Impact of climate change on agriculture and food A Presentation to NGO By Mr Allah Dad Khan Former DG Agriculture Extension KP Province Pakistan

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Impact of Climate Change on
Agriculture and Food Security
Allah Dad Khan
Ex-D.G Agri. Extension
on 18th April 2017 at PFI

3. Environmental Issues
1. Global warming
2. Climate change
3. Continuous Floods (2010, 2012, 2013)
4. Occurrence of extreme weather events
5. Drought
6. Increasing Insect/pest infestation

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7. Climate system
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8. Pakistan Agricultural Sector –
Key Statistics
Contribution to GDP 21.4%
Labor Force Employment 45.0%
Avera ge Growth during last 6 years 3.7%
Contribution of different Sub-Sectors in Agriculture’s GDP
1. Crops (Wheat, Rice, Cotton, S. cane) 32%
2. Livestock 55%
3. Fisheries 4.0%
4. Forestry 2.0%
5. Others 7.0%
Share in Export Earnings (Raw/Processed)
1. Cotton + Cotton Based Products 64.7%
2. Fruits, Rice, Fish, Leather 18.2%
3. Others 17.1%
(Govt. of Pakistan, 2016)

9. Climatic Classification of
Pakistan
1. Arid, semi arid, sub humid and humid
2. 2/3 of the area of Pakistan lies under arid
climate
3. Light brown and dark brown spots
indicating aridity in the country

10. Climate of Pakistan
O Subtropical arid zone to semi-arid climate
1. June is the hottest month (48°C) in the plains
2. July in the mountainous areas, with temperatures over
38°C,
3. The mean monthly minimum temp is only 4°C in
December/January
4. Average annual precipitation is estimated at 494 mm.
5. Maximum rainfall is1500 mm in the north
6. Most of the rainfall in Pakistan originates from summer
monsoons

12. Climate Change links between Agriculture and
Food Security
1. Climate change is generated by emissions of greenhouse gases that in turn
are largely dependent on fossil energy use (mainly coal and oil) and by
methane and nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture;
2.Food production, distribution and consumption depend strongly on fossil fuel
energy consumption; high oil prices affect costs of production, processing,
transport, conservation; at the same time,agriculture’s important role in
greenhouse gas (GHG) production is increasing as rising incomes drive up
demand for meat proteins;
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13. Climate change links between Agriculture and
Food Security contd
3. Climate change hits agricultural productivity directly
through drought, floods, pests, diseases and catastrophic
events, as well as by temperature changes that affect plant
productivity;
4. In order to anticipate the foresighted peak in oil
reserves, many governments are subsidizing the
production and trade of biofuels, so contributing to
increased food prices;
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14. Climate change links between Agriculture and
Food Security contd
5.In order to diversify financial assets, investors are turning
their attention to agricultural commodities, amplifying price
increases;
6.In order to safeguard their own domestic food security,
countries with high populations and/or low agricultural
potential are competing with small farmers in other
countries for land and water by buying or contracting large
tracts of land.
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Factors related to climate change
a) Indiscriminate use of natural resources
b) Global warming and meteorological
observatories
c) Excessive and unplanned urbanization
d) Unplanned industrial growth
e) Imbalanced use of agricultural inputs and
extreme farming
f) Population influx / pressure

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Factors related to climate change
a) Effect of industrial pollution son
marine life
h) Flood , Drought and other natural
disasters
i) Land erosion land sliding
ii) Pollution of rivers, streams by different means
iii) Waste water and waste crops residues
iv) Wastes of marbles specially in Warsak
Peshawar Jehangira Swabi

17. Changes in Human and Natural Drivers of
climate Changes
1.„CO2 concentrations have increased from 280 ppm (since 1750) to
368 ppm in 2000 (31.4%) to 379 in 2005 (35.4% rise) and 396.18 ppm in
April 2012
2. CH4 concentrations have increased from a pre-industrial value of
about 715 ppb to 1732 ppb in early 1990s (142% rise) and is 1774ppb in
2005 (148% rise). The rise since 1990s is only 2.4%.
3.N2O concentrations have increased from a pre-industrial value of
about 270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005 (18% rise). The growth rate has about
270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005 (18% rise). The growth rate has been
approximately constant since 1980s. More than a third of all N2O
emissions are anthropogenic and are primarily due to agriculture
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18. Changes in Human and Natural Drivers of
climate Changes contd
Temperature
1.11 of the last 12 years (1995-2006) except 1996 rank
among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental
record of global surface temperature (since 1850).
2. Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have
been observed over the last 50 years. Cold days, cold
nights and frost have become less frequent, while hot
days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more
frequent
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19. Impact of Climate
Changes
On Agriculture
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20. Why is Agriculture vulnerable to Climate Change
1. Highly diverse nature
2. Highly rainfall dependency( 23rd area rain
dependent)
3. Inadequate infrastructure facilities for supply
of quality inputs.
4. Rapid degradation of soil and loss of soil
fertility and nutrient level.
5. Poor resource base of the farmers
6. Poor technology penetration .
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22. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
1.„Fourteen crops were considered for impact assessment (at
0.3ºC per decade). All the selected crops were found to be
suffering due to heat stress.
2. significant increase in growing degree days reduces the
growing season length for the crop.
3. 8% and 15% increase in GDD in 2020 and 2050.„With rainfall
decreases by 6%, net irrigation water requirements could
increase by 29%.
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23. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
contd
4.„Impacts on the production of food will affect food supply at
the global and local levels. Globally, higher yields in temperate
regions could offset lower yields in tropical regions.
5. Climate change will affect human health through variables
such as changes in temperature, exposure to natural disasters,
access to food and air quality.
6. Changes induced by climate change are likely to result in
species range shifts and changes in tree productivity, adding
further stress to forest ecosystems.
7. Impacts on all forms of agricultural production will affect
livelihoods and access to food. Producer groups that are less
able to deal with climate change, such as the rural poor in
developing countries, risk having their safety and welfare
compromised.
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24. Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture
contd
8. Changes induced by climate change are likely to result in
species range shifts and changes in tree productivity, adding
further stress to forest ecosystems.
9. Impacts on all forms of agricultural production will affect
livelihoods and access to food. Producer groups that are less
able to deal with climate change, such as the rural poor in
developing countries, risk having their safety and welfare
compromised.
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25. Impacts on Agriculture contd
10..Soils are sources of concern as well. The global
crop land availability is in decline as a result of
population growth, soil degradation, soil losses and
soil sealing, shrinking water resources, salt water
intrusion into coastal aquifers, as well as rising
temperatures that are leading to falling land
productivity.
11.Loss of agri-biodiversity is associated with a range
of causal factors, including destruction and
fragmentation of habitats and the increasing use of
land for non-agricultural purposes, emissions,
agricultural intensification, etc. (Millenium Ecosystem
Assessment, 2005)
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26. Impacts on Agriculture contd
12.Landslides tend to occur more frequently in areas with
clayey sub-soil, steep slopes, intense and abundant
precipitation and land abandonment, such as the Alpine
and the Mediterranean regions. Again this trend is
accelerated by the intensification of pasture use.
13.The contamination with pesticides in surface water,
ground water and partly in drinking water, in particular after
heavy rainfalls, is another problem area
14.Pandemic pest and diseases in animal and plant
production The movement of plant pests, animal diseases
and invasive alien aquatic organisms across physical and
political boundaries threatens food security in new ways in
a climate-changing world.
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28. Adaptation to climate change
1. Changes in Cropping Patterns
2. „Sugar beet instead of sugarcane
3. „Adjusting Cropping Pattern with Water Availability
4. „More share of cropped area under oil seed crops
5. „Improved Productivity and Production Management
6. „Farm forestry
7. New varieties , drought/ heat resistant
8. New farm management practices
9. Change in land use
10. Watershed management
11. Agri insurance
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Impact of Climate
Change on

31. What is food security
O The history of food security dates back to
the Universal Declaration of Human
Rights in 1948 in which the right to food
was recognized as a core element of
standard of living and also to the world
food crisis of 1972–1974.
O The food security concept continued
developing overtime and approximately
200 definitions and 450 indicators are now
available in the literature.
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33. Food security…
... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic
access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary
needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.
World Food Summit 1996)
…. is much more than just food production….

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35. Climate change and food security
Climate change will affect all four dimensions of food
security: food availability, food accessibility, food
utilization and food systems stability. It will have an
impact on human health, livelihood assets, food
production and distribution channels, as well as
changing purchasing power and market flows. Its
impacts will be both short term, resulting from more
frequent and more intense extreme weather events,
and long term, caused by changing temperatures
and precipitation patterns,
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36. Climate Impacts on Food Security
One of the most significant impacts of climate
change is the potential increase in food
insecurity due to changes in the productivity of
agricultural land, seasonal variability, and higher
magnitude of disasters. Climate change
interacts with the different drivers of food
insecurity to create new risks (but it can also
create opportunities) and can affect all
dimensions of food securit
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37. Climate Impacts on Food Security
1. During the last two decades, 200 million have
been lifted out of hunger and the prevalence of
chronic malnutrition in children has decreased
from 40 to 26 percent.
2. In spite of this progress, according to the World
Bank, 702 million people still live in extreme
poverty and, according to this year's report on
the State of Food Insecurity in the World (SOFI),
793 million people are undernourished
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38. Climate Impacts on Food Security contd
3.At the global level, therefore, food system
performance today depends more on climate
than it did 200 years ago; the possible impacts
of climate change on food security have tended
to be viewed with most concern in locations
where rainfed agriculture is still the primary
 source of food and income
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39. Food Security And Nutrition
 Food availability: Changes in climatic conditions have
already affected the production of some staple crops,
and future climate change threatens to exacerbate this.
Higher temperatures will have an impact on yields
while changes in rainfall could affect both crop quality
and quantity.
 Food access: Climate change could increase the
prices of major crops in some regions. For the
most vulnerable people, lower agricultural output
means lower incomes. Under these conditions, the
poorest people — who already use most of their
income on food — sacrifice additional income and
other assets to meet their nutritional requirements,
or resort to poor coping strategies.
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40. Increasing The Risk Of Hunger
 Extreme weather events
Climate change increases the frequency and intensity of
some disasters such as droughts, floods and storms. This
has an adverse impact on livelihoods and food security.
Climate-related disasters have the potential to destroy
crops, critical infrastructure, and key community assets,
therefore deteriorating livelihoods and exacerbating
poverty.
 Long-term and gradual climate risks
Sea-level will rise as a result of climate change,
affecting livelihoods in coastal areas and river deltas.
Accelerated glacial melt will also affect the quantity
and reliability of water available and change patterns
of flooding and drought
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41. Recommendat
ion
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42. Recommendation by experts
1.Protecting local food supplies, assets and livelihoods against the
effects of increasing weather variability and increased frequency and
intensity of extreme events, through:
a) general risk management;
b) management of risks specific to different ecosystems –
marine, coastal, inland water and floodplain, forest, dryland, island,
mountain, polar, cultivated;
c) research and dissemination of crop varieties and breeds
adapted to changing climatic conditions;
d) introducing tree crops to provide food, fodder and energy and
enhance cash incomes.
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43. Recommendation by experts Contd
2.Avoiding disruptions or declines in global and local food
supplies due to changes in temperature and precipitation
regimes, through:
a) more efficient agricultural water management in general;
b) more efficient management of irrigation water on rice
paddies;
c) improved management of cultivated land;
d) improved livestock management;
e) use of new, more energy-efficient technologies by agro-
industries.
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44. Recommendation by experts Contd
3.Protecting ecosystems, through provision of such environmental
services as:
a) use of degraded or marginal lands for productive
planted forests or other cellulose
b) biomass for alternative fuels;
c) Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) carbon
sink tree plantings;
d) watershed protection;
e) prevention of land degradation;
f) protection of coastal areas from cyclones and
other coastal hazards;
g) biodiversity conservation.
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46. Way Forward
 maintaining up-to-date agro meteorological data;
 developing methods and tools for assessing
extreme weather impacts and guiding
adaptation;
 agro-ecological zoning for impact modeling and
vulnerability assessment;
 land-cover mapping;
 global assessments, such as of crops and forest
resources;
 tailoring information to the perceptions and needs
of rural households and providing
 gender-sensitive guidance for adaptive livelihood
development
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47. Way Forward contd
 research and dissemination of crop varieties and
breeds adapted to changing climatic conditions;
 effective use of genetic resources;
 promotion of agroforestry, integrated farming
systems and adapted forest management
practices;
 improved infrastructure for small-scale water
capture, storage and use;
 improved soil management practices.
 Producing"more"crops"from"less"land"is"the"singl
e"most"significant"means"of"jointly"achieving"
mitigation"and"food"production"in"agriculture.
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