This month's regional snapshot explores key trends among the 65+ age cohort in the 10-county Atlanta region. This snapshot is a compressed version of a longer product giving an overview of Aging demographics, as well as of issues impacting seniors in our region. This forthcoming product will also highlight activities and programs of the Atlanta Regional Commission's Aging & Health Resources group that address the aging population’s needs and challenges.
PPT BIJNOR COUNTING Counting of Votes on ETPBs (FOR SERVICE ELECTORS
Regional Snapshot: Exploration of Key Trends in the 65+ Age Cohort
1. Exploration of Key Trends in
the 65+ Age Cohort
For more information, contact:
mcarnathan@atlantaregional.com
2. Key Points
The 60+ age cohort population will increase more than all other age cohorts combined, comprising 51.5 percent of
all population growth between 2015 and 2040.
The majority of the White population in the 10-county region is older than 35. The converse is true for non-white
populations – the majority are younger than 35.
Many older adults experience isolation, which has been shown to have adverse health effects on par with smoking
15 cigarettes per day!
Approximately 36 percent of respondents age 65+ indicated that they had challenges accessing needed
transportation to get to places they need to go, almost 10 percentage points higher than all respondents to this
question.
Today, older adults are much more likely to remain in the workforce, as more than half of workers aged 65-69 are
considered to be in the workforce, compared to only 25 percent in 1990.
4. Past Trends in Median Age: Peer Metros and USA
27.9
37.8
36.1
26.5
25.0
26.0
27.0
28.0
29.0
30.0
31.0
32.0
33.0
34.0
35.0
36.0
37.0
38.0
39.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015
USA Dallas Atlanta Washington Charlotte Nashville
Source: Woods and Poole CEDDS 2018
Like much of the nation, the median age in metro Atlanta has gotten significantly older in the past 40+
years, going from a median age of 26.5 in 1970 to slightly older than 36 years as of 2015.
5. Historical Shares of Population 65+: Peer Metros and USA
Source: US Census Bureau; Woods and Poole CEDDS 2018; ARC Research & Analytics (access, processing, and analysis)
9.9
12.4
14.9
7.1
7.7
11.2
5.0
7.5
10.0
12.5
15.0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015
USA Dallas Atlanta Washington Charlotte Nashville
Even with the recent increases in the median age, metro Atlanta’s share of 65+ population is still lower than that of the
nation’s. Metro Atlanta has historically been a young region, and still is today, but growth in the older cohorts has been
the strongest.
6. Source: 2012-2016 ACS
Metro Atlanta is a Relatively Young Place
The highlighted purple areas are those neighborhoods
in the sate that have the highest percentages of those
age 65+. As can be seen, areas in the
northern parts of the state
have the highest
concentrations of older adults,
and there are relatively few of
these areas in the Atlanta
region. But areas in Fayette,
Spalding and the City of
Atlanta do have high
concentrations.
7. Projections for Median Age: Peer Metros and USA
37.8
40.0
36.1
37.8
33.0
34.0
35.0
36.0
37.0
38.0
39.0
40.0
41.0
2015 2020 2030 2040
USA Dallas Atlanta Washington Charlotte Nashville
Source: Woods and Poole CEDDS 2018; ARC Research & Analytics (access, processing, and analysis)
According to one source of population projections (Woods and Poole), the median age will continue to rise through the
year 2040…
8. Forecast Shares of Population 65+: Peer Metros and USA
14.9
20.5
11.2
17.6
10.0
12.5
15.0
17.5
20.0
22.5
25.0
2015 2020 2030 2040
USA Dallas Atlanta Washington Charlotte Nashville
Source: Woods and Poole CEDDS 2018; ARC Research & Analytics (access, processing, and analysis)
… and about 18 percent of metro Atlanta's population will be 65+ by 2040.
9. 0
25,000
50,000
75,000
100,000
125,000
150,000
175,000
200,000
225,000
250,000
275,000
300,000
325,000
350,000
375,000
400,000
425,000
0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
1990 1990-2015 2015-2040
Projected Growth By Age Group: 10-County Area
In the 10-county Atlanta region, the highest projected growth rates are concentrated in the older age cohorts. In fact, in
raw numbers, the 60+ age cohort will grow more than all other age cohorts combined, according to Woods and Poole
projections.
Source: Woods and Poole CEDDS 2018; ARC Research & Analytics (access, processing, and analysis)
10. Shares of Net Increase by Age: 10-County Area
18.7%
11.1%
9.9%
44.9%
15.4%
13.9%
4.5%
13.8%
22.5%
45.4%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0%
0-14
15-24
25-39
40-64
65+
1990-2015 2015-2040
As this chart shows, growth in the 65+ age cohort will comprise 45 percent of all population growth between 2015 and
2040.
Source: Census Bureau; ARC Series 15 Forecasts
11. Race/ Ethnicity by Age Cohort: Atlanta MSA, 2017
Source: 2017 Census Small-Area Estimates, accessed July 2018
16.3%
23.8%
11.5%
15.0%
12.9%
15.5%
28.4%
28.7%
14.4%
9.4%
16.5%
7.5%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%
White, NH
Minority
Age 0-14 Age 15-24 Age 25-34 Age 35-54 Age 55-64 Age 65+
In looking at race/ethnicity by age cohort, roughly 60 percent of the white, non-Hispanic population in the 10-county
region is older than 35. Conversely, the majority of the minority (i.e. non-white) population is younger than 35.
12. Shares of 65+: Forecast Trends for ARC Counties
Source: ARC Series 15 Forecasts
12.3%
8.6%
11.7%
10.9% 11.0%
18.0%
10.7%
9.4%
10.8%
13.4%
20.6%
17.0%
22.5%
18.5% 18.4%
28.6%
18.7%
21.1%
20.0%
18.9%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Cherokee Clayton Cobb DeKalb Douglas Fayette Fulton Gwinnett Henry Rockdale
2015 2040
Fayette County already has the highest share of those 65+, and that share is forecast to increase from 18 percent in 2015
to 29 percent in 2040.
13. What are the Housing Characteristics of
the 65+ Population?
14. Percent 65+ Living in Areas With the Highest
Concentrations of those Living Alone
Source: 2010-2014 ACS
70 percent of older adults will eventually
need help with activities such as eating,
bathing and dressing. A better range of
housing options are needed for older adults
to age in their communities, especially
rental properties that offer or are near basic
services such as transportation, personal
care and meals.
Note: This map highlights those areas with the highest
concentrations of those living alone, and the color ramp
shows, among these areas, where the greatest
concentrations of residents 65+ live
15. Housing Affordability for 65+
Source: 2010-2014 ACS
There is not enough quality,
affordable housing in metro
Atlanta to meet the needs of
the region’s fast-growing
population of older adults. 57
percent of metro Atlanta
renters aged 65+ spend more
than 30 percent of their income
on housing.
16. What are the Transportation
Characteristics of the 65+ Population?
17. Access to Transportation a Significant Concern
of Residents Age 65+
26.7%
71.0%
36.3%
54.2%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
Agree (including "Strongly) Disagree (including "Strongly")
"I frequently lack the transportation I need to get to places I need to go."
All respondents 65+
In the 2017 Metro Atlanta Speaks survey, approximately 36 percent of respondents age 65+ indicated that they had
challenges accessing needed transportation to get to places they need to go, almost 10 percentage points higher than all
respondents to this question.
Source: 2017 Metro Atlanta Speaks
18. 581,721 583,950
623,889
658,677
540,000
560,000
580,000
600,000
620,000
640,000
660,000
680,000
MARTA
Number of Paratransit (Demand Response) Trips
2013 2014 2015 2016
Paratransit Trips on the Rise
MARTA and other transit providers (see next slide) provide demand response trips to those with disabilities, a population that
includes many seniors. The number of demand response trips provided by MARTA (MARTA Mobility) has steadily increased
since, mirroring the trend of increases in older adults in the region.
20. What are the Economic Characteristics of
the 65+ Population?
21. Who is Working is Changing
25.3%
31.6%
50.4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Ages 65-69 Ages 70-74 Ages 75+
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Ages 16-19 Ages 25-29 Ages 45-54
Source: ARC Plan 2040 Transportation Update (2014) (10- County Area)
The composition of the workforce is changing. Today, older adults are much more likely to remain in the workforce, as more
than half of workers aged 65-69 are considered to be in the workforce, compared to only 25 percent in 1990.
22. Scenario Modeling: Potential Economic Impacts of
Increases in Retiree vs. Working Age Migration
Source: REMI Modeling Scenario
More in Personal Income
More in Additional GDP
What would happen if more retirees
moved to Metro Atlanta?
Assuming an annual increase of 1,000 65+ retired
migrants per year to 20-county economy from 2015-2040,
with distribution weighted on 65+ population in each
county.
*Note: No explicit costs considered
Potentially…
What would happen if more working age
(18-64) people move to Metro Atlanta?
More in Personal Income
More in Additional GDP
Assuming an annual increase of 1,000 migrants aged 18-
64 per year to 20-county economy from 2015-2040, with
distribution weighted on population aged 18-64 in each
county.
*Note: No explicit costs considered
Potentially…
23. Key Facts about the 65+ Workforcein Metro Atlanta
In 2000, there were almost 39,000 workers age 65+ in metro Atlanta. By 2017, that number
swelled to more than 106,000, an increase of 175 percent. By comparison, jobs held by those
aged 16-64 increased by only 18 percent over the same period.
Between 2007-2012, workers 65+ increased by 15,090 jobs while the 18-64 job base declined by
92,881 jobs. The Great Recession had a dramatic impact on the composition of the workforce.
As of 2017, those aged 65+ comprised only 5 percent of the economy’s jobs, but had filled nearly
20 percent of the net new jobs between 2000-2017.
Between 2000 and 2017, average wages for jobs filled by those 65+ went up 53 percent, while
wages for those ages 18-64 went up only 10 percent.
Source: Census Bureau Quarterly Workforce Indicators (ARC Analysis)
