Fundamental Equity Analysis - Top 100 Gold Mining Companies Worldwide
Over the past two days the gold market has witnessed one of the largest
corrections in modern history, falling roughly USD200/oz (c.13%) from Friday's
opening of over USD1,560/oz. A surge in speculative selling, stop-loss and
long-liquidation has coincided with a number of technical breaks in gold's price
trend. The key break was the USD1,525/oz level which has been regarded as a
major support level. Once broken selling escalated, and pushed through
USD1,400/oz and USD1,375/oz, a price region which was last observed in late
2010. We expect selling pressure could continue but at this stage it is very
difficult to determine how an instrument will bottom in such a volatile
environment. Fundamentally we believe that this move in gold is likely
associated with the capitulation in inflationary bias associated with ultraaccommodative
monetary policy. Disappointing growth data in China, despite
high levels of Social Financing, coincides with low CPI. In the US, economic
indicators are disappointing and the Fed is cooling on its QE stance; inflation
remains very low. The ECB is actually witnessing a contraction in its balance
sheet. The contraction in the Western World central bank balance sheet
combined with a further decline in the velocity of money, represents a key
challenge for gold. This is particularly true in US dollar terms as capital flows
continue to move towards the US as a place of apparent lower risk yield -
particularly US equities. Marginal industry costs for the gold mining industry
reside around the USD1,300/oz; while the gold market should not be expected
to behave similarly to the base metals in relation to industry production costs,
we expect that as the gold mining industry is threatened with contraction, the
market could see some support around that level if this situation worsens.
Fundamental Equity Analysis - Top 100 Gold Mining Companies Worldwide
1. This material does not constitute investment advice and should not be
viewed as a current or past recommendation or a solicitation of an
offer to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy.
Fundamental Analysis &
Analyst Recommendations
Top 100 Gold Mining Companies Worldwide
April 2013
Q M S Advisors
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