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Willms Future Trends In Tourism Global Perspectives Club Of Amsterdam Confernce 2007 05 31
- 1. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
The Future Trends
in Tourism -
Global Perspectives
‚the future of TOURISM‘,
a Club of Amsterdam conference
31.05.2007, Amsterdam.
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 1
- 2. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
[A] Tourism – already a global competition
The current state:
facts & figures
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 2
- 3. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 3
- 4. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Data provided by: World Economic Forum; copyright © Maplecroft.NET Limited 2007
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 4
- 5. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 5
- 6. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 6
- 7. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 7
- 8. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 8
- 9. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Source: Feldhoff, GR Mai 2007
The World‘s Top-30-Airports (in terms of passenger traffic) and Share of World Regions
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 9
- 10. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
The future state:
forecasts & figures
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- 11. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
[T1] Tourism Future - New Geographies
2005 – 2025:
Two Asian Decades
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- 12. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Source: WTTC 2007
Asia‘s
Future
Tourism
Tigers
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- 13. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Source: WTTC 2007
Asia‘s
Future
Tourism
Tiger
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- 14. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Source: WTTC 2007
Asia‘s
Future
Tourism
Tigers
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- 15. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 15
- 16. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
LCC in Asia‘s Tourism Market [2006]
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- 17. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
UNWTO‘s Tourism 2020 Vision [International Tourist Arrivals Forecast]
Source: UNWTO: http://www.unwto.org/facts/eng/vision.htm
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- 18. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
UNWTO‘s Tourism 2020 Vision [Forecast]
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- 19. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Passenger Traffic Growth Forecasts 2006 – 2025 in World Regions
PaxKm 2005 in bn. Growth Forecast 2006 – 2025
Average Annual
Growth Rate
in %
Quelle: Feldhoff, GR Mai 2007
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 19
- 20. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
[T2] Tourism Future – „Ageing Europe“
Europe‘s New Burden -
Retirement Poverty
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- 21. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Tourism Future &
Ageing Europe Life exspectancy at birth, 2001
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- 22. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Tourism Future &
Ageing Europe
Population Ageing in the
EU, France and Italy, 2000-2050
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- 23. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Facts:
Tourism Future &
Ageing Europe • According to the United
Nations, population ageing is
• Population Ageing increasingly becoming one of the
most salient social, economic
and demographic phenomena of
• Depopulation our times.
• By 2030 the EU can expect
and 14 percent fewer workers and
7 percent fewer consumers as
2005
• Shrinking Cities
• By 2050, the number of people
over 60 in Europe will reach 40%
[in EUROPE]
of the total population or 60% of
the working age population.
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- 24. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Share of persons 60 years and over
Tourism Future & [as a % of the total population; Source: Eurostat]
Ageing Europe
Germany:
2000: 22,9% - 2020: 30% - 2050: 41%
Population Ageing in the EU:
• Germany Belgium:
• Belgium 2000: 22.1% - 2020: 30% - 2050: 38%
• Denmark
• Spain Denmark:
• France 2000: 19.9% - 2020: 28% - 2050: 36%
Spain:
Years 2000 / 2020 / 2050 2000: 21.8% - 2020: 28% - 2050: 44%
France:
2000: 20.7% - 2020: 29% - 2050: 38%
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- 25. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Consequences:
Tourism Future &
Ageing Europe
• Shrinking Income
• Shrinking Consumption
• Population Ageing • Skrinking Wealth
• Depopulation • Old Age Poverty &
• Social Exclusion
and
• Growing Health Risks &
• Long Term Health Problems
• Shrinking Cities
• Large Scale Immobilities &
[in EUROPE] • Neglected Space [Destinations]
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 25
- 26. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Results from the SHARE-Project
Consequences:
Tourism Future &
[http://www.share-project.org]
Ageing Europe
...clearly indicate that men • Shrinking Income
and women with a lower socio- • Shrinking Consumption
• Population Ageing
economic status have already a • Skrinking Wealth
worse physical health than
those with a higher socio-
• Depopulation • Old Age Poverty &
economic position
• Social Exclusion
Among both men and women, a
and
low educational level or income
• Growing Health Risks &
is associated with a higher risk
• Long Term Health Problems
• Shrinking Cities
of reporting less than good self-
perceived health, long-term
• Large Scale Immobilities &
problems, as well as activity
[in EUROPE] • Neglected Space [Destination]
limitations due to health
problems.
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- 27. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Consequences:
Tourism Future &
Ageing Europe
• Shrinking Income
• Shrinking Consumption
• Population Ageing • Skrinking Wealth
Discussed Solution:
• Depopulation New Migrant Workers:
• Old Age Poverty &
• Social Exclusion
80–700 million migrants by 2050!
and
• Growing Health Risks &
• Long Term Health Problems
• Shrinking Cities
A sustainable increase of
VFR-Tourism Immobilities &
• Large Scale shall follow!
[in EUROPE] • Neglected Space [Destination]
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- 28. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
[T3] Tourism Future – „VFR-Tourism“
„CU soon, my friend/brother“ -
Global
VFR-Tourism
Streams
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- 29. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
The Sustainable VFR-Tourism Trend in World Tourism
Data provided by: World Economic Forum; copyright © Maplecroft.NET Limited 2007
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 29
- 30. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
[T4] Tourism Future & Climate Change
„The Mediterranization of
Western- and Central-Europe“ -
Climate Change Advantages [?]
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 30
- 31. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
IPCC-Data: Variations of the Earth‘s surface temperature for:
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 31
- 32. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
IPCC-Data: Variations of the Earth‘s surface temperature for...
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 32
- 33. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Data provided by: World Economic Forum; copyright © Maplecroft.NET Limited 2007
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 33
- 34. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
IPCC-Data: Regional Warming [inter-modell consistancy]
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- 35. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
North Amerika Europe
Amerika
Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006
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- 36. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
North Amerika Europe
Amerika
Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006
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- 37. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
North Amerika Europe
Amerika
Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006
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- 38. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Caribbean North America North-East-Asia
Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006
Amerika
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- 39. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Caribbean North America North-East-Asia
Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006
Amerika
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- 40. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
Caribbean North America North-East-Asia
Source: Travel Research International 2002/2006
Elderly (esp. European)
may avoid travel to „very hot
summer destinations“; i. g.
Amerika
• the Mediterranean Basin
• East Coast USA
• South-West USA
• Australian Cities
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- 41. The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives
NW- and Central-
Europe‘s Domestic and
Incoming Tourism Streams
may benefit from CC in
the summer saison!
• Warmer Coastal Waters
[Increase in Sun & Beach Tourism]
• New Marine Attractions
[Dolphins, Fish Species, Algae and Corals, Birds]
• Warmer Land Surfaces &
• Mediterranization of Lifstyles
Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 41