2022 ANNUAL RESEARCH AND POLICY CONFERENCE – AGRICULTURAL TRANSFORMATION AND FOOD SECURITY IN SUDAN

1. Sudan Country Strategy
Support Program
Sudan’s Agri-Food System Diagnostic
The SSSP is
Funded by: Hosted by:
Khalid Siddig, Xinshen Diao, and Mariam Raouf
International Food Policy Research Institute
IFPRI 2022 Annual and Policy Research Conference | Khartoum, Sudan | October 10, 2022

2. Framework | Agri-Food Systems (AFS)
Primary agriculture
Agroprocessing
Trade and transport
Food services
Trade and transport
Input supply Demand
Consumption of own-
produced goods
Purchase of primary
agricultural goods
Purchase of processed
agri-food goods
Purchase of ready-made
foods outside of home
Imports
A
C
B
D
E
Includes agriculture, plus all upstream/downstream sectors
• Five major components (A to E)
• Same format as standard economywide datasets (e.g., national
accounts)
• Allows us to measure AFS structure and performance using actual
data
Agri-Food System GDP (AgGDP+) : Total value added generated by all agricultural value chains (in constant dollars)
Agri-Food System Employment (AgEMP+) : Total number of workers who are primarily employed in an agricultural value chain
GDP
($ billions)
Employment
(millions of workers)
Total economy 39.9 100% 12.4 100%
Agri-food system 13.9 35.0% 7.0 56.8%
Primary agric. (A) 9.5 23.5% 6.2 49.9%
Off-farm AFS 4.4 11.1% 0.9 6.9%
Processing (B) 1.3 3.3% 0.5 1.9%
Trade & transport (C) 2.3 5.7% 0.2 3.9%
Food services (D) 0.6 1.5% 0.1 0.8%
Input supply (E) 0.2 0.5% 0.03 0.3%
Rest of the economy 25.9 65.0% 5.3 43.2%

3. Summary
Sudan’s agri-food system diagnostic results
AFS dominated by primary agriculture
• Off-farm component is small and is concentrated in trade that is often less productive AFS activities
AFS also dominated by domestic-market-oriented value chains
• Understanding dietary change is crucial
Trade-offs exist between growth and job effects in value chain promotion
• Pulses value chain is most effective in growth but not in jobs
• Other cereals and oilseeds value chains are more effective in jobs while less effective in growth
• Livestock value chains have positive but relatively modest effects both on growth and jobs

4. Value Chains2019 | Contributions & Trade Orientation
• Decomposes the AFS across 12 broad value chain
groups
• Classify the 12 value chains based on trade
orientation
• Exportables = export-output ratio larger than AFS
average (>4.4%) and larger than import-demand ratio
• Importables = import-demand ratio larger than AFS
average (>5.2%)
• Less tradables = import-to-demand and export-to-
output ratios below AFS average
• Sudan estimates indicate that:
• Less tradables dominate AFS GDP and have relatively
smaller off-farm components than tradable value chains
• Exportables have a slightly larger off-farm component
than on-farm GDP share
• Importables account for a large share of off-farm GDP
• Promoting import substitution could be effective at
driving agric. transformation in Sudan (i.e., expanding off-
farm value added and jobs in the agri-food system)
Share of total GDP (%) Exports /
output
(%)
Imports /
demand
(%)
Total
AFS
Primary
agric.
Off-farm
AFS
Exportables 11.3 11.1 11.6 18.7 5.9
Oilseeds 10.7 10.4 11.4 18.7 5.9
Cotton 0.5 0.7 0.2 65.7
Importables 9.9 6.9 16.4 2.7 21.7
Other cereals 2.6 1.4 5.3 0.8 18.9
Pulses 1.2 0.9 1.8 3.4 12.2
Other crops 4.2 3.5 5.7 0.1 29.9
Forestry 1.8 1.1 3.3 15.7 15.1
Less tradables 78.3 82.8 68.7 1.9 1.9
Sorghum 7.8 6.2 11.1 1.3 1.0
Root crops 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0
Vegetables 4.4 5.1 2.7 0.9 1.1
Fruits 7.5 10.0 2.3 0.2 0.8
Livestock 55.9 58.9 49.3 2.4 1.9
Fish 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.2
Breakdown of Sudan’s agri-food system (2019)

5. Future Drivers2019+ | Modeling Future Value Chain Growth
• Uses IFPRI’s RIAPA model to analyze different sources of the future AFS growth
• Expand production in different value chains
• Same overall growth in agric. GDP (1% per year)
• Increase on-farm productivity in targeted value chain
• Track spillover effects to other sectors and households
• Range of outcomes
• GDP (Total and AFS GDP)
• Jobs (Total and AFS employment)

6. Growth (total and AFS GDP) and Jobs (total and AFS employment) Scores
Future Drivers2019+ | Identifying Promising Value Chains
GDP Total employment AgEMP+
AgGDP+
5.60
1.94
1.94
1.67
1.78
1.36
1.52
1.18
1.07
0.96
0.40
Pulses
Other
cereals
Sorghum
Fish
Other crops
Vegetables
Root crops
Oilseeds
Livestock
Fruits
Cotton
5.65
2.34
1.80
1.61
1.53
1.37
1.34
1.18
1.12
1.07
0.70
Pulses
Other
cereals
Sorghum
Fish
Other crops
Vegetables
Root crops
Oilseeds
Livestock
Fruits
Cotton
-0.21
0.20
-0.36
-0.73
0.45
-0.20
-0.22
0.19
0.08
0.02
0.30
Pulses
Other cereals
Sorghum
Fish
Other crops
Vegetables
Root crops
Oilseeds
Livestock
Fruits
Cotton
Trade-offs exist in value chains
Pulses value chain is most effective in growth but
not in jobs
• One $billion growth in pulse value-added
leads to $5.65 billion increase in AgGDP+
(i.e., additional $4.65 billion outside the
pulses value chain)
• 210 thousand jobs created outside AFS,
but 210 thousand jobs lost within AFS
Other cereals and oilseeds value chains create jobs
both within and outside AFS
• One $billion growth in other cereals
value-added leads to 200 thousand new
jobs in AFS and 240 thousand new jobs
in the whole economy (i.e., 40 thousand
outside AFS)
• It leads to $1.34 billion additional AFS
GDP outside its value chain (the second
most effective VC in growth)
Livestock value chain has positive but modest
effect both on growth and jobs
• Additional $120 million AFS GDP outside
livestock value chain
• 110 thousand new jobs in the economy
0.21
0.24
-0.11
-0.43
0.86
-0.10
-0.10
0.30
0.11
0.01
0.17
Pulses
Other cereals
Sorghum
Fish
Other crops
Vegetables
Root crops
Oilseeds
Livestock
Fruits
Cotton
• Changes in GDP measured in $billion and employment in million persons
• Changes in GDP and employment resulted from one $billion increase in each value chain’s
value-added led by its productivity growth

7. Summary and Future Plan
Sudan’s agri-food system diagnostic results
AFS dominated by primary agriculture
• Off-farm component is small and is concentrated in trade that is often less productive AFS activities
AFS also dominated by domestic-market-oriented value chains
• Understanding dietary change is crucial
Trade-offs exist between growth and job effects in value chain promotion
• Pulses value chain is most effective in growth but not in jobs
• Other cereals and oilseeds value chains are more effective in jobs while less effective in growth
• Livestock value chains have positive but relatively modest effects both on growth and jobs
Upcoming plan to bring in poverty, huger, and diet quality indicators in assessing impacts of different value
chains
• Work in process to develop the micro component of RIAPA model based on household data (necessary for developing
poverty, hunger and diet quality indicators)
• Work in process in prioritizing value chains (using an approach to allow different outcome indicators comparable)