This document outlines 3 scenarios for how cell-based meat could enter the mainstream market as its cost decreases over time: Scenario 1 ("Before PP"): Initial cell-based meat products like nuggets fail to meet expectations and the market share remains low at 0.1% until the late 2030s when costs decrease to price parity (PP). Scenario 2 ("Vertical integration"): As PP is reached earlier for beef than chicken, 2-3 large cell-ag companies dominate each country's production through economies of scale, operating "cell culture foundries." Scenario 3 ("Horizontal specialization"): Equipment and ingredients become commodities, allowing millions to culture meat including in developing countries through open source methods, decreasing barriers

1. The roadmap to the cell-ag era 2020.01

2. Scenarios of cell-ag entering mainstream
Time
Cost-benefit
(Customer satisfaction
divided by the price)
conventional
meatPrice Parity(PP)
PPNow
Vertical
integration
Horizontal
specialization
Scenario 1
“Before PP”
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
cell-based meat
Will the cost-benefit (incl. taste, texture, and cost) of cell-based meat ever exceed
conventional meat? What would the business model surrounding cell-based meat be
like if price parity (PP) is exceeded? Scenario 1: Before PP
Scenario 2: Vertical integration
Scenario 3: Horizontal specialization

3. Scenario1：Before PP
・The cell-based meat hype may
peak 2021〜2022
・Initial products would be limited to
nuggets, foie gras etc., and generally
fail (overblown) expectations.
・Would get through the worst in
2030s, but the share would be 0.1%
・But the PP will eventually be met as
technologies advance.
・Companies need strategies to go
over the trough of disillusionment
“Hype cycle”
https://en.wikipedia.
org/wiki/Hype_cycle
PP Met
https://www.digitalfoodlab.com/top-foodtech-trends-2019-dfinsights/

4. When the PP nears in (late 2020’s)
Animal welfare organizations would serve as the “canary”
- Seeing more posts like “Let’s everybody eat XXX (specific cell-based
product brands)” on socials networks, is the sign of PP closing in.
Meat industry lobbying is already resisting
- The main arena would be in marketing, categorization, and food
safety and labeling regulations.
- Bold forward moves will be found in regions with little meat industry
lobbies like Singapore.
Pro and anti lobbies fight
across “The Chasm” by
sending messages that
target “Early Adopters”.

5. PP Reached = Disruption
Renewable energy：
What used to be “naive nonsense by
environmentalists” in the 80’s - now the top
national prioritiesGlobal protein market capitalization: $2T
Photography：
Fujifilm and Kodak
・The cost-benefit of cell-based meat will
gradually increase to the PP.
・PP is reached earlier in beef than chicken
and in Japan than in the US.
・A disruption occurs when the PP is met.
Surrounding industries like processing,
packaging etc. will also be affected.
・Unexpected entrants to the market, i.e.
Nvidia (computer parts) entering
automotive industry with autonomous
vehicles.

6. Disruption sequence and entry barrier from the start
Foie gras
$55/kg
Tuna
$28/kg
Seashells
$23/kg
Crab (edible part)
$40/kg
Pork, chicken
$2/kg
Beef
$4/kg
Japan
$22/kg
Price parity reached by unit prices, “disruption” occurs accordingly
(As all products would be based on the same technology, entry from the middle i.e. tuna may prove difficult.)
Hong Kong
$17/kg
Singapore
$12/kg
Germany
$11/kg
USA
$11/kg
Beef consumer prices (2019)

7. Scenario 2: “Vertical integration”
・2 to 3 cell-ag companies per country (like automotive industries)
・Capital intensive industry with big advantage in economy of scale
・Foxconn-style “cell culture foundries” may break vertical integration
↑Transport of amino acids to
cell-ag plant with big tankers
←Littoral petrochemical plants are
replaced by cell-ag plants

8. ・Equipments and ingredients are commodities, like restaurant industry
・Millions including in China, India and Africa culture meat
・Open source cultured meat, Nonproprietary recipe, DIY cell culture vats
Scenario 3: “Horizontal Specialization”

9. Scenario between 2 and 3（i.e. Beer industry）
Ohwaki Engineering CO.From hp of Sapporo Beer
・Local and private brewery brands alongside big brands
・Big brands leverage on the economies of scale
・Small brands target local and niche markets
・The required capital for market entry generally decreases with advancing
technology (i.e. AI & automotive), and the scene eventually shift to Scenario 3?
PicoBrew : Beer brewing machine for home-use
Mass brand companies Local brewery Home brewery

10. ・The size of capital for
market entry at the point of
price parity decides which
scenario to occur.
・Actions of animal welfare
organizations and regions
like Singapore would hint the
nearing price parity.
・Other cell-ag (fur, timber,
seafood etc.) products may
follow the same path.
Size of capital for market entry
time
PP not
reached
Vertical
integration
Horizontal
specialization
Cell culture &
cooking not
distinguished
Democratization
Reach PP in
scenario 2
Reach PP in
scenario 3
Likely scenario
from 2030s
How would cell-ag enter mainstream?