Conducting Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessments in Rural Mountain Communities in the Columbia Basin Region of Canada. Presented by Jeff Zukiwsky at the "Perth II: Global Change and the World's Mountains" conference in Perth, Scotland in September 2010.
Similar a Conducting Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessments in Rural Mountain Communities in the Columbia Basin Region of Canada [Jeff Zukiwsky]
Introduction including perspective on new UN definition of nature-based solut...ipcc-media
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Conducting Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessments in Rural Mountain Communities in the Columbia Basin Region of Canada [Jeff Zukiwsky]
1. Climate Change Risk and
Vulnerability Assessment:
Examples from Rural Mountain Communities in the
Columbia Basin Region of Canada
Jeff Zukiwsky
Zumundo Consultants
Fernie, Canada
September 28, 2010
2. Overview
Columbia Basin Trust (CBT)
Communities Adapting to Climate Change (CACC) Initiative
2 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
3. 3 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
4. Adapting to Climate Change
4 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
5. CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process
1. Get Started
2. Learn About Climate Change
3. Identify Community Priorities
4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities
5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions
6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan
5 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
6. CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process
1. Get Started
• Appoint a coordinator
• Establish a local steering committee
2. Learn About Climate Change
3. Identify Community Priorities
4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities
5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions
6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan
6 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
7. CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process
1. Get Started
2. Learn About Climate Change
• Local observations
• Historical patterns
• Future projections
3. Identify Community Priorities
4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities
5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions
6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan
7 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
8. Annual mean temperature, 1961-1990 (left) and CGCM3-A2 / CRCM4
downscaled scenario, 2041-2070 (right)
(Source: Trevor Murdock, PCIC)
8 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
9. CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process
1. Get Started
2. Learn About Climate Change
3. Identify Community Priorities
• Engage Community
• Map climate change impacts
4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities
5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions
6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan
9 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
10. Mapping Climate Change Impacts
10 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
11. CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process
1. Get Started
2. Learn About Climate Change
3. Identify Community Priorities
4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities
• Risk- based Approach
• Combined Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions
6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan
11 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
12. Approaches to Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
Risk Management Approach
Risk = Probability x Consequence
High
Consequence
Negligible- No action required
Low- Some actions (public
education) may be desirable
Moderate- Some controls
Low required to reduce risk to
lower levels
High - High priority control
Unlikely Likely measures required
Extreme - Immediate controls
Probability required
12
13. Approaches to Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
Combined Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
Vulnerability = Sensitivity x Adaptive Capacity
Risk = Probability x Consequence
Rate each ‘impact’ as low, medium, or high
Low High
Vulnerability Vulnerability
Should be priority planning
High Risk May be priority planning areas
areas
Are unlikely to be priority
Low Risk May be priority planning areas
planning areas
13
14. 14 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
15. 15 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
16. District of Elkford
• Priorities:
• Flooding
• Wildfires
• 1 day workshop (consultant
facilitated) with City staff, elected Damage to
Flooding of
buildings
bridge
officials, scientific experts, and and land
community members Pumphouse
flooding
• Combined Risk and Vulnerability Vulnerability
Assessment Death/injury Stormwater
to river managemen
• Vulnerability = Sensitivity x users t stress
Adaptive Capacity
• Risk = Vulnerability x
Probability (20 year planning period)
Probability
16 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
17. 17 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
18. City of Kimberley
3 Planning Priorities
1. Water and Forests
2. Municipal Infrastructure
3. Tourism
• Partnership with UBC - Climate
Change Impact Visualization
• Working group approach: Adaptive capacity Are
+ Non- we
• Working group established for Climate
stress
climate
stresses
= Potential
impacts
Possible
actions
Can we
do it?
Challeng
es/
vulne
rable
each priority area (5-8 people) Timeframe – Now + 5 years
Barriers
?
• Vulnerability assessment based on
worksheets developed by each Future Timeframe – 2020 to 2050
working group
• 2-3 working group meetings to
assessment vulnerability
18 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
19. 19 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
20. City of Rossland
• Combined Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
• Half day workshop
• 3 different colour dots:
• Present
• 20 years in the future
• 50 years in the future
• Result – Low, medium, or high rating for risk and vulnerability
Planning Area Future Climate Change Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability
Impact/Opportunity (High, Medium, Low) (High, Medium, Low) (Sensitivity x
Adaptive Capacity)
Food Security Extreme events resulting in road Medium – Highway Medium – There are Medium
closures and regional food crews and transport several transportation
shortage (filled in for example) trucks are ready to deal routes including air in an
with winter storms; but emergency; grocery
temporary road closures stores have some
have occurred in the supplies as do individual
past. households
20 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
21. CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process
1. Get Started
2. Learn About Climate Change
3. Identify Community Priorities
4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities
5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions
6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan
21 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin,
22. Summary: Challenges
Multitude of methodologies for community-based RVA
Integration of adaptation strategy into existing policy
and planning framework
Incorporating climate change opportunities into
adaptation strategy - - - “RISK”
Vulnerability assessment approach is overly „academic‟
and complicated
Is it valid?
22 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
23. Summary: Lessons Learned
Communities are highly flexible:
Ability to interpret complex assessment criteria and make it
work for rural communities
Community-driven approach:
Local steering committees
Community involvement
Mainstreaming:
Increased awareness and understanding of climate change
impacts = integrating climate change impacts and adaptations
into day-to-day planning and operations
23 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
24. Conclusion
• Process Matters!
• Regardless of outcome, risk/
vulnerability assessment was an
extremely important learning and
capacity building tool
24 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
25. Thank
You
25 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada
26. Selected References
• Australian Government (2008) Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government. Retrieved
November 22, 2009 from: http://www.climatechange.gov.au/community/local-government/risk-management.aspx
• Black, Bruce, & Egener (2009) Adapting to Climate Change: A Risk-Based Guide for Alberta Municipalities. Retrieved November
22, 2009 from: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/projdb/pdf/176a_e.pdf
• Carter, Parry, Nishioka , & Harasawa (1994) Technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations.
University College London, England and Centre for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Japan, 59 pp
• Harford, D. (2008) Climate Change Adaptation: Planning for BC. Retrieved from Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions website:
www.pics.uvic.ca/research.php
• Hilson, D (2002) Extending the risk process to manage opportunities. International Journal of Project Management, 20, 235–240.
• Noble, Bruce, Egener, (2005) An Overview of the Risk Management Approach to Climate Change in Canada. Retrieved March 11,
2010 from: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/pdf/NobleBruceEgener2005_e.pdf
• NRCAN (Natural Resources Canada) (2007) From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate. Chapter 8 –British
Columbia. Retrieved November 28, 2009 from http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php
• Parzen, J. (ed). (2008). Chicago Area Climate Change Quick Guide: Adapting to the Physical Impacts of Climate Change. For
Municipalities and Other Organizations. Retrieved March 9, 2010 from:
http://www.chicagoclimateaction.org/filebin/pdf/Chicago_Quick_Guide_to_Climate_Change_Preparation_June_2008.pdf
• Schneider, Semenov, & Patwardhan, (2007) Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Chapter 19,
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp
• Snover, Whitely Binder, Lopez, Willmott, Kay, Howell, & Simmonds. (2007). Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local,
Regional, and State Governments. In association with and published by ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, Oakland,
CA.
• Halifax Regional Municipality (2007) Climate Change: Developer's Risk Management Guide.
26 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada