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Wireless Broadband Business Plan

                               WiMAX




Sergio Cruzes

MBA in Project Management and Technological Innovation – FIPE USP

MsC in Electrical Engineering – EESC USP

PMP certified
Table of Contents


Table of Contents .............................................................................................................. 2
1.    INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 5
1.    CONTEXT .................................................................................................................. 7
2.    DEMAND ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 8
  3.1 Fixed Broadband ....................................................................................................... 8
  3.2 Wireless Broadband ................................................................................................ 11
3. BROADBAND REVENUE...................................................................................... 13
4. BROADBAND BARRIERS..................................................................................... 13
5. END USERS ............................................................................................................. 14
6. BROADBAND OFFERINGS .................................................................................. 17
7. WiMAX CONSIDERATIONS ................................................................................. 18
8. MACRO ENVIRONMENT...................................................................................... 19
  8.1 Social and Cultural environment ............................................................................ 19
  8.2 Demographic environment...................................................................................... 20
  8.3 Economic environment .......................................................................................... 20
  8.4 Technological environment .................................................................................. 21
  8.4 Political environment ............................................................................................ 24
9. INTERNAL MICRO ENVIRONMENT .................................................................. 25
10.      KEY SUCCESSES FACTORS ............................................................................. 26
11.      BUSINESS SUMMARY FRAMEWORK ............................................................ 27
12.      BUSINESS CONCEPTION .................................................................................. 29
  12.1 Business Plan Definition ....................................................................................... 29
  12.2 Strategic Planning ................................................................................................. 30
  12.3 Purpose of the Organization: Vision, Mission, Believes & Values, and Objectives
  ....................................................................................................................................... 32
  12.4 Generic Competitive Strategies ............................................................................ 34
  12.4 Marketing Strategy................................................................................................ 35
      12.4.1 Marketing Plan Definition ............................................................................. 35
      12.4.1 Market Segmentation ..................................................................................... 36
      12.4.1 Marketing Mix ............................................................................................... 38
13.      WIMAX NETWORK BUSINESS PLAN ............................................................. 41
  13.1 Input Parameters .................................................................................................. 42
      13.1.1 Morphologic Area .......................................................................................... 42
      13.1.2 Spectrum and Bandwidth ............................................................................... 43
      13.1.3 Coverage Area – Radio Frequency Engineering ........................................... 43
      13.1.4 CAPEX Assumptions..................................................................................... 45
      13.1.5 Subscribers Growing Rate Assumptions ....................................................... 49
      13.1.5 OPEX Assumptions ....................................................................................... 51
  13.2 Output Parameters ............................................................................................... 52
14.      WiMAX NETWORK DEPLOYMENT ................................................................ 53
  14.1 Diamond Model ................................................................................................... 56
14.2 Project Charter ..................................................................................................... 58
  14.3 Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) ..................................................................... 61
  14.4 Planning – Activities estimation ........................................................................... 62
  14.5 Planning – Activities sequence ............................................................................. 64
  14.6 Risks...................................................................................................................... 65
  14.6 Adjustments .......................................................................................................... 67
15.   REFERENCES ...................................................................................................... 68
Acronyms and Abbreviations
2G         Second-generation mobile network technology
3G         Third-generation mobile network technology
AAA        Authorization, Authentication and Accounting
ADSL/DSL   Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line
ARPU       Average Revenue per User
BTS        Base Transceiver Station
BWA        Broadband Wireless Access
CAGR       Compound Average Growth Rate
Capex      Capital Expenditure
CDMA       Code Division Multiple Access
CPE        Customer Premises Equipment
CRM        Customer Relationship Management
DOCSIS     Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification (Cable Modem)
DSL        Digital Subscriber Line
EVDO       Evolution Data Only
FTTH       Fiber to the Home
Gbps       Gigabits per second
GSM        Global System for Mobile Communications
HSPA       High-Speed Packet Access
IBGE       Brazilian Institute of Geographic and Statistics
IEEE       Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
IMS        IP Multimedia Subsystem
IP         Internet Protocol
IPC        Potential Index of Consumption
IPTV       Internet Protocol Television
LTE        Long Term Evolution
MIMO       Multiple-Input Multiple-Output
MMDS       Multichannel, Multipoint Distribution System
OFDM       Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing
OPEX       Expended Costs
PC         Personal Computer
PMP        Price per Megahertz per Pop
QoS        Quality of Service
RAN        Radio Access Network
SLA        Service Level Agreement
VDSL       Very High Bit-rate Digital Subscriber Line
VoIP       Voice over IP
xDSL       any type of DSL
WBS        Work Breakdown Structure
WiMAX      Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access
1. INTRODUCTION

      This work is based on a translation of my MBA monograph whose
certification was issued in April 30th, 2010, by FIPE (Fundação Instituto de
Pesquisas Econômicas). Some recent information was added to this paper while
other information was removed from the original MBA monograph.

      Brazil launched in 2010, its National Broadband Plan. The aim is to grow
broadband at home from 12 million to 40 million by the end of 2014. This means
to provide broadband coverage to 72% of total households of the country.

      Government’s expectation is to reduce the broadband cost from around 5%
average household income to around 0.2% for the most popular plan (speed up
to 512 kbps and download limitation) and to around 0.45% for the plan with
speed between 512 kbps and 784 kbps.

      The different ways to access the internet are changing the people’s
behavior. It can be in the business environment , at home or at any other place.

      Statistics show that the number of internet users in Brazil increased at a
rate greater than 40% a year between 2000 and 2008 (source: Barômetro Cisco
2009).

      As per Ibope Nielsen (Source: Meio & Mensagem, 22/June/2009), the
number of internet users reached 62.3 million people in Brazil in the first quarter
of 2009. However the number of internet accounts is only 15.05 millions (10.4
million for fixed internet and 4.62 million for wireless broadband internet)

      At the same time, Telco’s revenue from circuit switching telephone systems
are decreasing due to mobile systems user’s growth and the emergence of VoIP
systems.

      The need to offer broadband services are introducing great access
technological innovations such as VDSL, FTTH, 3G HSPA , WiMAX and LTE.

      WiMAX is a wireless broadband access technology for the last mile based
on 802.16 standard from the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineering
(IEEE). WiMAX means Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access. This
name was introduced by the WiMAX Forum which is an organization with a goal
to promote, standardize and define the strategy of WiMAX.

      The aim of this work is to capture the most important items that influence
the WiMAX business case at 2,5 GHz band and provide insights to minimize
risks and uncertainties that occur in the deployment of a WiMAX network. It is
shown an example of deployment in São Paulo city, Brazil, containing numbers
of base stations, subscribers, payback period and internal rate of return.

      The study begins with the analysis of the micro-environment providing a
summary containing subscribers forecast for the next years.

      It is also described the macro-environment analysis. On the technological
environment should be noted the delay in the availability of WiMAX-embedded
devices while on the 3G side there are more than 800 hundred devices available
worldwide. It is also commented about the LTE technology which is being
developed by most of the greater telecommunications vendors. On the legal-
political environment, it should be noted the delays on the spectrum auctions
and the power of cellular operators which influence the rules for WIMAX such as
mobility and spectrum usage restriction.

      It is also emphasized the importance of the project planning, scope
characterization and definition, work breakdown structure definition containing
the decomposition of the work to be executed up to the package level, the
activities sequencing, costs involved, risks and response plans, schedule and
critical path.



      Keywords: Broadband ♦ Business Plan ♦ WiMAX ♦ LTE ♦ Project
Management
1. CONTEXT

      The service growing rate of circuit switching telephone systems is starting
to decrease in Brazil and Latin America.

      So, Telcos are investing in fixed broadband access technologies which are
showing high growing rates.

      Also, Cellular operators are also noticing a decreasing on their growing
rates for voice services. At the same it is very difficult to provide differentiated
voice services. The price competition is one main drivers of the voice revenue
stagnation.

      The exhibit 2.1 shows the ARPU for cellular operators in Brazil


                                    Cellular Operators ARPU

              32

              30                           30.1
                      29.3   29.4   29.6

              28                                  27.5   27.3   27.1   27.2
         R$ 26                                                                       ARPU
                                                                              24.8
              24

              22

              20
                   1H07 2H07 3H07 4H07 1H08 2H08 3H08 4H08 1H09

       Exhibit 2.1 – Cellular Operators ARPU

      For most cellular operators in the world, the mobile data revenue has
reached more than 20% of the service revenues.

      The exhibit 2.2 shows the mobile data revenue participation in the total
revenue of the Cellular operators in Brazil.
% of data revenue in the total revenue
                                                               Vivo              Tim     Oi/BrT               Brasil




                                                                                                                                               13.10%
              14.00%




                                                                                                                                                                11.30%
                                                   11.30%




                                                                                                                                            11.20%
                                                                                             10.90%




                                                                                                                   10.90%
                                                                                                                   10.80%
                       10.30%




                                                                                                                                    9.90%
              12.00%




                                                            9.80%




                                                                                            9.70%
                                                                         9.50%




                                                                                                      9.40%
                                           8.70%
                                   8.40%
              10.00%




                                                                                                                            6.80%
                                                                                       6.40%
                                6.30%
               8.00%




                                                                                                                                                        5.60%
                                                                    6%
               6.00%
               4.00%
               2.00%
               0.00%
                            1H08                        2H08                             3H08                          4H08                    1H09



      Exhibit 2.2 - % of data revenue in the total cellular operator revenue



      Based on the above chart there is still a big room to increase the
availability of data services.



   2. DEMAND ANALYSIS

   3.1 Fixed Broadband

      The fixed broadband penetration in Brazil per 100 inhabitants reached
5.16% at the end of 2008 (source: Barômetro Cisco) and 5.47% at the first
quarter of 2009. In 2009, the penetration reached 5.93%.

      These numbers show that the broadband penetration in Brazil is still very
low and it is below the world average (See Exhibit 3.1)
Broadband penetration: Brazil versus World (per 100
                                      inhab.)

        7

        6                                                    6.1

                                            5.1              5.3
        5                                                                    Brazil
                      4.3                   4.1                              World
        4

        3             3

        2
                  2006                2007                2008


      Exhibit 3.1 – Broadband Penetration: Brazil versus World average:
      (Source: Teleco, Barômetro Cisco, Pyramid Research) – 2008

      As per site Teleco (www.teleco.com.br), Brazil is in 67º position regarding
broadband penetration in 2008, behind Mexico (7.1%) and Argentina (8.0 %).

      The Brazilian average Broadband residential penetration is 15.94%. This
number shows that there is enough room for a very sustainable growth.

      In terms of internet users and internet accounts, there is a big gap showing
a potential demand for internet services. Exhibit 3.2 shows this scenario.



                            53.9
            60

            50

            40
                                                            Internet users
            30                                              Fixed broadband access
            20                      10.43

            10

            0
                              1



      Exhibit 3.2 – Internet users versus number of Internet accounts (in million
users – 2008)
In terms of technology, the ADSL is the leader one followed by the Cable
Modem (DOCSIS). Exhibit 3.3 depicts the percentage market share of each
technology (69.55% for ADSL, 26.42% for Cable Modem and 4.02% for other
technologies)


                          Broadband connections (in thousand)

        12000                                           10435
        10000
         8000      7258

         6000                                                       Broadband connections
         4000                  2757
         2000                               420
             0
                   ADSL       Cable     Other (Radio)   Total
                              Modem



      Exhibit 3.3 – Broadband connections per technology



      In 2009, the number of ADSL connections increased 10.55% compared to
2008, reaching 7,705 thousand connections. The growth of Cable connections
was 20.97% reaching 3,132 thousand connections.

      Globally the ADSL is also the market leader penetration for fixed
broadband access with 290 million lines representing 68%, followed by the Cable
modem with 21% and FTTx with 9% (source: Pyramid Research 2008). The
exhibit 3.4 details the fixed technologies participation in the world.
World broadband connections


              70%
              60%
              50%
              40%
              30%                                                    World broadband
                                                                     connections
              20%
              10%
               0%
                     ADSL     Cable      FTTx      Others
                              Modem



        Exhibit 3.4 – World Broadband Connections (source: Pyramid Research
2008)

        It is expected that the FTTx technology will be the leader on the growth rate
on the next years when compared with other technologies.




   3.2 Wireless Broadband


        The wireless broadband access service is offered by all cellular operators
in Brazil. In the first half of 2009, there were 3,022 thousand 3G mobile devices.
At the end of 2009, there were 6,990 thousand 3G mobile devices.

        In the state of São Paulo there were 1,188 thousand wireless broadband
connections, 3G HSPA and CDMA 1xEV-DO (source: Anatel)

        Based on Yankee Group and Ericsson research (2009), in 2012 there will
be 46 million 3G subscribers. Pyramid Research (2008) forecasts that WiMAX
will capture 2% of the total 3G subscribers. So, there will be 920 thousand
WiMAX subscribers by 2012. Assuming that São Paulo state will have the same
subscribers growth rate of Brazil, it is expected that by 2012 there will be 206
thousand WiMAX subscribers in the state.
According to Infonetics Research (2009), Brazil is a great potential market
for WiMAX. It is expected that the number of WiMAX subscribers in the country
move from 184,000 to 8 million in 2013.

                  Wireless Broadband - Brazil (in thousand
                               connections)


        50000                       46000

        40000

        30000                                                      3G
                                                                   WiMAX (Pyramid)
        20000
                                                                   WiMAX (Infonetics)*
        10000                                     8000
                  5300
                      184 184               920
            0
                  Maio 2009             2012/2013*



     Exhibit 3.5 – Wireless broadband forecast based on Pyramid Research
     and Infonetics

     The exhibit 3.6 depicts the estimated number of WiMAX users for the
     Stated of São Paulo based on Brazil’s estimate numbers.


                 Banda Larga Móvel - Estado de São Paulo (mil
                                conexões)
        12.000                                     10.308
        10.000
         8.000                                                                       3G
         6.000                                                                       WiMAX (Pyramid)
         4.000                                                    2.057              WiMAX (Infonetics)*
                      1.188
         2.000                47   47                       206
             0
                       Maio 2009                     2012/2013*


     Exhibit 3.6 – Wireless broadband forecast for São Paulo state (thousand
     of connections)
3. BROADBAND REVENUE

      The wireless broadband will be the main driver of mobile operator revenues
in Latin America in accordance to the Pyramid Research analysis (source:
Teletime magazine, 29/June/2009). This also applies to the fixed wireline
operators. The main drivers are:

         •   Common platforms based on IP protocol

         •   WiMAX technology will force traditional operators to invest heavily
             on 3G and LTE in order to maintain their competitiveness and
             increase revenue

         Telefonica in Brazil has its fixed broadband access called Speedy. This
         service represented in 2008 to 30% of the company revenue.




   4. BROADBAND BARRIERS

      The broadband access price in Brazil is the main barrier for the
popularization of internet.

      One study done by the United Nations in 154 countries appointed Brazil as
one of the countries with the most expensive broadband access. In USA, the
broadband access represents in average 0.4% of the population average salary
while in Brazil it represents 9.6% of the population average salary.

      In accordance to the research done by the Technology Information Usage
in Brazil in 2008, 25% of the households in the South and Southeast has a
microcomputer while 71% of these households has internet access. In North and
Northeast regions, only 7% of the households has internet access.

      The internet and computer usage penetration is very dependent to the
population salary range and education level. The internet usage penetration for a
group of population which has university degree is 83% and for the population
which did not conclude the basic education level is only 7%. Regarding the
internet usage, the main barriers are associated to the lack of ability to deal with
the computer or internet (pointed by 61%), lack of interest (44%) and price
(23%).

      Government launched this year the Broadband National Plan whose idea is
to provide to the population access to the internet at reasonable prices.

      In terms of technology, the plan will consist in the construction of an optical
backbone connecting the main cities of the country. This will probably drive the
construction of access networks based on different technologies. WiMAX may be
one of these technologies.

      Regarding new entrants operators, the main barrier is the need of a huge
amount of capital to build a network and cost to interwork with the internet (in
order to provide internet access to its end users). The price in Brazil is very
expensive compared to the USA prices.



   5. END USERS

         For the end-user media consumer, the open TV main content provider in
Brazil. However it is beginning a trend to search for different forms to access
content , entertainment or information, at devices such as PCs and mobiles.

         The group of users that is constantly searching for information on different
channels other than TV, is composed of persons under 35-year old (Accenture
study published at Converge Magazine in 13/April/2009).

         A study done by Yankee Group and Ericsson shows that the 3G user in
Brazil is predominantly young (Teletime news, 29/July/2009).

         It is estimated that in the state of São Paulo the population between 20
and 30-years old is around 7,250 thousand (source: IBGE and growth
estimations) corresponding to 18.2 % of the total state population.
In accordance to the study done by Pesquisa de Condições de Vida 2006,
65% of young population from São Paulo state has high school completed.
Assuming that the conclusion of high school as a key factor for acquiring an
internet broadband subscription, it can be derived that 4,712 thousand people
are potential consumers of broadband internet. By extrapolating the result for the
total state population (72% of internet users are young people between 20 and
30-years old, 28% is the remaining part of the population that uses internet), it is
estimated that there are 6,545 thousand potential internet users in the state
based on the education level criteria.

      The social classes in Brazil are distributed as per Exhibit 5.1 (source:
Associação Brasileira de Pesquisas, 2009)


                    Family average income per month (Reals)

         16000    14400
         14000
         12000
         10000            8100
          8000
           6000                  4600
           4000                         2300 1400
                                                    950   620   440
           2000
              0
                   A1     A2     B1     B2   C1     C2    D     E


      Exhibit 5.1 – Social classes in Brazil and family income per month

      Based on a report of the Exame magazine (08/April/2009) about the
consumption of the Brazilian families and IBGE information, it can be derived that
the social classes in Brazil are distributed as per Exhibit 5.2.
30,00%
                                                                  25,40%
        25,00%                                           21,80%
                                                20,70%
        20,00%
                                        15,70%
        15,00%
                                                                                Percentagem Brasil
                                   8,90%
        10,00%
                           4,10%
         5,00%                                                      2,60%
                   0,90%
         0,00%
                   A1      A2      B1      B2    C1      C2   D       E



      Exhibit 5.2 – Social classes percentage in Brazil



      In order to better estimate the total potential users based on income salary,
the table 5.1 simplifies the number of classes. The total potential number in Brazil
is 15,789 thousand users. This number can be derived for the state of São Paulo
based on the Wireless broadband rate between Brazil and São State. So, the
potential wireless broadband internet users in São Paulo state is 3,946 thousand
subscribers.




                     Percentage of                    People          Wireless
                     the Brazilian               between 20 -         internet        Potential
         Classes     population                  30 years old         (potential)        users
         A and B                    29.60%                11,248              85%       9,560.8
         C                          42.50%                16,150              30%         4,845

         D and E                    28.00%                10,640              13%       1,383.2
       Table 5.1 – Potential internet users in Brazil based on the income salary
Based on the study of Informa Telecom & Media (2008),               WiMAX will
capture 6% of 3G users until 2014. So:

           •   It is expected 920 thousand WiMAX subscribers in Brazil until 2014

           •   It is expected 237 thousand WiMAX subscribers in the state of São
               Paulo until 2014



      The exhibit 5.3 depicts the estimated growth rate of the WiMAX
subscribers between 2008 and 2014 in Brazil and in the state do São Paulo. It is
expected a CAGR of 30.8%.


                      WiMAX Subscribers Growth


    1000                              920

     800

     600                                                    Brasil
     400                                                    São Paulo*
                                             237
                   184
     200                  47
       0
                   2008               2014



Exhibit 5.3 – Estimated WiMAX subscribers growth – 30.8% CAGR




   6. BROADBAND OFFERINGS

     The cable modem access reaches only 184 cities representing 74 million
people, or 40% of Brazilian population which represents 53% of total Brazilian
consumption in accordance to the IPC/Target.
While the broadband competitiveness is so tough, the end user has few
choices. The leader subscription service is called Speedy (from Telefonica and it
is present only on the state of São Paulo).

      The exhibit 6.1 depicts the main fixed broadband offerings in 2009.


                      Fixed Broadband Operators (in thousand
                                   subscribers)

                       2460
           2500
                                    2120
           2000                                1920
                                                             1762
           1500                                                         1320

           1000

              500                                                                402
                                                                                         80
                0
                    Telefonica      NET        Oi     Brasil Telecom   CTBC     GVT     TVA




      Exhibit 6.1 – Fixed Broadband Operators in 2009


      An      analysis           done     by   IDC      in      July     2008   (published    at
www.puccamp.br/servicos em 06/07/2009), provides the broadband access
prices in Brazil. The average price of minimum throughput (128 Kbps) was US$
30. In Argentina, 512Kbps was US$ 27.05.




   7. WiMAX CONSIDERATIONS

      The WiMAX community is doing a great effort to expand the possibilities
and alternatives of devices and data applications from laptops and PCs, PDAs
and other devices.

      WiMAX Operators around the world point the following key factors of this
technology:
•   Broadband access where it is not possible to reach with xDSL
               technology. The facility to focus the service at regions where there
               is demand allows a better return on investments

           •   New player who intent to provide broadband services in a very
               short deadline

           •   Unblunding restrictions done by traditional operators

           •   Differentiation in comparison with xDSL. WiMAX may be positioned
               as a fixed network, portable, mobile within the same network.

           •   IP architecture

           •   Lower spectrum cost compared to 3G




   8. MACRO ENVIRONMENT

      As per KOTLER (1995, p. 49), the macro environment consists of the
forces that affect the whole micro environment: demographic, economic,
technological, natural, political and cultural.

   8.1 Social and Cultural environment

      The cultural characteristics of the areas to be serviced by a wireless
broadband business are very non-homogeneous. The WiMAX service will not be
focused for specific population profiles . In other countries, the WIMAX has been
deployed to attend the regions that the ADSL cannot provide a quality service.
For an operator like Telefonica, WiMAX could attend users from medium to big
cities that live far away from urban areas. Other option would be to provide an
additional service to the Speedy subscribers, not focusing on a specific social
profile. For a new entrant which would compete with ADSL and 3G, there would
not be segmentation of the area to be serviced. The segmentation could only be
used during the implementation phase.



   8.2 Demographic environment


       The demographic environment is a very important force since it consists
of the population profile in terms of its age, ethnics, immigration, education level,
lifestyle, etc.. As these trends are out of control of the company, it is important to
anticipate the movement of the trends, to develop scenarios and to provide a
constant adjustment on the market strategies.

      The observation of the demographic environment trends allow to develop
geographic, ethnics, income salary and age segmentation strategies.

      The geographic segmentation is extremely important for a WiMAX
deployment project. It allows identifying areas with great growth potential and low
level of competition. It is on these areas that the deployment should start.




   8.3 Economic environment

      The main implications of future changes on the economic environment are
related to the demand. The demand is very sensitive to the variations of the
economic activity and any well defined plan may fail if it ignores the influence of
the economic environment.

      Brazil, which has the fifth greater population and the eighth consumer
market in the world, it is becoming one of the best option for business in the
world. The internal market growth and the continuous class C expansion has
boosted the consumption in Brazil.

      As per magazine Exame (08/April/2009), the Class C spend its income
salary as:
•   21% at commercial establishments (supermarket, drugstores)

         •   11% with transport (bus, subway, gasoline, taxi)

         •   10% with food (restaurant, groceries, snack bars)

         •   8% with entertainment (gifts, sightseeing, internet)

         •   7% with basic services (telephone, light, water, house rent)

     Based on this scenario, it is expected a high demand broadband services
     on the next years.




   8.4 Technological environment

      At highly competitive segments, the technology is a key determinant factor
for the business continuity.    The innovations which aggregate product and
service value affect the end user perception, creating a maximization of the cost
benefit and an increase on the competitive advantage.

      The main deployed technological solutions to offer broadband services in
Brazil are the UMTS with its HSPA platform and the old EVDO technology. Other
mobile technologies that offer wireless data are GPRS and EDGE from GSM
networks and 1xRTT from CDMA networks. MMDS operators also offer wireless
internet (radio connection).

      The mobile broadband HSPA is the dominant technology. If we consider
the UMTS cellular phones and 3G data devices, they represent 96% of 3G
accesses in Brazil (source: Teleco).

      Regard the fixed telephone market, the operators are updating their ADSL
networks with ADSL2, ADSL2+, VDSL and also are beginning to deploy the
FTTH technology.

      The Exhibit 8.1 depicts a performance comparison among different
technologies
Peak Throuput
Access Technology             Mode             Downlink        Reach
WiMAX* 3,5 GHz - 5 MHz                                         <1.0 km
bandwidth FDD                 Wireless Fixed   15 Mbps         (urban area)
WiMAX* 2,5 GHz - 5 MHz        Wireless                         <1.25 km
bandwidth TDD                 mobile           10 Mbps         (urban area)
WiFi (802.11a/b/g)            Mobile           < 54 Mbps       < 0.1 km
ADSL                          Fixed            8 Mbps          3 km
ADSL2                         Fixed            12 Mbps         1.5 km
ADSL2+                        Fixed            24 Mbps         1.5 km
VDSL                          Fixed            50 - 100 Mbps   0.4 km
FTTP (BPON-ATM)               Fixed            622 Mbps        20 km
FTTP (EPON-Ethernet)          Fixed            1.250 Gbps      20 km
FTTP (GPON-Ethernet/GEM)      Fixed            1.244 Gbps      20 km
FTTP (GPON-Ethernet/GEM)      Fixed            2.488 Gbps      20 km
EVDO* rel A - 1.8/1.9 GHz -   Wireless
1.25 MHz bandwidth            mobile           3.1 Mbps        <1.7 km
HSPA* 1.8/1.9 GHz - 5 Mhz     Wireless
bandwidth                     mobile           14.4 Mbps       <1.7 km
HSPA+* 1.8/1.9 GHz - 5 MHz    Wireless
bandwidth                     mobile           28 Mbps         <1.7 km

Exhibit 8.1 – Technology performance comparison among different technologies

* Reach refers to a throughput that is less than the peak value

       It is noticed that in terms of access technology, WiMAX will face strong
competition from 3G technology (HSPA and HSPA+).

       In the latest years the WiMAX technology had the following successes:



          •    ITU accepted WiMAX as the sixth aerial interface for the IMT-200

          •    UQ Communications (sponsored by KDDI operator and Intel)
               granted the 2.5 GHz license in Japan for WiMAX

          •    Intel invests heavily in infra-structure makers in Taiwan

          •    Clearwire starts its operation in USA

          •    Certification equipment is started at 2.5 GHz spectrum

          •    Notebooks with embedded WiMAX are launched

      At the same time:
•   Em junho de 2008, número de usuários HSPA atinge 65 milhões no
             mundo, um aumento de 81% em relação a Dezembro 2007.

         •   In June 2008, HSPA users reach 65 millions in the world, a 81%
             increase compared to December, 2007.

         •   The great success of the iPhone 3G as an strategic mark for the
             mobile industry

         •   NGMN (Next Generation Mobile Networks Alliance) adopts the LTE
             as the preferred technology

         •   At the end of 2008 there was more than 800 HSPA devices (mobile
             phones, PCMCIA cards, USB modem, laptops, etc) available on the
             market

      This proves that the HSPA has a great world market and continues gaining
room and benefiting from the economies of scale.

      Other negative aspect for WiMAX is the requirement of capital intensive
while the HSPA deployments are already done and requires only expansion or
upgrades to accommodate new users.

      One of the crucial factors for the WiMAX market is the availability of end-
users devices. The first devices, the CPEs (table devices and outdoor ones) had
a very restricted market while laptops and USB cards will have a bigger market.
The WiMAX success is directly linked to the availability of devices. This makes
the user visualize value and bring advantage competitiveness to the business.
Until now the device availability is very shy.

      Other competitor for WiMAX is the LTE technology which a technological
fundamental similar to WiMAX. A telco could wait for the LTE consolidation and
use it instead of WiMAX. LTE has been supported and developed by great
vendors of network infrastructure while the majority WiMAX infrastructure are
small companies.
8.4 Political environment

     The    political and legal environment is composed of laws, government
agencies and pressure groups that influence and restrict the actions of the
companies. The political environment provides great restriction over the
organizations and individuals.

     In July 2009, Anatel proposed a smoothly reduction on the TV operators
frequencies in the 2.5 GHz band. The proposal consists in reducing the available
spectrum from 190 MHz to 70 MHz in 2012 and from 70 MHz to 50 MHz in 2015.
To start a WiMAX operation, 50 MHz may be enough. But 50 MHz of spectrum
eliminates any possibility of expansion. It may be possible one or two operators
in the same region with 25 MHz of spectrum without considering the band guard
that may reach 5 MHz. In Portland, USA, Clearwire started its operation with 30
MHz of band and can increase the spectrum usage until 120 MHz (source:
Teletime magazine, August 2009).

     The great movement on this area was the TVA acquisition by Telefonica in
the cities of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Curitiba and Porto Alegre. It is
commented that Telefonica paid between R$ 1 billion and R$ 1.6 billion and that
most part of this value was due to the acquisition of the spectrum which is
currently used by MMDS operation (2.5 GHz range).          Recently Telefonica
acquired Vivo which means that their interest on WiMAX may not exist anymore.

     Anatel intends to use the 2.5GHz spectrum with services such as LTE.

     The 3.5 GHz spectrum range is another band to be used for WiMAX.
There are few operators on this range such as Embratel (whole country license),
Brasil Telecom (license for 12 ANs), Grupo Sinos (AN RS1), Neovia (DirectNet)
in the state of São Paulo, and WKVE (6 ANs in the states of Minas Gerais,
Espírito Santo and Bahia).

     It should also be noticed that there is the lobby from cellular operators
which had already invested billions to obtain their spectrum license. They
argument that a MMDS operator deploying WiMAX would have a non fair
advantage by offering wireless broadband services with WiMAX technology.




   9. INTERNAL MICRO ENVIRONMENT

     The internal micro environment considers the resources, capabilities and
the essential competencies of an organization which although they do not
provide an intrinsic value, they represent value when seen by the possibility of
generation of competitive advantage for the enterprise, providing return on
investment above the average (CECCONELO e AJZENTAL, 2008 p. 114).

     The deployment and operation of a WiMAX network require diverse and
different competencies of human resources and also from the organization. The
competence of an organization represents the summation of the learning of all
groups of abilities both at personal level and organizational level (Hamel
ePrahalad (1995, p.233).

     Basically the competencies required to deploy and operate an WiMAX
network are:

         •     Knowledge and experience with radio-frequency engineering (it
               requires knowledge and experience with propagation, network
               design, antennas, etc). The challenge is to design a network to meet
               day one requirements as well as future requirements

         •     WiMAX knowledge on both access and core sides

         •     Cellular network deployment experience

         •     Experience in site acquisition and site sharing

         •     Technological group to evaluate infra-structure equipment as well as
               device hardware
•   Experience in network operation,     CRM, IP, billing, security and
               services

           •   Marketing experience: coverage area segmentation and priorities,
               traffic estimation and growth prediction, business models, subscriber
               packages positioning, competitors knowledge

      As already commented on this paper, the content is the crucial part of the
wireless broadband business. Users are not only interested on the broadband
pipe. They want the applications and services that the broadband can provide.
This means that the broadband provider needs to do partnerships with content
distributors and also brings to the market the more advanced end-user WiMAX
devices.




   10.         KEY SUCCESSES FACTORS

      The business and competitor knowledge will allow to determine the key
successes factors which are the minimum requirements that are necessary for a
enterprise to compete with possibilities of success.

      Based on literature, it is known that main success factors in the WiMAX
network operation are the availability of CPEs, laptops and smartphones, service
price and the cost of the backbone access to internet.

      Regarding the project deployment, as per COMARCH, the main success
factors are the choice of WiMAX infra-structure provider totally engaged with this
technology. Also, it is very important to minimize the number of additional
providers for IP network, BTS backhaul, data servers, civil infra-structure, site
acquisition. Other important success factors are definition of site priorities;
maximize site sharing options, and a presence of a very skilled deployment team.
11.        BUSINESS SUMMARY FRAMEWORK


     In accordance to CECCONELLO and AJZENTAL (2008, p. 134), it is
important to aggregate all related information that concerns to the business plan
in a table in order to make available a qualitative and quantitative summary about
the aspects that can and cannot interfere directly or not directly in the business
that is being proposed. The elaboration of this frame intends to bring to the table
an integrated view about different existent variables that are pertinent to the
proposed business, pertinent to the definition of the business and to the generic
and marketing strategies. Table 11-1 provides this framework.


      1   Potential Demand
          Fixed broadband access lines should increase from 10.38
          millions to 18.9 millions by 2013 (source: Pyramid Research
          2008)
          The number wireless broadband connections will surpass the
          number of broadband fixed connections by 201, when it wil reach
          28 million connections (source: Pyramid Research 2009)

          The number of 3G subscribers will reach 46 millions in 2012.
          More thant half of these subscribers will use the cellular handset
          to access the internet (source: Yankee Group and Ericsson 2009)
          Infonetics Research (2009) forecasts 8 million WiMAX
          connections in Brazil by 2013 from 184 thousand connections in
          2008. This means a CAGR of 112.64%
          The incorporation of people and families into the consumer
          market


      2   Problems in meeting the demand

          Recent news show that there is a growing demand for broadband
          connections in a pace that the service providers cannot meet.



      3   Not satisfied users
          xDSL services (e.g. Speedy from Telefonica) has presented
          several complaints mostly due to congestion in the network

          3G services need to improve the network quality
4   Strong and weaknesses of the services

          xDSL services (e.g. Speedy from Telefonica) show throughput
          options that 3G services do not support
          The strong aspect of 3G services is the mobility



      5   Technical viability

          Mobility restriction imposed by Anatel is one of the negative
          factors to be considered. However the subscriber can still access
          the internet from anywhere where there is service coverage

          The 50 MHz range of spectrum proposed by Anatel in the 2.5
          GHz band can make not feasible growing plans of the WiMAX.
          This 50 MHz band could be shared between up to two providers



      6   Economic viability

          Growing demand for broadband flags the WiMAX potential


          Few availability of WiMAX handsets in comparison to 3G devices
          can kill the WiMAX technology
          WiMAX will face heavy competitiveness from 3G systems which
          have more thant 800 different access devices in the world
          It is not sure for investment banks what is the differential that the
          WiMAX provides in comparison to the 3G networks
          WiMAX system at 3.5 GHz band will need a greater investment
          than 2.5 GHz systems (3,5 GHz coverage is pretty less than 2.5
          GHz coverage)

          Network deployment requires very intensive capital. Providers
          which already have transmission backhaul and internet backbone
          access, can deploy WiMAX with less capital
Table 11.1 – Framework for the business conception
12.         BUSINESS CONCEPTION

      The goal of this chapter is to provide a base foundation for, given the
opportunities analysis, to structure and develop a strategic proposal for , in the
sequence, to verify its viability.

12.1 Business Plan Definition

      The business plan is a tool in which the entrepreneurs employs it in order
to detail their ideas in a concise way based in assumptions of quality where it is
demonstrated its viability and the probability of the business success.

      In accordance to Chiavenato (2005), the business plan consists of an
anticipated planning in which the entrepreneur, based in a collection of data and
information about a business, try to make it viable

      Business plans are needed at different scenarios. They can be used to
expand a manufacturer plant, to verify the viability in attending a new market, to
manufacture a new product, to offer a new service.

      This study will show a business plan for a new business. This plan has as
the first goal to dissolve doubts for a possible decision maker about the quality of
the plan

      In accordance to CECCONELLO and             AJZENTAL (2008, p. 146), the
challenge of every business plan is to identify precisely the reasons that suggest
its elaboration. The reasons can be understood as the characterization of a
problem motivated by the uncertainties about the viability of the business. The
economic- financial analysis will reflect the verification of the hypothesis and
variables concerned to the problem under study.

      In order to obtain a very trustful and solid economic-financial analysis, it
should be necessary to perform an exploratory research that connects trends
and correlations with the observed facts in the environment of the business.
The proposed business plan will show the viability of deploying a WiMAX
network at 2.5 GHz band. Several researches already commented; indicate an
extraordinary growth of the broadband users for the next years, therefore
showing a great business opportunity.

The proposed business plan can be defined as:

           •   Business: broadband access and content in any place

           •   Function: entertainment, research, games, information

           •   Groups: PC users and smartphones

           •   Technology: wireless




12.2 Strategic Planning

      It is seen that there is a kind of difficulty to define the planning function in
the enterprise world, to define its real magnitude and reach (OLIVEIRA, 2007, p.
3). Steiner (1969, p. 12) defined five dimensions non-reciprocally exclusive and
without very defined borders of the planning:

      • Subject of interest: manufacturing, research, new products, finance,
marketing, installations, human resource, etc.

      • Planning elements: intents, objectives, strategies, politics, programs,
budget, standard, procedures, etc.

      • Time dimension: long-term, medium-term or short-term

      • Business unit: corporate planning, business unit strategy planning, affiliate
planning, functional groups planning, division planning, department planning,
product, services, etc..

      • Characteristic: complex or simple, quantity or quality strategic or tactic
planning, public or confidential, formal or informal, expensive or non expensive
So, the planning is defined as a process based on the five shown
dimensions, done to reach a future scenario in more efficient and effective way,
using optimized efforts and resources from the organization.

      In accordance to SLACK et all, (2002 p. 87), strategy is the global standard
of decisions and actions that position the organization on its environment and
has the mission to make it reaches its objectives of long term run. These
decisions will take place before, during and after the elaboration and deployment
of the plan.

      The planning can be distinguished into three types: strategic, tactic and
operational.

      According to OLIVEIRA, (2007, p. 17), the strategic planning is the
administrative process which provides marketing sustentation in order to
establish the best direction an organization should follow, aiming an optimized
level of interaction with the external factors - non manageable – and acting in an
innovative and differentiate way.

      According to FISCHMANN and ALMEIDA (1991, p. 25), strategic planning
is an administrative technique which based on the organization environment, it
creates the conscious      of the opportunities and threats, strengthens and
weaknesses of the organization for the accomplishment of its mission. Based
on this conscious, it is established the purpose of the direction that the
organization should follow in order to take advantage of the opportunities and
avoid risks.

      According to OLIVEIRA (2007, p. 18), the objective of the tactic planning is
to optimize the results of determined area of the organization. So, it works with
the decomposition of the objectives, strategies and politics that were established
in the strategic planning. It is developed by the intermediate management levels
of the organization.
OLIVEIRA, (2007, p.19) defines operational planning as the formalization
of the methodologies of development and deployment of specific results to be
reached by the functional areas of the organization.

      The subject matter of this work is the supply of wireless broadband
services and contents with an objective of return on investment in seven years.

      The scenario that is expected for the next years (2010 – 2014) is
characterized by a sustainable economic growth (better than 4% a year). The
increase in the power consumption of the population will stimulate the
appearance of new services and increase the dispute among cellular operators,
internet via Cable Modem and ADSL service providers.




12.3 Purpose of the Organization: Vision, Mission, Believes &
Values, and Objectives


      According to CECCONELLO and AJZENTAL, (2008, p. 149), the purpose
of one organization gathers vision, mission, believes & values, and objectives,
which help the arrangement of the organization. These aspects are important in
order for the entrepreneur to build the identity of its business, establishing the
organization climate, the standard of behaviors to be followed, what is really
being pursued on its business.

      According to OLIVEIRA, (2007, p.65), the vision is defined as the limits that
the owners and main executive people can visualize within a certain period of a
longer time and one wider approach. Within this context, the vision provides a
solid outline of the strategic planning to be developed and deployed by the
organization. The vision represents what the organization intends to be.

      According to OLIVEIRA, (2007, p.107), the mission is the reason of being
of the organization.    Therefore, it tries to find what is real business of the
organization, why it exists, what activities the organization will concentrate in the
future.
According to OLIVEIRA, (2007, p.67), the values represent a set of
foundations and fundamental beliefs of an organization, and at the same time
they provide sustentation for all your main decisions. The values should have a
strong interaction with ethical and moral values of the organization.

      According to OLIVEIRA, (2007, p.141), the objective may be defined as a
state, situation or a future result that the executive intends to reach. It relates to
everything that implies in obtaining a final result. Objective is a target with a
defined execution deadline and assigned responsibilities.

      According to OLIVEIRA, (2007, p.141), the objective may be defined as a
state, situation or a future result that the executive intends to reach. It relates to
everything that implies in obtaining a final result. Objective is a target with a
defined execution deadline and assigned responsibilities.

      According to CECCONELLO and                AJZENTAL, (2008, p. 155), the
objectives show a more quantitative approach of the company goals, on the
revenue, market share and profitability sides.

      Four our business plan, there are:

      • Vision: innovate and offer entertainment, information and communication
at any place

      • Mission: provide excellence in content services

      • Main objective: reach 360 thousand subscribers within five years
12.4 Generic Competitive Strategies


       According to OLIVEIRA (2007, p. 181), strategy is defined as a path, or
way, or a defined and appropriate action to reach, preferably in a differentiate
way, the goals, the challenges and established objectives, in a better positioning
of the company in front of its environment.. The strategies may be defined in
accordance with the situation of the company, it may be related to the survival of
the company, growing or development .

       Porter (1996) identified three generic competitive strategies which a firm
can face and tackle the competitive strengths of the industry in which the firm
acts: cost leadership strategy, level of differentiation, and scope of target market
or approach. These strategies are defined below:

       •      Cost Leadership: this strategy aims to obtain a cost structure that
is lower to the firm’s competitors, allowing it to obtain a great revenue volume.
The firms that adopt this strategy need to minimize costs            by controlling
administrative, marketing, distribution, research and development, human
resources costs etc..

       •      Differentiation: the firm distinguishes its products in way that they
are noticed as unique on its industry. The differentiation may be in the offer of
products or services, on the deployed technology, on the delivery system, on the
market process, on the brand, style, performance, post-sale support, etc..

       •      Scope of target market: this strategy consists of concentrating the
efforts in a determined group of customers, in a product line segment or in a
specific market. This strategy is based on the assumption that a firm is different
when it better attends the needs of a specific market, or provide lower costs for
this specific market or both things.

       For the proposed business plan, intends to be:

       •      Cost leader when compared to 3G systems. The differentiation
will appear as a consequence of the business. If a fixed wireline operator deploys
this project, it will be the only company to offer fixed and mobile broadband
access at the same time.




12.4 Marketing Strategy


       The marketing strategy should be elaborated with the aim of reaching the
purposes of the organization and or of the business.

       According to KOTLER & ARMSTRONG (1993, p. 367), the strategic plan
defines the mission and general objectives of the firm. Each business unit should
prepare its functional plans, including the marketing plan. If the business unit
consists of so many product lines, brands and markets, it may be necessary to
develop plans for each of them. The marketing plans may include product, brand
and market plans.




12.4.1 Marketing Plan Definition

       According to CECCONELLO and AJZENTAL (2008, p.161), the marketing
plan integrates the interdependent elements of the marketing such as sales,
product management, customer assistance, advertisement, merchandise, sales
promotion, lobby, public relations, brand and distribution.

       The marketing mix      defines the strategic position of a product in the
market. It includes the four main variables that a firm can administer in order to
implement its market strategy: Product, Place (distribution), Promotion and Price.

       According to CECCONELLO and AJZENTAL (2008, p.161), the marketing
plan should be specific for product line, by market and by region and must be
supported by the market research. The main objectives are to provide the
executive board a concise and complete financial and marketing summary report
containing the forecast result and objectives.
The proposed business plan intends to provide:

      •       Executive summary: the broadband service will attend firstly the
urban areas where there are greatest fixed broadband subscriber density

      •       Current market situation is dominated by a great expansion of 3G
broadband subscribers. 3G system quality is still a issue (EXAME magazine
report, 15/July/2009 p. 91)

      •       As described in the beginning of this work, there will be a great
demand for broadband services on the next years. This is the great opportunity
The threat is the lack of user devices such as smartphones, USB dongles, and
laptops with embedded WiMAX modem.

      •       Be present in the fixed broadband users market, by offering them
wireless broadband access by a small additional amount. The plan is to capture
360 thousand subscribers in five years.




12.4.1 Market Segmentation

      1. Segmentation

          Market segmentation consists of identifiable groups within a market:

          Benefit segmentation consists in dividing a market into groups based
          on the different benefits that consumers seek on a product or service
          (people that seek for low prices, others that seek superior quality, and
          others that seek service quality).

          Demographic segmentation consists in dividing the market into
          groups based on age, sex, education, income, religion, etc..

          Occasion segmentation consists in dividing the market into groups
          according to the occasion when the consumers get the idea, purchase,
          use the product (e.g.: passengers traveling by business, by leisure or
          emergency reasons
Usage rate segmentation means in grouping persons based on their
          usage rate: heavy, medium, light, and nonusers of a product. For
          instance, some people drink one cup of coffee per day (light users)
          while others drink five or more cups per day (heavy users).

          Life style segmentation      is a type of psychographic segmentation
          which consists in grouping persons or diving a market based on
          preferences of their lifestyle (for instance high class people which
          consume imported cigars and use sport cars, people that enjoy outdoor
          life, etc)

          According to KOTLER (2009, p. 45), the market professional can
          concentrate its efforts into one or two segments and which of them
          receiving the appropriate consideration.


     2.        Market Niche

     KOTLER (2009, p. 45) defines niches as a group of small customers which
show more defined characteristics, or a unique combination of needs. By
concentrating in attending a niche provides some advantages, including the
opportunity of knowing each customer in a more personal way, to face less
competitors and sell services and products with a superior margin once the
customers intend to pay more for the fact of having their specific needs attended.



     3.        Local Market

     According to KOTLER (2009, p. 47), the firms may identify smaller
customer    groups     which   share   some   characteristics   and   offer   market
opportunities known as local market. Many companies provide customer
databases which contain information about demography, previous customer
purchase, preferences and other customer characteristics



      Our business plan intends to:
•   Use demographic segmentation: the network rollout will start in the
             high income areas and reach the suburban areas in a later date.




12.4.1 Marketing Mix


     The marketing mix, also know as the 4P’s - product, price, promotion, and
distribution (place) - translates into actions that should be performed in order to
influence the buyer.

     As per CECCONELLO and AJZENTAL (2008, p.163), and                     KOTLER
(2009, p. 126), the 4P’s are described as:

         •   Product: attributes of any good, service, idea, person, institution,
             etc., which potentially has an exchange value. It is featured by
             variety,     quality,   design,   brand,   package,   size,   warranty,
             reimbursement.

         •   Price: attributes that reflect the cost of the product to the consumer,
             as the price itself, payment conditions, acceptance or not of credit
             cards among others. It includes price list, discounts, licenses,
             payment deadline, credit conditions.

         •   Distribution (Place): is everything that relates to the distribution,
             physical location and logistics to make the product arrives to the
             final consumer. It consists of channels, coverage, location, stock,
             transport.

         •   Promotion: is the active communication process of the attributes
             and benefits of a product for the intended target market. It is
             characterized by sales promotion, advertisement, sales force, public
             relations, direct marketing.
KOTLER (2009, p. 127) considers the inclusion of two other P’s that are
very important for the global market: politics and public opinion.

      CECCONELLO and AJZENTAL (2008, p.164) state that when a service is
being offered, three more P’s may be added to the 4P’s:

         •    People: they are the individuals involved in the service delivery
              (how they are trained, how they behave in the service delivery, etc..)

         •    Processes: consist of the activities that the individuals perform to
              provide the service delivery

         •    Physical evidence: it is an element of the marketing mix which
              customers can actually experience or visualize when they use a
              service, and which contributes to the perceived quality of this
              service. It is the place where the service is delivered (airplane,
              doctor’s clinic, etc)

       Our business plan consists of:

          •    Product: wireless broadband and differentiated content

          •    Competitive price when compared to the 3G systems

          •    Establish a process where the service subscription may be
               completed in five minutes

          •    Service will be delivered in any place in São Paulo city where there
               is network coverage



      The table 12.1 presents a summary frame of the business plan conception.
Dimension            Definition
                                Business: Broadband and content access anywhere
                                Function: entertainment, research, games, information
  1        Business Plan
                                Groups: portable computer and smartphones users
                                Technology: wireless (WiMAX)

                              The subject matter of this work is the supply of wireless broadband services
                              and contents with an objective of return on investment in seven years.
                              The scenario that is expected for the next years (2010 – 2014) is
  2        Strategic Planning
                              characterized by a sustainable economic growth (better than 4% a year). The
                              increase in the power consumption of the population will stimulate the
                              appearance of new services and increase the dispute among cellular
                              operators, internet via Cable Modem and ADSL service providers.
                              Vision: innovate and offer entertainment, information and communication at
           Purpose of the     any place
  3
           Organization       Mission: provide excellence in content services
                              Main objective: reach 360 thousand subscribers within five years
                              Cost leader when compared to 3G systems. The differentiation will appear as
           Generic
                              a consequence of the business. If a fixed wireline operator deploys this
  4        Competitive
                              project, it will be the only company to offer fixed and mobile broadband
           Strategies
                              access at the same time
  5        Marketing Strategy
                                Executive summary: the broadband service will attend firstly the urban areas
                                where there are greatest fixed broadband subscriber density
                                Current market situation is dominated by a great expansion of 3G broadband
                                subscribers. 3G system quality is still a issue (EXAME magazine report,
                                15/July/2009 p. 91)
                                As described in the beginning of this work, there will be a great demand for
       1 Marketing Plan
                                broadband services on the next years. This is the great opportunity The
                                threat is the lack of user devices such as smartphones, USB dongles, and
                                laptops with embedded WiMAX modem
                                Be present in the fixed broadband users market, by offering them wireless
                                broadband access by a small additional amount. The plan is to capture 360
                                thousand subscribers in five years
           Market               Use demographic segmentation: the network rollout will start in the high
       2
           Segmentation         income areas and reach the suburban areas in a later date.
                                Product: wireless broadband and differentiated content
                                Competitive price when compared to the 3G systems
                                Establish a process where the service subscription may be completed in five
       3 Marketing Mix
                                minutes
                                Service will be delivered in any place in São Paulo city where there is
                                network coverage


Table 12.1 – Business plan conception summary frame
13.        WIMAX NETWORK BUSINESS PLAN

      The elaboration of the business plan is the first step in order to build a
WiMAX network. It is a critical step whose final results will depend heavily on the
assumptions defined on this phase. Bad assumptions will improperly influence
the next steps of the project.

      The business plan is characterized by several analyzes         involving the
technical and economic areas that will provide profitability and risks estimations
derived from the assumed assumptions.

      The business plan should consider the competitors that are part of the
broadband market and their technologies, initial investment to build the network
and the operation costs of this network. The competitors are the 3G networks
(1xEVDO and mainly the HSPA networks0, WiFi networks, Cable modem
internet service providers, and ADSL internet service providers (Haig Sarkiassian
and Randal Schwartz, 2007), and the LTE networks. Some authors such as
Ethevaldo Siqueira (2008), mention that WiMAX will be an advanced alternative
for the broadband access, while the 3G and WiMAX would complement
themselves.

      The sensibility analysis will determine what are the factors that strongly
affect the return of investiment of the business.

      Several methodologies and tools may be used to estimate the profitability
of the business. The discounted cash flow (DCF) is one of them. This tool can
determine the period of return of the business and also the Net Present Value
(NPV) based on an estimation of the discounted future cash flows in order to give
their present values.

       In the analysis of the WiMAX business, it should be necessary to estimate
the service penetration and its evolution in the next years, the churn rate and the
allowance for doubtful accounts, the revenue evolution and the network operation
costs. The terms CAPEX (capitalized expenses which are the network infra-
structure costs) and OPEX (expended costs which are the operation and
maintenance costs of the network) will used on this analysis.

       The elaboration of this business plan will be based on the methodology
described by Sarkissian and Schwartz (2007).




13.1 Input Parameters

       The first step for the elaboration of the business plan is to obtain all
relevant parameters that concerns to the business.




13.1.1 Morphologic Area

       It includes the morphologic        areas to be attended by the broadband
services: high density urban areas, urban areas, suburban and rural areas. It is
important to obtain detailed information for each morphologic area about number
of inhabitants, houses, companies, terrain profile (flat, mountain, etc) and type of
vegetation (grass, trees, etc).

       For this plan, the intention is to attend the areas described in the table
13.1


                               Total area
         Environment           (km²)
         Dense urban / urban            187.06
         Urban / Suburban               519.62
         Suburban / Rural               504.13
         Total                        1210.81

       Table 13.1 – Profile of the areas to be serviced
13.1.2 Spectrum and Bandwidth


       For a wireless operator, the spectrum ownership is its more valuable
asset. The spectrum cost is one of the more critical items of the business plan. A
well elaborated business plan determines how much a future operator can offer
by the acquisition of the spectrum in order to provide a reasonable return of
investment to its investors.

      For this plan, it is assumed a bandwidth of 30 MHz (each BTS will have 3
channels of 10 MHz) in the 2.5 GHz spectrum band.




13.1.3 Coverage Area – Radio Frequency Engineering

       To determine the coverage area of each base station in order to
dimension the network, it should be necessary to consider the morphologic
environment of each base station and the BTS overlapping factor.

       The tables 13.2 and 13.3 show the generic link budget of a 2.5 GHz
WiMAX network for both downlink and uplink. The propagation model used is the
SUI (Erceg and others, 1999). Columns A, B and C refer to the morphologic
environment that can be referenced to the dense urban/urban, suburban and
suburban/rural.

       The link budget refers to a WiMAX terminal (Smartphone or laptop with
embedded modem) in the cell border with rates of 1.5 Mbps and 512 Kbps for the
downlink and uplink respectively.
Parameters                                  Downlink
                                               A         B       C
Operation Frequency (MHz)                    2500      2500    2500
Frequency reuse                              N =3      N =3    N =3
Mobility                                      Fixo     Fixo    Fixo
BTS power transmitter (dBm)                    36       36      36
Gain: MIMO + array (dB)                         5        5       5
Ganho da antena da ERB (dB)                   17.5     17.5    17.5
Jumper losses (dB)                            0.5       0.5     0.5
Terminal receiver antenna gain (dBi)            0        0       0
Terminal receiver sensitivity (BPSK 1/2)
(dBm)                                        -96.5     -96.5   -96.5
Fading margin (90% area reliability) (dB)       5         5      5
Interference margin (dB)                        3         3      3
Building penetration loss (dB)                 18        15      8
Maximum allowed loss (dB)                    128.5     131.5   138.5
Coverage radius based on SUI model(km)        0.85      1.25    2.1

Table 13.1 – 2.5 GHz WiMAX link budget (downlink)

Parameters                                   Uplink
                                               A        B       C
Terminal transmitter power (dBm)               26       26      26
Terminal antenna gain (dBi)                     5        5       5
Receiver jumper losses of the BTS (dB)        0.5      0.5     0.5
Receiver antenna gain of the BTS (dBi)        17.5     17.5    17.5
Diversity gain (dB)                             2        2       2
Array anrenna gain (dB)                         0        0       0
BTS receiver sensibility (dBm)                -99      -99     -99
Fading margin (90% area reliability) (dB)       5        5       5
Interference margin (dB)                        3        3       3
Building penetration loss (dB)                 18       15       8
Sub-channelization gain (512 kbps na
borda)                                          3        9       9
Maximum allowed loss (dB)                     126      135     142
Coverage radius based on SUI model(km)        0.75     1.55    2.55

Table 13.2 – 2.5 GHz WiMAX link budget (uplink)


     The business plan intends to deploy 300 BTSs in São Paulo city (and
possibly in some areas in the metropolitan area) as:

         •   Dense urban / urban environment: 128 stations

         •   Urban / Suburban environment: 128 stations
•   Suburban / Rural environment: 44 stations

       Considering a consistent level of overlapping among cells, the quantities
described above meet the coverage needs described in table 13.1.




13.1.4 CAPEX Assumptions

      The CAPEX includes the acquisition and construction cost of the stations,
the BTSs cost, the BTSs installation cost, power equipments, transmission
backhaul and Core network (ASN, routers, DHCP servers, AAA servers, billing
servers, NMS and CRM servers).

      1. Sites

         The future WiMAX operator can develop different strategies of site
         sharing in order to install a WiMAX BTS. It may share the station, the
         shelter, antennas, transmission backhaul. Dian and Kettani (2004) show
         several alternatives of resources sharing.

         For this plan, it will be used the strategy described in the table 13.4.


                   Sites            Percentage
                   New sites              30%
                   Existing sites         30%
                   Shared sites           40%
              ‘Table 13.4 – Sites deployment strategy

              The sharing model is the traditional one where it is arranged a
place to install the BTS and the tower is shared to install the antennas.



      2. Spectrum



       The spectrum may be considered as the main asset of the operator.
According to Pyramid Research (2008), the average world price for the
Megahertz per population (PMP) is US$ 0.007. This price tends to be greater in
the emergent markets and less on the developed countries.

       The spectrum price is a very sensitive parameter when determining the
payoff period of a business. A very high price will make not viable the business
plan. According to the Magazine Exame (August 2009, p. 11), it is described that
the purchase of TVA by Telefonica represented to the spanish operator a value
between R$ 1 billion and R$ 1.6 billions. It is estimated that 50% of this value is
due to the spectrum cost (190 MHz in the 2.5 GHz band).

       For this plan, it is assumed a price for the spectrum much greater than the
world average price. It is being assumed a price of R$ 0,20 per Megahertz per
population. Segregating for the São Paulo city, the spectrum price will be R$ 66
millions (30 MHz spectrum band). This price is well in accordance with the price
Telefonica paid to acquire 190 MHz of spectrum from TVA for the cities of São
Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Curitiba and Porto Alegre. These cities represent 21
million inhabitants. However, due to the need of guard band between MMDS and
WiMAX systems, it is being assumed a value of R$ 90 millions for 30 MHz
spectrum in the city of São Paulo.



      3. BTS

       The base station transceiver (BTS) is the network element responsible by
the communication of the WiMAX system with the subscriber devices. The
complete system contains BTSs, RF cables, antennas and a transmission
backhaul system. The backhaul is responsible of transmitting the aggregate
traffic of the subscribers under a BTS towards the network core.

       It is being assumed that the proposed network will require 210 radio point-
to-point links. The remaining backhaul transmission will be provided by fiber
optics whose cost will be assumed as network operation. The table 13.5 shows
the estimated costs of acquisition of BTSs and accessories, antennas, radio links
and installation material.
Unit
                                                price
 Item                                           (R$)         Number        Total price
 BTS, acessories, installation material             95.000        300      28.500.000
 Antennas                                              600       1800       1.080.000
 Digital - point-to-point (70% of the sites)
 including the installation material                68.500        210      14.385.000
 Total                                                                     43.965.000
Table 13.5 – Expected costs for BTSs, antennas and radios acquisition



It will be assumed the following values for the installation costs

        •   BTS: R$ 8.000,00 per unit

        •   Radio: R$ 5.100,00 per link



        4. Civil costs

        The civil part includes all the necessary elements in order to prepare the
site to start the WiMAX BTS installation. It includes site acquisition costs
(purchase or rent), civil infra-structure construction costs and powering.

        The table 13.6 exemplifies the costs where the scenario consists of 30%
new sites, 30% existing sites and 40% shared sites.




              Item                                       Unit price (R$)    Number        Total price
              Metalic post (30% of the sites)                     50.000             90    4.500.000
              Metalic post foundation (30% of the
              sites)                                             80.000              90    7.200.000
              Installation material (civil)                       5.000              90      450.000
              Civil construction                                 15.000             300    4.500.000
              Site acquisition costs                              7.500              90      675.000
              Total                                                                       17.325.000

                 Table 13.6 – Infrastructure costs for new sites
5. Core Network

      The WiMAX core basically consists of the ASN (Access Service Network)
and CSN (Customer Service Network) entities.

      The ASN includes the necessary functions to provide radio access to the
users terminals. The ASN entity consists of the BTSs and the ASN gateway.

      The CSN consists of the AAA (entity responsible for authentication,
authorization and accounting of users traffic), DNS/DHCP (domain name service
and dynamic host configuration protocol. It is an entity for internet access), HA
(Home agent. It provides the PDSN (packet data service node) function and
provides IP connectivity to the users terminals), NMS (Network Management
System. It provides the function of operation administration and maintenance of
the network).



      The WiMAX core network usually also includes a CRM (Customer
relationship management) platform and an IP network in order to interconnect all
platforms of the core network.

      The table 13.7 shows the assumed values used for the Core network.


       Item                                     Unit price (R$)   Number        Total price
       20 SUN V440 platforms (main and
       backup: AAA, Billing, DNS, CRM, NMS)             80.000             20    1.600.000
       CRM Platform (software)                       1.000.000              2    2.000.000
       AAA Platform (Bridgewater or Metasolv)          150.000              2      300.000
       NMS Platform (software)                         500.000              4    2.000.000
       Switch router                                   103.700              4      414.800
       Firewall                                         25.000              2       50.000
       Installation material for the
       interconnection of platforms and
       equipments                                        25.000             1       25.000
       Total                                                                     6.389.800
      Table 13.7 – Core network costs
6. Deployment costs

       The deployment costs refer to the Project management, engineering and
installation costs. It is assumed a total cost of R$ 16 million reals for a 18-month
deployment.




13.1.5 Subscribers Growing Rate Assumptions


     In the beginning of this work, it was elaborated an analysis to dimension the
wireless broadband subscribers base for the next years based on projections
from research institutions, education level of the Brazilian population, wireless
internet users profile and also projections based on the income rate of the
Brazilian population. The more pessimistic result provides a number of 4 million
wireless broadband users in the state of São Paulo.

     The forecast of several research institutes is that the number of WiMAX
subscribers in the world will vary between 2% and 10% of the total 3G broadband
users. This forecast limits the number of WiMAX users. So, the strategy of the
plan is that a fixed operator (e.g. Telefonica in São Paulo), offer an additional
wireless broadband service to their subscribers.

       This plan is limited to the São Paulo city where there is an estimation of a
capacity of up 2 million users of wireless internet in the next years. The goal is to
capture 360 thousand subscribers as depicted below:



   1. Service plan

       The WiMAX technology intends to provide a great price decrease of the
megabit. In addition, it provides a fast network deployment. Also, the presence in
the market of laptops and smartphones with WiMAX embedded modems, all this
will provide the operators a great competitive advantage.
The proposed service plan consists in providing for ADSL users the
possibility of acquiring a wireless broadband service by a small amount of
money.

       The table 13.8 shows the service plan.



                                                   Users          Price
  Class  QoS                   DL          OSR     distribution   (R$)
         Minimum            1500    kbps     25
Business Maximum            5000    kbps     50        5,0%               129
         Minimum             512    kbps     25
Platinum Maximum            1500    kbps     50       10,0%           44.9
         Minimum             256    kbps     25
  Gold   Maximum            1000    kbps     50       35.0%           34.9
  Silver   Best Effort       512    kbps     50       50,0%           24.9
Table 13.8 – Service Plan (QoS: Quality of service, DL: downlink, OSR:
oversubscription rate)



       The OSR parameter informs the amount of the designed overload for the
network, i. e. , how much capacity is exceeded if all users access the network at
same under their designed nominal rate. Typical overload values are between 25
and 40.

       The business plan does not consider additional value services that the
operator may offer to their subscribers such as video and music download,
content distribution such as online news and specific on demand entertainment.

       According to ANDRÉ RIEDEL and others, different ways of incentives may
reduce     the traffic demand at congestion periods and allow to increase the
overbook value of the project subscribers.



      2. Subscribers evolution growth

       The subscribers growth plan forecasts:

           •   54 thousand subscribersin average in the first year
•   144 thousand subscribers in average in the second year

           •   230 thousand subscribersin average in the third year

           •   300 thousand subscribers in average in the fourth year

           •   360 thousand subscribers in average in the fifth year




13.1.5 OPEX Assumptions


     OPEX represents the costs incurred to keep the firm in an operational state.
It includes the network operational costs and planning, transmission backhaul
maintenance, power, site rents, sales, marketing, promotion and customer
support.

     According to some technical papers from WiMAX Forum, “Business Case
Models for Fixed Broadband Wireless Access based on WiMAX Technology and
the 802.16 Standard” (2004) and “WiMAX: The Business Case for Fixed Wireless
Access in Emerging Markets” (2005), it was developed the assumptions for the
network operation costs. These publications also contain the estimation of the
costs for internet connectivity. It is estimated the internet connectivity costs will
vary between R$ 5 million reals and R$ 17 million reals per year. The table 13.9
shows the cost assumptions for the network operation.
Item                                 Assumptions
                                     20% of the revenue in the first year, decreasing
                                     to 11% of the revenue in the fifth year and
Marketing and Sales expenses         beyond
                                     10% of the revenue in the first year, decreasing
                                     to 7% of the revenue in the fifth year and
Network Operation                    beyond

                                     6% of the revenue in the first year, decreasing to
G&A                                  3% of the revenue in the fifth year and beyond
BTS Maintenance                      5% of the BTS CAPEX
NMS Maintenance                      5% of the NMS CAPEX
Radio Maintenance                    5% of the Radio CAPEX
Site rent                            R$ 1800,00 a month in average per site
Provision for bad debts              1% of the revenue
CRM Maintenance                      5% of CRM CAPEX
AAA Maintenance                      5% of AAA CAPEX
Sun platforms maintenance            5% of Sun CAPEX
Internet connectivity access         Between 5 million and 17 million reals per year
Table 13.9 – OPEX assumptions




13.2 Output Parameters


        The main Project output parameters are the period of return of the
investment, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and also the Net Present Value
(NPV) .

        The network deployment will cost R$ 94 million of reals in equipments, sites
and project team. In the year zero, it will be necessary R$ 65.7 million of reals
and R$ 28.3 million of reals in the first year of network operation. Additional R$
18 million reals are necessary in the first year to operate the network in its first
year.

        Based on the above assumptions, it is estimated that the period of return of
the investment will be six years. It is estimated an IRR of 11.56% on the end of
the seventh year of network operation.
The Business plan development of a WiMAX network is a very complex
process that takes so much time. As there are several involved variables, it is
crucial that the project assumptions be consistent and precise.

     The sensibility analysis shows that the more sensible items are spectrum
license price and the internet connectivity price.

     As already commented, this proposed service is to be offered to the fixed
broadband users (e..g. Speedy from Telefonica). So, by a small additional price,
these users could purchase wireless broadband internet with mobility. This
strategy is aligned with the studies done by LANOO and others.




   14.         WiMAX NETWORK DEPLOYMENT


      A Project is a temporary effort undertaken to create a unique product,
service or result (PMBOK 2004). Temporary means that all projects consist of a
very well definite beginning and a definite end.

      The projects are a way of organizing activities that cannot be approached
within the operational limits of an organization.

      The PMBOK (Project Management Body of Knowledge) has become a
very widely used standard by several organizations in the world.

      Together with the Project Management, the Six Sigma methodology has
been deployed by project managers and other professionals in search of greater
efficiency and effectiveness in the deployment of projects and business
management. ISREFANI C. de PAULA and others (2006) compare the approach
of Project Management and Six Sigma methodology, identifying similarities and
differences.

      According to WERKEMA, the Six Sigma methodology is not just another
initiative of project management or a program of process improvement that uses
old concepts in a modern way. The Six Sigma methodology is a continuous
strategy based on data statistics information collected in projects and
organizations. According to ISTEFANI C. de PAULA and others (2006), on the
majority of the projects, the Six Sigma methodology is conducted by teams led
by Black Belts or Green Belts and it is usually deployed with the process
improvement method called DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve,
Control). According to to Eckes (2001), each phase means:

     According to WERKEMA, the Six Sigma methodology is not just another
initiative of project management or a program of process improvement that uses
old concepts in a modern way. The Six Sigma methodology is a continuous
strategy based on data statistics information collected in projects and
organizations According to ISTEFANI C. de PAULA and others (2006), on the
majority of the projects, the Six Sigma methodology is led by teams leadered by
Black Belts or Green Belts and it is usually deployed with the process
improvement method called DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve,
Control). According to to Eckes (2001), each phase means:

     1. Define: definition of improvement goals for the different levels of the
         organization such as improvement of the profitability numbers of
         operation and projects, manufacturing level and improvement, and
         service quality improvement. The problems and the inefficiencies
         should be considered as opportunities of improvement. In this phase, it
         is started the stream value mapping.

     2. Measure: measure the efficiency and effectiveness of the current
         system using reliable metrics that will allow to monitor the progress of
         the system through these metrics. In this phase, it is the stream value
         mapping is finished.

     3. Analyze: use of techniques and statistics tools in order to eliminate the
gap between current performance and desired performance level. It is
determined the root cause of the problems and inefficiencies.
4. Improve: find creative methods based on root of the problems in order
to improve process that will result in way to accomplish the activities in a better
way providing the desired outcomes.

      5. Control: Implement the control in the new system or process and
ensure that the improvements will be sustained in the future and that the desired
outcomes are achieved. The control should be done both at tactic and strategic
level of the organization. ]



      According to PETERKA (2005), the search of the root cause of the
problems, the magnitude and accuracy of the Six Sigma methodology, all this
make the Six Sigma methodology different of the typical project management.
The Six Sigma method contains a Project Charter model very well defined that
describes the project scope, financial goals, benefits, milestones and others. It is
strongly based on data and economies with hard control (DMAIC) that performs
specific measurements, identify specific problems and their root causes, and
provide specific solutions that can be measured. In project management cases,
the organizations usually implement projects without a complete knowledge of
what are the financial gains.

      According to MUNIZ (2008), in the implementation of a project, it should be
taken into account that the main goal is to create value to the final consumer
providing an enough and competitive profitability margin to the allocated project
capital.

      Therefore, besides of the mastering of the process techniques (initiation,
planning, execution, control and administrative closure) and project management
tools, it is strictly necessary to consider the concepts and market analysis
techniques, risks modeling and evaluation, and the return of the project
investment. So, it is important that the project manager consider the investment,
financial and operational decisions. The Six Sigma methodology will provide
performance metrics in a continuous way to the project manager. So, decisions
can be taken in a fast and precise way.
14.1 Diamond Model


      One of the more common myths in the world of project management is that
all projects are similar and that tools and similar methods can be used for all
project activities. This erroneous concept took several projects to succumb to the
failure and created great disappointments to the project managers, stakeholders
and project sponsors.

      The reality is that projects differentiate by themselves in several aspects
and few organizations acknowledge this formally.

      According to SHENHAR (2005), the diamond model consists in four
dimensions which are novelty, complexity, technology and pace. He shows how
to classify the projects and how to adapt the management style for the correct
project.

      The four dimensions for distinction among project types are

      •    Novelty: how new is the product to customers and users

              o Derivative, Platform, Breakthrough

      •    Technology: how much new technology is used

              o Low-tech, Medium-tech, High-tech, Super-tech

      •    Complexity: how complex is the system and its subsystems

              o Assembly, System, Array

      •    Pace: How critical is the time frame

              o Regular, Fast/Competitive, Time-critical, Blitz
Wi Max Business Plan Sergio Cruzes V4
Wi Max Business Plan Sergio Cruzes V4
Wi Max Business Plan Sergio Cruzes V4
Wi Max Business Plan Sergio Cruzes V4
Wi Max Business Plan Sergio Cruzes V4
Wi Max Business Plan Sergio Cruzes V4
Wi Max Business Plan Sergio Cruzes V4
Wi Max Business Plan Sergio Cruzes V4
Wi Max Business Plan Sergio Cruzes V4
Wi Max Business Plan Sergio Cruzes V4
Wi Max Business Plan Sergio Cruzes V4
Wi Max Business Plan Sergio Cruzes V4
Wi Max Business Plan Sergio Cruzes V4
Wi Max Business Plan Sergio Cruzes V4
Wi Max Business Plan Sergio Cruzes V4

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Wi Max Business Plan Sergio Cruzes V4

  • 1. Wireless Broadband Business Plan WiMAX Sergio Cruzes MBA in Project Management and Technological Innovation – FIPE USP MsC in Electrical Engineering – EESC USP PMP certified
  • 2. Table of Contents Table of Contents .............................................................................................................. 2 1. INTRODUCTION ...................................................................................................... 5 1. CONTEXT .................................................................................................................. 7 2. DEMAND ANALYSIS .............................................................................................. 8 3.1 Fixed Broadband ....................................................................................................... 8 3.2 Wireless Broadband ................................................................................................ 11 3. BROADBAND REVENUE...................................................................................... 13 4. BROADBAND BARRIERS..................................................................................... 13 5. END USERS ............................................................................................................. 14 6. BROADBAND OFFERINGS .................................................................................. 17 7. WiMAX CONSIDERATIONS ................................................................................. 18 8. MACRO ENVIRONMENT...................................................................................... 19 8.1 Social and Cultural environment ............................................................................ 19 8.2 Demographic environment...................................................................................... 20 8.3 Economic environment .......................................................................................... 20 8.4 Technological environment .................................................................................. 21 8.4 Political environment ............................................................................................ 24 9. INTERNAL MICRO ENVIRONMENT .................................................................. 25 10. KEY SUCCESSES FACTORS ............................................................................. 26 11. BUSINESS SUMMARY FRAMEWORK ............................................................ 27 12. BUSINESS CONCEPTION .................................................................................. 29 12.1 Business Plan Definition ....................................................................................... 29 12.2 Strategic Planning ................................................................................................. 30 12.3 Purpose of the Organization: Vision, Mission, Believes & Values, and Objectives ....................................................................................................................................... 32 12.4 Generic Competitive Strategies ............................................................................ 34 12.4 Marketing Strategy................................................................................................ 35 12.4.1 Marketing Plan Definition ............................................................................. 35 12.4.1 Market Segmentation ..................................................................................... 36 12.4.1 Marketing Mix ............................................................................................... 38 13. WIMAX NETWORK BUSINESS PLAN ............................................................. 41 13.1 Input Parameters .................................................................................................. 42 13.1.1 Morphologic Area .......................................................................................... 42 13.1.2 Spectrum and Bandwidth ............................................................................... 43 13.1.3 Coverage Area – Radio Frequency Engineering ........................................... 43 13.1.4 CAPEX Assumptions..................................................................................... 45 13.1.5 Subscribers Growing Rate Assumptions ....................................................... 49 13.1.5 OPEX Assumptions ....................................................................................... 51 13.2 Output Parameters ............................................................................................... 52 14. WiMAX NETWORK DEPLOYMENT ................................................................ 53 14.1 Diamond Model ................................................................................................... 56
  • 3. 14.2 Project Charter ..................................................................................................... 58 14.3 Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) ..................................................................... 61 14.4 Planning – Activities estimation ........................................................................... 62 14.5 Planning – Activities sequence ............................................................................. 64 14.6 Risks...................................................................................................................... 65 14.6 Adjustments .......................................................................................................... 67 15. REFERENCES ...................................................................................................... 68
  • 4. Acronyms and Abbreviations 2G Second-generation mobile network technology 3G Third-generation mobile network technology AAA Authorization, Authentication and Accounting ADSL/DSL Asymmetric Digital Subscriber Line ARPU Average Revenue per User BTS Base Transceiver Station BWA Broadband Wireless Access CAGR Compound Average Growth Rate Capex Capital Expenditure CDMA Code Division Multiple Access CPE Customer Premises Equipment CRM Customer Relationship Management DOCSIS Data Over Cable Service Interface Specification (Cable Modem) DSL Digital Subscriber Line EVDO Evolution Data Only FTTH Fiber to the Home Gbps Gigabits per second GSM Global System for Mobile Communications HSPA High-Speed Packet Access IBGE Brazilian Institute of Geographic and Statistics IEEE Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers IMS IP Multimedia Subsystem IP Internet Protocol IPC Potential Index of Consumption IPTV Internet Protocol Television LTE Long Term Evolution MIMO Multiple-Input Multiple-Output MMDS Multichannel, Multipoint Distribution System OFDM Orthogonal Frequency Division Multiplexing OPEX Expended Costs PC Personal Computer PMP Price per Megahertz per Pop QoS Quality of Service RAN Radio Access Network SLA Service Level Agreement VDSL Very High Bit-rate Digital Subscriber Line VoIP Voice over IP xDSL any type of DSL WBS Work Breakdown Structure WiMAX Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access
  • 5. 1. INTRODUCTION This work is based on a translation of my MBA monograph whose certification was issued in April 30th, 2010, by FIPE (Fundação Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas). Some recent information was added to this paper while other information was removed from the original MBA monograph. Brazil launched in 2010, its National Broadband Plan. The aim is to grow broadband at home from 12 million to 40 million by the end of 2014. This means to provide broadband coverage to 72% of total households of the country. Government’s expectation is to reduce the broadband cost from around 5% average household income to around 0.2% for the most popular plan (speed up to 512 kbps and download limitation) and to around 0.45% for the plan with speed between 512 kbps and 784 kbps. The different ways to access the internet are changing the people’s behavior. It can be in the business environment , at home or at any other place. Statistics show that the number of internet users in Brazil increased at a rate greater than 40% a year between 2000 and 2008 (source: Barômetro Cisco 2009). As per Ibope Nielsen (Source: Meio & Mensagem, 22/June/2009), the number of internet users reached 62.3 million people in Brazil in the first quarter of 2009. However the number of internet accounts is only 15.05 millions (10.4 million for fixed internet and 4.62 million for wireless broadband internet) At the same time, Telco’s revenue from circuit switching telephone systems are decreasing due to mobile systems user’s growth and the emergence of VoIP systems. The need to offer broadband services are introducing great access technological innovations such as VDSL, FTTH, 3G HSPA , WiMAX and LTE. WiMAX is a wireless broadband access technology for the last mile based on 802.16 standard from the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineering
  • 6. (IEEE). WiMAX means Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access. This name was introduced by the WiMAX Forum which is an organization with a goal to promote, standardize and define the strategy of WiMAX. The aim of this work is to capture the most important items that influence the WiMAX business case at 2,5 GHz band and provide insights to minimize risks and uncertainties that occur in the deployment of a WiMAX network. It is shown an example of deployment in São Paulo city, Brazil, containing numbers of base stations, subscribers, payback period and internal rate of return. The study begins with the analysis of the micro-environment providing a summary containing subscribers forecast for the next years. It is also described the macro-environment analysis. On the technological environment should be noted the delay in the availability of WiMAX-embedded devices while on the 3G side there are more than 800 hundred devices available worldwide. It is also commented about the LTE technology which is being developed by most of the greater telecommunications vendors. On the legal- political environment, it should be noted the delays on the spectrum auctions and the power of cellular operators which influence the rules for WIMAX such as mobility and spectrum usage restriction. It is also emphasized the importance of the project planning, scope characterization and definition, work breakdown structure definition containing the decomposition of the work to be executed up to the package level, the activities sequencing, costs involved, risks and response plans, schedule and critical path. Keywords: Broadband ♦ Business Plan ♦ WiMAX ♦ LTE ♦ Project Management
  • 7. 1. CONTEXT The service growing rate of circuit switching telephone systems is starting to decrease in Brazil and Latin America. So, Telcos are investing in fixed broadband access technologies which are showing high growing rates. Also, Cellular operators are also noticing a decreasing on their growing rates for voice services. At the same it is very difficult to provide differentiated voice services. The price competition is one main drivers of the voice revenue stagnation. The exhibit 2.1 shows the ARPU for cellular operators in Brazil Cellular Operators ARPU 32 30 30.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 28 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.2 R$ 26 ARPU 24.8 24 22 20 1H07 2H07 3H07 4H07 1H08 2H08 3H08 4H08 1H09 Exhibit 2.1 – Cellular Operators ARPU For most cellular operators in the world, the mobile data revenue has reached more than 20% of the service revenues. The exhibit 2.2 shows the mobile data revenue participation in the total revenue of the Cellular operators in Brazil.
  • 8. % of data revenue in the total revenue Vivo Tim Oi/BrT Brasil 13.10% 14.00% 11.30% 11.30% 11.20% 10.90% 10.90% 10.80% 10.30% 9.90% 12.00% 9.80% 9.70% 9.50% 9.40% 8.70% 8.40% 10.00% 6.80% 6.40% 6.30% 8.00% 5.60% 6% 6.00% 4.00% 2.00% 0.00% 1H08 2H08 3H08 4H08 1H09 Exhibit 2.2 - % of data revenue in the total cellular operator revenue Based on the above chart there is still a big room to increase the availability of data services. 2. DEMAND ANALYSIS 3.1 Fixed Broadband The fixed broadband penetration in Brazil per 100 inhabitants reached 5.16% at the end of 2008 (source: Barômetro Cisco) and 5.47% at the first quarter of 2009. In 2009, the penetration reached 5.93%. These numbers show that the broadband penetration in Brazil is still very low and it is below the world average (See Exhibit 3.1)
  • 9. Broadband penetration: Brazil versus World (per 100 inhab.) 7 6 6.1 5.1 5.3 5 Brazil 4.3 4.1 World 4 3 3 2 2006 2007 2008 Exhibit 3.1 – Broadband Penetration: Brazil versus World average: (Source: Teleco, Barômetro Cisco, Pyramid Research) – 2008 As per site Teleco (www.teleco.com.br), Brazil is in 67º position regarding broadband penetration in 2008, behind Mexico (7.1%) and Argentina (8.0 %). The Brazilian average Broadband residential penetration is 15.94%. This number shows that there is enough room for a very sustainable growth. In terms of internet users and internet accounts, there is a big gap showing a potential demand for internet services. Exhibit 3.2 shows this scenario. 53.9 60 50 40 Internet users 30 Fixed broadband access 20 10.43 10 0 1 Exhibit 3.2 – Internet users versus number of Internet accounts (in million users – 2008)
  • 10. In terms of technology, the ADSL is the leader one followed by the Cable Modem (DOCSIS). Exhibit 3.3 depicts the percentage market share of each technology (69.55% for ADSL, 26.42% for Cable Modem and 4.02% for other technologies) Broadband connections (in thousand) 12000 10435 10000 8000 7258 6000 Broadband connections 4000 2757 2000 420 0 ADSL Cable Other (Radio) Total Modem Exhibit 3.3 – Broadband connections per technology In 2009, the number of ADSL connections increased 10.55% compared to 2008, reaching 7,705 thousand connections. The growth of Cable connections was 20.97% reaching 3,132 thousand connections. Globally the ADSL is also the market leader penetration for fixed broadband access with 290 million lines representing 68%, followed by the Cable modem with 21% and FTTx with 9% (source: Pyramid Research 2008). The exhibit 3.4 details the fixed technologies participation in the world.
  • 11. World broadband connections 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% World broadband connections 20% 10% 0% ADSL Cable FTTx Others Modem Exhibit 3.4 – World Broadband Connections (source: Pyramid Research 2008) It is expected that the FTTx technology will be the leader on the growth rate on the next years when compared with other technologies. 3.2 Wireless Broadband The wireless broadband access service is offered by all cellular operators in Brazil. In the first half of 2009, there were 3,022 thousand 3G mobile devices. At the end of 2009, there were 6,990 thousand 3G mobile devices. In the state of São Paulo there were 1,188 thousand wireless broadband connections, 3G HSPA and CDMA 1xEV-DO (source: Anatel) Based on Yankee Group and Ericsson research (2009), in 2012 there will be 46 million 3G subscribers. Pyramid Research (2008) forecasts that WiMAX will capture 2% of the total 3G subscribers. So, there will be 920 thousand WiMAX subscribers by 2012. Assuming that São Paulo state will have the same subscribers growth rate of Brazil, it is expected that by 2012 there will be 206 thousand WiMAX subscribers in the state.
  • 12. According to Infonetics Research (2009), Brazil is a great potential market for WiMAX. It is expected that the number of WiMAX subscribers in the country move from 184,000 to 8 million in 2013. Wireless Broadband - Brazil (in thousand connections) 50000 46000 40000 30000 3G WiMAX (Pyramid) 20000 WiMAX (Infonetics)* 10000 8000 5300 184 184 920 0 Maio 2009 2012/2013* Exhibit 3.5 – Wireless broadband forecast based on Pyramid Research and Infonetics The exhibit 3.6 depicts the estimated number of WiMAX users for the Stated of São Paulo based on Brazil’s estimate numbers. Banda Larga Móvel - Estado de São Paulo (mil conexões) 12.000 10.308 10.000 8.000 3G 6.000 WiMAX (Pyramid) 4.000 2.057 WiMAX (Infonetics)* 1.188 2.000 47 47 206 0 Maio 2009 2012/2013* Exhibit 3.6 – Wireless broadband forecast for São Paulo state (thousand of connections)
  • 13. 3. BROADBAND REVENUE The wireless broadband will be the main driver of mobile operator revenues in Latin America in accordance to the Pyramid Research analysis (source: Teletime magazine, 29/June/2009). This also applies to the fixed wireline operators. The main drivers are: • Common platforms based on IP protocol • WiMAX technology will force traditional operators to invest heavily on 3G and LTE in order to maintain their competitiveness and increase revenue Telefonica in Brazil has its fixed broadband access called Speedy. This service represented in 2008 to 30% of the company revenue. 4. BROADBAND BARRIERS The broadband access price in Brazil is the main barrier for the popularization of internet. One study done by the United Nations in 154 countries appointed Brazil as one of the countries with the most expensive broadband access. In USA, the broadband access represents in average 0.4% of the population average salary while in Brazil it represents 9.6% of the population average salary. In accordance to the research done by the Technology Information Usage in Brazil in 2008, 25% of the households in the South and Southeast has a microcomputer while 71% of these households has internet access. In North and Northeast regions, only 7% of the households has internet access. The internet and computer usage penetration is very dependent to the population salary range and education level. The internet usage penetration for a group of population which has university degree is 83% and for the population
  • 14. which did not conclude the basic education level is only 7%. Regarding the internet usage, the main barriers are associated to the lack of ability to deal with the computer or internet (pointed by 61%), lack of interest (44%) and price (23%). Government launched this year the Broadband National Plan whose idea is to provide to the population access to the internet at reasonable prices. In terms of technology, the plan will consist in the construction of an optical backbone connecting the main cities of the country. This will probably drive the construction of access networks based on different technologies. WiMAX may be one of these technologies. Regarding new entrants operators, the main barrier is the need of a huge amount of capital to build a network and cost to interwork with the internet (in order to provide internet access to its end users). The price in Brazil is very expensive compared to the USA prices. 5. END USERS For the end-user media consumer, the open TV main content provider in Brazil. However it is beginning a trend to search for different forms to access content , entertainment or information, at devices such as PCs and mobiles. The group of users that is constantly searching for information on different channels other than TV, is composed of persons under 35-year old (Accenture study published at Converge Magazine in 13/April/2009). A study done by Yankee Group and Ericsson shows that the 3G user in Brazil is predominantly young (Teletime news, 29/July/2009). It is estimated that in the state of São Paulo the population between 20 and 30-years old is around 7,250 thousand (source: IBGE and growth estimations) corresponding to 18.2 % of the total state population.
  • 15. In accordance to the study done by Pesquisa de Condições de Vida 2006, 65% of young population from São Paulo state has high school completed. Assuming that the conclusion of high school as a key factor for acquiring an internet broadband subscription, it can be derived that 4,712 thousand people are potential consumers of broadband internet. By extrapolating the result for the total state population (72% of internet users are young people between 20 and 30-years old, 28% is the remaining part of the population that uses internet), it is estimated that there are 6,545 thousand potential internet users in the state based on the education level criteria. The social classes in Brazil are distributed as per Exhibit 5.1 (source: Associação Brasileira de Pesquisas, 2009) Family average income per month (Reals) 16000 14400 14000 12000 10000 8100 8000 6000 4600 4000 2300 1400 950 620 440 2000 0 A1 A2 B1 B2 C1 C2 D E Exhibit 5.1 – Social classes in Brazil and family income per month Based on a report of the Exame magazine (08/April/2009) about the consumption of the Brazilian families and IBGE information, it can be derived that the social classes in Brazil are distributed as per Exhibit 5.2.
  • 16. 30,00% 25,40% 25,00% 21,80% 20,70% 20,00% 15,70% 15,00% Percentagem Brasil 8,90% 10,00% 4,10% 5,00% 2,60% 0,90% 0,00% A1 A2 B1 B2 C1 C2 D E Exhibit 5.2 – Social classes percentage in Brazil In order to better estimate the total potential users based on income salary, the table 5.1 simplifies the number of classes. The total potential number in Brazil is 15,789 thousand users. This number can be derived for the state of São Paulo based on the Wireless broadband rate between Brazil and São State. So, the potential wireless broadband internet users in São Paulo state is 3,946 thousand subscribers. Percentage of People Wireless the Brazilian between 20 - internet Potential Classes population 30 years old (potential) users A and B 29.60% 11,248 85% 9,560.8 C 42.50% 16,150 30% 4,845 D and E 28.00% 10,640 13% 1,383.2 Table 5.1 – Potential internet users in Brazil based on the income salary
  • 17. Based on the study of Informa Telecom & Media (2008), WiMAX will capture 6% of 3G users until 2014. So: • It is expected 920 thousand WiMAX subscribers in Brazil until 2014 • It is expected 237 thousand WiMAX subscribers in the state of São Paulo until 2014 The exhibit 5.3 depicts the estimated growth rate of the WiMAX subscribers between 2008 and 2014 in Brazil and in the state do São Paulo. It is expected a CAGR of 30.8%. WiMAX Subscribers Growth 1000 920 800 600 Brasil 400 São Paulo* 237 184 200 47 0 2008 2014 Exhibit 5.3 – Estimated WiMAX subscribers growth – 30.8% CAGR 6. BROADBAND OFFERINGS The cable modem access reaches only 184 cities representing 74 million people, or 40% of Brazilian population which represents 53% of total Brazilian consumption in accordance to the IPC/Target.
  • 18. While the broadband competitiveness is so tough, the end user has few choices. The leader subscription service is called Speedy (from Telefonica and it is present only on the state of São Paulo). The exhibit 6.1 depicts the main fixed broadband offerings in 2009. Fixed Broadband Operators (in thousand subscribers) 2460 2500 2120 2000 1920 1762 1500 1320 1000 500 402 80 0 Telefonica NET Oi Brasil Telecom CTBC GVT TVA Exhibit 6.1 – Fixed Broadband Operators in 2009 An analysis done by IDC in July 2008 (published at www.puccamp.br/servicos em 06/07/2009), provides the broadband access prices in Brazil. The average price of minimum throughput (128 Kbps) was US$ 30. In Argentina, 512Kbps was US$ 27.05. 7. WiMAX CONSIDERATIONS The WiMAX community is doing a great effort to expand the possibilities and alternatives of devices and data applications from laptops and PCs, PDAs and other devices. WiMAX Operators around the world point the following key factors of this technology:
  • 19. Broadband access where it is not possible to reach with xDSL technology. The facility to focus the service at regions where there is demand allows a better return on investments • New player who intent to provide broadband services in a very short deadline • Unblunding restrictions done by traditional operators • Differentiation in comparison with xDSL. WiMAX may be positioned as a fixed network, portable, mobile within the same network. • IP architecture • Lower spectrum cost compared to 3G 8. MACRO ENVIRONMENT As per KOTLER (1995, p. 49), the macro environment consists of the forces that affect the whole micro environment: demographic, economic, technological, natural, political and cultural. 8.1 Social and Cultural environment The cultural characteristics of the areas to be serviced by a wireless broadband business are very non-homogeneous. The WiMAX service will not be focused for specific population profiles . In other countries, the WIMAX has been deployed to attend the regions that the ADSL cannot provide a quality service. For an operator like Telefonica, WiMAX could attend users from medium to big cities that live far away from urban areas. Other option would be to provide an additional service to the Speedy subscribers, not focusing on a specific social profile. For a new entrant which would compete with ADSL and 3G, there would
  • 20. not be segmentation of the area to be serviced. The segmentation could only be used during the implementation phase. 8.2 Demographic environment The demographic environment is a very important force since it consists of the population profile in terms of its age, ethnics, immigration, education level, lifestyle, etc.. As these trends are out of control of the company, it is important to anticipate the movement of the trends, to develop scenarios and to provide a constant adjustment on the market strategies. The observation of the demographic environment trends allow to develop geographic, ethnics, income salary and age segmentation strategies. The geographic segmentation is extremely important for a WiMAX deployment project. It allows identifying areas with great growth potential and low level of competition. It is on these areas that the deployment should start. 8.3 Economic environment The main implications of future changes on the economic environment are related to the demand. The demand is very sensitive to the variations of the economic activity and any well defined plan may fail if it ignores the influence of the economic environment. Brazil, which has the fifth greater population and the eighth consumer market in the world, it is becoming one of the best option for business in the world. The internal market growth and the continuous class C expansion has boosted the consumption in Brazil. As per magazine Exame (08/April/2009), the Class C spend its income salary as:
  • 21. 21% at commercial establishments (supermarket, drugstores) • 11% with transport (bus, subway, gasoline, taxi) • 10% with food (restaurant, groceries, snack bars) • 8% with entertainment (gifts, sightseeing, internet) • 7% with basic services (telephone, light, water, house rent) Based on this scenario, it is expected a high demand broadband services on the next years. 8.4 Technological environment At highly competitive segments, the technology is a key determinant factor for the business continuity. The innovations which aggregate product and service value affect the end user perception, creating a maximization of the cost benefit and an increase on the competitive advantage. The main deployed technological solutions to offer broadband services in Brazil are the UMTS with its HSPA platform and the old EVDO technology. Other mobile technologies that offer wireless data are GPRS and EDGE from GSM networks and 1xRTT from CDMA networks. MMDS operators also offer wireless internet (radio connection). The mobile broadband HSPA is the dominant technology. If we consider the UMTS cellular phones and 3G data devices, they represent 96% of 3G accesses in Brazil (source: Teleco). Regard the fixed telephone market, the operators are updating their ADSL networks with ADSL2, ADSL2+, VDSL and also are beginning to deploy the FTTH technology. The Exhibit 8.1 depicts a performance comparison among different technologies
  • 22. Peak Throuput Access Technology Mode Downlink Reach WiMAX* 3,5 GHz - 5 MHz <1.0 km bandwidth FDD Wireless Fixed 15 Mbps (urban area) WiMAX* 2,5 GHz - 5 MHz Wireless <1.25 km bandwidth TDD mobile 10 Mbps (urban area) WiFi (802.11a/b/g) Mobile < 54 Mbps < 0.1 km ADSL Fixed 8 Mbps 3 km ADSL2 Fixed 12 Mbps 1.5 km ADSL2+ Fixed 24 Mbps 1.5 km VDSL Fixed 50 - 100 Mbps 0.4 km FTTP (BPON-ATM) Fixed 622 Mbps 20 km FTTP (EPON-Ethernet) Fixed 1.250 Gbps 20 km FTTP (GPON-Ethernet/GEM) Fixed 1.244 Gbps 20 km FTTP (GPON-Ethernet/GEM) Fixed 2.488 Gbps 20 km EVDO* rel A - 1.8/1.9 GHz - Wireless 1.25 MHz bandwidth mobile 3.1 Mbps <1.7 km HSPA* 1.8/1.9 GHz - 5 Mhz Wireless bandwidth mobile 14.4 Mbps <1.7 km HSPA+* 1.8/1.9 GHz - 5 MHz Wireless bandwidth mobile 28 Mbps <1.7 km Exhibit 8.1 – Technology performance comparison among different technologies * Reach refers to a throughput that is less than the peak value It is noticed that in terms of access technology, WiMAX will face strong competition from 3G technology (HSPA and HSPA+). In the latest years the WiMAX technology had the following successes: • ITU accepted WiMAX as the sixth aerial interface for the IMT-200 • UQ Communications (sponsored by KDDI operator and Intel) granted the 2.5 GHz license in Japan for WiMAX • Intel invests heavily in infra-structure makers in Taiwan • Clearwire starts its operation in USA • Certification equipment is started at 2.5 GHz spectrum • Notebooks with embedded WiMAX are launched At the same time:
  • 23. Em junho de 2008, número de usuários HSPA atinge 65 milhões no mundo, um aumento de 81% em relação a Dezembro 2007. • In June 2008, HSPA users reach 65 millions in the world, a 81% increase compared to December, 2007. • The great success of the iPhone 3G as an strategic mark for the mobile industry • NGMN (Next Generation Mobile Networks Alliance) adopts the LTE as the preferred technology • At the end of 2008 there was more than 800 HSPA devices (mobile phones, PCMCIA cards, USB modem, laptops, etc) available on the market This proves that the HSPA has a great world market and continues gaining room and benefiting from the economies of scale. Other negative aspect for WiMAX is the requirement of capital intensive while the HSPA deployments are already done and requires only expansion or upgrades to accommodate new users. One of the crucial factors for the WiMAX market is the availability of end- users devices. The first devices, the CPEs (table devices and outdoor ones) had a very restricted market while laptops and USB cards will have a bigger market. The WiMAX success is directly linked to the availability of devices. This makes the user visualize value and bring advantage competitiveness to the business. Until now the device availability is very shy. Other competitor for WiMAX is the LTE technology which a technological fundamental similar to WiMAX. A telco could wait for the LTE consolidation and use it instead of WiMAX. LTE has been supported and developed by great vendors of network infrastructure while the majority WiMAX infrastructure are small companies.
  • 24. 8.4 Political environment The political and legal environment is composed of laws, government agencies and pressure groups that influence and restrict the actions of the companies. The political environment provides great restriction over the organizations and individuals. In July 2009, Anatel proposed a smoothly reduction on the TV operators frequencies in the 2.5 GHz band. The proposal consists in reducing the available spectrum from 190 MHz to 70 MHz in 2012 and from 70 MHz to 50 MHz in 2015. To start a WiMAX operation, 50 MHz may be enough. But 50 MHz of spectrum eliminates any possibility of expansion. It may be possible one or two operators in the same region with 25 MHz of spectrum without considering the band guard that may reach 5 MHz. In Portland, USA, Clearwire started its operation with 30 MHz of band and can increase the spectrum usage until 120 MHz (source: Teletime magazine, August 2009). The great movement on this area was the TVA acquisition by Telefonica in the cities of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Curitiba and Porto Alegre. It is commented that Telefonica paid between R$ 1 billion and R$ 1.6 billion and that most part of this value was due to the acquisition of the spectrum which is currently used by MMDS operation (2.5 GHz range). Recently Telefonica acquired Vivo which means that their interest on WiMAX may not exist anymore. Anatel intends to use the 2.5GHz spectrum with services such as LTE. The 3.5 GHz spectrum range is another band to be used for WiMAX. There are few operators on this range such as Embratel (whole country license), Brasil Telecom (license for 12 ANs), Grupo Sinos (AN RS1), Neovia (DirectNet) in the state of São Paulo, and WKVE (6 ANs in the states of Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo and Bahia). It should also be noticed that there is the lobby from cellular operators which had already invested billions to obtain their spectrum license. They
  • 25. argument that a MMDS operator deploying WiMAX would have a non fair advantage by offering wireless broadband services with WiMAX technology. 9. INTERNAL MICRO ENVIRONMENT The internal micro environment considers the resources, capabilities and the essential competencies of an organization which although they do not provide an intrinsic value, they represent value when seen by the possibility of generation of competitive advantage for the enterprise, providing return on investment above the average (CECCONELO e AJZENTAL, 2008 p. 114). The deployment and operation of a WiMAX network require diverse and different competencies of human resources and also from the organization. The competence of an organization represents the summation of the learning of all groups of abilities both at personal level and organizational level (Hamel ePrahalad (1995, p.233). Basically the competencies required to deploy and operate an WiMAX network are: • Knowledge and experience with radio-frequency engineering (it requires knowledge and experience with propagation, network design, antennas, etc). The challenge is to design a network to meet day one requirements as well as future requirements • WiMAX knowledge on both access and core sides • Cellular network deployment experience • Experience in site acquisition and site sharing • Technological group to evaluate infra-structure equipment as well as device hardware
  • 26. Experience in network operation, CRM, IP, billing, security and services • Marketing experience: coverage area segmentation and priorities, traffic estimation and growth prediction, business models, subscriber packages positioning, competitors knowledge As already commented on this paper, the content is the crucial part of the wireless broadband business. Users are not only interested on the broadband pipe. They want the applications and services that the broadband can provide. This means that the broadband provider needs to do partnerships with content distributors and also brings to the market the more advanced end-user WiMAX devices. 10. KEY SUCCESSES FACTORS The business and competitor knowledge will allow to determine the key successes factors which are the minimum requirements that are necessary for a enterprise to compete with possibilities of success. Based on literature, it is known that main success factors in the WiMAX network operation are the availability of CPEs, laptops and smartphones, service price and the cost of the backbone access to internet. Regarding the project deployment, as per COMARCH, the main success factors are the choice of WiMAX infra-structure provider totally engaged with this technology. Also, it is very important to minimize the number of additional providers for IP network, BTS backhaul, data servers, civil infra-structure, site acquisition. Other important success factors are definition of site priorities; maximize site sharing options, and a presence of a very skilled deployment team.
  • 27. 11. BUSINESS SUMMARY FRAMEWORK In accordance to CECCONELLO and AJZENTAL (2008, p. 134), it is important to aggregate all related information that concerns to the business plan in a table in order to make available a qualitative and quantitative summary about the aspects that can and cannot interfere directly or not directly in the business that is being proposed. The elaboration of this frame intends to bring to the table an integrated view about different existent variables that are pertinent to the proposed business, pertinent to the definition of the business and to the generic and marketing strategies. Table 11-1 provides this framework. 1 Potential Demand Fixed broadband access lines should increase from 10.38 millions to 18.9 millions by 2013 (source: Pyramid Research 2008) The number wireless broadband connections will surpass the number of broadband fixed connections by 201, when it wil reach 28 million connections (source: Pyramid Research 2009) The number of 3G subscribers will reach 46 millions in 2012. More thant half of these subscribers will use the cellular handset to access the internet (source: Yankee Group and Ericsson 2009) Infonetics Research (2009) forecasts 8 million WiMAX connections in Brazil by 2013 from 184 thousand connections in 2008. This means a CAGR of 112.64% The incorporation of people and families into the consumer market 2 Problems in meeting the demand Recent news show that there is a growing demand for broadband connections in a pace that the service providers cannot meet. 3 Not satisfied users xDSL services (e.g. Speedy from Telefonica) has presented several complaints mostly due to congestion in the network 3G services need to improve the network quality
  • 28. 4 Strong and weaknesses of the services xDSL services (e.g. Speedy from Telefonica) show throughput options that 3G services do not support The strong aspect of 3G services is the mobility 5 Technical viability Mobility restriction imposed by Anatel is one of the negative factors to be considered. However the subscriber can still access the internet from anywhere where there is service coverage The 50 MHz range of spectrum proposed by Anatel in the 2.5 GHz band can make not feasible growing plans of the WiMAX. This 50 MHz band could be shared between up to two providers 6 Economic viability Growing demand for broadband flags the WiMAX potential Few availability of WiMAX handsets in comparison to 3G devices can kill the WiMAX technology WiMAX will face heavy competitiveness from 3G systems which have more thant 800 different access devices in the world It is not sure for investment banks what is the differential that the WiMAX provides in comparison to the 3G networks WiMAX system at 3.5 GHz band will need a greater investment than 2.5 GHz systems (3,5 GHz coverage is pretty less than 2.5 GHz coverage) Network deployment requires very intensive capital. Providers which already have transmission backhaul and internet backbone access, can deploy WiMAX with less capital Table 11.1 – Framework for the business conception
  • 29. 12. BUSINESS CONCEPTION The goal of this chapter is to provide a base foundation for, given the opportunities analysis, to structure and develop a strategic proposal for , in the sequence, to verify its viability. 12.1 Business Plan Definition The business plan is a tool in which the entrepreneurs employs it in order to detail their ideas in a concise way based in assumptions of quality where it is demonstrated its viability and the probability of the business success. In accordance to Chiavenato (2005), the business plan consists of an anticipated planning in which the entrepreneur, based in a collection of data and information about a business, try to make it viable Business plans are needed at different scenarios. They can be used to expand a manufacturer plant, to verify the viability in attending a new market, to manufacture a new product, to offer a new service. This study will show a business plan for a new business. This plan has as the first goal to dissolve doubts for a possible decision maker about the quality of the plan In accordance to CECCONELLO and AJZENTAL (2008, p. 146), the challenge of every business plan is to identify precisely the reasons that suggest its elaboration. The reasons can be understood as the characterization of a problem motivated by the uncertainties about the viability of the business. The economic- financial analysis will reflect the verification of the hypothesis and variables concerned to the problem under study. In order to obtain a very trustful and solid economic-financial analysis, it should be necessary to perform an exploratory research that connects trends and correlations with the observed facts in the environment of the business.
  • 30. The proposed business plan will show the viability of deploying a WiMAX network at 2.5 GHz band. Several researches already commented; indicate an extraordinary growth of the broadband users for the next years, therefore showing a great business opportunity. The proposed business plan can be defined as: • Business: broadband access and content in any place • Function: entertainment, research, games, information • Groups: PC users and smartphones • Technology: wireless 12.2 Strategic Planning It is seen that there is a kind of difficulty to define the planning function in the enterprise world, to define its real magnitude and reach (OLIVEIRA, 2007, p. 3). Steiner (1969, p. 12) defined five dimensions non-reciprocally exclusive and without very defined borders of the planning: • Subject of interest: manufacturing, research, new products, finance, marketing, installations, human resource, etc. • Planning elements: intents, objectives, strategies, politics, programs, budget, standard, procedures, etc. • Time dimension: long-term, medium-term or short-term • Business unit: corporate planning, business unit strategy planning, affiliate planning, functional groups planning, division planning, department planning, product, services, etc.. • Characteristic: complex or simple, quantity or quality strategic or tactic planning, public or confidential, formal or informal, expensive or non expensive
  • 31. So, the planning is defined as a process based on the five shown dimensions, done to reach a future scenario in more efficient and effective way, using optimized efforts and resources from the organization. In accordance to SLACK et all, (2002 p. 87), strategy is the global standard of decisions and actions that position the organization on its environment and has the mission to make it reaches its objectives of long term run. These decisions will take place before, during and after the elaboration and deployment of the plan. The planning can be distinguished into three types: strategic, tactic and operational. According to OLIVEIRA, (2007, p. 17), the strategic planning is the administrative process which provides marketing sustentation in order to establish the best direction an organization should follow, aiming an optimized level of interaction with the external factors - non manageable – and acting in an innovative and differentiate way. According to FISCHMANN and ALMEIDA (1991, p. 25), strategic planning is an administrative technique which based on the organization environment, it creates the conscious of the opportunities and threats, strengthens and weaknesses of the organization for the accomplishment of its mission. Based on this conscious, it is established the purpose of the direction that the organization should follow in order to take advantage of the opportunities and avoid risks. According to OLIVEIRA (2007, p. 18), the objective of the tactic planning is to optimize the results of determined area of the organization. So, it works with the decomposition of the objectives, strategies and politics that were established in the strategic planning. It is developed by the intermediate management levels of the organization.
  • 32. OLIVEIRA, (2007, p.19) defines operational planning as the formalization of the methodologies of development and deployment of specific results to be reached by the functional areas of the organization. The subject matter of this work is the supply of wireless broadband services and contents with an objective of return on investment in seven years. The scenario that is expected for the next years (2010 – 2014) is characterized by a sustainable economic growth (better than 4% a year). The increase in the power consumption of the population will stimulate the appearance of new services and increase the dispute among cellular operators, internet via Cable Modem and ADSL service providers. 12.3 Purpose of the Organization: Vision, Mission, Believes & Values, and Objectives According to CECCONELLO and AJZENTAL, (2008, p. 149), the purpose of one organization gathers vision, mission, believes & values, and objectives, which help the arrangement of the organization. These aspects are important in order for the entrepreneur to build the identity of its business, establishing the organization climate, the standard of behaviors to be followed, what is really being pursued on its business. According to OLIVEIRA, (2007, p.65), the vision is defined as the limits that the owners and main executive people can visualize within a certain period of a longer time and one wider approach. Within this context, the vision provides a solid outline of the strategic planning to be developed and deployed by the organization. The vision represents what the organization intends to be. According to OLIVEIRA, (2007, p.107), the mission is the reason of being of the organization. Therefore, it tries to find what is real business of the organization, why it exists, what activities the organization will concentrate in the future.
  • 33. According to OLIVEIRA, (2007, p.67), the values represent a set of foundations and fundamental beliefs of an organization, and at the same time they provide sustentation for all your main decisions. The values should have a strong interaction with ethical and moral values of the organization. According to OLIVEIRA, (2007, p.141), the objective may be defined as a state, situation or a future result that the executive intends to reach. It relates to everything that implies in obtaining a final result. Objective is a target with a defined execution deadline and assigned responsibilities. According to OLIVEIRA, (2007, p.141), the objective may be defined as a state, situation or a future result that the executive intends to reach. It relates to everything that implies in obtaining a final result. Objective is a target with a defined execution deadline and assigned responsibilities. According to CECCONELLO and AJZENTAL, (2008, p. 155), the objectives show a more quantitative approach of the company goals, on the revenue, market share and profitability sides. Four our business plan, there are: • Vision: innovate and offer entertainment, information and communication at any place • Mission: provide excellence in content services • Main objective: reach 360 thousand subscribers within five years
  • 34. 12.4 Generic Competitive Strategies According to OLIVEIRA (2007, p. 181), strategy is defined as a path, or way, or a defined and appropriate action to reach, preferably in a differentiate way, the goals, the challenges and established objectives, in a better positioning of the company in front of its environment.. The strategies may be defined in accordance with the situation of the company, it may be related to the survival of the company, growing or development . Porter (1996) identified three generic competitive strategies which a firm can face and tackle the competitive strengths of the industry in which the firm acts: cost leadership strategy, level of differentiation, and scope of target market or approach. These strategies are defined below: • Cost Leadership: this strategy aims to obtain a cost structure that is lower to the firm’s competitors, allowing it to obtain a great revenue volume. The firms that adopt this strategy need to minimize costs by controlling administrative, marketing, distribution, research and development, human resources costs etc.. • Differentiation: the firm distinguishes its products in way that they are noticed as unique on its industry. The differentiation may be in the offer of products or services, on the deployed technology, on the delivery system, on the market process, on the brand, style, performance, post-sale support, etc.. • Scope of target market: this strategy consists of concentrating the efforts in a determined group of customers, in a product line segment or in a specific market. This strategy is based on the assumption that a firm is different when it better attends the needs of a specific market, or provide lower costs for this specific market or both things. For the proposed business plan, intends to be: • Cost leader when compared to 3G systems. The differentiation will appear as a consequence of the business. If a fixed wireline operator deploys
  • 35. this project, it will be the only company to offer fixed and mobile broadband access at the same time. 12.4 Marketing Strategy The marketing strategy should be elaborated with the aim of reaching the purposes of the organization and or of the business. According to KOTLER & ARMSTRONG (1993, p. 367), the strategic plan defines the mission and general objectives of the firm. Each business unit should prepare its functional plans, including the marketing plan. If the business unit consists of so many product lines, brands and markets, it may be necessary to develop plans for each of them. The marketing plans may include product, brand and market plans. 12.4.1 Marketing Plan Definition According to CECCONELLO and AJZENTAL (2008, p.161), the marketing plan integrates the interdependent elements of the marketing such as sales, product management, customer assistance, advertisement, merchandise, sales promotion, lobby, public relations, brand and distribution. The marketing mix defines the strategic position of a product in the market. It includes the four main variables that a firm can administer in order to implement its market strategy: Product, Place (distribution), Promotion and Price. According to CECCONELLO and AJZENTAL (2008, p.161), the marketing plan should be specific for product line, by market and by region and must be supported by the market research. The main objectives are to provide the executive board a concise and complete financial and marketing summary report containing the forecast result and objectives.
  • 36. The proposed business plan intends to provide: • Executive summary: the broadband service will attend firstly the urban areas where there are greatest fixed broadband subscriber density • Current market situation is dominated by a great expansion of 3G broadband subscribers. 3G system quality is still a issue (EXAME magazine report, 15/July/2009 p. 91) • As described in the beginning of this work, there will be a great demand for broadband services on the next years. This is the great opportunity The threat is the lack of user devices such as smartphones, USB dongles, and laptops with embedded WiMAX modem. • Be present in the fixed broadband users market, by offering them wireless broadband access by a small additional amount. The plan is to capture 360 thousand subscribers in five years. 12.4.1 Market Segmentation 1. Segmentation Market segmentation consists of identifiable groups within a market: Benefit segmentation consists in dividing a market into groups based on the different benefits that consumers seek on a product or service (people that seek for low prices, others that seek superior quality, and others that seek service quality). Demographic segmentation consists in dividing the market into groups based on age, sex, education, income, religion, etc.. Occasion segmentation consists in dividing the market into groups according to the occasion when the consumers get the idea, purchase, use the product (e.g.: passengers traveling by business, by leisure or emergency reasons
  • 37. Usage rate segmentation means in grouping persons based on their usage rate: heavy, medium, light, and nonusers of a product. For instance, some people drink one cup of coffee per day (light users) while others drink five or more cups per day (heavy users). Life style segmentation is a type of psychographic segmentation which consists in grouping persons or diving a market based on preferences of their lifestyle (for instance high class people which consume imported cigars and use sport cars, people that enjoy outdoor life, etc) According to KOTLER (2009, p. 45), the market professional can concentrate its efforts into one or two segments and which of them receiving the appropriate consideration. 2. Market Niche KOTLER (2009, p. 45) defines niches as a group of small customers which show more defined characteristics, or a unique combination of needs. By concentrating in attending a niche provides some advantages, including the opportunity of knowing each customer in a more personal way, to face less competitors and sell services and products with a superior margin once the customers intend to pay more for the fact of having their specific needs attended. 3. Local Market According to KOTLER (2009, p. 47), the firms may identify smaller customer groups which share some characteristics and offer market opportunities known as local market. Many companies provide customer databases which contain information about demography, previous customer purchase, preferences and other customer characteristics Our business plan intends to:
  • 38. Use demographic segmentation: the network rollout will start in the high income areas and reach the suburban areas in a later date. 12.4.1 Marketing Mix The marketing mix, also know as the 4P’s - product, price, promotion, and distribution (place) - translates into actions that should be performed in order to influence the buyer. As per CECCONELLO and AJZENTAL (2008, p.163), and KOTLER (2009, p. 126), the 4P’s are described as: • Product: attributes of any good, service, idea, person, institution, etc., which potentially has an exchange value. It is featured by variety, quality, design, brand, package, size, warranty, reimbursement. • Price: attributes that reflect the cost of the product to the consumer, as the price itself, payment conditions, acceptance or not of credit cards among others. It includes price list, discounts, licenses, payment deadline, credit conditions. • Distribution (Place): is everything that relates to the distribution, physical location and logistics to make the product arrives to the final consumer. It consists of channels, coverage, location, stock, transport. • Promotion: is the active communication process of the attributes and benefits of a product for the intended target market. It is characterized by sales promotion, advertisement, sales force, public relations, direct marketing.
  • 39. KOTLER (2009, p. 127) considers the inclusion of two other P’s that are very important for the global market: politics and public opinion. CECCONELLO and AJZENTAL (2008, p.164) state that when a service is being offered, three more P’s may be added to the 4P’s: • People: they are the individuals involved in the service delivery (how they are trained, how they behave in the service delivery, etc..) • Processes: consist of the activities that the individuals perform to provide the service delivery • Physical evidence: it is an element of the marketing mix which customers can actually experience or visualize when they use a service, and which contributes to the perceived quality of this service. It is the place where the service is delivered (airplane, doctor’s clinic, etc) Our business plan consists of: • Product: wireless broadband and differentiated content • Competitive price when compared to the 3G systems • Establish a process where the service subscription may be completed in five minutes • Service will be delivered in any place in São Paulo city where there is network coverage The table 12.1 presents a summary frame of the business plan conception.
  • 40. Dimension Definition Business: Broadband and content access anywhere Function: entertainment, research, games, information 1 Business Plan Groups: portable computer and smartphones users Technology: wireless (WiMAX) The subject matter of this work is the supply of wireless broadband services and contents with an objective of return on investment in seven years. The scenario that is expected for the next years (2010 – 2014) is 2 Strategic Planning characterized by a sustainable economic growth (better than 4% a year). The increase in the power consumption of the population will stimulate the appearance of new services and increase the dispute among cellular operators, internet via Cable Modem and ADSL service providers. Vision: innovate and offer entertainment, information and communication at Purpose of the any place 3 Organization Mission: provide excellence in content services Main objective: reach 360 thousand subscribers within five years Cost leader when compared to 3G systems. The differentiation will appear as Generic a consequence of the business. If a fixed wireline operator deploys this 4 Competitive project, it will be the only company to offer fixed and mobile broadband Strategies access at the same time 5 Marketing Strategy Executive summary: the broadband service will attend firstly the urban areas where there are greatest fixed broadband subscriber density Current market situation is dominated by a great expansion of 3G broadband subscribers. 3G system quality is still a issue (EXAME magazine report, 15/July/2009 p. 91) As described in the beginning of this work, there will be a great demand for 1 Marketing Plan broadband services on the next years. This is the great opportunity The threat is the lack of user devices such as smartphones, USB dongles, and laptops with embedded WiMAX modem Be present in the fixed broadband users market, by offering them wireless broadband access by a small additional amount. The plan is to capture 360 thousand subscribers in five years Market Use demographic segmentation: the network rollout will start in the high 2 Segmentation income areas and reach the suburban areas in a later date. Product: wireless broadband and differentiated content Competitive price when compared to the 3G systems Establish a process where the service subscription may be completed in five 3 Marketing Mix minutes Service will be delivered in any place in São Paulo city where there is network coverage Table 12.1 – Business plan conception summary frame
  • 41. 13. WIMAX NETWORK BUSINESS PLAN The elaboration of the business plan is the first step in order to build a WiMAX network. It is a critical step whose final results will depend heavily on the assumptions defined on this phase. Bad assumptions will improperly influence the next steps of the project. The business plan is characterized by several analyzes involving the technical and economic areas that will provide profitability and risks estimations derived from the assumed assumptions. The business plan should consider the competitors that are part of the broadband market and their technologies, initial investment to build the network and the operation costs of this network. The competitors are the 3G networks (1xEVDO and mainly the HSPA networks0, WiFi networks, Cable modem internet service providers, and ADSL internet service providers (Haig Sarkiassian and Randal Schwartz, 2007), and the LTE networks. Some authors such as Ethevaldo Siqueira (2008), mention that WiMAX will be an advanced alternative for the broadband access, while the 3G and WiMAX would complement themselves. The sensibility analysis will determine what are the factors that strongly affect the return of investiment of the business. Several methodologies and tools may be used to estimate the profitability of the business. The discounted cash flow (DCF) is one of them. This tool can determine the period of return of the business and also the Net Present Value (NPV) based on an estimation of the discounted future cash flows in order to give their present values. In the analysis of the WiMAX business, it should be necessary to estimate the service penetration and its evolution in the next years, the churn rate and the allowance for doubtful accounts, the revenue evolution and the network operation costs. The terms CAPEX (capitalized expenses which are the network infra-
  • 42. structure costs) and OPEX (expended costs which are the operation and maintenance costs of the network) will used on this analysis. The elaboration of this business plan will be based on the methodology described by Sarkissian and Schwartz (2007). 13.1 Input Parameters The first step for the elaboration of the business plan is to obtain all relevant parameters that concerns to the business. 13.1.1 Morphologic Area It includes the morphologic areas to be attended by the broadband services: high density urban areas, urban areas, suburban and rural areas. It is important to obtain detailed information for each morphologic area about number of inhabitants, houses, companies, terrain profile (flat, mountain, etc) and type of vegetation (grass, trees, etc). For this plan, the intention is to attend the areas described in the table 13.1 Total area Environment (km²) Dense urban / urban 187.06 Urban / Suburban 519.62 Suburban / Rural 504.13 Total 1210.81 Table 13.1 – Profile of the areas to be serviced
  • 43. 13.1.2 Spectrum and Bandwidth For a wireless operator, the spectrum ownership is its more valuable asset. The spectrum cost is one of the more critical items of the business plan. A well elaborated business plan determines how much a future operator can offer by the acquisition of the spectrum in order to provide a reasonable return of investment to its investors. For this plan, it is assumed a bandwidth of 30 MHz (each BTS will have 3 channels of 10 MHz) in the 2.5 GHz spectrum band. 13.1.3 Coverage Area – Radio Frequency Engineering To determine the coverage area of each base station in order to dimension the network, it should be necessary to consider the morphologic environment of each base station and the BTS overlapping factor. The tables 13.2 and 13.3 show the generic link budget of a 2.5 GHz WiMAX network for both downlink and uplink. The propagation model used is the SUI (Erceg and others, 1999). Columns A, B and C refer to the morphologic environment that can be referenced to the dense urban/urban, suburban and suburban/rural. The link budget refers to a WiMAX terminal (Smartphone or laptop with embedded modem) in the cell border with rates of 1.5 Mbps and 512 Kbps for the downlink and uplink respectively.
  • 44. Parameters Downlink A B C Operation Frequency (MHz) 2500 2500 2500 Frequency reuse N =3 N =3 N =3 Mobility Fixo Fixo Fixo BTS power transmitter (dBm) 36 36 36 Gain: MIMO + array (dB) 5 5 5 Ganho da antena da ERB (dB) 17.5 17.5 17.5 Jumper losses (dB) 0.5 0.5 0.5 Terminal receiver antenna gain (dBi) 0 0 0 Terminal receiver sensitivity (BPSK 1/2) (dBm) -96.5 -96.5 -96.5 Fading margin (90% area reliability) (dB) 5 5 5 Interference margin (dB) 3 3 3 Building penetration loss (dB) 18 15 8 Maximum allowed loss (dB) 128.5 131.5 138.5 Coverage radius based on SUI model(km) 0.85 1.25 2.1 Table 13.1 – 2.5 GHz WiMAX link budget (downlink) Parameters Uplink A B C Terminal transmitter power (dBm) 26 26 26 Terminal antenna gain (dBi) 5 5 5 Receiver jumper losses of the BTS (dB) 0.5 0.5 0.5 Receiver antenna gain of the BTS (dBi) 17.5 17.5 17.5 Diversity gain (dB) 2 2 2 Array anrenna gain (dB) 0 0 0 BTS receiver sensibility (dBm) -99 -99 -99 Fading margin (90% area reliability) (dB) 5 5 5 Interference margin (dB) 3 3 3 Building penetration loss (dB) 18 15 8 Sub-channelization gain (512 kbps na borda) 3 9 9 Maximum allowed loss (dB) 126 135 142 Coverage radius based on SUI model(km) 0.75 1.55 2.55 Table 13.2 – 2.5 GHz WiMAX link budget (uplink) The business plan intends to deploy 300 BTSs in São Paulo city (and possibly in some areas in the metropolitan area) as: • Dense urban / urban environment: 128 stations • Urban / Suburban environment: 128 stations
  • 45. Suburban / Rural environment: 44 stations Considering a consistent level of overlapping among cells, the quantities described above meet the coverage needs described in table 13.1. 13.1.4 CAPEX Assumptions The CAPEX includes the acquisition and construction cost of the stations, the BTSs cost, the BTSs installation cost, power equipments, transmission backhaul and Core network (ASN, routers, DHCP servers, AAA servers, billing servers, NMS and CRM servers). 1. Sites The future WiMAX operator can develop different strategies of site sharing in order to install a WiMAX BTS. It may share the station, the shelter, antennas, transmission backhaul. Dian and Kettani (2004) show several alternatives of resources sharing. For this plan, it will be used the strategy described in the table 13.4. Sites Percentage New sites 30% Existing sites 30% Shared sites 40% ‘Table 13.4 – Sites deployment strategy The sharing model is the traditional one where it is arranged a place to install the BTS and the tower is shared to install the antennas. 2. Spectrum The spectrum may be considered as the main asset of the operator. According to Pyramid Research (2008), the average world price for the
  • 46. Megahertz per population (PMP) is US$ 0.007. This price tends to be greater in the emergent markets and less on the developed countries. The spectrum price is a very sensitive parameter when determining the payoff period of a business. A very high price will make not viable the business plan. According to the Magazine Exame (August 2009, p. 11), it is described that the purchase of TVA by Telefonica represented to the spanish operator a value between R$ 1 billion and R$ 1.6 billions. It is estimated that 50% of this value is due to the spectrum cost (190 MHz in the 2.5 GHz band). For this plan, it is assumed a price for the spectrum much greater than the world average price. It is being assumed a price of R$ 0,20 per Megahertz per population. Segregating for the São Paulo city, the spectrum price will be R$ 66 millions (30 MHz spectrum band). This price is well in accordance with the price Telefonica paid to acquire 190 MHz of spectrum from TVA for the cities of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Curitiba and Porto Alegre. These cities represent 21 million inhabitants. However, due to the need of guard band between MMDS and WiMAX systems, it is being assumed a value of R$ 90 millions for 30 MHz spectrum in the city of São Paulo. 3. BTS The base station transceiver (BTS) is the network element responsible by the communication of the WiMAX system with the subscriber devices. The complete system contains BTSs, RF cables, antennas and a transmission backhaul system. The backhaul is responsible of transmitting the aggregate traffic of the subscribers under a BTS towards the network core. It is being assumed that the proposed network will require 210 radio point- to-point links. The remaining backhaul transmission will be provided by fiber optics whose cost will be assumed as network operation. The table 13.5 shows the estimated costs of acquisition of BTSs and accessories, antennas, radio links and installation material.
  • 47. Unit price Item (R$) Number Total price BTS, acessories, installation material 95.000 300 28.500.000 Antennas 600 1800 1.080.000 Digital - point-to-point (70% of the sites) including the installation material 68.500 210 14.385.000 Total 43.965.000 Table 13.5 – Expected costs for BTSs, antennas and radios acquisition It will be assumed the following values for the installation costs • BTS: R$ 8.000,00 per unit • Radio: R$ 5.100,00 per link 4. Civil costs The civil part includes all the necessary elements in order to prepare the site to start the WiMAX BTS installation. It includes site acquisition costs (purchase or rent), civil infra-structure construction costs and powering. The table 13.6 exemplifies the costs where the scenario consists of 30% new sites, 30% existing sites and 40% shared sites. Item Unit price (R$) Number Total price Metalic post (30% of the sites) 50.000 90 4.500.000 Metalic post foundation (30% of the sites) 80.000 90 7.200.000 Installation material (civil) 5.000 90 450.000 Civil construction 15.000 300 4.500.000 Site acquisition costs 7.500 90 675.000 Total 17.325.000 Table 13.6 – Infrastructure costs for new sites
  • 48. 5. Core Network The WiMAX core basically consists of the ASN (Access Service Network) and CSN (Customer Service Network) entities. The ASN includes the necessary functions to provide radio access to the users terminals. The ASN entity consists of the BTSs and the ASN gateway. The CSN consists of the AAA (entity responsible for authentication, authorization and accounting of users traffic), DNS/DHCP (domain name service and dynamic host configuration protocol. It is an entity for internet access), HA (Home agent. It provides the PDSN (packet data service node) function and provides IP connectivity to the users terminals), NMS (Network Management System. It provides the function of operation administration and maintenance of the network). The WiMAX core network usually also includes a CRM (Customer relationship management) platform and an IP network in order to interconnect all platforms of the core network. The table 13.7 shows the assumed values used for the Core network. Item Unit price (R$) Number Total price 20 SUN V440 platforms (main and backup: AAA, Billing, DNS, CRM, NMS) 80.000 20 1.600.000 CRM Platform (software) 1.000.000 2 2.000.000 AAA Platform (Bridgewater or Metasolv) 150.000 2 300.000 NMS Platform (software) 500.000 4 2.000.000 Switch router 103.700 4 414.800 Firewall 25.000 2 50.000 Installation material for the interconnection of platforms and equipments 25.000 1 25.000 Total 6.389.800 Table 13.7 – Core network costs
  • 49. 6. Deployment costs The deployment costs refer to the Project management, engineering and installation costs. It is assumed a total cost of R$ 16 million reals for a 18-month deployment. 13.1.5 Subscribers Growing Rate Assumptions In the beginning of this work, it was elaborated an analysis to dimension the wireless broadband subscribers base for the next years based on projections from research institutions, education level of the Brazilian population, wireless internet users profile and also projections based on the income rate of the Brazilian population. The more pessimistic result provides a number of 4 million wireless broadband users in the state of São Paulo. The forecast of several research institutes is that the number of WiMAX subscribers in the world will vary between 2% and 10% of the total 3G broadband users. This forecast limits the number of WiMAX users. So, the strategy of the plan is that a fixed operator (e.g. Telefonica in São Paulo), offer an additional wireless broadband service to their subscribers. This plan is limited to the São Paulo city where there is an estimation of a capacity of up 2 million users of wireless internet in the next years. The goal is to capture 360 thousand subscribers as depicted below: 1. Service plan The WiMAX technology intends to provide a great price decrease of the megabit. In addition, it provides a fast network deployment. Also, the presence in the market of laptops and smartphones with WiMAX embedded modems, all this will provide the operators a great competitive advantage.
  • 50. The proposed service plan consists in providing for ADSL users the possibility of acquiring a wireless broadband service by a small amount of money. The table 13.8 shows the service plan. Users Price Class QoS DL OSR distribution (R$) Minimum 1500 kbps 25 Business Maximum 5000 kbps 50 5,0% 129 Minimum 512 kbps 25 Platinum Maximum 1500 kbps 50 10,0% 44.9 Minimum 256 kbps 25 Gold Maximum 1000 kbps 50 35.0% 34.9 Silver Best Effort 512 kbps 50 50,0% 24.9 Table 13.8 – Service Plan (QoS: Quality of service, DL: downlink, OSR: oversubscription rate) The OSR parameter informs the amount of the designed overload for the network, i. e. , how much capacity is exceeded if all users access the network at same under their designed nominal rate. Typical overload values are between 25 and 40. The business plan does not consider additional value services that the operator may offer to their subscribers such as video and music download, content distribution such as online news and specific on demand entertainment. According to ANDRÉ RIEDEL and others, different ways of incentives may reduce the traffic demand at congestion periods and allow to increase the overbook value of the project subscribers. 2. Subscribers evolution growth The subscribers growth plan forecasts: • 54 thousand subscribersin average in the first year
  • 51. 144 thousand subscribers in average in the second year • 230 thousand subscribersin average in the third year • 300 thousand subscribers in average in the fourth year • 360 thousand subscribers in average in the fifth year 13.1.5 OPEX Assumptions OPEX represents the costs incurred to keep the firm in an operational state. It includes the network operational costs and planning, transmission backhaul maintenance, power, site rents, sales, marketing, promotion and customer support. According to some technical papers from WiMAX Forum, “Business Case Models for Fixed Broadband Wireless Access based on WiMAX Technology and the 802.16 Standard” (2004) and “WiMAX: The Business Case for Fixed Wireless Access in Emerging Markets” (2005), it was developed the assumptions for the network operation costs. These publications also contain the estimation of the costs for internet connectivity. It is estimated the internet connectivity costs will vary between R$ 5 million reals and R$ 17 million reals per year. The table 13.9 shows the cost assumptions for the network operation.
  • 52. Item Assumptions 20% of the revenue in the first year, decreasing to 11% of the revenue in the fifth year and Marketing and Sales expenses beyond 10% of the revenue in the first year, decreasing to 7% of the revenue in the fifth year and Network Operation beyond 6% of the revenue in the first year, decreasing to G&A 3% of the revenue in the fifth year and beyond BTS Maintenance 5% of the BTS CAPEX NMS Maintenance 5% of the NMS CAPEX Radio Maintenance 5% of the Radio CAPEX Site rent R$ 1800,00 a month in average per site Provision for bad debts 1% of the revenue CRM Maintenance 5% of CRM CAPEX AAA Maintenance 5% of AAA CAPEX Sun platforms maintenance 5% of Sun CAPEX Internet connectivity access Between 5 million and 17 million reals per year Table 13.9 – OPEX assumptions 13.2 Output Parameters The main Project output parameters are the period of return of the investment, the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and also the Net Present Value (NPV) . The network deployment will cost R$ 94 million of reals in equipments, sites and project team. In the year zero, it will be necessary R$ 65.7 million of reals and R$ 28.3 million of reals in the first year of network operation. Additional R$ 18 million reals are necessary in the first year to operate the network in its first year. Based on the above assumptions, it is estimated that the period of return of the investment will be six years. It is estimated an IRR of 11.56% on the end of the seventh year of network operation.
  • 53. The Business plan development of a WiMAX network is a very complex process that takes so much time. As there are several involved variables, it is crucial that the project assumptions be consistent and precise. The sensibility analysis shows that the more sensible items are spectrum license price and the internet connectivity price. As already commented, this proposed service is to be offered to the fixed broadband users (e..g. Speedy from Telefonica). So, by a small additional price, these users could purchase wireless broadband internet with mobility. This strategy is aligned with the studies done by LANOO and others. 14. WiMAX NETWORK DEPLOYMENT A Project is a temporary effort undertaken to create a unique product, service or result (PMBOK 2004). Temporary means that all projects consist of a very well definite beginning and a definite end. The projects are a way of organizing activities that cannot be approached within the operational limits of an organization. The PMBOK (Project Management Body of Knowledge) has become a very widely used standard by several organizations in the world. Together with the Project Management, the Six Sigma methodology has been deployed by project managers and other professionals in search of greater efficiency and effectiveness in the deployment of projects and business management. ISREFANI C. de PAULA and others (2006) compare the approach of Project Management and Six Sigma methodology, identifying similarities and differences. According to WERKEMA, the Six Sigma methodology is not just another initiative of project management or a program of process improvement that uses old concepts in a modern way. The Six Sigma methodology is a continuous
  • 54. strategy based on data statistics information collected in projects and organizations. According to ISTEFANI C. de PAULA and others (2006), on the majority of the projects, the Six Sigma methodology is conducted by teams led by Black Belts or Green Belts and it is usually deployed with the process improvement method called DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control). According to to Eckes (2001), each phase means: According to WERKEMA, the Six Sigma methodology is not just another initiative of project management or a program of process improvement that uses old concepts in a modern way. The Six Sigma methodology is a continuous strategy based on data statistics information collected in projects and organizations According to ISTEFANI C. de PAULA and others (2006), on the majority of the projects, the Six Sigma methodology is led by teams leadered by Black Belts or Green Belts and it is usually deployed with the process improvement method called DMAIC (Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control). According to to Eckes (2001), each phase means: 1. Define: definition of improvement goals for the different levels of the organization such as improvement of the profitability numbers of operation and projects, manufacturing level and improvement, and service quality improvement. The problems and the inefficiencies should be considered as opportunities of improvement. In this phase, it is started the stream value mapping. 2. Measure: measure the efficiency and effectiveness of the current system using reliable metrics that will allow to monitor the progress of the system through these metrics. In this phase, it is the stream value mapping is finished. 3. Analyze: use of techniques and statistics tools in order to eliminate the gap between current performance and desired performance level. It is determined the root cause of the problems and inefficiencies.
  • 55. 4. Improve: find creative methods based on root of the problems in order to improve process that will result in way to accomplish the activities in a better way providing the desired outcomes. 5. Control: Implement the control in the new system or process and ensure that the improvements will be sustained in the future and that the desired outcomes are achieved. The control should be done both at tactic and strategic level of the organization. ] According to PETERKA (2005), the search of the root cause of the problems, the magnitude and accuracy of the Six Sigma methodology, all this make the Six Sigma methodology different of the typical project management. The Six Sigma method contains a Project Charter model very well defined that describes the project scope, financial goals, benefits, milestones and others. It is strongly based on data and economies with hard control (DMAIC) that performs specific measurements, identify specific problems and their root causes, and provide specific solutions that can be measured. In project management cases, the organizations usually implement projects without a complete knowledge of what are the financial gains. According to MUNIZ (2008), in the implementation of a project, it should be taken into account that the main goal is to create value to the final consumer providing an enough and competitive profitability margin to the allocated project capital. Therefore, besides of the mastering of the process techniques (initiation, planning, execution, control and administrative closure) and project management tools, it is strictly necessary to consider the concepts and market analysis techniques, risks modeling and evaluation, and the return of the project investment. So, it is important that the project manager consider the investment, financial and operational decisions. The Six Sigma methodology will provide performance metrics in a continuous way to the project manager. So, decisions can be taken in a fast and precise way.
  • 56. 14.1 Diamond Model One of the more common myths in the world of project management is that all projects are similar and that tools and similar methods can be used for all project activities. This erroneous concept took several projects to succumb to the failure and created great disappointments to the project managers, stakeholders and project sponsors. The reality is that projects differentiate by themselves in several aspects and few organizations acknowledge this formally. According to SHENHAR (2005), the diamond model consists in four dimensions which are novelty, complexity, technology and pace. He shows how to classify the projects and how to adapt the management style for the correct project. The four dimensions for distinction among project types are • Novelty: how new is the product to customers and users o Derivative, Platform, Breakthrough • Technology: how much new technology is used o Low-tech, Medium-tech, High-tech, Super-tech • Complexity: how complex is the system and its subsystems o Assembly, System, Array • Pace: How critical is the time frame o Regular, Fast/Competitive, Time-critical, Blitz