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Oliver Kirui - Sudan Rural Development Domains
1. Sudan Rural Development Domains
Oliver K. Kirui, Timothy S. Thomas & Kedir J. Mekamu
October 10th, 2022.
Understanding Geographical Context of Smallholder
Development Options
Funded by: Hosted by:
2. Objectives and approach
• Goal: To define rural development domains for Sudan – i.e., spatial
characterization of Sudan development conditions.
• Objective: To provide guidance for meaningful geographic targeting of
investment priorities and policy measures.
• Approach: We apply spatially explicit explanatory data and disaggregated
objective data at state level (18 units of observation)(Chamberlin et al. 2006).
• Output: (identification of) geographical locations sharing broadly similar rural
development constraints and opportunities.
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3. Rationale
• Smallholder farmers’ choices are strongly conditioned by the geographic
conditions in which they live.
• This should guide and shape the rural development strategy for both policy
makers and development partners.
• E.g., policy discussions in Sudan are frequently defined by different geographical conditions of
moisture availability: Rainfed vs. Irrigated.
• These conditions are seen as important criteria for determining the nature, extent
& priority of development interventions for different parts of the country.
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4. What’s new?
• Considerable evidence shows that other geographical factors also have
important implications for rural development options.
• We use agroecology, access to markets, and conflict to define development
domains for Sudan.
• A move away from subjective mapping of factors of theorized importance
to a more rigorous definition of dev. domains based on quantitative data on
smallholder livelihood strategies.
• We calibrate our definition for domains to maximize their explanatory power across a
range of livelihood strategies.
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5. Current orientation:
The “3 Sudans”
• Current Geographical heterogeneity in
strategic planning documents
(e.g., the SUDNAIP (2016-2020),
Sudan PRSP (2021-2023)) uses a
relatively simple characterization).
• The “3 Sudans” are: Irrigated,
Mechanized Rainfed,
Traditional Rainfed.
• These areas are usually mapped
as a superset of the 5 major AEZ
defined for Sudan.
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8. Current orientation:
The “3 Sudans”
• Current Geographical heterogeneity in
strategic planning documents
(e.g., the SUDNAIP (2016-2020),
Sudan PRSP (2021-2023)) uses a
relatively simple characterization).
• The “3 Sudans” are: Irrigated,
Mechanized Rainfed,
Traditional Rainfed.
• These areas are usually mapped
as a superset of the 5 major AEZ
defined for Sudan.
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10. Seasonal mean daily max temp., warmest month, (0C), mean 1985-2015
December to February March to May
June to August September to November
Source: Princeton Global Forcings
11. Source: Authors, using PGF
Statistically significant change in annual rainfall (mm) 1975-2015
12. Travel time to urban
areas of various sizes
Urban areas provide places to:
• To purchase agricultural inputs
• Sell excess production;
• Off-season and supplemental
employment;
• Interact with various people who
can providing information and
other services – enhance
productivity and increase profits
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14. Conflict and Insecurity
Uppsala conflict index
• The effects of incidence of
violent shocks, and presence
of non-state armed actors:
decreased agric. production
through different channels:
• Decline in agric. revenues
• Reduced investments
• Increase in production costs
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2012 2015
2020
15. Poverty and distance to Khartoum
• There seems to be a strong correlation between poverty and distance from
Khartoum. More assessments on-going to identify if this caused by:
• Strict economic issues – the importance of transport costs for goods and services to
and from the capital;
• Political-economic reasons – e.g., if political leaders chose to make investments that
favor the population in and around the city.
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16. Domain Number of regions
(e.g. #states)
Area
(Sq. KM)
Population
affected
Highly accessible, reliable rainfall, low violence
Highly accessible, reliable rainfall, medium violence
Highly accessible, reliable rainfall, high violence
Highly accessible, irrigated, low violence
Highly accessible, irrigated, medium violence
Highly accessible, irrigated, high violence
Highly accessible, drought prone, low violence
Highly accessible, drought prone, medium violence
Highly accessible, drought prone, high violence
Medium, , reliable rainfall, low violence
…
….
Low accessible, drought prone, high violence
Interactions of the various variables
17. Preliminary Conclusions
• Sudan is experiencing uneven conditions in: rainfall (water accessibility)
market accessibility, conflict occurrence.
• Development domains capture some important geographical factors
influencing smallholder livelihood options and rural economic outcomes .
• Different priorities for different domains (Access to high yielding inputs (seeds and fertilizers),
Water harvesting and small-scale irrigation, Humanitarian assistance and peace building efforts).
• Consideration for additional classes of variables that would identify areas
for livestock production.
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Notas del editor
And – also to understand limitations on the level of development that is possible at each location within a domain.
