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The Future of Open Innovation: Development and Use of Therapies

         End of the Era of Medical Guilds and Alchemy

         Moving beyond the Medical Industrial Complex




                          Stephen Friend MD PhD
                  Sage Bionetworks (Non-Profit Organization)
                         Seattle/ Beijing/ Amsterdam

                    UC Berkeley Hass School of Business
                           Topics in Innovation
                              March 5, 2012
•  New	
  ways	
  of	
  Building	
  Models	
  of	
  Disease	
  

•  What	
  prevents	
  us	
  from	
  building	
  them?	
  

•  What	
  is	
  Sage	
  Bionetworks?	
  

•  Review	
  of	
  Six	
  Pilots	
  

•  So	
  what	
  are	
  the	
  next	
  steps?	
  
What	
  is	
  the	
  problem?	
  

	
  	
  	
  Most	
  approved	
  therapies	
  were	
  assumed	
  to	
  be	
  
            monotherapies	
  for	
  diseases	
  represen4ng	
  homogenous	
  
            popula4ons	
  



 	
  Our	
  exis4ng	
  disease	
  models	
  o9en	
  assume	
  pathway	
  
     knowledge	
  sufficient	
  to	
  infer	
  correct	
  therapies	
  
Familiar but Incomplete
Reality: Overlapping Pathways
The value of appropriate representations/ maps
“Data Intensive” Science- Fourth Scientific Paradigm


       Equipment capable of generating
       massive amounts of data

        IT Interoperability

        Open Information System

       Host evolving computational models
       in a “Compute Space”
WHY	
  NOT	
  USE	
  	
  
      “DATA	
  INTENSIVE”	
  SCIENCE	
  
TO	
  BUILD	
  BETTER	
  DISEASE	
  MAPS?	
  
what will it take to understand disease?




	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  DNA	
  	
  RNA	
  PROTEIN	
  (dark	
  maOer)	
  	
  

MOVING	
  BEYOND	
  ALTERED	
  COMPONENT	
  LISTS	
  
2002 Can one build a “causal” model?
Preliminary Probabalistic Models- Rosetta /Schadt

                                                                              Networks facilitate direct
                                                                           identification of genes that are
                                                                                   causal for disease
                                                                          Evolutionarily tolerated weak spots


                                 Gene symbol   Gene name                   Variance of OFPM    Mouse   Source
                                                                           explained by gene   model
                                                                           expression*
                                 Zfp90         Zinc finger protein 90      68%                 tg      Constructed using BAC transgenics
                                 Gas7          Growth arrest specific 7    68%                 tg      Constructed using BAC transgenics
                                 Gpx3          Glutathione peroxidase 3    61%                 tg      Provided by Prof. Oleg
                                                                                                       Mirochnitchenko (University of
                                                                                                       Medicine and Dentistry at New
                                                                                                       Jersey, NJ) [12]

                                 Lactb         Lactamase beta              52%                 tg      Constructed using BAC transgenics
                                 Me1           Malic enzyme 1              52%                 ko      Naturally occurring KO
                                 Gyk           Glycerol kinase             46%                 ko      Provided by Dr. Katrina Dipple
                                                                                                       (UCLA) [13]
                                 Lpl           Lipoprotein lipase          46%                 ko      Provided by Dr. Ira Goldberg
                                                                                                       (Columbia University, NY) [11]
                                 C3ar1         Complement component        46%                 ko      Purchased from Deltagen, CA
                                               3a receptor 1
                                 Tgfbr2        Transforming growth         39%                 ko      Purchased from Deltagen, CA
Nat Genet (2005) 205:370                       factor beta receptor 2
DIVERSE	
  POWERFUL	
  USE	
  OF	
  MODELS	
  AND	
  NETWORKS	
  
List of Influential Papers in Network Modeling




                                        50 network papers
                                        http://sagebase.org/research/resources.php
(Eric Schadt)
“Data Intensive” Science- Fourth Scientific Paradigm
       Score Card for Medical Sciences

    Equipment capable of generating
    massive amounts of data                A-

    IT Interoperability                    D

    Open Information System                D-

    Host evolving computational models
    in a “Compute Space                    F
We still consider much clinical research as if we were
 hunter gathers - not sharing
                          .
 TENURE   	
     	
  	
  FEUDAL	
  STATES	
  	
     	
  
Clinical/genomic data
 are accessible but minimally usable




Little incentive to annotate and curate
       data for other scientists to use
Mathematical
models of disease
 are not built to be
   reproduced or
versioned by others
Lack of standard forms for future rights and consents
Lack of data standards..
Sage Mission
      Sage Bionetworks is a non-profit organization with a vision to
   create a commons where integrative bionetworks are evolved by
       contributor scientists with a shared vision to accelerate the
                       elimination of human disease

Building Disease Maps                              Data Repository




Commons Pilots                                    Discovery Platform
 Sagebase.org
Sage Bionetworks Collaborators

  Pharma Partners
     Merck, Pfizer, Takeda, Astra Zeneca,
      Amgen, Johnson &Johnson
  Foundations
     Kauffman CHDI, Gates Foundation

  Government
     NIH, LSDF, NCI

  Academic
     Levy (Framingham)
     Rosengren (Lund)
     Krauss (CHORI)

  Federation
     Ideker, Califano, Nolan, Schadt        27
ALZHEIMER’S	
  
           What	
  is	
  this?	
  
Bayesian	
  networks	
  enriched	
  
in	
  inflammaVon	
  genes	
  	
  
correlated	
  with	
  disease	
  
severity	
  in	
  pre-­‐frontal	
  
cortex	
  of	
  250	
  Alzheimer’s	
  
paVents.	
  

     What	
  does	
  it	
  mean?	
  
InflammaVon	
  	
  in	
  AD	
  is	
  an	
  
interacVve	
  mulV-­‐pathway	
  
system.	
  	
  More	
  broadly,	
  
network	
  structure	
  organizes	
  
complex	
  disease	
  effects	
  into	
  
coherent	
  sub-­‐systems	
  and	
  
can	
  prioriVze	
  key	
  genes.	
  

         Are	
  you	
  joking?	
  
Gene	
  validaVon	
  shows	
  
novel	
  key	
  drivers	
  increase	
  
Abeta	
  uptake	
  and	
  decrease	
  
neurite	
  length	
  through	
  an	
  
ROS	
  burst.	
  (highly	
  relevant	
  
to	
  AD	
  pathology)	
  
A	
  mulV-­‐Vssue	
  immune-­‐driven	
  theory	
  of	
  weight	
  loss	
  
                             Hypothalamus	
  
                                                    Lep4n	
  
                                                  signaling	
  

    FaDy	
  acids	
  

                             Macrophage/	
  
                             inflamma4on	
  



         Liver	
                                                  Adipose	
  
                           M1	
  macrophage	
  



  Phagocytosis-­‐	
                                         Phagocytosis-­‐	
  
induced	
  lipolysis	
                                    induced	
  lipolysis	
  
PLATFORM
                                Sage Platform and Infrastructure Builders-
                             ( Academic Biotech and Industry IT Partners...)

                                 PILOTS= PROJECTS FOR COMMONS
                                    Data Sharing Commons Pilots-
                                  (Federation, CCSB, Inspire2Live....)
                         M
       S




                      FOR
    MAP




                 PLAT
NEW




       RULES GOVERN
Why not share clinical /genomic data and model building in the
        ways currently used by the software industry
         (power of tracking workflows and versioning
Leveraging Existing Technologies



Addama




                                  Taverna
               tranSMART
sage bionetworks synapse project
                 Watch What I Do, Not What I Say
sage bionetworks synapse project
           Most of the People You Need to Work with Don’t Work with You
sage bionetworks synapse project
               My Other Computer is Cloudera Amazon Google
Sage Metagenomics Project




                                               Processed Data
                                                    (S3)




•  > 10k genomic and expression standardized datasets indexed in SCR
•  Error detection, normalization in mG
•  Access raw or processed data via download or API in downstream analysis
•  Building towards open, continuous community curation
Sage Metagenomics using Amazon Simple Workflow




          Full case study at http://aws.amazon.com/swf/testimonials/swfsagebio/
Synapse Roadmap
•  Data Repository
•  Projects and security                  Synapse Platform Functionality
•  R integration                             •  Workflow templates
•  Analysis provenance                                                       •  Social networking
                                             •  Publishing figures           •  User-customized
             • Search                        •  Wiki & collaboration tools   dashboards
             • Controlled Vocabularies       •  Integrated management        •  R Studio integration
             • Governance of restricted      of cloud resources              •  Curation tool integration
             data

 Internal Alpha            Public Beta Testing               Synapse 1.0                 Synapse 1.5                  Future

  Q1-2012          Q2-2012           Q3-2012          Q4-2012           Q1-2013         Q2-2013             Q3-2013        Q4-2013


            • TCGA                        •  Predictive modeling                         •  TBD: Integrations with other
            •  METABRIC breast            workflows                                      visualization and analysis
            cancer challenge              •  Automated processing of                     packages
                                          common genomics platforms
•  40+ manually curated clinical studies
•  8000 + GEO / Array Express datasets
•  Clinical, genomic, compound sensitivity
•  Bioconductor and custom R analysis


                                                 Data / Analysis Capabilities
Six	
  Pilots	
  involving	
  Sage	
  Bionetworks	
  


CTCAP	
  
Arch2POCM	
  
The	
  FederaVon	
  
Portable	
  Legal	
  Consent	
  




                                                                     M
                                                   S




                                                                  FOR
                                                MAP
Sage	
  Congress	
  Project	
  




                                                             PLAT
                                            NEW
BRIDGE	
  
                                                   RULES GOVERN
Clinical Trial Comparator Arm
        Partnership (CTCAP)
  Description: Collate, Annotate, Curate and Host Clinical Trial Data
   with Genomic Information from the Comparator Arms of Industry and
   Foundation Sponsored Clinical Trials: Building a Site for Sharing
   Data and Models to evolve better Disease Maps.
  Public-Private Partnership of leading pharmaceutical companies,
   clinical trial groups and researchers.
  Neutral Conveners: Sage Bionetworks and Genetic Alliance
   [nonprofits].
  Initiative to share existing trial data (molecular and clinical) from
   non-proprietary comparator and placebo arms to create powerful
   new tool for drug development.

                       Started Sept 2010
Shared clinical/genomic data sharing and analysis will
   maximize clinical impact and enable discovery

•  Graphic	
  of	
  curated	
  to	
  qced	
  to	
  models	
  
Arch2POCM	
  

Restructuring	
  the	
  PrecompeVVve	
  
    Space	
  for	
  Drug	
  Discovery	
  

   How	
  to	
  potenVally	
  De-­‐Risk	
  	
  	
  
   High-­‐Risk	
  TherapeuVc	
  Areas	
  
Arch2POCM: scale and scope
•  Proposed Goal: Initiate 2 programs. One for Oncology/Epigenetics/
   Immunology. One for Neuroscience/Schizophrenia/Autism. Both
   programs will have 8 drug discovery projects (targets) - ramped up
   over a period of 2 years

    –  It is envisioned that Arch2POCM’s funding partners will select targets
       that are judged as slightly too risky to be pursued at the top of pharma’s
       portfolio, but that have significant scientific potential that could benefit
       from Arch2POCM’s crowdsourcing effort


•  These will be executed over a period of 5 years making a total of 16
   drug discovery projects

    –  Projected pipeline attrition by Year 5 (assuming 12 targets loaded in
       early discovery)
        •  30% will enter Phase 1
        •  20% will deliver Ph 2 POCM data                                            45
Arch2POCM: Highlights
        A PPP To De-Risk Novel Targets That The Pharmaceutical Industry Can
       Then Use To Accelerate The Development of New and Effective Medicines
•     The Arch2POCM will be a charitable Public Private Partnership (PPP) that will file no patents and
      whose scientific plan (including target selection) will be endorsed by its pharmaceutical, private
      and public funders
•     Arch2POCM will de-risk novel targets by developing and using pairs of test compounds (two
      different chemotypes) that interact with the selected targets: the compounds will be developed
      through Phase IIb clinical trials to determine if the selected target plays a role in the biology of
      human disease

•     Arch2POCM will work with and leverage patient groups and clinical CROs to enable patient
      recruitment, and with regulators to design novel studies and to validate novel biomarkers

•     Arch2POCM will make its GMP test compounds available to academic groups and foundations so
      they can use them to perform clinical studies and publish on a multitude of additional indications

•     Arch2POCM will release all reagents and data to the public at pre-defined stages in its drug
      development process. To ensure scientific quality, data and reagents will be released once they
      have been vetted by an independent scientific committee

 •      Arch2POCM will publish all negative POCM data immediately in order to reduce the number of
        ongoing redundant proprietary studies (in pharma, biotech and academia) on an invalidated
        target and thereby
        –     minimize unnecessary patient exposure
        –     provide significant economic savings for the pharmaceutical industry

•     In the rare instance in which a molecule achieves positive POCM, Arch2POCM will ensure that
      the compound has the ability to reach the market by arranging for exclusive access to the
      proprietary IND database for the molecule                                                              46
Arch2POCM: proposed funding strategy
–  $160-200M over five years is projected as necessary to advance
   up to 8 drug discovery projects within each of the two therapeutic
   programs


–  Arch2POCM funding will come from a combination of public
   funding from governments and private sector funding from
   pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies and from private
   philanthropists

–  By investing $1.6 M annually into one or both of Arch2POCM’s
   selected disease areas, partnered pharmaceutical companies:
    1.  obtain a vote on Arch2POCM target selection
    2.  have the opportunity to donate existing compounds from their
        abandoned clinical programs for re-purposing on Arch2POCM’s	
  
        targets	
  
    3.  gain real time data access to Arch2POCM’s 16 drug discovery
        projects
    4.  have the strategic opportunity to expand their overall portfolio   47
Pipeline flow for Arch2POCM
Five Year Objective: Initiate ≈ 8 drug discovery projects with 6 entering in Early Discovery, one entering in
pre-clinical and one entering in PH I

Months   →         0-6         7-12         13-18      19-24       25-30            31-36           37-42          43-48   49-54            55-60


                            Early discovery (2)                      Pre-clinical                         Ph 11.3                    Ph 2

Year #1     Pre-clinical (1)                      Ph 1                               Ph 2
Arch2POCM
Target Load               11
                                             Early discovery (4)                                      Pre-clinical              Ph 1
                      Year #2                        Ph 1 (1)                                               Ph 2
                      Arch2POCM
                      Target Load                              1

   Early discovery (45% PTRS)                                       Arch2POCM Snapshot at Year 5
   Pre-clinical (70% PTRS)                                 Targets	
  Loaded	
                                               8	
  
   Ph I (65% PTRS)                                         Projected	
  INDs	
  filed	
                                       3-­‐4	
  
   Ph II (10% PTRS)                                        Ph	
  1	
  or	
  2	
  Trials	
  In	
  Progress	
                  2	
  
                                                           Projected	
  Complete	
  Ph	
  2	
  (POCM)	
  Data	
              1	
  
 *PTRS = Probability of technical and regulatory success
                                                           Sets	
                                                                                   48
The case for epigenetics/chromatin biology

1.    There are epigenetic oncology drugs on the market (HDACs)

2.    A growing number of links to oncology, notably many genetic links (i.e.
      fusion proteins, somatic mutations)

3.    A pioneer area: More than 400 targets amenable to small molecule
      intervention - most of which only recently shown to be “druggable”, and
      only a few of which are under active investigation

4.    Open access, early-stage science is developing quickly – significant
      collaborative efforts (e.g. SGC, NIH) to generate proteins, structures,
      assays and chemical starting points




                                                                           49
Arch2POCM epigenetics program:
                  Assumptions for launch and completion of Year 1
•    Funding necessary to prosecute 8 epigenetic target-based projects
      o  ≈$85M for five years with $15M available for Year 1
             •     $1.6M from each of 3 pharma partners ($4.8M)
             •     $5M from public funders and $5M from philanthropists
      o  Year 1: load 3 targets with 2 in Early Discovery and 1 in pre-clinical stage of development
      o  Year 2: load 5 targets with at least one late stage clinical asset from a pharma partner

•    Partners
      –  In kind partners
             o  GE Healthcare (imaging): open sharing of its experimental oncology biomarkers
             o  CRUK: through some of its drug discovery and development resources participating in Arch2POCM
      –  Potential academic partner sites
             •     Institutions that have indicated willingness to let their scientists participate without patent filing: UCSF,
                   Massachusetts General Hospital, University of North Carolina, University of Toronto, Oxford University,
                   Karolinska Institute
             •     Costs to fund Arch2POCM academic partners will be de-frayed by crowd-sourcing: each funded
                   investigator will use their own network to amplify what they can do and publish on Arch2POCM targets
      –  Patient groups will enable patient recruitment and reduce costs for clinical studies
      –  FDA and EMEA team of regulators available
             o  Oncology experts available
             o  Can provide in vitro screening assays for toxicities and biomarker development to improve patient
                selection
             o  FDA to help build and host a compliant Arch2POCM data-sharing site

o  Infrastructure that needs to be in place to execute on time
      o    Align vendors and CROs prior to initiation of Arch2POCM projects
      o    IT and patient database management: harmonization of data-entry across participating clinical collaborators
           in place well before start of first Arch2POCM trial
                                                                                                                             50
General benefits of Arch2POCM for drug
               development
1.  Arch2POCM s use of test compounds to de-risk previously unexplored
    biology enables drug developers to initiate proprietary drug
    development starting from an array of unbiased, clinically validated
    targets


2.  Arch2POCM’s crowdsourced research and trials provides the
    pharmaceutical industry with parallel shots on goal: by aligning test
    compounds to most promising unmet medical need



3.  The positive and negative clinical trial data that Arch2POCM and the
    crowd produce and publish will increase clinical success rates (as one
    can pick targets and indications more smartly) and will save the
    pharmaceutical industry money by reducing redundant proprietary
    efforts on failed targets
                                                                            51
Why is Arch2POCM a “smart bet” for Pharma
              investment?
Arch2POCM:	
  an	
  external	
  epigeneVc	
  think	
  tank	
  from	
  which	
  Pharma	
  can	
  load	
  the	
  
most	
  likely	
  to	
  succeed	
  targets	
  as	
  proprietary	
  programs	
  or	
  leverage	
  Arch2POCM	
  
results	
  for	
  its	
  other	
  internal	
  efforts	
  
•    A	
  front	
  row	
  seat	
  on	
  the	
  progression	
  of	
  8	
  epigeneVc	
  targets	
  means	
  that:	
  
      •  Pharma	
  can	
  select	
  the	
  epigeneVc	
  targets	
  that	
  best	
  compliment	
  their	
  internal	
  poriolio	
  and	
  for	
  
         which	
  there	
  is	
  the	
  greatest	
  interest	
  
      •  Pharma	
  can	
  structure	
  Arch2POCM’s	
  projects	
  so	
  that	
  key	
  objecVves	
  line	
  up	
  with	
  internal	
  go/no-­‐
         go	
  decisions	
  
      •  Pharma	
  can	
  use	
  Arch2POCM	
  data	
  to	
  trigger	
  its	
  internal	
  level	
  of	
  investment	
  on	
  a	
  parVcular	
  
         target	
  
      •  Pharma	
  can	
  use	
  Arch2POCM	
  resources	
  to	
  enrich	
  their	
  internal	
  epigeneVcs	
  effort:	
  acVve	
  
         chemotypes,	
  assays,	
  pre-­‐clinical	
  models,	
  biomarkers,	
  geneVc	
  and	
  phenotypic	
  data	
  for	
  paVent	
  
         straVficaVon,	
  relaVonships	
  to	
  epigeneVc	
  experts	
  
•    	
  Pharma	
  can	
  use	
  Arch2POCM’s	
  lead	
  compound	
  chemotypes	
  to:	
  
      •  	
  inform	
  their	
  proprietary	
  medicinal	
  chemistry	
  efforts	
  on	
  the	
  target	
  
      •  	
  idenVfy	
  chemical	
  scaffolds	
  that	
  impact	
  epigeneVc	
  pathways:	
  a	
  proprietary	
  combinaVon	
  
          therapy	
  opportunity	
  
•    	
  Toxicity	
  screening	
  of	
  Arch2POCM	
  compounds	
  with	
  FDA	
  tools	
  can	
  be	
  used	
  to	
  guide	
  
     internal	
  proprietary	
  chemistry	
  efforts	
  in	
  oncology,	
  inflammaVon	
  and	
  beyond	
  	
  
•    Arch2POCM’s	
  crowd	
  of	
  scienVsts	
  and	
  clinicians	
  provides	
  its	
  Pharma	
  partners	
  with	
  
     parallel	
  shots	
  on	
  goal	
  at	
  the	
  best	
  context	
  for	
  Arch2POCM’s	
  compounds/targets	
                            52
How will Arch2POCM provide “line of sight” to new
                 medicines?

  •  Arch2POCM’s Ph II validation of high risk high opportunity targets
     focuses Pharma’s NME efforts
      •  Positive POCM data: De-risked validated targets for Pharma development
      •  Negative POCM data: public release of this data minimizes the amount of time
         and money that Pharma and the industry place on failed targets


  •  Arch2POCM’s clinical candidate compounds provide Pharma with
     multiple paths to new medicines
      •  Arch2POCM compounds that achieve POCM can be advanced into Ph 3 by
         Arch2POCM Members
          •    The purchaser of Arch2POCM’s IND database obtains a significant time advantage
               over competitors to generate Phase III data and proceed to market
          •    NMEs that derive from Arch2POCM will launch with database exclusivity protections:
               5-8 years to garner a return on investment

      •  The crowd’s testing of Arch2POCM compounds may identify alternative/better
         contexts for agonizing/antagonizing the disease biology target
          •    indications
          •    patient stratification
          •    combination therapy options

                                                                                                53
The	
  FederaVon	
  
How can we accelerate the pace of scientific discovery?
           2008	
         2009	
     2010	
     2011	
  




 Ways to move beyond
 “traditional” collaborations?

 Intra-lab vs Inter-lab
 Communication

 Colrain/ Industrial PPPs Academic
 Unions
(Nolan	
  and	
  Haussler)	
  
sage federation:
model of biological age




                                                        Faster Aging
        Predicted	
  Age	
  (liver	
  expression)	
  




                                                                                            Slower Aging

                                                                                     Clinical Association
                                                                                     -  Gender
                                                                                     -  BMI
                                                                                     -  Disease
                                                         Age Differential            Genotype Association
                                                                                     Gene Pathway Expression




                                                            Chronological	
  Age	
  (years)	
  
Reproducible	
  science==shareable	
  science	
  
          Sweave: combines programmatic analysis with narrative

Dynamic generation of statistical reports
     using literate data analysis




        Sweave.Friedrich Leisch. Sweave: Dynamic generation of statistical reports
using literate data analysis. In Wolfgang Härdle and Bernd Rönz,editors, Compstat 2002 –
                  Proceedings in Computational Statistics,pages 575-580.
                   Physica Verlag, Heidelberg, 2002. ISBN 3-7908-1517-9
Federated	
  Aging	
  Project	
  :	
  	
  
       Combining	
  analysis	
  +	
  narraVve	
  	
  
                               =Sweave Vignette
   Sage Lab
                           R code +                   PDF(plots + text + code snippets)
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Califano Lab                               Ideker Lab                               Submitted
                                                                                      Paper




  Shared	
  Data    	
      JIRA:	
  Source	
  code	
  repository	
  &	
  wiki
                                                                             	
  
   Repository  	
  
1)      Data	
  management	
  APIs	
  to	
  load	
  standaridzed	
  objects,	
  e.g.	
  
           R	
  ExpressionSets	
  (MaD	
  Furia):	
  
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  ccleFeatureData	
  <-­‐	
  getEnVty(ccleFeatureDataId)	
  
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  ccleResponseData	
  <-­‐	
  getEnVty(ccleResponseDataId)	
  
   2)	
  	
  	
  tAutomated,	
  standardized	
  workflows	
  for	
  cura4on	
  and	
  QC	
  of	
  
   large-­‐scale	
  datasets	
  (-­‐	
  getEnVty(tcgaFeatureDataId)	
  
   	
  	
  	
  	
   cgaFeatureData	
  < Brig	
  Mecham).	
  
   	
  	
  	
  	
  	
  tcgaResponseData	
  <-­‐	
  getEnVty(tcgaResponseDataId)	
  
                            A.  TCGA:	
  Automated	
  cloud-­‐based	
  processing.	
  
              B. GEO	
  /	
  Array	
  Expression:	
  NormalizaVon	
  workflows,	
  curaVon	
  
              of	
  phenotype	
  using	
  standard	
  ontologies.	
  
              C. AddiVonal	
  studies	
  with	
  geneVc	
  and	
  phenotypic	
  data	
  in	
  
              Sage	
  repository	
  (e.g.	
  CCLE	
  and	
  Sanger	
  cell	
  line	
  datasets)	
  
                Observed Data!=!         Systematic Variation!     +! Random Variation!


                                =!                 +!               +!


   3)  Pluggable	
  API	
  to	
  implement	
  predic4ve	
  modeling	
  
       algorithms.	
  Normalization: Remove the influence of
                             adjustment variables on data...!
   A)  Support	
  for	
  all	
  commonly	
  used	
  machine	
  learning	
  methods	
  
4)  Sta4s4cal	
  performance	
  assessment	
  ew	
  methods)	
  
      (for	
  automated	
  benchmarking	
  against	
  n across	
  models.	
  
  B)  Pluggable	
  custom	
  =! ethods	
  as	
  R	
  classes	
  implemenVng	
  
                                  m
      customTrain()	
  and	
  customPredict()	
  methods.	
  
                                                          +!
custom	
  model	
  1	
   be	
  arbitrarily	
  complex	
  (e.g.	
  pathway	
  and	
  other	
  
           A)  Can	
       custom	
  model	
  2	
                  custom	
  model	
  N	
  
               priors)	
  
 5)  Output	
  of	
  candidate	
  biomarkers	
  aeach	
  eature	
  
           B)  Support	
  for	
  parallelizaVon	
  in	
  for	
   nd	
  f loops.	
  
         evalua4on	
  (e.g.	
  GSEA,	
  pathway	
  analysis)	
  
custom	
  model	
  1	
         custom	
  model	
  2	
                     custom	
  model	
  N	
  



 6)	
  Experimental	
  follow-­‐up	
  on	
  top	
  predic4ons	
  (TBD)	
  
 	
  	
  	
  E.g.	
  for	
  cell	
  lines:	
  medium	
  throughput	
  suppressor	
  /	
  enhancer	
  
 screens	
  of	
  drug	
  sensiVvity	
  for	
  knockdown	
  /	
  overexpression	
  of	
  
 predicted	
  biomarkers.	
  
Portable	
  Legal	
  Consent	
  

    (AcVvaVng	
  PaVents)	
  

       John	
  Wilbanks	
  
weconsent.us	
  
Sage	
  Congress	
  Project	
  
            April	
  20	
  2012	
  

 RealNames	
  Parkinson’s	
  Project	
  
RevisiVng	
  Breast	
  Cancer	
  Prognosis	
  
        Fanconi’s	
  Anemia	
  


 (Responders	
  CompeVVons-­‐	
  IBM-­‐DREAM)	
  
Networking	
  Disease	
  Model	
  Building	
  

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Stephen Friend Haas School of Business 2012-03-05

  • 1. The Future of Open Innovation: Development and Use of Therapies End of the Era of Medical Guilds and Alchemy Moving beyond the Medical Industrial Complex Stephen Friend MD PhD Sage Bionetworks (Non-Profit Organization) Seattle/ Beijing/ Amsterdam UC Berkeley Hass School of Business Topics in Innovation March 5, 2012
  • 2.
  • 3. •  New  ways  of  Building  Models  of  Disease   •  What  prevents  us  from  building  them?   •  What  is  Sage  Bionetworks?   •  Review  of  Six  Pilots   •  So  what  are  the  next  steps?  
  • 4. What  is  the  problem?        Most  approved  therapies  were  assumed  to  be   monotherapies  for  diseases  represen4ng  homogenous   popula4ons    Our  exis4ng  disease  models  o9en  assume  pathway   knowledge  sufficient  to  infer  correct  therapies  
  • 7. The value of appropriate representations/ maps
  • 8.
  • 9. “Data Intensive” Science- Fourth Scientific Paradigm Equipment capable of generating massive amounts of data IT Interoperability Open Information System Host evolving computational models in a “Compute Space”
  • 10.
  • 11. WHY  NOT  USE     “DATA  INTENSIVE”  SCIENCE   TO  BUILD  BETTER  DISEASE  MAPS?  
  • 12. what will it take to understand disease?                    DNA    RNA  PROTEIN  (dark  maOer)     MOVING  BEYOND  ALTERED  COMPONENT  LISTS  
  • 13. 2002 Can one build a “causal” model?
  • 14. Preliminary Probabalistic Models- Rosetta /Schadt Networks facilitate direct identification of genes that are causal for disease Evolutionarily tolerated weak spots Gene symbol Gene name Variance of OFPM Mouse Source explained by gene model expression* Zfp90 Zinc finger protein 90 68% tg Constructed using BAC transgenics Gas7 Growth arrest specific 7 68% tg Constructed using BAC transgenics Gpx3 Glutathione peroxidase 3 61% tg Provided by Prof. Oleg Mirochnitchenko (University of Medicine and Dentistry at New Jersey, NJ) [12] Lactb Lactamase beta 52% tg Constructed using BAC transgenics Me1 Malic enzyme 1 52% ko Naturally occurring KO Gyk Glycerol kinase 46% ko Provided by Dr. Katrina Dipple (UCLA) [13] Lpl Lipoprotein lipase 46% ko Provided by Dr. Ira Goldberg (Columbia University, NY) [11] C3ar1 Complement component 46% ko Purchased from Deltagen, CA 3a receptor 1 Tgfbr2 Transforming growth 39% ko Purchased from Deltagen, CA Nat Genet (2005) 205:370 factor beta receptor 2
  • 15. DIVERSE  POWERFUL  USE  OF  MODELS  AND  NETWORKS  
  • 16. List of Influential Papers in Network Modeling   50 network papers   http://sagebase.org/research/resources.php
  • 18. “Data Intensive” Science- Fourth Scientific Paradigm Score Card for Medical Sciences Equipment capable of generating massive amounts of data A- IT Interoperability D Open Information System D- Host evolving computational models in a “Compute Space F
  • 19. We still consider much clinical research as if we were hunter gathers - not sharing .
  • 20.  TENURE      FEUDAL  STATES      
  • 21. Clinical/genomic data are accessible but minimally usable Little incentive to annotate and curate data for other scientists to use
  • 22. Mathematical models of disease are not built to be reproduced or versioned by others
  • 23. Lack of standard forms for future rights and consents
  • 24. Lack of data standards..
  • 25.
  • 26. Sage Mission Sage Bionetworks is a non-profit organization with a vision to create a commons where integrative bionetworks are evolved by contributor scientists with a shared vision to accelerate the elimination of human disease Building Disease Maps Data Repository Commons Pilots Discovery Platform Sagebase.org
  • 27. Sage Bionetworks Collaborators   Pharma Partners   Merck, Pfizer, Takeda, Astra Zeneca, Amgen, Johnson &Johnson   Foundations   Kauffman CHDI, Gates Foundation   Government   NIH, LSDF, NCI   Academic   Levy (Framingham)   Rosengren (Lund)   Krauss (CHORI)   Federation   Ideker, Califano, Nolan, Schadt 27
  • 28. ALZHEIMER’S   What  is  this?   Bayesian  networks  enriched   in  inflammaVon  genes     correlated  with  disease   severity  in  pre-­‐frontal   cortex  of  250  Alzheimer’s   paVents.   What  does  it  mean?   InflammaVon    in  AD  is  an   interacVve  mulV-­‐pathway   system.    More  broadly,   network  structure  organizes   complex  disease  effects  into   coherent  sub-­‐systems  and   can  prioriVze  key  genes.   Are  you  joking?   Gene  validaVon  shows   novel  key  drivers  increase   Abeta  uptake  and  decrease   neurite  length  through  an   ROS  burst.  (highly  relevant   to  AD  pathology)  
  • 29. A  mulV-­‐Vssue  immune-­‐driven  theory  of  weight  loss   Hypothalamus   Lep4n   signaling   FaDy  acids   Macrophage/   inflamma4on   Liver   Adipose   M1  macrophage   Phagocytosis-­‐   Phagocytosis-­‐   induced  lipolysis   induced  lipolysis  
  • 30. PLATFORM Sage Platform and Infrastructure Builders- ( Academic Biotech and Industry IT Partners...) PILOTS= PROJECTS FOR COMMONS Data Sharing Commons Pilots- (Federation, CCSB, Inspire2Live....) M S FOR MAP PLAT NEW RULES GOVERN
  • 31.
  • 32. Why not share clinical /genomic data and model building in the ways currently used by the software industry (power of tracking workflows and versioning
  • 34. sage bionetworks synapse project Watch What I Do, Not What I Say
  • 35. sage bionetworks synapse project Most of the People You Need to Work with Don’t Work with You
  • 36. sage bionetworks synapse project My Other Computer is Cloudera Amazon Google
  • 37. Sage Metagenomics Project Processed Data (S3) •  > 10k genomic and expression standardized datasets indexed in SCR •  Error detection, normalization in mG •  Access raw or processed data via download or API in downstream analysis •  Building towards open, continuous community curation
  • 38. Sage Metagenomics using Amazon Simple Workflow Full case study at http://aws.amazon.com/swf/testimonials/swfsagebio/
  • 39. Synapse Roadmap •  Data Repository •  Projects and security Synapse Platform Functionality •  R integration •  Workflow templates •  Analysis provenance •  Social networking •  Publishing figures •  User-customized • Search •  Wiki & collaboration tools dashboards • Controlled Vocabularies •  Integrated management •  R Studio integration • Governance of restricted of cloud resources •  Curation tool integration data Internal Alpha Public Beta Testing Synapse 1.0 Synapse 1.5 Future Q1-2012 Q2-2012 Q3-2012 Q4-2012 Q1-2013 Q2-2013 Q3-2013 Q4-2013 • TCGA •  Predictive modeling •  TBD: Integrations with other •  METABRIC breast workflows visualization and analysis cancer challenge •  Automated processing of packages common genomics platforms •  40+ manually curated clinical studies •  8000 + GEO / Array Express datasets •  Clinical, genomic, compound sensitivity •  Bioconductor and custom R analysis Data / Analysis Capabilities
  • 40. Six  Pilots  involving  Sage  Bionetworks   CTCAP   Arch2POCM   The  FederaVon   Portable  Legal  Consent   M S FOR MAP Sage  Congress  Project   PLAT NEW BRIDGE   RULES GOVERN
  • 41. Clinical Trial Comparator Arm Partnership (CTCAP)   Description: Collate, Annotate, Curate and Host Clinical Trial Data with Genomic Information from the Comparator Arms of Industry and Foundation Sponsored Clinical Trials: Building a Site for Sharing Data and Models to evolve better Disease Maps.   Public-Private Partnership of leading pharmaceutical companies, clinical trial groups and researchers.   Neutral Conveners: Sage Bionetworks and Genetic Alliance [nonprofits].   Initiative to share existing trial data (molecular and clinical) from non-proprietary comparator and placebo arms to create powerful new tool for drug development. Started Sept 2010
  • 42. Shared clinical/genomic data sharing and analysis will maximize clinical impact and enable discovery •  Graphic  of  curated  to  qced  to  models  
  • 43. Arch2POCM   Restructuring  the  PrecompeVVve   Space  for  Drug  Discovery   How  to  potenVally  De-­‐Risk       High-­‐Risk  TherapeuVc  Areas  
  • 44.
  • 45. Arch2POCM: scale and scope •  Proposed Goal: Initiate 2 programs. One for Oncology/Epigenetics/ Immunology. One for Neuroscience/Schizophrenia/Autism. Both programs will have 8 drug discovery projects (targets) - ramped up over a period of 2 years –  It is envisioned that Arch2POCM’s funding partners will select targets that are judged as slightly too risky to be pursued at the top of pharma’s portfolio, but that have significant scientific potential that could benefit from Arch2POCM’s crowdsourcing effort •  These will be executed over a period of 5 years making a total of 16 drug discovery projects –  Projected pipeline attrition by Year 5 (assuming 12 targets loaded in early discovery) •  30% will enter Phase 1 •  20% will deliver Ph 2 POCM data 45
  • 46. Arch2POCM: Highlights A PPP To De-Risk Novel Targets That The Pharmaceutical Industry Can Then Use To Accelerate The Development of New and Effective Medicines •  The Arch2POCM will be a charitable Public Private Partnership (PPP) that will file no patents and whose scientific plan (including target selection) will be endorsed by its pharmaceutical, private and public funders •  Arch2POCM will de-risk novel targets by developing and using pairs of test compounds (two different chemotypes) that interact with the selected targets: the compounds will be developed through Phase IIb clinical trials to determine if the selected target plays a role in the biology of human disease •  Arch2POCM will work with and leverage patient groups and clinical CROs to enable patient recruitment, and with regulators to design novel studies and to validate novel biomarkers •  Arch2POCM will make its GMP test compounds available to academic groups and foundations so they can use them to perform clinical studies and publish on a multitude of additional indications •  Arch2POCM will release all reagents and data to the public at pre-defined stages in its drug development process. To ensure scientific quality, data and reagents will be released once they have been vetted by an independent scientific committee •  Arch2POCM will publish all negative POCM data immediately in order to reduce the number of ongoing redundant proprietary studies (in pharma, biotech and academia) on an invalidated target and thereby –  minimize unnecessary patient exposure –  provide significant economic savings for the pharmaceutical industry •  In the rare instance in which a molecule achieves positive POCM, Arch2POCM will ensure that the compound has the ability to reach the market by arranging for exclusive access to the proprietary IND database for the molecule 46
  • 47. Arch2POCM: proposed funding strategy –  $160-200M over five years is projected as necessary to advance up to 8 drug discovery projects within each of the two therapeutic programs –  Arch2POCM funding will come from a combination of public funding from governments and private sector funding from pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies and from private philanthropists –  By investing $1.6 M annually into one or both of Arch2POCM’s selected disease areas, partnered pharmaceutical companies: 1.  obtain a vote on Arch2POCM target selection 2.  have the opportunity to donate existing compounds from their abandoned clinical programs for re-purposing on Arch2POCM’s   targets   3.  gain real time data access to Arch2POCM’s 16 drug discovery projects 4.  have the strategic opportunity to expand their overall portfolio 47
  • 48. Pipeline flow for Arch2POCM Five Year Objective: Initiate ≈ 8 drug discovery projects with 6 entering in Early Discovery, one entering in pre-clinical and one entering in PH I Months → 0-6 7-12 13-18 19-24 25-30 31-36 37-42 43-48 49-54 55-60 Early discovery (2) Pre-clinical Ph 11.3 Ph 2 Year #1 Pre-clinical (1) Ph 1 Ph 2 Arch2POCM Target Load 11 Early discovery (4) Pre-clinical Ph 1 Year #2 Ph 1 (1) Ph 2 Arch2POCM Target Load 1 Early discovery (45% PTRS) Arch2POCM Snapshot at Year 5 Pre-clinical (70% PTRS) Targets  Loaded   8   Ph I (65% PTRS) Projected  INDs  filed   3-­‐4   Ph II (10% PTRS) Ph  1  or  2  Trials  In  Progress   2   Projected  Complete  Ph  2  (POCM)  Data   1   *PTRS = Probability of technical and regulatory success Sets   48
  • 49. The case for epigenetics/chromatin biology 1.  There are epigenetic oncology drugs on the market (HDACs) 2.  A growing number of links to oncology, notably many genetic links (i.e. fusion proteins, somatic mutations) 3.  A pioneer area: More than 400 targets amenable to small molecule intervention - most of which only recently shown to be “druggable”, and only a few of which are under active investigation 4.  Open access, early-stage science is developing quickly – significant collaborative efforts (e.g. SGC, NIH) to generate proteins, structures, assays and chemical starting points 49
  • 50. Arch2POCM epigenetics program: Assumptions for launch and completion of Year 1 •  Funding necessary to prosecute 8 epigenetic target-based projects o  ≈$85M for five years with $15M available for Year 1 •  $1.6M from each of 3 pharma partners ($4.8M) •  $5M from public funders and $5M from philanthropists o  Year 1: load 3 targets with 2 in Early Discovery and 1 in pre-clinical stage of development o  Year 2: load 5 targets with at least one late stage clinical asset from a pharma partner •  Partners –  In kind partners o  GE Healthcare (imaging): open sharing of its experimental oncology biomarkers o  CRUK: through some of its drug discovery and development resources participating in Arch2POCM –  Potential academic partner sites •  Institutions that have indicated willingness to let their scientists participate without patent filing: UCSF, Massachusetts General Hospital, University of North Carolina, University of Toronto, Oxford University, Karolinska Institute •  Costs to fund Arch2POCM academic partners will be de-frayed by crowd-sourcing: each funded investigator will use their own network to amplify what they can do and publish on Arch2POCM targets –  Patient groups will enable patient recruitment and reduce costs for clinical studies –  FDA and EMEA team of regulators available o  Oncology experts available o  Can provide in vitro screening assays for toxicities and biomarker development to improve patient selection o  FDA to help build and host a compliant Arch2POCM data-sharing site o  Infrastructure that needs to be in place to execute on time o  Align vendors and CROs prior to initiation of Arch2POCM projects o  IT and patient database management: harmonization of data-entry across participating clinical collaborators in place well before start of first Arch2POCM trial 50
  • 51. General benefits of Arch2POCM for drug development 1.  Arch2POCM s use of test compounds to de-risk previously unexplored biology enables drug developers to initiate proprietary drug development starting from an array of unbiased, clinically validated targets 2.  Arch2POCM’s crowdsourced research and trials provides the pharmaceutical industry with parallel shots on goal: by aligning test compounds to most promising unmet medical need 3.  The positive and negative clinical trial data that Arch2POCM and the crowd produce and publish will increase clinical success rates (as one can pick targets and indications more smartly) and will save the pharmaceutical industry money by reducing redundant proprietary efforts on failed targets 51
  • 52. Why is Arch2POCM a “smart bet” for Pharma investment? Arch2POCM:  an  external  epigeneVc  think  tank  from  which  Pharma  can  load  the   most  likely  to  succeed  targets  as  proprietary  programs  or  leverage  Arch2POCM   results  for  its  other  internal  efforts   •  A  front  row  seat  on  the  progression  of  8  epigeneVc  targets  means  that:   •  Pharma  can  select  the  epigeneVc  targets  that  best  compliment  their  internal  poriolio  and  for   which  there  is  the  greatest  interest   •  Pharma  can  structure  Arch2POCM’s  projects  so  that  key  objecVves  line  up  with  internal  go/no-­‐ go  decisions   •  Pharma  can  use  Arch2POCM  data  to  trigger  its  internal  level  of  investment  on  a  parVcular   target   •  Pharma  can  use  Arch2POCM  resources  to  enrich  their  internal  epigeneVcs  effort:  acVve   chemotypes,  assays,  pre-­‐clinical  models,  biomarkers,  geneVc  and  phenotypic  data  for  paVent   straVficaVon,  relaVonships  to  epigeneVc  experts   •   Pharma  can  use  Arch2POCM’s  lead  compound  chemotypes  to:   •   inform  their  proprietary  medicinal  chemistry  efforts  on  the  target   •   idenVfy  chemical  scaffolds  that  impact  epigeneVc  pathways:  a  proprietary  combinaVon   therapy  opportunity   •   Toxicity  screening  of  Arch2POCM  compounds  with  FDA  tools  can  be  used  to  guide   internal  proprietary  chemistry  efforts  in  oncology,  inflammaVon  and  beyond     •  Arch2POCM’s  crowd  of  scienVsts  and  clinicians  provides  its  Pharma  partners  with   parallel  shots  on  goal  at  the  best  context  for  Arch2POCM’s  compounds/targets   52
  • 53. How will Arch2POCM provide “line of sight” to new medicines? •  Arch2POCM’s Ph II validation of high risk high opportunity targets focuses Pharma’s NME efforts •  Positive POCM data: De-risked validated targets for Pharma development •  Negative POCM data: public release of this data minimizes the amount of time and money that Pharma and the industry place on failed targets •  Arch2POCM’s clinical candidate compounds provide Pharma with multiple paths to new medicines •  Arch2POCM compounds that achieve POCM can be advanced into Ph 3 by Arch2POCM Members •  The purchaser of Arch2POCM’s IND database obtains a significant time advantage over competitors to generate Phase III data and proceed to market •  NMEs that derive from Arch2POCM will launch with database exclusivity protections: 5-8 years to garner a return on investment •  The crowd’s testing of Arch2POCM compounds may identify alternative/better contexts for agonizing/antagonizing the disease biology target •  indications •  patient stratification •  combination therapy options 53
  • 55. How can we accelerate the pace of scientific discovery? 2008   2009   2010   2011   Ways to move beyond “traditional” collaborations? Intra-lab vs Inter-lab Communication Colrain/ Industrial PPPs Academic Unions
  • 57. sage federation: model of biological age Faster Aging Predicted  Age  (liver  expression)   Slower Aging Clinical Association -  Gender -  BMI -  Disease Age Differential Genotype Association Gene Pathway Expression Chronological  Age  (years)  
  • 58. Reproducible  science==shareable  science   Sweave: combines programmatic analysis with narrative Dynamic generation of statistical reports using literate data analysis Sweave.Friedrich Leisch. Sweave: Dynamic generation of statistical reports using literate data analysis. In Wolfgang Härdle and Bernd Rönz,editors, Compstat 2002 – Proceedings in Computational Statistics,pages 575-580. Physica Verlag, Heidelberg, 2002. ISBN 3-7908-1517-9
  • 59. Federated  Aging  Project  :     Combining  analysis  +  narraVve     =Sweave Vignette Sage Lab R code + PDF(plots + text + code snippets) narrative HTML Data objects Califano Lab Ideker Lab Submitted Paper Shared  Data   JIRA:  Source  code  repository  &  wiki   Repository  
  • 60. 1)  Data  management  APIs  to  load  standaridzed  objects,  e.g.   R  ExpressionSets  (MaD  Furia):            ccleFeatureData  <-­‐  getEnVty(ccleFeatureDataId)            ccleResponseData  <-­‐  getEnVty(ccleResponseDataId)   2)      tAutomated,  standardized  workflows  for  cura4on  and  QC  of   large-­‐scale  datasets  (-­‐  getEnVty(tcgaFeatureDataId)           cgaFeatureData  < Brig  Mecham).            tcgaResponseData  <-­‐  getEnVty(tcgaResponseDataId)   A.  TCGA:  Automated  cloud-­‐based  processing.   B. GEO  /  Array  Expression:  NormalizaVon  workflows,  curaVon   of  phenotype  using  standard  ontologies.   C. AddiVonal  studies  with  geneVc  and  phenotypic  data  in   Sage  repository  (e.g.  CCLE  and  Sanger  cell  line  datasets)   Observed Data!=! Systematic Variation! +! Random Variation! =! +! +! 3)  Pluggable  API  to  implement  predic4ve  modeling   algorithms.  Normalization: Remove the influence of adjustment variables on data...! A)  Support  for  all  commonly  used  machine  learning  methods   4)  Sta4s4cal  performance  assessment  ew  methods)   (for  automated  benchmarking  against  n across  models.   B)  Pluggable  custom  =! ethods  as  R  classes  implemenVng   m customTrain()  and  customPredict()  methods.   +! custom  model  1   be  arbitrarily  complex  (e.g.  pathway  and  other   A)  Can   custom  model  2   custom  model  N   priors)   5)  Output  of  candidate  biomarkers  aeach  eature   B)  Support  for  parallelizaVon  in  for   nd  f loops.   evalua4on  (e.g.  GSEA,  pathway  analysis)   custom  model  1   custom  model  2   custom  model  N   6)  Experimental  follow-­‐up  on  top  predic4ons  (TBD)        E.g.  for  cell  lines:  medium  throughput  suppressor  /  enhancer   screens  of  drug  sensiVvity  for  knockdown  /  overexpression  of   predicted  biomarkers.  
  • 61. Portable  Legal  Consent   (AcVvaVng  PaVents)   John  Wilbanks  
  • 62.
  • 64. Sage  Congress  Project   April  20  2012   RealNames  Parkinson’s  Project   RevisiVng  Breast  Cancer  Prognosis   Fanconi’s  Anemia   (Responders  CompeVVons-­‐  IBM-­‐DREAM)  
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