1. CDM potential of renewable energy
technologies in India
Pallav Purohit
GGI Meeting
Wednesday 17th October 2007

2. Contents
Background
Characteristics of renewable energy technologies
Renewable energy development in India
Potential of renewable energy technologies in India
CDM rules for small scale renewable energy technologies
Contribution of the CDM to make renewable energy
technologies viable in India
Diffusion of renewable energy technologies in India
Conclusions

3. Background
The global energy needs will be almost 60% higher in 2030
than they are now (IEA, 2006).
2/3rd of this increase will arise in China, India and other rapidly
developing economies, which will account for almost half the
energy consumption by 2030.
The global power sector will need to build some 4,800 GW of
new capacity between now and 2030.
In the 11th Five Year Plan, the Govt. of India aims to achieve a
GDP growth rate of 10% and maintain an average growth of
about 8% in the next 15 years.

4. The development challenge
Population without access to electricity, selected countries Motor vehicles per 1000 people, selected countries
Development ObjectivesDevelopment Objectives –– economic growth, equity and human welleconomic growth, equity and human well--beingbeing

5. Renewable energy use in
developing countries
Low energy consumption and poor quality of life
Oil import related problems
Availability of renewable energy resources (solar,
wind, hydro, biomass etc.)
Low purchasing power of potential users
Fuel gatherers not buyers
Unemployment and underemployment

6. Characteristics of renewable
energy technologies
Large, inexhaustible source
Clean source of energy
Low density: dilute source of energy
High costs due to the large collection areas
Availability varies with time (i. e. intermittent source
of energy)
Additional cost due to the storage requirements (i. e.
PV systems)
Appropriate technological solutions and strategies which can make efficient and
effective use of available manpower?

7. Renewable energy development in India
• Importance recognized in mid 70s
• Department of Non-Conventional Energy Sources in 1982
• Upgraded to Ministry (Ministry of Non-conventional Energy
Sources) in 1992
• IREDA (Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency) set up
in 1987
• Thrust given to resource assessment, technology development
and demonstration
• Several technologies are now commercially viable

8. Indian power sector
(Installed capacity: 135 GW till August 2007)
Hydro
25%
Nuclear
3%
Renewable
8%
Coal
53%
Gas
10%
Oil
1%
Thermal
64%
Source: Ministry of Power, Govt. of India

9. Estimated potential and cumulative achievements
of renewable energy technologies (RETs) in India
Estimated potential Cumulative achievementsS. No. Sources / Systems
Unit Potential Unit Achievements
I. Power from Renewables
A. Grid-interactive renewable power
1. Bio power (Agro residues) MWe 16,881 MW 5100
2. Wind power MWe 45,195 MW 6315.00
3. Small hydro power (up to 25 MW) MWe 15,000 MW 1905.00
4. Bagasse cogeneration MWe 5,000 MW 602.00
5. Waste to energy MWe 2,700 MW 40.95
Sub Total (in MW) (A) MWe 84,776 MW 9372.95
B. Distributed renewable power
6. Solar power - - MW 2.92
7 Biomass power/Cogeneration
(non-bagasse)
- - MW 34.30
8. Biomass gasifier - - MW 75.85
9. Waste-to-energy - - MW 11.03
Sub Total (B) - - MW 124.10
Total ( A + B ) - - MW 9497.05
Source: MNRE (2007)

10. Diffusion criteria's for the large scale diffusion
of RETs in India
Resource availability
Technological appropriateness
Financial/economic viability
Environmental sustainability
Energetic viability
Socio-cultural acceptance
Social/environmental
barriers
O&M cost
capital cost
Cost
effectiveness
Site
selection
Technical
barriers
Local capacity: infrastructure and
knowledge barriers
Political, institutional and
legislative barriers
Economic/
financial
barriers

11. Potential of renewable energy
technologies in India
End use Technology Theoretical Potential
SPV lanterns 97 millionLighting
Solar home lighting systems 97 million
Cooking Box type solar cookers 97 million
Water heating Solar water heating systems 27 million
SPV pumps 70 millionWater pumping
Windmill pumps 2.4 million
Bagasse cogeneration 6 GWPower generation
Biomass gasification 31 GW
Source: Own estimates

12. Wind power potential in India
(Source: CWET, 2006)(Source: CWET, 2006)

13. Clean Development Mechanism

14. CDM benefits for industrialized and
developing countries
Industrialized Countries
CDM emission reductions count towards the GHG emissions
targets of the Kyoto Protocol.
Lower cost for GHG emissions reductions in developing
countries than in industrialized countries.
Opportunities to market new technologies in developing
countries.
Developing countries
CDM projects generate sustainable development benefits
(for example sustainable energy and poverty reduction).
Transfer of technologies to achieve sustainable development
Additional financial assistance for sustainable development

15. Expected average CER from registered
projects by host party
Source: cdm.unfccc.int

16. Registered project activities by host party
Source: cdm.unfccc.int

17. Baseline
The baseline for a CDM project
activity is the scenario that
reasonably represents GHG
emissions that would occur in the
absence of the proposed project
activity.
Difference between the baseline
emissions and GHG emissions
after implementing the CDM
project activity (project emissions)
is emission reductions.

18. Additionality
A CDM project activity is additional if GHG emissions are
reduced below those that would have occurred in the absence
of the registered CDM project activity.
Environmental additionality
real emissions reduction
Financial additionality
ensure that ODA (Official Development Assistance) is not
reclassified as CDM funding
Technological additionality
ensures appropriate transfer of technology
Investment additionality
baseline FDI is not categorized as CDM funds

19. Small scale CDM (SSC) projects
Renewable energy project
activities with a maximum
output capacity equivalent of
up to 15 MW,
Energy efficiency improvement
project activities which reduce
energy consumption by an
amount equivalent to 60 GWh
per year,
Other project activities whose
emission reductions are less
than 60 kt CO2 per year.

20. Additionality for SSC project activities

21. Status of the wind power projects
from India
Registered
20%
Reg. request
2%
At validation
76%
Rejected
2%

22. CDM potential of solar energy
systems in India
0
50
100
150
200
250
SPV lanterns Solar home
lighting
systems
SPV pumps Solar water
heating
systems
Box type
solar cookers
CDMpotential(millionCER)

23. CDM potential through bagasse cogeneration
Annual CO2 emissions mitigation potential (million tonne)State
Region Baseline
(kg CO2/kWh)
Annual estimated potential
(million tonne)
Uttar Pradesh Northern 0.75 9.93
Maharashtra Western 0.89 4.58
Tamilnadu Southern 0.86 3.56
Karnataka Southern 0.86 3.31
Andhra Pradesh Southern 0.86 1.73
Gujarat Western 0.89 1.26
Haryana Northern 0.75 0.80
Punjab Northern 0.75 0.75
Uttaranchal Northern 0.75 0.65
Bihar Eastern 1.04 0.69
Madhya Pradesh Western 0.89 0.21
West Bengal Eastern 1.04 0.23
Assam North Eastern 0.45 0.05
Orissa Eastern 1.04 0.08
Others --- 0.86 0.13
All India 27.95

24. CDM potential of wind power
Annual CDM potential
(million tonnes)
State Gross
potential
(MW)
Technical
potential
(MW) Gross Technical
Andhra Pradesh 8275 1750 15.6 3.3
Gujarat 9675 1780 19.0 3.5
Karnataka 6620 1120 12.5 2.1
Kerala 875 605 1.6 1.1
Madhya Pradesh 5500 825 10.8 1.6
Maharashtra 3650 3020 7.2 5.9
Orissa 1700 680 3.9 1.5
Rajasthan 5400 895 8.9 1.5
Tamilnadu 3050 1750 5.8 3.3
West Bengal 450 450 1.0 1.0
All India 86.2 24.9

25. Diffusion of renewable energy
technologies in India
As per the logistic model, the cumulative number, N(t), of
the renewable energy systems disseminated up to a
particular period (tth year) can be expressed as
where the regression coefficients a and b are estimated
by a linear regression of the log-log form of the above
equation, i.e.
( )
( )
( ) ⎥
⎦
⎤
⎢
⎣
⎡
+
= +
+
bta
bta
e1
e
MtN
( )
( ) tba
M
tN
1
M
tN
ln +=
⎥
⎥
⎥
⎦
⎤
⎢
⎢
⎢
⎣
⎡
−

26. Diffusion of SPV lighting technologies
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
Cumulativenumberofsolarhomelightingsystems(mill
SSshs
OSshs
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Year
CumulativenumberofSPVlanterns(millio
SSspvl
OSspvl
SPV lanterns Solar home lighting systems

27. Projected values of the cumulative number of
RETs and associated CER generation
Cumulative capacity/number of
RETs (GW/million)
Annual CER generation
(million)
Year
SS OS SS OS
1. Bagasse cogeneration
2012 3.8 5.0 20 26
2020 5.4 5.5 28 28
2. Biomass gasification
2012 166 478 0.31 0.89
2020 490 1373 0.91 2.56
3. Small Hydro Power
2012 4 8 11 23
2020 7 10 21 28
4. Wind power projects
2012 22 36 41 67
2020 41 44 78 83
5. Windmill Pumps (No.)
2012 6 23 13 47
2020 34 130 69 264

28. Estimated CDM potential of RETs in India
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Solar Wind Biomass Small Hydro Total
CDMpotential(millionCER)

29. Conclusions
The state-wise potential of RET’s has been estimated alongwith the
associated CDM potential.
Identification of niche area(s) of renewable energy utilization could be
useful for their market penetration .
CER generation in India could theoretically reach more than 500 million
tonnes per year.
CDM could help to achieve the maximum utilization potential of RETs
more rapidly as compared to the current diffusion trend of RETs in
India if supportive policies are introduced.
In case of SETs and windmill pumps, to close the gap between the
mitigation cost and the CER price subsidies are required.

30. Thank You
Further information:
purohit@iiasa.ac.at