Mohamed Zakaria at Egypt NPS Seminar - 22-5-2023

1. D Y N A M I C S O F W H E A T A N D
F E R T I L I Z E R T R A D E
“ P O L I C Y I M P L I C A T I O N S & L E A R N E D L E S S O N S ”
F O O D P R I C E S , D E V A L U A T I O N ,
F O O D S U B S I D I E S A N D T H E I R I M P L I C A T I O N S
F O R E G Y P T ’ S E C O N O M Y A N D H O U S E H O L D S ”
M A Y 2 2 , 2 0 2 3
P R E S E N T E D B Y :
D R . M O H A M E D Z A K A R I A
A G R I C U L T U R E E C O N O M I C S R E S E A R C H I N S T I T U T E
A R C , M I N I S T R Y O F A G R I C U L T U R E & L A N D R E C L A M A T I O N

2. D Y N A M I C S O F W H E A T A N D
F E R T I L I Z E R T R A D E
( P O L I C Y I M P L I C A T I O N S & L E A R N E D L E S S O N S )

3. OBJECTIVE
To reflect the policy implications of wheat
crops in Egypt with respect of all factors
affecting
the food security including fertilizer factor.

4. AGRICULTURE SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY 2030
VISION
Inclusive economic and social development based on fast,
sustainable and comprehensive growth of agricultural sector
within the framework of integrated rural development to
help, in particular, marginalized groups and alleviate rural
poverty”.

5. WHEAT CURRENT SITUATION &
FORECASTING OF SELF-SUFFICIENCY
2022: 51%
2023: 53%
2025: 58-60%
2030: 68-70%

6. HORIZONTAL EXPANSION
(GREAT NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL PROJECTS)
The Egyptian Rural Project (1.5 million feddans/acrs)
The National Agricultural Expansion Project in Sinai (about half a million
feddans/acrs)
New Delta project (about half a million acres, subject to increase to one million
and 2.2 million feddans/acrs)
Toshka project (about 650 thousand feddans/acrs).

7. VERTICAL EXPANSION & SUPPORTIVE SERVICES
Special applied researches programs for new and high yield varieties
compatible with the climate changes and available resources while taking into
consideration the tremendous increase in population.
Developing the extension services with respect of the international best
practices and digitalization trend .
Encourage new cultivation techniques on TERRACES.
More silos and developing the current earthen agri. barns (to reduce losses).

8. THE SITUATION OF WHEAT CULTIVATED AREA &
PRODUCTION
(2021-2022/2023)
Production
Av. Productivity
(Ardab/Feddan)
Area
(Feddan)
Season
Ton
Ardab
9623176
64137916
18.77
3417044
2021/2022
9310673
62071152
19.5
3183136
2022/2023

9. FERTILIZERS
Current Status of Fertilizers (2022/2023)
Type of Fertilizer Production
(M/Ton)
Exporting
(M/Ton)
Importing
(M/Ton)
Consumption
(M/Ton)
1 Nitrogen (NO3-NH4) 7.2 2.8 - 4.4
2 Phosphate 3.3 .1 - 3.2
3 Potassium .4 - .5 .9

10. POLICY IMPLICATIONS & LEARNED LESSONS
• Guarantee Price:
Increased from 875 EGP/Ardab in 2021/22 to 1500 EGP Ardab 2022/ 23 Increased by
72%
• Small Farmers: Avoid the compulsory supply of wheat from small farmers (less than one
feddan 70% equal to 15% of the total cultivated area)
• Demonstration Plots:
Increasing the demonstration plots from 3500 into 7000 demonstration plots. Increased by
100%
• Methods of Cultivation: More cultivated techniques by using farming on TERRACES
• Storage Areas: increasing the No. of silos and develop the current earthen barns (showna)
• Varieties: Well distributed of more than 30 high yield varieties to cover entire nation
with respect of different types of physical environment.
• Fertilizer: The availability of Fertilizer to more than 85% of the farmers with a 50%
lower price range compared to the open market.

11. CONCLUSION
• Applying the same approach in terms of guarantee prices, wheat supply,
demonstration plots, using various high yield varieties and having more silos.
• Encouraging farmers by following the cultivation on TERRACES for efficient water
management and increasing productivity.
• Enhancing the cooperation with the African Countries with respect to the countries who
do have Egyptian Model Farms.
• Diversifying the countries that are exporting wheat to Egypt.
• Encouraging youth and small investors in the newly reclaimed areas to cultivate wheat
with a bonus of supplementary activities (cash activities).

12. THANKS