5.2 ha)
  • 10. Four Agro-Ecological Zones Representative of successive stages in a historical pattern of land use intensification
  • 11. Transition Stages & CA adoption Sayaboury Province (21 villages, n=2084) Xieng Khouang Province (9 villages, n=270) Agroecological transition (stages) Adoption* Extent of CA♣ Abandon♠ Adoption* Extent of CA♣ Abandon♠ (2008) (2008) (2004-2008) (2008) (2008) (2006-2008) Productive lands 1 Subsistence Extensive systems - High adoption levels - - 4% 76% 8% Productive lands 2 Commoditization Intensification 40% 50% 30% 27% 61% 11% Degrading lands 3 Commercial agriculture Intensive monocropping 13% 31% 54% 13% 32% 55% Degraded lands Low adoption levels 4 Diversification Intensive mixed systems 41% 65% ≠ 30% - - - Total 24% 53% 36% 12% 53% 21% * Percent of farming households ♣ Percent of total farmland among CA farmers ♠ Average abandon rate between year n and year n+1 of CA practice
  • 12. Transition Stages & CA adoption
  • 13. Conclusions • Two critical windows of opportunity for CA-related interventions in the maize production areas of Laos – Early stage of commoditization and intensification of agriculture: “Attractive option for smallholders willing to engage in commercial agriculture with a limited increase in production costs” – Latest stage of land degradation and economic diversification: “Economically- and ecologically-sound alternative to conventional intensive monoculture” • No particular “socio-ecological niches” or “hotspots” for dissemination BUT key moments for intervention along specific agro-ecological transition pathways • Appropriate timing + adequate research and extension endeavours  CA can become a viable and accepted alternative – even in a context of small-scale farming
  • 14. Thank you! For further information: g.lestrelin@gmail.com References Slaats J, Lestrelin G (2009), Improving cropping systems by introducing Conservation Agriculture: Taking stock of the results and methodology of research-development in southern Sayaboury province, Lao PDR, PCADR, Vientiane, 115 p. Lestrelin G, Nanthavong K, Jobard E, Keophoxay A Khambanseuang C Castella J-C, Lienhard P (2011), “To till or not to till?” Opportunities and constraints to the diffusion of Conservation Agriculture in Xieng Khouang Province, Lao PDR, Outlook on Agriculture (in press). Lestrelin G, Tran Quoc H, Jullien F, Rattanatray B, Khamxaykhay C, Tivet F (2011), Conservation agriculture in Lao PDR: Diffusion and determinants for adoption of DMC systems in smallholder agriculture, Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems (under review).