1) By 2030, India is projected to become one of the top three automotive markets in the world alongside China and the United States, with annual sales exceeding 14 million units.
2) India's strong economic growth is driving increased vehicle ownership, with per capita vehicle ownership expected to rise significantly as incomes increase.
3) Automakers see India as a key growth market, and it is expected to surpass major European markets in size within the next 5-10 years and exceed the United States market in vehicle sales by the mid-2030s.
2. The key 5s
1. Going forward, India is a key pillar of global automotive market - policy, actions and
strategies of players in India will have a fundamental impact on the global auto landscape
2. By 2015, India will exceed every major European market inc. Germany, France and UK in
4thautomotive sales - making India the largest automotive market by volume in the world
3. Over the next 20 years, India will be part of global automotive triumvirate - the global BIG 3
4. In fact, we expect the India automotive sales to exceed the US market by mid 2030s
5. The global automotive game will be pretty much decided by twin forces for China and India
1MAGNETTI MARELLI
3. India is booming – and projected to maintain the trajectory
Real GDP Growth
2005-2020
Regional: Percentage of World GDP
2004
India
2%
China
4% 4.0
China
Other
20%
Japan
12%
3.5
India
US
28%
EU
34% 3.0
2.5
2050 Estimate
Other
10%
India
17%
2.0
Thailand
US
26% 1.5 United Kingdom
Germany
China
28%
EU
15%
1.0
Japan
4%
Source: Global Insights Database, Business Week, Booz & Company analysis
2
GrowthRate(Base=2005)
MAGNETTI MARELLI
4. 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Emerging markets are transforming the economic landscape —
could the future repeat the past ?
Percent Contribution of India & China,
US, Western Europe and UK to World Economy
(1500–2050 AD)
India & ChinaIndia & China
Western Europe
(excluding UK)
US
Western Europe
(excluding UK)
UK
UK
Year
Note: UK, US and W. European countries do not include GDP from former British colonies
Source: The World Economy-Historical Statistics; Goldman Sachs BRIC Report; Booz & Company research and analysis
3
PercentageContributiontoWorldEconomy
60%
40%
20%
0%
1850 1900 1950 2000 20501500
80%
MAGNETTI MARELLI
5. An assessment of parallels with markets such as China strengthen
our belief in tomorrow
GDP Growth GDP Per Capita Growth FDI Trends – India and China
$3,000 $3,000 $90,000
$80,000
$2,500 $2,500
$70,000
$2,000 $2,000 $60,000
$50,000
$1,500 $1,500
$40,000
$1,000 $1,000 $30,000
$20,000
$500 $500
$10,000
$0 $0 $0
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 22 25 27 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
Years Since Liberalization Years Since Liberalization Years Since Liberalization
China – 1979 India – 1991
Source: Economic Intelligence Unit, Booz & Company analysis
4
In$Bn
In$
In$Mn MAGNETTI MARELLI
6. The twin pillars of the global economy, India & China, will define the
economic landscape for generations to come
GDP Trends
2005 Constant Prices ($Trillion)
Real GDP Growth
(Base = 2005)
Growth relative
to 2005$ Trillion
China
India
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
25 China
20
15
10
India
Pakistan
Russia
Germany
Japan
Japan
Germany5
Russia
Pakistan
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Source: Global Insight Database, Booz & Company analysis
5MAGNETTI MARELLI
7. Wealth is being
economy
generated via a positive structural shift in the
Shift in GDP composition by sector
(1950 to 2020E)
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30% 42%56%
20%
10%
15%
11% 8%
0%
1950 1990 2000 2007 2012 2020
Agriculture Industry Services
Source: Global Insights Database, Economic Intelligence Unit, Booz & Company analysis
6
%contributiontoGDP
30%
35%
39%
48% 49% 50%
14%
36%
38%
37%
40%
29%
22%
MAGNETTI MARELLI
8. Industry is likely to benefit from the change in consumption
pattern of an increasingly
Private Consumer Spending
1994-2015
prosperous society
Private Consumption Growth
Base - 1994
Index
100% 15
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Transport / Comm.
Food & Beverages
Recreation
Clothing & Footwear
Housing
Total Consumption
Health
Transport / Comm.
Food & Beverages
Recreation / Education
scellaneous
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 20151994 2005 2015
Note: Miscellaneous includes personal care goods and other services
Source: Central Statistics Organization (GOI), Booz & Company analysis
7
%consumptionoftotal
55%
40%
29% F
H
Tr
Mi
8%
13%
7%
16%
4%
6%
23%
15%
5%
20%3%
5%
11%
19%
3%
3%
9%6%
MAGNETTI MARELLI
9. This rise in per capita GDP will lead to higher vehicle ownership
Cars / 1000 People Versus GDP / Capita
1990 - 2013Cars / 1000 People
600
550
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Germany
China
$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000 $30,000 $35,000 $40,000 $45,000 $50,000 $55,000
GDP / Capita
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit; Booz & Company analysis
8
USA
Saturated penetration levels in
developed economies
Russia
Rising per capita income leading to
increased penetration; trend expected
India to continue given low current levels
MAGNETTI MARELLI
10. The result: India is an anchor of future growth in the auto industry
GDP Growth by Country
2010 – 2020
> 5% projected GDP growth
3.5 % - 5% projected GDP growth
< 3.5% projected GDP growth
Source: Global Insight Database, Booz & Company analysis
9MAGNETTI MARELLI
11. Automotive sales are destined to resonate with global economic
shift - India is the place to be for the global OEMs
Automotive Sales by Geography
(Passenger Vehicles, Commercial Vehicles and Two Wheelers)
2009
20201980
Market size: 60 M units
Asia & Japan: 7%
Europe: 42% NA:
41%
Market size: 205 M units
Asia & Japan: 65%
Europe: 20% NA:
15%
Shift in center of gravity
1) Includes passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles and two-wheelers
Source: Global Insight Database, March 2009; Wards Auto; Booz & Company analysis
10
Market size: 102 M units
Asia & Japan: 45%
Europe: 32%
NA: 18%
MAGNETTI MARELLI
12. India’s car market has the potential to grow up to 6+ millions units
annually by 2020
Passenger vehicle sales in India
(2001 – 2020)
Million Units
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Aggressive
Base Case
Consensus
Conservative
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Note: Figures for passenger vehicles includes numbers for light commercial vehicles like TATA Ace, TATA Magik, Suzuki Omnivan, Toyota Dyna, Mitsubishi Canter, etc
Note: Aggressive scenario – 14% CAGR upto 2015, after which market stabilizes (based on similar growth seen in the Chinese markets under similar macroeconomic conditions)
Base Scenario – 8% CAGR over 2009-2020; based on historical growth trends of the Indian car market
Conservative Scenario – 6% CAGR; car sales negatively impacted by economic downturn or unfavorable government policies (high interest rates, financing not easily accessible, etc)
Source: Global Insight database, Booz & Company Analysis
11
Germany Car Sales 2008 - 3.1 M Units
Italy Car Sales 2008 - 1.9 M Units
Spain Car Sales 2008 - 1.6 M Units
MAGNETTI MARELLI
13. India will soon be bigger than most other markets
Western Europe (1998) and India (1998)
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
174 147 141
0
Source: Global Insight Database, Booz & Company analysis
Booz & Company
DATE
India Auto Market.ppt Prepared for client name
12
SalesVolume
(inthousandsofunits)
3920
2,534 2,488
2,289
1,446
640 538 530
369 320 316 280 196 192
MAGNETTI MARELLI
14. India will soon be bigger than most other markets
Western Europe (2009) and India (2009)
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500 2,262 2,216
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
131 126 102 64
0
Source: Global Insight Database, Booz & Company analysis
13
SalesVolume
(inthousandsofunits)
4,035
2,678
2,360
1,071
581
451
349 294 247 236 203
MAGNETTI MARELLI
15. Much earlier than 2020, India will exceed the major EU markets
Western Europe (2015) and India (2015)
5,500
4,500
3,500
2,500
1,500
500
-500
Note: Forecasts for 2015
Source: Global Insight Database, Booz & Company analysis
Booz & Company
DATE
India Auto Market.ppt Prepared for client name
14
SalesVolume
(inthousandsofunits)
5,070
3,693
2,598 2,566 2,434
1,624
617 608
342 341 323 299 245 203 171 160 151
MAGNETTI MARELLI
16. India and China dwarf existing automotive markets such as
Germany or UK
Automotive sales volume by country
2030
PPootteennttiiaallffoorr IInnddiiaannmaarrkkeett
ttoo rreeaacchhrreevveennuueessooff $$115500--
$$220000 bbiilllliioonn
Note: 2030 sales and GDP projections are based on annual GDP growth rates projected by country per GS BRIC report
Source: Global Insight Database, March 2009; Goldman Sachs BRIC Report; Booz & Company analyses
15
Number of unit sales
> 10 M
3 M - 10 M
1 M - 3 M
< 1 M
MAGNETTI MARELLI
17. By 2030, India will be among the GLOBAL BIG 3
Light Passenger Vehicle Sales Projections - 2030
Million Units
Million units
42
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2.4 2.4
1.9
2
0
CHINA UNITED
STATES
INDIA BRAZIL RUSSIA GERMANY FRANCE UNITED
KINGDOM
ITALY SPAIN
Note: Figures for passenger vehicles includes numbers for light commercial vehicles like TATA Ace, TATA Magik, Suzuki Omnivan, Toyota Dyna, Mitsubishi Canter, etc
Source: Global Insight Database, Booz & Company analyses
16
40.7
17.6
11.7
7.8
5.2
3.7
2.9
MAGNETTI MARELLI
18. We expect not just a quantitative but also a qualitative change in
the market…
Indian household income & car sales distribution
2008
% of
households
% of total
car sales
60% 60%
50% 50%
40% 40%
30% 30%
20% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
A B C D E&F MPV SUV PUP OtherCar Segments
Income
distribution
< $1K $1K - $3K $3K - $5K $5K - $10K $10K - $15K $15K - $25K $25K - $35K $35K - $50K $50K - $75K > $75K
Source: Global Insight 2009, Booz & Company Analysis
17
Household income distribution
Distribution of car sales by segment
46%
15% 14%
8% 9%
4%4%
0% 0%
MAGNETTI MARELLI
19. The market
nation
of tomorrow will reflect increased prosperity of the
Indian household income & car sales distribution
2030
% of
households
% of total
car sales
40% 60%
50%
30%
40%
20% 30%
20%
10%
11%
10%
0%
0% 0%
A B C D E&F MPV SUV PUP OtherCar Segments
Income
distribution
< $1K $1K - $3K $3K - $5K $5K - $10K $10K - $15K $15K - $25K $25K - $35K $35K - $50K $50K - $75K > $75K
Source: Global Insight 2009, Booz & Company Analysis
18
Household income distribution
Distribution of car sales by segment
33%
20%
12% 12%
5%5%
2%
MAGNETTI MARELLI
20. Interestingly, India’s market is expected to overtake
sales by ~2035
Light Vehicle Sales Projections - US, China, India
the US auto
2004-2040, Thousand UnitsThousand Units
60,000
CHINA55,000
50,000
45,000
40,000
35,000
India’s automotive sales is
S
30,000
25,000
INDIA
UNITED STATES
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040
Note: Figures for passenger vehicles includes numbers for light commercial vehicles like TATA Ace, TATA Magik, Suzuki Omnivan, Toyota Dyna, Mitsubishi Canter, etc
Source: Global Insight Database, Booz & Company analyses
19
India’s automotive
Chinese automotive
expected to exceed U.
sales exceeds U.S
MAGNETTI MARELLI
21. • POWERTRAIN INDIA
• Focus on Automated Manual Transmission (AMT)
• Best drivability performance in AMT
technology
• Ability to offer a complete powertrain
system control (engine +
transmission)
• Most affordable two pedal
transmission demonstrated with the
success in India market
Oil tank
Power Unit
Mechatronic TCU
Hydraulic Control Module
Main Customers
MM is market leader in AMT (100% market share in 2015) with 8 applications for 2 clients). Volumes expected
to increase from 88K units in 2016 to 296K in 2020 covering over 23 application for 3 clients
AMT Localized Manufacturing for Maruti Suzuki, Tata
Motors and Mahindra.
* Maruti Suzuki sells its AMT to Suzuki Thailand and
Suzuki Indonesia for Celerio and Wagon-R platforms.
CELERIO
S101, U321, S103 or S102
ZEST NANO
YJC/ YSD-HB/
YSD-NB
ALTO K10 WAGON-R
DZIRE
KITE4/5/OSPREY
MAGNETTI MARELLI