1. 1
North Central Florida
Regional Planning Council

2. 2
Incorporating Disaster Plans
into Comprehensive Economic
Development Strategies
National Association of Development Organizations
2013 Annual Training Conference
San Francisco, CA
August 25, 2013
Scott R. Koons, AICP
Executive Director
North Central Florida Regional Planning Council
Gainesville, FL

3. 3
Economic and Disaster Resiliency

4. 4
Overview
 North Central Florida Region
 Study Partners
 Hazards Analysis
 Vulnerability Analysis
 Economic Analysis
 Conclusions

5. 5
Regional Planning Councils
 2/3 Local Elected Officials
 1/3 Gubernatorial
Appointees
 Counties Mandatory
and Cities Voluntary

6. 6
 11 counties and 33 municipalities
(13 member cities)
 7,000 square miles
 500,000 population
North Central Florida Region

7. 7
Atlantic Tropical Storms and Hurricanes

8. 8
Study Partners
FEMA
Regional Economic Models, Inc., Policy Insight Plus
Microsoft Excel
U.S. Department of Commerce,
Economic Development Administration
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Weather Service

9. 9
Hazards Analysis
 County Maps:
Hurricane Surge
Freshwater Flooding
Wildfire Hazard

10. 10
Category 5 Hurricane Storm Surge

11. 11
North Central Florida
100-Year Flood Zones

12. 12
Wildfire Level of Concern

13. 13
Vulnerability Analysis
 Maps of jobs by industry, housing by decade
built, critical infrastructures and staging areas by
Census Block Group.
 Identifies industries densely located in
hurricane/flooding prone areas.

14. 14
Residential Parcels

15. 15
Commercial and Industrial Parcels
within 100-Year Flood Zone

16. 16
Critical Infrastructure

17. 17
Economic Analysis
 Consequences of Category 5 Hurricane in
North Central Florida
 Positive Impacts (Reconstruction, Spending,
Cleanup Activity, Influx of Federal Funds)
 Negative Impacts (Job Loss, Population Loss,
County Government Revenue Loss)
 Associated Indirect Impacts

18. 18
Impact Analysis Building Blocks
 Council - Hurricane Tracks
 National Weather Service -
Hurricane Modeling Information
 HazUS - Building Damage
 Council - Direct Impacts (Job Losses,
Population Losses, Recovery Times)
 Regional Economic Models, Inc. - Indirect Impacts

19. 19
Hypothetical Hurricanes

20. 20
Hypothetical Hurricane Assumptions
 Two Hypothetical Category 5 Hurricanes
Developed by National Weather Service
 Enter Region from Gulf of Mexico
 6 - 7 Hours to Traverse Region
 29-Mile Radius of Maximum Winds
 Enter with 160-170 mph Maximum Winds
 Exit with 95 mph Maximum Winds

21. 21
North Track Hurricane Path

22. 22
South Track Hurricane Path

23. 23
North Central Florida Region
Direct Impacts - North Track Hurricane
 10% Capital Stock (Building) Loss
 15% Buildings Severely Damaged or Destroyed
 13% Population Loss
 8% Job Loss
 Basic Industry Jobs Recovered in 5 Years

24. 24
North Central Florida Region Direct Impacts
North Track Hurricane - Building Damage
Use
Percentage of Buildings Damaged by Degree of Damage
None Minor Moderate Severe Destroyed Total
Agriculture 40.5 20.1 17.1 16.4 5.9 100.0
Commercial 51.5 15.1 15.6 16.0 1.9 100.0
Education 75.8 12.1 6.3 5.8 0.1 100.0
Government 51.6 14.1 14.3 19.5 0.5 100.0
Industrial 48.2 14.6 15.1 19.6 2.4 100.0
Religion 50.7 17.5 14.5 15.8 1.5 100.0
Residential 50.0 20.8 14.9 6.6 7.7 100.0
Total 50.2 20.4 14.9 7.3 7.2 100.0

25. 25
North Central Florida Region
Direct Impacts - South Track Hurricane
 47% Capital Stock (Buildings) Loss
 53% Buildings Severely Damaged/Destroyed
 30% Population Loss
 22% Job Loss
 Basic Industry Jobs Recovered in 6 Years

26. 26
North Central Florida Region Direct Impacts
- South Track Hurricane - Building Damage
Use
Percentage of Buildings Damaged by Degree of Damage
None Minor Moderate Severe Destroyed Total
Agriculture 11.8 10.5 20.7 40.7 16.3 100.0
Commercial 11.3 7.3 19.7 55.4 6.4 100.0
Education 4.8 3.9 13.8 75.9 1.7 100.0
Government 12.5 7.1 16.6 62.5 1.4 100.0
Industrial 10.5 6.8 16.6 61.1 5.0 100.0
Religion 13.2 10.3 21.2 51.5 3.9 100.0
Residential 13.9 11.9 22.3 26.1 25.9 100.0
Total 13.7 11.5 22.1 28.3 24.4 100.0

27. 27
Direct Impacts - Assumptions
 All Damaged Basic Industry Buildings
Repaired/Rebuilt
 All Basic Industry Jobs and Associated
Population Returns
 All Homes with Mortgages are Repaired/Rebuilt
and Associated Population Returns

28. 28
Direct Impacts - Assumptions, Continued
 Half of Homes without Mortgages are
Repaired/Rebuilt and Associated Population
Returns
 Recovery of Non-Basic Industry Jobs Determined
by Regional Economic Models, Inc.
 Recovery of Population Associated with Non-Basic
Jobs Determined by Regional Economic Models,
Inc.

29. 29
Total Impacts
Direct Impacts
+ Indirect Impacts
= Total Impacts

30. 30
North Central Florida Region
Total Impacts - Jobs
150
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
JobsThousands
w/o Hurricane
South Track
Hurricane
North Track
Hurricane
South Track
Hurricane with
FEMA Disaster &
Debris Assistance
North Track
Hurricane with
FEMA Disaster &
Debris Assistance
Source: North Central Florida Regional Planning Council, 2011

31. 31
North Central Florida Region
Total Impacts - Population
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
PersonsThousands
w/o Hurricane
South Track
Hurricane
North Track
Hurricane
South Track
Hurricane with
FEMA Disaster &
Debris Assistance
North Track
Hurricane with
FEMA Disaster &
Debris Assistance
Source: North Central Florida Regional Planning Council, 2011

32. 32
North Central Florida Region Total Impacts -
County Government Revenue
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
RevenueMillions
w/o Hurricane
South Track
Hurricane
North Track
Hurricane
South Track
Hurricane with
FEMA Disaster
& Debris
Assistance
North Track
Hurricane with
FEMA Disaster
& Debris
Assistance
Source: North Central Florida Regional Planning Council, 2011

33. 33
Conclusions
 Basic Industry Jobs Return
 Federal Assistance to Basic Industries
Reduces Recovery Times
 Non-basic Jobs Dependent on County
Population

34. 34
Conclusions, Continued
 Minimize Non-Basic Industry Job Loss
by Retaining Population
Federal Disaster and Debris Removal
Assistance Provides Boost to Local
Economy For 3 Years After Disaster,
Little Impact Thereafter

35. 35
For More Information
Study Available at www.ncfrpc.org
or Contact Scott R. Koons, AICP, Executive Director, at
koons@ncfrpc.org

36. 36
North Central Florida Regional Planning Council
2009 NW 67th Place
Gainesville, FL 32653-1603
352.955.2200
www.ncfrpc.org