Climate Risk Assessment Rural Mountain Communities Columbia Basin

Climate Change Risk and
Vulnerability Assessment:
Examples from Rural Mountain Communities in the
Columbia Basin Region of Canada

Jeff Zukiwsky
Zumundo Consultants
Fernie, Canada

September 28, 2010

Overview

Columbia Basin Trust (CBT)
Communities Adapting to Climate Change (CACC) Initiative

2 Climate Change Risk & Vulnerability
Assessment in the Columbia Basin, Canada

Adapting to Climate Change


CBT 6 Step Adaptation Planning Process

1. Get Started
2. Learn About Climate Change
3. Identify Community Priorities
4. Assess Vulnerability, Risk & Opportunities
5. Develop Adaptation Strategies and Actions
6. Implementation & Monitoring of Plan

Assessment in the Columbia Basin,


1. Get Started
• Appoint a coordinator
• Establish a local steering committee



1. Get Started
• Local observations
• Historical patterns
• Future projections


Annual mean temperature, 1961-1990 (left) and CGCM3-A2 / CRCM4
downscaled scenario, 2041-2070 (right)
(Source: Trevor Murdock, PCIC)



1. Get Started
• Engage Community
• Map climate change impacts


Mapping Climate Change Impacts



1. Get Started
• Risk- based Approach
• Combined Risk and Vulnerability Assessment


Approaches to Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

 Risk Management Approach
 Risk = Probability x Consequence

High
Consequence

Negligible- No action required

Low- Some actions (public
education) may be desirable
Moderate- Some controls
Low required to reduce risk to
lower levels
High - High priority control
Unlikely Likely measures required
Extreme - Immediate controls
Probability required
12

Approaches to Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

 Combined Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
 Vulnerability = Sensitivity x Adaptive Capacity
 Risk = Probability x Consequence
 Rate each ‘impact’ as low, medium, or high

Low High
Vulnerability Vulnerability

Should be priority planning
High Risk May be priority planning areas
areas

Are unlikely to be priority
Low Risk May be priority planning areas
planning areas

13

District of Elkford
• Priorities:
• Flooding
• Wildfires

• 1 day workshop (consultant
facilitated) with City staff, elected Damage to
Flooding of
buildings
bridge
officials, scientific experts, and and land

community members Pumphouse
flooding

• Combined Risk and Vulnerability Vulnerability
Assessment Death/injury Stormwater
to river managemen
• Vulnerability = Sensitivity x users t stress

Adaptive Capacity
• Risk = Vulnerability x
Probability (20 year planning period)
Probability


City of Kimberley
3 Planning Priorities
1. Water and Forests
2. Municipal Infrastructure
3. Tourism

• Partnership with UBC - Climate
Change Impact Visualization

• Working group approach: Adaptive capacity Are
+ Non- we
• Working group established for Climate
stress
climate
stresses
= Potential
impacts
Possible
actions
Can we
do it?
Challeng
es/
vulne
rable
each priority area (5-8 people) Timeframe – Now + 5 years
Barriers
?

• Vulnerability assessment based on
worksheets developed by each Future Timeframe – 2020 to 2050

working group
• 2-3 working group meetings to
assessment vulnerability


City of Rossland
• Combined Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

• Half day workshop

• 3 different colour dots:
• Present
• 20 years in the future
• 50 years in the future

• Result – Low, medium, or high rating for risk and vulnerability
Planning Area Future Climate Change Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability
Impact/Opportunity (High, Medium, Low) (High, Medium, Low) (Sensitivity x
Adaptive Capacity)
Food Security Extreme events resulting in road Medium – Highway Medium – There are Medium
closures and regional food crews and transport several transportation
shortage (filled in for example) trucks are ready to deal routes including air in an
with winter storms; but emergency; grocery
temporary road closures stores have some
have occurred in the supplies as do individual
past. households


1. Get Started


Summary: Challenges
 Multitude of methodologies for community-based RVA

 Integration of adaptation strategy into existing policy
and planning framework

 Incorporating climate change opportunities into
adaptation strategy - - - “RISK”

 Vulnerability assessment approach is overly „academic‟
and complicated
 Is it valid?


Summary: Lessons Learned
 Communities are highly flexible:
 Ability to interpret complex assessment criteria and make it
work for rural communities

 Community-driven approach:
 Local steering committees
 Community involvement

 Mainstreaming:
 Increased awareness and understanding of climate change
impacts = integrating climate change impacts and adaptations
into day-to-day planning and operations


Conclusion
• Process Matters!
• Regardless of outcome, risk/
vulnerability assessment was an
extremely important learning and
capacity building tool


Thank
You

Selected References
• Australian Government (2008) Climate Change Impacts and Risk Management: A Guide for Business and Government. Retrieved
November 22, 2009 from: http://www.climatechange.gov.au/community/local-government/risk-management.aspx
• Black, Bruce, & Egener (2009) Adapting to Climate Change: A Risk-Based Guide for Alberta Municipalities. Retrieved November
22, 2009 from: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/projdb/pdf/176a_e.pdf
• Carter, Parry, Nishioka , & Harasawa (1994) Technical guidelines for assessing climate change impacts and adaptations.
University College London, England and Centre for Global Environmental Research, Tsukuba, Japan, 59 pp
• Harford, D. (2008) Climate Change Adaptation: Planning for BC. Retrieved from Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions website:
www.pics.uvic.ca/research.php
• Hilson, D (2002) Extending the risk process to manage opportunities. International Journal of Project Management, 20, 235–240.
• Noble, Bruce, Egener, (2005) An Overview of the Risk Management Approach to Climate Change in Canada. Retrieved March 11,
2010 from: http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/pdf/NobleBruceEgener2005_e.pdf
• NRCAN (Natural Resources Canada) (2007) From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate. Chapter 8 –British
Columbia. Retrieved November 28, 2009 from http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php
• Parzen, J. (ed). (2008). Chicago Area Climate Change Quick Guide: Adapting to the Physical Impacts of Climate Change. For
Municipalities and Other Organizations. Retrieved March 9, 2010 from:
http://www.chicagoclimateaction.org/filebin/pdf/Chicago_Quick_Guide_to_Climate_Change_Preparation_June_2008.pdf
• Schneider, Semenov, & Patwardhan, (2007) Assessing key vulnerabilities and the risk from climate change. Chapter 19,
Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 976 pp
• Snover, Whitely Binder, Lopez, Willmott, Kay, Howell, & Simmonds. (2007). Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local,
Regional, and State Governments. In association with and published by ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability, Oakland,
CA.
• Halifax Regional Municipality (2007) Climate Change: Developer's Risk Management Guide.


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