Seminar yade-taondyande-05-06-13
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Food Consumption Dynamics in West Africa, presented by Mbaye Yade and Maurice Taondyandé from ReSAKSS-WA at West Africa Hub Seminar, 05 June 2013
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Seminar yade-taondyande-05-06-13
- 1. www.iita.org WEST AFRICA HUB SEMINAR 05 JUNE 2013 FOOD CONSUMPTION DYNAMICS IN WEST AFRICA By Mbaye Yade and Maurice Taondyandé ReSAKSS-WA
- 2. www.iita.org INTRODUCTION ANALYSIS BASED ON HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS IMPLEMENTED IN 7 COUNTRIES: • BURKINA FASO (1994 & 2009) • COTE D’IVOIRE (1993 & 2008) • GHANA (1992 & 2006) • MALI (1989 & 2006) • NIGER (2005) • SENEGAL (1994 & 2002) • TOGO (2006) • COUNTRIES FOOD BALANCE SHEETS
- 3. www.iita.org OUTLINE HOUSEHOLD INCOME TRENDS AND INEQUALITIES CALORIE INTAKE ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARE TRENDS FOOD CONSUMPTION (QUANTITIES) TRENDS DETERMINANTS OF FOOD CONSUMPTION DYNAMICS FOOD CONSUMPTION FORECAST
- 8. www.iita.org DIET DIVERSIFICATION CONTRIBUTION OF FOOD PRODUCTS TO CALORIE INTAKE
- 9. www.iita.org ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES Share of food expenditure in total expenditure
- 10. www.iita.org ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES Food expenditure share according to household income level
- 11. www.iita.org ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES Absolute budget shares in 2000s Item and item groups Burkina Faso 2009 Mali 2006 Senegal 2002 Côte d'Ivoire 2008 Ghana 2006 Cereals 55.1 44.5 31.4 25.7 22.8 Rice 12.8 19 17 18.6 11.2 Maize 11.9 4 0.5 3.6 5.5 Millet/sorghum 27 17.7 4.2 0.4 0.6 Wheat 2.3 3.5 9.3 3 5.1 Other cereals 1.1 0.4 0.4 0 0.3 Root/tub and plantain 0.6 1.9 2.4 16.8 15 Cassava 6.6 7.1 Yam 6.2 4.8 Other root and tub 0.9 0.4 Plantain 3 2.8 Fruits and vegetables 6.1 9.9 12.6 15.7 13.9 Animal products and fish 10 22.2 25.8 22.6 29.2
- 12. www.iita.org ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARE Rice Trends
- 13. www.iita.org ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES Maize Trends
- 15. www.iita.org ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES Wheat Trends
- 16. www.iita.org ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES Roots and tubers Trends
- 17. www.iita.org ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES Fruits and vegetables Trends
- 18. www.iita.org ABSOLUTE BUDGET SHARES Animals products and fish
- 19. www.iita.org PER CAPITA FOOD CONSUMPTION TRENDS RICE
- 20. www.iita.org GREAT DEPENDENCY ON RICE IMPORTS
- 21. www.iita.org PER CAPITA FOOD CONSUMPTION TRENDS MILLET/SORGHUM
- 22. www.iita.org PER CAPITA FOOD CONSUMPTION TRENDS WHEAT
- 23. www.iita.org WHAT DRIVED THE CHANGES IN FOOD CONSUMPTION
- 24. www.iita.org ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH OF PER CAPITA EXPENDITURE
- 25. www.iita.org ANNUAL AVERAGE GROWTH OF PER CAPITA EXPENDITURE
- 26. www.iita.org FOOD CONSUMPTION OUTLOOK IN WEST AFRICA
- 27. www.iita.org TOTAL MARGINAL BUDGET SHARE OF FOOD DEMAND
- 28. www.iita.org MARGINAL BUDGET SHARES OF STAPLE PRODUCTS IN URBAN AREAS
- 29. www.iita.org MARGINAL BUDGET SHARES OF STAPLE PRODUCTS IN RURAL AREAS
- 30. www.iita.org MARGINAL BUDGET SHARES OF ANIMAL PRODUCTS IN URBAN AREAS
- 31. www.iita.org MARGINAL BUDGET SHARES OF ANIMAL PRODUCTS IN RURAL AREAS
- 35. www.iita.org CONCLUSIONS • CALORIE REQUIREMENTS MET IN AVERAGE IN BURKINA FASO, COTE D’IVOIRE AND SENEGAL; AND NOT IN NIGER AND TOGO • DIET CHARACTERIZED BY EXCESSIVE CONSUMPTION OF CARBOHYDRATES AND UNDERCONSUMPTION OF FAT AND PROTEIN • SHARE OF FOOD EXPENDITURE IN TOTAL EXPENDITURE VERY HIGH, RANGING FROM 39% TO 60 % • INCREASE IN CONSUMPTION OF IMPORTED COMMODITIES (RICE AND WHEAT) AT THE EXPENSE OF LOCAL FOOD • WITH RESPECT TO ANIMAL PRODUCTS: INCREASE OF FISH IMPORTS AT EXPENSE OF LOCAL MEAT
- 36. www.iita.org CONCLUSIONS • URBAIZATION SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF THE OVERALL TRENDS IN FOOD DEMAND, IN PARTICULAR FOR RICE AND WHEAT • DECREASE IN CONSUMPTION OF LOCAL FOOD CAN BE ATTRIBUTABLE TO THE POORS WHILE INCREASE IN RICE AND IMPORTED PRODUCTS TO THE RICHER QUINTILES • PROJECTED IMPORT NEEDS FOR WHEAT (100% OF DEMAND); RICE AND FISH (50% OF DEMAND); CASSAVA (15% OF DEMAND); YAM (10% OF DEMAND) • PROJECTED EXPORT POTENTIAL FOR MAIZE, MILLET/SORGHUM AND PLANTAIN
Notas del editor
- Sources : « Etude sur la consommation alimentaire en Afrique de l ’ Ouest. » A joint work ReSAKSS-WA/Michigan State University that analyzed national databases of consumption surveys in 7 West African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo), involving national teams. The overall objective of the study was to evaluate changes that occurred in the food consumption patterns of rural and urban populace of the sub-region over the past 25 years. « Dynamique de la consommation alimentaire en Afrique de l ’ Ouest » – Report prepared by Maurice Taondyandé and Mbaye Yade (ReSAKSS-WA) as part of the broader study by AfDB, FAO and ECOWAS on “ Agricultural Growth in West Africa: Market Factors and Policy ” . It built on the previous study and has been expanded to include Ghana and put more emphasis on (i) the analysis of incomes to track the development of the middle class; (ii) in-depth analysis of the nature of demanded products (raw versus processed) and (iii) examining the determinants of food demand in view of long term consumption forecast.
- In absence of surveys on revenues, total expenditure is used as proxy for income. Though expenditures surveys occurred in different periods, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal can be seen as the countries with higher per capita income.
- Increasing incomes in Burkina Faso and Ghana and, in a lesser extent in Senegal. Decreasing incomes in Côte d’Ivoire and Mali. Negative trends in Côte d’Ivoire are due a decade of political unrest. But in Mali, the negative trends may be explained by methodological inconsistencies of the survey: the second survey may have considered less products and therefore underestimated total expenditures.
- Urban income is at least 60 % above rural income (Ghana in the 1990s). Highest inequality was observed in Burkina in the 1990s where urban income is 190 % above rural income. Inequalities decreased sharply in Burkina, fairly in Côte d’Ivoire and in a lesser extent in Senegal; whereas they increased in Ghana and considerably in Mali. This considerable inequality increase in Mali, combined with the decreasing per capita income suggest an increase of poverty incidence
- Average calorie intake meets requirements in Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal whereas they don’ t in Niger and Togo. This means that consumption is more likely to increase in these 2 countries in case of revenue increase.
- Diet poorly diversified: cereals contribute to up to 60% in Sahelian countries and in coastal countries, cereals and roots and tubers account for more than 60%. => Carbohydrates main calorie suppliers. Implications for increasing income is that consumption of other food products like oils, fruits and vegetables and animal products is likely to increase
- It is expected that the share is higher the lower the country mean income is. This seems to be the case expect for Mali where it is suspected that the list of food products covered by the survey in 2006 was not comprehensive so that some food products are considered as non food products; therefore the food expenditures may be underestimated and the non food products overestimated, which means that the calculated share is underestimated. The share is very high for Niger, Burkina Faso, and Togo, over 50%. It is even high for Côte d’Ivoire who has the lowest share (38.6%).
- As expected, the share decreases with increasing incomes. For Burkina Faso, it increases with increasing incomes between Q1 and Q3 before declining. In Senegal, the share is nearly constant for the 4 first quintiles.
- As seen in the diet composition, cereals and roots and tubers expenditures represent 40 to 55% of total expenditures. Except for Burkina Faso, animal products/fish and fruits/vegetables make respectively 22 to 29 % and 10 to 15% of total expenditures except for Burkina Faso.
- Rice budget shares at national level grew between the 2 surveys in all countries except in Senegal. In the last surveys, the share is above 15% in Mali, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal and around 12% in Burkina Faso and Ghana. The share is higher in urban areas but not for Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal, who have already high rice consumption levels in urban areas. In Senegal, the share has declined in urban areas.
- The share at national level is around 4% for Côte d’Ivoire, Mali and Ghana, extremely low in Senegal, less than 1% and 12% in Ghana. Shares are higher for rural areas in Côte d’Ivoire, Mali and Senegal and Ghana in the last survey; whereas they are higher in urban areas in Burkina Faso. The share in urban areas has considerably increased in this country in the last survey at the expense of millet/sorghum as we can see later.
- The shares of millet/sorghum expenditures in total food expenditures have declined to 27% in Burkina Faso, 18 % in Mali and less than 5% in Senegal. In urban areas, they are less than 10% in Burkina Faso and Mali. In Burkina Faso, millet/sorghum represent still more than 35% of total food expenditures in rural areas.
- The potential of wheat production in the Region is weak compared to other crops. In Burkina Faso, Mali and Ghana, the share of wheat and wheat products expenditures in total food expenditures does not exceed 5% at national level though it has expanded in the last surveys in particular in Mali and to a lesser extent in Ghana. In Senegal, the share was 9.3% in the last survey in 2002. The share is in general higher in urban areas but in Senegal, it declined in urban areas while it increased from 4.1 to 7.1% in rural areas. The share in rural areas in Senegal is even higher than the share in urban areas in the other countries.
- The share of roots and tubers expenditures in total food expenditures has declined in recent periods to 16.8% and 15% respectively in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. The share is higher in rural areas in Côte d’Ivoire whereas it is higher in urban areas in Ghana, the latter may be due to the processing facilities of roots and tubers in Ghana. The share is also declining except for urban areas in Côte d’Ivoire; this may be explained with the political crisis in Côte d’Ivoire and the negative revenue trends.
- The share of fruits and vegetables expenditures in total food expenditures at national level is higher for Côte d’Ivoire (15%) and Ghana and Senegal (both around 13%). It is 10% and 6% respectively in Mali and Burkina Faso. It has increased sharply in Côte d’Ivoire fairly in Ghana and to a lesser extent in Senegal. It has declined in Mali and stagnated in Burkina Faso. It is in general higher for urban areas except for Ghana.
- The share of animal products and fish expenditures in total expenditures is highest for Ghana in the latter period (29.2%) followed by Senegal (25.8%), Côte d’Ivoire (22.6%) and Mali (22.2%). It is lowest in Burkina Faso (10%). The share is higher for urban areas except for Ghana. It is increasing in Côte d’Ivoire and Mali in both areas and in urban areas in Ghana and Senegal whereas it is decreasing in Burkina Faso in both areas and in rural areas in Ghana and in Senegal.
- The per capita rice consumption is highest in Senegal (72), Mali (62), Côte d’Ivoire (65) and Benin (53). But in Benin, this may due to the reexportation of imported rice to Nigeria, overestimating the rice consumption. Rice consumption is lower in Burkina Faso, Ghana, Niger and Togo, less than 25kg/capita and year. The trend of rice consumption is upward with a steady increase in Mali from 29 kg in the early 1990s to 62 kg in the late 2000s. One can also see a sharp increase in Benin from 20 in the early 2000s to 53 kg in the late 2000s but again driven by huge reexportations to Nigeria.
- The dependency ratio, which is defined as the ratio of imports to consumption, is very high in particular for Benin, Niger and Senegal. For Niger, it is less problematic since the consumption is low and import quantity and bill are low compared to Senegal. The ratio over 1005 in Benin emphasizes the reexports to Nigeria. Mali has the lowest ratio around 20%, which means that around 80% of rice consumption in Mali is covered by national production. Actually this does not take into account that Mali exports part of its national production in the Region. It is noteworthy that since the rising food prices crises in 2007, the ratio has declined in major importing countries like Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire. Conversely, it has increased in Benin due to the reexportation strategy in this country.
- Millet/sorghum are the basis of diet in Sahelian countries, in particular in Niger and Burkina Faso above 150 kg/capita and year. Per capita consumption is still increasing in Niger whereas it has been slightly declining or stagnating in Burkina Faso and Mali. It has been steadily declining in Senegal and is now below rice per capita consumption. This is mainly due to declining per capita millet/sorghum availability and comparative advantages for rice in term of ease to prepare and better import facilities.
- Wheat and wheat product per capita consumption is particularly high in Senegal (32kg in 2008-2010) and on an upward trend. Per capita consumption in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana are above 15kg though it has sharply declined in Ghana after the food crisis in 2007. In other countries, it rarely exceeds 10%.
- Between the 2 surveys, in changes expenditures in food products can be seen as the results of the relative changes in the expenditures and the level of expenditure in the base period.
- The annual average growth of per capita expenditure of rice was higher in urban areas in Burkina Faso Ghana and Mali, and in rural areas in Senegal and in Côte d’Ivoire in a lesser extent. For maize it was higher in rural areas except in Burkina Faso. For roots and tubers, it was higher in rural areas in Ghana and in urban areas in Côte d’Ivoire.
- The annual average growth of per capita expenditure of millet/sorghum was higher in rural areas whereas for wheat it was higher in urban areas. Given the urbanization, it is expected that rice and wheat expenditures continue to grow proportionally more than the total food expenditures
- Uncertainty experienced recently in world food markets with high food prices and unavailability of stocks recommend to forecast future food demands and analyze at which extent additional demand can be met by regional production. The estimation model used follows the ratio semi-log inverse function (RSLI) applied by King and Byerlee (1978) in Sierra Leone. This model estimates the relationship between household expenditure on a set of commodities and household income, controlling household size. Marginal Budget Shares (MBS) are calculated from coefficients obtained from the regression.
- The total marginal budget share of food demand gives the additional food demand as a result of increase in income. For example, with an increase of USD 100 in average income, the food demand will increase in a range from 22 USD in urban Mali to 66 USD in rural Niger. Total marginal budget share of food demand is expected to be higher the lower the average per capita income. Therefore figures for Mali (with lower per capita income than Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal) seem to be underestimated due probably to incomplete consideration of food products in the survey.
- Marginal budget shares (MBS) of a food product give the extent to which demand of the product increases when average income increases by 100 units. Rice shows the highest MBS, followed by wheat and maize. These are tradable products for which domestic production competes with imports from markets. Non tradable food products show high MBS in Niger and in a lesser extent in Mali (millet/sorghum) and in Ghana (Cassava and Yam).
- MBS are also the highest in rural areas except for Niger, Burkina Faso and for a lesser extent Mali, where millet/sorghum consumption is expected to grow significantly with increasing incomes. The same is expected for Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire and Togo concerning yam and cassava.
- Meat MBS are higher than those of fish and dairy products except for Ghana and Togo where MBS of fish are highest. MBS for meat are higher in Senegal and Mali (over 20%), followed by Niger, Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire. Dairy products MBS are above 5% in Mali and Senegal. Senegal depends heavily on imports for the coverage of dairy products consumption.
- In rural areas, MBS for animal products reach 15% only in Ghana for fish and meat in Senegal. MBS for meat is more than 5% in all countries and Fish MBS are above 5% in 3 other countries. MBS for dairy products are respectively 6 and 4 in Mali and Senegal.
- The cumulated rice consumption between 2010 and 2020 is estimated at 55.4 Mt with 13.7 for Côte d’Ivoire, 13.7 for Mali 9.7 for Senegal and 8.8 for Ghana. The cumulated wheat consumption between 2010 and 2020 is estimated at 18.9 Mt with 5.2 for Ghana, 5.1 for Senegal and 4.2 for Côte d’Ivoire. The cumulated maize consumption between 2010 and 2020 is estimated at 43.5 Mt with 15.9 for Ghana, 8.1 for Mali, 7.9 for Burkina Faso and 5.4 for Côte d’Ivoire and Togo. Projections do not include Senegal. The cumulated millet/sorghum consumption between 2010 and 2020 is estimated at 95.6 Mt with 40.4 for Niger, 25.3 for Burkina Faso and 20.7 for Mali. Projections do not include Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana.
- Projections for yam and cassava include Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo. For Plantain: Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire and for fish: Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Niger, Senegal, and Togo. The cumulated cassava consumption between 2010 and 2020 is estimated at 210.7 Mt with 176.3 for Ghana, 24.6 for Côte d’Ivoire and 9.9 for Togo. The cumulated yam consumption between 2010 and 2020 is estimated at 157 Mt with 92 for Ghana, 57 for Côte d’Ivoire and 8.1 for Togo. The cumulated fish consumption between 2010 and 2020 is estimated at 11.9 Mt with 3.9 for Senegal, 3.4 for Ghana and 2.8 for Côte d’Ivoire.
- The figures for rice and wheat include Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo; for maize: Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Niger, and Togo; for fish: Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Senegal, and Togo; for millet/sorghum: Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Senegal, and Togo; for yam and cassava: Côte d’Ivoire, and Togo; for plantain: Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. Cumulated imports needs between 2010 and 2020 are estimated for the selected countries as follows: rice: 26 Mt (47% of consumption); wheat: 19 Mt (100% of consumption); cassava: 32 Mt (15% of consumption); Yam: 16 Mt (10% of consumption); fish: 6.1 MT (51% of consumption). Cumulated export potentials of 8 Mt, 16Mt and 9 Mt are calculated respectively for Maize, millet/sorghum and plantain.
- Source: Regional Annual Trends and Outlook Report for West Africa (Draft).