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The World Economy: Global boom cooling, but no freeze ’ A Presentation for ICAS Business Breakfast in Aberdeen’ Nick Parsons Head of Research UK and Europe, Global Head FX Research National Australia Bank, [email_address] November 24 th  2011
The world economy
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],World Source: IMF, National Australia Bank Research 2010 Global economic league table (GDP USD millions) 1 United States 16,106,896 11 India 1,430,020 2 China 5,745,133 12 Spain 1,374,779 3 Japan 5,390,897 13 Australia 1,219,722 4 Germany 3,305,898 14 Mexico 1,004,042 5 France 2,555,439 15 South Korea 986,256 6 United Kingdom 2,258,565 16 Netherlands 770,312 7 Italy 2,036,687 17 Turkey 729,051 8 Brazil 2,023,528 18 Indonesia 695,059 9 Canada 1,563,664 19 Switzerland 522,435 10 Russia 1,476,912 20 Belgium 461,331
Advanced economies are no longer driving global GDP growth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],World Source: IMF WEO, National Australia Bank Research
Asia/EM still driving, but now with headwinds ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],World Source: IMF WEO, National Australia Bank Research 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Industrial Production (Jan 2007 =100) Asia Emerging  markets Advanced economies World
World economy has grown for two years, although some slowdown is now seen ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],World Source:  National Australia Bank Research Annual Average 2008 2009 2010 2011 (f) 2012 (f) US 0.4 -3.5 3.0 1.8 2.4 Japan -1.2 -6.3 4.0 -0.6 3.3 UK 0.8 -4.9 1.3 1.0 1.6 Eurozone 0.5 -4.1 1.7 1.7 0.4 Canada 0.4 -2.7 3.2 2.8 2.2 Australia 3.1 1.3 2.7 2.0 4.2 New Zealand 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 3.6 China 9.5 9.2 10.3 9.2 8.2 India 7.5 7.0 9.0 7.5 6.9 Latin America 4.1 -2.0 6.5 4.8 3.8 World 3.0 -1.1 4.6 3.8 3.7 2013 (f) 3.1 1.9 2.1 1.1 2.8 3.1 3.1 8.0 6.0 3.0 3.6
The changing global economy
World 1  United States  1 2  China  7 3  Japan 2 4  Germany  3 5  France  5  6  United Kingdom  4 7  Italy  6 8  Brazil  10  9  Canada  8  10 Russia 21  11  India 12 12  Spain 9  13  Australia  14  14  Mexico  11  15  South Korea  13  16  Netherlands  15  17  Turkey 22  18  Indonesia  27  19  Switzerland  18  20  Belgium  20  2010  2000 2010  2000 Global economic league table changes over the past decade ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source:  National Australia Bank Research
World Change in share of global GDP over past decade  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source:  National Australia Bank Research - 6.0 - 4.0 - 2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 Japan United States Germany United Kingdom France Italy Belgium Netherlands Switzerland Mexico South Korea Canada Spain Turkey Australia Indonesia India Brazil Russia China
World Change in share of global GDP over the past decade  ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source:  National Australia Bank Research Germany Japan France United States 2010 UK China Japan Germany UK China France 2000 United States
World China has consistently outstripped other countries in economic growth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source:  National Australia Bank Research 9.6% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% Japan Italy Germany Switzerland France Netherlands USA UK New Zealand Canada Brazil Indonesia Thailand Australia Spain Hong Kong Taiwan South Korea Phillipines Malaysia Singapore UAE India Vietnam China Real GDP Growth 2000-2010 (average annual % change)
World While the rest of the world crashed in 2008/09, China fared well ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: OECD - 5 0 5 10 15 20 1980 1987 1994 2001 2008 Annual percentage change China Advanced  economies World
World BRICs will soon contribute over half the growth in global GDP ,[object Object],[object Object],Source:  National Australia Bank Research 32.2% 61.3% 19.8% 46.3% 41.1% 12.8% BRIC G7 1990 - 2000 2000 - 2008 2008 - 2014
T rends in global population
World Distribution of world population ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source:  National Australia Bank Research 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 China India United States Indonesia Brazil Pakistan Bangladesh Nigeria Russia Japan Mexico Philippines Vietnam Germany Ethiopia Egypt millions
World GDP per capita  ,[object Object],[object Object],Source:  IMF, National Australia Bank 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK US China USD 1980  1986  1992  1998  2004  2012
World 1  United States  8 2  Japan  9 3  China  101 4  Germany  26 5  France  28  6  United Kingdom  24 7  Italy  32 8  Brazil  81  9  Spain  27 10  Canada  19  11  Russia  56  12  India  134 13  Australia  17  14  Mexico  64  15  South Korea  37  16  Netherlands  16  17  Turkey 78  18  Indonesia  127 19  Switzerland  13  20  Belgium  21  2009 GDP  per capita 2009 GDP  per capita Global economic league table and per capita position  ,[object Object],[object Object],Source:  IMF, National Australia Bank
Conclusions
G7/10 growth will be the most subdued around the world ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Conclusions Source:  National Australia Bank Research Annual Average 2008 2009 2010 2011 (f) 2012 (f) US 0.4 -3.5 3.0 1.8 2.4 Japan -1.2 -6.3 4.0 -0.6 3.3 UK 0.8 -4.9 1.3 1.0 1.6 Eurozone 0.5 -4.1 1.7 1.7 0.4 Canada 0.4 -2.7 3.2 2.8 2.2 Australia 3.1 1.3 2.7 2.0 4.2 New Zealand 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 3.6 China 9.5 9.2 10.3 9.2 8.2 India 7.5 7.0 9.0 7.5 6.9 Latin America 4.1 -2.0 6.5 4.8 3.8 World 3.0 -1.1 4.6 3.8 3.7 2013 (f) 3.1 1.9 2.1 1.1 2.8 3.1 3.1 8.0 6.0 3.0 3.6
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Disclaimer IMPORTANT NOTICE:  So far as the law and the Financial Services Authority Rules allow, National Australia Bank Ltd ("the Bank") disclaims any warranty or representation as to the accuracy or reliability of the information and statements in this Document.  The Bank will not be liable (whether in negligence or otherwise) for any loss or damage suffered from relying on this Document.  This Document does not purport to contain all relevant information.  Recipients should not rely on its contents but should make their own assessment and seek professional advice relevant to their circumstances.  The Bank may have proprietary positions in the products described in this Document.  This Document is for information purposes only, is not intended as an offer or solicitation, nor is it the intention of the Bank to create legal relations on the basis of the information contained in it.  No part of this Document may be reproduced without the prior permission of the Bank. This Document is intended for Investment Professionals (as such term is defined in The Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001) and should not be passed to any other person who would be defined as a private customer by the rules of the Financial Services Authority ("FSA") in the UK, or to any person who may not have experience of such matters.  Issued by National Australia Bank Limited A.B.N. 12 004 044 937, 88 Wood Street, London EC2V 7QQ. Registered in England BR1924. Head Office: 500 Bourke Street, Melbourne, Victoria. Incorporated with limited liability in the State of Victoria, Australia. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the UK.

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Atholl Duncan Presentation

  • 1. The World Economy: Global boom cooling, but no freeze ’ A Presentation for ICAS Business Breakfast in Aberdeen’ Nick Parsons Head of Research UK and Europe, Global Head FX Research National Australia Bank, [email_address] November 24 th 2011
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  • 21. Disclaimer IMPORTANT NOTICE: So far as the law and the Financial Services Authority Rules allow, National Australia Bank Ltd ("the Bank") disclaims any warranty or representation as to the accuracy or reliability of the information and statements in this Document. The Bank will not be liable (whether in negligence or otherwise) for any loss or damage suffered from relying on this Document. This Document does not purport to contain all relevant information. Recipients should not rely on its contents but should make their own assessment and seek professional advice relevant to their circumstances. The Bank may have proprietary positions in the products described in this Document. This Document is for information purposes only, is not intended as an offer or solicitation, nor is it the intention of the Bank to create legal relations on the basis of the information contained in it. No part of this Document may be reproduced without the prior permission of the Bank. This Document is intended for Investment Professionals (as such term is defined in The Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001) and should not be passed to any other person who would be defined as a private customer by the rules of the Financial Services Authority ("FSA") in the UK, or to any person who may not have experience of such matters. Issued by National Australia Bank Limited A.B.N. 12 004 044 937, 88 Wood Street, London EC2V 7QQ. Registered in England BR1924. Head Office: 500 Bourke Street, Melbourne, Victoria. Incorporated with limited liability in the State of Victoria, Australia. Authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the UK.