Energy Security Costs

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SSA KPI

AACIMP 2011 Summer School. Science of Global Challenges Stream. Lecture by Yoshio Matsuki.

Educación Empresariales Tecnología

Energy Security Costs Y. Matsuki, D.Sc. Professor, IASA/KPI

Issues ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

REFERENCES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Introduction ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

4 hours ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

basic concepts and examples ,[object Object],[object Object]

Cartel rents and long term cost of oil import: 2 opinions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Economic Rent ,[object Object],[object Object]

Economic Rent with Vertical Supply Curve

Economic Rent with an upward sloping supply curve

Why is MC above S? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

(Leiby et al 1997, p.10): ,[object Object]

Costs of oil market disruptions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

case study in Ukraine ,[object Object],[object Object]

Production Price Index, PPI Consumer Price Index, CPI

Temporal change of GDP and Gas Import Price

Temporal change of Imported Natural Gas Volume

Methodology ,[object Object],[object Object]

Model of the relations of GDP, the gas import price and the other variables

PPI for the food industry and Consumed Gas Volume by smaller industries

Consumed Gas Volume by smaller industries and Gas Price

Macroeconomic adjustment cost estimation - Conclusions: ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The premium price of natural gas import (US dollars/1000 m 3 ) at the gas import price of 264 US dollars/1000m 3

Autocorrelation and Partial Correlation of GDP Included observations: 84 Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob . |*******| . |*******| 1 0.953 0.953 78.984 0.000 . |*******| . | . | 2 0.905 -0.024 151.18 0.000 . |*******| . | . | 3 0.858 -0.025 216.81 0.000 . |****** | .*| . | 4 0.799 -0.146 274.51 0.000 . |****** | . | . | 5 0.741 -0.033 324.71 0.000 . |***** | . | . | 6 0.682 -0.035 367.84 0.000 . |***** | . |*** | 7 0.656 0.337 408.24 0.000 . |***** | . | . | 8 0.630 -0.017 445.97 0.000 . |***** | . | . | 9 0.604 -0.017 481.09 0.000 . |**** | . | . | 10 0.585 -0.035 514.55 0.000 . |**** | . | . | 11 0.567 -0.019 546.37 0.000 . |**** | . | . | 12 0.549 -0.019 576.56 0.000 . |**** | **| . | 13 0.498 -0.294 601.76 0.000 . |*** | . | . | 14 0.447 -0.035 622.36 0.000 . |*** | . | . | 15 0.396 -0.036 638.77 0.000 . |*** | . |** | 16 0.353 0.221 651.97 0.000 . |** | . | . | 17 0.309 -0.023 662.28 0.000 . |** | . | . | 18 0.266 -0.024 670.02 0.000 . |** | . | . | 19 0.250 0.039 676.94 0.000 . |** | . | . | 20 0.233 -0.022 683.08 0.000

Forecast of GDP with Auto-regression (-1, -4, -7)

Forecast of GDP by Gas Import Price with Auto-regression (-1, -7)

international energy problems and the world economy ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

international energy problems and the world economy

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Energy Security Costs

1. Energy Security Costs Y. Matsuki, D.Sc. Professor, IASA/KPI

8. World Oil Price

9. History of World Oil Price

10.

11.

12. Economic Rent with Vertical Supply Curve

13. Economic Rent with an upward sloping supply curve

14. Price Elasticity of Supply

15. Monopoly and Monopsony

16. Profit Maximization

17.

18. Monopsony power

19.

20.

21. Calculation of monopsony premium

22.

23.

24. Descriptive statistics of the variables

25. Production Price Index, PPI Consumer Price Index, CPI

26. Natural Gas Import Price and GDP

27. Temporal change of GDP and Gas Import Price

28. GDP and Imported Natural Gas Volume

29. Temporal change of Imported Natural Gas Volume

30.

31. Model of the relations of GDP, the gas import price and the other variables

32. Model (2)

33. Industries in Ukraine

34. Correlations between the variables

35. GDP and Gas Price

36. GDP and PPI for the food industry

37. PPI for the food industry and Consumed Gas Volume by smaller industries

38. Consumed Gas Volume by smaller industries and Gas Price

39. Energy Security Cost in Ukraine?

40. Regression Analysis

41.

42.

43. The premium price of natural gas import (US dollars/1000 m 3 ) at the gas import price of 264 US dollars/1000m 3

44.

45. Autocorrelation and Partial Correlation of GDP Included observations: 84 Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob . |*******| . |*******| 1 0.953 0.953 78.984 0.000 . |*******| . | . | 2 0.905 -0.024 151.18 0.000 . |*******| . | . | 3 0.858 -0.025 216.81 0.000 . |****** | .*| . | 4 0.799 -0.146 274.51 0.000 . |****** | . | . | 5 0.741 -0.033 324.71 0.000 . |***** | . | . | 6 0.682 -0.035 367.84 0.000 . |***** | . |*** | 7 0.656 0.337 408.24 0.000 . |***** | . | . | 8 0.630 -0.017 445.97 0.000 . |***** | . | . | 9 0.604 -0.017 481.09 0.000 . |**** | . | . | 10 0.585 -0.035 514.55 0.000 . |**** | . | . | 11 0.567 -0.019 546.37 0.000 . |**** | . | . | 12 0.549 -0.019 576.56 0.000 . |**** | **| . | 13 0.498 -0.294 601.76 0.000 . |*** | . | . | 14 0.447 -0.035 622.36 0.000 . |*** | . | . | 15 0.396 -0.036 638.77 0.000 . |*** | . |** | 16 0.353 0.221 651.97 0.000 . |** | . | . | 17 0.309 -0.023 662.28 0.000 . |** | . | . | 18 0.266 -0.024 670.02 0.000 . |** | . | . | 19 0.250 0.039 676.94 0.000 . |** | . | . | 20 0.233 -0.022 683.08 0.000

46. Forecast of the GDP increase

47. Forecast of GDP with Auto-regression (-1, -4, -7)

48. Forecast of GDP by Gas Import Price with Auto-regression (-1, -7)

49.

50. international energy problems and the world economy

Energy Security Costs

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Energy Security Costs