"Adaptation to a changing climate in the Arab countries"; a Presentation by Ms. Dorte Verner on Climate Change in the Arab Region. It was presented in a workshop held by Amman Institute in cooperation with the League of Arab States and the World Bank on Monday 24 October 2011

1. Towards a
Regional Flagship Report
October, 2011
Dorte Verner, Climate Change Coordinator, Mena Region, The World Bank
(dverner@worldbank.org)

2.  CC is the development challenge of our
time, globally & in the Arab countries
 CC is a threat to poverty reduction and
economic growth
 May reverse many of the development gains
made in recent decades
 This calls for action
 We need to act now, act together, and act
differently (World Bank, 2010)

3. I. MENA Flagship report
I. Objective and Outputs
II. Process and Scope
III. Preliminary findings
IV. Next steps
3

4. Current and
projected
climate
variability and
Calls for climate
change change
adaptation to
reduce the
Increased Vulnerability negative impacts
Other stresses, and build climate
e.g.: resilient
Increase in communities
population,
urbanization
and education
in the Arab
countries

5.  Flagship Report:
 Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the Arab countries
that provides:
▪ Information on climate change and consequences
▪ Practical guidance on adaptation to climate change for
policymakers
 Documentary on the climate change impacts
and adaptation options in selected Arab
countries

16.  We address the Arab region as a whole
 In the IPCC reports the Arab world is split in 2 parts: North Africa
(Africa Ch) & Arabian Peninsula (Asia Ch)

17.  WB is producing the report in partnership with League of Arab
States & with inputs from Arab countries:
▪ researchers, institutions, and governments
 Chapters are drafted by a lead & contributing authors from the
region
▪ Summarize the literature in Arabic, French, and English
▪ Identify gaps and provide policy options
 Advisers from the region guide the process
 Talented young regional researchers are given an opportunity to
contribute through face-to-face and web-based interactions
 Arab governments are invited to comment and contribute

18. Chapter Tentative Title:
1 Climate Change and its Economic and Poverty Impacts
2 Ways Forward for Climatology in the Arab Region
3 Options to Reduce Water Stress
4 Improving Rural Livelihoods, Agriculture, and Food Security
5 Improving Urban Livelihoods & Living Conditions
6 Gendered Adaptation to a Changing Climate
7 Improving Health in a Changing Climate
8 A Country Model for Adaptation to a Changing Climate

19.  THE FOLLOWING SLIDES SHOW
PRELIMINARY FINDINGS AND MAY BE
CHANGED AS WE FINALIZE THE REPORT

20.  Climate change is happening now. In 2010 alone:
 the warmest year since records began in the late 1800s
▪ Kuwait (52.6 C), Iraq & Saudi Arabia (52.0 C), Qatar (50.4 C) & Sudan (49.7 )
 Arabian Sea experienced the 2nd strongest tropical
cyclone on record
▪ Cyclone Phet peaked at Category 4 strength;
▪ Oman: killing 44 people & wreaking $700 M in damage
 Coral reefs took the 2nd worse beating because of
record summer ocean water temp

21.  Over the recent decades throughout the region:
 Temperatures increased by 0.2-0.3 C per decade
 More frequent and intense heat waves
 Less, but more intense rainfall, causing increased
frequency of droughts and floods
 Loss of winter precipitation storage in snow mass,
inducing summer droughts & loss of winter snow and
potentially in tourism
 All threatening lives and crops & exposing new areas
to vector borne diseases

22.  Temperatures are likely to rise 0.3-0.4 C/decade
 This is 1.5 times faster than the global average
 Most of North Africa and the eastern
Mediterranean will become drier
 Possible increases in rainfall southern Sudan, Djibouti
and Yemen
 But greater variability and more extremes
everywhere

23.  Sea level rise
 threatening river deltas, coastal cities, wetlands, and
small island nations, i.e. Comoros and Bahrain
 with storm surges, salinized water, and flooding
 1.0 m sea level rise will affect 3.2% of the population in
MENA – 3 times more than the global average

24.  Climate adaptation strategies that people have
exploited throughout history may no longer be
available
 2200 BC, a temporary climate shift created 300
years of reduced rainfall and colder temperatures
that forced people to abandon their rainfed fields
in NE Syria
 Now only option is move to urban areas, e.g. for
the Bedu in the Arab countries

25.  The poor are the most vulnerable because of their
 high dependence on natural resources for their livelihoods
 poverty status and level of education
 geographic location and migrant status
 Climate change is superimposed on existing risks
and vulnerabilities faced by poor;
 Asset-poor Bedu in the arid areas of the Arabian Peninsula
have few resources and little capacity to adapt to the
changing climate
 Their limited capacity to cope with climate extremes renders
them vulnerable

26.  The economies of Arab countries are projected to be
more affected by CC as time passes
 through CC at the national level & CC occurring in other countries
 The estimation of potential economic impacts of CVC done by linking:
▪ the downscaling of selected GCMs,
▪ crop models
▪ global economic models, and
▪ subnational-level CGE with micro-simulation modeling
 Large near and long-term welfare reductions due to
CC; measured by household incomes (HI) while taking
into account autonomous adaptation, e.g.:
 By 2020, HI projected reduced: Syria $527 M & Yemen $314.4 M
 By 2050, HI projected reduced: Syria $3.4 B & Yemen $5.7 B

27.  The number of drought years has increased &
droughts are becoming more frequent
 Avg drought reduce economic growth (GDP) by ~1 pp
compared to non-drought year (CGE)
 Food security worsens significantly during droughts
and the poor are hit the hardest
▪ loss of capital, reduced incomes, and higher food prices
▪ poor farm households are most affected, followed by rural
nonfarm and urban households
▪ poverty levels increase by 0.3-1.4 pp

28.  Floods are becoming more frequent and induce heavy
economic losses & spikes in food insecurity and
hunger, e.g. in Yemen:
 High magnitude flooding leads to loss of crop land, animals,
and infrastructure, e.g. irrigation facilities and rural roads
 Total income loss over 2008-12: 180% of pre-flood
agricultural value added
 Number of hungry people spiked 15 percentage points

29.  Water scarcity is a constraint to socio-economic dev.
 Today there is already 16% renewable water supply gap
 met by overexploiting renewable water resources, depleting groundwater and
desalinating at high societal and environmental cost
 In 2050, the region will likely face a
 10% reduction in water run off due to climate change
 50% renewable water supply gap, hence water need to be e.g. imported; desalinated,
etc. Water, km3
Renewable Water
500
16% 37% 51% Resources
400 Total Water Demand
300 % of demand
unmet by
200
renewable
100 sources
0
year
2000-2009 2020-2030 2040-2050

30.  The report repeatedly finds Jordan is an example of best
practice regarding water resources management (Jordan
Valley, etc)
 Advanced grey water treatment and use
 Effective tariff schemes
 Support for private water suppliers
 Water law enforcement force

31.  But the water availability is one of the lowest in the world
 163 m3 per capita, only Gulf states and Libya has less
 Climate modeling suggests that the important winter
precipitation be cut in half by 2050 and temperatures will
be 2C higher
 Jordan has successfully adapted to increasing demand for
water in an arid environment until now, but an important
question is: can Jordan continue to adapt in a changing
climate?

32.  Agricultural output could decrease 20-40% by 2080 due to
high dependence on climate-sensitive agriculture
 80% of the water goes to agricultural production
 Increasing water scarcity will require more efficient or less
agricultural water consumption
 Climate resilient production calls for climate resilient crops,
animals, trees and fish species, incl. drought & salt tolerant ones
 Stresses to local food production systems calls for
increased import share to bridge the availability gap in
most countries
 Global food price rises, especially spikes, will decrease food
access for vulnerable households
=>Negative impact on rural livelihoods and incomes

33.  Arab cou has higher Urbanization rates, %
u.r. than rest of the 80
world 60
 Majority of the
37,000 km of Arab
40
coastline are 20
developed and low- 0
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
lying coastal zones Arab World World Yemen UAE Tunisia
 Without basic services, residents of informal settlements
have little capacity to adapt to environmental challenges
and CC hazards
 CC vulnerability needs to be considered up front when
making urban infrastructure decisions and investments

34.  CC impacts men and women differently
 Traditional gender roles e.g. imply that woman fetch water
 Data suggests women are among those least able to adapt
because they
 are often responsible for natural resource & hh management
 often have limited participation in the decision-making process
 => smart climate policy is an inclusive process where men &
women are empowered and take part in the decision making
Women and Men Engaged in Agriculture, % of Economically Active Population (2004)
90
80
70
60
50
40 Women
30
Men
20
10
0
Algeria Djibouti Egypt Jordan Lebanon Morocco Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia Yemen

35.  The Jordan is the first Arab country both to mainstream
gender in adaptation policy and
 The national women’s strategy incorporates awareness of
climate change and the linkages between gender, gender
equality, and adaptation.
 However, women make up a small proportion of total
landowners: 29 percent in Jordan (albeit higher than in all
other Arab countries)
 Jordan is beginning from a leadership role but faces
enormous problems. This calls for all youth, woman & men
being involved in the decision-making process

36.  Specifically malaria, dengue and other vector borne
and waterborne diseases
 The most vulnerable to climate related diseases are:
 internally displaced & those with low socio-economic
status
 residents of low lying areas and camps and slums
 those who work outdoors, e.g. in construction
 Healthcare systems in most Arab countries are
currently unable to provide well for the climate
related health needs due to lack of data

37.  An IPCC approach to drafting
 January 2011: First workshop
▪ Identified links between the topic areas
▪ Developed annotated outline of the background paper for each
chapter
 March 2011: “Zero” drafts provided by Lead Authors
▪ Posted on Internet for public review and comments
 June 2011: Second workshop: writing workshop
▪ Chapters were substantially improved
▪ Creation of mini-chapters on cross-cutting issues

38.  July 2011: Authors provided a well-formed draft
▪ This draft form the basis of the preparation of the current 1st
draft report
 October 2011: Draft to LAS & MoEs for comments
▪ The draft to be presented and discussed at the JCEDAR, LAS
▪ Consultations: Jordan, Lebanon, Tunisia, and UAE (TBC)
 December: Cop17 side-event, e.g. with Gov. of Lebanon
 January 2012: Third workshop:
▪ Incorporating comments provided by the governments, etc.
 February/ March 2012: Finalize the report
 April 2012: Launch Report, Movie, Portal, ...

39.  This consultation is an important
part of the process of producing the
report
 It is your chance to contribute and
comment on the current draft
 Equivalent to IPCC’s Government and
Expert Review stage
 The draft report will be up on the
internet (web address in the flyer)
 This is your change to let us know
what you think about the report
 Please read it and send us comments
and suggestions for improvements
 Thank you in advance.

40.  Italian Development Cooperation
 European Union
 International Fund for Agricultural Development
 League of Arab States
 World Bank’s MENA Region & Environment Unit

41. Thank You ‫ﺷﻛﺭﺍ‬