Overview of an interactive, online facility for investment scenario modeling. Links stock market companies to global business intelligence. Engages professional associations and universities in providing services to their members in a revenue-earning model

1. Providing
Risk Management via Strategic Foresight
facilities to the professions.
Wilson Fyffe
President
The Futurist Institute
Singapore
20 March 2012
Direct to the Future

2. The 5 “must knows”
1. Most organizations perform future studies before
making strategic investment choices
2. Future studies require intelligence on most likely future
events, combined into scenarios
3. With current technology, this intelligence can be online,
interactive, instantaneous, reducing dramatically the
time invested in making go/no-go decisions
4. Strategic investment choices involve members of most
Professional Associations & Universities
5. Professional Associations & Universities can earn
revenues from introducing their members to Risk
Management via Strategic Foresight.

3. Future Studies
 Based on Horizon Scanning to discover those
future events which must be considered in
developing a mental model of the future
 Employs the proven techniques of Failure Mode
Effects & Analysis (FMEA) to filter and rank
large numbers of future events

4. Scenarios
 A scenario is comprised of:
 The top 10 future events based on weighted impact
score on the business case under consideration
 Consequential relationships between future events
 Controllability by management of each future event
 A graphic depiction of risk based on impact and
controllability
 A single value for the scenario risk factor, which
changes as the assumptions change
 A simple English language narrative summarizing the
scenario, which can be automatically translated into
local language

5. The Scenario User Screen looks like this
Weighted
Impact Score
Consequential relationships
Controllability
Narrative

6. After round-table discussion, the management team has
decided that the outlook for climate change is improving
and will have a positive impact on the business case.
This choice is reflected immediately in the model.

7. Next Steps
 Visit the Futurist Institute website at:
 www.amplios.net
 Evaluate the procedures for:
 Free membership
 E-Learning for the Certificate of Understanding in
Strategic Foresight
 Certification via online quiz
 Payment, via Paypal, for certification (USD 100.00)
 Contact us regarding a partnership to provide
introduction of your members and revenue sharing.
 Contact details: Wilson Fyffe, wfyffe@amplios.net