This report provides detailed analysis on automobile sales data for the month of October, 2019.

1. AUTO SALES DATA ANALYSIS OCT-2019

2. Indian auto companies delivered a strong volume performance across segments (barring MHCVs) in Oct’19 on the back of
festival purchases and pent-up demand of past 8-10 months. Marked MoM rise and strong retail offtake indicated some
level of tangible inventory correction. While retails set new records, OEMs’ focus on inventory correction; aimed as a
preparation for BS–VI transition, resulted in a YoY decline in 2W, PV and tractor wholesales. CV volumes remain weak due
to high base and surplus capacity with transporters. In case of tractors, sales remained flat YoY supported by a seasonally
strong month.
Auto Sales Oct’19..Healthy Festive demand
lends support..
Snapshot of volumes for Oct-19 (incl. exports)
121,815
91,448
213,263
94,765
34,980
33,307
68,287
60,516
93,276
70,597
163,873
87,795
17,799
25,764
43,563
47,866
125,036
83,210
208,246
86,653
17,050
27,067
44,117
58,786
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Cars Uvs+MPVs Total PVs 3Ws M&HCVs LCVs Total CVs Tractors
Oct-18 Sep-19 Oct-19

4. Passenger Vehicles Market share and Oct’19 Sales analysis:
During the past months, customers have been holding on their purchase decision due to confusion over the validity of
BS-IV vehicles (extent of registration period), electric vehicles and uncertainty over goods and services rate cut for
autos. Clarity on these issues translated into release of pent-up demand during the festive season. Also, cut in interest
rates and a healthy retail financing push by the government supported demand, along with hefty discounts and offers.
PV industry sales fell 6% YoY in October compared with a 30% decline in the September quarter. In the PV segment,
except Maruti (MSIL), all players reported high double-digit YoY decline.
MoM % YoY %
Market
share %
MSIL 25.95 2.33 48.90
Tata
Motors
62.64 -28.00 4.63
Hyundai 22.86 -3.83 17.58
M&M 32.17 -23.29 6.49
Toyota 16.30 -5.87 4.17
Honda 7.62 -29.44 3.52
Ford 26.30 -22.41 2.47
Others 38.62 113.35 12.25
135,948
18,290
52,001
24,066
12,606
14,187
9,044
16,327
110,454
8,097
40,705
13,967
10,203
9,301
5,556
25,129
139,121
13,169
50,010
18,460
11,866
10,010
7,017
34,834
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Maruti
Suzuki
Tata
Motors
Hyundai M&M Toyota Honda Ford Others
PV Sales (units)
Oct-18 Sep-19 Oct-19

5. Maruti Suzuki (MSIL)
MSIL Sales Oct-19 Growth MoM Growth YoY
Mini 42.08% -13.09%
Compact 31.33% 15.91%
Mid-Size 38.25% -39.08%
MUVs 7.35% 11.29%
Vans 0.62% -26.76%
LCV (Super Carry) 18.72% 12.87%
Sales to OEMs -7.62% -
Total Domestic Sales 24.97% 4.47%
 After six consecutive months of double-digit decline, MSIL delivered better YoY performance in Oct’19 on the back
of strong festival sales. Total sales increased 25.11% MoM and 4.54% YoY to 153,435 units, where exports rose
27.4% MoM and 5.68% YoY to 9,158 units.
 Growth in UV volume was supported by launch of new Ertiga-based SUV XL6 in August 2019. Shifting of segment of
new WagonR from Mini to Compact impacted the segmental sales volume.
 MSIL’s overall sales performance is slowly getting better, while the company also indicated strong improvement in
enquiry level over the past 2 months. Company’s retail sales grew by single digit YoY during the festive season.
 Meanwhile, MSIL cut production by a fifth in October amid sluggish demand in the local market. This is the ninth
consecutive month that the company has cut production.
32,835
64,789
3,892
20,764
13,668
2,152
0
138,100
20,085
57,179
1,715
21,526
9,949
2,046
2,952
115,452
28,537
75,094
2,371
23,108
10,011
2,429
2,727
144,277
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Mini Compact Mid-Size MUVs Vans LCV
(Super
Carry)
Sales to
OEMs
Total
Domestic
Sales
Oct-18 Sep-19 Oct-19

6.  M&M’s total 4-W sales for the month fell 13.2% YoY, dragged by M&HCV segment (down 28.3%). The company
outperformed peers in the CV space, with volumes falling by a mere ~3% YoY against 30%+ decline for rivals. Auto
volumes (including exports) improved by 19.7% on MoM basis. However, it fell 11% YoY to 51,896 units. Exports
rose 1.96% MoM but were down 11.83% YoY to 2,703 units.
 The company highlighted that retail volumes exceeded wholesale by approximately 40%; led by both passenger &
commercial vehicles.
Mahindra & Mahindra
M&M Sales Oct-19
Growth
MoM
Growth
YoY
Passenger
Cars
42.11% -62.23%
Passenger
UVs
28.34% -20.17%
4W 26.26% -1.87%
LCV -2.36% -11.31%
M&HCV -1.47% -41.14%
1,787
22,279
23,157
513
683
475
13,858
17,998
466
408
675
17,785
22,725
455
402
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Passenger Cars Passenger UVs 4W LCV M&HCV
Oct-18 Sep-19 Oct-19

7. Tata Motors Sales Oct-19
Growth
MoM
Growth
YoY
M&HCV -3.72% -62.89%
I &LCV 8.62% -20.84%
SCV & Pick up 15.11% -14.59%
Passenger
Carriers
-20.98% -46.44%
Domestic CV 7.02% -34.09%
Domestic PV 62.64% -28.00%
Total Domestic 13.81% -33.71%
 Tata Motors’ JLR reported a 5.5% YoY fall in its retail sales at 41,866 vehicles for October. Sales in China were up by
16.2% YoY while UK sales declined by 18.7% YoY. Sales in Europe and Overseas reduced 7.9% and 10.8%, respectively
while sales in North America were down by 0.3%. Tata Motors’ total sales were down by 33.6% YoY and up 13.7%
MoM to 41,354 units, where exports stood at 2,202 units (-51.6% YoY, -45% MoM).
 Subdued demand sentiment due to poor freight availability, lower freight rates and slowdown in the economy
continued to hamper the CV demand. For CV, retail volumes were 24% higher than wholesale volumes in October
2019. The enquiries have increased compared to last month in M&HCV and LCV, with fleet owners initiating
discussions for replacement of older vehicles.
 PV segment saw positive customer response to new product launches like Harrier Dark edition and Nexon Kraz+.
Retail sales were ahead of wholesales by over 36% for PVs.
 Overall system stock is now at a multi-quarter low, which coupled with increasing enquiries, and the government's
thrust on infrastructure investments, will help firm-up volumes and realisations in the coming months.
Tata Motors
13,185
4,841
18,209
3,185
18,290
5,082
3,528
13,510
2,159
8,097
4,893
3,832
15,552
1,706
13,169
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
M&HCV I &LCV SCV & Pick up Passenger Carriers Total PV
Oct-18 Sep-19 Oct-19

8. Ashok Leyland CV Sales Oct-19
Growth MoM Growth YoY
M&HCV 13.14% -49.62%
SCV/LCV 18.16% -14.59%
Total
(Domestic)
15.58% -36.73%
 Company reports a 50% drop in domestic M&HCV sales in October, led mainly by a decline in truck volumes. Total
sales were down 35% YoY to 9,857 units while exports were down 3% YoY and down 15.7% MoM to 783 units.
 The commercial vehicle major in October suspended manufacturing at its various plants for up to 15 days. The
company also proposes to observe up to 12 non-working days during the month of November, in order to align
production in line with the market demand for its products.
 After receiving the certificates confirming compliance to BS-VI emission standard from Automotive Research
Association of India (ARAI), Ashok Leyland claims it becomes the first Indian OEM to meet the BS-VI emission
norms across the full range of heavy duty trucks (GVW of 16.2T and above).
Ashok Leyland
9,062
5,279
14,341
4,035 3,816
7,851
4,565 4,509
9,074
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
M&HCV SCV/LCV Total (Domestic)
Oct-18 Sep-19 Oct-19

10. Two-Wheelers Sales Volume Analysis
 2W volumes declined ~15% YoY as OEMs corrected inventory from 55-65 days to 30 days.
 Clarity with respect to no change / reduction in GST rates, sales momentum picked-up during Oct’19, especially during
Diwali. For all major 2W OEMs, YoY sales decline reduced driven by festive season and aggressive discounts.
 Going forward, overhang of BS6 transition is likely to remain on 2W sales, as percentage costup will be higher in 2Ws.
2W Sales Oct-19
Growth
MoM
Growth
YoY
Hero
MotoCorp
2Ws
-2.12% -18.43%
Bajaj Auto
2Ws
18.47% -7.87%
TVS Motor
co. 2W
2.41% -19.81%
Eicher RE
(2W) sales
20.95% 2.15%
Total 2W 5.27% -15.05%
734,668
432,985
384,307
70,451
1,622,411
612,204
336,730
300,909
59,500
1,309,343
599,248
398,913
308,161
71,964
1,378,286
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
Hero MotoCorp
2Ws
Bajaj Auto 2Ws TVS Motor co. 2W Eicher RE (2W)
sales
Total 2W
Oct-18 Sep-19 Oct-19

11. Two-Wheelers Sales Volume Analysis
 Hero MotoCorp recorded highest-ever retail sales of ~1.28m units in Oct’19, with double-digit growth in
motorcycles, driven by growth in the premium segment. Wholesale volume, however, declined as it corrected
dealer inventory to 30 days; lowest in the past 24 months. The company’s Upcoming Launches: Scooter ZIR150, -
Nov 2019; Dare125 & Duet-E. – Dec 2019
 Bajaj Auto posted 7.9% YoY decline in 2W sales, led by 13.9% YoY decline in domestic 2W sales as it corrected its
dealer inventory (lowest in the last 18 months). Bajaj, however, had the best retail sales ever as it witnessed 28%
growth over festive season YoY. Export 2W volumes grew by 3.3% YoY to 156,397 and were down 1.9% MoM.
Management estimated Bajaj to have outpaced industry growth by 15%, thus, gaining retail market share. The
company forayed into the electric two-wheeler market with iconic scooter Chetak.
 For TVS Motor, 2W sales declined by 19.8% YoY, due to decline across motorcycles, scooters and mopeds as the
company corrected its inventory ahead of BSVI transition. Moped segment continued to hurt performance the
most. However, sales improved sequentially on account of festive demand and good consumer offers. wo-wheeler
exports grew by 22% YoY (-4% MoM) to 55,477 units. In MoM terms, the company’s performance lagged Bajaj
Auto and Eicher Motors.
 Eicher Motors’ Royal Enfield posted a growth of 2% YoY driven by 160% growth in higher cc segment, led by good
traction in Twins in the international markets. Its 350cc segment posted a 5% YoY volume decline. Sequentially, RE
sales increased by 20.9% on the back of strong festive demand and increase in penetration. There was a 10-fold
YoY jump in export volumes of RE to 4,426 in October 2019 as against 407 in October 2018. Domestic dispatches at
RE were down 3.6% YoY but sequential improvement (up 23.1%) was encouraging.

13. 3W Sales Oct-19
Growth
MoM
Growth
YoY
TVS Motor 1.36% 7.70%
Bajaj Auto -1.55% -12.78%
M&M -4.49% 3.17%
Total 3W -1.30% -8.56%
Three Wheelers Sales Analysis
 3W volumes for Bajaj Auto were down ~13% YoY as domestic/export volumes declined ~5.5%/21% YoY. Weak
export demand in Egypt impacted exports.
 TVS Motor's 3Ws posted a growth of 7.7% on the back of strong exports. It continued the recent trend of
outperforming rival Bajaj Auto on the 3W front.
14,120
73,714
6,931
94,765
15,003
65,305
7,487
87,795
15,207
64,295
7,151
86,653
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
TVS Motor Bajaj Auto M&M Total 3W
Oct-18 Sep-19 Oct-19

15. Tractor Segment Sales Analysis
Tractor Sales Oct-19
Growth
MoM
Growth
YoY
M&M 22.76% -4.10%
Escorts 23.01% 1.62%
 Tractor segment reported flat YoY volume performance on a high base.
 Tractor sales improved sharply on MoM basis, on the back of above average rainfall, which augers well for upcoming
rabi sowing season, and increase in Kharif yields.
 M&M reported 26% YoY decline in tractor export volumes due to inventory correction in October 2019.
47,376
13,140
37,011
10,855
45,433
13,353
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
M&M Escorts
Oct-18 Sep-19 Oct-19

16. Key Announcements :
 Karnataka is working on a draft building bye-law to mandate residential and commercial buildings in the
state to set aside 20% of their parking space for EV charging facilities.
 PMI Electro Mobility Solutions Pvt Ltd (PEMSPL) announced its plans to invest Rs 500 crore along with its
Chinese partner Beiqi Foton Motor Co (Foton) for setting up an electric bus manufacturing plant at Pune
in the next two to three years.
 Maruti Suzuki has said it will not commercially launch electric car, which it has been testing, for personal
use in 2020, citing lack of infrastructure and government support.
 Tata Sons is planning to inject Rs 6,500 crore into Tata Motors, as part of Rs 10k cr fundraising; proceeds
to be used to pare debt and refinance loans.
 Tata Group, the owner of JLR, has approached carmakers including China’s Zhejiang Geely Holding Group
Co. and BMW AG as it seeks partnerships for the beleaguered British automotive business, to save costs
& share burden of investing in e-cars.
 Tata Motors announced its first electric car for personal buyers - a more-practical version of its Tigor EV.
The company also launched imited edition Tiago Wizz in October.

17. Key Announcements :
 Mahindra Two Wheelers Europe, a subsidiary of Mahindra & Mahindra, will acquire 100% ownership of
Peugeot Motocycles (PMTC) to drive future growth in core European markets and expand into new
geographies, including select Asian markets.
 M&M recalled a limited batch of XUV300 vehicles to fix a faulty suspension component. The proactive
inspection and replacement of the component was carried on a limited batch of compact SUV that were
manufactured till May 19, 2019.
 TVS Motor Co. has announced partnership with Cadisa, one of the largest business groups across
Guatemala and El Salvador, for the opening of 15 flagship outlets for TVS Motor in a phased manner.
 Bajaj Auto and TVS Motor Co. have settled a decade-old dispute related to a patent infringement case
with the two companies withdrawing several pending proceedings from various courts. The decade-old
dispute was related to alleged infringement of Bajaj's patent for digital twin spark plug ignition
technology.
 Maruti Suzuki India and Toyota Tsusho Group will set up its vehicle dismantling and recycling unit in
Noida, Uttar Pradesh by 2020 and will add more such units across India. MSI will hold 50% share while
Toyota Tsusho Group companies -- Toyota Tsusho Corporation and Toyota Tsusho India Pvt Ltd -- will hold
the remaining stake.

18. YoY Wholesale numbers fell for almost all of them except Maruti Suzuki. Truck makers
continued to suffer with market leader Tata Motors’ sales falling by 32% YoY while sales at
Ashok Leyland crashed 37%. Unlike cars and two-wheelers, the festive season does not
impact the M&HCV segment. This is because a truck operator will buy a new truck only if he
sees guaranteed business or will have a new contract for 6-12 months of next fiscal.
Tata Motors Ltd, Ashok Leyland, Volvo Eicher Commercial Vehicles Ltd remain hopeful of
advance purchases of BS-IV M&HCVs in the second half of FY20.
MoM numbers are clearly better than YoY ones as steep discounts and offers revived
consumer sentiment in October dominated by festive season. However, sales trend after the
end of the festive season needs to be watched as OEMs moderate consumer schemes; it is
too early to predict a turnaround. Many of the factors contributing to the auto slowdown still
remain. High cost of buying cars due to mandatory emission and safety norms, increase in
road tax of up to 7% across nine states and upfront payment of three years third party
insurance have all increased the on-road price of a car. Besides, liquidity crunch has made it
difficult for the dealers and customers to get financing for inventory as well as purchase.
Further, confusion in the mind of the customers regarding the transition of vehicles from BS-
IV to BSVI continue to be there.
Our view

19. Scrappage policy is a key event to watch out for. The policy is expected to propel automobile
sales in the country, which have been on the low side for the past few years, by discouraging
the use of older vehicles possibly through measures like increasing re-registration fee and
providing incentives for new vehicles with BS VI norms and also EVs. The list of proposals also
includes mandating annual renewal of fitness certificates for commercial vehicles, which is
expected to drive people into opting for vehicle scrapping. An associated benefit to this is of
course the rise in job opportunities, both in the automobile sector with its growth, as well as
with the establishment of new scrapping centres in the country. The policy is still in the draft
stage and going by developments over time.
Our view

20. Disclaimer
Prepared By:
Research Analyst: Sangam Chaudhary
Email ID: sangamchaudhary@adroitfinancial.com
Phone Number: 0120-4550300*270/388
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