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24.04.2013



                                                                                       Company Analysis - Overview
                                                                                                                                                         Mining and Metallurgical Company Norilsk Nickel OJSC or GMK Norilsk Nickel is a
Ticker:                    MNOD LI           MMC Norilsk Nickel OJSC                                      Benchmark:                                     producer of base and precious metals. The Company's main products are nickel and
Currency:                                    London Intl: MNOD, Currency: USD                             FTSE 100 INDEX (UKX)                           palladium. MMC Norilsk Nickel also produces copper, cobalt, platinum, gold, silver and
                                                                                                                                                         other precious metals. MMC Norilsk Nickel is headquartered in Moscow with its main
Sector: Materials        Industry: Metals & Mining                                                           Year:                                       production facilities in Taimyr and Kola peninsula.

Telephone         7-495-787-76-67                    Revenue (M)                                12'065    Business Segments in USD                               Sales (M)   Geographic Segments in USD                              Sales (M)
Website           www.nornik.ru                      No of Employees                          #N/A N/A    Mining and Metallurgy                                     11075    Europe                                                      6066
Address           22 Voznesensky pereulok Moscow, 115230 Russian Federation                               Other                                                        990   Asia                                                        2750
Share Price Performance in USD                                                                            Energy and Utilities                                               North America                                               1226
Price                              16.05             1M Return                                   -3.9%                                                                       Russian Federation                                          1015
52 Week High                       20.44             6M Return                                    4.0%                                                                       Adjustments                                                 1004
52 Week Low                        13.96             52 Wk Return                                -3.8%                                                                       Other                                                           4
52 Wk Beta                           1.11            YTD Return                                 -12.9%                                                                       Nickel
Credit Ratings
Bloomberg                     -                                                                                                   8%                                                                  8% 0%
S&P                        BBB-       Date              26.09.2011              Outlook          NEG
Moody's                       -       Date              11.07.2012              Outlook        STABLE                                                                                          8%
Fitch                       BB+       Date              19.08.2011              Outlook        STABLE
Valuation Ratios                                                                                                                                                                         10%
                          12/09      12/10      12/11        12/12    12/13E        12/14E      12/15E                                                                                                                       51%
P/E                           -          -          -            -       8.8x          8.2x        7.3x
EV/EBIT                    8.4x       6.5x       5.1x         8.0x          -             -           -
EV/EBITDA                  6.8x       5.8x       4.6x         6.8x          -             -           -
P/S                           -          -          -            -       2.2x          2.2x        2.0x
P/B                           -          -          -            -       1.8x          1.8x        1.7x                                                                                        23%
Div Yield                     -          -          -            -      9.3%         10.3%        8.8%                                         92%
Profitability Ratios %
                       12/09         12/10      12/11        12/12    12/13E        12/14E      12/15E
Gross Margin            51.1          61.8       59.0         49.1      48.1          48.3        46.2                                                                                                  Europe
EBITDA Margin           50.9          57.7       51.3         40.9      42.3          42.8        43.2                                                                                                  Asia
Operating Margin        41.4          51.4       45.9         34.3      35.9          35.2        35.2                                                                                                  North America
                                                                                                                           Mining and Metallurgy     Other
Profit Margin           30.4          25.8       25.5         18.0      25.0          25.5        26.1                                                                                                  Russian Federation
Return on Assets        11.9          14.1       16.8         10.9      17.5          15.5        18.8
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Adjustments
Return on Equity        21.3          21.2       25.3         18.1      21.5          22.8        23.4
                                                                                                                                                                                                        Other
Leverage and Coverage Ratios
                       12/09         12/10      12/11        12/12
Current Ratio             2.0          4.8        1.7          1.7                                        Current Capitalization in USD
Quick Ratio               1.0          2.4        0.7          0.4                                        Common Shares Outstanding (M)                                                          #N/A Field Not Applicable
EBIT/Interest           27.6          75.5       61.7         17.1                                        Market Capitalization (M)                                                                               27631.2
Tot Debt/Capital          0.3          0.1        0.3          0.3                                        Cash and ST Investments (M)                                                                            #N/A N/A
Tot Debt/Equity           0.4          0.2        0.5          0.4                                        Total Debt (M)                                                                                         #N/A N/A
Eff Tax Rate %          24.3          22.8       25.9         31.8                                        Preferred Equity (M)                                                                                         0.0
                                                                                                          LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M)                                                                    0.0
                                                                                                          Investments (M)                                                                                              0.0
                                                                                                          Enterprise Value (M)



                                                                                Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings
MMC Norilsk Nickel OJSC
Target price in USD
Broker Recommendation




                                                              Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price




                                                                                                                                                                    Price
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Brokers' Target Price
                                                                                                                                                               25           30
                        100%                                                                                                   6%           5%       5%
                                  7%        7%       7%         6%        6%        7%        7%
                                                                                                       13%        18%                                                       25
                        80%                                                                                                                                    20
                                                                                                                                                    37%                     20
                                                                                                                              44%          42%
                                                                                                                  24%
                                                                                                       40%                                                                  15
                        60%                                                        67%        64%                                                              15
                                                                         75%                                                                                                10
                                                               81%
                                  87%       87%      87%

                        40%                                                                                                                                    10             5

                                                                                                                  59%                               58%                       0
                                                                                                                              50%          53%




                                                                                                                                                                                                 Morgan Stanley




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Barclays
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    Otkritie Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                   Gazprombank




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       UFS-Finance Investment




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Credit Suisse




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         JPMorgan
                                                                                                                                                                                                                  HSBC




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                        Sberbank CIB




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                Societe Generale




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     BCS




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                            Aton LLC
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              VTB Capital




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          TKB Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Alfa-Bank




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   Goldman Sachs




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Renaissance Capital
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         Deutsche Bank
                                                                                                       47%
                        20%                                                                                                                                    5
                                                                                   27%        29%




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Company
                                                                         19%
                                                               13%
                                  7%        7%       7%
                         0%                                                                                                                                    0
                                 avr.12    mai.12   juin.12   juil.12   août.12   sept.12    oct.12   nov.12     déc.12      janv.13     févr.13   mars.13
                                                                        Buy        Hold        Sell      Price            Target Price

                               Date                    Buy               Hold               Sell                    Date               Price Target Price                   Broker                                                                   Analyst                                                                                       Recommendation                                                    Target                               Date
                               29-Mar-13               58%               37%                 5%                  24-Apr-13               16.05         19.82                Gazprombank                                                              NATALIA SHEVELEVA                                                                                                   overweight                                        20.00                       24-Apr-13
                               28-Feb-13               53%               42%                 5%                  23-Apr-13               15.53         19.82                Morgan Stanley                                                           DMITRIY KOLOMYTSYN                                                                                                Underwt/In-Line                                     11.00                       23-Apr-13
                               31-Jan-13               50%               44%                 6%                  22-Apr-13               15.78         20.55                HSBC                                                                     VLADIMIR ZHUKOV                                                                                                       neutral                                         16.50                       21-Apr-13
                               31-Dec-12               59%               24%                18%                  19-Apr-13               15.74         20.84                Deutsche Bank                                                            ERIK DANEMAR                                                                                                           hold                                           20.00                       19-Apr-13
                               30-Nov-12               47%               40%                13%                  18-Apr-13               15.50         20.84                Alfa-Bank                                                                BARRY EHRLICH                                                                                                      equalweight                                        17.30                       16-Apr-13
                               31-Oct-12               29%               64%                 7%                  17-Apr-13               15.25         20.84                Sberbank CIB                                                             MIKHAIL STISKIN                                                                                                        hold                                           18.32                       16-Apr-13
                               28-Sep-12               27%               67%                 7%                  16-Apr-13               15.68         21.18                UFS-Finance Investment Company                                           ILYA BALAKIREV                                                                                                         buy                                            23.60                       16-Apr-13
                               31-Aug-12               19%               75%                 6%                  15-Apr-13               15.89         21.47                Societe Generale                                                         ABHISHEK SHUKLA                                                                                                        buy                                            23.00                       15-Apr-13
                               31-Jul-12               13%               81%                 6%                  12-Apr-13               16.57         21.58                Credit Suisse                                                            SEMYON MIRONOV                                                                                                      outperform                                        19.60                        3-Apr-13
                               29-Jun-12                7%               87%                 7%                  11-Apr-13               16.76         21.58                Goldman Sachs                                                            YULIA CHEKUNAEVA                                                                                                  neutral/neutral                                     21.00                       15-Mar-13
                               31-May-12                7%               87%                 7%                  10-Apr-13               17.17         21.48                Otkritie Capital                                                         DENIS GABRIELIK                                                                                                        buy                                            19.70                       15-Mar-13
                               30-Apr-12                7%               87%                 7%                   9-Apr-13               17.07         21.48                JPMorgan                                                                 YURIY A VLASOV                                                                                                        neutral                                         19.10                       21-Feb-13
                                                                                                                  8-Apr-13               16.59         21.60                Barclays                                                                 VLADIMIR SERGIEVSKIY                                                                                                overweight                                        22.50                       14-Feb-13
                                                                                                                  5-Apr-13               16.48         21.60                Renaissance Capital                                                      BORIS KRASNOJENOV                                                                                                      buy                                            23.00                       28-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  4-Apr-13               16.60         21.60                BCS                                                                      KIRILL CHUYKO                                                                                                          buy                                            23.00                       18-Jan-13
                                                                                                                  3-Apr-13               16.73         21.60                VTB Capital                                                              NIKOLAY SOSNOVSKIY                                                                                                     hold                                           20.00                       21-Dec-12
                                                                                                                  2-Apr-13               16.85         21.81                Aton LLC                                                                 DINNUR GALIKHANOV                                                                                                      sell                                           14.60                        4-Dec-12
                                                                                                                  1-Apr-13               16.89         21.81                TKB Capital                                                              MARIA KALVARSKAIA                                                                                                      buy                                            27.00                       11-Jan-11
                                                                                                                 29-Mar-13               16.89         21.81
                                                                                                                 28-Mar-13               16.89         21.81
                                                                                                                 27-Mar-13               16.65         21.81
                                                                                                                 26-Mar-13               16.51         21.81
                                                                                                                 25-Mar-13               16.27         21.72
                                                                                                                 22-Mar-13               16.71         21.72
                                                                                                                 21-Mar-13               16.76         21.59
                                                                                                                 20-Mar-13               16.74         21.59
                                                                                                                 19-Mar-13               16.59         21.70
                                                                                                                 18-Mar-13               16.65         21.70
                                                                                                                 15-Mar-13               17.21         21.70
                                                                                                                 14-Mar-13               17.35         21.57

                                                                                                             Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
24.04.2013



MMC Norilsk Nickel OJSC
                                                                                Company Analysis - Ownership
                                                                                       Ownership Type
Ownership Statistics                                                                                                                    Geographic Ownership Distribution                      Geographic Ownership
                                                                                              1%
Shares Outstanding (M)         #N/A Field Not Applicable                                                                                Others                                   100.00%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          0% 0% 0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                               0%
Float                                                                                                                                                                             0.00%                  0%       0%
Short Interest (M)                                                                                                                                                                0.00%
Short Interest as % of Float                                                                                                                                                      0.00%
Days to Cover Shorts                                                                                                                                                              0.00%
Institutional Ownership                                                                                                                                                           0.00%
Retail Ownership                                                                                                                                                                  0.00%
Insider Ownership                                                                                                                       Others                                    0.00%

                                                                                                                                        Institutional Ownership Distribution
                                                                                                                                        Others                                   100.00%                     100%
                                                                                                                                                                                  0.00%
                                                                                                                                                                                  0.00%
                                                             Institutional Ownership      Retail Ownership   Insider Ownership                                                    0.00%
Pricing data is in USD                                                                                                                  Others                                    0.00%         Others                   Others
Top 20 Owners:                  TOP 20 ALL

                                                                                                                                                                                               Institutional Ownership
Holder Name                                      Position   Position Change                       Market Value         % of Ownership   Report Date                  Source       Country
VANGUARD GROUP INC                             8'318'711           -446'840                        133'515'312              0.48%                      31.12.2012   MF-AGG     UNITED STATES              0%
                                                                                                                                                                                                          0%    0%
BARING INTERNATIONAL                           8'137'574          8'137'574                        130'608'063              0.47%                      31.12.2012     13F         BRITAIN                0%
BNP PARIBAS INV PART                           5'129'290          1'274'754                         82'325'105              0.30%                      28.02.2013   ULT-AGG       FRANCE
FRANKLIN RESOURCES                             5'073'960             75'900                         81'437'058              0.29%                      31.12.2012   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
BARING ASSET MANAGEM                           4'797'930            944'039                         77'006'777              0.28%                      31.12.2012   MF-AGG       IRELAND
JP MORGAN                                      4'561'641             25'615                         73'214'338              0.26%                      28.02.2013   ULT-AGG
VAN ECK ASSOCIATES C                           4'434'338             52'940                         71'171'125              0.26%                      23.04.2013   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
BLACKROCK                                      4'352'197            432'194                         69'852'762              0.25%                      22.04.2013   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
DWS INVESTMENT SA                              3'536'560            300'000                         56'761'788              0.21%                      28.02.2013   MF-AGG     LUXEMBOURG
GRANTHAM MAYO VAN OT                           3'337'724                   0                        53'570'470              0.19%                      31.05.2012   MF-AGG     UNITED STATES                 100%
ALLIANZ ASSET MANAGE                           2'533'017            903'464                         40'654'923              0.15%                      31.03.2013   ULT-AGG      GERMANY
ALLIANCE BERNSTEIN                             2'528'259            900'371                         40'578'557              0.15%                      28.02.2013   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
TEMPLETON INVESTMENT                           2'453'764                   0                        39'382'912              0.14%                      31.12.2012   MF-AGG        BRITAIN
SEB                                            2'103'863               7'738                        33'767'001              0.12%                      31.12.2012   ULT-AGG
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Others           Others
PICTET CONSEIL EN IN                           1'655'244            819'149                         26'566'666              0.10%                      31.01.2013   MF-AGG     LUXEMBOURG
CARNEGIE FONDER AB/S                           1'573'000                   0                        25'246'650              0.09%                      28.02.2013   MF-AGG       SWEDEN
THAMES RIVER CAPITAL                           1'504'605                   0                        24'148'910              0.09%                      30.09.2012   MF-AGG        BRITAIN
STATE STREET                                   1'373'744              -1'964                        22'048'591              0.08%                      23.04.2013   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL                            1'179'718            451'070                         18'934'474              0.07%                      31.03.2013   ULT-AGG    UNITED STATES
PICTET & CIE                                   1'157'555          1'157'555                         18'578'758              0.07%                      31.01.2013   MF-AGG     SWITZERLAND
Top 5 Insiders:


Holder Name                                      Position   Position Change                       Market Value         % of Ownership   Report Date                  Source




                                                                                 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials I/IV
MMC Norilsk Nickel OJSC
Financial information is in USD (M)                                                                                                                                                Equivalent Estimates
Periodicity:             Fiscal Year                 12/02         12/03    12/04      12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10    12/11    12/12    12/13E      12/14E        12/15E
Income Statement
Revenue                                               3'133        5'201    7'033       7'169      11'550       17'119      13'980        8'542      12'775   14'122   12'065   12'301      12'833        13'838
  - Cost of Goods Sold                                1'774        2'873    3'179       2'994       3'158        5'882       7'626        4'177       4'883    5'793    6'145

Gross Income                                          1'360        2'328    3'854       4'175       8'392       11'237       6'354        4'365       7'892    8'329    5'920    5'912       6'201         6'386
  - Selling, General & Admin Expenses                   568          751      866         841       1'090        3'878       1'869          830       1'325    1'851    1'777
          (Research & Dev Costs)                                               40          14          20           18          19

Operating Income                                        792        1'577    2'988       3'334       7'302        7'359       4'485        3'535       6'567    6'478    4'143    4'415       4'518         4'876
  - Interest Expense                                    109           40       68          83          67          284         397          128          87      105      242
  - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains)                     -17          -15       12          25         -65         -146         397          141          22      334     -214
  - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains)                   -174          213      355         110         523         -514       3'964          -40        -324      393      972

Pretax Income                                          874         1'339    2'553       3'116       6'777        7'735        -273        3'306       6'782    5'646    3'143    3'933       4'198         4'425
  - Income Tax Expense                                 290           493      696         838       1'805        2'459         282          802       1'548    1'460    1'000

Income Before XO Items                                 584           846    1'857       2'278       4'972        5'276        -555        2'504       5'234    4'186    2'143
   - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax                       0             0        0         -74        -993            0           0         -147       2'145      560        0
   - Minority Interests                                 -8           -16      -21          -3         -24          -51        -106           51        -209       22      -27

Diluted EPS Before XO Items

Net Income Adjusted*                                   592           862    1'878       2'281       4'996        5'327       4'279        2'651       5'442    4'164    3'119    3'071       3'269         3'610
EPS Adjusted                                                                                                                                                                     1.83        1.96          2.21
Dividends Per Share                                                                                                                                                              1.50        1.66          1.41
        Payout Ratio %                                24.6          33.6    16.4        12.3          7.7        14.9                     48.2        20.7                       0.82        0.85          0.64

Total Shares Outstanding
Diluted Shares Outstanding

EBITDA                                                1'215        2'029    3'528       3'912       7'888        8'296       5'788        4'352       7'370    7'240    4'932    5'202       5'487         5'983

*Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges.




                                                                             Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials II/IV
Periodicity:                               12/02       12/03    12/04       12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10    12/11    12/12    12/13E   12/14E   12/15E
Balance Sheet
Total Current Assets                   3265.99906 3701.64305     3967        5553        5205        12510        7059         8408       12974     6569     6814
  + Cash & Near Cash Items                     262        958    1'346        922        2'178        4'008       1'995        3'632       5'405    1'627    1'037
  + Short Term Investments                      94        136
  + Accounts & Notes Receivable                212        361      290         278         534          661         278          683         995      970      697
  + Inventories                              1'826      1'503    1'442       1'301       1'471        2'108       1'959        1'990       2'246    2'623    3'197
  + Other Current Assets                       873        744      889       3'052       1'022        5'733       2'827        2'103       4'328    1'349    1'883

Total Long-Term Assets                      6'424       7'633    9'665       9'177      11'074       23'186      13'764      14'352       10'935   12'343   14'160
  + Long Term Investments                     104         163    1'407         690       2'615        2'982         523
         Gross Fixed Assets                 6'731       8'190    9'276       8'985      10'892       19'432      18'071      18'548       19'730   19'477   23'100
         Accumulated Depreciation             415         920    1'424       1'840       2'758        4'451       7'334       7'531       10'577    9'892   11'173
  + Net Fixed Assets                        6'315       7'270    7'852       7'145       8'134       14'981      10'737      11'017        9'153    9'585   11'927
  + Other Long Term Assets                      4         199      406       1'342         325        5'223       2'504       3'335        1'782    2'758    2'233

Total Current Liabilities                   1'468       1'638    1'383       1'594       1'251        6'434       2'126        4'112       2'697    3'830    3'969
  + Accounts Payable                          211         156      151         170         191          352         281          243         374      346      449
  + Short Term Borrowings                     453         267      552         357         158        3'973         872        2'986       1'256    2'754    2'526
  + Other Short Term Liabilities              804       1'215      680       1'067         902        2'109         973          883       1'067      730      994

Total Long Term Liabilities                  956        1'088    1'606       1'739       1'892        7'441       6'912        3'893       3'238    3'860    4'065
  + Long Term Borrowings                     146          182      657         635         632        4'103       5'568        2'378       1'575    2'401    2'497
  + Other Long Term Borrowings               810          906      949       1'104       1'260        3'338       1'344        1'515       1'663    1'459    1'568

Total Liabilities                           2'425       2'726    2'989       3'333       3'143       13'875       9'038       8'005        5'935    7'690    8'034
  + Long Preferred Equity                       0           0        0           0           0            0           0           0            0        0        0
  + Minority Interest                         101         346      366         334         319        2'318       1'054       1'080          598      120      109
  + Share Capital & APIC                      688         751      792           9         619        1'398       1'398       1'398        1'519    1'519    1'519
  + Retained Earnings & Other Equity        6'476       7'511    9'485      11'054      12'198       18'105       9'333      12'277       15'857    9'583   11'312

Total Shareholders Equity                   7'265       8'609   10'643      11'397      13'136       21'821      11'785      14'755       17'974   11'222   12'940

Total Liabilities & Equity                  9'690      11'335   13'632      14'730      16'279       35'696      20'823      22'760       23'909   18'912   20'974

Book Value Per Share                                                                                                                                                   8.78     8.90     9.41
  Tangible Book Value Per Share




                                                                  Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials III/IV
Periodicity:                           12/02   12/03   12/04      12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10    12/11    12/12    12/13E   12/14E   12/15E
Cash Flows
Net Income                               592    862     1'878      2'355       5'989        5'327        -449        2'600      3'298    3'604    2'170     2'763    2'984    3'419
  + Depreciation & Amortization          423    451       540        578         586          937       1'303          817        803      762      789
  + Other Non-Cash Adjustments          -276    133    -3'412     -3'913        -655        1'026        -309          586      1'826      996    1'071
  + Changes in Non-Cash Capital         -127    208     3'498      3'974        -273           75         370         -560       -410     -658     -595

Cash From Operating Activities           611   1'655    2'504      2'994       5'647        7'365         915        3'443       5'517    4'704    3'435
  + Disposal of Fixed Assets               4      21       57         38          46           88          88           38          33       23       10
  + Capital Expenditures                -353    -440     -618       -773        -743       -1'140      -2'360       -1'061      -1'728   -2'201   -2'692   -2'441   -2'324   -2'216
  + Increase in Investments              -40    -142        0          0
  + Decrease in Investments              191       5        0          0
  + Other Investing Activities          -271     -60   -1'467       -720       1'075      -11'732       2'730         513         249      300     -233

Cash From Investing Activities          -470    -617   -2'028     -1'455          378     -12'784         458        -510       -1'446   -1'878   -2'915
  + Dividends Paid                      -170    -147     -618       -201       -1'079        -849      -1'670                   -1'208   -1'234     -960
  + Change in Short Term Borrowings     -660    -292      -36         85         -482
  + Increase in Long Term Borrowings     228     175      872        112                   10'183       3'723          113         628    3'694    2'478
  + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings     -20    -213     -197       -417         -11       -3'915      -5'240       -1'193      -3'048   -1'351   -2'666
  + Increase in Capital Stocks             0       0        0          0                                                         1'705    1'246        0
  + Decrease in Capital Stocks             0       0        0     -1'457         -999                                  -29               -8'995        0
  + Other Financing Activities          -109      16       47        -64       -2'198       1'838      -2'617          -78       -111        36       38

Cash From Financing Activities          -731    -461      68      -1'942       -4'769       7'257      -5'804       -1'187      -2'034   -6'604   -1'110

Net Changes in Cash                     -590    577      544        -403       1'256        1'838      -4'431        1'746      2'037    -3'778    -590

Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX)              258    1'214   1'886       2'221       4'904        6'225      -1'445        2'382      3'789    2'503      743

Free Cash Flow To Firm                   331   1'239   1'935       2'282       4'953        6'419                    2'479      3'856    2'581      908
Free Cash Flow To Equity                -190     905   2'582       2'039       4'457       12'581      -2'874        1'340      1'402    4'869      565
Free Cash Flow per Share




                                                        Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV
Periodicity:                         12/02   12/03   12/04      12/05        12/06       12/07        12/08       12/09       12/10   12/11   12/12   12/13E   12/14E   12/15E
Ratio Analysis

Valuation Ratios
  Price Earnings                                                                                                                                        8.8x     8.2x     7.3x
  EV to EBIT                                                                               7.7x        3.8x         8.4x       6.5x    5.1x    8.0x
  EV to EBITDA                                                                             6.8x        3.0x         6.8x       5.8x    4.6x    6.8x
  Price to Sales                                                                                                                                        2.2x     2.2x     2.0x
  Price to Book                                                                                                                                         1.8x     1.8x     1.7x
  Dividend Yield                                                                                                                                       9.3%    10.3%     8.8%

Profitability Ratios
  Gross Margin                       43.4%   44.8%   54.8%      58.2%        72.7%       65.6%        45.5%       51.1%       61.8%   59.0%   49.1%   48.1%    48.3%    46.2%
  EBITDA Margin                      38.8%   39.0%   50.2%      54.6%        68.3%       48.5%        41.4%       50.9%       57.7%   51.3%   40.9%   42.3%    42.8%    43.2%
  Operating Margin                   25.3%   30.3%   42.5%      46.5%        63.2%       43.0%        32.1%       41.4%       51.4%   45.9%   34.3%   35.9%    35.2%    35.2%
  Profit Margin                      18.9%   16.6%   26.7%      32.8%        51.9%       31.1%        -3.2%       30.4%       25.8%   25.5%   18.0%   25.0%    25.5%    26.1%
  Return on Assets                    6.1%    8.2%   15.0%      16.6%        38.6%       20.5%        -1.6%       11.9%       14.1%   16.8%   10.9%   17.5%    15.5%    18.8%
  Return on Equity                    8.9%   11.2%   20.3%      22.1%        50.2%       33.0%        -3.0%       21.3%       21.2%   25.3%   18.1%   21.5%    22.8%    23.4%

Leverage & Coverage Ratios
  Current Ratio                       2.22    2.26    2.87        3.48        4.16         1.94        3.32        2.04        4.81    1.72    1.72
  Quick Ratio                         0.39    0.89    1.18        0.75        2.17         0.73        1.07        1.05        2.37    0.68    0.44
  Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I)    7.27   39.40   43.94       40.17      108.99        25.91       11.30       27.62       75.48   61.70   17.12
  Tot Debt/Capital                    0.08    0.05    0.10        0.08        0.06         0.27        0.35        0.27        0.14    0.31    0.28
  Tot Debt/Equity                     0.08    0.05    0.11        0.09        0.06         0.37        0.55        0.36        0.16    0.46    0.39

Others
  Asset Turnover                      0.32    0.50    0.56        0.51        0.74         0.66        0.49        0.39        0.55    0.66    0.60
  Accounts Receivable Turnover       14.07   18.41   21.62       25.24       28.45        28.65       29.78       17.78       15.23   14.37   14.48
  Accounts Payable Turnover           6.63   13.05   20.31       17.78       18.44        24.01       23.62       16.06       16.66   17.14   16.90
  Inventory Turnover                  0.95    1.72    2.16        2.18        2.28         3.29        3.75        2.12        2.31    2.38    2.11

  Effective Tax Rate                 33.1%   36.8%   27.3%      26.9%        26.6%       31.8%                    24.3%       22.8%   25.9%   31.8%




                                                      Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
Company Analysis - Peers Comparision
                                         MMC NORILSK                                                              POLYUS GOLD                                                                                                        IMPALA                                        TECK RESOURCES-
                                                            EVRAZ PLC        BHP BILLITON LTD UNITED CO RUSAL                        XSTRATA PLC       ANGLO AMER PLC      LONMIN PLC         MAGNITOGORSK         SEVERSTAL                        NLMK OAO        MECHEL                            RIO TINTO LTD
                                            ADR                                                                       OJSC                                                                                                          PLATINUM                                              B

Latest Fiscal Year:                            12/2012          12/2012              06/2012         12/2012            12/2012           12/2012              12/2012           09/2012               12/2012         12/2012          06/2012         12/2012        12/2012            12/2012           12/2012
52-Week High                                      20.44           384.30                39.34             5.70          1'310.00          1'201.00             2'440.00            568.60                 12.70          470.00        17'600.00           69.86         264.00              39.90             72.30
52-Week High Date                            25.01.2013       30.04.2012           20.02.2013      26.04.2012         01.02.2013        01.02.2013           02.05.2012        02.05.2012            02.05.2012      14.09.2012       15.01.2013      17.09.2012     27.04.2012         10.01.2013        14.02.2013
52-Week Low                                       13.96           151.10                30.09             3.81            787.60            760.47             1'540.00            226.96                   6.70         233.00        10'845.00           45.51         111.30              24.10             48.37
52-Week Low Date                             01.06.2012       18.04.2013           12.07.2012      02.04.2013         27.11.2012        27.06.2012           18.04.2013        09.11.2012            15.04.2013      17.04.2013       15.04.2013      04.04.2013     23.04.2013         23.04.2013        30.08.2012
Daily Volume                                  3'278'994        3'241'562           16'783'219       4'595'000             15'793         4'406'533            3'018'744         1'024'259            11'494'300       1'967'720        1'045'689       4'623'300        693'255          9'034'012         6'203'716
  Current Price (4/dd/yy)                        16.05            166.30               31.70             3.94            918.00            989.80             1'616.50             267.60                  7.20         255.80        12'014.00           54.09         119.70               25.60             54.68
  52-Week High % Change                          -21.5%           -56.7%              -19.4%           -30.9%            -29.9%             -17.6%               -33.8%            -52.9%               -43.3%           -45.6%          -31.7%           -22.6%        -54.7%              -35.8%            -24.4%
  52-Week Low % Change                            15.0%            10.1%                5.4%             3.4%             16.6%              30.2%                 5.0%             17.9%                 7.5%             9.8%           10.8%            18.9%          7.5%                6.2%             13.0%
Total Common Shares (M)                                -         1'339.9             5'297.6         15'193.0           3'032.2            3'002.7              1'391.0             381.8             11'006.0            837.7           615.8          5'993.2         416.3               582.3           1'847.0
  Market Capitalization                        27'631             2'449             158'638           59'860           174'996             29'721              22'529              1'521               80'455          214'288          75'954         324'174         49'828              14'926            86'882
Total Debt                                      5'023.0          8'169.0            28'330.0         11'334.0             348.3           17'067.0            16'760.0              736.0               3'867.0         5'709.5         3'609.0          4'631.7       9'870.1             7'195.0          26'819.0
Preferred Stock                                     -                -                   -                -                 -                  -                   -                  -                     -               -               -                -            25.3                 -                 -
Minority Interest                                 109.0            200.0             1'215.0              -               282.6            2'339.0             6'130.0              257.0                 155.0            20.8         2'307.0            (32.9)        362.3               176.0          11'156.0
Cash and Equivalents                            1'037.0          1'320.0             4'781.0            490.0           1'038.3            1'983.0             9'094.0              315.0                 424.0         1'750.1         1'193.0          1'058.2         295.0             3'267.0           7'320.0
   Enterprise Value                                     -        10'788             194'666           18'554             5'152             62'800              48'193              3'001                 6'154          10'788          80'872          13'839         11'546              19'514           119'939
                                                                                                                                                          Valuation
Total Revenue                      LFY        12'065.0          14'726.0            72'226.0         10'891.0           2'848.1           31'618.0            28'761.0            1'614.0              9'328.0         14'103.7        27'593.0        12'156.6       11'274.9            10'343.0          50'967.0
                                  LTM         12'065.0          14'726.0            66'950.0         10'891.0           2'028.1           31'618.0            28'761.0            1'614.0              9'328.0         14'103.7        27'342.0        12'156.6       11'274.9            10'126.0          50'967.0
                                 CY+1         12'301.2          14'735.6            67'569.0         11'064.4                  -          33'840.4            34'519.9            1'621.9              9'462.2         14'606.9        32'481.6        12'518.1       11'482.4             9'828.8          55'585.9
                                 CY+2         12'832.7          15'475.0            73'914.3         11'619.3                  -          35'525.1            36'176.5            1'995.0             10'023.3         15'369.4        37'931.1        13'450.3       11'466.8            10'752.2          61'445.4
EV/Total Revenue                   LFY             2.8x              0.9x                3.3x             1.9x              4.1x                2.2x               2.0x               1.6x                  0.8x            1.0x            3.9x            1.3x           1.1x                2.1x              3.1x
                                  LTM              2.8x              0.9x                3.5x             1.9x              6.7x                2.2x               2.0x               1.6x                  0.8x            1.0x            3.9x            1.3x           1.1x                2.1x              3.1x
                                 CY+1              2.5x              0.7x                2.9x             1.6x                  -               1.8x               1.5x               1.5x                  0.6x            0.7x            2.5x            1.1x           1.0x                2.0x              2.2x
                                 CY+2              2.5x              0.7x                2.6x             1.5x                  -               1.7x               1.4x               1.2x                  0.6x            0.7x            2.2x            1.0x           1.0x                1.8x              1.9x
EBITDA                             LFY         4'932.0           1'599.0            33'421.0          1'223.0           1'426.1            8'122.0             7'682.0              776.0              1'218.0          2'127.4         7'300.0         1'900.5          462.4             3'736.0          15'486.0
                                  LTM          4'932.0           1'599.0            27'133.0          1'223.0             673.9            8'122.0             7'682.0              776.0              1'218.0          2'127.4         5'736.0         1'900.5          462.4             3'508.0          15'486.0
                                 CY+1          5'201.9           2'102.6            28'726.6          1'221.2                  -           9'266.4             9'657.0              182.5              1'317.7          2'252.8         6'759.4         2'044.6        1'538.3             3'245.5          21'006.8
                                 CY+2          5'487.1           2'415.1            33'552.1          1'417.8                  -          10'563.3            10'177.3              418.0              1'485.8          2'403.5         8'936.5         2'322.0        1'510.4             3'945.0          23'251.3
EV/EBITDA                          LFY             6.8x              7.9x                7.1x            16.7x              8.2x                8.5x               7.4x               3.2x                  6.1x            6.7x           14.6x            8.2x          27.6x                5.7x             10.2x
                                  LTM              6.8x              7.9x                8.7x            16.7x             17.4x                8.5x               7.4x               3.2x                  6.1x            6.7x           18.6x            8.2x          27.6x                6.0x             10.2x
                                 CY+1              6.0x              5.0x                6.7x            14.8x                  -               6.7x               5.3x              13.1x                  4.6x            4.8x           12.0x            6.7x           7.4x                6.1x              5.7x
                                 CY+2              5.8x              4.2x                5.7x            12.3x                  -               5.7x               5.1x               5.7x                  3.9x            4.3x            9.2x            5.8x           7.4x                5.0x              5.0x
EPS                                LFY                 -            -0.36                3.61             0.02                  -              1.26                2.59               0.36                     -                -           6.85                -              -               2.59              4.06
                                  LTM                  -            -0.23                1.83            -0.02              2.19               0.40               -1.13              -1.08                -0.01             0.85            2.40            0.10          -3.93                2.33             -1.63
                                 CY+1             1.83              0.16                2.53             0.06                  -              1.21                2.17               0.05                 0.00             1.00            5.24            0.15          (0.62)               2.14              5.72
                                 CY+2             1.96              0.31                3.05             0.07                  -              1.45                2.61               0.26                 0.02             1.10            8.48            0.18           0.11                2.79              6.62
P/E                                LFY                 -                 -              17.9x                 -            13.3x              37.8x                    -                  -                    -            9.5x           50.1x           17.3x               -              11.0x                  -
                                  LTM                  -                 -              11.7x                 -                 -             12.0x                9.8x              11.4x                     -                -          50.0x                -              -              11.0x                  -
                                 CY+1              8.8x             15.9x               12.9x             9.1x                  -             12.4x               11.4x              90.8x                57.2x             8.2x           22.9x           11.5x               -              12.0x              9.8x
                                 CY+2              8.2x              8.1x               10.7x             7.0x                  -             10.4x                9.5x              15.5x                12.7x             7.4x           14.2x            9.4x          33.7x                9.2x              8.5x
Revenue Growth                  1 Year         (14.6%)           (10.2%)                0.7%          (11.4%)             18.5%              (6.7%)              (5.9%)           (19.0%)                  0.2%         (10.8%)         (16.7%)            3.6%        (10.1%)             (10.2%)           (15.8%)
                                5 Year           (4.4%)                  -              6.8%                  -           28.0%                3.5%              13.5%              (1.6%)                 2.6%           17.8%            0.9%            6.9%           9.2%                9.2%             11.2%
EBITDA Growth                   1 Year         (31.9%)           (42.8%)             (12.1%)          (55.7%)             38.9%            (30.3%)             (32.5%)              89.7%                (2.7%)         (40.6%)         (36.9%)         (15.7%)        (81.2%)             (30.4%)           (41.1%)
                                5 Year           (9.9%)                  -              8.0%          (23.3%)             47.8%              (5.7%)              (5.8%)             (2.5%)             (12.0%)          (10.3%)         (13.0%)         (11.0%)        (22.8%)                5.7%              8.1%
EBITDA Margin                     LTM            40.9%             10.9%               40.5%            11.2%             38.5%              25.7%               26.7%              48.1%                13.1%            15.1%           21.0%           15.6%           4.1%               34.6%             30.4%
                                 CY+1            42.3%             14.3%               42.5%            11.0%                   -            27.4%               28.0%              11.2%                13.9%            15.4%           20.8%           16.3%          13.4%               33.0%             37.8%
                                 CY+2            42.8%             15.6%               45.4%            12.2%                   -            29.7%               28.1%              21.0%                14.8%            15.6%           23.6%           17.3%          13.2%               36.7%             37.8%
                                                                                                                                                Leverage/Coverage Ratios
Total Debt / Equity %                            39.1%            157.9%              43.0%            103.8%              8.3%             38.4%                44.5%             29.6%                 40.0%           79.4%              7.2%          41.6%         313.1%              40.4%             57.2%
Total Debt / Capital %                           28.0%             60.3%              29.7%             50.9%              7.2%             26.7%                27.7%             21.1%                 28.3%           44.2%              6.4%          29.5%          73.6%              28.6%             31.6%
Total Debt / EBITDA                              1.018x            5.109x             1.308x            9.267x           0.302x             2.101x               2.182x            0.948x                3.175x          2.684x           0.720x          2.437x        21.346x             2.094x            1.732x
Net Debt / EBITDA                                0.808x            4.283x             1.120x            8.867x          -0.446x             1.857x               0.998x            0.543x                2.827x          1.861x           0.447x          1.880x        20.708x             1.253x            1.259x
EBITDA / Int. Expense                           20.380x            2.479x            44.266x            1.637x          62.969x            20.458x               7.080x           17.244x                5.462x          4.825x          21.283x         27.760x         0.691x             6.026x           14.848x
                                                                                                                                                        Credit Ratings
S&P LT Credit Rating                              BBB-                  -                  A+                -                  -        BBB+ *-                   BBB                   -                  NR             BB+                 -           BBB-               -               BBB                 A-
S&P LT Credit Rating Date                    26.09.2011                  -         15.11.2010                 -                  -      29.11.2012           04.04.2013                   -          20.01.2010      21.06.2012                 -     23.07.2008               -        16.04.2010        18.04.2011
Moody's LT Credit Rating                              -                 -               (P)A1                -                  -                -                Baa1                   -                    -            Ba1                 -               -              -              Baa2                  -
Moody's LT Credit Rating Date                          -                 -         15.11.2010                 -                  -                -          23.02.2009                   -                    -     07.06.2012                 -               -              -        17.11.2010                  -



                                                                                                                             Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |

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Financial analysis mining and metallurgical company norilsk nickel ojsc or gmk norilsk nickel is a producer of base and precious metals. the company's main products are nickel and palladium

  • 1. 24.04.2013 Company Analysis - Overview Mining and Metallurgical Company Norilsk Nickel OJSC or GMK Norilsk Nickel is a Ticker: MNOD LI MMC Norilsk Nickel OJSC Benchmark: producer of base and precious metals. The Company's main products are nickel and Currency: London Intl: MNOD, Currency: USD FTSE 100 INDEX (UKX) palladium. MMC Norilsk Nickel also produces copper, cobalt, platinum, gold, silver and other precious metals. MMC Norilsk Nickel is headquartered in Moscow with its main Sector: Materials Industry: Metals & Mining Year: production facilities in Taimyr and Kola peninsula. Telephone 7-495-787-76-67 Revenue (M) 12'065 Business Segments in USD Sales (M) Geographic Segments in USD Sales (M) Website www.nornik.ru No of Employees #N/A N/A Mining and Metallurgy 11075 Europe 6066 Address 22 Voznesensky pereulok Moscow, 115230 Russian Federation Other 990 Asia 2750 Share Price Performance in USD Energy and Utilities North America 1226 Price 16.05 1M Return -3.9% Russian Federation 1015 52 Week High 20.44 6M Return 4.0% Adjustments 1004 52 Week Low 13.96 52 Wk Return -3.8% Other 4 52 Wk Beta 1.11 YTD Return -12.9% Nickel Credit Ratings Bloomberg - 8% 8% 0% S&P BBB- Date 26.09.2011 Outlook NEG Moody's - Date 11.07.2012 Outlook STABLE 8% Fitch BB+ Date 19.08.2011 Outlook STABLE Valuation Ratios 10% 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E 51% P/E - - - - 8.8x 8.2x 7.3x EV/EBIT 8.4x 6.5x 5.1x 8.0x - - - EV/EBITDA 6.8x 5.8x 4.6x 6.8x - - - P/S - - - - 2.2x 2.2x 2.0x P/B - - - - 1.8x 1.8x 1.7x 23% Div Yield - - - - 9.3% 10.3% 8.8% 92% Profitability Ratios % 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Gross Margin 51.1 61.8 59.0 49.1 48.1 48.3 46.2 Europe EBITDA Margin 50.9 57.7 51.3 40.9 42.3 42.8 43.2 Asia Operating Margin 41.4 51.4 45.9 34.3 35.9 35.2 35.2 North America Mining and Metallurgy Other Profit Margin 30.4 25.8 25.5 18.0 25.0 25.5 26.1 Russian Federation Return on Assets 11.9 14.1 16.8 10.9 17.5 15.5 18.8 Adjustments Return on Equity 21.3 21.2 25.3 18.1 21.5 22.8 23.4 Other Leverage and Coverage Ratios 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 Current Ratio 2.0 4.8 1.7 1.7 Current Capitalization in USD Quick Ratio 1.0 2.4 0.7 0.4 Common Shares Outstanding (M) #N/A Field Not Applicable EBIT/Interest 27.6 75.5 61.7 17.1 Market Capitalization (M) 27631.2 Tot Debt/Capital 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.3 Cash and ST Investments (M) #N/A N/A Tot Debt/Equity 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 Total Debt (M) #N/A N/A Eff Tax Rate % 24.3 22.8 25.9 31.8 Preferred Equity (M) 0.0 LT Investments in Affiliate Companies (M) 0.0 Investments (M) 0.0 Enterprise Value (M) Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 2. Company Analysis - Analysts Ratings MMC Norilsk Nickel OJSC Target price in USD Broker Recommendation Buy and Sell Recommendations vs Price and Target Price Price Brokers' Target Price 25 30 100% 6% 5% 5% 7% 7% 7% 6% 6% 7% 7% 13% 18% 25 80% 20 37% 20 44% 42% 24% 40% 15 60% 67% 64% 15 75% 10 81% 87% 87% 87% 40% 10 5 59% 58% 0 50% 53% Morgan Stanley Barclays Otkritie Capital Gazprombank UFS-Finance Investment Credit Suisse JPMorgan HSBC Sberbank CIB Societe Generale BCS Aton LLC VTB Capital TKB Capital Alfa-Bank Goldman Sachs Renaissance Capital Deutsche Bank 47% 20% 5 27% 29% Company 19% 13% 7% 7% 7% 0% 0 avr.12 mai.12 juin.12 juil.12 août.12 sept.12 oct.12 nov.12 déc.12 janv.13 févr.13 mars.13 Buy Hold Sell Price Target Price Date Buy Hold Sell Date Price Target Price Broker Analyst Recommendation Target Date 29-Mar-13 58% 37% 5% 24-Apr-13 16.05 19.82 Gazprombank NATALIA SHEVELEVA overweight 20.00 24-Apr-13 28-Feb-13 53% 42% 5% 23-Apr-13 15.53 19.82 Morgan Stanley DMITRIY KOLOMYTSYN Underwt/In-Line 11.00 23-Apr-13 31-Jan-13 50% 44% 6% 22-Apr-13 15.78 20.55 HSBC VLADIMIR ZHUKOV neutral 16.50 21-Apr-13 31-Dec-12 59% 24% 18% 19-Apr-13 15.74 20.84 Deutsche Bank ERIK DANEMAR hold 20.00 19-Apr-13 30-Nov-12 47% 40% 13% 18-Apr-13 15.50 20.84 Alfa-Bank BARRY EHRLICH equalweight 17.30 16-Apr-13 31-Oct-12 29% 64% 7% 17-Apr-13 15.25 20.84 Sberbank CIB MIKHAIL STISKIN hold 18.32 16-Apr-13 28-Sep-12 27% 67% 7% 16-Apr-13 15.68 21.18 UFS-Finance Investment Company ILYA BALAKIREV buy 23.60 16-Apr-13 31-Aug-12 19% 75% 6% 15-Apr-13 15.89 21.47 Societe Generale ABHISHEK SHUKLA buy 23.00 15-Apr-13 31-Jul-12 13% 81% 6% 12-Apr-13 16.57 21.58 Credit Suisse SEMYON MIRONOV outperform 19.60 3-Apr-13 29-Jun-12 7% 87% 7% 11-Apr-13 16.76 21.58 Goldman Sachs YULIA CHEKUNAEVA neutral/neutral 21.00 15-Mar-13 31-May-12 7% 87% 7% 10-Apr-13 17.17 21.48 Otkritie Capital DENIS GABRIELIK buy 19.70 15-Mar-13 30-Apr-12 7% 87% 7% 9-Apr-13 17.07 21.48 JPMorgan YURIY A VLASOV neutral 19.10 21-Feb-13 8-Apr-13 16.59 21.60 Barclays VLADIMIR SERGIEVSKIY overweight 22.50 14-Feb-13 5-Apr-13 16.48 21.60 Renaissance Capital BORIS KRASNOJENOV buy 23.00 28-Jan-13 4-Apr-13 16.60 21.60 BCS KIRILL CHUYKO buy 23.00 18-Jan-13 3-Apr-13 16.73 21.60 VTB Capital NIKOLAY SOSNOVSKIY hold 20.00 21-Dec-12 2-Apr-13 16.85 21.81 Aton LLC DINNUR GALIKHANOV sell 14.60 4-Dec-12 1-Apr-13 16.89 21.81 TKB Capital MARIA KALVARSKAIA buy 27.00 11-Jan-11 29-Mar-13 16.89 21.81 28-Mar-13 16.89 21.81 27-Mar-13 16.65 21.81 26-Mar-13 16.51 21.81 25-Mar-13 16.27 21.72 22-Mar-13 16.71 21.72 21-Mar-13 16.76 21.59 20-Mar-13 16.74 21.59 19-Mar-13 16.59 21.70 18-Mar-13 16.65 21.70 15-Mar-13 17.21 21.70 14-Mar-13 17.35 21.57 Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 3. 24.04.2013 MMC Norilsk Nickel OJSC Company Analysis - Ownership Ownership Type Ownership Statistics Geographic Ownership Distribution Geographic Ownership 1% Shares Outstanding (M) #N/A Field Not Applicable Others 100.00% 0% 0% 0% 0% Float 0.00% 0% 0% Short Interest (M) 0.00% Short Interest as % of Float 0.00% Days to Cover Shorts 0.00% Institutional Ownership 0.00% Retail Ownership 0.00% Insider Ownership Others 0.00% Institutional Ownership Distribution Others 100.00% 100% 0.00% 0.00% Institutional Ownership Retail Ownership Insider Ownership 0.00% Pricing data is in USD Others 0.00% Others Others Top 20 Owners: TOP 20 ALL Institutional Ownership Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Country VANGUARD GROUP INC 8'318'711 -446'840 133'515'312 0.48% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES 0% 0% 0% BARING INTERNATIONAL 8'137'574 8'137'574 130'608'063 0.47% 31.12.2012 13F BRITAIN 0% BNP PARIBAS INV PART 5'129'290 1'274'754 82'325'105 0.30% 28.02.2013 ULT-AGG FRANCE FRANKLIN RESOURCES 5'073'960 75'900 81'437'058 0.29% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES BARING ASSET MANAGEM 4'797'930 944'039 77'006'777 0.28% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG IRELAND JP MORGAN 4'561'641 25'615 73'214'338 0.26% 28.02.2013 ULT-AGG VAN ECK ASSOCIATES C 4'434'338 52'940 71'171'125 0.26% 23.04.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES BLACKROCK 4'352'197 432'194 69'852'762 0.25% 22.04.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES DWS INVESTMENT SA 3'536'560 300'000 56'761'788 0.21% 28.02.2013 MF-AGG LUXEMBOURG GRANTHAM MAYO VAN OT 3'337'724 0 53'570'470 0.19% 31.05.2012 MF-AGG UNITED STATES 100% ALLIANZ ASSET MANAGE 2'533'017 903'464 40'654'923 0.15% 31.03.2013 ULT-AGG GERMANY ALLIANCE BERNSTEIN 2'528'259 900'371 40'578'557 0.15% 28.02.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES TEMPLETON INVESTMENT 2'453'764 0 39'382'912 0.14% 31.12.2012 MF-AGG BRITAIN SEB 2'103'863 7'738 33'767'001 0.12% 31.12.2012 ULT-AGG Others Others PICTET CONSEIL EN IN 1'655'244 819'149 26'566'666 0.10% 31.01.2013 MF-AGG LUXEMBOURG CARNEGIE FONDER AB/S 1'573'000 0 25'246'650 0.09% 28.02.2013 MF-AGG SWEDEN THAMES RIVER CAPITAL 1'504'605 0 24'148'910 0.09% 30.09.2012 MF-AGG BRITAIN STATE STREET 1'373'744 -1'964 22'048'591 0.08% 23.04.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES PRINCIPAL FINANCIAL 1'179'718 451'070 18'934'474 0.07% 31.03.2013 ULT-AGG UNITED STATES PICTET & CIE 1'157'555 1'157'555 18'578'758 0.07% 31.01.2013 MF-AGG SWITZERLAND Top 5 Insiders: Holder Name Position Position Change Market Value % of Ownership Report Date Source Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 4. Company Analysis - Financials I/IV MMC Norilsk Nickel OJSC Financial information is in USD (M) Equivalent Estimates Periodicity: Fiscal Year 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Income Statement Revenue 3'133 5'201 7'033 7'169 11'550 17'119 13'980 8'542 12'775 14'122 12'065 12'301 12'833 13'838 - Cost of Goods Sold 1'774 2'873 3'179 2'994 3'158 5'882 7'626 4'177 4'883 5'793 6'145 Gross Income 1'360 2'328 3'854 4'175 8'392 11'237 6'354 4'365 7'892 8'329 5'920 5'912 6'201 6'386 - Selling, General & Admin Expenses 568 751 866 841 1'090 3'878 1'869 830 1'325 1'851 1'777 (Research & Dev Costs) 40 14 20 18 19 Operating Income 792 1'577 2'988 3'334 7'302 7'359 4'485 3'535 6'567 6'478 4'143 4'415 4'518 4'876 - Interest Expense 109 40 68 83 67 284 397 128 87 105 242 - Foreign Exchange Losses (Gains) -17 -15 12 25 -65 -146 397 141 22 334 -214 - Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains) -174 213 355 110 523 -514 3'964 -40 -324 393 972 Pretax Income 874 1'339 2'553 3'116 6'777 7'735 -273 3'306 6'782 5'646 3'143 3'933 4'198 4'425 - Income Tax Expense 290 493 696 838 1'805 2'459 282 802 1'548 1'460 1'000 Income Before XO Items 584 846 1'857 2'278 4'972 5'276 -555 2'504 5'234 4'186 2'143 - Extraordinary Loss Net of Tax 0 0 0 -74 -993 0 0 -147 2'145 560 0 - Minority Interests -8 -16 -21 -3 -24 -51 -106 51 -209 22 -27 Diluted EPS Before XO Items Net Income Adjusted* 592 862 1'878 2'281 4'996 5'327 4'279 2'651 5'442 4'164 3'119 3'071 3'269 3'610 EPS Adjusted 1.83 1.96 2.21 Dividends Per Share 1.50 1.66 1.41 Payout Ratio % 24.6 33.6 16.4 12.3 7.7 14.9 48.2 20.7 0.82 0.85 0.64 Total Shares Outstanding Diluted Shares Outstanding EBITDA 1'215 2'029 3'528 3'912 7'888 8'296 5'788 4'352 7'370 7'240 4'932 5'202 5'487 5'983 *Net income excludes extraordinary gains and losses and one-time charges. Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 5. Company Analysis - Financials II/IV Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Balance Sheet Total Current Assets 3265.99906 3701.64305 3967 5553 5205 12510 7059 8408 12974 6569 6814 + Cash & Near Cash Items 262 958 1'346 922 2'178 4'008 1'995 3'632 5'405 1'627 1'037 + Short Term Investments 94 136 + Accounts & Notes Receivable 212 361 290 278 534 661 278 683 995 970 697 + Inventories 1'826 1'503 1'442 1'301 1'471 2'108 1'959 1'990 2'246 2'623 3'197 + Other Current Assets 873 744 889 3'052 1'022 5'733 2'827 2'103 4'328 1'349 1'883 Total Long-Term Assets 6'424 7'633 9'665 9'177 11'074 23'186 13'764 14'352 10'935 12'343 14'160 + Long Term Investments 104 163 1'407 690 2'615 2'982 523 Gross Fixed Assets 6'731 8'190 9'276 8'985 10'892 19'432 18'071 18'548 19'730 19'477 23'100 Accumulated Depreciation 415 920 1'424 1'840 2'758 4'451 7'334 7'531 10'577 9'892 11'173 + Net Fixed Assets 6'315 7'270 7'852 7'145 8'134 14'981 10'737 11'017 9'153 9'585 11'927 + Other Long Term Assets 4 199 406 1'342 325 5'223 2'504 3'335 1'782 2'758 2'233 Total Current Liabilities 1'468 1'638 1'383 1'594 1'251 6'434 2'126 4'112 2'697 3'830 3'969 + Accounts Payable 211 156 151 170 191 352 281 243 374 346 449 + Short Term Borrowings 453 267 552 357 158 3'973 872 2'986 1'256 2'754 2'526 + Other Short Term Liabilities 804 1'215 680 1'067 902 2'109 973 883 1'067 730 994 Total Long Term Liabilities 956 1'088 1'606 1'739 1'892 7'441 6'912 3'893 3'238 3'860 4'065 + Long Term Borrowings 146 182 657 635 632 4'103 5'568 2'378 1'575 2'401 2'497 + Other Long Term Borrowings 810 906 949 1'104 1'260 3'338 1'344 1'515 1'663 1'459 1'568 Total Liabilities 2'425 2'726 2'989 3'333 3'143 13'875 9'038 8'005 5'935 7'690 8'034 + Long Preferred Equity 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 + Minority Interest 101 346 366 334 319 2'318 1'054 1'080 598 120 109 + Share Capital & APIC 688 751 792 9 619 1'398 1'398 1'398 1'519 1'519 1'519 + Retained Earnings & Other Equity 6'476 7'511 9'485 11'054 12'198 18'105 9'333 12'277 15'857 9'583 11'312 Total Shareholders Equity 7'265 8'609 10'643 11'397 13'136 21'821 11'785 14'755 17'974 11'222 12'940 Total Liabilities & Equity 9'690 11'335 13'632 14'730 16'279 35'696 20'823 22'760 23'909 18'912 20'974 Book Value Per Share 8.78 8.90 9.41 Tangible Book Value Per Share Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 6. Company Analysis - Financials III/IV Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Cash Flows Net Income 592 862 1'878 2'355 5'989 5'327 -449 2'600 3'298 3'604 2'170 2'763 2'984 3'419 + Depreciation & Amortization 423 451 540 578 586 937 1'303 817 803 762 789 + Other Non-Cash Adjustments -276 133 -3'412 -3'913 -655 1'026 -309 586 1'826 996 1'071 + Changes in Non-Cash Capital -127 208 3'498 3'974 -273 75 370 -560 -410 -658 -595 Cash From Operating Activities 611 1'655 2'504 2'994 5'647 7'365 915 3'443 5'517 4'704 3'435 + Disposal of Fixed Assets 4 21 57 38 46 88 88 38 33 23 10 + Capital Expenditures -353 -440 -618 -773 -743 -1'140 -2'360 -1'061 -1'728 -2'201 -2'692 -2'441 -2'324 -2'216 + Increase in Investments -40 -142 0 0 + Decrease in Investments 191 5 0 0 + Other Investing Activities -271 -60 -1'467 -720 1'075 -11'732 2'730 513 249 300 -233 Cash From Investing Activities -470 -617 -2'028 -1'455 378 -12'784 458 -510 -1'446 -1'878 -2'915 + Dividends Paid -170 -147 -618 -201 -1'079 -849 -1'670 -1'208 -1'234 -960 + Change in Short Term Borrowings -660 -292 -36 85 -482 + Increase in Long Term Borrowings 228 175 872 112 10'183 3'723 113 628 3'694 2'478 + Decrease in Long Term Borrowings -20 -213 -197 -417 -11 -3'915 -5'240 -1'193 -3'048 -1'351 -2'666 + Increase in Capital Stocks 0 0 0 0 1'705 1'246 0 + Decrease in Capital Stocks 0 0 0 -1'457 -999 -29 -8'995 0 + Other Financing Activities -109 16 47 -64 -2'198 1'838 -2'617 -78 -111 36 38 Cash From Financing Activities -731 -461 68 -1'942 -4'769 7'257 -5'804 -1'187 -2'034 -6'604 -1'110 Net Changes in Cash -590 577 544 -403 1'256 1'838 -4'431 1'746 2'037 -3'778 -590 Free Cash Flow (CFO-CAPEX) 258 1'214 1'886 2'221 4'904 6'225 -1'445 2'382 3'789 2'503 743 Free Cash Flow To Firm 331 1'239 1'935 2'282 4'953 6'419 2'479 3'856 2'581 908 Free Cash Flow To Equity -190 905 2'582 2'039 4'457 12'581 -2'874 1'340 1'402 4'869 565 Free Cash Flow per Share Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 7. Company Analysis - Financials IV/IV Periodicity: 12/02 12/03 12/04 12/05 12/06 12/07 12/08 12/09 12/10 12/11 12/12 12/13E 12/14E 12/15E Ratio Analysis Valuation Ratios Price Earnings 8.8x 8.2x 7.3x EV to EBIT 7.7x 3.8x 8.4x 6.5x 5.1x 8.0x EV to EBITDA 6.8x 3.0x 6.8x 5.8x 4.6x 6.8x Price to Sales 2.2x 2.2x 2.0x Price to Book 1.8x 1.8x 1.7x Dividend Yield 9.3% 10.3% 8.8% Profitability Ratios Gross Margin 43.4% 44.8% 54.8% 58.2% 72.7% 65.6% 45.5% 51.1% 61.8% 59.0% 49.1% 48.1% 48.3% 46.2% EBITDA Margin 38.8% 39.0% 50.2% 54.6% 68.3% 48.5% 41.4% 50.9% 57.7% 51.3% 40.9% 42.3% 42.8% 43.2% Operating Margin 25.3% 30.3% 42.5% 46.5% 63.2% 43.0% 32.1% 41.4% 51.4% 45.9% 34.3% 35.9% 35.2% 35.2% Profit Margin 18.9% 16.6% 26.7% 32.8% 51.9% 31.1% -3.2% 30.4% 25.8% 25.5% 18.0% 25.0% 25.5% 26.1% Return on Assets 6.1% 8.2% 15.0% 16.6% 38.6% 20.5% -1.6% 11.9% 14.1% 16.8% 10.9% 17.5% 15.5% 18.8% Return on Equity 8.9% 11.2% 20.3% 22.1% 50.2% 33.0% -3.0% 21.3% 21.2% 25.3% 18.1% 21.5% 22.8% 23.4% Leverage & Coverage Ratios Current Ratio 2.22 2.26 2.87 3.48 4.16 1.94 3.32 2.04 4.81 1.72 1.72 Quick Ratio 0.39 0.89 1.18 0.75 2.17 0.73 1.07 1.05 2.37 0.68 0.44 Interest Coverage Ratio (EBIT/I) 7.27 39.40 43.94 40.17 108.99 25.91 11.30 27.62 75.48 61.70 17.12 Tot Debt/Capital 0.08 0.05 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.27 0.35 0.27 0.14 0.31 0.28 Tot Debt/Equity 0.08 0.05 0.11 0.09 0.06 0.37 0.55 0.36 0.16 0.46 0.39 Others Asset Turnover 0.32 0.50 0.56 0.51 0.74 0.66 0.49 0.39 0.55 0.66 0.60 Accounts Receivable Turnover 14.07 18.41 21.62 25.24 28.45 28.65 29.78 17.78 15.23 14.37 14.48 Accounts Payable Turnover 6.63 13.05 20.31 17.78 18.44 24.01 23.62 16.06 16.66 17.14 16.90 Inventory Turnover 0.95 1.72 2.16 2.18 2.28 3.29 3.75 2.12 2.31 2.38 2.11 Effective Tax Rate 33.1% 36.8% 27.3% 26.9% 26.6% 31.8% 24.3% 22.8% 25.9% 31.8% Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |
  • 8. Company Analysis - Peers Comparision MMC NORILSK POLYUS GOLD IMPALA TECK RESOURCES- EVRAZ PLC BHP BILLITON LTD UNITED CO RUSAL XSTRATA PLC ANGLO AMER PLC LONMIN PLC MAGNITOGORSK SEVERSTAL NLMK OAO MECHEL RIO TINTO LTD ADR OJSC PLATINUM B Latest Fiscal Year: 12/2012 12/2012 06/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 09/2012 12/2012 12/2012 06/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 12/2012 52-Week High 20.44 384.30 39.34 5.70 1'310.00 1'201.00 2'440.00 568.60 12.70 470.00 17'600.00 69.86 264.00 39.90 72.30 52-Week High Date 25.01.2013 30.04.2012 20.02.2013 26.04.2012 01.02.2013 01.02.2013 02.05.2012 02.05.2012 02.05.2012 14.09.2012 15.01.2013 17.09.2012 27.04.2012 10.01.2013 14.02.2013 52-Week Low 13.96 151.10 30.09 3.81 787.60 760.47 1'540.00 226.96 6.70 233.00 10'845.00 45.51 111.30 24.10 48.37 52-Week Low Date 01.06.2012 18.04.2013 12.07.2012 02.04.2013 27.11.2012 27.06.2012 18.04.2013 09.11.2012 15.04.2013 17.04.2013 15.04.2013 04.04.2013 23.04.2013 23.04.2013 30.08.2012 Daily Volume 3'278'994 3'241'562 16'783'219 4'595'000 15'793 4'406'533 3'018'744 1'024'259 11'494'300 1'967'720 1'045'689 4'623'300 693'255 9'034'012 6'203'716 Current Price (4/dd/yy) 16.05 166.30 31.70 3.94 918.00 989.80 1'616.50 267.60 7.20 255.80 12'014.00 54.09 119.70 25.60 54.68 52-Week High % Change -21.5% -56.7% -19.4% -30.9% -29.9% -17.6% -33.8% -52.9% -43.3% -45.6% -31.7% -22.6% -54.7% -35.8% -24.4% 52-Week Low % Change 15.0% 10.1% 5.4% 3.4% 16.6% 30.2% 5.0% 17.9% 7.5% 9.8% 10.8% 18.9% 7.5% 6.2% 13.0% Total Common Shares (M) - 1'339.9 5'297.6 15'193.0 3'032.2 3'002.7 1'391.0 381.8 11'006.0 837.7 615.8 5'993.2 416.3 582.3 1'847.0 Market Capitalization 27'631 2'449 158'638 59'860 174'996 29'721 22'529 1'521 80'455 214'288 75'954 324'174 49'828 14'926 86'882 Total Debt 5'023.0 8'169.0 28'330.0 11'334.0 348.3 17'067.0 16'760.0 736.0 3'867.0 5'709.5 3'609.0 4'631.7 9'870.1 7'195.0 26'819.0 Preferred Stock - - - - - - - - - - - - 25.3 - - Minority Interest 109.0 200.0 1'215.0 - 282.6 2'339.0 6'130.0 257.0 155.0 20.8 2'307.0 (32.9) 362.3 176.0 11'156.0 Cash and Equivalents 1'037.0 1'320.0 4'781.0 490.0 1'038.3 1'983.0 9'094.0 315.0 424.0 1'750.1 1'193.0 1'058.2 295.0 3'267.0 7'320.0 Enterprise Value - 10'788 194'666 18'554 5'152 62'800 48'193 3'001 6'154 10'788 80'872 13'839 11'546 19'514 119'939 Valuation Total Revenue LFY 12'065.0 14'726.0 72'226.0 10'891.0 2'848.1 31'618.0 28'761.0 1'614.0 9'328.0 14'103.7 27'593.0 12'156.6 11'274.9 10'343.0 50'967.0 LTM 12'065.0 14'726.0 66'950.0 10'891.0 2'028.1 31'618.0 28'761.0 1'614.0 9'328.0 14'103.7 27'342.0 12'156.6 11'274.9 10'126.0 50'967.0 CY+1 12'301.2 14'735.6 67'569.0 11'064.4 - 33'840.4 34'519.9 1'621.9 9'462.2 14'606.9 32'481.6 12'518.1 11'482.4 9'828.8 55'585.9 CY+2 12'832.7 15'475.0 73'914.3 11'619.3 - 35'525.1 36'176.5 1'995.0 10'023.3 15'369.4 37'931.1 13'450.3 11'466.8 10'752.2 61'445.4 EV/Total Revenue LFY 2.8x 0.9x 3.3x 1.9x 4.1x 2.2x 2.0x 1.6x 0.8x 1.0x 3.9x 1.3x 1.1x 2.1x 3.1x LTM 2.8x 0.9x 3.5x 1.9x 6.7x 2.2x 2.0x 1.6x 0.8x 1.0x 3.9x 1.3x 1.1x 2.1x 3.1x CY+1 2.5x 0.7x 2.9x 1.6x - 1.8x 1.5x 1.5x 0.6x 0.7x 2.5x 1.1x 1.0x 2.0x 2.2x CY+2 2.5x 0.7x 2.6x 1.5x - 1.7x 1.4x 1.2x 0.6x 0.7x 2.2x 1.0x 1.0x 1.8x 1.9x EBITDA LFY 4'932.0 1'599.0 33'421.0 1'223.0 1'426.1 8'122.0 7'682.0 776.0 1'218.0 2'127.4 7'300.0 1'900.5 462.4 3'736.0 15'486.0 LTM 4'932.0 1'599.0 27'133.0 1'223.0 673.9 8'122.0 7'682.0 776.0 1'218.0 2'127.4 5'736.0 1'900.5 462.4 3'508.0 15'486.0 CY+1 5'201.9 2'102.6 28'726.6 1'221.2 - 9'266.4 9'657.0 182.5 1'317.7 2'252.8 6'759.4 2'044.6 1'538.3 3'245.5 21'006.8 CY+2 5'487.1 2'415.1 33'552.1 1'417.8 - 10'563.3 10'177.3 418.0 1'485.8 2'403.5 8'936.5 2'322.0 1'510.4 3'945.0 23'251.3 EV/EBITDA LFY 6.8x 7.9x 7.1x 16.7x 8.2x 8.5x 7.4x 3.2x 6.1x 6.7x 14.6x 8.2x 27.6x 5.7x 10.2x LTM 6.8x 7.9x 8.7x 16.7x 17.4x 8.5x 7.4x 3.2x 6.1x 6.7x 18.6x 8.2x 27.6x 6.0x 10.2x CY+1 6.0x 5.0x 6.7x 14.8x - 6.7x 5.3x 13.1x 4.6x 4.8x 12.0x 6.7x 7.4x 6.1x 5.7x CY+2 5.8x 4.2x 5.7x 12.3x - 5.7x 5.1x 5.7x 3.9x 4.3x 9.2x 5.8x 7.4x 5.0x 5.0x EPS LFY - -0.36 3.61 0.02 - 1.26 2.59 0.36 - - 6.85 - - 2.59 4.06 LTM - -0.23 1.83 -0.02 2.19 0.40 -1.13 -1.08 -0.01 0.85 2.40 0.10 -3.93 2.33 -1.63 CY+1 1.83 0.16 2.53 0.06 - 1.21 2.17 0.05 0.00 1.00 5.24 0.15 (0.62) 2.14 5.72 CY+2 1.96 0.31 3.05 0.07 - 1.45 2.61 0.26 0.02 1.10 8.48 0.18 0.11 2.79 6.62 P/E LFY - - 17.9x - 13.3x 37.8x - - - 9.5x 50.1x 17.3x - 11.0x - LTM - - 11.7x - - 12.0x 9.8x 11.4x - - 50.0x - - 11.0x - CY+1 8.8x 15.9x 12.9x 9.1x - 12.4x 11.4x 90.8x 57.2x 8.2x 22.9x 11.5x - 12.0x 9.8x CY+2 8.2x 8.1x 10.7x 7.0x - 10.4x 9.5x 15.5x 12.7x 7.4x 14.2x 9.4x 33.7x 9.2x 8.5x Revenue Growth 1 Year (14.6%) (10.2%) 0.7% (11.4%) 18.5% (6.7%) (5.9%) (19.0%) 0.2% (10.8%) (16.7%) 3.6% (10.1%) (10.2%) (15.8%) 5 Year (4.4%) - 6.8% - 28.0% 3.5% 13.5% (1.6%) 2.6% 17.8% 0.9% 6.9% 9.2% 9.2% 11.2% EBITDA Growth 1 Year (31.9%) (42.8%) (12.1%) (55.7%) 38.9% (30.3%) (32.5%) 89.7% (2.7%) (40.6%) (36.9%) (15.7%) (81.2%) (30.4%) (41.1%) 5 Year (9.9%) - 8.0% (23.3%) 47.8% (5.7%) (5.8%) (2.5%) (12.0%) (10.3%) (13.0%) (11.0%) (22.8%) 5.7% 8.1% EBITDA Margin LTM 40.9% 10.9% 40.5% 11.2% 38.5% 25.7% 26.7% 48.1% 13.1% 15.1% 21.0% 15.6% 4.1% 34.6% 30.4% CY+1 42.3% 14.3% 42.5% 11.0% - 27.4% 28.0% 11.2% 13.9% 15.4% 20.8% 16.3% 13.4% 33.0% 37.8% CY+2 42.8% 15.6% 45.4% 12.2% - 29.7% 28.1% 21.0% 14.8% 15.6% 23.6% 17.3% 13.2% 36.7% 37.8% Leverage/Coverage Ratios Total Debt / Equity % 39.1% 157.9% 43.0% 103.8% 8.3% 38.4% 44.5% 29.6% 40.0% 79.4% 7.2% 41.6% 313.1% 40.4% 57.2% Total Debt / Capital % 28.0% 60.3% 29.7% 50.9% 7.2% 26.7% 27.7% 21.1% 28.3% 44.2% 6.4% 29.5% 73.6% 28.6% 31.6% Total Debt / EBITDA 1.018x 5.109x 1.308x 9.267x 0.302x 2.101x 2.182x 0.948x 3.175x 2.684x 0.720x 2.437x 21.346x 2.094x 1.732x Net Debt / EBITDA 0.808x 4.283x 1.120x 8.867x -0.446x 1.857x 0.998x 0.543x 2.827x 1.861x 0.447x 1.880x 20.708x 1.253x 1.259x EBITDA / Int. Expense 20.380x 2.479x 44.266x 1.637x 62.969x 20.458x 7.080x 17.244x 5.462x 4.825x 21.283x 27.760x 0.691x 6.026x 14.848x Credit Ratings S&P LT Credit Rating BBB- - A+ - - BBB+ *- BBB - NR BB+ - BBB- - BBB A- S&P LT Credit Rating Date 26.09.2011 - 15.11.2010 - - 29.11.2012 04.04.2013 - 20.01.2010 21.06.2012 - 23.07.2008 - 16.04.2010 18.04.2011 Moody's LT Credit Rating - - (P)A1 - - - Baa1 - - Ba1 - - - Baa2 - Moody's LT Credit Rating Date - - 15.11.2010 - - - 23.02.2009 - - 07.06.2012 - - - 17.11.2010 - Q.M.S Advisors | tel: +41 (0)78 922 08 77 | e-mail: info@qmsadv.com |