2022 ANNUAL RESEARCH AND POLICY CONFERENCE – AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND FOOD SECURITY IN SUDAN

1. The Architecture of the Sudanese Agricultural Sector
Alzaki Alhelo |
UoK | Department of Economics

2. Outline|
 Introduction| Abstract, and Agricultural Sector Structure
 The Sudan Agricultural Sector Performance |
- Contribution to GDP Growth
- Contribution to Exports
- Contribution to Employment
- Productivity Performance of Key Crops
 Investment in Agriculture |
- Government Expenditure
- Banking Sector
- Household Expenditure
- Planning
 Climate Change |
- Key Climate Stressors
- Response and Mitigation
 Concluding Remarks |

3. Abstract |
 This paper aims at reviewing the performance of the agricultural sector in Sudan in the last three
decades (1990-1999, 2000-2010, 2011-2021) and the drivers of the performance.
 The key findings of the review are, the sector`s contribution to GDP was high in the first decade
compared to the other decades, productivity was high in the first decade compared to the second
decade.
 Despite the poor performance, the sector was the main source of employment and livelihood. In the
last decade, the sector restored it`s leading position as a major source of foreign currency.
 Investment in agriculture is very low, government spending allocated to the sector is very low.
There is a lack of commitment to development plans while, the recent efforts were distrusted by the
political developments in the country.
 Climate change manifested in raising temperature, declining rainfall, droughts is currently affecting
the sector. The paper ends up with some broad recommendations that might lead to better
performance in the sector.

4.  The Sudanese Agricultural Sector | The Structure

5. 1. The Sudan Agricultural Sector Performance |
 Contribution to GDP |
 Poor performance of sector, in terms of the sector contribution to real GDP growth, the
sector led the growth before oil era with a considerable contribution to real GDP growth,
whereas, the sector`s growth shrank during and after oil era

6.  Contribution to Exports |
- Agriculture was the main source of exports before 1999 nearly 90% of exports
- However, this importance of the sector as a main source of exports sharply decreased with the
introduction of oil during (1999-2010)
- Recently, the sector becomes a major source of exports with more than 50% of total exports
come from the sector

7.  Contribution to Employment |
⁃ The sector is still the main source of livelihood and income particularly in rural areas

8.  Performance of Productivity |
Very low productivity compared to:
- Historical Record of Sudan`s Agriculture Productivity (Igaimi, 2016)
- Other competitor Countries in the continent

10. 2. Investment in Agriculture |
 Government Expenditure |
− Very low and less than 10%!
− Concentrated in the irrigated sector

11.  Agriculture in National Planning |
 Lack of commitment to implementation of the plans
 October, 25, 2022 procedures
o Post 2018:
1). The Five-Year Economic Reform Program (FYERP) (2015-2019)
2). Sudan`s National Agriculture Investment Plan (SUDNAIP) (2016-2020)
o After 2018:
3). The Three-Year Economic Stability and Development Program (2021-2023)
4). Sudan Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (2021-2023)

12. 3. Climate Change |
 Key Stressors |
⁄ Rainfall is projected to decrease, in fact, it is decreasing compared to the past years, according to
(FAO, 2022), rainfall decreased in 2021 compared to 2020. Precipitation will decrease by 4% per
decade so, in 2050 compared to 2020, it will decrease by 12 % cumulatively (Siddig et al., 2020)
⁄ Temperature will increase by 3OC (Siddig et al., 2020). In the last two decades, Sudan witnessed
repeated episodes of droughts (HCENR, 2020 p 41)
⁄ Future droughts threat 19 million hectares in rainfed agriculture and livestock (Hassan et al, 2022)
⁄ Desertification of arable land is also threating food production (Zakieldeen, 2009) (). In 2020,
Sudan experienced an unprecedented flood with enormous damage to productivity, infrastructure
and human life
Recent Contributions: (Hassan et al., 2022) (Siddig et al., 2020) (HCENRUNEP, 2020).

13. 4. Some Policy Issues|
 Bigger government role is strongly recommended in terms of more resources to the sector (at least
10%)
 Institutional reforms (agricultural institutions restricting, macroeconomic stability, public sector
reform)
 Economic modeling of agricultural sector outcomes and public policy evaluation in the sector will
help in adopting of sound policies
 Updating the existence economic development plans with a clear quantitative target including
climate change response
 Industrial Policy: Encouraging related industries that can help in making value added in agriculture
 Land issues should receive more attention, institutional arrangements as described in Juba Peace
Agreement and (Elbadawi et al., 2022) should be adopted
 Addressing productivity constraints