Andrew Jardine Universidad de Toronto

1. On the Optimization of Condition-Based Maintenance Decisions Andrew Jardine

2. Where it started - 1982

3. Estimated Hazard Rate at Removal Number Flight Hours Fe Cr Hazard Rate 1 11770 5 6 0.043 2 11660 2 6 0.012 3 8460 12 2.4 0.0071 4* 12630 8 1 0.0014 5 7710 8 0 0.00094 6* 9240 2 3 0.00029 7* 5660 10 1 0.00020 8* 7190 2 2.5 0.000073 * Doubtful Removal Number Flight Hours Fe Cr Hazard Rate 1 11770 5 6 0.043

4. From Data to Hazard

5. From Data to Hazard PHM

6. Optimal Policy: Optimal Hazard Level Hazard Plot Cost Plot Ignore Hazard Replace at failure only minimal cost optimal hazard Age Hazard Hazard Cost/unit time Optimal Hazard level

7. Optimal Decision Chart

8. Condition-Based Maintenance www.dictuctribologia.cl

10. Using EXAKT Decision Chart

11. Summary: Principle of CBM Optimization Age Data Condition- Monitoring Data Maintenance Decision Hazard Model Transition Model Cost and Availability Model Remaining Useful Life Engineering Judgment Supplied by user Software engine Intermediate result Final result

12. A New Development rooted in CBM optimization - 2011 Risk factors and optimization model for breast cancer screening

19. The MORE Consortium Members

20. Thank you Andrew Jardine