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Willms Future Trends In Tourism Global Perspectives Club Of Amsterdam Confernce 2007 05 31
1.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives ‚the future of TOURISM‘, a Club of Amsterdam conference 31.05.2007, Amsterdam. Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 1
2.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives [A] Tourism – already a global competition The current state: facts & figures Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 2
3.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 3
4.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Data provided by: World Economic Forum; copyright © Maplecroft.NET Limited 2007 Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 4
5.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 5
6.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 6
7.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 7
8.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 8
9.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Source: Feldhoff, GR Mai 2007 The World‘s Top-30-Airports (in terms of passenger traffic) and Share of World Regions Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 9
10.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives The future state: forecasts & figures Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 10
11.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives [T1] Tourism Future - New Geographies 2005 – 2025: Two Asian Decades Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 11
12.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Source: WTTC 2007 Asia‘s Future Tourism Tigers Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 12
13.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Source: WTTC 2007 Asia‘s Future Tourism Tiger Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 13
14.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Source: WTTC 2007 Asia‘s Future Tourism Tigers Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 14
15.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 15
16.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives LCC in Asia‘s Tourism Market [2006] Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 16
17.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives UNWTO‘s Tourism 2020 Vision [International Tourist Arrivals Forecast] Source: UNWTO: http://www.unwto.org/facts/eng/vision.htm Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 17
18.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives UNWTO‘s Tourism 2020 Vision [Forecast] Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 18
19.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Passenger Traffic Growth Forecasts 2006 – 2025 in World Regions PaxKm 2005 in bn. Growth Forecast 2006 – 2025 Average Annual Growth Rate in % Quelle: Feldhoff, GR Mai 2007 Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 19
20.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives [T2] Tourism Future – „Ageing Europe“ Europe‘s New Burden - Retirement Poverty Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 20
21.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Tourism Future & Ageing Europe Life exspectancy at birth, 2001 Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 21
22.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Tourism Future & Ageing Europe Population Ageing in the EU, France and Italy, 2000-2050 Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 22
23.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Facts: Tourism Future & Ageing Europe • According to the United Nations, population ageing is • Population Ageing increasingly becoming one of the most salient social, economic and demographic phenomena of • Depopulation our times. • By 2030 the EU can expect and 14 percent fewer workers and 7 percent fewer consumers as 2005 • Shrinking Cities • By 2050, the number of people over 60 in Europe will reach 40% [in EUROPE] of the total population or 60% of the working age population. Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 23
24.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Share of persons 60 years and over Tourism Future & [as a % of the total population; Source: Eurostat] Ageing Europe Germany: 2000: 22,9% - 2020: 30% - 2050: 41% Population Ageing in the EU: • Germany Belgium: • Belgium 2000: 22.1% - 2020: 30% - 2050: 38% • Denmark • Spain Denmark: • France 2000: 19.9% - 2020: 28% - 2050: 36% Spain: Years 2000 / 2020 / 2050 2000: 21.8% - 2020: 28% - 2050: 44% France: 2000: 20.7% - 2020: 29% - 2050: 38% Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 24
25.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Consequences: Tourism Future & Ageing Europe • Shrinking Income • Shrinking Consumption • Population Ageing • Skrinking Wealth • Depopulation • Old Age Poverty & • Social Exclusion and • Growing Health Risks & • Long Term Health Problems • Shrinking Cities • Large Scale Immobilities & [in EUROPE] • Neglected Space [Destinations] Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 25
26.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Results from the SHARE-Project Consequences: Tourism Future & [http://www.share-project.org] Ageing Europe ...clearly indicate that men • Shrinking Income and women with a lower socio- • Shrinking Consumption • Population Ageing economic status have already a • Skrinking Wealth worse physical health than those with a higher socio- • Depopulation • Old Age Poverty & economic position • Social Exclusion Among both men and women, a and low educational level or income • Growing Health Risks & is associated with a higher risk • Long Term Health Problems • Shrinking Cities of reporting less than good self- perceived health, long-term • Large Scale Immobilities & problems, as well as activity [in EUROPE] • Neglected Space [Destination] limitations due to health problems. Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 26
27.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Consequences: Tourism Future & Ageing Europe • Shrinking Income • Shrinking Consumption • Population Ageing • Skrinking Wealth Discussed Solution: • Depopulation New Migrant Workers: • Old Age Poverty & • Social Exclusion 80–700 million migrants by 2050! and • Growing Health Risks & • Long Term Health Problems • Shrinking Cities A sustainable increase of VFR-Tourism Immobilities & • Large Scale shall follow! [in EUROPE] • Neglected Space [Destination] Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 27
28.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives [T3] Tourism Future – „VFR-Tourism“ „CU soon, my friend/brother“ - Global VFR-Tourism Streams Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 28
29.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives The Sustainable VFR-Tourism Trend in World Tourism Data provided by: World Economic Forum; copyright © Maplecroft.NET Limited 2007 Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 29
30.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives [T4] Tourism Future & Climate Change „The Mediterranization of Western- and Central-Europe“ - Climate Change Advantages [?] Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 30
31.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives IPCC-Data: Variations of the Earth‘s surface temperature for: Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 31
32.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives IPCC-Data: Variations of the Earth‘s surface temperature for... Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 32
33.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Data provided by: World Economic Forum; copyright © Maplecroft.NET Limited 2007 Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 33
34.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives IPCC-Data: Regional Warming [inter-modell consistancy] Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 34
35.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives North Amerika Europe Amerika Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006 Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 35
36.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives North Amerika Europe Amerika Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006 Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 36
37.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives North Amerika Europe Amerika Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006 Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 37
38.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Caribbean North America North-East-Asia Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006 Amerika Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 38
39.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Caribbean North America North-East-Asia Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006 Amerika Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 39
40.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives Caribbean North America North-East-Asia Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006 Elderly (esp. European) may avoid travel to „very hot summer destinations“; i. g. Amerika • the Mediterranean Basin • East Coast USA • South-West USA • Australian Cities Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 40
41.
The Future Trends
in Tourism - Global Perspectives NW- and Central- Europe‘s Domestic and Incoming Tourism Streams may benefit from CC in the summer saison! • Warmer Coastal Waters [Increase in Sun & Beach Tourism] • New Marine Attractions [Dolphins, Fish Species, Algae and Corals, Birds] • Warmer Land Surfaces & • Mediterranization of Lifstyles Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 41