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State of the Global Reinsurance
Market
May 17, 2016
Panelists:
Bob DeRose – Vice President
Steve Chirico – Assistant Vice President
Greg Reisner – Assistant Vice President
Susan Molineux – Senior Financial Analyst
Moderator:
John Andre – Group Vice
President
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda
Disclaimer
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 2
© AM Best Company (AMB) and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS
PROTECTED BY COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE
REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR
RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR
MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT AMB’s PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. All
information contained herein is obtained by AMB from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility
of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided “AS IS” without
warranty of any kind. Under no circumstances shall AMB have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in
whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error (negligent or otherwise) or other circumstance or contingency
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AMB is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages, resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information.
The credit ratings, financial reporting analysis, projections, and other observations, if any, constituting part of the information
contained herein are, and must be construed solely as, statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to
purchase, sell or hold any securities, insurance policies, contracts or any other financial obligations, nor does it address the
suitability of any particular financial obligation for a specific purpose or purchaser. Credit risk is the risk that an entity may not meet
its contractual, financial obligations as they come due. Credit ratings do not address any other risk, including but not limited to,
liquidity risk, market value risk or price volatility of rated securities. NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE
ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY
SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY AMB IN ANY FORM OR MANNER
WHATSOEVER. Each credit rating or other opinion must be weighed solely as one factor in any investment or purchasing decision
made by or on behalf of any user of the information contained herein, and each such user must accordingly make its own study
and evaluation of each security or other financial obligation and of each issuer and guarantor of, and each provider of credit
support for, each security or other financial obligation that it may consider purchasing, holding or selling.
May 17, 2016
Discussion Outline
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 3
Global Reinsurance Results and Trends
Impact of Alternative Capital
The Merger and Acquisition Phase
May 17, 2016
Global Reinsurance
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 4
Global Reinsurance Results
and
Trends
May 17, 2016
Market Reinsurers Have…
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 5
Negative
Outlook
Increased
client
retentions
Excess
capacity
Capital
convergence
Benign cat
losses
Questionable
underwriting
discipline
Declining
reserve
redundancies
Low
investment
yields
May 17, 2016
Combined Ratios by Sector
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 6May 17, 2016
Note: “Big Four” refers to the Big Four European
Reinsurers
99% 95% 93%
107% 108% 107%
91% 91% 93% 91% 87% 87%
92% 88% 87% 92% 90% 89%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Big
Four
Lloyd's US
&
BDA
Big
Four
Lloyd's US
&
BDA
Big
Four
Lloyd's US
&
BDA
Big
Four
Lloyd's US
&
BDA
Big
Four
Lloyd's US
&
BDA
Big
Four
Lloyd's US
&
BDA
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Loss Ratio Expense Ratio
Return on Equity by Sector
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 7May 17, 2016
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
European "Big Four" US & Bermuda Market Lloyd's Five Year Average
Reinsurance Capacity Utilization
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 8May 17, 2016
Source: A.M. Best research and data
Capacity Utilization Based on Aggregate Risk-Adjusted
Capitalization of Rated Balance Sheets
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 2013 2014 2015E
Capital Management
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 9May 17, 2016
194 194
218 215
235 232
10 14
20 25
33 38
- 2
4 6
14 21
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Shareholders'Equity(USDBillions)
Global Reinsurance
Shareholders' Equity plus Share Repurchases & Dividends
Shareholders' Equity (End of Period) Share Repurchases Common and Preferred Dividends
Global Reinsurance
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 10
Impact
of
Alternative Capital
May 17, 2016
Alternative Capital
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 11
Market still heavily
influenced
by
global leaders –
that won’t change anytime
soon
Cultural issues
no longer
limiting M&A –
it is happening
Alternative capacity
is driving change
Alternative capital is
driving a great deal of
structural change in the
market
However, do not lose
sight of the fact that the
market continues to be
heavily influenced by the
global reinsurance leaders
May 17, 2016
Top 50 Global Reinsurers
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 12
The Top 10 global reinsurance companies continue
to strongly influence the landscape
Reinsurance
Premiums Written
2015 Life & Non-Life (USD m)
Ranking Company Name Gross Net
1 Munich Reinsurance Co. 39,035 37,761
2 Swiss Reinsurance Co. Ltd. 33,276 31,640
3 Hannover Rueckversicherung AG 17,457 15,100
4 Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 14,919 14,919
5 SCOR S.E. 13,756 12,324
6 Lloyd’s 13,199 10,416
7 Reinsurance Group of America Inc. 9,118 N/A
8 China Reinsurance (Group) Corp. 8,506 7,991
9 PartnerRe Ltd. 5,932 5,720
10 Everest Re Group Ltd. 5,749 5,257
Life and Non-Life GPW Distribution by
Ranking
May 17, 2016
Source: A.M. Best data and research
Rank 1-10
72%
Rank 11-20,
13%
Rank 21-30
7%
Rank 31-40
5%
Rank 41-50
3%
Dedicated Reinsurance Capacity
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 13May 17, 2016
Total Dedicated Reinsurance Capacity (USD billions)
Note: * Estimate by Guy Carpenter and A.M. Best
Source: A.M. Best, Guy Carpenter
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2012 2013 2014 2015E*
Estimate for Total Dedicated Reinsurance Capacity
Traditional Capacity Convergence Capacity
CAT Bond Issuances
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 14May 17, 2016
Source: A.M. Best Research and Artemis
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CatastropheBonds(MillionsofUSD)
Year
Property and Casualty Industry
Convergence Products
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 15
Basis Risk – The risk that a convergence instrument may not fully trigger when
the sponsor suffers a loss
Tail Risk – The risk borne by a sponsor if an entity to which it cedes business
is insufficiently capitalised
Credit, Default and Recovery Risk – Transactions that
involve payment obligations from third parties
Investment Performance Risk – For transactions that rely on
investment earnings and return on investments
Structuring Risk – Transactions involving securitizations where cash
flows are an essential source of investor repayment
Modelling Risk – Transaction where modelling performed by third-party
consulting firms
Risks associated
with convergence
products
May 17, 2016
Global Reinsurance
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 16
Alternative Capital
“Hedge Fund Re”
May 17, 2016
Alternative Capital
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 17
Asset Manager View
• Permanent capital to earn
fee income
• Tax deferred returns
• Cost free“float” if done
correctly
• Provide another product for
potential investors
Reinsurer View
• Can toggle between asset
and liability risk providing
more cycle management
opportunity
• Float can generate more
income than plain vanilla
portfolio
May 17, 2016
Hedge Fund Reinsurance Model
Alternative Capital
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 18
Build
• Long-term capital
• Recruit leadership talent
• Build infrastructure
• Develop relationships
• Obtain acceptable rating
• Gain market acceptance
Partnership
• Long-term capital
• Draw from existing talent
• Established infrastructure
• Benefit from existing relationships
• Reduce ramp-up risk
• Alignment of interest
• Obtain acceptable rating
• Gain market acceptance
May 17, 2016
Hedge Fund Reinsurance Model Continues to Gain Interest
Alternative Capital
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 19
Hedge fund reinsurers
Greenlight
Re
Build
FSR “A”
Third
Point
Re
Build
FSR “A-”
Hamilton
Re
Build
FSR “A-”
PAC Re
Partner
Rating
Withdrawn
Watford
Re
Partner
FSR “A-”
Fidelis
Build
FSR “A-”
May 17, 2016
Global Reinsurance
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 20May 17, 2016
The Merger
and
Acquisition Phase
The Drive for Efficiency
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 21
The market will continue to
become more efficient as all
players strive to become closer to
the client
May 17, 2016
The Base Case for M&A
May 17, 2016A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 22
Broader product
capability
Broader geographic
reach
Greater influence
with brokers and
cedants
Greater
attractiveness to
third-party capital
M&A
Most M&A deals
in the current
reinsurance
market are
focused on one,
if not all, of
these four
categories
Reinsurers Price-to-Book Value
excluding AOCI as of 2015
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 23
The increase in
valuations helps
when buying from a
“currency”
perspective
Alternatively,
companies typically
don’t want to sell
themselves below
book value
May 17, 2016
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
Price/BookValue
Years
Average
Current P/BV: 1.10x
Average 1993-Present: 1.16x
Low Reached March 2009 (0.75x BV)
Peak reached February 2002 (1.83x BV)
1.0x P/BV
Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, A.M. Best data and research
Appendix
May 17, 2016A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 24
Current Market Conditions
It’s a “buyer’s market”
Primary
companies
strategically
buying
Increased use
of alternative
capacity
Terms and
conditions
broadened
Rate on line
under
pressure –
especially
loss-free
business
Industry
consolidation
is creating a
ripple effect
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 25May 17, 2016
Catastrophe Rates
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 26May 17, 2016
Navigating the Market
May 17, 2016A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 27
Sources: GC Analysis, SNL,
Bloomberg
Alternative Capital
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 28
Capital
Market /
Reinsurers
Convergence
Relatively
attractive
returns
Uncorrelated
asset class
Limited
investment
alternatives
Better
understanding
of risk
Losses have
been limited
thus far
Tax
advantage
return
Permanent
source of
capital
Cost-free
float
Hedge
Fund
Model
May 17, 2016
State of the Global Reinsurance
Market
May 17, 2016
Panelists:
Bob DeRose – Vice President
Steve Chirico – Assistant Vice President
Greg Reisner – Assistant Vice President
Susan Molineux – Senior Financial Analyst
Moderator:
John Andre – Group Vice
President
A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda

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State of the Global Reinsurance Market

  • 1. State of the Global Reinsurance Market May 17, 2016 Panelists: Bob DeRose – Vice President Steve Chirico – Assistant Vice President Greg Reisner – Assistant Vice President Susan Molineux – Senior Financial Analyst Moderator: John Andre – Group Vice President A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda
  • 2. Disclaimer A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 2 © AM Best Company (AMB) and/or its licensors and affiliates. All rights reserved. ALL INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROTECTED BY COPYRIGHT LAW AND NONE OF SUCH INFORMATION MAY BE COPIED OR OTHERWISE REPRODUCED, REPACKAGED, FURTHER TRANSMITTED, TRANSFERRED, DISSEMINATED, REDISTRIBUTED OR RESOLD, OR STORED FOR SUBSEQUENT USE FOR ANY SUCH PURPOSE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, IN ANY FORM OR MANNER OR BY ANY MEANS WHATSOEVER, BY ANY PERSON WITHOUT AMB’s PRIOR WRITTEN CONSENT. All information contained herein is obtained by AMB from sources believed by it to be accurate and reliable. Because of the possibility of human or mechanical error as well as other factors, however, all information contained herein is provided “AS IS” without warranty of any kind. Under no circumstances shall AMB have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error (negligent or otherwise) or other circumstance or contingency within or outside the control of AMB or any of its directors, officers, employees or agents in connection with the procurement, collection, compilation, analysis, interpretation, communication, publication or delivery of any such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, special, consequential, compensatory or incidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits), even if AMB is advised in advance of the possibility of such damages, resulting from the use of or inability to use, any such information. The credit ratings, financial reporting analysis, projections, and other observations, if any, constituting part of the information contained herein are, and must be construed solely as, statements of opinion and not statements of fact or recommendations to purchase, sell or hold any securities, insurance policies, contracts or any other financial obligations, nor does it address the suitability of any particular financial obligation for a specific purpose or purchaser. Credit risk is the risk that an entity may not meet its contractual, financial obligations as they come due. Credit ratings do not address any other risk, including but not limited to, liquidity risk, market value risk or price volatility of rated securities. NO WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, AS TO THE ACCURACY, TIMELINESS, COMPLETENESS, MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PARTICULAR PURPOSE OF ANY SUCH RATING OR OTHER OPINION OR INFORMATION IS GIVEN OR MADE BY AMB IN ANY FORM OR MANNER WHATSOEVER. Each credit rating or other opinion must be weighed solely as one factor in any investment or purchasing decision made by or on behalf of any user of the information contained herein, and each such user must accordingly make its own study and evaluation of each security or other financial obligation and of each issuer and guarantor of, and each provider of credit support for, each security or other financial obligation that it may consider purchasing, holding or selling. May 17, 2016
  • 3. Discussion Outline A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 3 Global Reinsurance Results and Trends Impact of Alternative Capital The Merger and Acquisition Phase May 17, 2016
  • 4. Global Reinsurance A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 4 Global Reinsurance Results and Trends May 17, 2016
  • 5. Market Reinsurers Have… A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 5 Negative Outlook Increased client retentions Excess capacity Capital convergence Benign cat losses Questionable underwriting discipline Declining reserve redundancies Low investment yields May 17, 2016
  • 6. Combined Ratios by Sector A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 6May 17, 2016 Note: “Big Four” refers to the Big Four European Reinsurers 99% 95% 93% 107% 108% 107% 91% 91% 93% 91% 87% 87% 92% 88% 87% 92% 90% 89% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% Big Four Lloyd's US & BDA Big Four Lloyd's US & BDA Big Four Lloyd's US & BDA Big Four Lloyd's US & BDA Big Four Lloyd's US & BDA Big Four Lloyd's US & BDA 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Loss Ratio Expense Ratio
  • 7. Return on Equity by Sector A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 7May 17, 2016 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 European "Big Four" US & Bermuda Market Lloyd's Five Year Average
  • 8. Reinsurance Capacity Utilization A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 8May 17, 2016 Source: A.M. Best research and data Capacity Utilization Based on Aggregate Risk-Adjusted Capitalization of Rated Balance Sheets 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2012 2013 2014 2015E
  • 9. Capital Management A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 9May 17, 2016 194 194 218 215 235 232 10 14 20 25 33 38 - 2 4 6 14 21 - 50 100 150 200 250 300 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Shareholders'Equity(USDBillions) Global Reinsurance Shareholders' Equity plus Share Repurchases & Dividends Shareholders' Equity (End of Period) Share Repurchases Common and Preferred Dividends
  • 10. Global Reinsurance A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 10 Impact of Alternative Capital May 17, 2016
  • 11. Alternative Capital A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 11 Market still heavily influenced by global leaders – that won’t change anytime soon Cultural issues no longer limiting M&A – it is happening Alternative capacity is driving change Alternative capital is driving a great deal of structural change in the market However, do not lose sight of the fact that the market continues to be heavily influenced by the global reinsurance leaders May 17, 2016
  • 12. Top 50 Global Reinsurers A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 12 The Top 10 global reinsurance companies continue to strongly influence the landscape Reinsurance Premiums Written 2015 Life & Non-Life (USD m) Ranking Company Name Gross Net 1 Munich Reinsurance Co. 39,035 37,761 2 Swiss Reinsurance Co. Ltd. 33,276 31,640 3 Hannover Rueckversicherung AG 17,457 15,100 4 Berkshire Hathaway Inc. 14,919 14,919 5 SCOR S.E. 13,756 12,324 6 Lloyd’s 13,199 10,416 7 Reinsurance Group of America Inc. 9,118 N/A 8 China Reinsurance (Group) Corp. 8,506 7,991 9 PartnerRe Ltd. 5,932 5,720 10 Everest Re Group Ltd. 5,749 5,257 Life and Non-Life GPW Distribution by Ranking May 17, 2016 Source: A.M. Best data and research Rank 1-10 72% Rank 11-20, 13% Rank 21-30 7% Rank 31-40 5% Rank 41-50 3%
  • 13. Dedicated Reinsurance Capacity A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 13May 17, 2016 Total Dedicated Reinsurance Capacity (USD billions) Note: * Estimate by Guy Carpenter and A.M. Best Source: A.M. Best, Guy Carpenter - 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2012 2013 2014 2015E* Estimate for Total Dedicated Reinsurance Capacity Traditional Capacity Convergence Capacity
  • 14. CAT Bond Issuances A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 14May 17, 2016 Source: A.M. Best Research and Artemis 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CatastropheBonds(MillionsofUSD) Year Property and Casualty Industry
  • 15. Convergence Products A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 15 Basis Risk – The risk that a convergence instrument may not fully trigger when the sponsor suffers a loss Tail Risk – The risk borne by a sponsor if an entity to which it cedes business is insufficiently capitalised Credit, Default and Recovery Risk – Transactions that involve payment obligations from third parties Investment Performance Risk – For transactions that rely on investment earnings and return on investments Structuring Risk – Transactions involving securitizations where cash flows are an essential source of investor repayment Modelling Risk – Transaction where modelling performed by third-party consulting firms Risks associated with convergence products May 17, 2016
  • 16. Global Reinsurance A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 16 Alternative Capital “Hedge Fund Re” May 17, 2016
  • 17. Alternative Capital A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 17 Asset Manager View • Permanent capital to earn fee income • Tax deferred returns • Cost free“float” if done correctly • Provide another product for potential investors Reinsurer View • Can toggle between asset and liability risk providing more cycle management opportunity • Float can generate more income than plain vanilla portfolio May 17, 2016 Hedge Fund Reinsurance Model
  • 18. Alternative Capital A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 18 Build • Long-term capital • Recruit leadership talent • Build infrastructure • Develop relationships • Obtain acceptable rating • Gain market acceptance Partnership • Long-term capital • Draw from existing talent • Established infrastructure • Benefit from existing relationships • Reduce ramp-up risk • Alignment of interest • Obtain acceptable rating • Gain market acceptance May 17, 2016 Hedge Fund Reinsurance Model Continues to Gain Interest
  • 19. Alternative Capital A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 19 Hedge fund reinsurers Greenlight Re Build FSR “A” Third Point Re Build FSR “A-” Hamilton Re Build FSR “A-” PAC Re Partner Rating Withdrawn Watford Re Partner FSR “A-” Fidelis Build FSR “A-” May 17, 2016
  • 20. Global Reinsurance A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 20May 17, 2016 The Merger and Acquisition Phase
  • 21. The Drive for Efficiency A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 21 The market will continue to become more efficient as all players strive to become closer to the client May 17, 2016
  • 22. The Base Case for M&A May 17, 2016A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 22 Broader product capability Broader geographic reach Greater influence with brokers and cedants Greater attractiveness to third-party capital M&A Most M&A deals in the current reinsurance market are focused on one, if not all, of these four categories
  • 23. Reinsurers Price-to-Book Value excluding AOCI as of 2015 A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 23 The increase in valuations helps when buying from a “currency” perspective Alternatively, companies typically don’t want to sell themselves below book value May 17, 2016 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Price/BookValue Years Average Current P/BV: 1.10x Average 1993-Present: 1.16x Low Reached March 2009 (0.75x BV) Peak reached February 2002 (1.83x BV) 1.0x P/BV Source: Company reports, Bloomberg, A.M. Best data and research
  • 24. Appendix May 17, 2016A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 24
  • 25. Current Market Conditions It’s a “buyer’s market” Primary companies strategically buying Increased use of alternative capacity Terms and conditions broadened Rate on line under pressure – especially loss-free business Industry consolidation is creating a ripple effect A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 25May 17, 2016
  • 26. Catastrophe Rates A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 26May 17, 2016
  • 27. Navigating the Market May 17, 2016A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 27 Sources: GC Analysis, SNL, Bloomberg
  • 28. Alternative Capital A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda 28 Capital Market / Reinsurers Convergence Relatively attractive returns Uncorrelated asset class Limited investment alternatives Better understanding of risk Losses have been limited thus far Tax advantage return Permanent source of capital Cost-free float Hedge Fund Model May 17, 2016
  • 29. State of the Global Reinsurance Market May 17, 2016 Panelists: Bob DeRose – Vice President Steve Chirico – Assistant Vice President Greg Reisner – Assistant Vice President Susan Molineux – Senior Financial Analyst Moderator: John Andre – Group Vice President A.M. Best Briefing - Bermuda