Overview, scope of work, and preliminary conclusions of ICCT's Global Transportation Roadmap.

2. Pollutants
 The Roadmap is a tool to help policymakers • Local air pollutants (NOx, SOx, CO, PM)
worldwide identify and understand trends in • GHGs (CO2, CH4, N2O)
the transportation sector, assess emission
impacts of different policy options, and Modes
frame plans to effectively reduce emissions • On-road (LDVs, buses, 2 and 3 wheelers, HDTs)
• Rail
of both greenhouse gases (GHGs) and local
• Marine (domestic/international)
air pollutants. • Aviation (domestic/international)
 The core of the Roadmap is a spreadsheet-
Regions
based model developed in Microsoft Excel • United States, EU-27, China, India, Japan, Brazil,
that calculates historical and future well-to- South Korea, Canada, Australia, Mexico, Russia,
wheel (WTW) emissions from the Rest of Latin America, Rest of Europe, Rest of
Asia-Pacific, Middle-East, and Africa.
transportation sector for different policy
scenarios.
Years
• 2000 to 2050 in 5-year increments
 The Roadmap compares the effects of
policies that have been adopted and those
that are under active discussion with the Outputs
• WTW/WTT/TTW emissions
policy potential for the largest vehicle • Energy consumption
markets. • Vehicle stock and sales
Slide 2

3. NON MODE-SPECIFIC MODE-SPECIFIC INPUT PARAMETERS AND OUTPUTS
INPUT PARAMETERS CALCULATIONS
LDV INPUTS LDV CALCULATIONS
BUS INPUTS BUS CALCULATIONS
POLICY LEVERS 2-WHEELERS 2-WHEELERS
INPUTS CALCULATIONS
3-WHEELERS 3-WHEELERS
SOCIO-ECONOMIC MODULE
INPUTS CALCULATIONS
MODEL OUTPUTS
LHDT INPUTS LHDT CALCULATIONS
TURNOVER MODULE SUMMARY OF OUTPUTS
MHDT INPUTS MHDT CALCULATIONS COUNTRY
FUEL INPUTS DASHBOARD
HHDT INPUTS HHDT CALCULATIONS
SYSTEM CONFIGURATION
PASSENGER RAIL
INPUTS / CALCULATIONS
FREIGHT RAIL INPUTS /
CALCULATIONS
AVIATION INPUTS /
CALCULATIONS
WATERBORNE INPUTS /
CALCULATIONS
3

4. LEGEND
SOCIOECONOMIC
INDICATORS INPUTS
CALCULATION
S
OUTPUTS
TRANSPORTATION
ACTIVITY
∞ TURNOVER ALGORITHM
VEHICLE SALES
∞ VEHICLE VEHICLE ∞ VEHICLE
BY
ACTIVITY POPULATION SALES
TECHNOLOGY
NEW FLEET
ENERGY ∞
EFFICIENCY
FUEL
TTW
EMISSION
∞ EMISSION
CONSUMPTION STANDARDS
FACTORS
FUEL BLENDS
WTT
WTT TTW
EMISSION
EMISSIONS EMISSIONS
FACTORS
WTW
EMISSIONS 4

5. IMPROVE
• Vehicle efficiency improvements
• Faster introduction of emission standards
• “Decarbonization” of fuels and electricity
• Low sulfur fuels
AVOID
• Transportation activity reduction through travel
demand management, land-use policies, and
improvements in efficiency of passenger and
freight transportation systems.
SHIFT
• Mode shift to less energy-intensive modes
(passenger and freight).
5

6. 2030 GHG SAVINGS (GtCO2e)
16 NO POLICIES CASE ADOPTED POLICIES
Assumes no policies adopted post Includes existing, enforceable and
2000. Intended only to be used for finalized regulations but assumes
quantification of Adopted Policies. no further changes. 1.7
14
POLICY PIPELINE POLICY POTENTIAL 1.3
Considers all policies under active Includes technically feasible
12
regulatory development or that policies and plausible regulatory
exist as formal, stated policy goals. timelines, without any
consideration of political will.
10
2.5
Gt CO2e
8
6
Adopted policies and those in the
pipeline are not sufficient to revert the
50% REDUCTION FROM 2000 LEVELS
4 trend in increasing transportation
emissions. The Policy Potential more
than doubles the possible GHG savings
2 and results in relatively stable emissions 85% REDUCTION FROM 2000 LEVELS
out to 2030.
-
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
6

7. Transportation policies have the potential to reduce GHG emissions
by 35% in 2030 (from a 2030 baseline assuming no transportation
policies), equivalent to a total reduction of 5.5 GtCO2e.
6.0
Adopted Policies
5.0
Policy Pipeline
Policy Potential
CO2 Savings (Gt CO2e)
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
-
2015 2020 2025 2030
7

8. ADOPTED POLICIES POLICY PIPELINE
The majority of adopted policies in the Policies in the pipeline continue the successful
transportation sector have targeted efficiency approach of vehicle efficiency standards
standards for light and heavy-duty vehicles, and expanding light and heavy-duty standards into
waterborne vessels. These are expected to additional regions and adding aircraft
result in substantial emission savings –1.7 standards. The pipeline also includes
GtCO2e in 2030. investments in public transit and freight rail.
Combined, these policies are expected to result
in savings of 1.3 GtCO2e in 2030.
Breakdown of GHG Savings Breakdown of GHG Savings from
from Adopted Policies in 2030 Policy Pipeline in 2030
Aviation
5%
Waterb
orne Mode
20% Shift
16%
HDV LDV
7% 49%
LDV
73%
HDV
30%
8

9. Economic and demographic trends have some effect – either positive or negative depending on the
region – on the efficiency of the transportation system. However, most of the impact on transportation
efficiency improvement is expected from policies. An example below is provided for the U.S., showing
how transportation policies have the potential to substantially improve how regions move people and
freight.
0.14
2010
0.12 2030 Adopted
2030 Policy Policies
Pipeline
0.10
CO2e/ton-km
0.08 2030 Policy
Potential
2030 No Policies
0.06
0.04
2030 Benchmark
BUBBLE SIZE:
0.02 CO2e Emissions
0.00
- 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 9
CO2e/pas-km

10. 


10