Impact Lab Rothamsted Research Sustainable Food Systems Challenge Event Presentation Slides

SUSTAINABLE FOOD SYSTEMS
TUESDAY, 11 JUNE 2019
#RothamstedChallenge

2
AGENDA
09:20 – Welcome to North Wyke: Khalid Mahmood, Rothamsted Research
09:25 – Introduction to Sustainable Food Systems Challenge: Tim Jones, South West Business Council
09:35 – Consumer Perspective of Food: Will Jackson, AHDB
09:55 – Sustainable Diets & Role of Livestock: Prof. Michael Lee, Rothamsted Research
10:15 – Linking Ruminant Emissions to Climate Impact, and the Sustainability of Production Systems: Dr. John Lynch, University of Oxford
10:30 – Sustainable Beef Supply Chain: Ian Wheal, Breedr
10:45 – Farmers’ Perspective of Food Sustainability: Patrick Holden, Sustainable Food Trust
11:05 – Tea & Coffee Break (Selbourne Suite)
11:30 – Group Discussions on Challenge Themes: Consumer (Michael/Will/Victor), Supply Chain (Ian/Andrew/Graham), Farmer (Patrick/Adrian/
Martin)
12:30 – Discussion Summaries
13:10 – How Can The Impact Lab Support My Idea: Robert Kathro, Impact Lab
13:15 – Growth Hub Opportunities for Agritech: David Hynd, Heart of the South West Growth Hub
13:20 – Sandwich Buffet Lunch
14:00 – Tour of CIEL New Small Animal Facility, Lab and Farm Platform
15:30 – Opportunity to discuss Impact Lab Support & Funding with Impact Lab Team
16:00 – Event Ends
SUSTAINABLE FOOD SYSTEMS CHALLENGE

3
DR. KHALID MAHMOOD
Innovation Manager, IMPACT LAB (Rothamsted Research)

Rothamsted Innovation History
Inorganic
fertilisers
Pyrethroid
Insecticides
Modern
Statistics
Phenoxy acid
herbicides
(under conditions of
wartime secrecy!)

6
B. Barn
Woburn
Rothamsted Research today
• 2 campuses - 4 sites
830 ha of field experiments
• 3 UK National Capabilities
Livestock grazing farm platform, long-term
field experiments and national insect
survey
• Specialised science facilities
GM, field phenotyping, bioimaging,
metabolomics, insectary, radars
• >500 people >35 nationalities
• ~£35m turnover
Harpenden
North Wyke

Tim Jones
Food Sustainability Challenge
Champion

9
WILL JACKSON
Beef & Lamb Strategy Director, AHDB

Meat Consumer Trends
Will Jackson – Strategy Director Beef & Lamb

Introduction
What we do
AHDB’s Retail and Consumer Insight team actively tracks, monitors and evaluates
consumer behaviour.
We use this to support growth in our industries by:
• Providing a better understanding of how consumers shop.
• Helping levy payers understand their final customers needs.
How we do this
Through analysis of online surveys, shopper
data and reviewing specialist consumer
research reports.

The consumer landscape is
changing?

UK market growth slows as consumer confidence
dips
3.8%
2.6%
2017 2018
Grocery Value Growth YOY
1.7%
1.5%
2017 2018
Foodservice Value Growth YOY
Source – Kantar Worldpanel & MCA Foodservice

Food prices are a top economic concern
Source: IGD ShopperVista Research; Base: 317 shoppers who expect to be worse off in year ahead, Jan’19..
Top personal economic concerns for the year ahead:
48%
72%
88%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Petrol Prices
Energy Bills
Food Prices

Discounters are winning not only because of price
LosingMarketShareGainingMarketShare
Source – Kantar Worldpanel Total Grocery Retailer Spend Share % | 52 w/e 28 Jan 18 - 52 w/e 27 Jan 19
+0.6%
+0.3%
+0.1%
Flat
-0.1%
-0.2%
0%

Source: ONS/Kantar Worldpanel Usage
Ageing Population
By 2027, more than a third of
the population will be over 60
Growth in 1-2 person households
1960 – Just over 40%
2017 – Stands at 63%
Structural changes are impacting the market…

…as well as behavioural changes when deciding
what to eat
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Usage

Overall consumers are looking for meal solutions
Meal variety
+
Convenience
+
Health
+
Enjoyment
=
Meal solutions

Meal variety is shifting people from tradition to global
Kantar Worldpanel Usage | Total Food | 52 w/e Aug 2018 vs Aug 2014
-2% of
occasions
+7% of
occasions
Top growing cuisines:

Convenience is no longer just about saving time but
about saving effort

Health is increasingly subjective in meaning

Despite high media attention the plant based diet is still
adopted by a minority –Important to watch ‘Flexitarian’ impact
as well
2%
Actual 0.6%
7% 8%
Source: AHDB/YouGov Consumer Tracker & Kantar Worldpanel

71% claim to eating about the same amount of red meat – but 21% also
reference cutting down. Health is the top factor, but reducing carbon
footprint is becoming more of a motivator
Base: All respondents in Meat 1 section (1023) who ate less meat than previously (228) – Feb-19
EQ7: Thinking about your consumption of red meat during the last month, have you eaten it …?
EQ8_rb2: Which, if any, of the following are reasons why your consumption of red meat has changed over the last month?
Red meat consumption reduced because:
Red meat consumption during past month
24
19% 19% 18% 21% 21% 21% 21% 24% 21% 21%
73% 74% 74% 70% 70% 72% 71% 67% 71% 71%
7% 7% 8% 9% 9% 8% 8% 8% 7% 8%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 May-18 Aug-18 Nov-18 Feb-19
… over time
8% More than previously
71% About the same
21% Less than previously
37%
19%
17%
16%
16%
I’ve changed my diet as I believe it is
healthier to eat less red meat
I want to reduce my carbon footprint
The amount of red meat I consume
varies by season
It has become more expensive
I allocate my shopping budget differently
+8 WoW

In terms of household consumption red meat has
lost to white meat longer term
0
50
100
150
200
250
Quantity of food and drink purchased for UK households (Avg g per person per week)
Beef Lamb Pork Fish Chicken
Source: Gov Family Food Survey

Beef Lamb Pork PoultrySausages/
bacon
24%
6%
56%
45%
8%
4%
4%
4%
36%
2%
Indeed chicken is still regarded as the best source of protein. Beef is seen by
consumer as a good source of protein/iron. But does score lower than Poultry.
Base: All respondents in Meat 1 section (Aug-18: 1036)
EQ17b: Which, if any, of these statements do you feel apply to each of the meat or fish options listed?
49%
43%
40%
27%
21%
11%
8%
8%
7%
4%
Good source of protein
Good source of iron
Should be eaten in
moderation
Can be fatty
Is good for you
Good source of B vitamins
Good source of vitamin D
Good source of zinc
Is not good for you
Good source of Omega 3
fatty acids
Nutrition perceptions relating to meat types – August 2018
39%
18%
33%
45%
18%
7%
6%
6%
6%
3%
39%
10%
33%
40%
18%
8%
5%
5%
11%
3%
58%
7%
14%
6%
44%
9%
7%
6%
2%
3%
27
-3 WoW
+2 WoW

Spend Volume
Source: Kantar Worldpanel 52 w/e 21st April 2019 YOY % Change
+2.2 +2.9
Beef volume are down year-on-year. With roasting and
stewing cuts heaviest. Pockets of growth for Steaks/Mince
-2.6 -2.6
-0.9 -5.7
-0.2 +1.2 Larger joints are seen as expensive
with long cooking times

Meat products are innovating to satisfy a desire for
health and versatility

AHDB press activity to counter health claims

Meeting consumer needs through innovation: Those
which focus on saving time & effort prove popular
Sous vide Marinades
Ready to cook
Partially assembled

You can even get the whole meal!
Meal kits

Key Insights
• Consumer expectations are evolving. Price is key but
consumers are wanting meal solutions to fit changing needs
• Beef needs to inspire wider dishes, covering increasingly
important world cuisines
• Increase relevance through meeting needs for convenience
and health

www.ahdb.org.uk/consumerinsight
Sign up online for the
Consumer Insight Newsletter
Thank you

35
PROFESSOR MICHAEL LEE
Head of Sustainable Agricultural Sciences, ROTHAMSTED RESEARCH

Sustainable agriculture and role of livestock in
food security
Michael Lee and Team
Head of Sustainable Agriculture Science, Rothamsted Research,
North Wyke; Chair in Sustainable Livestock Systems, Bristol
Veterinary School, University of Bristol

SOCIETY (PEOPLE)
ENVIRONMENT (PLANET)ECONOMY (PROFIT)
Food Quality
& Safety
Farmers Skills
Rural Social &
Economic Conditions
Soil Health
(Plant and Animal Health)
Food Supply
Farmers Income
Sustainable Food
Products
Soil/Water/Air
Energy
Biodiversity
Sustainable Farming Systems

Trade – offs (e.g. Beef)
Criteria Measure Units
Animal performance Daily weight gain Kg weight gain/day
Carrying capacity Animals per hectare Kg weight/ha
Nutritional quality Nutrients per hectare
(e.g. calories, protein, minerals)
Kg nutrient/ha
Nutrient and soil loss to water
Soil Health
Losses per hectare per day
SOC
Kg/ha/day
%
Greenhouse gas emissions
Sulphonation
Eutrophication
CO2 (or equivalent) per unit of animal
product
(S and P equivalents)
Kg CO2eq/kg product
(S and P equivalents)
Animal health Costs of preventive veterinary care
and treatment of diseases
Veterinary costs (£)
Animal Welfare Negative and Positive assessment Disease/EU
Behaviour /time
Biodiversity Range of wildlife and plant species Species/ha
Inputs (fertiliser, machinery, labour) Purchase cost £
Outputs (beef cattle) Sales value £

The North Wyke Farm Platform -
A globally unique facility
•A globally unique facility covering 64 ha - addressing the issues of sustainable
intensification.
•Collects key data at the field-scale to enable farm-relevant research
https://youtu.be/kB41xFgvcO0

Global Warming potential – mass based assessment
(CO2eq/kg product)

Most livestock LCA studies treat the end product (meat) as a homogenous good but...
Grass-based beef production systems produce meat that has:
• Higher omega-3 fats
• Lower omega-6:omega-3 ratios
• Higher levels of vitamin E
Species System Study
Omega-3
(mg/100 g meat)
DHA + EPA
(mg/100 g meat)
ω-6:ω-3
Beef Concentrate Warren et al. 20.3 3.4 14.4
Forage (2008a) 97.2 27.4 1.2
Chicken Intensive Givens et al. 362 17.6 5.5
Free range (2011) 214 14.7 7.6
Lamb Lowland Whittington et al. 94.0 26.4 1.2
Upland (2006) 103 31.7 1.5
Pork Intensive Enser et al.
(1996)
51.3 14.8 7.4
Accounting for nutritional quality: e.g. omega-3

Species System
Mass-based GWP
(kg CO2-eq/kg meat)
Quality-based GWP
(kg CO2-eq/g omega-3)
Quality-based GWP
(kg CO2-eq/g DHA + EPA)
Beef Concentrate 9.8 48.0 288.1
Forage 18.3 18.5 67.7
Chicken Intensive 4.4 1.2 25.1
Free range 5.1 2.4 34.7
Lamb Lowland 26.1 28.7 99.2
Upland 30.9 30.0 98.9
Pork Intensive 7.4 14.4 50.3
Accounting for nutritional quality: omega-3
McAuliffe et al. (2018) Food and Energy Security

Beef Chicken Lamb Pork
Nutrient Unit RDI Concentrate Forage Intensive Free range Lowland Upland Intensive
Protein g 50.25 23.5 23.5 26.3 26.3 20 20 18.6
MUFA g 37.5 1.13 1.63 3.70 5.44 1.30 1.07 0.85
EPA+DHA mg 250 3.4 27.4 17.6 14.7 26.4 31.7 14.8
Ca mg 700 5 5 11 11 12 12 10
Fe mg 11.75 1.6 1.6 0.7 0.7 1.4 1.4 0.4
Riboflavin mg 1.2 0.26 0.26 0.15 0.15 0.2 0.2 0.18
Folic acid µg 200 16 16 9 9 6 6 1
Vitamin B12 µg 1.5 2 2 0 0 1 1 1
Se µg 67.5 8 8 15 15 3 3 11
Zn mg 8.25 4 4 1.5 1.5 2 2 1.3
Na g 6 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.07 0.05
SFA g 25 1.14 1.50 2.43 3.69 1.34 1.21 0. 90
Accounting for nutritional quality: nutrient index (NI)
(contents per 100 g meat)
Red: nutrients to be discouraged

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Concentrate Forage Intensive Free range Lowland Upland Intensive
%RDI/100gmeat
Based on 10 encouraged nutrients - 2 discouraged
Accounting for nutritional quality: nutrient index (NI)
Average % RDI satisfied across all nutrients
(100% = all nutrients satisfied solely by this commodity)
Saarinen et al. (2017) Journal of Cleaner Production
Beef performs best

0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
kgCO2-eq/100gmeat
Mass based global warming potential
Baseline: conventional GWP (mass-based)
Chicken performs best

0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
kgCO2-eq/100gmeat
Mass-based GWP vs NI-based GWP
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
Concentrate Forage Lowland Upland Intensive Free range Intensive
Beef Lamb Chicken Pork
kgCO2-eq/1%RDI
NI based global warming potential
McAuliffe et al. (2018) Food and Energy Security Beef performs best

0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Concentrate Forage Chicken Lowland Upland Pork
Beef Lamb
ALU(m2)
Arable land use per 100 g meat
Wilkinson and Lee (2018) animal
Accounting for other metrics: arable land use (ALU)
Lamb performs best

0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Beef Lamb
ALU(m2)
Arable land use per 100 g meat
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
Beef Lamb
ALU(m2/1%RDI)
NI based arable land use
Finally: Arable land use (ALU) per NI provision
Lamb performs best

 Objective: to test the hypothesis that ruminants can provide
more nutrients for humans per ha of arable land than
monogastrics
 Case study: INRA France
 Sample: 571 agricultural land units (petites régions agricoles)
 Ruminant share: 0 – 1 based on livestock units
 NI: accounts for meat, milk and eggs
 GWP: based on life cycle assessment (LCA)
 ALU: includes displaced land outside PRA (Tichit et al., 16:45 today)
Upscaling the framework

NI per ALU
Each dot represents a PRA and their average LU/ha
Mirrors the tendency of
Aggregate data of greater NI from cattle
regions

NI per GWP
High nutrient density affects GWP distribution
Monogastric regions
improved
But ruminant regions
kept up due to high
nutrient density

NI per GWP
Extensive regions can perform very well due to low ALU
Ruminants can be better or worse
Bimodal distribution of extensive regions

0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
Beef Lamb
ALUuse(m2/1%RDI)
NI based arable land use
What is sustainability?
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
kgCO2-eq/100gmeat

Livestock of course are more than food
Livestock are part of the solution for
sustainable global food security
But great care must be given in
developing metrics when determining
their role

Soil to Nutrition
Institute Strategic Programme
Mechanistic
understanding
Targeted
interventions
Food Systems
Private and public
good
Micro-scale processes
which drive nutrient
use
Management impacts
on nutrient use
Delivering ‘fit-
for-purpose’
metrics to
benchmark and
improve nutrient
use

58
DR JOHN LYNCH
Researcher: Climate Impacts of Agriculture, UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD

Climate impacts of ruminant emissions and
the sustainability of production systems
John Lynch
john.lynch@physics.ox.ac.uk
University of Oxford
Livestock, Environment and People (LEAP)
A Wellcome Trust Our Planet, Our Health Programme

60
IAN WHEAL
Co-Founder and CEO, BREEDR

ENABLING A SUSTAINABLE LIVESTOCK SUPPLY-CHAIN
TRADE SMARTER | GROW BETTER ANIMALS

LARGE SCALE FUTURE GROWTH AND
CHALLENGES
Source: OECD, Food & Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, ESA Working Paper No. 12-03, p. 131
2017 Market Size Livestock
Sales US$ 500BN
62
Health Perception
Animal Welfare
Provenance and
Quality
Environment
Need data to engage
and contribute to the
conversation

Livestock Farming under pressure
63
• Highest welfare
• Traceability
• And High prices than many
countries
• B$@%t uncertainty

What do consumers want?
64
Breeder Stores Finishing
Processor /
Retailer
Consumer
Data Loss
Industry Impacts
Meat and Livestock
Life Cycle
• Breeding Detail
(especially dairy beef)
• Treatments
• Disease testing
• Performance
• Eating quality
• Consumer feedback
• Buying decisions
• Breeding Detail
• Treatments
• Disease testing
• Performance
• Feed
• Breeding Detail
• Treatments
• Disease testing
• Live weight gain
• Frame Information
• Carcase match to EID
• Bone out ratios
• Cut % of carcase
• Productivity Loss
• Markets spread disease
• Markets spread disease
• Slack of spec. detail with
farmers
• Provenance not true
Traceability available
• Transparency on what
consumers are eating
• Waste due to out of
spaecifcaction
?
Increases waste
Greater price
fluctuation
improvement
takes longer
Planning hard
Data feedback is the answer

Intelligent Livestock Trading
 Traceable
 Efficient
 Trusted

Paddock to plate
traceability
 Collaborate with the
supply-chain focused
 Boost productivity and
profit
 Increase actionable data
to farmers
FOR FARMERS

Paddock to plate
traceability
FOR BUYERS
 Understand metrics that
matter to consumers
 Collaborate with Farmers
to feedback desired
product
 Buy sustainably with
data, match supply to
demand

Field to Yield to Farm
Phase 1: Goals
• Test Hypothesis that through better genetic information, animal phenotypes, frame-scores
and live-weights collection we can use data to help predict yield of animals on farm.
Enabling better visibility of supply for processors, reduced waste and improved meat quality
• Test software for building integrated supply chain and greater transparency
Outputs
69
SIRE Performance major
driver of Yield and
farmer profit
High correlations of meat
yield to growth and low
environmental impact
Can measure animal
dimensions to tie to
meat yield but need
better processor
engagement

SIRE performance drives value of calves
70
15 month
performance of
Off spring by SIRE
Profit difference
base on £3.50
DW price.

Weight data utilisation
Healthy animals produce more food with
fewer resources and less emissions.
Environmental and welfare considerations
can go hand-in-hand with economics,
supporting a profitable business model.
71
Profit
WelfareEnvironment

Liveweight data utilisation
72
x
Time
Weight
3 animals, same result, different journeys

73
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Liveweight(kg)
Age (days)
s
a
b
r
c d f
g
h
i
j k l
n
m
e
q
po
By using all of the data, we can
improve our understanding of
performance
£/day = sale price ÷ s
£/ curve area = (((a + b) ÷ 2) x
days)) + (((b + c) ÷ 2) x days)) +
….. (((r + s) ÷ 2) x days))

74
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
Liveweight(kg)
Age (days)
£/day = 0.2% difference
£/curve area = 8.2% difference
Scoring correlates with:
Enteric methane: 60%
Manure methane: 50%
N₂O: 75%
Nitrogen excretion: 75%
Dry matter intake: 88%

Forecasting Supply
75
Enable farmers and processors to forecast supply
improving predictability and reducing cost of
procurement.
Genetics and farm yield metrics to reduce variance in
carcass spec

Future Independent Predictions of Meat Yield
Current
1. Frame dimension
2. Weight
3. Genetics
4. Growth rates
Potential
5. MV Condition scoring
6. Shape
7. EMA
76
Inputs
Current
1. Carcass Grade
2. Loin Length
3. EMA
4. Colour (Ph)
Potential
5. Eating quality
6. Retail Value
7. Environmental impact
Outputs
• Build profile of perfect
animal
• Provide feedback to
farmers
• Produce consistent
high quality meat
carcass
Result

Developing Trust
and Transparency

THERE MUST BE COMMERICAL SUSTAINABILITY
78
Breeder Stores Finishing
Processor /
Retailer
Consumer
Secure Data Sharing
Highly Secure
Meat and Livestock
Life Cycle
Regulatory
Smart Contact
Financial Data
Performance Data
Welfare and
Vaccination Data
Provenance (DEFRA)
• Increase farm and processor productivity
• Increase trust between parties
• Reduce transaction fees
• Reduce spread of disease
• Increase data capture
• Augment DEFRA systems with greater information for consumers
• Align with Regulation to make farmers land processor life easier
Privileged and Confidential

Step Change in Industry
79
Privileged and Confidential
Increase data feedback and security
Improve farm productivity
Build integrated predictable supply
management

TRADE
SMARTER
GROW BETTER
ANIMALS
Ian Wheal
CEO and Co-Founder
@_breedr

81
PATRICK HOLDEN
Founding Director and Chief Executive, SUSTAINABLE FOOD TRUST

Sustainable Food Systems
Rothamsted
11th June 2019

Founding Principles of Sustainable Agriculture

J R Rodale 1898
- 1971
Lady Eve Balfour 1898 - 1990
Rudolph Steiner
1861 - 1925
Influences

The Soil Association: 1988 - 2010

Impact of Organic Farming on Global Agriculture
2.2% market share

Our mission is to accelerate the transition towards
more sustainable food systems….

Our Work: Hidden Cost of UK Food

Natural capital degradation 25.7p
Biodiversity loss 10.6p
Production-related ill-health 13.4p
Diet-related disease 37.3p
Imported food 7.8p
Farm support payments 2.5p
Regulation and research 2.7p
Total £1.00
Hidden Cost of UK Food, 2017
For every £1 spent on food, another £1 is spent in hidden ways…

Our Work: Campaign for Local Abattoirs

Our Work: Sustainability Metrics
• Absence of internationally harmonized framework
• More than 100 sustainability assessment and certification tools globally
• No common language, categories, metrics or units of measure
• Time consuming, expensive, bureaucratic and confusing for all concerned

The Case For Harmonisation
Farmers
• One annual audit to monitor and benchmark the impact of their
practices against sustainability outcomes - saving time and
money
Governments and Policy Makers
• Sustainability assessments could be used to design policy incentives,
assess eligibility and monitor the impact of public purse support
Certifiers
• Data from the audit could be used to assess and communicate the
sustainability of the products they source
Citizens
• Harmonised sustainability assessment and certification would harness
consumer power to drive more sustainable practices

Our work: Influencing Policy
A Nitrogen tax

Our work: Influencing Policy
Soil carbon stewardship payments

Our work: Healthy and Sustainable Diets
6%
6%
54%
27%
7%
UK Farmland, 2017 (% of total agricultural
area)
Common rough
grazing
Temporary
grassland
Permanent
grassland
Cropland
Other

Healthy and Sustainable Diets
Contradictory messages: Are meat and dairy
good for our health?

What does the evidence say?
• Some studies have found higher levels of unprocessed red meat
consumption increases the risk of death
• However, most find no significant relationship between
unprocessed red meat consumption and mortality
• Other factors affecting results include levels of nitrites and salt
rather than the processed meat per se
• Why the confusion? Poor study design? Regional differences in
cooking/preservation methods? Livestock production methods?

• The associations between red meat consumption and disease
are far from definitively proven and causal
• Studies into impacts of a meat tax on food substitution could
not discount the possibility of a shift to more damaging
consumption patterns (e.g. more sugar, refined carbohydrates
and palm oil)
• No consideration was given to the fact that GHG emissions
and micronutrient quality vary enormously with production
system
• E.g.
• extensive grass vs. intensive grain
• organic vs. non-organic
• species-rich pasture vs ryegrass monoculture
Meat tax study limitations

• Associations between red meat and CHD,
stroke, diabetes, colorectal cancer are NOT
definitively proven or causal
• Two studies have found red meat reduces
risk of mortality when part of a balanced diet
• Chicken and fish often lumped together as
white meat
• Theoretical case that high chicken
consumption could increase dementia risk
Red Meat and Disease

CHD cases per year at the Edinburgh Royal Infirmary
0 6 14
46
500
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1925 1930 1940 1950 1975
124

1.2% of UK population = vegan in 2018
Up from 276,000 (0.46%) in 2016
250,000 people signed up for ‘Veganuary’ in 2019
compared with 168,500 in 2018
31% of British consumers have reduced their red meat consumption
over the past year for health reasons, while 25% made the
same choice for environmental reasons.
Overall meat and dairy intake has remained fairly stable, but
consumption of red and processed meat declined by an average
of nearly 30% between 2009 – 2017
The rise of Veganism

• 64% of Scots are concerned
about the impact of
veganism on Scottish
agriculture
• 55% of consumers don’t
know what is in meat-
alternative products
However….

• Cattle and sheep numbers in the UK have
fallen by more than 25% since the mid-1980s.
• Using more accurate GWP* metric, falling
sheep and cattle numbers in UK have actually
contributed to a small cooling of temperatures,
not a rise as suggested by the 6% of total UK
emissions typically reported.
*Also note carbon sequestration and storage under grassland
and hedgerows
Red Meat and Greenhouse Gas Emissions (1)

• When evaluating GHG emissions based on
nutritional value instead of mass of meat,
grass-fed beef has a similar or better GWP
compared to poultry and pork.
• If other factors (e.g. welfare, biodiversity,
river catchment management, soil erosion
and water quality) are taken into account,
grass-fed beef may compare even more
favourably.
Red Meat and Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2)

129
Veganism: Nutritionally deficient?
EAT-Lancet diet - A few key points:
Vitamin A - The EAT diet provides just 17% of retinol recommended
Vitamin D – it provides just 5% of vitamin D recommendation and some of that
provided will have come from plants and not be D3, which is the body’s
preferred form.
Vitamin K – It does not distinguish between K1 (primarily found in leafy green
vegetables) and K2 (primarily found in fermented foods and some foods of
animal origin).
Sodium – the EAT diet provides just 22% of the sodium recommendation.
Sodium is so often demonised that people forget that it is a vital nutrient.
Calcium – more seriously, the EAT diet provides just 55% of calcium
recommended.

• Chicken consumption has increased greatly
since the 1950s, with recommendations for
further increases
• Chicken and pigs fed almost exclusively on
grains and soya – production and imports of
these would have to increase, with associated
environmental issues and concerns around
giving human-edible feed to livestock
• Unhealthy omega-6 to omega-3 ratio.
• Overall, nutritionally inferior to grass-fed red
meat (e.g. less B12, Zn and EPA+DHA)
• Welfare and antibiotic use issues
Consequence: Shift to Intensive Poultry Production

• Loss of traditional family farms
• Only large-scale, intensive livestock systems would be viable – massive environmental, welfare and social issues
• Closure of small abattoirs
• Largescale conversion of pasture to deciduous woodland?
• Pasture converted to crop production?
• Increased destruction of rain forest to produce yet more soya and palm oil
Potential impact on UK livestock industry

• Intensive crop production = heavy
application of fertilisers and pesticides,
soil degradation, biodiversity loss
• LUC due to soyabean production = GHG
emissions, biodiversity loss, soil
degradation, etc.
• As primary plant source of essential
amino acid lysine, soya production must
increase if we are to shift to
monogastric and plant-based sources of
protein
• Shouldn’t these be taxed too?
Consequence: Increased Crop Production

• N fertiliser a major cause of atmospheric and aquatic
pollution.
• The European Nitrogen Assessment estimated an
environmental and health cost to the EU of €230
billion in 2011
• 3.5 times more reactive nitrogen in the ecosystem
than is sustainable
• Taxing synthetic nitrogen would increase the cost of
intensive livestock production, but have only minimal
impact on more extensive grass-based production.
• Better still would be to tax nitrogen loss via nitrogen
budgets.
Consequence: Increased Use of Nitrogen Fertiliser

• EAT Lancet recommends maximum of 100g/week red meat
(beef, lamb or pork);
• French EU study, ‘Ten Years for Agriculture’ (UK translation –
Soil Association) recommends 31g per day of beef, 5g per
day of sheep/goat, and 36g of pork, totaling 504g per week.
Reality:
• UK Beef Production: 175g per week
• UK Lamb Production: 67g per week
• UK Pork Production: 164g per week
• UK Red Meat Offal: 42.7g per week
• UK Total Red meat production: 448.7g per week
What is Healthy and Sustainable?
EAT-Lancet c/w UK Production

Aligning future diets with sustainable outputs
• Not all meat is the same in terms of its impact on the environment and human health.
• Two-thirds of our farmland is in fact under grass, most of this for sound environmental and agronomic reasons.
• Ruminants play a key role in maintaining our pastoral landscapes and soil fertility and biodiversity.
• Eating sustainably requires us to consume what the land can sustainably produce.

www.theharmonyproject.org.uk
@HarmonyOrgUK

137
SUPPLY CHAIN
Will Jackson
Professor Michael Lee
Dr Victor Kuri
Wilkins Room
GROUP DISCUSSION
11:30 – 12:30
CONSUMER FARMER
Ian Wheal
Dr Andrew Cooke
Dr Graham McAuliffe
Wilkins Room
Patrick Holden
Professor Adrian Collins
Dr Martin Blackwell
Selbourne Suite

138
ROBERT KATHRO
Programme Director, IMPACT LAB (University of Exeter)

The Impact Lab
Collaborate. Deliver. Grow.

Opportunity for growth.. . ..
But it’s also a strategic imperative….. . . to seize the opportunities
• All pervasive, ever more
affordable, powerful, computing
and communications technology
• Societal trends
• Pollution and environmental concerns
• Need to compete globally
• Need to generate growth and
wealth in the region and
nationally
Opportunity
• New products and
services
• New businesses
• New industries
• Globalisation
• Urbanisation
• De-carbonisation
• Digitisation
• Population growth

Human activities, growth, global trends
Scarce resources, pollution, energy, space limits
Agriculture/tech
Engineering
Health & Social Care
Transportation
Construction
Manufacturing
Information servicesFood & drink
Energy, Water
Competeon Core Regional Capability
Enablers
Capabilities
Environmental & Data Sciences, Design, Innovation
Sectors
Driving
Forces
Digital Technologies - HPC, Comms & Networks
Data

7 Partners delivering World Class expertise
Global network access to agritech skills and data
Rothamsted Research at North Wyke
• The North Wyke Farm Platform – A unique facility
• Team:
• Prof Michael Lee Ruminant Nutritionist, head of soil to nutrition program. Interested in Nutrient Use
Efficiency reducing losses to environment .
• Dr Paul Harris, Geospatial Data specialist, leads North Wyke Farm Platform.
• Prof Adrian Collins, Geo hydrologist, expertise in catchment level sustainability measurements
• Dr Martin Blackwell, Nutrients flow specialist, experience in soil health, Phosphorus and Eutrophication
• Dr Khalid Mahmood, Innovation lead, supporting SMEs diagnosing their R&D needs and projects
• Significant and growing body of data, knowledge and programmes
underway and completed, labs, technicians, instrumented farm….

Lead Partner University of Exeter:
• 3 full time fellows, Innovation Manager, Marketing, support staff
• Access to all the other disciplines within the University
• Applied Environmental and Data Sciences, Natural capital, Land
Atmospheric & Water Resources, Signal processing/control,
Computing, Machine learning and vision, optimisation
• Follow on collaboration after working with the Lab
Providing full time, dedicated consultancy team, data, work
space (and funding)

University of Plymouth
• 3 dedicated research fellows and an Innovation Manager
• Data visualisation
• Geosciences
• Big data analytics
• Sustainable Earth Institute
• Immersive Vision Theatre
Providing full time, dedicated consultancy team, data, work
space (and funding)

Met Office Informatics Lab
• 3 full time scientific officers
• Access to Met Office scientists and weather forecasters
• Facilitated access to Met Office data and science
• World leading development of scalable infrastructure and tooling
• Global reach and network
• Co-located with the Impact Lab
Data processing, Analytics, Innovation, Skilled Team

To enable transformation of the City
Exeter City Futures at the Lab: 2 key activities
• Build the Exeter City Data Mill
• Key activity
• A repository of data relating to City problems and opportunities
• From wide and growing range of sources
• With interfaces to aid access and use
• Enabling innovative products and services to be developed
• Full time data scientist working on building the data base and the API
• Plus the ECF team working to identify and support innovators who
wish to work with the Lab
Solutions that can be scaled nationally and internationally

Plymouth College of Art
•Knowledge Exchange Coordinator/Innovation Manager
•Fab Lab Technical Support Staff
•Marketing and Project Management support staff
•Access to academic community across wide range of creative art,
design and media research and practice.
•Digital Design, Fabrication and Manufacture; Rapid Prototyping;
Materials Knowledge; Data Visualisation.
•Close working with partners to achieve step change in inter-
institutional collaboration in the Heart of the South West and wider
region.
Strong design and innovation capabilities

Plymouth Marine Laboratory
Applying innovative marine science across industry sectors
Marine & environmental expertise (@PlymouthMarine)
• Independent, impartial provider of policy relevant scientific research, contract
services and advice on the marine environment
• Unique combination of observation, experimentation and modelling activities
• Expertise: marine science (from micro to space), water and air quality, data analytics and
visualisation, environmental modelling, socio-economics and satellite remote sensing
• Facilities include in-shore, off-shore, laboratory testing environments
• Track record through trading subsidiary PML Applications Ltd demonstrates
commercially focused and friendly operation, underpinned by experience,
expertise and scientific rigour whilst understanding business sensitivities
• 3 part-time staff on the lab team: Innovation, Marketing and Support

Conduit to deliver key results for clients
• Deep technical consultancy skills to deliver applied R&D projects
• Full time staff plus academics and scientists across partners
• Significant and growing data sets
• Innovation managers – help refine the opportunity, define a project
• Work space – Exeter, Plymouth, North Wyke (RRes)
• Grant funding
• Access to network of business support
Simplified access to capabilities, fast response, results delivered

Working with the Lab….
We are keen to work with
• Devon based SMEs with growth objectives
• Academics and scientists with commercialisation opportunities
• Larger businesses with R&D ambitions who are attracted by the
region’s Environmental Futures & Big Data capabilities
Come and talk to us
• To scope a joint project
• To enable you to grow
Collaborate. Deliver. Grow.

A special part of a (much) bigger picture
• NATIONAL PRIORITY: UK Industrial Strategy, Alan Turing Institute
Aligned with Heart of the South West Productivity Strategy and Local Industrial Strategy
• BUILDING SKILLS & INFRASTRUCTURE
Data Analytics Skills Escalator approach covering all educational levels; World-leading
development of Data Science Platforms
• IMPROVING RESEARCH AND INNOVATION
Exeter’s Institute of Data Science and AI; Potential for a New Environmental Intelligence
Accelerator and South West Institute of Technology; SW Centre for Excellence in Satellite
Applications and ESA Regional Rep
• ECOSYSTEM SUPPORTING BUSINESS
SETsquared; Exeter Science Park; Innovate UK; Exeter Velocities; FT2G; SWBC; Growth Hub….
Infrastructure; Skills; Experience; Emerging Technology … Great place to grow!

So…..
If you are a potential client
• Please do come and talk with one of us
• SME
• Academic or scientist
• Large business
And if you are part of the wider network
• Please think about who you know who would benefit from what the
lab offers
To help create lasting value and economic growth in the region

153
DAVID HYND
Programme Manager, HEART OF THE SOUTH WEST GROWTH HUB

David Hynd, Programme and Partnership Manager
www.heartofswgrowthhub.co.uk
T: 03456 047 047

Helping you navigate the maze
Growth Hubs connect you to
national & local business support
schemes, grants and advice
Making local business support
simpler & easier to access

A single point of access for businesses support
Introduce you to grants, advice, events
Extensive knowledge resources and a dedicated website
• Free, impartial business enquiry service
• Advisers on hand to talk to you
• Workshops with delivery partners
• Factsheets on business topics
• Dedicated business support website
Heart of the SW Growth Hub

“It’s so easy for us to be too
involved in the day to day
running of the business”
Tel: 03456 047 047 www.heartofswgrowthhub.co.uk
Heart of the South West Growth Hub
Accutest InternationalEco Friendly Shop
Amy Lawson with the Gold
Award from Nick Hewer at
the SW Fairtrade Awards.
Rhino Play
“The advice has provided me
with a new mind-set to drive
the business forward.”

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