1. Promoting Dairy Exports from India:
Emerging Challenges and Strategic Response
Dr. Rakesh Mohan Joshi
Professor and Chairperson
International Projects Division
Indian Institute of Foreign Trade
New Delhi INDIA
and
Project Director,
India Africa Institute of Foreign Trade,
Kampala, Uganda
www.rakeshmohanjoshi.com

2. How Global is the Dairy Industry?
• Only 7% of the milk produced worldwide is
internationally traded
• Expected growth in milk production and
consumption of dairy products in developing
countries would further reduce the ratio to 6%
in the next decade
• Thus, the focus of Dairy Industry remains local
rather than global at the most regional
January 15, 2013 Joshi, Rakesh Mohan 2

3. Globalization of Dairy Industry
• Growth in International Trade at 3% per annum
surpassed the growth of 2% in world dairy Production
during the last decade
• This reveals rapidly growing significance of
international trade and rising integration of global
production patterns and markets
• International Dairy Markets have witnessed a paradigm
shift from being supply driven to become demand
driven getting increasingly responsive to market signals
and consumer preferences rather than merely by
excess production and depressed prices
January 15, 2013 Joshi, Rakesh Mohan 3

4. Growing Significance of Developing
Countries in International Dairy Trade
• The traditional dominance of developed
countries in the world dairy markets seems to be
waning
• World milk production is projected to increase at
an annual average of 1.9 % during to the next
decade compared to 2.1% in the previous decade
• 73% of the additional milk production in the next
decade is likely to come from developing
countries out of which India and China would
account for 38% of the global gains
January 15, 2013 Joshi, Rakesh Mohan 4

5. Developed Countries Still Use High Level of Protectionism
for their Dairy Industry
Cross Country Comparison of Tariff Structure for Dairy Product (2011)
Average Bound Average Applied
Country (%) (%)
Canada 218.5 126.6
Japan 118.1 93.3
EU 50.5 48.3
India 65 33.7
US 19.8 20.3
Source: WTO Tariff Profile, WTO , 2011
January 15, 2013 Joshi, Rakesh Mohan 5

6. World Milk Production
(in Million Tons)
India’s milk
production to
equal that of
whole EU by 2021
180 166
158
160 149
140
117
120
103
100 87
80
60
60
43
38 38
40 32 36 33 31
24
17 17
20 11 13 11 11 12 9 11
0
European India USA China Russia Pakistan Brazil New Ukraine Argentina Australia Mexico
Union Zealand
2009-11 2021

7. Production and Per Capita Availability of
Milk in the World
300 140
273
266
251 260
116.4 120
250 233 112.2
107.9
217 102.6
100
Productionh (Million TOnnes)
92.5
Per Capita Availability(gms/day)
200 182
176 178
80.6
80
128
150
130 126
112 55.7 58
53.9 60
100
40
31.6
20 22
50 17 20
0 0
1950-51 1960-61 1970-71 1980-81 1990-91 1991-92 1992-93 2000-01 2004-05 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
Production (million Tonnes) Per Capita Availibility (gms/day)

8. World Milk Yield
(Tons/ Head)
12 11.4
10 9.4
8
7
6.5
6.2
6
5.9 5.9
5.1
4.8 4.5 4.8
4.3
4 3.6 3.7 4
3.4
3.2
2.8
2 1.3 1.4 1.3
1.2
1
1.2
0
2008-10 2020

9. World Dairy Export
(in US $ Billion)
80
75
70 66
64
57
60
50 44 52
42
39
40
32
28 27
30
20
10
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
January 15, 2013 Joshi, Rakesh Mohan 9

10. World’s Major Dairy Exporting Countries
2000 2009
Rest Of the Rest Of the
World New Zealand
Argentina World
17% 19% New Zealand
3% 24%
27%
Belarus
2%
Argentina
3%
USA
5% Belarus
5%
Australia
EU 27
16% EU 27
38% USA
8% 24%
Australia
9%
January 15, 2013 Joshi, Rakesh Mohan 10

11. Composition of World Dairy Exports
2001 2010
Whey and
Buttermilk natural milk Whey and
and yogurt products Buttermilk natural milk
6% 4% and yogurt products
6% 6%
Butter and
other milk- Butter and
fats other milk
10% fats
Cheese and 11%
curd Cheese and
Milk and 40% curd
cream, not 40%
Milk and
concentrated
cream, not
nor
concentrate
sweetened Milk and Milk and
d nor
10% cream, conce cream, conc
sweetened
ntrated or 11% entrated or
sweetened sweetened
30% 26%
January 15, 2013 Joshi, Rakesh Mohan 11

12. US$ Per Ton US$ Per Ton
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
1990 1990
1991 1991
1992 1992
1993 1993
1994 1994
1995 1995
1996 1996
1997 1997
1998 1998
1999 1999
2000 2000
2001 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2007
2007
2008
2008
(In real terms)
2009
2009
(In nominal terms)
2010
2010
2011
2011
2012
2012
2013
2013
2014
2014
2015
2015
Trends in International WMP and SMP Prices
2016
2016
2017
2017
2018
2018
2019
2019
2020
2020

13. US$ Per Ton
US$ Per Ton
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1990 1990
1991 1991
1992 1992
1993 1993
1994 1994
1995 1995
1996 1996
1997 1997
1998 1998
1999 1999
2000 2000
2001 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2007 2007
2008 2008
(in real terms)
2009 2009
(in nominal terms)
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
Trends in International Butter Prices
2014 2014
2015 2015
2016 2016
2017 2017
2018 2018
2019 2019
2020 2020

14. US$ Per Ton US$ Per Ton
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1990
1990
1991
1991
1992
1992
1993
1993
1994
1994
1995
1995
1996
1996
1997
1997
1998
1998
1999
1999
2000 2000
2001 2001
2002 2002
2003 2003
2004 2004
2005 2005
2006 2006
2007 2007
(in real terms)
2008 2008
(in nominal terms)
2009 2009
2010 2010
2011 2011
2012 2012
2013 2013
Trends in International Cheese Prices
2014 2014
2015 2015
2016 2016
2017 2017
2018 2018
2019 2019
2020 2020

15. India’s Dairy Trade
(in US $ Million)
300
270
250
200
177
169
156
150 147
115
109
100
89
75
63
50 26 51
42 40
3 22 14
4 25
16
14 13 15
10 11 13
1 8 4 5 27 8
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
EXports Imports

16. Composition of India’s Dairy Exports
2001 2011
Butter and other Buttermilk and
fats and oils yogurt Buttermilk and Whey and
Milk and derived from 0.15% Cheese and Milk and yogurt natural milk
cream, not milk curd cream, not 1.1% products nes
concentrated 12.68% 0.84% concentrated nor 0.8%
nor sweetened sweetened
0.03% 7.2%
Whey and
natural milk
products nes Cheese and curd
2.79% 11.1%
Milk and Milk and
cream, concentr cream, concentr
ated or ated or Butter and other
sweetened sweetened fats and oils
83.51% 15.3% derived from
milk
64.6%

17. Composition of India’s Dairy Imports
2001 2011
Milk and
cream, not
concentrated nor Butter and other Milk and
sweetened fats and oils Buttermilk and cream, not
0.19% derived from yogurt concentrated nor
Milk and milk 0.2% sweetened
cream, concentra 1.3%
Cheese and curd 0.2%
ted or sweetened
18.21% 4.2%
Whey and
natural milk
Cheese and curd
Buttermilk and products nes
19.95%
yogurt 11.1%
0.49%
Whey and
natural milk
Butter and other products nes
fats and oils 19.61%
derived from Milk and
milk cream, concentr
41.56% ated or
sweetened
83.0%

18. Direction of India’s Dairy Imports
2001 2011
United Arab
Emirates Japan
0% Others
1%
Nepal 3%
United Kingdom 4% Others
5% 24%
New Zealand New Zealand
15% 30%
Japan
Netherlands
3% 1%
Denmark
12%
United Arab
Emirates
United States of 1%
America Nepal
1% 1%
Australia United Kingdom
21% 1%
Germany Netherlands
1% 1%
Denmark
2%
United States ofGermany
America 5% Australia
3%
France 20%
France
34%
11%

19. Direction of India’s Dairy Exports
2001 2011
United Arab
Others Emirates
22% 23%
United Arab
Emirates
Others 23.4%
32.0%
United States of
America
3%
Egypt
3.4%
Morocco
3%
United States of
Nepal
America
2.1% 1.2% Australia Egypt
4% 15%
Australia Singapore
0.1% 1.0% Saudi Arabia
4%
Morocco
0.1% Oman
4%
Saudi Arabia Oman Bangladesh Singapore Nepal
2.9% 6.9% Bangladesh
6% 7% 9%
26.9%
January 15, 2013 Joshi, Rakesh Mohan 19

20. INTERNATIONAL DAIRY TRADE AND CHALLENGES FOR
INDIA
• Growth in milk Production not keeping pace with surge in Demand is
expected to rise milk imports in coming years
• Gradual opening up of Indian market for imports and with the entry of MNCs
in the dairy sector, competition in the high value added segment and
branded dairy products has rapidly intensified in the recent years and is
likely to grow with their fierce marketing strategies, operational efficiencies
and global supply chain management.
• India as a nation is tend to loose more by importing value added and
branded milk products than basic milk constituents such as butter oil or milk
powders
January 15, 2013 Joshi, Rakesh Mohan 20

21. Bring Innovation to Compete
in International Markets
– Innovation across the dairy value chain
– Increase emphasis on value added products, consistently Explore Product
Differentiation and build brands that have capacity to compete and survive
the fiercely growing competition from multinational players
– Invest in R&D, develop New Products, plan Product Obsolesce to Pave Way
for New Products
– Develop a few national brands on the pattern of Amul and taking them
internationally
– Resort to competitive marketing strategies
– Employ innovation to enter international markets including setting up
overseas operations and internationalization of Research and off-shoring
dairy services
January 15, 2013 Joshi, Rakesh Mohan 21

22. January 15, 2013 Joshi, Rakesh Mohan 22