Employment Trends of the Young (Age 25-34) in Metro Atlanta

Characteristics of the Young (Age 25-34) in
the Workforce
Atlanta Regional Commission
Regional Snapshot: July 2013
For more information contact:
mcarnathan@atlantaregional.com

National Unemployment Rates By Age
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
1980-Q01
1981-Q01
1982-Q01
1983-Q01
1984-Q01
1985-Q01
1986-Q01
1987-Q01
1988-Q01
1989-Q01
1990-Q01
1991-Q01
1992-Q01
1993-Q01
1994-Q01
1995-Q01
1996-Q01
1997-Q01
1998-Q01
1999-Q01
2000-Q01
2001-Q01
2002-Q01
2003-Q01
2004-Q01
2005-Q01
2006-Q01
2007-Q01
2008-Q01
2009-Q01
2010-Q01
2011-Q01
2012-Q01
2013-Q01
25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64
Unemployment
Unemployment rates for
the young – here
meaning those age 25 to
34 – have always been
higher than those for
older age cohorts.
Although unemployment
rates for the 25-34 group
reached double-digits
during the Great
Recession, rates were
never as high as they
were during the
recession of early 1980s,
when many of the later
boomers were hitting
the job market for the
first time.

Unemployment “Gap” for 25-34 Age
Group
Unemployment Gap
One way to determine whether the
25-34 age group is faring
significantly worse than older
cohorts is to calculate the difference
between unemployment rates. This
chart displays the difference, or
“gap”, between unemployment
rates for the 25-34 age group and
the rate for those ages 35-64. The
higher the value, the larger the gap.
The gap rose dramatically during the
Great Recession, with youth (25-34)
unemployment rates almost three
percentage points higher than other
ages groups. Still, these gaps was
significantly larger during the early
1980s recession, when many baby
boomers were first hitting the job
market.
The good news is that during the
last few quarters, the gap is as low
as it has been since 2008.
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
1980-Q01
1981-Q01
1982-Q01
1983-Q01
1984-Q01
1985-Q01
1986-Q01
1987-Q01
1988-Q01
1989-Q01
1990-Q01
1991-Q01
1992-Q01
1993-Q01
1994-Q01
1995-Q01
1996-Q01
1997-Q01
1998-Q01
1999-Q01
2000-Q01
2001-Q01
2002-Q01
2003-Q01
2004-Q01
2005-Q01
2006-Q01
2007-Q01
2008-Q01
2009-Q01
2010-Q01
2011-Q01
2012-Q01
2013-Q01

Labor Force Participation Rate
(National, all ages)
Labor Force Participation Rates
One puzzling trend over the past
decade or so is the rapidly declining
labor force participation rate (LFPR).
The simple definition of LFPR is anyone
between the ages of 16 and 65 who is
working or wants to work is considered
in the labor force.
Of course, during the two recession we
experienced during the 2000s, a lower
LFPR is to be expected. But even as the
economy has strengthened over the
past couple of years, the LFPR is still
mostly lower. Other than the wave of
boomers now ready to retire, and the
growing number of long-term
employed who are no longer looking
for work, there aren’t good
explanations for this trend.
A recent paper by the San Francisco
FED explores some potential causes.
Read it here.
Link to study above:
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/let
ter/2013/el2013-14.html
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
Jan_1970
Apr_1971
Jul_1972
Oct_1973
Jan_1975
Apr_1976
Jul_1977
Oct_1978
Jan_1980
Apr_1981
Jul_1982
Oct_1983
Jan_1985
Apr_1986
Jul_1987
Oct_1988
Jan_1990
Apr_1991
Jul_1992
Oct_1993
Jan_1995
Apr_1996
Jul_1997
Oct_1998
Jan_2000
Apr_2001
Jul_2002
Oct_2003
Jan_2005
Apr_2006
Jul_2007
Oct_2008
Jan_2010
Apr_2011
Jul_2012

(National, by age cohort)
Labor Force Participation Rates
Between 1970 and mid-1990s,
labor force participation rates (LFPR)
rose steadily, thanks mostly to more
women entering the workforce.
Those rates have dropped since
2000 for all age groups except those
55 and older. This could be having
an effect on the ability of younger
age cohorts to find work and stay in
the labor force.
While it is true that the older age
cohorts are staying in the workforce
longer, we still can’t explain the true
meaning of this trend. Is it because
those 55 and older are healthier and
staying in the workforce longer
while remaining productive? Or is it
because those 55 and older WANT
to retire, but can’t due to
deteriorating economic conditions?
A recent paper by the San Francisco
FED explores these questions
further. Read it here.
Link to study above:
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/econ
omics/letter/2013/el2013-14.html
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Q01_1970
Q02_1971
Q03_1972
Q04_1973
Q01_1975
Q02_1976
Q03_1977
Q04_1978
Q01_1980
Q02_1981
Q03_1982
Q04_1983
Q01_1985
Q02_1986
Q03_1987
Q04_1988
Q01_1990
Q02_1991
Q03_1992
Q04_1993
Q01_1995
Q02_1996
Q03_1997
Q04_1998
Q01_2000
Q02_2001
Q03_2002
Q04_2003
Q01_2005
Q02_2006
Q03_2007
Q04_2008
Q01_2010
Q02_2011
Q03_2012
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+

Unemployment “Gap” for 25-34 Age
Group
The map shows the labor force participation rate (the percentage of
those 25-34 who are actively seeking employment or already employed)
for the 99 most populous metros in the U.S. Atlanta is in the second
highest grouping (quintiles). This high participation rate (84.2%) is a
good thing because that means people are optimistic about their
prospects of getting job (or already have a job).
Lower participation rates are generally associated with declining
economic opportunities or an imbalance of skills required versus skills
available.
Source: 2011
American Community
Survey
Metro Atlanta

Source: 2011
American Community
Survey
Percent Employed AND in Labor Force
The previous slide showed that metro Atlanta has a relatively high labor force participation rate for
those age 25-34, which is a good thing. This map, however, shows that of those in the labor force, a
relatively small percentage are actually employed (86.8%) in Atlanta. (It is in the lowest grouping, or
quintile).
One potential explanation for this disparity is that these data are from 2011, right when the job
market began its turnaround, thus people were flooding back into the labor force in anticipation of
improving job prospects. Another explanation could be that this age cohort is more likely to be
enrolled in school AND looking for employment (or already employed). Thus they would be counted
as in the labor force, but unemployed. Metro Atlanta has an abundance of higher educational
opportunities.
Metro Atlanta

Percentage Of Total Jobs Held By 25-34
Age Group
Source: Quarterly Workforce Indicators, U.S. Census Bureau
Concentration of 25-34 Ages in
Workforce
This chart looks at EMPLOYMENT
(not unemployment) and
calculates the percentage of total
jobs held by 25-34 year-olds for
Atlanta and other selected
metros.
As the workforce ages and people
stay in the workforce longer, it
stands to reason that the
percentage of the 25-34 age
group would decline, as is shown
in the chart.
Among these selected metros,
Atlanta had the highest
percentage of 25-34 year olds in
the workforce in 2000, but by
2012, metro Atlanta has the
lowest.20.0%
21.0%
22.0%
23.0%
24.0%
25.0%
26.0%
27.0%
28.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Atlanta Dallas Houston Chicago Minneapolis Charlotte

Percentage Of Total Jobs Held By 25-34
Age Group
20.0%
21.0%
22.0%
23.0%
24.0%
25.0%
26.0%
27.0%
28.0%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Atlanta Dallas Houston Chicago Minneapolis Charlotte
Metro Atlanta, 2000
Metro Atlanta, 2012
Concentration of 25-34 Ages in
Workforce
This chart looks at EMPLOYMENT
(not unemployment) and
calculates the percentage of total
jobs held by 25-34 year-olds for
Atlanta and other selected
metros.
As the workforce ages and people
stay in the workforce longer, it
stands to reason that the
percentage of the 25-34 age
group would decline, as is shown
in the chart.
Among these selected metros,
Atlanta had the highest
percentage of 25-34 year olds in
the workforce in 2000, but by
2012, metro Atlanta has the
lowest.

Workforce Composition by Age, Metro
Atlanta
Changing Workforce Composition
The pie charts show how the workforce has changed since 2000.
The largest percentage-point increase was found in the 55 and
older age cohorts. This cohort is the Baby Boom generation, and
Boomers are staying in the workforce longer.
Conversely, the largest percentage point decline was found in the
25-34 age group (27% of the workforce in 2000; 22% in 2012).
It is also worth noting that the younger age cohorts, including
those under 24 and between 35-44, all experienced a net decline
between 2000 and 2012, in addition to declines in their respective
share of the workforce.
310,040
14%
606,170
27%
611,535
28%
448,761
20%
233,025
11%
2000(Q1)
314,087
13%
559,132
24%
627,093
26%
525,398
22%
346,510
15%
2007(Q1)
233,657
11%
490,852
22%
550,118
25%
527,478
24%
391,398
18%
2012(Q1)

Total Employment in Metro Atlanta,
Youth and Older Workers
Total Employment
Over the years, the total
employment of young people
(age 19 to 34) has been
declining, with a nearly 19
percent decline of the
number in the workforce.
There was a dramatic drop
after 2007, and that age
cohort has yet to recover.
Conversely, the employment
of those 55 and older has
been increasing steadily since
the millennium. It has
increased by 63 percent
overall, but also increased
during the Great Recession
(2007-2010)
857,035
810,663 810,515
699,466 706,544 695,715
240,584
337,493 353,870 367,173 384,030 391,398
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
2000 2006 2007 2010 2011 2012
Workers Age 55+

Comparison Of Population &
Employment Growth
Link Between Job and Population?
To be sure, the 25 to 34 age cohort
is not growing as fast as the
population as a whole. Between
2000 and 2010, the 25-34 age
cohort only increased 3.2 percent,
whereas the total population
increased by almost 25 percent
during the same period.
But despite the positive
population (age 25-34) growth
(although slow), this 25-34 year
old workforce cohort experienced
an almost 20 percent decline
between 2000 and 2010.
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
25-34 total employment, Q2 25-34 Metro Atlanta Pop
25-34 Employment vs. 25-34 Population:
Percent Change, 2000 - 2010

Comparison Of Population &
Employment Growth
Link Between Job and Population?
The 35 to 44 age cohort has the
same basic profile as does the 25-
34 year-olds – declining
employment, but increasing
population. In fact, all age groups
experienced higher population
growth than employment growth.
This relationship of population
growth to employment growth is a
product of declining labor force
participation rates across all ages.
-19.60%
-9.87%
13.47%
52.62%
3.19%
7.70%
36.83%
60.87%
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
25-34 35-44 45-54 55 and over
Total Employment vs. Population: Percent
Change, 2000-2010
Total Employment Population

What Sectors Attract the 25-34 Age
Cohort
Youth Employment Concentration Index
This chart looks at which sectors the 25-34
age cohort tends to concentrate in. We take
the total number of this cohort employed in
a sector, then divide it by the total number
employed in this sector. We do the same for
the overall workforce, then develop a ratio
where anything above one indicates a
stronger concentration of 25-34 in these
sectors than the workforce as a whole. For
example, 10.2 percent of workers age 25-34
work in the “Food/Drinking Places”
subsector. Overall, only 8.9 percent of the
all workers work in the above sector. So,
divide 10.5 by 9.2, and the ratio equals
roughly 1.13, meaning that 25-34 year olds
are 15 percent MORE LIKELY to work in the
“Food/Drinking Places” subsector.
Other popular sectors for this 25-34 cohort
are “Professional, Science & Technical”,
“Credit intermediation” and “Social
Assistance.” Conversely, “Air
Transportation” appears not to be an
attractive employment option for this age
cohort.
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Youth (25-34) Employment Concentration Index

What Occupations Attract the 25-34
Age Cohort
Youth Occupation Concentration
Index
This is similar to the previous slide,
but this looks at specific occupations
that, for whatever reason, the 25-34
age cohort tends to cluster in. Same
methodology applies – the higher the
value, the greater the concentration
of 25-34 year-olds in that occupation.
For example, this age cohort is 32
percent more likely to have a “Life,
physical and social science”
occupation than the overall
workforce. And this occupation pays
pretty well ($63,470).
Other popular occupations that pay
above average wages include
“Computer and mathematical”, “Arts,
design, entertainment, sports and
media”, “Healthcare practitioners and
technical”, “Business and financial”,
and, finally, “Architecture and
engineering”.
Occupation
Youth
Occupation
Index
Annual Mean Wage (in
metro Atlanta, as of May
2012)
Life, physical, and social science occupations 1.32 $ 63,470
Computer and mathematical occupations 1.29 $ 78,360
Healthcare support occupations 1.21 $ 28,190
Construction and extraction occupations 1.17 $ 40,390
Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations 1.16 $ 49,950
Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 1.15 $ 73,720
Protective service occupations 1.13 $ 34,390
Food preparation and serving related occupations 1.10 $ 20,340
Education, training, and library occupations 1.09 $ 46,800
Business and financial operations occupations 1.08 $ 72,750
Architecture and engineering occupations 1.06 $ 75,490
Community and social service occupations 1.04 $ 45,220
Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 1.03 $ 43,430
Legal occupations 1.00 $ 104,310
Personal care and service occupations 0.98 $ 23,090
Office and administrative support occupations 0.96 $ 34,920
Production occupations 0.93 $ 32,030
Sales and related occupations 0.92 $ 39,920
Transportation and material moving occupations 0.90 $ 37,260
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations 0.82 $ 24,840
Management occupations 0.78 $ 114,140
Average Wage for all occupations: $47,420

Employment Trends of the Young (Age 25-34) in Metro Atlanta

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Employment Trends of the Young (Age 25-34) in Metro Atlanta