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Investigation of an 
Epidemic /Outbreak 
Dr. Amandeep Kaur 
Junior Resident
Contents 
• Introduction 
 Definitions 
 Endemic vs epidemic and Outbreak vs epidemic 
 Sources of information to detect outbreaks 
 Early warning signals for an outbreak 
• Why should we investigate outbreaks? 
• Steps for investigation 
• Constraints of field outbreak investigation 
• Preparedness for Prevention and Control for Future Outbreaks
Endemic versus Epidemic 
Endemic 
• Constant presence of a disease or infectious agent at a usual level, without 
importation from outside, within a given area or population 
Epidemic 
• Unusual occurrence of the 
disease clearly in excess 
of its normal expectation 
• In a geographical location 
• At a given point of time 
20 
15 
10 
5 
0 
Endemicity 
Epidemic 
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
What’s an epidemic? 
• Unusual occurrence of disease or specific health related behaviour 
in a community or region clearly in excess of expected numbers. 
• An arbitrary limit of two standard errors from the endemic 
frequency is used to define the epidemic threshold for common 
diseases
What is an outbreak ? 
• Occurrence of more cases of disease than expected 
 in a given area 
 over a particular period of time 
 among a specific group of people 
• Occurrence of two or more Epidemiologically linked cases of a 
disease of outbreak potential 
• A single case of a new emerging disease/ eradicated disease
Outbreak and epidemic: 
A question of scale 
• Outbreaks 
 Outbreaks are usually limited to a small area 
 Outbreaks are usually within one district or few blocks 
• Epidemics 
 An epidemic covers larger geographic areas 
 Epidemics usually linked to control measures on a district/state wide 
basis 
• Use a word or the other according to whether you want to generate or 
deflect attention
Levels of response to different triggers 
Trigger Significance Levels of response 
1 Suspected /limited outbreak • Local response by health worker and 
medical officer 
2 Outbreak • Local and district response by district 
surveillance officer and rapid response 
team 
3 Confirmed outbreak • Local, district and state 
4 Wide spread epidemic 
Natural disaster 
• Local, district, state and centre 
5 Pandemic • International
Disease Trigger 1 Trigger 2 
Malaria •Single case of smear positive in an area where 
malaria was not present for a minimum of three 
months 
•Slide positivity rate doubling over last three 
months 
•Single death from clinically /microscopically 
proven malaria 
•Single falciparum case of indigenous origin in 
a free region 
•Two fold rise in malaria in 
the region over last 3 
months 
•More than five cases of 
falciparum of indigenous 
origin 
Polio Even a single case will trigger outbreak investigations 
Plague Rat fall At least 1 probable case of 
plague in community 
Jaundice More than two cases of jaundice in different houses irrespective of age in a 
village or 1000 population
Sources of information to detect outbreaks 
EVENT-BASED SURVEILLANCE: 
Rumour register : To be kept in standardized format in each 
institution 
Community informants : Private and public sector 
Media : Important source of information, not to be neglected 
CASE-BASED SURVEILLANCE: 
Review of routine data : review the data from the routine surveillance 
and check if it crosses threshold levels 
Trigger events
Investigations of an outbreak of jaundice, 
Rohtak 
Recognition of cases and reporting: 
• People recognized their own signs and symptoms ……. Reported to health 
facility 
• Local press published the reports and drew attention of civil and 
administrative authorities 
• Health workers played a marginal role 
• Private practitioners also, did not report 
• District authorities appeared on the scene quite late
Diseases requiring investigations 
• Endemic diseases with a potential of causing focal or large outbreaks, e.g. 
malaria, cholera, measles, viral hepatitis, meningococcal meningitis, etc. 
• Diseases under eradication or elimination phase; even a single case of such 
disease may be treated as an outbreak, e.g. poliomyelitis 
• Rare but internationally important diseases with high case fatality rate and 
with the potential of importation due to existence of conducive 
epidemiological conditions e.g. yellow fever, avian influenza etc. 
• Outbreaks of unknown diseases/syndromes
Early warning signals for an outbreak 
 Clustering of cases 
 Increases in cases or deaths 
 Single case of disease of epidemic potential 
 Acute febrile illness of an unknown aetiology 
 Two or more linked cases of meningitis, measles 
 Unusual isolate 
 Shifting in age distribution of cases 
 High vector density 
 Natural disasters
Deciding whether to Investigate a Possible 
Outbreak 
• Severity of illness 
• Number of cases 
• Source / mode of transmission 
• Availability of preventive & control measures 
• Availability of staff & resources 
• Public, political and legal concerns 
• Public health program considerations 
• Potential to affect others if the control measures are not taken 
• Research opportunity
WHY SHOULD WE 
INVESTIGATE OUTBREAKS?
The balance between investigation and control 
while responding to an outbreak 
Source & mode of transmission 
Known Unknown 
Causative 
agent 
Known Control +++ 
Investigate + 
Control + 
Investigate +++ 
Unknown Control +++ 
Investigate +++ 
Control + 
Investigate +++ 
CONTROL AND PREVENTION MEASURES 
• Are cases continuing to occur ? 
• Is the outbreak just about over ?
RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES 
• Newly recognized disease 
• define its natural history: 
» Agent 
» mode of transmission 
» incubation period 
» clinical spectrum 
» characterize the populations at risks 
» identify risk factors 
• Well – characterized diseases 
• assess control measures 
• assess usefulness of new epidemiology and laboratory techniques
TRAINING 
• Develop the following skills through practice and experience: 
» Diplomacy 
» Logical thinking 
» Problem solving ability 
» Quantitative skills 
» Epidemiologic know-how 
» Judgment
PUBLIC, POLITICAL or LEGAL 
CONCERNS 
• Sometimes override scientific concerns in the decision to 
conduct an investigation 
• Essential to be “responsibly responsive” even if the concern has 
little scientific basis
PROGRAM CONSIDERATIONS 
• Program Evaluation 
» identify populations overlooked 
» recognize intervention strategy failures 
» identify changes in the agent or events beyond the 
scope of the program
Importance of timely action: 
The first information report 
• Filled by the reporting unit 
• Submitted to the District Surveillance Officer as soon as the 
suspected outbreak is verified 
• Sent by the fastest route of information available 
 Telephone 
 Fax 
 E-mail
Steps for investigation
Unusual health event 
No Yes 
Is this an outbreak 
Etiology, source & 
transmission 
known? 
Does the hypothesis 
fit with the facts? 
Yes 
Yes 
No 
No 
Institute control measures 
Further investigation 
(clinical ,lab., 
epidemiological) 
Describe outbreak in 
terms of Place, time 
and Person 
Develop Hypothesis regarding 
source, transmission, aetiology 
and people at risk 
Institute control measures 
Special studies
Conducting an outbreak investigation 
in 10 steps 
• Step 1: Prepare for Field Work 
• Step 2: Establish the Existence of an Outbreak 
• Step 3: Verify the Diagnosis 
• Step 4: Define and Identify Cases 
• Step 5: Describe and Orient the Data 
• Step 6: Develop Hypotheses 
• Step 7: Evaluate Hypotheses 
• Step 8: Refine Hypotheses 
• Step 9: Implement Control and Prevention Measures 
• Step 10: Communicate Findings
Check-list for investigation and rapid 
containment of the outbreak 
1) Preparation for field 
2) Make provisional diagnosis and develop working case-definition 
3) Confirm existence of an outbreak 
4) Line-listing of cases 
5) Management of cases 
6) Rapid household/community survey for case finding 
7) Entomological and environmental investigations 
8) Laboratory investigations
Check-list for investigation and rapid 
containment of the outbreak 
9) Data analysis 
10) Institution of control measures 
11) Interim report 
12) Final report 
13) Follow-up of outbreak 
14) Testing of hypothesis 
15) Evaluation of outbreak management including investigations 
16) Documentation and sharing of lessons learnt
STEP 1: PREPARE FOR FIELD 
WORK
Preparation for Field Work 
• Investigation 
 Scientific knowledge--have it or get it! 
 Supplies, equipment 
 Assemble your team 
• Administration 
 Review local directives or plans 
• Consultation 
 Know your role 
• Sample questionnaires 
• Key community contacts 
• Laboratory containers and collection 
techniques 
• Identify Outbreak Team 
 Clinician /paediatrician 
 Epidemiologist 
 Microbiologist 
 Laboratory workers 
 Environmental health 
specialists 
 Local health department 
 Other state agencies
Preparation for Field Work 
• Before leaving for the field, the team leader(or members) should ensure 
the following: 
 Verify rumours and collect preliminary information about the 
episode from the State or Central Health Authorities working in the 
affected area over telephone or through e-mail. 
 Make necessary technical, administrative and logistics arrangements 
 As per the preliminary information, prepare an “Outbreak 
Management Kit”. 
 Brief members of RRT on purpose and their roles, responsibilities 
and methods of self protection during outbreak investigation
STEP 2: ESTABLISH THE 
EXISTENCE OF AN OUTBREAK
Make provisional diagnosis and develop 
working case-definition 
• Provisional clinical diagnosis : by examining (including history taking 
and review of case records) a few current reported cases / recovered cases 
• On the basis of clinical profile and case records, develop a “working case-definition” 
which may specify area, population affected and duration of 
episode 
• To help in establishing the diagnosis, collect adequate number of 
appropriate clinical samples of current/ recovered cases and their 
contacts. Record the details on “Laboratory Form”
Case-definition 
• A standard set of criteria for deciding whether, in this investigation, a 
person should be classified as having the disease or health condition 
under study. 
• A case definition usually includes four components: 
• clinical information about the disease, 
• characteristics about the people who are affected, 
• information about the location or place, and 
• a specification of time during which the outbreak occurred
EXAMPLE: CASE DEFINITION 
OUTBREAK OF S. TYPHI JURA, M-J, 1997 
CONFIRMED 
Clinical 
• Diarrhoea (>2 liquid stools/ day) 
or 
• Fever >38°C (+one day) 
Place & person 
• resident in Jura or neighbourhood 
Time 
• Since 12 May 1997 
Biological 
• Identification of S . Typhimurium 
PROBABLE 
Clinical 
• Diarrhoea (>2 liquid stools/ day) 
or 
• Fever >38°C (+one day) 
Place & person 
• resident in Jura or neighbourhood 
Time 
• Since 12 May 1997 
Biological 
• None, but contact with confirmed case
Investigations of an outbreak of jaundice, 
Rohtak 
Confirmation of diagnosis 
Standard case definition applied: 
• Acute febrile illness of short duration, (fever ) with malaise, anorexia, 
followed by jaundice, hepatomegaly, and abdominal tenderness in right 
upper quadrant, increase in ALT >2.5 times and serum bilirubin >2mg%. 
• Limited number of blood samples drawn and tested in laboratory of 
medical college, Rohtak to confirm the diagnosis 
• Serological tests done through National Institute of Communicable 
Diseases indicated HEV outbreak
Confirm existence of an outbreak 
• Review clinical and laboratory records of the current and recovered cases 
• Epidemiological linkages of suspected cases of “similar in nature” 
• Compare the current situation (data) with the available data of the 
corresponding period of past 2-3 years 
 For a notifiable disease: health department surveillance records. 
 For other diseases and conditions: find data from local sources such 
as hospital discharge records, death (mortality) records, and cancer or 
birth defect registries. 
 If local data are not available: make estimates using data from 
neighbouring states or national data
Confirm existence of an outbreak 
Caution! 
• Seasonal variations 
• Notification artefacts 
• Diagnostic bias (new technique) 
• Diagnostic errors (pseudo-outbreaks)
What could account for the increase 
in cases? 
Real increase 
• Increase in population size 
• Changes in population 
characteristics– due to 
population movement e.g., 
harvesting season, fairs, etc. 
• Random variation 
• Outbreak 
Artificial increase 
• Changes in reporting 
procedures– increase in 
number of reporting units or 
change in case-definition etc. 
• Improvements in diagnostic 
procedures 
• Increased interest because of 
local or national awareness 
• Contamination of specimens
Outbreak confirmed  
Immediate control 
measures? 
Further 
investigation? 
- prophylaxis 
- exclusion / isolation 
- public warning 
- hygienic measures 
- aetiological agent 
- mode of transmission 
- vehicle of transmission 
- source of contamination 
- population at risk 
- exposure causing illness
further investigations warranted 
Epidemiologist 
Laboratory specialist 
Clinician 
Outbreak confirmed, 
Form Rapid 
Response Team 
Team coordinates 
field investigation
Investigations of an outbreak of jaundice, 
Rohtak 
Establish the existence of an outbreak 
People first: 
• House to house survey was done in the affected areas in May 2000 
• People interviewed ……. Confirmed that it was an unusual occurrence ….. 
Not witnessed in last ten years or so. 
• Health institutions did not provide basic epidemiological data ….. 
Because of nonexistence of surveillance system
STEP 3: VERIFY THE 
DIAGNOSIS
• Medical investigation - The physician / paediatrician clinically examines 
the available cases (in the hospital or the community) and make a 
clinical diagnosis. 
• Laboratory investigation - The microbiologist performs appropriate lab 
investigations. He advises on what samples are required, mode of 
collection and method of transportation and also to which lab it has to 
be sent. If the outbreak warrants entomological investigation should also 
be done. 
• Epidemiological investigation - The epidemiologist will look into the 
epidemiological and environmental aspects of the outbreak. The basic 
aim is to identify the source of the problem and the routes of 
transmission.
STEP 4: DEFINE AND IDENTIFY 
CASES
Line-listing of cases 
• Using “working case-definition” record name, address, age, sex, status of 
immunisation, symptoms, date of onset, recent travel history, treatment / 
hospitalization, outcome of each case or other variables as may be 
required etc. in the “line-list” format 
• Active surveillance 
• Passive surveillance
Management of cases 
• Manage cases appropriately with the help of local clinical facilities to 
prevent deaths. 
• If indicated, cases should be managed in isolation to prevent further 
transmission of infection. 
• Ensure medical logistics i.e. sufficient quantities of essential drugs and 
supplies etc.
Rapid household/community survey for 
case finding 
• Search more cases in the community by using working case-definition 
• Record information on survey formats
Laboratory investigations 
• Ensure proper collection, labelling, transportation and storage of clinical 
samples 
• Wherever rapid diagnostic tests are available, use them in the field or 
send the specimens to the concerned laboratory for testing. 
• Follow bio-safety precautions during collection and handling of 
specimens 
• Follow national and international guidelines for transportation of 
specimens.
Entomological, environmental and 
zoonotic surveys 
• Assess the type and density of vector(s) for the possibility of vector-borne 
disease outbreak 
• Collect data on: 
- Rainfall 
- Humidity 
- Temperature 
- Drinking water supply 
- Environmental sanitation 
- Man-made situations like developmental/irrigation projects etc. 
- Any health activity (intervention) taken up in recent past
Investigations of an outbreak of jaundice, 
Rohtak 
Laboratory investigations and confirmation 
• District health authorities collected water samples 
• Orthotolidine test : negative in one-third of samples 
• Coliform count in laboratory : 3 out of 5 samples were unfit due to 
unacceptable coliform count.
Investigations of an outbreak of jaundice, 
Rohtak 
Other observations 
• Poor sanitary conditions 
• Open field defecation practiced by 6.7% households 
• 30.3% did not wash their hands before eating 
• Drinking water stored in pitchers in 84% households 
• Ladle used by only 27.4% individuals
STEP 5: DESCRIBE AND 
ORIENT THE DATA
DEFINE THE POPULATION AT RISK 
• Map of the area 
• Get a detailed & current map of the area; if not available 
prepare such a map 
• Containing information concerning natural landmarks, 
roads etc 
• Dwelling units may designated by numbers 
• Counting the population 
• Denominator may be entire population or a subgroup 
• Will help in much needed attack rates in various groups & 
subgroups
Data Analysis 
• Plot “Epidemic Curve” to describe the outbreak in terms of “time” (Time-analysis) 
• Make maps and tables for describing place and person (Place and Person 
analysis) 
• Determine population at risk of infection 
• Analyze rapid household survey data and calculate population-based 
attack rates by age and sex groups 
• Formulate a hypothesis which should include characteristics of affected 
population, cause of disease, mode of transmission, incubation period, 
genesis of outbreak etc.
Characterizing by time 
• Time course of an epidemic is shown by drawing a graph of the number 
of cases by their date of onset-- epidemic curve, or "epi curve”.......gives a 
simple visual display of the outbreak's magnitude and time trend. 
• Where we are in the course of the epidemic, and helps project its future 
course. 
• If the disease and its usual incubation period is known, probable time 
period of exposure can be estimated and a questionnaire focusing on 
that time period can be developed. 
• The epidemic pattern can be interpreted—for example, whether it is an 
outbreak resulting from a common source exposure, from person-to-person 
spread, or both.
Examples of Epicurves 
Common point source Common persistent source 
6 
5 
4 
3 
2 
1 
0 
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 
10 
9 
8 
7 
6 
5 
4 
3 
2 
1 
0 
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 
12 
10 
8 
6 
4 
2 
0 
Hours Days 
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 
cases 
Common intermittent source 
Days 
Propagated source 
10 
9 
8 
7 
6 
5 
4 
3 
2 
1 
0 
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 
cases 
cases 
cases 
weeks
WEEKLY INCIDENCE OF JAUNDICE IN ROHTAK TOWN FROM 
2 
6 
8 
13 
MARCH TO SEPTEMBER, 2000 
22 
31 
42 
32 
37 
19 
12 12 
20 
18 
10 10 
24 
15 
11 
9 8 
6 
8 7 6 5 4 3 
45 
40 
35 
30 
25 
20 
15 
10 
5 
0 
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 
Cases 
March April May June July August September 
Weeks
Characterizing by place 
• Assessment of an outbreak by place provides information on the 
geographic extent of a problem and may also show clusters or patterns 
that provide clues to the identity and origins of the problem. 
• A simple and useful technique for looking at geographic patterns is to 
plot, on a "spot map" of the area, where the affected people live, work, or 
may have been exposed.
Drawing a spot map during an 
outbreak investigation 
• Rough sketch of the setting of 
an outbreak 
• One dot = One case 
• Other locations of potential 
importance are also recorded 
• Does not adjust for 
population density
Jind road 
DISTRIBUTION OF 
CASES OF VIRAL 
Rtk Rly Stn 
Vaish college 
Shivaji colon 
Janta colony 
Naya Parav Kamala nagar 
Sugar Mill Vijay Nagar 
Hissar ROAD 
JIND RLY LINE 
GOHANA ROAD 
HEPATITIS OUTBREAK IN 
ROHTAK, 2000 
Cases were distributed in 61 localities (400 cases). 
272 cases(68%) clustered in 5 localities adjacent to each other and had 
piped water supply from water works “2”. 
Most affected locality was Janata Colony with reported127 cases
Characterizing by person 
• Define such populations by personal characteristics (e.g., age, race, sex, 
or medical status) or by exposures (e.g., occupation, leisure activities, use 
of medications, tobacco, drugs). These factors are important because they 
may be related to susceptibility to the disease and to opportunities for 
exposure. 
• Age and sex are usually assessed first, because they are often the 
characteristics most strongly related to exposure and to the risk of 
disease.
Investigations of an outbreak of jaundice, 
Rohtak 
Age and sex distribution 
Sex distribution: 
• Males = 66.5% 
• Females = 34.5% 
Age distribution: 
• Children <= 14 years =22% 
• 15- 59 years age = 77% (majority) 
• > 60 years = 1% 
Most house holds reported only single case.
AR & CFR OF VIRAL HEPATITIS OUTBREAK IN 
ROHTAK, 2000 
LOCALITY Population CASES AR Death CFR 
Janata Colony 14420 127 0.88 2 1.6 
Shivaji Colony 7625 66 0.80 0 0 
Naya Parav 1856 33 1.78 1 3. 13 
Kamla Nagar 3947 21 0.64 0 0 
Vijay Nagar 4930 25 0.42 0 0 
Other Localities 120000 128 0.10 0 0 
Total 152778 400 0.33 3 0.75
Data Analysis 
Person 
Place 
Time 
Cases 
25 
20 
15 
10 
5 
0 
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 
1200 
1000 
800 
600 
400 
200 
0 
0-4 '5-14 '15-44 '45-64 '64+ 
Age Group 
Evaluate information 
Pathogen? Source? Transmission?
STEP 6: DEVELOP 
HYPOTHESIS
Hypothesis 
• Supposition made from data analysis & interpretation. 
» Characteristics of the population – 
» Specific cause ( Source, Agent ) 
» Environmental factors - 
» Expected outcome – 
» Dose response relationship – 
» Time response relationship – 
• May be generated by- 
 Considering what you know about the disease itself, or 
 Talking to few of the case patients, or 
 The descriptive epidemiology may provide useful clues that can be 
turned in to hypotheses.
STEP 7: EVALUATE 
HYPOTHESES
• Two approaches 
• 1) comparison of the hypotheses with the established facts : when your 
evidence is so strong that the hypothesis does not need to be tested. 
• 2) analytic epidemiology, which allows to test your hypotheses : when the 
cause is less clear 
» Cohort studies 
» Case-control studies
Cohort studies 
• Best technique for analyzing an outbreak in a small, well-defined 
population 
• To identify the source of the outbreak from this information, you would 
look for an item with: 
 a high attack rate among those exposedand 
 a low attack rate among those not exposed 
 most of the people who became ill should have been exposed 
• Calculate the mathematical association between exposure and illness 
called the relative risk (produced by dividing the attack rate for people 
whowere exposed by the attack rate for those whowere not exposed .)
Case-control studies 
• Where the population is not well defined 
• odds ratio—to quantify the relationship between exposure and disease. 
This method does not prove that a particular exposure caused a disease, 
but it is very helpful and effective in evaluating possible vehicles of 
disease. 
Testing statistical significance 
• The final step in testing your hypothesis is to determine how likely it is 
that your study results could have occurred by chance alone.
STEP 8: REFINE HYPOTHESES 
AND CARRY OUT ADDITIONAL 
STUDIES
• When analytic epidemiological studies do not confirm your hypotheses 
• Even when your analytic study identifies an association between an 
exposure and a disease, you often will need to refine your hypotheses. . 
Sometimes you will need to obtain more specific exposure histories or a 
more specific control group. 
• When an outbreak occurs, whether it is routine or unusual, you should 
consider what questions remain unanswered about the disease and what 
kind of study you might use in the particular setting to answer some of 
these questions.
STEP 9: IMPLEMENTING 
CONTROL AND PREVENTION 
MEASURES
Institution of control measures 
• Based on clinical, epidemiological and entomological findings, 
implement appropriate control measures to prevent further 
spread of the disease 
• Institution of control measures and management of cases should 
not be delayed pending laboratory confirmation of diagnosis
Investigations of an outbreak of jaundice, 
Rohtak 
Interventions 
• Super chlorination of water done 
• Home chlorination where ever OT test was negative 
• Boiling of water accepted by 15% of families 
• People educated to wash hands 
• Public health department identified leakage and corrected those; choked 
sewer was attended to urgently 
• Health workers , anganwadi workers played pivotal role in inter-personal 
communication
STEP 10: COMMUNICATE 
FINDINGS
Daily situation updates 
• During the period of the outbreak the nodal MO should continue to 
give daily situation updates of the outbreak to the next level. 
• This should continue even when the epidemic investigation team has 
started its investigation 
• Updates include the list of new cases, lab results received, any new 
findings, any containment measures taken etc. 
• Continues till the end of the outbreak
Interim report 
• RRT submits an interim report within one week of starting their 
investigation, response and control activities 
• The report should cover 
» verification of the outbreak, 
» total number of affected cases/ deaths, 
» time, person, place analysis, 
» management of the patients, 
» likely suspected source, 
» immediate control measures implemented, etc. 
• Also has provisional hypothesis of the causation of the outbreak and 
comments/recommendations, if any, including whether any further 
outside help is necessary.
Monitoring the situation 
• The DSO should monitor the situation on a daily basis and give 
feedback to the RRT as well as feed forward to the State. 
• The main points to monitor are: 
• The trends in the cases and deaths. 
• The containment measures that are being implemented 
• Drugs / vaccine stock 
• Logistic issues – communications, vehicles, 
• Community involvement 
• Media response 
• This should continue till the outbreak is officially declared to be over.
Declaring the outbreak over 
• Role of the district surveillance officer 
• Criteria 
 No new case during two incubation periods since onset of last 
case 
• Implies careful case search to make sure no case are 
missed
Evaluation of outbreak management 
including investigations 
• Once the outbreak is over, request the local health authority to 
evaluate following aspects: 
• Genesis of the outbreak 
• Early or late detection of outbreak 
• Preparedness for the outbreak 
• Management of the outbreak 
• Control measures undertaken and their impact
Final report 
• Within 10 days after the outbreak has ceased. 
• Comprehensive and give a complete picture of the outbreak, 
 the precipitating factors, 
 the evolution of the epidemic, 
 description of the persons affected, 
 time trends, areas affected and direction of spread of the epidemic. 
• Complete details of lab results 
• Feedback from the report should be shared with the lower levels and also 
other districts. 
• Publication in a journal 
Suggested Format for Writing Outbreak Investigation Report
Follow-up of outbreak 
• Follow-up visits are important during the declining phase of an 
outbreak to: 
• Detect last case(s) 
• Detect and treat late complications (if any) 
• Complete the documentation of the outbreak
Documentation and sharing of lessons 
learnt 
• Organize post-outbreak seminar 
• Provide feedback to State and district RRTs 
• Develop case studies on selected outbreaks for training RRT 
members
Constraints of field outbreak investigation 
• Urgency to find source and prevent cases 
• Pressure for rapid conclusion 
• Statistical power often limited 
• Media reports may bias interviewees 
• Pressures because of legal liability 
• Pressures because of financial liability 
• Delays lead to limited human or environmental samples for testing
Preparedness for Prevention and Control 
for Future Outbreaks 
• Strengthen routine surveillance system 
• Identify a nodal officer at the state and district levels 
• Constitute an inter-disciplinary Rapid Response Team (RRT) at 
state/district levels 
• Train medical and other health personnel 
• List the laboratories at regional /state/district levels 
• List the hospitals (government/private/NGO) with level and type of 
services available in the area
Preparedness for Prevention and Control 
for Future Outbreaks 
• List “high-risk” pockets in the rural / urban areas 
• Establish a rapid communication network 
• Undertake IEC activities for community participation 
• Ensure that essential supplies are available at the peripheral health 
facilities and buffer stocks are maintained at the district level 
• Set-up an inter-departmental committee, including Non-Government 
Organizations (NGOs) for inter-sectoral coordination
The reality…. 
Info: 
Outbreak 
suspected 
time 
Confirmation 
Confirm Diagnosis 
Form Outbreak 
Control Team 
Site visit 
Case definition 
Organize Data 
Descripitve 
Epidemiology 
Line list 
Recommendations 
Analytic 
Epidemiology 
Control measures 
Report 
Publication
Thank you
General framework of an outbreak 
investigation report 
1. Executive summary 
 < one page or < 300 words 
 Structure with subheadings 
2. Background 
 Territory, origin of the alert, time of occurrence, places, official staff met 
3. Methods used for the investigation 
 Epidemiological methods 
• Case definition 
• Case search methods, data collection 
• Analytical studies if any 
• Data analysis 
 Laboratory methods 
 Environmental investigations
General framework of an outbreak 
investigation report 
4. Major observations / results 
 Epidemiological results (population at risk, time, place and person characteristics) 
 laboratory diagnosis 
 Environmental investigation results 
 Current status of transmission, control measures adopted/ initiated 
5. Conclusion: Genesis of outbreak (Diagnosis, source, vehicles) 
6. Recommendations
Annexes of the report 
1. TIME: Epidemic curve 
2. PLACE: Map 
 Spot map 
 Map of incidence by area 
3. PERSON: Table of incidence by age and sex 
4. Analytical study results if any
Control measures for an outbreak 
• General measures 
 Till source and route of transmission identified 
• Specific measures, based upon the results of the investigation 
 Agent 
• Removing the source 
 Environment 
• Interrupting transmission 
 Host 
• Protection (e.g., immunization) 
• Case management
Specific outbreak control measures 
• Waterborne outbreaks 
• Access to safe drinking water 
• Sanitary disposal of human waste 
• Frequent hand washing with soap 
• Adopting safe practices in food handling 
• Vector borne outbreaks 
• Vector control 
• Personal protective measures 
• Vaccine preventable outbreaks 
• Supplies vaccines, syringes and injection equipment 
• Human resources to administer vaccine 
• Ring immunization when applicable
Common Interventions Used to 
Control an Epidemic 
• Control the source of the pathogen. Remove the source of contamination (e.g., discard 
contaminated food), remove persons from exposure (e.g., keep people from being 
exposed to mosquito bites to prevent West Nile virus encephalitis), inactivate or 
neutralize pathogen (e.g., disinfect and filter contaminated water) and/or treat 
infected persons (e.g., treat pregnant patients with AIDS to avoid transmission to the 
baby). 
• Interrupt the transmission. Sterilize or disinfect environmental sources of 
transmission (e.g., milk, water, air), control mosquito or vector transmission using 
skin repellents, improve personal sanitation (e.g., washing hands before eating). 
• Control or modify the host response to exposure. Immunize the susceptible hosts, use 
prophylactic chemotherapy, modify behaviour or use a barrier (e.g., prevent exposure 
to mosquito bites by wearing protective clothing and repellents).
3. Monitoring the situation 
• Trends in cases and deaths 
• Implementation of containment measures 
• Stocks of vaccines and drugs 
• Logistics 
 Communication 
 Vehicles 
• Community involvement 
• Media response
Managerial aspects of outbreak response 
• Logistics 
 Human resources 
 Medicines 
 Equipment and supplies 
 Vehicle and mobility 
 Communication channels 
• Information, education and communication 
• Media 
 Daily update
Reports 
• Preliminary report by the nodal medical officer (First information 
report) 
• Daily situation update 
• Interim report by the rapid response team 
• Final report
Points to remember 
1. Outbreaks cause suffering, bad publicity and cost resources 
2. Constant vigil is needed 
3. Prompt timely action limits damage 
4. Emphasis is on saving lives 
5. Don’t diagnose every case once the etiology is clear 
6. Management of linked cases does not require confirmation 
7. The development of an outbreak is followed on a daily basis 
8. Effective communication prevents rumours 
9. Use one single designated spoke person 
10. Learn lessons after the outbreak is over

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Outbreak investigation

  • 1. Investigation of an Epidemic /Outbreak Dr. Amandeep Kaur Junior Resident
  • 2. Contents • Introduction  Definitions  Endemic vs epidemic and Outbreak vs epidemic  Sources of information to detect outbreaks  Early warning signals for an outbreak • Why should we investigate outbreaks? • Steps for investigation • Constraints of field outbreak investigation • Preparedness for Prevention and Control for Future Outbreaks
  • 3. Endemic versus Epidemic Endemic • Constant presence of a disease or infectious agent at a usual level, without importation from outside, within a given area or population Epidemic • Unusual occurrence of the disease clearly in excess of its normal expectation • In a geographical location • At a given point of time 20 15 10 5 0 Endemicity Epidemic 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
  • 4. What’s an epidemic? • Unusual occurrence of disease or specific health related behaviour in a community or region clearly in excess of expected numbers. • An arbitrary limit of two standard errors from the endemic frequency is used to define the epidemic threshold for common diseases
  • 5. What is an outbreak ? • Occurrence of more cases of disease than expected  in a given area  over a particular period of time  among a specific group of people • Occurrence of two or more Epidemiologically linked cases of a disease of outbreak potential • A single case of a new emerging disease/ eradicated disease
  • 6. Outbreak and epidemic: A question of scale • Outbreaks  Outbreaks are usually limited to a small area  Outbreaks are usually within one district or few blocks • Epidemics  An epidemic covers larger geographic areas  Epidemics usually linked to control measures on a district/state wide basis • Use a word or the other according to whether you want to generate or deflect attention
  • 7. Levels of response to different triggers Trigger Significance Levels of response 1 Suspected /limited outbreak • Local response by health worker and medical officer 2 Outbreak • Local and district response by district surveillance officer and rapid response team 3 Confirmed outbreak • Local, district and state 4 Wide spread epidemic Natural disaster • Local, district, state and centre 5 Pandemic • International
  • 8. Disease Trigger 1 Trigger 2 Malaria •Single case of smear positive in an area where malaria was not present for a minimum of three months •Slide positivity rate doubling over last three months •Single death from clinically /microscopically proven malaria •Single falciparum case of indigenous origin in a free region •Two fold rise in malaria in the region over last 3 months •More than five cases of falciparum of indigenous origin Polio Even a single case will trigger outbreak investigations Plague Rat fall At least 1 probable case of plague in community Jaundice More than two cases of jaundice in different houses irrespective of age in a village or 1000 population
  • 9. Sources of information to detect outbreaks EVENT-BASED SURVEILLANCE: Rumour register : To be kept in standardized format in each institution Community informants : Private and public sector Media : Important source of information, not to be neglected CASE-BASED SURVEILLANCE: Review of routine data : review the data from the routine surveillance and check if it crosses threshold levels Trigger events
  • 10. Investigations of an outbreak of jaundice, Rohtak Recognition of cases and reporting: • People recognized their own signs and symptoms ……. Reported to health facility • Local press published the reports and drew attention of civil and administrative authorities • Health workers played a marginal role • Private practitioners also, did not report • District authorities appeared on the scene quite late
  • 11. Diseases requiring investigations • Endemic diseases with a potential of causing focal or large outbreaks, e.g. malaria, cholera, measles, viral hepatitis, meningococcal meningitis, etc. • Diseases under eradication or elimination phase; even a single case of such disease may be treated as an outbreak, e.g. poliomyelitis • Rare but internationally important diseases with high case fatality rate and with the potential of importation due to existence of conducive epidemiological conditions e.g. yellow fever, avian influenza etc. • Outbreaks of unknown diseases/syndromes
  • 12. Early warning signals for an outbreak  Clustering of cases  Increases in cases or deaths  Single case of disease of epidemic potential  Acute febrile illness of an unknown aetiology  Two or more linked cases of meningitis, measles  Unusual isolate  Shifting in age distribution of cases  High vector density  Natural disasters
  • 13. Deciding whether to Investigate a Possible Outbreak • Severity of illness • Number of cases • Source / mode of transmission • Availability of preventive & control measures • Availability of staff & resources • Public, political and legal concerns • Public health program considerations • Potential to affect others if the control measures are not taken • Research opportunity
  • 14. WHY SHOULD WE INVESTIGATE OUTBREAKS?
  • 15. The balance between investigation and control while responding to an outbreak Source & mode of transmission Known Unknown Causative agent Known Control +++ Investigate + Control + Investigate +++ Unknown Control +++ Investigate +++ Control + Investigate +++ CONTROL AND PREVENTION MEASURES • Are cases continuing to occur ? • Is the outbreak just about over ?
  • 16. RESEARCH OPPORTUNITIES • Newly recognized disease • define its natural history: » Agent » mode of transmission » incubation period » clinical spectrum » characterize the populations at risks » identify risk factors • Well – characterized diseases • assess control measures • assess usefulness of new epidemiology and laboratory techniques
  • 17. TRAINING • Develop the following skills through practice and experience: » Diplomacy » Logical thinking » Problem solving ability » Quantitative skills » Epidemiologic know-how » Judgment
  • 18. PUBLIC, POLITICAL or LEGAL CONCERNS • Sometimes override scientific concerns in the decision to conduct an investigation • Essential to be “responsibly responsive” even if the concern has little scientific basis
  • 19. PROGRAM CONSIDERATIONS • Program Evaluation » identify populations overlooked » recognize intervention strategy failures » identify changes in the agent or events beyond the scope of the program
  • 20. Importance of timely action: The first information report • Filled by the reporting unit • Submitted to the District Surveillance Officer as soon as the suspected outbreak is verified • Sent by the fastest route of information available  Telephone  Fax  E-mail
  • 22. Unusual health event No Yes Is this an outbreak Etiology, source & transmission known? Does the hypothesis fit with the facts? Yes Yes No No Institute control measures Further investigation (clinical ,lab., epidemiological) Describe outbreak in terms of Place, time and Person Develop Hypothesis regarding source, transmission, aetiology and people at risk Institute control measures Special studies
  • 23. Conducting an outbreak investigation in 10 steps • Step 1: Prepare for Field Work • Step 2: Establish the Existence of an Outbreak • Step 3: Verify the Diagnosis • Step 4: Define and Identify Cases • Step 5: Describe and Orient the Data • Step 6: Develop Hypotheses • Step 7: Evaluate Hypotheses • Step 8: Refine Hypotheses • Step 9: Implement Control and Prevention Measures • Step 10: Communicate Findings
  • 24. Check-list for investigation and rapid containment of the outbreak 1) Preparation for field 2) Make provisional diagnosis and develop working case-definition 3) Confirm existence of an outbreak 4) Line-listing of cases 5) Management of cases 6) Rapid household/community survey for case finding 7) Entomological and environmental investigations 8) Laboratory investigations
  • 25. Check-list for investigation and rapid containment of the outbreak 9) Data analysis 10) Institution of control measures 11) Interim report 12) Final report 13) Follow-up of outbreak 14) Testing of hypothesis 15) Evaluation of outbreak management including investigations 16) Documentation and sharing of lessons learnt
  • 26. STEP 1: PREPARE FOR FIELD WORK
  • 27. Preparation for Field Work • Investigation  Scientific knowledge--have it or get it!  Supplies, equipment  Assemble your team • Administration  Review local directives or plans • Consultation  Know your role • Sample questionnaires • Key community contacts • Laboratory containers and collection techniques • Identify Outbreak Team  Clinician /paediatrician  Epidemiologist  Microbiologist  Laboratory workers  Environmental health specialists  Local health department  Other state agencies
  • 28. Preparation for Field Work • Before leaving for the field, the team leader(or members) should ensure the following:  Verify rumours and collect preliminary information about the episode from the State or Central Health Authorities working in the affected area over telephone or through e-mail.  Make necessary technical, administrative and logistics arrangements  As per the preliminary information, prepare an “Outbreak Management Kit”.  Brief members of RRT on purpose and their roles, responsibilities and methods of self protection during outbreak investigation
  • 29.
  • 30.
  • 31. STEP 2: ESTABLISH THE EXISTENCE OF AN OUTBREAK
  • 32. Make provisional diagnosis and develop working case-definition • Provisional clinical diagnosis : by examining (including history taking and review of case records) a few current reported cases / recovered cases • On the basis of clinical profile and case records, develop a “working case-definition” which may specify area, population affected and duration of episode • To help in establishing the diagnosis, collect adequate number of appropriate clinical samples of current/ recovered cases and their contacts. Record the details on “Laboratory Form”
  • 33. Case-definition • A standard set of criteria for deciding whether, in this investigation, a person should be classified as having the disease or health condition under study. • A case definition usually includes four components: • clinical information about the disease, • characteristics about the people who are affected, • information about the location or place, and • a specification of time during which the outbreak occurred
  • 34. EXAMPLE: CASE DEFINITION OUTBREAK OF S. TYPHI JURA, M-J, 1997 CONFIRMED Clinical • Diarrhoea (>2 liquid stools/ day) or • Fever >38°C (+one day) Place & person • resident in Jura or neighbourhood Time • Since 12 May 1997 Biological • Identification of S . Typhimurium PROBABLE Clinical • Diarrhoea (>2 liquid stools/ day) or • Fever >38°C (+one day) Place & person • resident in Jura or neighbourhood Time • Since 12 May 1997 Biological • None, but contact with confirmed case
  • 35.
  • 36. Investigations of an outbreak of jaundice, Rohtak Confirmation of diagnosis Standard case definition applied: • Acute febrile illness of short duration, (fever ) with malaise, anorexia, followed by jaundice, hepatomegaly, and abdominal tenderness in right upper quadrant, increase in ALT >2.5 times and serum bilirubin >2mg%. • Limited number of blood samples drawn and tested in laboratory of medical college, Rohtak to confirm the diagnosis • Serological tests done through National Institute of Communicable Diseases indicated HEV outbreak
  • 37. Confirm existence of an outbreak • Review clinical and laboratory records of the current and recovered cases • Epidemiological linkages of suspected cases of “similar in nature” • Compare the current situation (data) with the available data of the corresponding period of past 2-3 years  For a notifiable disease: health department surveillance records.  For other diseases and conditions: find data from local sources such as hospital discharge records, death (mortality) records, and cancer or birth defect registries.  If local data are not available: make estimates using data from neighbouring states or national data
  • 38. Confirm existence of an outbreak Caution! • Seasonal variations • Notification artefacts • Diagnostic bias (new technique) • Diagnostic errors (pseudo-outbreaks)
  • 39. What could account for the increase in cases? Real increase • Increase in population size • Changes in population characteristics– due to population movement e.g., harvesting season, fairs, etc. • Random variation • Outbreak Artificial increase • Changes in reporting procedures– increase in number of reporting units or change in case-definition etc. • Improvements in diagnostic procedures • Increased interest because of local or national awareness • Contamination of specimens
  • 40. Outbreak confirmed  Immediate control measures? Further investigation? - prophylaxis - exclusion / isolation - public warning - hygienic measures - aetiological agent - mode of transmission - vehicle of transmission - source of contamination - population at risk - exposure causing illness
  • 41. further investigations warranted Epidemiologist Laboratory specialist Clinician Outbreak confirmed, Form Rapid Response Team Team coordinates field investigation
  • 42. Investigations of an outbreak of jaundice, Rohtak Establish the existence of an outbreak People first: • House to house survey was done in the affected areas in May 2000 • People interviewed ……. Confirmed that it was an unusual occurrence ….. Not witnessed in last ten years or so. • Health institutions did not provide basic epidemiological data ….. Because of nonexistence of surveillance system
  • 43. STEP 3: VERIFY THE DIAGNOSIS
  • 44. • Medical investigation - The physician / paediatrician clinically examines the available cases (in the hospital or the community) and make a clinical diagnosis. • Laboratory investigation - The microbiologist performs appropriate lab investigations. He advises on what samples are required, mode of collection and method of transportation and also to which lab it has to be sent. If the outbreak warrants entomological investigation should also be done. • Epidemiological investigation - The epidemiologist will look into the epidemiological and environmental aspects of the outbreak. The basic aim is to identify the source of the problem and the routes of transmission.
  • 45. STEP 4: DEFINE AND IDENTIFY CASES
  • 46. Line-listing of cases • Using “working case-definition” record name, address, age, sex, status of immunisation, symptoms, date of onset, recent travel history, treatment / hospitalization, outcome of each case or other variables as may be required etc. in the “line-list” format • Active surveillance • Passive surveillance
  • 47. Management of cases • Manage cases appropriately with the help of local clinical facilities to prevent deaths. • If indicated, cases should be managed in isolation to prevent further transmission of infection. • Ensure medical logistics i.e. sufficient quantities of essential drugs and supplies etc.
  • 48. Rapid household/community survey for case finding • Search more cases in the community by using working case-definition • Record information on survey formats
  • 49.
  • 50.
  • 51. Laboratory investigations • Ensure proper collection, labelling, transportation and storage of clinical samples • Wherever rapid diagnostic tests are available, use them in the field or send the specimens to the concerned laboratory for testing. • Follow bio-safety precautions during collection and handling of specimens • Follow national and international guidelines for transportation of specimens.
  • 52. Entomological, environmental and zoonotic surveys • Assess the type and density of vector(s) for the possibility of vector-borne disease outbreak • Collect data on: - Rainfall - Humidity - Temperature - Drinking water supply - Environmental sanitation - Man-made situations like developmental/irrigation projects etc. - Any health activity (intervention) taken up in recent past
  • 53. Investigations of an outbreak of jaundice, Rohtak Laboratory investigations and confirmation • District health authorities collected water samples • Orthotolidine test : negative in one-third of samples • Coliform count in laboratory : 3 out of 5 samples were unfit due to unacceptable coliform count.
  • 54. Investigations of an outbreak of jaundice, Rohtak Other observations • Poor sanitary conditions • Open field defecation practiced by 6.7% households • 30.3% did not wash their hands before eating • Drinking water stored in pitchers in 84% households • Ladle used by only 27.4% individuals
  • 55. STEP 5: DESCRIBE AND ORIENT THE DATA
  • 56. DEFINE THE POPULATION AT RISK • Map of the area • Get a detailed & current map of the area; if not available prepare such a map • Containing information concerning natural landmarks, roads etc • Dwelling units may designated by numbers • Counting the population • Denominator may be entire population or a subgroup • Will help in much needed attack rates in various groups & subgroups
  • 57. Data Analysis • Plot “Epidemic Curve” to describe the outbreak in terms of “time” (Time-analysis) • Make maps and tables for describing place and person (Place and Person analysis) • Determine population at risk of infection • Analyze rapid household survey data and calculate population-based attack rates by age and sex groups • Formulate a hypothesis which should include characteristics of affected population, cause of disease, mode of transmission, incubation period, genesis of outbreak etc.
  • 58. Characterizing by time • Time course of an epidemic is shown by drawing a graph of the number of cases by their date of onset-- epidemic curve, or "epi curve”.......gives a simple visual display of the outbreak's magnitude and time trend. • Where we are in the course of the epidemic, and helps project its future course. • If the disease and its usual incubation period is known, probable time period of exposure can be estimated and a questionnaire focusing on that time period can be developed. • The epidemic pattern can be interpreted—for example, whether it is an outbreak resulting from a common source exposure, from person-to-person spread, or both.
  • 59. Examples of Epicurves Common point source Common persistent source 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Hours Days 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 cases Common intermittent source Days Propagated source 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 cases cases cases weeks
  • 60. WEEKLY INCIDENCE OF JAUNDICE IN ROHTAK TOWN FROM 2 6 8 13 MARCH TO SEPTEMBER, 2000 22 31 42 32 37 19 12 12 20 18 10 10 24 15 11 9 8 6 8 7 6 5 4 3 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 Cases March April May June July August September Weeks
  • 61. Characterizing by place • Assessment of an outbreak by place provides information on the geographic extent of a problem and may also show clusters or patterns that provide clues to the identity and origins of the problem. • A simple and useful technique for looking at geographic patterns is to plot, on a "spot map" of the area, where the affected people live, work, or may have been exposed.
  • 62. Drawing a spot map during an outbreak investigation • Rough sketch of the setting of an outbreak • One dot = One case • Other locations of potential importance are also recorded • Does not adjust for population density
  • 63. Jind road DISTRIBUTION OF CASES OF VIRAL Rtk Rly Stn Vaish college Shivaji colon Janta colony Naya Parav Kamala nagar Sugar Mill Vijay Nagar Hissar ROAD JIND RLY LINE GOHANA ROAD HEPATITIS OUTBREAK IN ROHTAK, 2000 Cases were distributed in 61 localities (400 cases). 272 cases(68%) clustered in 5 localities adjacent to each other and had piped water supply from water works “2”. Most affected locality was Janata Colony with reported127 cases
  • 64. Characterizing by person • Define such populations by personal characteristics (e.g., age, race, sex, or medical status) or by exposures (e.g., occupation, leisure activities, use of medications, tobacco, drugs). These factors are important because they may be related to susceptibility to the disease and to opportunities for exposure. • Age and sex are usually assessed first, because they are often the characteristics most strongly related to exposure and to the risk of disease.
  • 65. Investigations of an outbreak of jaundice, Rohtak Age and sex distribution Sex distribution: • Males = 66.5% • Females = 34.5% Age distribution: • Children <= 14 years =22% • 15- 59 years age = 77% (majority) • > 60 years = 1% Most house holds reported only single case.
  • 66. AR & CFR OF VIRAL HEPATITIS OUTBREAK IN ROHTAK, 2000 LOCALITY Population CASES AR Death CFR Janata Colony 14420 127 0.88 2 1.6 Shivaji Colony 7625 66 0.80 0 0 Naya Parav 1856 33 1.78 1 3. 13 Kamla Nagar 3947 21 0.64 0 0 Vijay Nagar 4930 25 0.42 0 0 Other Localities 120000 128 0.10 0 0 Total 152778 400 0.33 3 0.75
  • 67. Data Analysis Person Place Time Cases 25 20 15 10 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0-4 '5-14 '15-44 '45-64 '64+ Age Group Evaluate information Pathogen? Source? Transmission?
  • 68. STEP 6: DEVELOP HYPOTHESIS
  • 69. Hypothesis • Supposition made from data analysis & interpretation. » Characteristics of the population – » Specific cause ( Source, Agent ) » Environmental factors - » Expected outcome – » Dose response relationship – » Time response relationship – • May be generated by-  Considering what you know about the disease itself, or  Talking to few of the case patients, or  The descriptive epidemiology may provide useful clues that can be turned in to hypotheses.
  • 70. STEP 7: EVALUATE HYPOTHESES
  • 71. • Two approaches • 1) comparison of the hypotheses with the established facts : when your evidence is so strong that the hypothesis does not need to be tested. • 2) analytic epidemiology, which allows to test your hypotheses : when the cause is less clear » Cohort studies » Case-control studies
  • 72. Cohort studies • Best technique for analyzing an outbreak in a small, well-defined population • To identify the source of the outbreak from this information, you would look for an item with:  a high attack rate among those exposedand  a low attack rate among those not exposed  most of the people who became ill should have been exposed • Calculate the mathematical association between exposure and illness called the relative risk (produced by dividing the attack rate for people whowere exposed by the attack rate for those whowere not exposed .)
  • 73. Case-control studies • Where the population is not well defined • odds ratio—to quantify the relationship between exposure and disease. This method does not prove that a particular exposure caused a disease, but it is very helpful and effective in evaluating possible vehicles of disease. Testing statistical significance • The final step in testing your hypothesis is to determine how likely it is that your study results could have occurred by chance alone.
  • 74. STEP 8: REFINE HYPOTHESES AND CARRY OUT ADDITIONAL STUDIES
  • 75. • When analytic epidemiological studies do not confirm your hypotheses • Even when your analytic study identifies an association between an exposure and a disease, you often will need to refine your hypotheses. . Sometimes you will need to obtain more specific exposure histories or a more specific control group. • When an outbreak occurs, whether it is routine or unusual, you should consider what questions remain unanswered about the disease and what kind of study you might use in the particular setting to answer some of these questions.
  • 76. STEP 9: IMPLEMENTING CONTROL AND PREVENTION MEASURES
  • 77. Institution of control measures • Based on clinical, epidemiological and entomological findings, implement appropriate control measures to prevent further spread of the disease • Institution of control measures and management of cases should not be delayed pending laboratory confirmation of diagnosis
  • 78. Investigations of an outbreak of jaundice, Rohtak Interventions • Super chlorination of water done • Home chlorination where ever OT test was negative • Boiling of water accepted by 15% of families • People educated to wash hands • Public health department identified leakage and corrected those; choked sewer was attended to urgently • Health workers , anganwadi workers played pivotal role in inter-personal communication
  • 80. Daily situation updates • During the period of the outbreak the nodal MO should continue to give daily situation updates of the outbreak to the next level. • This should continue even when the epidemic investigation team has started its investigation • Updates include the list of new cases, lab results received, any new findings, any containment measures taken etc. • Continues till the end of the outbreak
  • 81. Interim report • RRT submits an interim report within one week of starting their investigation, response and control activities • The report should cover » verification of the outbreak, » total number of affected cases/ deaths, » time, person, place analysis, » management of the patients, » likely suspected source, » immediate control measures implemented, etc. • Also has provisional hypothesis of the causation of the outbreak and comments/recommendations, if any, including whether any further outside help is necessary.
  • 82. Monitoring the situation • The DSO should monitor the situation on a daily basis and give feedback to the RRT as well as feed forward to the State. • The main points to monitor are: • The trends in the cases and deaths. • The containment measures that are being implemented • Drugs / vaccine stock • Logistic issues – communications, vehicles, • Community involvement • Media response • This should continue till the outbreak is officially declared to be over.
  • 83. Declaring the outbreak over • Role of the district surveillance officer • Criteria  No new case during two incubation periods since onset of last case • Implies careful case search to make sure no case are missed
  • 84. Evaluation of outbreak management including investigations • Once the outbreak is over, request the local health authority to evaluate following aspects: • Genesis of the outbreak • Early or late detection of outbreak • Preparedness for the outbreak • Management of the outbreak • Control measures undertaken and their impact
  • 85. Final report • Within 10 days after the outbreak has ceased. • Comprehensive and give a complete picture of the outbreak,  the precipitating factors,  the evolution of the epidemic,  description of the persons affected,  time trends, areas affected and direction of spread of the epidemic. • Complete details of lab results • Feedback from the report should be shared with the lower levels and also other districts. • Publication in a journal Suggested Format for Writing Outbreak Investigation Report
  • 86.
  • 87.
  • 88. Follow-up of outbreak • Follow-up visits are important during the declining phase of an outbreak to: • Detect last case(s) • Detect and treat late complications (if any) • Complete the documentation of the outbreak
  • 89. Documentation and sharing of lessons learnt • Organize post-outbreak seminar • Provide feedback to State and district RRTs • Develop case studies on selected outbreaks for training RRT members
  • 90. Constraints of field outbreak investigation • Urgency to find source and prevent cases • Pressure for rapid conclusion • Statistical power often limited • Media reports may bias interviewees • Pressures because of legal liability • Pressures because of financial liability • Delays lead to limited human or environmental samples for testing
  • 91. Preparedness for Prevention and Control for Future Outbreaks • Strengthen routine surveillance system • Identify a nodal officer at the state and district levels • Constitute an inter-disciplinary Rapid Response Team (RRT) at state/district levels • Train medical and other health personnel • List the laboratories at regional /state/district levels • List the hospitals (government/private/NGO) with level and type of services available in the area
  • 92. Preparedness for Prevention and Control for Future Outbreaks • List “high-risk” pockets in the rural / urban areas • Establish a rapid communication network • Undertake IEC activities for community participation • Ensure that essential supplies are available at the peripheral health facilities and buffer stocks are maintained at the district level • Set-up an inter-departmental committee, including Non-Government Organizations (NGOs) for inter-sectoral coordination
  • 93. The reality…. Info: Outbreak suspected time Confirmation Confirm Diagnosis Form Outbreak Control Team Site visit Case definition Organize Data Descripitve Epidemiology Line list Recommendations Analytic Epidemiology Control measures Report Publication
  • 95. General framework of an outbreak investigation report 1. Executive summary  < one page or < 300 words  Structure with subheadings 2. Background  Territory, origin of the alert, time of occurrence, places, official staff met 3. Methods used for the investigation  Epidemiological methods • Case definition • Case search methods, data collection • Analytical studies if any • Data analysis  Laboratory methods  Environmental investigations
  • 96. General framework of an outbreak investigation report 4. Major observations / results  Epidemiological results (population at risk, time, place and person characteristics)  laboratory diagnosis  Environmental investigation results  Current status of transmission, control measures adopted/ initiated 5. Conclusion: Genesis of outbreak (Diagnosis, source, vehicles) 6. Recommendations
  • 97. Annexes of the report 1. TIME: Epidemic curve 2. PLACE: Map  Spot map  Map of incidence by area 3. PERSON: Table of incidence by age and sex 4. Analytical study results if any
  • 98.
  • 99. Control measures for an outbreak • General measures  Till source and route of transmission identified • Specific measures, based upon the results of the investigation  Agent • Removing the source  Environment • Interrupting transmission  Host • Protection (e.g., immunization) • Case management
  • 100. Specific outbreak control measures • Waterborne outbreaks • Access to safe drinking water • Sanitary disposal of human waste • Frequent hand washing with soap • Adopting safe practices in food handling • Vector borne outbreaks • Vector control • Personal protective measures • Vaccine preventable outbreaks • Supplies vaccines, syringes and injection equipment • Human resources to administer vaccine • Ring immunization when applicable
  • 101. Common Interventions Used to Control an Epidemic • Control the source of the pathogen. Remove the source of contamination (e.g., discard contaminated food), remove persons from exposure (e.g., keep people from being exposed to mosquito bites to prevent West Nile virus encephalitis), inactivate or neutralize pathogen (e.g., disinfect and filter contaminated water) and/or treat infected persons (e.g., treat pregnant patients with AIDS to avoid transmission to the baby). • Interrupt the transmission. Sterilize or disinfect environmental sources of transmission (e.g., milk, water, air), control mosquito or vector transmission using skin repellents, improve personal sanitation (e.g., washing hands before eating). • Control or modify the host response to exposure. Immunize the susceptible hosts, use prophylactic chemotherapy, modify behaviour or use a barrier (e.g., prevent exposure to mosquito bites by wearing protective clothing and repellents).
  • 102. 3. Monitoring the situation • Trends in cases and deaths • Implementation of containment measures • Stocks of vaccines and drugs • Logistics  Communication  Vehicles • Community involvement • Media response
  • 103. Managerial aspects of outbreak response • Logistics  Human resources  Medicines  Equipment and supplies  Vehicle and mobility  Communication channels • Information, education and communication • Media  Daily update
  • 104. Reports • Preliminary report by the nodal medical officer (First information report) • Daily situation update • Interim report by the rapid response team • Final report
  • 105. Points to remember 1. Outbreaks cause suffering, bad publicity and cost resources 2. Constant vigil is needed 3. Prompt timely action limits damage 4. Emphasis is on saving lives 5. Don’t diagnose every case once the etiology is clear 6. Management of linked cases does not require confirmation 7. The development of an outbreak is followed on a daily basis 8. Effective communication prevents rumours 9. Use one single designated spoke person 10. Learn lessons after the outbreak is over

Notas del editor

  1. The take home message is: There is no formal difference. You are the one who decide how much importance you want to give to the event. If you are having lots of measles and none wants to help, call it a major epidemic. If it is a cluster well under controlled that the press is blowing out of proportion, call it a small outbreak
  2. WHO SHOULD RESPOND TO AN OUTBREAK At the PHC and CHC level, the MO of the concerned institution will be the nodal officer who will respond to an outbreak. At the district, the Corporation, the State and the Central level special Rapid Response Teams need to be formed whose prime responsibility is to investigate outbreaks. If an outbreak is suspected, the local health team should verify the same. Once this is done and if there is a need to investigate, the RRT should take over and do the needful.
  3. Triggers :There are triggers for each condition under surveillance, Various trigger levels may lead to local or broader response Tables in the operation manual propose standardized actions to take following various triggers. Threshold for diseases under surveillance that trigger pre-determined actions at various levels Based upon the number of cases in weekly report Trigger levels depend on: Type of disease Case fatality (Death / case ratio) Number of evolving cases Usual trend in the region CHOLERA: If a single suspect case is confirmed MEASLES: If a single suspect case is confirmed. DENGUE/ DHF/ DSS: If a suspect case is confirmed. JAPANESE ENCEPHALITIS: If a single suspect case is confirmed. VIRAL HEPATITIS: If the number of new cases exceeds the upper limit of cases seen in a previous non-epidemic period in previous years. DYSENTERY: If a single suspect case is confirmed ACUTE DIARRHOEAL DISEASES: If the number of new cases exceeds the upper limit of cases seen in a previous non-epidemic period in previous years. MALARIA: If the number of new cases exceeds the upper limit of cases seen in a previous non-epidemic period in previous years.
  4. To arrive at provisional diagnosis, “Syndromic Presentation” of some of the common epidemic-prone communicable diseases are placed at Annexures-2 to 8. Not always necessary to confirm all the cases but confirm a proportion throughout the outbreak
  5. Whatever your criteria, you must apply them consistently and without bias to all of the people included in the investigation. Ideally, your case definition should be broad enough to include most, if not all, of the actual cases, without capturing what are called "false-positive" cases (when the case definition is met, but the person actually does not have the disease in question). Recognizing the uncertainty of some diagnoses, investigators often classify cases as "confirmed," " probable," or "possible." To be classified as confirmed, a case usually must have laboratory verification. A case classified as probable usually has the typical clinical features of the disease without laboratory confirmation. A possible case usually has fewer of the typical clinical features. Early in an investigation, a loose case definition that includes confirmed, probable, and even possible cases is often used to allow investigators to capture as many cases as possible. Later on, when hypotheses have come into sharper focus, the investigator may tighten the case definition by dropping the "possible" category
  6. Some will turn out to be true outbreaks with a common cause, some will be unrelated cases of the same disease, and others will turn out to be unrelated cases of similar but unrelated diseases. Even if the outbreak is suspected from the routine surveillance data, it must be verified (lest it may be a data entry error). The fastest way to verify is to contact the MO nearest to the location of the outbreak and request him/her for confirmation. This may be done telephonically or through a special messenger. The MO should check • if there is an abnormal increase in the number of cases or • if there is a clustering of cases or • if the cases are Epidemiologically linked or • if some trigger events have occurred (see above) or • if many deaths have occurred If there is evidence of an outbreak, and if the etiology, the source and the route of transmission is known, then the specific control measures need to be immediately instituted. If however, any one of the above is unknown, then the outbreak must be investigated to identify the specific cause. The RRT should be alerted and requested to investigate the outbreak. At the same time, general control measures should be instituted.
  7. Whether or not you should investigate an apparent problem further is not strictly tied to your verifying that an epidemic exists (that is, that the observed number is greater than the number expected). As noted earlier, other factors may come into play, including, for example, the severity of the illness, the potential for spread, political considerations, public relations, and the availability of resources.
  8. The history will include questions that will identify the possible source, routes of transmission and contacts. He will also review the case management (as per the recommended protocol) and recommend suitable amendments to the therapy if required
  9. Establish a Case Definition standard set of criteria for the health condition clinical criteria (signs and symptoms) restrictions by time, place and person apply without bias NOTE: Never include the EXPOSURE or RISK FACTOR in the case definition!
  10. usually base the units of time on the incubation period of the disease (if known) and the length of time over which cases are distributed. As a rule of thumb, select a unit that is one-fourth to one-third as long as the incubation period. Thus, for an outbreak of Clostridium perfringens food poisoning (usual incubation period 10-12 hours), with cases during a period of only a few days, you could use an x-axis unit of 2 or 3 hours. Unfortunately, there will be times when you do not know the specific disease and/or its incubation period. In that circumstance, it is useful to draw several epidemic curves, using different units on the x-axes, to find one that seems to show the data best. Finally, show the pre- and post-epidemic period on your graph to illustrate the activity of the disease during those periods. Cases that stand apart (called "outliers") All outliers are worth examining carefully because if they are part of the outbreak, their unusual exposures may point directly to the source. For a disease with a human host such as hepatitis A, for instance, one of the early cases may be in a food handler who is the source of the epidemic.
  11. Sporadic occurrence continued in the month of september indicating that hepatitis has established its roots as endemic disease.
  12. If the size of the overall population varies between the areas you are comparing, a spot map, because it shows numbers of cases, can be misleading. This is a weakness of spot maps. In such instances, you should show the proportion of people affected in each area (which would also represent the rate of disease or, in the setting of an outbreak, the "attack rate").
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  14. The hypotheses should address the source of the agent, the mode (vehicle or vector) of transmission, and the exposures that caused the disease. Also, the hypotheses should be proposed in a way that can be tested.
  15. If the epidemic continues unabated then the Hypothesis would have to be reviewed. In such cases analytical studies like a case control study might have to be conducted to confirm the hypothesis. The decision to investigate further or to institute control measures are dependent on whether the source and the transmission are known or not.
  16. For example, in a large community outbreak of botulism in Illinois, investigators used three sequential case-control studies to identify the vehicle. In the first study, investigators compared exposures of case-patients and controls from the general public and implicated a restaurant. In a second study, they compared the menu items eaten by the case-patients with those eaten by healthy restaurant patrons and identified a specific menu item, a meat and cheese sandwich. In a third study, appeals were broadcast over radio to identify healthy restaurant patrons who had eaten the sandwich. It turned out that controls were less likely than case-patients to have eaten the onions that came with the sandwich. Type A Clostridium botulinum was then identified from a pan of leftover sautéed onions used only to make that particular sandwich
  17. The RRT will submit an interim report within one week of starting their investigation, response and control activities. The report should cover verification of the outbreak, total number of affected cases/ deaths, time, person, place analysis, management of the patients, likely suspected source, immediate control measures implemented, etc. The report will include reports by the physician and microbiologist, and entomologist (where applicable). The lab results received during that period, environmental factors, etc. It will also have a provisional hypothesis of the causation of the outbreak and comments/recommendations, if any, including whether any further outside help is necessary.
  18. The RRT will submit an interim report within one week of starting their investigation, response and control activities. The report should cover verification of the outbreak, total number of affected cases/ deaths, time, person, place analysis, management of the patients, likely suspected source, immediate control measures implemented, etc. The report will include reports by the physician and microbiologist, and entomologist (where applicable). The lab results received during that period, environmental factors, etc. It will also have a provisional hypothesis of the causation of the outbreak and comments/recommendations, if any, including whether any further outside help is necessary.
  19. Final report: Within 10 days after the outbreak has ceased, a final outbreak investigation report must be submitted by the local health authorities. This report must be comprehensive and give a complete picture of the multi-factorial causes of the outbreak, the precipitating factors, the evolution of the epidemic, description of the persons affected, time trends, areas affected and direction of spread of the epidemic. It should have complete details of lab results including regional lab (cross verification and strain identification), confirmation of the provisional diagnosis and other relevant information. It is important that feedback from the report is shared with the lower levels and also other districts. Publication in a journal will ensure wider circulation of the lessons learnt.