1. Victoria’s Economic Development
A State of Cities
Presented by Brian Haratsis
Monday 13 October 2014
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014

2. Strategic Direction
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
+
Infrastructure
+
Economic Restructuring
+
Governance

3. Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
 Melbourne is the key
economic engine for
Victoria
 The key priority is to
generate
internationally
competitive service
sector

4. Eastern Seaboard Megalopolis
Brisbane
 Pop 2014: 2,293,400
 Pop 2061: 4,788,000
Sydney
 Pop 2014: 4,823,700
Melbourne  Pop 2061: 8,493,700
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
 Pop 2014: 4,422,700
 Pop 2061: 8,580,600
Canberra
 Pop 2014: 390,080
 Pop 2061: 740,900
Eastern Seaboard Major Cities Total
 Pop 2014: 11,929,900
 Pop 2061: 22,603,200

5. Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
A State of Cities

6. Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
Victoria V Singapore
 1:1 Size Comparison
 Singapore has the
population of Victoria
(5.4 Million), but would
fit more than five times
into Melbourne’s UGB

7. Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
Relative density
 In fact, Singapore fits twice into Mornington Peninsula (S)

8. Melbourne’s Future in a State of Cities
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
 Becoming a ‘Global City’
 Restructuring from ‘Australian’ settlement pattern to ‘Global’
settlement model.
 Recognises:
 Asia
 Global Services Sector
 Cities for Service Sector Exports Only
 Export ‘Heavy Lifting’ Done by Resources and Energy

9. A Forecast of 10 million Victorians
 The target of 7.7 million residents of Melbourne by 2051 is explicit
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
in PLAN Melbourne
 It is based on data from Victoria in Future’s 2012 release; In its the
most recent release, VIF revised this figure up to 7.8 million
people, a figure in accord with ABS B series forecasts.
 Reaching a target of 7.7 million people in Melbourne by 2051
would require a population increase between 86,000-94,000
people per year, or a growth rate of 2.1%, declining to 1.1% by
2051.
 VIF’s 2014 report forecasts consistent growth in Victoria’s regions
to 2051, when they will have a population of 2.2 million

10. Plan Melbourne… A State of Cities
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
Key facts and figures
 Melbourne’s population is expected to be between 7.6 and 8.5 million
people by 2050. At this point it will be more populous than Sydney.
 Recent bureau figures imply that Melbourne today is home to 4.35 million
people, and 27% bigger than the city it was at the start of 2000.
 Melbourne is forecast to grow by 90,000 persons and 27,800 dwellings per
annum to 2030.
 The proportion of people aged 65+ is expected to increase from 14% to
22% by 2050.

11. PLAN Melbourne | Initiatives
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014

12. PLAN Melbourne | Initiatives
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014

13. Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
PLAN Melbourne |
Infrastructure led
Employment Opportunities

14. PLAN Melbourne | Metropolitan Melbourne
Structure Plan
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014

15. PLAN Melbourne | Metropolitan Melbourne
Structure Plan (continued)
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014

16. Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
PLAN Melbourne | An
Expanded central City

17. Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
PLAN Melbourne |
Potential Urban Renewal
Precincts close to Rail

18. Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
Melbourne Rail Link

19. Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
Housing Demand
 A recent forecast by Macroplan Dimasi shows an increase in
expected dwelling growth from 30,000 to 40,000 dwellings per
annum, this is to be caused by the appearance of a new urban
renewal market
 High and medium density dwellings are expected to make up
about 60% of future dwelling demand to 2031 (approx. 24,000
dwellings p.a.)
 At 40,000 dwellings per annum, Melbourne will be producing
the same number of dwellings annually as New York and London

20. Economics – House Price Arbitrage
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
Mel ~$100,000 less

21. Economics – Job Growth
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
 Top 15 Employment Growth Regions, 2013-2018
18.9
18.9
18.6
18.1
16.5
16.2
16.1
15.4
34.8
32.9
32.9
31.4
29.4
34.1
42.5
Melbourne - West
Melbourne - South East
Perth - North West
Gold Coast
Melbourne - Inner
Perth - South East
Sydney - City and…
Sunshine Coast
Sydney - Inner South…
Brisbane Inner City
Brisbane - South
Ipswich
Sydney - Baulkham…
Sydney - Eastern…
0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00
Fitzroy
Employed Persons ('000)
351.1
309.6
281.7
253.2
247.1
229.0
183.0
142.1
141.0
118.6
117.4
110.1
98.8
80.7
58.7
58.0
43.2
37.1
13.5
0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0
Health Care and Social Assistance
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Professional, Scientific and…
Construction
Education and Training
Accommodation and Food Services
Public Administration and Safety
Transport, Postal and Warehousing
Wholesale Trade
Financial and Insurance Services
Other Services
Administrative and Support Services
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Arts and Recreation Services
Information Media and…
Rental, Hiring and Real Estate…
Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste…
Mining
Employed Persons ('000s)
Victoria,
Projected employment growth ('000) - five years to November 2018

22. Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
Economics

23. Demographics | population growth
Source: ABS Cat 3101
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014

24. Interstate Migration | Victoria
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
-4,000
-6,000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0-14 15-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+

25. Overseas Migration | Victoria
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
90,000
80,000
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
-10,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0-14 15-24 25-34 35-54 55-64 65+

26. The Future of Chinese Tourism:
Australia and Victoria have
Capacity and Strategic Issues
 Tourism Research Australia forecast in 2011 that the
number of outbound Chinese tourists would likely reach
100 million annually by 2020
 It is estimated by CLSA (Asia’s leading equity broker and
investment group) that this figure was reached in 2013
and that the annual number of outbound Chinese
tourists will be closer to 200 million by 2020
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014

27. Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
Chinese Visitors

28. The Significance of Chinese Tourism
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014

29. International Students
 International Student commencements have returned to pre-GFC/Indian
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
student crisis levels

30. Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
Manufacturing
 Victoria’s manufacturing sector
 295,000 employees (the State’s largest full-time employer)
 Over 25,000 manufacturing firms
 $110 billion in economic activity per annum
 $30.8 billion in gross value add (10.8% of GSP)
 $15.3 billion in exports
 $1.5 billion spent on research and development

31. Victorian Capital Expenditure
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
 Restructuring and Efficiency
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Mining Manufacturing Other (Selected Industries)
$M

32. Gross Value of Agricultural Commodities Produced 2012/13
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
Agriculture
Victoria remains one of the Nation’s largest agricultural producers
Source: ABS
Gross Value of Production ($M) Australia
New South
Wales Victoria Queensland
South
Australia
Western
Australia Tasmania
Northern
Territory
Australian
Capital
Territory
Crops 28,048.28 7,591.06 5,620.11 5,583.51 3,719.70 4,871.66 522.44 Not available Not available
Livestock slaughtered and other disposals 13,187.75 3,012.87 3,001.50 4,202.78 1,288.38 1,070.05 266.67 342.17 3.34
Livestock products 6,811.99 1,524.24 3,009.03 513.72 613.42 748.56 401.22 Not available Not available
Agriculture - Total 48,048.02 12,128.17 11,630.64 10,300.01 5,621.50 6,690.26 1,190.34 478.59 8.52

33. Health and Biomedical Research
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
 The Bio21 Cluster
 As well as being home to a number of health biotechnology organisations, Victoria’s North biotechnology
precinct is the hub of Victoria’s agricultural biotechnology activity. Located approximately 15km north of the
Melbourne CBD, Bundoora in the North precinct was recently named as one of Melbourne’s ten 'most
liveable suburbs' (Herald Sun newspaper, 2008).
 The North precinct is currently undergoing significant expansion with a number of developments in
progress. The AU$230 million AgriBio centre is a joint initiative between the Victorian Government, through
the Department of Primary Industries, and La Trobe University. It will be a world-class facility for agricultural
biosciences research and development.
 The North precinct is also home to the Global Headquarters of Siemens VDO.
 Monash Biotech Cluster
 Located 25 kilometres from Melbourne’s CBD (approximately 25 minutes drive), the South East
Biotechnology Precinct is home to Monash University, CSIRO, Southern Health (the largest public healthcare
provider in Victoria), the Monash Health Translation Precinct, the Australian Synchrotron and Melbourne’s
key pharmaceutical and biotechnology industries, including GlaxoSmithKline, Bristol Myers Squibb, Servier
and others.

34. Victorian Infrastructure Pipeline
Project Name Stage Value of Project
North Road Level Crossing Removal Committed within Forward Estimates
Burke Road Level Crossing Removal Committed within Forward Estimates
Princes Highway Duplication Project - Winchelsea to Colac Committed within Forward Estimates $250M - $500M
Blackburn Road Level Crossing Removal Committed within Forward Estimates
Main Road Level Crossing Removal Committed within Forward Estimates
Princes Highway East (Traralgon to Sale) Under Construction $100M - $250M
RAAF Base East Sale Redevelopment Approvals $100M - $250M
CGD Municipal Building Project Under Construction $50M - $100M
Springvale Road Grade Separation Project Under Construction $100M - $250M
Mitcham Road and Rooks Road Rail Grade Separation Project Under Construction $100M - $250M
Port of Melbourne Port Capacity Project Tender $1B - $5B
Koo Wee Rup Bypass Under Construction $50M - $100M
Ballarat to Stawell Duplication Committed within Forward Estimates $500M - $1B
Geelong Hospital - Major Upgrade Committed within Forward Estimates $50M - $100M
Geelong Ring Road - Stage 4C, Surf Coast Highway Connection Under Construction $50M - $100M
Construction of Ravenhall Prison and Additional Prison Beds Committed beyond Forward Estimates $500M - $1B
Monash Children's Hospital Committed within Forward Estimates
Royal Victorian Eye and Ear Hospital Committed within Forward Estimates
East West Link - Eastern Section Tender Greater than $5B
Dingley Bypass - Warrigal Road to Westall Road Tender $100M - $250M
Western Highway Duplication - Ballarat to Stawell (Section 2A - Beaufort to Buangor) Tender $100M - $250M
Port Rail Shuttle (Metropolitan Intermodal System) Committed within Forward Estimates $50M - $100M
Waurn Ponds Community Hospital Committed beyond Forward Estimates $50M - $100M
Cranbourne-Pakenham Rail Corridor Project Tender $1B - $5B
Calder Highway Interchange Committed within Forward Estimates $50M - $100M
Melbourne Park redevelopment - Stage 2 Committed within Forward Estimates $250M - $500M
Murray Basin Rail project Committed within Forward Estimates $100M - $250M
Shepparton Law Courts Planning $50M - $100M
East West Link - Western Section Committed within Forward Estimates Greater than $5B
Latrobe Regional Hospital redevelopment - stage 2A Planning $50M - $100M
Melbourne Rail Link (including Airport Rail Link) Committed within Forward Estimates Greater than $5B
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014

35. Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
Governance
 Metropolitan Planning Authority
 New planning authority inside the UGB and potentially
outside
 Unsolicited Bids
 Harnessing the private sector

36. Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
The Wish List…
 Cruise Ship Terminal
 East West Link
 High Speed Airport Rail
 Western Intermodal/ Kalkallo/ Inland Rail Link
 Inner Melbourne – 1 million population/ 1 million jobs
 Fishermans Bend/ Link to Bay/ Active Waterfront

37. The Wish List… (Cont.)
 New Tourism/ Cultural Asset ‘Asian Attraction’
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014
 Global Media Hub
 Global Headquarters for Food/Fibre
 Redirect Population Growth to regional Cities
 High Security Buildings/ Hub/ Conferencing
 Additional Global University

38. Thank you.
Victoria’s Economic Development| 13 October 2014