Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing; A Business Case Analysis in the Indian Context

Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing: A Business Case Analysis in the Indian Context.
Supervisor: - Dr. M. Jayadev Author: - Venkateswara Rao.G Date:-15/11/2010 Page 1 of 64

Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing;
A Business Case Analysis in
The Indian Context

A
Dissertation submitted to Indira Gandhi National Open University in partial
fulfillment of the requirements for the award of

Masters Degree in Business Administration in Finance Management

Under the Guidance of
Dr.M.Jayadev, Associate Professor
Finance & Control
Indian Institute of Management
Bangalore, 560076
Submitted By
Venkateswara Rao.G
Enrollment No: - 061488037

October 2010
School of Management
Indira Gandhi National Open University
Maidhangarhi, New Delhi.


Certificates


Declaration
I hereby declare that this dissertation titled “ Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing: A Business Case Analysis
in the Indian Context” under the guidance of Dr. M.Jayadev, Associate Professor, Finance & Control, IIM
Bangalore, has been prepared independently, by collecting and referring information , pertaining to my topic.

I further declare that this Dissertation has not been submitted to any other University or Institution
for the award of any other degree of diploma.

Date: 02.10.2010

Place: Bangalore (Venkateswara Rao.G)


Acknowledgement
“Any Man what he becomes tomorrow is entirely depends upon the thought processes he is learning

today from the Surroundings with which he is in interaction”

Iam Grateful especially to my Guide, Dr. M.Jayadev, Associate Professor (Finance & Control), IIM,

Bangalore, for sharing his thoughts by accepting my request for guidance and advising me to do challenging

dissertation work related to Indian Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing Industry and Indhira Gandhi National

Open University founders & it’s staff for giving me the opportunity to do this work for fulfillment of my

MBA Course and my surroundings. And also thankful to Mr.Sandeep, Financial Analyst, M/s.Covensys Inc.,

Bangalore and Mr.Venkata Ramana, Aircraft Maintenance Engineer, M/s.JetAirways, Mumbai for

suggestions and kind support during my work.

I would like to place on record my gratitude, love and affection to my family members and friends

for their constant support and encouragement throughout my life.


Synopsis
Rational of the Study:-
So far in India manufacturing of Commercial Aircraft business not started. Because of no manufacturer in
India, the Commercial Aircraft Acquiring Cost, Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul Costs are quite high
compared to that if it is done in India with already known, and realized examples of many products
manufactured, repaired in India can save 50% of the Cost incurring for buying from Western Countries,
because of Standard Man Hour rates are very less than the Western Countries. And there are examples of
incidents happened that for Repair Work of Rs.10, 000, Indian Airline Operators spending lakhs of rupees for
going to Singapore or Western countries. And the present Population of India using Air-Transport facility is
very less because of high Air-Fares due to the above mentioned costs.
Many major manufacturers like Airbus, Boeing, ATR, Sukhoi, etc companies had plans of starting
Manufacturing, Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul facilities, but theirs plans are limited to papers without
taking into action. The Indian Government research laboratory, National Aerospace Laboratories also had
efforts for having indigenously designed, developed Commercial Aircraft, but still project has not rolled out
as reality, still it is under Type Testing & Approval stage to meet Civil Airworthiness standards, required by
Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA, India), Joint Aviation Authorities (JAA, Europe) and Federal
Aviation Authority (FAA, USA), also the passengers capacity of that Aircraft is limited to 14 no.s only.

Objectives of the Study:-
The basic reason and purpose of this study is laying foundation stone or initiate the Manufacturing of
Commercial Aircrafts in India by suggesting best suitable model of Aircraft for present and future Indian
Aviation Market. Feasibility factors finding for Commercial Aircraft manufacturing in India.

Research Methodology used for carrying the Study:-

a) Existing Models Study: - For finding out best model, primarily study of Indian Airliner’s fleet sizes
for Regional & Domestic transport is analyzed.

b) Scope of Modifications proposed for New-Aircraft: - Found out the more utilized Commercial
Aircraft Model India as A320-200, next B767-800 models. Further modification recommended for the
Aircraft model to make it more suitable for Indian Aviation Market. Technical modifications are proposed
and among these one will be selected, for future research. The proposed New-Aircraft best suites for
Indian Market (For Total Population, Airports, and Landing, Passengers, effecting Environment,
Airliners, Government and Employment) after studying the customer needs in Market from data of
secondary sources.

c) Demand & Supply for proposed New-Aircraft:- For the proposed model, estimated the expected
no. of proposed New-Commercial Aircrafts required to meet the traffic demand by studying & analyzing


the Market research reports of Airbus, Boeing, Embrarer, Sukhoi, and etc reliable research organizations
related to Air Traffic Projections, Demand and Supply, Airliners Industry growth etc.

d) Commercial Viability of the Project: - Production capacity of 30 aircrafts proposed for New-
Commercial Aircraft and calculated the Acquiring or Developing the Aircraft. And various costs incurred
in Manufacturing, Operations, & Marketing and Working Capital are estimated.

e) Financial Viability of the Project: - Evaluated the Financial Viability using Break Even Analysis,
Calculation of Internal Rate of Return, and Net Present Value at the Cost of Capital 11%, investment in
the project is financially viable.

f) Risk Analysis: - Project related risks analysed. Sensitivity Analysis and Scenario Analysis carried out,
the investment in this type of project is less risky as per the present prevailing situation

g) Strategic Analysis: - Competition issues like present foreign suppliers business strategies in India and
High-Speed Rail projects in India, their effects on Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing business in India
project explained with the example of past case of European Low Cost Airliners competition with High-
Speed Rail Operators.

Summary & Conclusions: -

a) Best suitable New-Commercial Aircraft for India suggested, Optimum capacity for Manufacturing,
Commercial Aircraft Manufacturing Business Opportunity in India, Commercial & Financial viabilities
information, Risks, and Strategic Issues Information presented in the report.

b) The Expected Contribution from the Study:-More suitable proposed New-Aircraft, Technology
Independence, Advantages & Benefits to more Indian population, Economy, Idea for Commercial
Aircraft Manufacturing Business, Cost benefits for MRO given. Less risky Air-Travel Business, even
common man also can get the opportunity of exciting air travel with further reduced Air-fares; Valuable
time of population will be saved, etc.

c) Limitations, If Any and The Scope of Future Research:-
Time and Secondary data sources are the limitations for completing this Thesis Work.
Further with Market Research, etc. primary data, and development of new “Take-off and Landing
System” will be the future research work.


List of Tables

Table-1: A320-200 Present Specifications ……………………………................................................ 10
Table-2: A320 Family Deliveries …………………………………………………….…………….…. 13
Table-3: Indian Economic Survey 2009-10 Key Indicators ……..………..……….………..….…... 15
Table-4: Air-Traffic Projections ………………………….……………………….……………….…. 30
Table-5: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2008-2027 for India ………………….…………...….… 33
Table-6: Boeing Current Market Outlook 2009-2028 ……………….…………………........…….... 34
Table-7: Key Indicators & Demand by Region ………………………………….…....….………..… 34
Table-8: Single Aisle 90 to 175 Seats ……………………………………………………………..….. 34
Table-9: Single Aisle 90 to 175 Seats ……………………….………………………..………..…….. 35
Table-10: Region-Wise Comparison …………….….………………………………………..…….. 36
Table-11: Growth Measures & Market Size ………………………………………………..……… 37
Table-12: Deliveries & Market Share by Size ………..…………………………………….……….. 38
Table-13: RPKs and Annual Growth ……………………..…………..…………………………….. 38
Table-14: Cash Flows without discount ………………..………………………………………….…50
Table-15: Assumptions & Output …………………..…………………………………....…….……. 50
Table-16: Discounted Cash Flows yearly (in US$ millions) ………….…….………..…………….. 51
Table-17: Aircraft and parts: Market data (in US$ million) …..………….………..……….……… 53
Table-18: Selling Price Vs. NPV Analysis ……………..…….……………………..…..…….……… 54
Table-19: Sold Aircrafts yearly Vs. NPV Analysis ……………….….……………..…….…….…… 55
Table-20: Scenario Analysis …………………….……………..…………………….……………..…. 56

List of Charts

Indian Air-Traffic Annual Passengers 2001/02 – 2007/08 ……………………………….………….. 29
Top 15 Indian Airports 2007/08 ……………………………………………………………….……… 29
India Domestic Passengers and Growth: Oct-2008 to Oct-2009 ……………………………………. 32
Indian Carriers Domestic Market Share: Oct-2009 …………………………………………….…… 32
Indian Carriers’ Load Factor: Oct-2009 ……………………………..….…….……………….…….. 33
Boeing Market Outlook-2009 India Market Growth Rates ………….…………………..……..….... 39
Top 5 Counties in Aircraft Demand 2009-2028 …………………….……………..…………….……. 40
Typical Aerospace Supply-Chain ……………………………………………………………..…….…. 47
Value Added by Suppliers ………………………………………..…………………………..…..……. 48
Break Even Analysis without Discount …………………………………………..……………..…….. 49
NPV vs. Selling Price ……………………….…………………………….…………………….……… 55
NPV vs. No. of Aircrafts Sold yearly ……………………………………..……..…..………………… 56


Table of Contents
I. Title Page ………………………………………………………………….…… 1

II. Certificates ……………..…….………………………………………….......… 2

III. Declaration …...………………………………………………..…………….…. 3

IV. Acknowledgement.……………………………………………………...…..……. 4

V. Synopsis …………………………………………………….…………..…….…. 5

VI. List of Tables …………………………………………………………………..... 7

VII. List of Charts …………………………………………………………….…..… 7

VIII. Table of Contents …………………………………………………….….….…. 8

1. Chapters ………………………………………………… …………….……….... 9

1.1 Existing Models Study 9
1.2 Scope of Changes Proposed for New-Aircraft …..……….… ………….……….9
1.2.1 Existing Technology 9
1.2.2 Deliveries 13
1.2.3 Required modifications for New-Commercial Aircraft 14
1.3 Demand & Supply for proposed New-Aircraft …….……………..………...… 15
1.3.1 Indian Economy and Aviation Industry Growth Study 15
1.3.2 India’s Economic Outlook by IMF and Global Insight 16
1.3.3 International Air Transport Association (IATA) Review 16
1.3.4 Economic Growth during 2008-09 17
1.3.5 Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) Review 18
1.3.6 ACEXC (Aviation Center of Excellence India) Review 19
1.3.7 Indian Aviation Industry 20
1.3.8 Aircrafts & Parts Market 21
1.3.9 Partnerships & Mergers 22
1.3.10 Airports 23
1.3.11 Government’s Role 24
1.3.12 Forecasts for Aviation Market 26
1.4 Air-Traffic Projections, Demand and Supply ……………………….…….…. 29
1.4.1 Air-Traffic Study 29
1.4.2 Aircraft Demand & Supply Study 33
1.5 Estimating no. of Orders/Sales Expected ………… ………………….……….. 42
1.6 Commercial Viability of Project …………………………………………...….…. 42
1.6.1 Estimating New-Aircraft Project R&D Cost & Target Time 43
1.6.2 Manufacturing Plant with Production Capacity 44
1.7 Financial Viability of the Project ……………………………..………………..… 49
1.7.1 Break Even Analysis without Discount 49
1.7.2 Break Even Analysis with discount 50
1.8 Risk Analysis …………..…………………………………………………….…… 52
1.8.1 Project Related Risks 52
1.8.2 Sensitivity Analysis 54
1.8.3 Scenario Analysis 56
2) Strategies Analysis …..………………….……...……………….……………..… . 57
2.1 Aviation Industry SWOT Analysis 57
2.2 Air Transport versus Railroad Transport 59
3) Conclusions ...………………………………………………………….…..……….. 61
4 References ………………………………………………………………………….. 62


1. Chapters

1.1) Existing Models Study
The existing models Survey for Regional & Domestic Market in India carried-out. At present as per the
present usage & placed orders by Airliners in India, A320-200 type 216 no.s; B737-800 type 88 no.s,
ATR72-500 type 87 no.s; A321-200 type 69 no.s aircrafts were used more for Regional and Domestic
Transportation (Short to Medium Range Hauls).
For Long-Range Services A330-200 type is 39; B787-800 type is 37 aircrafts were preferred.
But, For Regional & Domestic Market, out of the above available models A320-200, B737-800, ATR 72-500
is the most popular1.

1.2) Scope of Changes Proposed for New-Aircraft
From the fleets available & orders placed by Indian Airliners, Aircraft A320-200 is 216no.s. This is the more
preferred for Indian Domestic and Regional Passengers Market.

1.2.1) Existing Technology

The Airbus A320 family is Low-Wing Cantilever Monoplanes with a conventional tail unit with a single Fin
and Rudder. They have a retractable Tricycle Landing Gear and are powered by Two Wing Mounted
Turbofan Engines. Compared to other Airliners of the same class, the A320 features a wider Single-Aisle
Cabin of 155.5 inches (3.95 m) outside diameter, compared to 148 inches (3.8 m) in the Boeing 737 and
131.6 inches (3.34 m) in the Boeing 717, and Larger Overhead Bins, along with Fly-By-Wire Technology. In
addition, the aircraft has a Spacious Cargo hold equipped with large doors to assist in expedient loading and
unloading of goods.

The A320 features an ECAM (Electronic Centralized Aircraft Monitor) which gives the flight crew
Information about all the Systems of the Aircraft. With the exception of the very earliest A320s, most can be
upgraded to the latest Avionics Standards, keeping the Aircraft advanced even after Two Decades in service.
The flight deck is equipped with EFIS with side stick controllers. At the time of the aircraft' introduction, the
s
behavior of the Fly-By-Wire system (equipped with full flight envelope protection) was a new experience for
many pilots. Three suppliers provide Turbofan Engines for the A320 series: CFM International with
their CFM56, International Aero Engines, offering the V2500 and Pratt & Whitney whose PW6000 engines
are only available for the A318 variant.

The Airbus A320 family is the first to fully feature the Glass Cockpit and Digital Fly-By-Wire FCS in a Civil
Airliner. The only analogue instruments are the RMI (backup ADI on earlier models, replaced by
digital ISIS on later models) and brake pressure indicator. The first fully Digital Fly-By-Wire FCS in a Civil
Airliner, see A320 flight controls. Fully Glass Cockpit rather than the hybrid versions found in aircraft such
as the A310, Boeing 757and Boeing 767.The first Narrow Body Airliner with a significant amount of the


Structure made from Composites. The ECAM (Electronic Centralized Aircraft Monitoring) Concept, which is
included in all Airbus aircraft produced after the A320. This system constantly displays information
concerning the aircraft' engines, as well as other key systems such as flight controls, pneumatics and
s
hydraulics, to the pilots on the two LCD displays in the centre of the flight deck. ECAM also provides
Automatic Warning of System Failures and displays an Electronic Checklist to assist in handling the failure.

Newer Airbus used LCD (Liquid Crystal Display) units in the flight deck of its A318, A319, A320, and A321
flight decks instead of the original CRT (Cathode Ray Tube) displays. These include the main displays and
the backup artificial horizon, which was an analogue display prior to this. LCDs weigh less and produce less
heat than CRT displays; this change saves around 50 kilograms on the plane’s total weight. Early A320 planes
used the Intel 80186 and Motorola 68010, in 1988 Intel 80286 family CPUs. The Flight Management
Computer contained six CPUs, running in three logical pairs, with 2.5MB of memory. Digital Head-Up
displays are available. The A320 family is improved continuously, in the A320 Enhanced program and
the NSR, for "New Short-Range aircraft" as a far future replacement.

Table-1: A320-200 Present Specifications
A319-100 /
A318-100 A320-200 A321-200
A319LR /A319CJ
Cockpit
Two
Crew

132 (1-class, max) 156 (1-class, max) 180 (1-class, max) 220 (1-class, max)
Seating
117 (1-class, typ) 134 (1-class, typ) 164 (1-class, typ) 199 (1-class, typ)
Capacity
107 (2-class, typ) 124 (2-class, typ) 150 (2-class, typ) 185 (2-class, typl)

Length 31.44 m (103 ft 2 in) 33.84 m (111 ft 0 in) 37.57 m (123 ft 3 in) 44.51 m (146 ft 0 in)
Wing Span 34.10 m (111 ft 11 in)

Wing Area 122.6 m2 (1,320 sq ft)

Wing
25 degrees
Sweepback
12.56 metres
Tail Height 11.76 m (38 ft 7 in)
(41 ft 2 in)
Cabin
3.70 m (12 ft 2 in)
Width
Fuselage
3.95 m (13 ft 0 in)
Width
Cargo 27.62 m3 (975 cu ft) 37.41 m3 (1,321 cu ft) 51.73 m3 (1,827 cu ft)
21.21 m3 (749 cu ft)
Capacity 4× LD3 7× LD3 10× LD3

Empty 40,800 kg
39,500 kg (87,000 lb) 42,600 kg (94,000 lb) 48,500 kg (107,000 lb)
Weight, (90,000 lb)


typical

Maximum
Take-Off 68,000 kg 75,500 kg
78,000 kg (170,000 lb) 93,500 kg (206,000 lb)
Weight (150,000 lb) (166,000 lb)
(MTOW)
Cruising
Mach 0.78 ( 828kmph / 511mph at 11,000m / 36,000ft )
Speed
Maximum
Mach 0.82 ( 871kmph / 537mph at 11,000m / 36,000ft )
Speed
3,600 nautical miles
Maximum (6,700 km; 4,100 mi)
3,000 nautical
Range, 3,100 nautical miles LR: 5,600 nmi (10,400 km; 3,200 nautical miles
miles (5,600 km;
Fully (5,700 km; 3,600 mi) 6,400 mi) (5,900 km; 3,700 mi)
3,500 mi)
Loaded CJ: 6,500 nmi (12,000 km;
7,500 mi)
Take-Off
Run at
MTOW (at 1,355 m (4,446 ft) 1,950 m (6,400 ft) 2,090 m (6,860 ft) 2,180 m (7,150 ft)
Sea
Level, ISA)
24,050 litres
(5,290 imp gal;
6,350 US gal)
Maximum 24,210 L
24,210 L (5,330 imp gal; 6,400 US gal) standard standard
Fuel (5,330 imp gal;
30,190 L (6,640 imp gal; 7,980 US gal) optional 30,030 L
Capacity 6,400 US gal)
(6,610 imp gal;
7,930 US gal)
optional
Service
12,000 m (39,000 ft)
Ceiling
Pratt & Whitney
Engines PW6000 series
IAE V2500 series/CFM International CFM56-5 series
(×2) CFM International
CFM56-5 series
133–147
96–106 kilonewtons 98–120 kilonewtons (22,000– 111–120 KiloNewtons kilonewtons
Thrust (×2)
(22,000–24,000 lbf) 27,000 lbf) (25,000–27,000 lbf) (30,000–
33,000 lbf)


A320 Enhanced, A320 Enhanced (or A320E) is the working title for a series of improvements of the A320
series. The Improvements incorporate Engine Improvements, an Aerodynamic Tidy-Up, partly by adding
Large Curved Winglets, Weight Savings and a New Cabin.

Re-Engined A320, Airbus proposed a re-engining of the A320 to achieve the same 15% improvement in fuel
burn over the existing CFM56 and V2500 power plants as proposed by the Bombardier CSeries. Possible
engines include the CFM International LEAP-X and the Pratt & Whitney PW1000G.

New Winglets, Airbus A320 first class Enhanced Cabin Virgin America, In 2006, Airbus tested three styles
of Winglet, intended to counteract the wing’s Induced Drag and Wingtip Vortices more effectively than the
previous Wingtip Fence. The first design type to be tested was developed by Airbus and was based on work
done by the AWIATOR program. The second type of winglet used a more blended design and was created by
Winglet Technology LLC, a company based in Wichita, Kansas as well as the third type.

Two aircraft were used in the Flight Test Evaluation campaign, the prototype A320 F-WWBA which had
been retained by Airbus for testing and new F-WWDL which later delivered to JetBlue Airways and
registered as N636JB, which was fitted with both types of winglets. Despite the anticipated Efficiency gains
and development work, Airbus announced that the new Winglets will not be offered to Customers, claiming
that the weight of the modifications required would negate any Aerodynamic benefits.

On 17 December 2008, Airbus announced it was to begin flight testing a new Blended Winglet design
developed by Aviation Partners as part of an A320 modernization program. The aircraft used for the test
program is MSN001 (F-WWBA) the original A320 prototype airframe, powered by the CFM56 engine. On
15 November 2009, Airbus announced that it would be adding the Winglets, called '
Sharklets' to A320
,
aircraft commencing in 2012 with Air New Zealand. The Winglets reduce fuel burn by 3.5 percent and offer a
Payload increase of 500 kg or increase the aircraft' Range by 100 nm at the original Payload. This
s
corresponds to an annual CO2 reduction of around 700 tonnes per Aircraft.

New Enhanced Cabin, The Cabin was fitted to more than 600 Aircrafts (March 2009) since 2007. Airbus
claims it is offering better luggage Stowage and a quieter Cabin packaged with a more modern look and feel.
Additional improved Cabin Efficiency by a New Galley Concept, reduced weight, Improved Ergonomics and
Food Hygiene and Recycling requirements. LED ambience lighting is optionally available. Anytime LEDs
are used for the Passenger Service Unit (PSU) and passengers can get information with Touchscreen
Displays. Older A320 series aircraft can be updated.

Replacement Aircraft, Airbus is studying a future replacement for the A320 series, tentatively dubbed NSR,
for "New Short-Range aircraft". Airbus is possibly considering partnering with Embraer for a Replacement
Aircraft for the A320 series. In July 2007 it was reported that it may be built in "8-9 years" or "2017 or later".
The expected follow-on aircraft to replace the A320 is named A30X. Airbus North America President Barry
Eccleston states that the earliest the aircraft will be available is 2017. In January 2010, John Leahy, Airbus'
s


Chief Operating Officer Customers, stated that any all new single aisle craft is unlikely to be constructed
before 2024/2025.

The A320 family pioneered the use of digital Fly-By-Wire Flight Control Systems in a Commercial Aircraft.
Although there was a continuously improvement process since introduction, currently the A320
Enhanced program includes greater improvements. With over 4,000 built and an additional l 2,400 on order as
of November 2009, the Airbus A320 family is Airbus’s best-selling aircraft to date. It is also the currently
best-selling jet airliner family.

1.2.2) Deliveries

By the end of February 2010 a total of 6,539 aircraft of the A320 family has been ordered and 4,181
delivered. The following Chart shows the number of aircraft, by type, delivered to customers in a particular
year. The bottom row is the total yearly production of all A320 family aircraft.
Table-2 : A320 Family Deliveries
Type A318 A319 A320 A321 Total
1990 58 58
1991 119 119
1992 111 111
1993 71 71
1994 48 16 64
1995 34 22 56
1996 18 38 16 72
1997 47 58 22 127
1998 53 80 35 168
1999 88 101 33 222
2000 112 101 28 241
2001 89 119 49 257
2002 85 116 35 236
2003 8 72 119 33 232
2004 10 87 101 35 233
2005 9 142 121 17 289
2006 8 137 164 30 339
2007 17 105 194 51 367
2008 13 98 209 66 387
2009 6 88 221 87 402
2010 1 45 212 42 300
2010 Data is Incomplete; Source2


1.2.3) Required modifications for New-Commercial Aircraft;

Among these one to be selected, & Scope of Technical/Architectural/Landing at many Airports, Terminal
Size suitability, etc improvements to be recommended for making the proposed New-Aircraft best suites for
Indian Market (For Total Population, Airports, Landing, Passengers, Effecting Environment, Airliners,
Government, and Employment).

Take-Off & Landing: - Instead of Rolling-Wheels Landing Gear integrated to the Aircraft Fuselage,
which weights nearly 4% of MTOW3. Incase of A320-200, 4% of 78000kg is 3100kg. At least 2000kg weight
can be reduced. And also instead of TurboFan Engines with extra Fan, high strength Compressors & Turbine
rotating parts, can be replaced with Turbojet Engines (Less Weight), more fuel saving, reduced CO2
emission, etc.

a) ElectroMagnetic Propulsion for Take-Off and Braking for Landing

In similar way as in High-Speed Mag-Lev (Magnetic Levitation) trains, with created ElectroMagetic field
Aircraft will be levitated in the air, Magnetic repulsion & GasTurbine Engine propulsion forces can be
used for obtaining Take-Off speed 275 kmph in 32 seconds for rolling distance, 2.440km incase of A320-
200 Aircraft4. But presently incase of trains, picking-up 300kmph in 2.25 minutes time duration5.
Modifications to be done for this system suitable to A320-200 aircraft take-off speed.

b) Detachable and Attachable Wheeled-Carrier for Take-Off & Landing

Wheeled-Carrier with TurboShaft Engines requires less rolling distance will be carrying the Aircraft with
TurboJet engine and picks-up the Take-Off speed of 300kmph in 35seconds, after that Wheeled-Carrier &
Aircraft will be separated. At the time of Landing both speeds will be matched and attached together,
Wheeled-Carrier will be slowly braking.

c) Landing on Constructed Hydraulic Reservoirs OR in Sea for Sea-Shore Cities

Like in above cases, here Hydraulic reservoirs will be used for Take-Off & Landing purposes.

Winglets: - Long Streamline Wire body at the trailing edge of the winglets to further reduce the Vortices.

Fuselage:- Along the Fuselage longitudinal Fins, around circumference at specific pitch for guiding airflow
in streamlines to improve it further aerodynamically effective by attracting air close to fuselage by avoiding
air separation.

Engines: - Engines with more Power to Weight Ratio; Instead of more Power rated & Heavy Weight
Turbofan Engines, Less Weight & Power rated TurboJet Engines can be used. Reduces Weight of Aircraft,
improves Aircraft Performance.


1.3) Demand & Supply for proposed New-Aircraft

1.3.1) Indian Economy and Aviation Industry Growth Study;

Table-3: Indian Economic Survey 2009-10 Key Indicators

Data Categories & Components Units 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

1. GDP & Related Indicators
Rs. 5574449 6164178
GDP (Current Market Prices) 3239224 3706473 4283979 4947857
Crore QE AE

Growth Rate % na 14.4 15.6 15.5 12.7 10.6
Rs. 4154973 4453064
GDP(factor cost 2004-05 prices) 2967599 3249130 3564627 3893457
Crore QE AE

Growth Rate % na 9.5 9.7 9.2 6.7 7.2
% of
Savings Rate 32.2 33.1 34.4 36.4 32.5 na
GDP
% of
Capital Formation Rate 32.7 34.3 35.5 37.7 34.9 na
GDP
Per Cap.Net National Income
Rs 24095 27183 31080 35430 40141 43749
(factor cost at current prices)
2. Production
Mn
Food Grains 198.4 208.6 217.3 230.8 233.9 a na
tonnes
Index of Industrial Production
% 8.4 8.2 11.6 8.5 2.6 na
Growth
Electricity Generation Growth % 5.1 5.2 7.3 6.3 2.7 na
3. Prices
%
Inflation (WPI) (52-week average) 6.5 4.4 5.4 4.7 8.4 1.6 b
Change
%
Inflation CPI (IW) (average) 3.8 4.4 6.7 6.2 9.1 11.4 b
Change

4. External Sector
%
Export Growth (US$) 30.8 23.4 22.6 29 13.6 (20.3) c
Change
%
Import Growth (US$) 42.7 33.8 24.5 35.5 20.7 (23.6) c
Change
Current Account Balance (CAB)
% -0.4 -1.2 -1 -1.3 -2.4 (3.3) d
GDP
US$
Foreign Exchange Reserves 141.5 151.6 199.2 309.7 252 283.5 e
Bn.

Average Exchange Rate Rs/US$ 44.93 44.27 45.25 40.26 45.99 47.94 f
5. Money & Credit
%
Broad Money (Ma) (annual) 12 16.9 21.7 21.4 18.6 16.5 g
Change

Scheduled Com. Bank Credit % 27 30.8 28.1 22.3 17.5 13.9 g


(growth) Change

6. Fiscal Indicators (Centre)
% of
Gross Fiscal Deficit i 3.9 4 3.3 2.6 5.9 h 6.5 j
GDP
% of
Revenue Deficit i 2.4 2.5 1.9 1.1 4.4 h 4.6 j
GDP
% of
Primary Deficit i 0 0.4 -0.2 -0.9 2.5 h 2.8 j
GDP

7. Population Million 1089 1106 1122 1138 1154 1170
AE - Advance Estimates of GDP figures for 2009-10;
QE - Quick Estimates
na - not yet available/released for 2009-2010
a - for 2008-09 the figures are the 4th advance estimates as on July 21, 2009.
b - Average Apr. - Dec.2009.
c - Apr. - Dec.2009
d - CAB to GDP ratio for 2009-10 is for the period Apr.-Sept. 2009
e - as of December 31. 2009.
f - Average exchange rate for 2009-10 (Apr.-Sept.2009)
g - As on January, 2010.
h - Fiscal indicators for 2008-09 are based on the provisional actual for 2008-09.
i - Fiscal indicators are as per revised GDP at current market prices based on National Accounts 2001-05 series.
j - Fiscal deficit, revenue deficit and primary deficit were envisaged at 6.8, 4.8 and 3.0 per cent of GDP
6
respectively at the time of presentation of the 2009-2010 .

1.3.2) India’s Economic Outlook by IMF and Global Insight

• India’s GDP of over US $1.21 trillion makes it one of the 12 largest economies in the world, 4th largest in
terms of purchasing power parity.
• The 20-year India economic Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast at 6.5 percent per year is the second
highest in the world for large-GDP nations and is over double the world GDP forecast of 3.1 percent.
• One of the fastest growing economies in the world - growing at over 7% per year for the last 10 years
• India’s economy growth of 6.7% for 2008/09 exceeded expectation and the World Bank has projected its
economic expansion for 2010 at 8%7.

1.3.3) International Air Transport Association (IATA) Review

For the first time since 2000, in 2007 the Global Airline Industry turned profitable. Asian carriers have seen
minor drops in profitability but robust traffic growth to and within Asia to partially insulate carriers from the
impact of the crunch. The decrease in fuel prices helped operating profits. For the three months ending in
December 2009, Airlines spent nearly 32%-33% of operating revenues on fuel. Last year, the companies had
spent about 38%- 48% of operating revenues on fuel.


India’s airlines, more than the rest of the world, suffered severe losses with massive deliveries of aircraft and
falling yields following the economic slowdown. Hope seems to be on hand as airlines start to narrow losses
and come close to returning to 2007 figures. According to a survey carried out by the International Air
Transport Association (IATA), Airline Business confidence was up, though it did not necessarily mean a
return to profit8.
• Global Airline Industry loss of $9.0 billion forecasted for 2009, slightly lower than the $10.4 billion
loss in 2008, first quarter 2009 loss of more than $3.0 billion.
• Passenger demand is expected to contract 8%, cargo demand to fall 17% and revenue to decrease
15% compared to 2008.
• 2009 fuel cost is expected to fall back to $106 billion from a high of $165 billion in 2008. However,
this reduction will be more than offset by $80 billion (15%) revenue decline.
• The trend away from premium seats to more affordable economy seats, and budget carriers, is global.
• While the full service carriers (FSCs) are scaling back and consolidating, their LCC rivals are
expanding and gaining market share9.

1.3.4) Economic Growth during 2008-09

a) Overall GDP Growth, The overall growth of GDP at factor cost at constant prices in 2008-09, as per
revised estimates released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) (May 29, 2009) was 6.7 per cent.
This is lower than the 7 per cent projection in the Mid-Year Review 2008-09 (Economic Division,
Department of Economic Affairs (DEA), December 2008) and the advance estimate of 7.1 per cent,
released subsequently by CSO in February 2009. The growth of GDP at factor cost (at constant 1999-
2000 prices) at 6.7 per cent in 2008-09 nevertheless represents a deceleration from high growth of 9.0 per
cent and 9.7 per cent in 2007-08 and 2006-07 respectively;

The deceleration of growth in 2008-09 was spread across all sectors except mining & quarrying and
community, social and personal services. The manufacturing, electricity and construction sectors
decelerated to 2.4, 3.4 and 7.2 per cent respectively during 2008-09 from 8.2, 5.3 and 10.1 per cent
respectively in 2007-08. The slowdown in manufacturing could be attributed to the combined impact of a
fall in exports followed by a decline in domestic demand, especially in the second half of the year. The
rise in the cost of inputs during the beginning of the year and the cost of credit (through most of the year)
reduced manufacturing margins and profitability. The growth in production sectors, especially
manufacturing, was adversely affected by the impact of the global recession and associated factors. The
electricity sector continued to be hampered by capacity constraints and the availability of coal,
particularly during the first half of the year. As long as the coal sector remains a public sector monopoly
(the only remaining nationalized sector), it could remain a bottleneck for accelerated development of the
power sector.


The construction industry consists of different segments like housing, infrastructure, industrial
construction, commercial real estate, etc. While the industry went through a boom phase with growth as
high as 16.2 per cent in 2005-06 and continued to grow thereafter (albeit with moderation), the increase in
the costs of construction due to a rise in the prices of inputs like steel and cement and interest costs had
started impacting the industry. In certain segments of the industry, there was an excessive price build up
in the form of a speculative bubble, related to limited supply of urban land for those segments. The rise in
interest rates and the slowdown in housing loans also moderated demand. The double squeeze on the
costs, as well as the demand side, and the fall in the liquidity in mid-September 2008 precipitated a sharp
downturn in this sector. There followed a period (in the second half of the year) when demand had
already moderated, but costs remained high.

b) SUMMING-UP, The fallout of the global financial crisis on the Indian economy has been palpable in the
industry and trade sectors and has also permeated the services sector. While some segments, especially
the export-oriented industries, suffered during the second half of the year, the Indian economy has
withstood the adverse global economic situation and posted a growth rate of 6.7 per cent in 2008-09.

The economy continues to face wide-ranging challenges— from improving its social and physical
infrastructure to enhancing the productivity in agriculture and industry and addressing environmental
concerns. Meeting these challenges will be critical for improving India’s social and human development
indicators and the quality of life.

At the same time, the Indian economy has shock absorbers that will facilitate early revival of growth.
First, the banks are financially sound and well capitalized. The foreign exchange reserves position
remains comfortable and the external debt position has been within the comfort zone. The rate of inflation
has since abated and provides a degree of comfort on the cost side for the production sectors. Agriculture
and rural demand continue to be strong and agriculture production prospects are normal.

While there are indications that the economy may have weathered the worst of the downturn, in part, due
to the resilience of the economy and also various monetary and fiscal measures initiated during 2008-09,
nevertheless, the situation warrants close watch on various economic indicators including the impact of
the economic stimulus and developments taking place in the international economy. Taking policy
measures that squarely address the short and long-term challenges would help achieve tangible progress
and ensure that the outlook for the economy remains firmly positive10.

1.3.5) Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA) Review

The Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation (CAPA), a Sydney-based consulting firm, also estimates a 15% increase
in passenger volume in 2009. IATA had earlier predicted that Airline net losses will halve from $11 billion in
2009 to $5.6 billion in 2010. In the four years to March 2010, CAPA estimates Indian Carriers will have


accumulated operational losses of in excess of INR.260 billion, of which the three large Airline groups (Air
India, Jet Airways and Kingfisher Airlines) account for almost INR230 billion. It says losses for the current
financial year will be around INR 65 - 70 billion. Although it might take longer to get over total accumulated
losses, India’s private domestic airlines are expected to make a combined profit of $250million by the end of
the fiscal year ending in March 2011, says a recent report by CAPA.

The profitable and privately owned airline, budget carrier Indigo, is expected to have a higher profit (around
$17.6 million in 2009) than in previous years. The carrier is said to have the best on-time performance record-
82% for the year. Even national carrier Air India, which releases limited financials and operating metrics,
posted a net loss of $318 million, a 9.7% improvement from the October-December quarter in 2008. The rise
in traffic to 43.8 million passengers carried last year on Indian carriers was up from 42.8 million in 2007,
contributed to the improving financial state of the three listed Indian airlines. They benefited from an increase
in passenger traffic in the December quarter as well. Year-On-Year, Kingfisher flew 2.74 million passengers,
an increase of 4%, while Jet Airways carried 3.41 million passengers, a growth of 33%. SpiceJet’s passenger
traffic also reached 1.5 million during this year’s fiscal third quarter from nearly 1 million in the year-ago
period. Air India posted a 24.8% year-over-year increase in passenger numbers to 3.17 million and a 14.4-
point surge in load factor to 69.7%11.

1.3.6) ACEXC (Aviation Center of Excellence India) Review

India is starting to see a more favourable environment as the Economy appears to be recovering earlier than
expected, with GDP growth of 7.9% in the last quarter, ahead of expectations. The World Bank projects an
annual growth of 8% per annum from 2011 to 2014, says Kapil Kaul CEO, Indian subcontinent & Middle
East; CAPA. Indian Economy maintained its momentum of good growth. With positive indicators such as a
stable 8 to 9 % annual growth, rising foreign exchange reserves, a booming capital market and a rapid rise in
FDI in the last year, India has emerged as the second fastest growing major economy in the world.

2007 was a memorable year for the Indian Aviation in many ways; The Industry continued to witness strong
growths despite rising Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices, Infrastructure bottlenecks, shortage of Pilots and
Qualified Manpower. Indian carriers continued placing sizeable aircraft orders and expanded their domestic
and international networks. The first non-stop flights to the US by Air India and the first international flights
to US and Canada by Jet Airways were a welcome connectivity to both the national traveler as well as the
large Indian diaspora in North America. Carriers remained optimistic to turn profitable, with increased
operational efficiencies, cost management and, for some, synergies that would be derived through
consolidation. For the first 7 months of the fiscal year 2007-08, April - October 2007, the overall passenger
traffic stood at 65.57 million, with Domestic at 49.35 million and International at 16.22 million respectively.
The total cargo traffic recorded 989 thousand tones, with Domestic at 325 thousand tonnes and International
at 664 thousand tonnes in the same period. The total aircraft movement numbers were 736,703 with Domestic
at 599,346 and International at 137,357 during the same period.


New Aviation Policy paved the way for improved Infrastructure, better Connectivity, an increased number of
Aviation Carriers and new Regional Airlines and Freighters taking off into the Indian skies. The airlines
much-awaited SOPs from the government on the ATF prices; Airport development policy directives for
Green field and Merchants Airport Projects. Travelers’ looking forward for cheap airfares, on-time arrivals
and departures, new in-flight entertainment, retailing and internet connectivity in the skies12.How far these
will be fulfilled remains to be seen, with crude oil prices not showing signs of any let-up, and airlines more
focused on returning value to their shareholders. Along with the other players in the Industry, Realty and
Information Technology companies will benefit greatly by participating in the development of the Indian
Aviation Industry.

1.3.7) Indian Aviation Industry
The Indian Aviation Industry is one of the fastest growing aviation industries in the world with Private
Airlines accounting for more than 75 per cent of the sector. With a CAGR at 18 per cent and 454 airports, of
which 16 are designated as international airports, Union Civil Aviation Minister Praful Patel has stated that
aviation sector will witness revival by 2011. With an increase in Traffic movement during December 2009
and increase in revenues by almost US$ 21.4 million, the Airports Authority of India seems to accrue better
margins this fiscal, as per the latest estimates released by the Ministry of Civil Aviation. This is being
primarily attributed to increase in the share of revenue from Delhi International Airport Limited (DIAL) and
Mumbai International Airport Limited (MIAL) along with increase in airport charges.

The Hyderabad International Airport has been ranked amongst the World' Top Five in the annual Airport
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Service Quality (ASQ) passenger survey along with airports at Seoul, Singapore, Hong Kong and Beijing.
The Hyderabad International Airport is managed by a Public-Private joint venture consisting of the GMR
Group, Malaysia Airports Holdings Berhad and both the State Government of Andhra Pradesh and Airports
Authority of India (AAI).Airports Authority of India (AAI) is also spending US$ 427.5 million on developing
the airports in Kolkata and another US$ 384.7 million on Chennai airport. The AAI is also looking at
upgrading and modernising Non-Metro Airports. Both Chennai and Calcutta airports will be completed by
next year. In addition to actual Airport Infrastructure, the government is also looking at building infrastructure
in the air in terms of Air Traffic Control (ATC) and CNS systems. Safety and surveillance is another huge
area being worked upon. The Civil Aviation ministry has prepared a blueprint to convert Delhi airport into an
international hub for passenger airlines with effect from August 2010 to help the airport, which is being
expanded by a GMR-led consortium, utilise large amounts of additional capacity that will be ready by July
2010.
Under the plan, NACIL will set up its hub in Delhi (Delhi currently serves as the hub for domestic operations
and Mumbai for international operations).The Government is also planning to make Delhi a regional hub to
connect South-East Asia to Europe by capitalising on the capital’s strategic mid-point location, according to
ministry sources. State governments too are taking interest in setting up special economic zones (SEZs) for
the Aerospace Industry.


Investment Policy, with the draft FDI compendium being finalised in end of March 2010, changes are
expected in the aviation policy too.

• Foreign equity participation in Airport Infrastructure is permitted upto 74 per cent with automatic
approvals and upto 100 per cent in special permission.
• FDI upto 40 per cent is permitted in Domestic Air-Transport Services.
• Foreign investors are allowed to have representation (upto 33 per cent in Domestic Airline companies).

The Road Ahead, Investment opportunities of US$ 110 billion are being envisaged up to 2020 with US$
80 billion in new Aircrafts and US$ 30 billion in development of Airport Infrastructure, according to the
Investment Commission of India.

• Indian aerospace companies are growing too. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) was ranked 40th in
Flight International' list of the top 100 Aerospace Companies last year.
s
• Aircraft manufacturing major, Boeing is in the process of setting up the US$ 100 million proposed
Maintenance Repair Overhaul (MRO) facilities in Delhi. Air India is also in the process of launching
Cargo Hub in Nagpur while Deccan Aviation has already started one from the city.
• North India' first private sector Greenfield international airport, Aerotropolis, will soon come up near the
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industrial hub of Ludhiana in Punjab. Aerotropolis will be built with an allocation of almost US$ 3.77
billion covering an area of 3000 acres by Messrs Bengal Aerotropolis which has partnered Changi
International Airport of Singapore.
• Punjab will also become the first state in the country to set up a Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul
(MRO) hub at Ropar, 45 km from Chandigarh, for the Civil Aviation sector at a cost of US$ 6.4 million.
• The country' first SEZ dedicated to the Aerospace, Hattaragi, 37 km from Belgaum, in Karnataka was
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also inaugurated. The SEZ is spread over 300 acres of land and will come up with an investment of US$
32.06 million in November 2009.

An Aerospace and Precision Engineering Special Economic Zone with a proposed investment of US$
641.2 million has also come up at Adibatla, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh. Exchange rate used: 1 USD
= 46.79 INR (as on December 2009)13.

1.3.8) Aircrafts & Parts Market

India’s new draft Civil Aviation Policy puts greater emphasis on private sector participation to ensure
promotes investment in this sector. It also aims to woo foreign investors. The proposed new civil aviation
policy will open up vast Indian market for aircraft, Avionics equipment and other related businesses for
foreign investors. The Global giants of Aviation Industries, Gulfstream, EuroCopters, Airbus, Bombardier or
Boeing, all are flocking towards the Indian market. They were all likely to be seen at the Indian Aviation
2010 show. Their motive of attending the show was to display their products, sell their products, do corporate


marketing and search for the prospective clients along with the curiosity to know about the prospering Indian
economy. Aviation market in India has shown humongous growth in the last 10 years and in the next 20 years
it is expected to fulfill the demand of around 1000 aircrafts as most of the aviation giants are projecting India
for their requirements. The market has been able to pump in $100 million from American manufacturers to set
up an MRO facility in Nagpur. Airbus is also expected to peg $138 billion in Indian market for the
manufacture of 1032 aircrafts. Same is expected from other aircraft giants14.

a) GE Aviation to spend $300 mn in India, Commercial and military jet engine maker GE Aviation, a
unit of General Electric Co., plans to spend some $300 million (around Rs1, 368 Crore) in India ahead of
deadline to fulfill its obligations for engine purchases by flag carrier Air India, said country director Nalin
Jain. The so-called offset obligation is part of an order placed by Air India for 111 Airbus and Boeing
aircraft in 2005 and 2006, valued at $11 billion at list prices. GE Aviation is the key engine supplier for
these aircraft together with CFM International, it’s 50:50 joint venture with France’s Snecma SA. GE
Aviation undertook to source aircraft engine components from Indian suppliers and invests in India part
of the value of the deal to the tune of $300 million in offsets. The timeline is till 2020, Jain said in an
interview on the sidelines of the India Aviation 2010 air show in Hyderabad earlier this month. Jain said
GE had tied up with a dozen manufacturing firms, including Godrej Group and state-owned military
plane maker Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, to source Aeronautical components for engines to meet the
offset obligations. These include parts for CFM engines15.
b) Indigenous Development & Manufacturing, The National Aerospace Laboratories (NAL),
Bangalore, has prepared Rs.12 billion preliminary proposal to build technologies for a 50-70-seater
'
regional'aircraft designed to suit India' specific needs. According to NAL projections, the market for a
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50-70 seater Turboprop Aircraft, RTA-70 in the country would increase over the next two and a half
decades, with an overall requirement building up for nearly 200 aircraft of all various sizes over the next
5 years. To date, NAL has developed the two-seater trainer aircraft, HANSA, presently being used by a
dozen flying clubs in the country, as well as the SARAS, a multi-role light transport aircraft development
started in 1990, which has already completed 100 flight tests and is expected to go into commercial
production by 2008, but still to date is in Proto Type-2 is in testing. For very light aircraft (2-19 seats)
India is in the process of establishing a domestic industry with both Indigenous production and
manufacture through collaborations with mainly European manufacturers. For aircraft engines, players
include GE Aircraft Engines, Pratt and Whitney of USA and Rolls Royce from the UK, Snecma from
France, & EuroJet from Germany.

1.3.9) Partnerships & Mergers

While many international companies expressed interest and are evaluating options to forge alliances with
Indian Aviation companies, many inked varied deals this year. Among them were:
• ATR and Deccan to set up new Flight Training Centre at Bangalore.


• L&T and EADS for exploring joint opportunities in aerospace and defense Indian formed an alliance with
CFM international, GMR - Hyderabad International Airport, Airbus, and Jupiter Aviation for an MRO
centre.
• Jet Airways signed a MoU with Lufthansa Technik AG for its Aircraft Maintenance, and a Code-share
agreement with Brussels Airlines and American Airlines.
• Hawker Beechcraft signed a sales and services agreement with InterGlobe Aviation, owners of IndiGo.
• Kingfisher signed a frequent flyer partnership programme with Continental Airlines.
• Air India was invited to join the Star Alliance group of Airlines, which will give Air India an access to a
network of 17,000 daily flights to 897 destinations in 160 countries.
• HAL tied up with CAE to set up helicopter simulator training centre in Bangalore, going to have Joint
venture with Rolls-Royce, UK, for Civil Aircraft Engines.
• Boeing along with Air India is to set up a MRO in Bangalore.
• Punj Llyod and New York-based private investment firm Global Technology Investment firm picked up a
stake in Air Works Engineering, an organization involved in aircraft maintenance, to expand their
aviation infrastructure and services started at aerospace manufacturing site of TAAL, Hosur.
The year marked three major mergers in Indian Aviation history: Air India, the national carrier, and Indian
(formerly Indian Airlines), the state owned domestic carrier, creating a unified, public-owned entity under the
name National Aviation Company India Ltd (NACIL).The merger will create an airline that will have over
125 new-generation aircraft by 2010. Its fleet size would also see the merged entity break into the top 30
airlines in the world, and amongst the top 10 in Asia. It will also become India' first airline with a fleet of
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over 100 aircrafts.

Private Carriers: Jet Airways and Air Sahara

Jet Airways bought over its smaller rival, Air Sahara, for Indian Rupees 14.50 billion ($363m), at a discount
of 34% from the earlier agreed price of Indian Rupees 22.00 billion, after clearance by a three-member
arbitration panel, ending months of animosity and legal dispute. Air Sahara was renamed to JetLite.

Air-Deccan, India' first Low Cost Carrier (LCC), with Kingfisher Airlines, the high profile Airline
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promoted by the liquor baron, Mr.Vijay Mallya; Kingfisher Airlines (a company of parent United Breweries
Holdings Ltd) acquired 26% of Air Deccan parent, Deccan Aviation Ltd, and subsequently made an offer to
acquire an additional 20% of Deccan priced at the same price of Indian Rupees 155 ($3.82) per share. The
combined fleet of 71 aircraft consisting of A320 family and ATR aircraft will operate 537 flights to 69 Indian
cities.

1.3.10) Airports

There was heightened interest in airports during the year, and a collective effort by the government together
with private participation to develop and improve the infrastructure that is so sorely needed by the industry


for its future growth. The airport modernization programme took wing in Delhi and Mumbai, and the two
Greenfield Airports of Bangalore and Hyderabad were completed in March 2008, though with some degree of
trepidation at Bangalore. The anticipated long commute over the inadequate approach road to the new
Bangalore International Airport (BIAL) appears to have been omitted from the development plan, raising
protests from potential users.

Modernisation and expansion of Chennai and Kolkata are projected to begin in the first half of 2008;
besides, as many as 35 non-metro airports are planned to be modernised at an estimated cost of about Indian
Rupees 50 billion. These are expected to be complete by March 2010. The target is to upgrade all 35 airports
by 2012, according to Praful Patel Minister of Civil Aviation, answering a query in Rajya Sabha. New
airports are also being constructed and developed at Vishakhapatnam in Andhra Pradesh; Shimoga, Bijapur,
Gulbarga, Hassan and Karwar in Karnataka, Kannur in Kerala; Chennai in Tamil Nadu; Itanagar and Tawang
in Arunachal Pradesh; Chiethu in Nagaland; Kokrajhar in Assam; Greater Noida and Agra in Uttar Pradesh;
Ajmer (Kishangarh) and Kota in Rajasthan; Halwara in Punjab; Surankote and Kishtwar in Jammu &
Kashmir; Durgapur in West Bengal; Sindhudurg, Shirdi and Chakan in Maharashtra, also given an
‘inprinciple’ approval for setting up new Greenfield Airports at Navi Mumbai, Sindhudurg in Maharashtra,
Mopa in Goa, Bijapur, Simoga, Hassan and Gulbarga in Karnataka, Pakyong in Sikkim, Durgapur in West
Bengal and Datia/Gwalior in Madhya Pradesh. International Airports at Bagdogra and Mohali, Secondary
airports at Sriprembadur near Chennai, Noida near Delhi, Merchant Airports or Small, Private Airports
developed and owned by private players, are all the subject of interest and discussion. Several players, both
Indian and International, have evinced interest in participating in the airport development program, also
Mobile Airports coming soon to India.

Airports Authority of India (AAI) plans to incur expenditure of Rs.12434 Crores for modernisation of
Airports and Air Traffic Services across the country during XIth Five Year Plan period (2007-2012).Two
Greenfield Airports each at Bangalore and Hyderabad with an investment of Rs. 2400 Crores and Rs. 2920
Crores have been made operational in 2008 under Public Private Partnership. Besides, development of IGI
Airport, New Delhi and CSI Airport, Mumbai with estimated cost of Rs. 8975 Crores and Rs. 9802 Crores
respectively has been undertaken under PPP.

1.3.11) Government' Role
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To benchmark international standards and practices, the government brought out an amendment to the
Aircraft Act 1934.With the objective of creating a level playing field and fostering healthy competition
amongst all airports, and regulation of tariffs of aeronautical services, the government has decided to set up an
Airport Economic Regulatory Authority (AERA), The government also increased the entry barriers for
the industry by raising the minimum equity base needed to start an airline from the current requirement of
INR.100 million to INR.200 million for smaller aircraft, and INR 500 million from INR 300 million for larger
aircraft with takeoff weight of more than 40,000 kgs.


In order to expand air connectivity to Tier-II and Tier-III cities and to promote regional air connectivity, a
separate category of permit, Scheduled Air Transport (Regional) Services, has been introduced by the
government. Three airlines, one from the South, Star Aviation, and two from the North, Jagson and MDLR
Airlines, have been granted the No Objection Certificate to operate scheduled transport services. To meet the
growing demand of pilots, the government has tied up with leading Canadian aviation firm, Canadian
Aviation Electronics (CAE) Inc, to set up a flight-training institute at Gondia in Maharashtra, and to manage
operations at Indira Gandhi Rashtriya Udaan Academy (IGRUA) in Rae Bareilly.

Air Services Agreements; The government also did their bit to sustain the growth of Indian Aviation.
Taking forward the policy of liberalization, the government signed Air Services agreements and enhanced
traffic rights with the USA, Singapore, Cambodia, Jordan, UAE (Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah), Kuwait,
Uzbekistan, Malaysia, Chile and Hong Kong, leading to more flights and better connectivity between these
countries and India. Also the government opened up the Gulf sector to private carriers by granting Jet
Airways the traffic rights to the Gulf and Middle East routes.

International Airlines; Recognising the potential of the Indian market, various international airlines
including Air Arabia, Qatar Airways, Continental Airlines, Oman Air, Emirates, Egypt Air, Silk AIR, Tiger
Airways, China Eastern, Srilankan Airlines, Malaysian Airlines and Finnair, boosted and expanded their India
operations. British Airways listed India as their second largest market next to US.

Air-Cargo; Air Cargo experienced renewed interest demonstrated by government and private companies. In
August, India Post launched its freight operations from Kolkata to Guwahati, Agartala and Imphal. Air India
launched dedicated cargo services to Europe, and signed a wet lease pact with GATI for domestic operations.
Several players, SAFEX, AVICORE and Quick Jet are said to be planning a foray into the domestic airfreight
market which is currently dominated by BlueDart Aviation. First Flight, which launched its freighter
operations in July 2006 and retreated from operations this year, has announced its plan to re-enter the market
with Boeing 737-300 freighters. Deccan Chronicle promoted Flyington Freighters is expected to launch
International Operations in the coming year. The Government also succeeded in reducing cargo dwell times at
airports from five to three days. Logistics Services are also on the growth path in line with Global
developments. Courier Companies like DHL, BlueDart, Elbee, and SkyPak are expanding their infrastructure
along with expansion of their markets both within and outside India.

Business Jets; According to a new analysis from Frost & Sullivan on World Business Jets Markets, both the
demand for business jets and the increase in corporate profits rise in tandem. Our India Inc illustrates this
insight very well. The Aircraft Acquisition Committee of the Ministry of Civil Aviation has provided its '
No
Objection Certificate' the Mukesh Ambani-promoted Reliance Commercial Dealers Private Ltd., for the
to
import of a Boeing Business Jet (BBJ), one Global XRS and two Falcons. GVK Aviation Private Ltd. has
been permitted to import three aircraft including one Global 5000, one Learjet 45 and one Bombardier
Challenger 604.


Other companies buying such planes for business and private use include Sun TV Network Ltd., Taj Air,
Emaar MGF Land Pvt. Ltd, Bharat Forge Ltd., Raymonds Ltd., VRL Logistics Ltd., Hindustan Constructions
Ltd., DS Constructions Ltd., and Punj Lloyd Ltd. The Air Charter market is also growing, with demand for
renting out of aircraft growing in the recent years. Invision Projects Pvt. Ltd. has signed a contract for 18
Phenom 100 and two Phenom 300 executive jets at the Dubai Air Show 2007.

Fuel Prices; Fuel prices continued to zoom to staggering heights. As per a report compiled by the
Federation of Indian Airlines (FIA), “Improving the financial health of India' Airline Industry through
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reduction in the cost of ATF”, the estimated annual fuel bill for the industry, based on the September 2006
rates (INR.43, 989 per kilolitre) is around $1.7 billion. The cost of ATF in India remains the highest in the
Asia–Pacific region. According to a report released by ASSOCHAM, Domestic aircraft operators pay over
eight times more taxes on Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF). The fuel used by Jetliners is loaded with various tax
levies, as a result of which Domestic Airlines pay a total of 66% tax on ATF, compared with the 8% paid by
International Airlines that fuel ATF in India. The largest component of operating expenses for airlines, ATF
accounts for almost 35 to 40% of the total Operating Costs.

Online Travel Booking; The growing online travel booking is driven by easy access and convenience. The
added benefit is that it is cheaper to book air tickets online. According to a recent media report, the online
travel segment is expected to grow at a rate of 30% and reach INR.70 billion by the end of 2007-08 Online
portals like makemytrip.com, yatra.com, ixigo.com, cleartrip.com and ezeego1.com, among others, are all
enjoying strong, positive growths coupled with stiff competition, and enabling wider choice and quality of
service to the increasing internet audience.

1.3.12) Forecasts for Aviation Market

ACMG; A forecast by the Air Cargo Management Group (ACMG) projects that the Global Freighter fleet
will be more than double in size from 1,801 units now to 3,883 units in 2026.

Airbus Inc.; With orders for over 300 aircraft from Airlines like Kingfisher Airlines, Air Deccan, IndiGo,
GoAir, Indian Airlines and a Freighter company, European aircraft major Airbus has projected that India will
need 1,000 new planes over the next 20 years16.

Boeing Inc.; Though it has orders worth $275 billion for supplying 3,700 aircraft to various airlines across
the world, taking at least five years for the company to meet the demand. Boeing is eyeing up $20 bn in
defence orders from India. Bullish about India’s growing aviation market, Boeing sees a $20 billion
opportunity in the defence sector alone over the next decade. The company is also eyeing $105 billion worth
of orders for over 1,000 commercial airplanes from various Indian carriers over the next 20 years. Indian has
defence orders pending worth $15-$20 billion for F/A-18 Super Hornet combat jets, P8I maritime
surveillance aircraft and Apache combat helicopters. Air India has purchased airplanes worth $25 billion


during last three years. Boeing already has collaborations with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited, Bharat
Electronics Limited, the Tatas and other companies for manufacturing aerospace components. Boeing
recently entered into a $500 million joint venture with the Tatas to manufacture aerospace components on the
back of a $1 billion tie-up with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited in the same sphere.

Heavy Maintenance MRO Facility Delhi; During 2008, Air India announced its intention to set up a
heavy maintenance facility in Delhi. In a joint venture with European Aeronautic Defence and Space
Company (EADS) they are to set up an Aircraft’s Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) centre in Delhi,
the state-owned carrier’s Airbus aircraft. The Centre, which was planned to start operations from early 2009
at the India Gandhi International Airport, will become a member of the Airbus MRO Network. The
Government’s National Aviation Company of India Ltd (NACIL) owns Air India, while Airbus is an arm of
EADS. The two firms will initially be 50-50 equity partners in the joint venture, but possibly, a third Airbus
network partner, a local EADS affiliate company, will join later. The total Project Cost has been estimated at
$40 million spread over five years.

As per the agreement, the joint venture will initially undertake Airframe Maintenance and Repair of NACIL’s
Airbus aircrafts. Later, the facility will service other types of aircraft like the ATR, Aircrafts of other Airlines,
and Aircrafts outside the Airbus family, as well as entering the Component Maintenance Business. NACIL is
currently in the process of inducting 43 new A320 aircrafts from Airbus into its fleet. The induction program,
which started last year, will continue till early 2010. Currently, it operates 74 Airbus aircraft. EADS officials
said the MRO facility would also cater to the markets in South Asia region and neighbouring countries. By
2013, over 100 single-aisle aircraft and around 10 wide body aircraft would be maintained and the centre
would employ 250 to 300 Indian technical personnel.

Aircraft MRO at Nagpur; Air India said the airline was setting up four MROs in the next couple of years.
Another MRO, TATA Group joint venture with Boeing is under progress at Nagpur. Air India, which placed
orders for 111 aircraft in 2005, will also set up MROs for engines and components. The aircraft will be
inducted in a phased manner by 2012. Aircraft maker Boeing signed a land lease agreement with Maharashtra
Airport Development Co. (MADC) for setting up a $100-million maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO)
facility. The state-run MADC will provide land for the project. Boeing chose Nagpur for setting up the
facility as there is ample availability of manpower and land. The city also provides favourable climatic
conditions for the facility. All this makes India an exception. While Boeing announced that it would slash
10,000 jobs worldwide, demand in India, makes that location the exception to the rule. Up to now, Indian
Carriers got their aircraft serviced at MRO facilities in the US, Europe and West Asia. India is expected to
have over 500 aircraft by 2010.

Air Works MRO at Hosur; Air Works with Taneja Aerospace Aviation Ltd, at Hosur started services
such as line and base maintenance, aircraft painting, component and structural repairs as well as cabin and
avionics upgrades. Air Works also became India' first DGCA approved independent Airline MRO in
s


November 2008 for its commercial operations in Hosur (near Bengaluru). Air Works is among the country'
s
leaders in the Air Transport Services sector. With an extensive and skilled work force of over 450 employees
across 10 airports in the country, Air Works manages India' largest aviation technical staff and provides
s
comprehensive services for fixed and rotary wing aircrafts. India’s first aircraft overhauling facility is already
started at Hosur.

Mumbai-based Aviation Service provider, Air Works has begun commercial operations of its MRO
(Maintenance, Repair and Overhauling) facility at Hosur near Bangalore, eventually employing over 300
Aircraft Engineers. No other MRO facility has come up yet in India so far. An opportunity exists to hire good
aircraft engineers now, while there is so much chaos in the aviation sector elsewhere, owing to Global
Economic slowdown. M/s.Air Works is also in the process of bidding for setting up an Original Equipment
Manufacturer (OEM) facility at the Delhi and Mumbai airports, and has tied up with Zurich-based Jet
Aviation, an MRO service provider for Business Jets and other Small aircraft. At present, Air Works plans to
invest upward of $50 million for setting up the infrastructure to support the commercial MRO initiative.
Initially, Air Works will provide services for ATR 42/72 mid-sized aircraft; currently, India has 80 such
aircraft. In the first year, the company handled 12 aircraft, mostly ATR types, and expects to earn $50 million
in the next two years. M/s.Air Works provides a broad range of aviation related services covering three main
verticals:

• General Aviation Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul (GA MRO); Full-line maintenance and modifications
for fixed and rotary wing business and general aviation aircraft.
• Airline Maintenance, Repair & Overhaul (A MRO); India' first independent Airline MRO with initial
s
capabilities for line, base and AOG support for ATR 42/72, B737 series and A320 series.
• Aircraft Sales, Management & Charters; Aircraft Sales (Gulfstream & Pre-owned), Aircraft Operational
Management Services, Aircraft Charters, Flight Support Services17.

Sukhoi Inc., Moscow-based Russian Aircraft, an arm of United Aircraft Corporation, expects to sell 100 of
its Ilyushin series of aircraft, IL114, in India over the next 3 years. The company, through its marketing
agency Hindavia Aeronautical Services Limited, is talking to scheduled Regional Carriers across the country
to sell the TurboProp aircraft which can seat 44-64 people. The Low-Flying Aircraft (around 7000 metres)
can fly at its best efficiency up to 1000 km. "These aircraft are best suited to Short-hauls and most suitable to
Regional Airlines. Mr.Pavel Melnikov spoke at Indian Aviation 2008 Expo, according to him, the market for
such small aircraft in India is 500 airplanes over the next 3 years. The older versions of IL series, which will
compete with ATR twin TurboProp Aircraft, have so far been deployed in Russian Airliner Viborg and
Uzbekish Airlines18.


1.4) Air-Traffic Projections, Demand and Supply

1.4.1) Air-Traffic Study

Domestic traffic is bouncing back to previous levels though yields continue to take a beating. The country’s
major airlines – SpiceJet, Kingfisher Airlines and Jet Airways released their quarterly earnings for three
months ending December 2009. Jet Airways led in market share at 26.9% for the main line carrier and JetLite
combined. It posted a profit of $23 million, up 149% from the same period last year. Kingfisher Airlines
captured a market share of 20.8% and recorded a loss of $91 million widened by a marginal loss of 2%,
compared with the third quarter of fiscal 2008. SpiceJet garnered a market share of 12.9% and registered a net
profit of $24 million, up from a net loss of $3.8 million in the same quarter year-ago period.


Passenger numbers through India’s Airports have trebled in just six years from 40 million in 2001/02 to
almost 120 million in 2007/08.While International Traffic has more than doubled; the driver for this
phenomenal growth has been the deregulated Domestic market which has seen demand more than triple to 87
million passengers. Delhi and Mumbai are by far the country’s busiest airports with a similar mix of
international and domestic traffic. Last year Mumbai passed 23 million passengers, enabling it to rank in the
Top 15 of Asia/Pacific airports for the first time19.

According to a forecast by National Council of Applied Economic Research, about 200 million households
will be able to afford air travel by 2010. By 2005 Indian airports are estimated to handle 60 million
international passengers; 1.2 million tonnes of international cargo; and 300,000 tonnes of domestic cargo.
Over next 7-10 years from 1999, Growth in domestic passenger traffic is estimated to grow by 12.5 percent
per annum. Growth in international passenger traffic during this period is expected to be around 7 percent per
annum. Domestic cargo traffic is estimated to grow at 4.5 percent per annum. Growth in international cargo
traffic is estimated at 12 percent. Air-Cargo traffic is rapidly increasing in India. A number of major
international air carriers including Lufthansa, KLM, and British Airways have increased their cargo capacities
from India20.

Table-4 : Air-Traffic Projections
International
Domestic Passengers Increase
Year Passengers Increase (in %)
(in million) (in %)
(in million)
1996 -97 (Actual) 12.00 10.5 10.8 7
1997-98 13.26 10.25 11.6 7
1998-99 14.65 10.5 12.4 7
1999-2000 16.2 10.5 13.3 7
2000-01 17.57 10.5 14.1 7
2001-02 19.06 8.5 14.9 6
2002-03 20.68 8.5 15.8 6
2003-04 22.44 8.5 16.8 6
2004-05 24.35 8.5 17.8 6
2005-06 25.05 7 18.8 5.5
2006-07 27.87 7 19.8 5.5
2007-08 29.82 7 20.9 5.5
2008-09 31.91 7 22.1 5.5
2009-10 34.15 7 23.3 5.5
2010-11 36.54 7 24.6 5.5
2011-12 39.09 7 25.9 5.5


2012-13 41.44 6 27.2 4.9
2013-14 43.93 6 28.5 4.9
2014-15 46.56 6 29.9 4.9
2015-16 49.35 6 31.4 4.9
2016-17 52.32 6 32.9 4.9
21
Source

Airlines fly to Smaller Cities for Growth in Passenger Traffic; India’s Airlines are charting new routes to
connect neglected, smaller cities that have some tourist or business potential, as the economy brightens and
passenger numbers rise. Airlines saw a spurt in passenger traffic, growing by 5.45% to 39.96 million between
January and November, according to the regulator Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA).The
number had contracted as much as 4.84% to 42.85 million in 2008.Kingfisher Airlines Ltd and regional
airline Jagson Airlines Ltd are among those planning to harness the potential of smaller Airports. “The bigger
airlines have a focus on Category-I (Metro) routes by default, but category-II routes like smaller capital cities
make a lot of sense,” said M/s.Jagson CEO, Mr.Koustav M. Dhar. It will connect Srinagar to Leh with a daily
flight starting. So far, only Air India has a weekly flight between the two cities.

“Those (Connecting State Capitals and Smaller Cities) are the sectors to be in and they are consistent all year
around at Rs.4000 - 4500 (Average Fare),” said Dhar, comparing the average fare on the Delhi-Mumbai route,
which can drop below Rs.3000 due to competition. “(However), if you put 180 seats on category II, they are
not viable.” Jagson will also connect New Delhi to Shimla and Dharamshala, and operate flights to Ranchi
and Patna in summer on alternate days. Kingfisher Airlines has also started flights between Chennai and the
industrial town, Salem in Tamil Nadu, and Jharkhand’s capital Ranchi and Chhattisgarh’s capital Raipur
recently. It has also received permission to start services to Uttarakhand’s Pantnagar from New Delhi. Also on
the cards are flights to the hosiery and garments hub of Ludhiana in Punjab from New Delhi. A Kingfisher
official said the airline is waiting for regulatory clearances before it can take off to Pantnagar and Ludhiana.
“Since these are new airfields, DGCA is still to clear them,” he said. National carrier Air India already flies
between several small towns in the country22.

Indian Domestic Growth Momentum continues in Oct-2009; The Indian market has rebounded in the
second half of this year, as the domestic Economy remained strong. Despite some improvement in airline
yields, domestic Indian air traffic continued its very powerful recovery in Oct-2009, with India’s Ministry of
Civil Aviation (MoCA) reporting 27% growth in domestic passengers to 4.0 million in Oct-2009.


India Domestic Passengers and Growth: Oct-2008 to Oct-2009

The market, which contracted for 12 consecutive months to Jun-2009, is showing signs of recovery off the
lower base levels in the 2008 period. Traffic growth bottomed out in Dec-2008, when passenger numbers
slumped 22%.

Indian Carriers Domestic Market Share: Oct-2009

Among the LCCs, IndiGo had the highest domestic market share, at 13.6%, followed by SpiceJet (12.4%) and
GoAir (5.4%), while a combined Jet Airways/JetLite, whose passenger levels fell last month due to its pilot
strike, had a combined 27.7% Market share, followed by Kingfisher Airlines followed at 20.7%. Air India
also gained market share in the month, to 18.6 %.

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