AACIMP 2011 Summer School. Science of Global Challenges Stream. Lecture by Yoshio Matsuki.

1. Energy Security Costs Y. Matsuki, D.Sc. Professor, IASA/KPI

8. World Oil Price

9. History of World Oil Price

12. Economic Rent with Vertical Supply Curve

13. Economic Rent with an upward sloping supply curve

14. Price Elasticity of Supply

15. Monopoly and Monopsony

16. Profit Maximization

18. Monopsony power

21. Calculation of monopsony premium

24. Descriptive statistics of the variables

25. Production Price Index, PPI Consumer Price Index, CPI

26. Natural Gas Import Price and GDP

27. Temporal change of GDP and Gas Import Price

28. GDP and Imported Natural Gas Volume

29. Temporal change of Imported Natural Gas Volume

31. Model of the relations of GDP, the gas import price and the other variables

32. Model (2)

33. Industries in Ukraine

34. Correlations between the variables

35. GDP and Gas Price

36. GDP and PPI for the food industry

37. PPI for the food industry and Consumed Gas Volume by smaller industries

38. Consumed Gas Volume by smaller industries and Gas Price

39. Energy Security Cost in Ukraine?

40. Regression Analysis

43. The premium price of natural gas import (US dollars/1000 m 3 ) at the gas import price of 264 US dollars/1000m 3

45. Autocorrelation and Partial Correlation of GDP Included observations: 84 Autocorrelation Partial Correlation AC PAC Q-Stat Prob . |*******| . |*******| 1 0.953 0.953 78.984 0.000 . |*******| . | . | 2 0.905 -0.024 151.18 0.000 . |*******| . | . | 3 0.858 -0.025 216.81 0.000 . |****** | .*| . | 4 0.799 -0.146 274.51 0.000 . |****** | . | . | 5 0.741 -0.033 324.71 0.000 . |***** | . | . | 6 0.682 -0.035 367.84 0.000 . |***** | . |*** | 7 0.656 0.337 408.24 0.000 . |***** | . | . | 8 0.630 -0.017 445.97 0.000 . |***** | . | . | 9 0.604 -0.017 481.09 0.000 . |**** | . | . | 10 0.585 -0.035 514.55 0.000 . |**** | . | . | 11 0.567 -0.019 546.37 0.000 . |**** | . | . | 12 0.549 -0.019 576.56 0.000 . |**** | **| . | 13 0.498 -0.294 601.76 0.000 . |*** | . | . | 14 0.447 -0.035 622.36 0.000 . |*** | . | . | 15 0.396 -0.036 638.77 0.000 . |*** | . |** | 16 0.353 0.221 651.97 0.000 . |** | . | . | 17 0.309 -0.023 662.28 0.000 . |** | . | . | 18 0.266 -0.024 670.02 0.000 . |** | . | . | 19 0.250 0.039 676.94 0.000 . |** | . | . | 20 0.233 -0.022 683.08 0.000

46. Forecast of the GDP increase

47. Forecast of GDP with Auto-regression (-1, -4, -7)

48. Forecast of GDP by Gas Import Price with Auto-regression (-1, -7)

50. international energy problems and the world economy