Rice production, area, and consumption have increased substantially in sub-Saharan Africa between 2008-2018, however self-sufficiency levels have decreased. While rice area and production grew by 40% and 55% respectively, consumption rose even faster at 81%, leading to a widening gap. Yield growth also slowed after initial increases following the 2008 food crisis. To achieve rice self-sufficiency by 2025, production would need to increase at over 16% annually through increased investments estimated at $2.7 billion under a new investment plan for 10 pilot countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Additional policy measures are also needed such as reducing rice imports and supporting improved technologies, organization of value chains, and market access for producers.

1. Rice Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa
(2008-2018)
Compiled by AfricaRice
Presented by Dr Harold Roy-Macauley
Director General, Africa Rice Center (AfricaRice)
High Level Ministerial Conference
Dakar, Senegal, 25 September 2018

2. Outline
1. Introduction
2. Production, area and yield trends
3. Milled rice production and consumption
4. Achievement of self-sufficiency objectives
5. Looking forward
6. Conclusion

3. Introduction
 Global food crisis in 2007-2008
• Soaring food prices & riots in sub-Saharan Africa(SSA) in 2008
• Increased awareness for the production of more and better food
 Rice is a staple food for about half of the world’s population
and provides 20% of the calories
 Rice is consumed by more than 750 million people in SSA
 An important dietary energy source and employment
opportunities
 Presentation shows rice trends over the last decade in SSA &
progress made in achieving self-sufficiency objectives

4. Rice world market
• Rice world market is volatile
• Rice exports in the world totaled US$ 20.7
billion in 2017 down by an average of
19% from 2013 when it was US$ 25.7
billion
• India is top exporter (31% of the export in
2017-2018)
• Droughts of 2014-15 put a crunch on the
Indian rice market
• Climatic conditions in particular are
affecting the rice production in the major
producing regions of India and may affect
world market rice in the future
• China first world producer imported rice
for US$ 1.5 billion in 2015
3200
3200
4300
7000
11000
13000
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Burma
United States
Pakistan
Vietnam
Thailand
India
Main rice exporting countries in the
world in 2018 (1000 tons)
SSA should not continue to rely
on rice importation

5. Rice imports in SSA countries
• Continues to increase
• Increased by 45% from
7.3 Mt to 16 Mt
• Estimated import bill for
2018: US$ 6.4 billion 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
Rice importation in SSA countries
Rice import in SSA countries

6. Rice area
• Increased by 40% from
8.5 M ha to 11.9 M ha
• 2008-2012: rate of
increase at 24%
• 2012-2016: rate of
increase at 16%
• 2016-2018: remained
constant
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Area Harvested SSA countries (1000 ha)

7. Rice area per region
West Africa: Growth rate of 52%, from 5.3 M ha to 8 M ha
Central/Southern: Growth rate of 35%, from 0.8 M ha to 1.1 M ha
East Africa: Growth rate of 22%, from 2.4 M ha to 2.9 M ha
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Rice area harvested per region x 1000 ha
Central &South Africa East Africa West Africa

8. Rice yield
1.80
1.90
2.00
2.10
2.20
2.30
2.40
Yield in Sub-Saharan Africa
Yield in Sub-Saharan Africa countries (t/ha)
• Increased by 7% from 2.05
t/ha to 2.2 t/ha
• Two phased yield trend
1. 2008-2012 (after food crisis):
yield increased by 15% from
2.05 t/ha to 2.37 t/ha
2. 2012-2018: yield decreased by
7% from 2.37 t/ha to 2.22 t/ha
Decrease in yield after the food crisis attributed to policy measures
(government support) that did not sustain yield growth

9. Rice yield per region
• East Africa: highest yield of
2.63 to 2.81 t/ha
• Central and Southern
Africa: lowest yield of 1 to
1.5 t/ha
• West Africa: highest yield
rate increase of 9.5% from
2.42 to 2.65 t/ha
• Central/Southern Africa at
9.1% from 1.10 to 1.20 t/ha
• East Africa by 6.8% from
2.63 to 2.81 t/ha
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
Rice yield in Sub-Saharan
Africa
Central &South Africa East Africa West Africa

10. Rice yield in the world and in SSA
Between 2012-2018
• Increase in yield globally by 2%
• Decrease in yield in SSA by 7%
In 2008
• Difference in global and SSA
yields was 2.18 t/ha with global
yield at 4.23 t/ha and SSA yield at
2.05 t/ha
In 2018
• Difference in global and SSA
yields increased to 2.29 t/ha with
global yield at 4.51 t/ha and SSA
yield at 2.22 t/ha
High yield difference exists between world and SSA yields
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
5.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Yield in Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and World
Yield in World Yield in Asia Yield in SSA

11. Paddy production
• Production increased by 55%:
from 17.03 Mt in 2008 to
26.31 Mt in 2018
• Increase in production mainly
due to rice area expansion
• Between 2009 & 2012:
steeper slope in production
increase noted: corresponded
to increased rice yield
observed between 2008 &
2012
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
Paddy rice production in Sub-Saharan
Africa
Rough Production in SSA countries

12. Paddy production per region
• West Africa: fastest growth at 73% from 10,424 t to 18,027 t
• Central & Southern Africa: 47%, from 760 t to 1,120 t
• East Africa: 32% from 5,717 t to 7,531 t
Note : Similar trend observed in rice area expansion
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Paddy rice production in ton
Central &South Africa East Africa West Africa

13. Paddy production in the world
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
Paddy rice production in Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and World
Paddy production in World Paddy production inAsia Paddy production in SSA
• 2008 – 2018 SSA: Production increased by 55% from 17.03 Mt to 26.31 Mt
• 2008 - 2018 World: production increased by 8% from 602.7 Mt to 650.9 Mt
• 2018 - Asia accounts for 89% of total paddy rice production in the World (650.9
Mt in Asia against 727.9 Mt in the world)

14. Milled rice production vs consumption in SSA
• Consumption increased
faster than production
• Consumption increased
by 81% while production
increased by 55%
• Gap between
consumption and
production has increased
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Milled rice production and consumption in SSA countries
Milled Production in SSA Consumption in SSA (1000 MT)

15. Rice self-sufficiency in SSA
Rice self-sufficiency decreased from 61% to 52% in SSA countries
between 2008 and 2018
61
56
61
55
57
54
56
57
55
52 52
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
62
Self-sufficiency ratio of Sub-Saharan Africa countries

16. Meeting Self-sufficiency per country
• Between 2008 to 2018 no
SSA country has achieved
the self-sufficiency objective
• Three countries (Tanzania,
Madagascar and Mali) have
more than 85% of self-
sufficiency 7
10
17
18
22
22
24
25
30
33
34
39
44
48
50
50
51
55
61
65
67
86
86
92
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Angola
Kenya
Gambia The
Niger
Benin
Togo
Mozambique
Cameroon
Burkina
Liberia
Senegal
Guinea Bisseau
Ghana
Cote d'Ivoire
Rwanda
Mauritania
Congo (RDC)
Nigeria
Sierra Leone
Uganda
Guinea
Mali
Madagascar
Tanzania
Achievment against Self-sufficiency objective
% of
achievement
Number of
countries
Less than 25 7
25-50 7
50-75 7
75-100 3

17. Rice imports in SSA
Nigeria
• Increased rice imports by 71%
• Import share of total rice imports
decreased from 24% in 2008 to
18% in 2018
Senegal
• Increased rice imports by 83%
• Import share of total rice imports
decreased from 9% in 2008 to
7% in 2018
Cote d’Ivoire
• Increased rice imports by 100%
• Import share of total rice imports
decreased from 11% in 2008 to
10% in 2018
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Rice importation-biggest importers (Nigeria, Cote
d'Ivoire and Senegal)
Rice import in SSA countries Nigeria Senegal Cote d'Ivoire

18. Projection toward 2025
• Based on the annual average
growth rate of production over
the last decade at 4.6%, milled
rice production is projected at
23.19 Mt in 2025
• Based on the annual growth
rate of consumption over the
last decade of 6.2%,
consumption is projected at
49.25 Mt in 2025
• To realize rice self-sufficiency
up to 2025 in SSA countries,
production must increase by
an annual growth rate of
16.5%
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
Scenarii of rice production and consumption in
SSA countries (2008 to 2025)
Investment Plan: Milled Production (1000 MT)
Domestic Consumption (1000 MT)
Business as usual: Milled Production (1000 MT)

19. Impact of rice research in SSA
• AfricaRice and its partners have
developed a number of
technological and institutional
innovations in rice value chain
• Improved rice varieties have lifted 8
million people out of poverty and
provided food security to 7.2
million in SSA over the period
2000-2014
• Adoption of improved rice varieties has increased rice yield by at least 320
kg/ha
• Adoption is however low due to mainly awareness and availability

20. Going forward
Rice sector development objectives in SSA
• Major objectives going forward:
 Increase rice production
 Accelerate self-sufficiency in rice
 Increase investments
• Modeling investment requirements: Continental Investment
Plan for accelerating Rice Self-Sufficiency in Africa
(CIPRiSSA)
• Pilot test in 10 countries in SSA (Senegal, Sierra Leone, Côte
d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Nigeria, Cameroon, Uganda, Tanzania,
Madagascar)

21. Annual additional investments for 10 pilot
countries (US$ million)
Total investment needed over 8 years: USD 2754 million
210 214 219 224 229 234 239 244
108 111 114 116 119 122 125 128
318 325 332 340 348 355 364 372
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Total non-irrigation Investment (US$ million) Total new irrigation invesment (US$ million)
Total investment (US$million)
Costs(MillionofUS$)
Costs(MillionofUS$)

22. Expected gains from additional investments
Additional milled rice Foreign exchange savings
4.3
3.3
4.1
11.7
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Expected additional
production from rainfed
upland (million t)
Expected additional
production from irigated
(million t)
Expected additional
production from rainfed
lowland (milliont)
Expected additional
production from the 3
ecologies (million t)
334
2,675
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Annual Foreign exchange
savings (US$ million)
Total Foreign exchange
savings (US$ million)

23. Going forward
Additional policy measures
• Reduction of rice importation: needs to be sustained
especially in major rice consumption countries ( Nigeria,
Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire)
• Focusing investment in the following areas of the value
chain: development and use of improved technologies such
as quality seeds, fertilizer, small scale mechanization, and
value addition
• Efficient organization of the rice value chains: develop and
introduce best-fit contract farming; link producers to industries,
markets, banks, insurance; use information technologies

24. Conclusion
1. Between 2008 to 2018 no SSA country has achieved rice self-
sufficiency objective
2. Three countries are very close to the target : Tanzania, Madagascar
& Mali
3. Increase in production and consumption but gap continues to
increase
4. Trends in yield showed that policy measures were not sustained
5. Climate effect on production in big exporting countries may negatively
affect the importation of rice in SSA
6. To realize rice self-sufficiency by 2025, domestic production must
increase at a rate of 16.5% per annum
7. This requires increased investments and strong policy measures

25. Thank you