John Kemp, da Reuters, apresenta dados sobre o mercado de petróleo no mundo e impactos econômicos sobre o agronegócio. Apresentado no Seminário Perspectivas para o Agribusiness 2016-2017 em 16/06/2016, em São Paulo.

1. Global oil outlook 2016-2018
Supply, demand and prices
JOHN KEMP
REUTERS
June 2016
(John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)

2. Real oil price quadrupled 2002-14, then fell 70% 2014-16

3. Real oil price averaged >$100 per bbl for 2011-H1 2014

4. Oil consumption peaked in OECD, growth relied on EMs

5. Oil supply (mostly non-OPEC) responded to higher price

6. U.S. shale output increased 1-2% per month 2012-2014

7. U.S. output up from 5mb/d (2008) to 9.7mb/d (Apr 2015)

8. Decade of high and rising oil prices 2004-2014
Real price of crude ≥ $100 for 3.5 years 2011-2014
Oil supply accelerating
Oil demand decelerating
Emerging imbalance
Lower prices required to realign supply and demand

9. “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop” ––
Stein’s Law
Herbert Stein, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
(1972-74)
What I Think: Essays on Economics, Politics and Life (1998)

10. Adjusting oil supply involves three groups of producers
OPEC
Core Gulf
Iran (Iraq?)
African/Latin American members
U.S. shale
Core plays and counties
Marginal plays and counties
Non-OPEC non-shale (NONS)
North Sea
Deepwater
Arctic
Megaprojects
Frontier
Non-OPEC supply now falling at fastest rate for >20 years

11. OECD oil consumption returns to growth led by United States
Non-OECD sees growth in some large EMs (China, India, Mexico)
Offsetting slowdown in oil demand from oil and commodity
exporting countries (Brazil, Gulf monarchies)
Oil consumption growing > 1.5mb/d each year 2015-2018

12. Cheap gasoline has unleashed driving boom in the U.S.

13. India is also experiencing a boom in gasoline demand

14. India gasoline consumption growing at 10% per year

15. Mexico also seeing fast growth in gasoline consumption

16. Brazil’s fuel consumption is falling with recession

17. Low oil prices discouraging investment in exploration and production
Non-OPEC oil supply falling at fastest rate for more than 20 years
Oil consumption increasing at around 1.5mb/d per year 2015-2017
Emerging imbalance
Supply disruptions (Canada, Nigeria, Iraq, Venezuela) accelerating
adjustment
Higher prices required to realign supply and demand

18. Production outages >3.5 mb/d accelerate adjustment

19. “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop” ––
Stein’s Law
Herbert Stein, Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
(1972-74)
What I Think: Essays on Economics, Politics and Life (1998)

20. Hedge funds amass near-record bullish position on oil

21. Forward oil prices anticipate tighter market in 2017/18

22. Oil prices expected to recover gradually to $70 by 2020