This lecture was presented at a Joint Workshop of The Science, Technology, and Society (STS) Research Clusters of the Asia Research Institute (ARI) and Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences (FASS) of the National University of Singapore (NUS) And The Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society (RISTEX), Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) At Tembusu College, University Town, National University of Singapore on Climate Change, Disaster Management, and Urban Sustainability: STS Approaches to Three Asian Challenges on Dec. 6-7, 2011 A This workshop considered three inter-linked global challenges that are of particular concern to Asia. Asian countries have been in the forefront of efforts to help identify and mitigate global climate change, yet are also counted among the major contributors to that phenomenon. Disaster management has become something of an Asian specialty, given this region’s long experience with violent nature, yet natural disasters here are far from being fully managed. Urbanization in Asia has been burgeoning, for good and ill, and sustaining a high quality of urban life is intimately linked to the health of the natural environment. All of these challenges are also taking place in a social and political space where public awareness has never been higher, yet avenues for public engagement and action are often unclear. The three phenomena of climate change, disaster management, and urban sustainability are normally considered separately, and by different groups of experts. This workshop considered the links between them, and how lessons and approaches drawn from one realm might influence the others. Public involvement in solving such problems were also discussed. The organizers belief was that the inter-disciplinary field of STS (variously constructed as ‘Science, Technology, and Society’, ‘Science and Technology Studies’, or ‘Science and Technology for Society’) is a useful methodology, platform, and discourse around which these linkages can be activated. This was the first workshop jointly organized by the principle STS institutes in Japan (RISTEX) and Singapore (the STS Clusters of ARI and FASS at the National University of Singapore), and thus also reflected joint concerns of both countries and of the regions they’re in - East and Southeast Asia. It stemed out from a 2010 meeting in Tokyo in which STS pan-regional funding was discussed. In the spirit of that initial meeting, this workshop also included representatives from STS clusters in other Asian countries, and thus represented another step in trans-regional dialogue among interested practitioners, this time around some of the regions’ most pressing issues. Details: This is a closed workshop, by invitation only, with approximately 20 delegates. However, were some elements of the workshop were open to the NUS public.

1. Revised
'Glocal' Scenario Development
against Mineral-Fuel based
'Global Warming Civilization'
Masayuki Horio
JST-RISTEX R&D Area Director
Professor, Ryukoku University
Professor, Em., Tokyo Univ. A & T

2. 1. What are we developing at
JST-RISTEX Environment R&D
Area? : “Community Based Actions against
Global Warming and Environment Friendly Society”
2. How “'Glocal' Scenario Development
against Mineral-Fuel based
'Global Warming Civilization‘” works
for promoting
Socio-technical and Inter-
sectoral Collaboration?

3. Outline of Our R&D Program
Period: 2008-2013
Categories:
I: Fundamental R&D <<¥10M/y
II: w/ Social Experiments <¥30M/y
Applicants are requested to
1) organize collaborations among social/humanity
and natural/engineering sciences,
2) organize collaborations among academia,
local government, citizens and other stakeholders
3) submit a unique proposal with sociotechnical
scenario,
4) submit a quantitative estimation of GHG
reduction effect of the proposal

4. The program tackles the issues of:
1. Trans-sectoral cooperation-both in
government and academia
2. Equal partnership among local people,
government, industry and academia
3. Appropriate technical challenges
harmonized with social actions
4. Practical and profitable approaches
Rather than qualitative, ethical and
enlightening approaches
5. Trans-sectoral & regional target settings

5. Background assumption
Environmental and other social issues’
‘Common Cause’: Too much
dependency on fossil & mineral fuels of
the Present Modern Civilization

6. Then, Problems can be tied
together by
The Global Warming Issue
that has a clear metric
criterion

7. Program Design
Target
GHG reduction setting
Possible
Technical Target Social
Solutions Issues
Method to manage socio-
technical projects

8. Why 60-80% ?
To avoid disastrous climate change it is said that the
temperature rise must be within 2℃. To achieve it the
world GHG emission should be cut one half from the
Y 1990 value by Y 2050 and reduced further afterwards.
NIER data

9. To Make the World GHG Emission 50% from 1990 value
w/ equal rights and w/ high technical standard
Developed Countries ought to reduce by ~80%
If CO2 emissions is half of
Energy Consumption CO2 Emissions Y1990 and the standard of
consumption and emission is
Oil Equivalent Energy Carbon Equivalent based on Japanese per Capita
Consumption [MtOe] Emissions [Mt(C)] Equivalent for Y2000
Japanese Oil
Japanese
per Capita Equivalen CO2 Reducti
Achievement Achievement per Capita
Equivalent t Energy Emissi on for
Year Year Equivalent
‘Oil Consump ons Y2000
Countries ‘Carbon
Equivalent tion
Equivalent
Energry
Emissions’,
1990 2000 Consumption 1990 2000 Y2000
[MtOe] [Mt(C)] [%]
’, Y2000
Japan 437 524 524 290 325 325 97 60 82
USA 1928 2304 1166 1339 1577 723 215 134 92
Canada 209 251 127 117 143 79 23 15 90
UK 212 231 242 161 155 150 45 28 82
Germany 356 343 339 266 231 210 63 39 83
France 227 257 243 103 102 151 45 28 73
Italy 153 172 238 111 120 148 44 27 77
OECD Total 4517 5316 4661 3073 3463 2891 861 534 85
China 670 928 5179 666 881 3212 957 594 33
India 199 339 4448 155 268 2546 835 478 -78
Indonesia 56 102 951 41 73 544 179 102 -40
Brazil 145 216 778 59 92 445 146 84 10
Russia & NISs 1537 1028 1278 1024 632 732 240 137 78
Kenya 3 4 135 2 2 77 25 15 -522
Africa total 239 303 3544 194 238 2028 665 381 -60
World Total 7797 9042 24896 5707 6407 15441 4601 2853 55

10. Possible technical solutions for
GHG Minus 80%
Japan’s case 【Transportation】
Changing All to EV
【Electricity】
Introducing
Renewables
【Livelihood】 (preferentially
Promoting replacing coal
Energy saving first)
well insulated
10
woody building

11. Designing Target social issues:
Causes of Slow Changes
Environment-Ethics Approaches’
Effectiveness limited.
Demonstrations depending on
Government Funds tend to become
uneconomical and not attractive
Too small Focus on Social Aspects;
too much focus on technology
Insufficient Support for Local Initiative

12. Designing social Issues
Changing Engineers’ & Scientists’ Attitude:
Institutional Systems Design for Technical Innovation
Changing Academia, Consultants, Local Government
& NPO: From Analytical & Enlightenment Approach
to Collaborative Design Approach
Changing Local Government: Green Reconstruction
of the Local Techno-social system with Pride
Changing Project Planners: Design Thinking needed
to Integrate Issues for Comprehensive Solution
Changing Distributors & Consumer Activists: Design
Thinking needed to Make Supply Chain Green

13. Question ‘For whom?’ ‘For what?’
To accelerate real changes
Raise real actors!
Local people/municipality/industry
empowerment
for renewable energy and energy saving lifestyle
with more consciousness on local resources and
ecological lifestyle

14. Local Potential Build-up
Necessary for Essential Changes
Mineral Fuel Systems: Energy is
Distributed from Concentrated Stations
Renewable Energies: Sources are
distributed and in-situ Consumption
effective; Local best Mix exists
Massive Energy Saving: Local Ingenuity
and Cost Consciousness needed

15. Method to manage socio-
technical projects
In the proposal and yearly plan
submission of ‘quantification’ table
has been requested.

16. Quantification of Social Issues
relevant to GHG Reduction Scenario
Mass-Energy Scenario Technical scenario
development not
for GHG reduction accommodating the
○○t/unit present social system
× Social and temporal
Social Scenario scenario
□units/yr •System inspection
Reform plan, human resource •Policy development
raising, rate acceleration •Consensus development
•Human resource and
governance development
＝ Real reduction
potential △△ t/yr

17. Program Structure to avoid
‘moody’ environment projects

18. Conducting Social Experiments
-- A New Approach --
Social Experiment of the 1st Kind:
Social Experiments conducted by a Definite
Steering and Observing Group to Examine
Collective Effect of Introducing New Technical
Parts or Institutional Rules
Social Experiment of the 2nd Kind:
Social Experiments conducted by Community
based Steering and Observing Group for Their
own Empowerment;
Conductor=Object=Observer

19. New approach taken by MIC for
Biomass Program Evaluation 2011
Ministry of Internal Affairs and
Communications (MIC) just recently
published a Report with Admonition to
Biomass Projects over the last 8 yrs.
For 112 Projects having some
quantitative data;
GHGs balance: 440kt/y increase!
(reduction 260, emission 700kt/y)

20. Projects ongoing nationwide
Development of Techniques and Theories Development of the Method of Evidence-
3 based Analysis for Regional Sustain-
for the Integrated Restoration and 2
Revitalization of Local Commons ability in Economy and Environment
Unified Commercialization Policy for Utilizing Construction of the Town of Kiryu for
10 Local Renewables and Local Finances through the Future with Anti-Global-Warming
6
Inter-Regional Cooperation through the Regional Power
To establish Regional Community System Forest and City Lincage for Sustainable
5 that Exits from Inducing Global Warming 11 utilization of Wood and Biomass
through Introducing Micro Hydro power
Feasibility Study of the Eco-service
１ Business Model using Eco-point system
Proposing a Scenario and Road Map
４
to realize a Nature Friendly Society De-’global warming’ through inducing
8 Model for the Sustainable Shiga 17 voluntary actions in Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo
“Sato-model” in Mountainous Region Sustainable Intermediate/Mountainous
to tackle with Global Warming 12 Region Development via Eco-Mobility
13 Creating a Low-Carbon Production, Retail
Greening Model
7 & Shopping System for Nagoya
Development for Existing
Urban Area Education and Utilization of Local Public Human
16 Resources for Local Renewable Energy System
Local full participation System Development
14
Development for Promoting I/U-Turn
Settlements and Local Business Creation B Stule: Local Resource based
15 Sustainable Settlement Development
＝Coworkers
location 20
＝From 2008 ＝From 2009 ＝From 2010

21. Some examples

22. New role of Engineering Faculty of
Gunma Univ. in Local City, Kiryu
Public Transportation
Ｃｉｔｙ Ｇｏｖｅｒｎｍｅｎｔ School of Engineering
Companies
Gunma Univ.
Framework JR East Japan
City of Kiryu Agreement Graduate School Tobu Railway
Jomo Dentetsu
Gunma Pref. Forest Res. of Engineering Watarase Creek
Railway
Cooperative School of Social Informatics
Association of In- JSTproject
Town University & Next Gen. Eco-Energy Soc.
Town w/ University
Northern Kanto Industry-
Eng. Sci. Club Next Gen. EV Academia cooperation So
Local Media Research Soc.
News Paper, FM Stn. Assoc for Preserving Kiryu’sAssoc.
Eco Life Design Clean
Education Borad Rivers and Forests
Local Elementary and Kiryu Netwrk for Citizens Activity
Private Companies Group for Designing the Public
Jr High Schools
Sanyo Electric Co. (160000 Pupils) Transportation of y2015
Fuji Heavy Ind. Watarase Creek RailRd Citizens’
Taiyo Yuden Co Commerce & Ind. Assoc. Comission
Kiryu City Gas Kiryu Coucil of Commerce Fasion Town Kiryu Promotion
Mitsuba Co. Merchants Assoc. Tam Eco
Ogura Clutch Co. COOP Kiryu Rennovation
NPOs
Yamada Kiryu Youth Council Green & Clean Kiryu
Seisakusho Co. Gardeners’ Assoc. Kiryu Assoc of 1-2 Honmachi

23. Cultural Biomass Utilization

24. City Exploration by Citizens &
Students

25. Their Original EV Development is
now leading JST’s Low Speed EV
Community Bus Development
Their original in-
wheel motors have
been be used for
the new 8 wheel
Photo2 （μ-TT2）
community bus
Photo1(Mouse concept)
Engineers retired
from Subaru Motor
Co. and related parts
manufacturers
collaborated under
the guide of Gunma
Univ. Photo3(Inwheel Motor）
4(8wheeeled community bus)

26. 8 wheel, battery exchanging
EV-community bus
Exchangeable Lithium-ion battery
Solar panel
Eight wheeled!
2011.9.17

27. JST-Environment R&D Area’s
EV development Strategy
●Strategy-1 Protecting local life (Fuel cost saving
and providing low cost public transportation service)
●Strategy-2 Developing lively Glocal town
●Strategy-3 Promoting new local industrial actors
(Reviving local industry for post ‘mineral fuel era’)
●Point１ Convenient for both children and elderly)
(Revitalization of shopping streets and tourist towns)
●Point ２ Smart energy utilization by battery storage
●Point３ Realization of national innovation issue of
EV community transportation

28. Supply Chain Issue
Shopping Revolution Project
Forest-to-Town Project

29. Supply Chain Issue
◆High CO2 Emission Chain
A HighCO2
factory B
HighCO2
Transport C High CO2
Sales D
capital house
Capital capital hold
actors actors actors Consumer
contract contract
契約 contract
契約
Innovation
Scenario Platform Platform Platform
contract
契約 contract
契約 contract
契約
actors
関係者 actors
関係者 actors Consumer
消費者
関係者
capital house
capital capital
hold
A LowCO2
Industry B
LowCO2
Transport C LowCO2
sales D
◆Low CO2 Emission Chain

30. Making Supply Chain Green by
Drawing Consumers’ Active Role
Distributor
Consumer Manufacturer
・Topos for Mutual ・New Relationship for
Learning
・changing Lyfestyle Consumers and
・Emerging Management
・Changing Purchasing Distributors
・Communication
Behavior ・New Commodity
Connecting Manufacturer Development
& Consumer 30

31. Social Experiments
Low Carbon Commodity Development through
Consumer-Distributor-Manufacturer Mutual
Learning
New Floor Management for Super Markets
developing with Customers
New Life Recipe Development to Evolve into
Consumers having New Value System
31

32. Shopping Revolution!
Back yard tour for Researchers’ Club
＜eco!on商品の紹介＞
＜eco!on商品の紹介＞ ＜エコ野菜の紹介＞

33. Shopping Revolution!
Workshop in Nagoya
＜ワークショップ風景＞ ＜発表風景＞

34. Forest-to-Town Project
Forest Logs Lumber waiting Law temperature
Forest dryer（45℃）
management at lumbermill for drying
Young/skilled ‘Round Table’ Academic
proof!
worker Direct-linkage actor raising
Academic
proof! for direct cash flow back to
Training mountainside
Woody “Eco”-houses
Builder
production
Lumbering
Precutting
Furniture,
Painting
& panel
Wooden
fittings,
Academic
etc.
Carrying-in to proof!
building sites
Scientific proof and certification system 34
design for financial and institutional supports

35. Inter-sectoral and
Urban-Countryside
Collaboration projects
Welcome to the Country Project
Yasaka Village in Hamada-city, 1600 to 5000 Project
Green Electricity Purchase
Project

36. Urban-Countryside Collaboration
Energy
Saving
Pop
red
Back to ucti
Countryside City
the
foreign payment
on
Pre-
Rich in Renewables and
Country Giga-demand bac sent
Green Electricity k
再エネ
Ho
Back Home Wind
me
Regional Cooperation
μ-Hydro
PV
2050 for Renewables
Money 2050
Future
Renewables PV
Solar Heat Own
Saving
Forest bio. Wood waste Resource Ren
Demand Supply Waste OilSupply Demand
Present foreign payment

37. Welcome to the Country Project
Yasaka Village in Hamada-city, 1600 to 5000 Project
Organizing Support from Local Authorities
Settlement Promotion, Passing on
Traditions and Reconciliation
Organization of Community Charter
Community Business Formulation
Invigoration of Development of
Community Community
Activity Delights
Promotion of Independent Thinking
Cooperative Study on the Community
& Resources

38. Urban-countryside population
exchange should also be formulated
in terms of its GHG reduction effect
Urban-
Real reduction Countryside
countryside
＝ population ×
t-CO2/yr increase
difference in per
capita GHG
emission
Effect of population transfer
＋ On site reduction effort
CO2 adsorption activity
＋ including forest
management and
nature restoration

39. How effective is the ‘Back to the
Country’ in Japan?
39

40. Depopulation serious in Countryside
% % Primary Sectors Tertiary Sectors
60.0 (Service Industry)
i.e. Countryside
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
Secondary Sectors
10.0 (Manufacturing Industry)
0.0
40
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
19
u
Primary Industry Secondary
Japan 1940-90
Tertiary

41. ‘Back to the Country’
Background in Japan
Much Improvements in Transportation
& Communication Systems
Cities and Villages are rather close
Departure from previous policies:
1. defensive counteraction against de-population
2. ‘New Industrial City’ program, a simple
industrialization model
41

42. Japan’s high micro-hydro potential comes from
its high precipitation and steep and short rivers.

43. Well developed Farm Irrigation & the
steep Mountain-to-Coast Water Flow
sea horizon
Sado・Iwakubi district 2010

44. Simple Evaluation:
‘Back to the Country’
by Horio & Hidaka (2011)
Population Renewable Energy Recharge
Holding Storage Evaluation
Capacity of =
Countryside Per Capita Energy Demand after
Greening
2050
GHG Effect of Urban Full
Reduction Population Red- Renewables’
Potential of
‘Back to the
=
uction: Reduction of
fossil fuel fired  Utilization at
Countryside
power generation (also by
Country’ (0.083kg-CO2/MJ) newcomers)
44
堀尾正靱

45. Population and Renewable’s
Potential by Horio & Hidaka (2011)
Households and population in different regions (2005)
Households
Households
number population
Urban region 80.5％ 39,495,337 100,603,432
Flat Farming region 8.6％ 4,219,378 10,747,696
Intermediate Farming region 7.9％ 3,875,940 9,872,883
Mountainous farming region 3.0％ 1,471,876 3,749,196
Total 100.0％ 49,062,530 124,973,207
Recharge Storage of Renewables
Undeveloped Heat Electricity
Renewables （ＧＪ/yr） （kWh/yr） （ＧＪ/yr）
Wood biomass 121,317,806 6,037,715,712 21,735,777
Hydro － 44,779,636,000 161,206,690
Geotherm － 19,030,000,000 68,508,000
Wind (on shore) － 12,264,000,000 45
44,150,400 堀尾正靱

46. GHG Reduction Potential
by Horio & Hidaka (2011)
Total（t-CO2/yr）
Present GHG emission
Intermediate &
Urban Region Flat Farming Region Mountainous Farming 239,661,815
Region (‘Country’)
192,927,760 20,610,916 26,123,139
CO2 Emission Reduction by Countryside Greening and Back to
the 'Country' Action
Urban CO2 Reduction by 101,403,139
Present ‘Country’ Greening
back to the ‘Country’
26,123,139 75,280,000
％ CO2 Emission Reduction 42（％）

47. Busy Countryside Contributes
GHG Reduction by Horio & Hidaka (2011)
Population [Million]
Case Intermediate &
Urban ＆ Flat
Mountainous Farming
Farming Regions
Region (Country)
Present 12 108
BAU 2050 9 81
Case Back to the
24 66
`Country’2050
47
堀尾正靱

48. Thank you very much for your attention!
Comments are appreciated.
Please forward them to
myhorio06@ca.wakwak.com